SCRAP or FIX?
by leadoff on Jun 1, 2010 12:30 PM EDT
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The big question with the Bucs from this point on this year is whether to fix this team or scrap it?
IMO, it can be fixed.
There is not much to scrap when you think about it, Aki will probably be let go, LaRoach has had the time, he is not the answer at 3rd base, Milledge and Church are not the answers in left field. Karstens and Burres are not the answers for the 4th and 5th pitchers on this team, Morton is a question mark. But for now Tabata would answer a couple of problems for the Pirates, he can bat leadoff, sending Cutch back to the the 3 spot and play a very good left field, not a lot of power, but his overall game makes him much more valuable in left. The 3 spot is a killer on this team right now. Until they bring Tabata up my suggestion would be to move Doumit into the 3 spot, two switch hitters in a row, plus bunching the best hitters on the team gives them a better chance to score some runs. Cutch, Walker, Doumit and Jones, do what you want with the rest of the order, just bat the pitcher ninth. Right now moving one of more of these guys will be necessary (Church, LaRoach, Aki, Milledge). Aki will surely be moved.
Clement would be a good project for a built team, but this team can't carry him without losing, the Yankees could, I would like to see him stay at 1st base because I think he will develop, even this year, he might hit 15 HRs. Don't forget for all intentional purposes he is a rookie, this is going to be his first full year. I would keep him on the major league roster.
Something else this team could do to improve, let the batting coach work with the pitchers instead of the 3rd base coach, these pitchers have to at least be able to make contact, what an advantage other teams have over the Bucs in the batting order with pitchers that can hit.
Bring Lincoln up, he may struggle, probably not worst than Morton did and they were willing to wait a long time for him to get it together, how much worst will Lincoln be. He is old enough, age is not a problem. Burres and Karstens are valuable, but they have to be used correctly.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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"There is not much to scrap when you think about it"
Which makes me wonder why it’s worth talking about. The guys who should be benched either have been or will be in fairly short order, and the batting order stuff is largely just unimportant window dressing.
We might see one or two players traded, but I don’t think that comes down to blowing things up or fixing them as much as opportunistic value-seeking.
Vlad you forget
some people think we are trying to win this year. I can see now we are purely trying to see what we have before the next wave of players arrive.
by eyeofhorus777 on Jun 1, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it would be more accurate to say...
…that we are trying to win this year, insofar as doing so does not materially interfere with seeing what we have before the next wave of players arrives.
The two goals are sometimes going to be operating at cross purposes.
Critical time of year!
Do we sell and go into experimental mode the rest of the year?
Benching, just to bench is not what I was looking for, replacing with permanent solutions is more of what I would like to see. Also I don’t want to see the massive selling at the trade deadline that we have had in the past. Management has to say this is the team and with this team we will add to it where it is necessary. Benching Milledge to put Church in does not cut it. Benching Aki and the bringing up of Walker for a steady gig at 2nd does cut it. Andy LaRoach has not been benched, but needs to be. First base needs to be addressed and it can be addressed with Jones there permanently. Trades are still possible, they could move LaRoach, Aki or Milledge.
"Andy LaRoach has not been benched, but needs to be."
On this point, we’re going to have to disagree. LaRoche has been a modest disappointment this year, but has still shown too much (despite his back problems) to lose his job.
Functionally, Iwamura is untradable right now, and moving LaRoche or Milledge right now would involve selling them at a substantial discount, which is usually a bad idea from a team-building perspective. If we see trades, it’s more likely to be Duke or Doumit, plus one or more of the veteran relievers (depending on what kinds of offers are out there for us).
"First base needs to be addressed and it can be addressed with Jones there permanently."
So, you’re dumping Pearce already?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I will just say...
LaRoche’s time is up. Dude is garbage. But it really doesn’t matter what you or I think. The facts are that Pedro will be called up within a month and playing 3B. LaRoche will be on the bench. Those are the facts.
Speculation about something that will happen in the future is not factual. Similarly, repeating that it is factual does not make it factual.
He means
Those are the facts of his speculation. It doesn’t matter what you think because that doesn’t change that facts of his speculation.
If that’s what he meant, sure. “I speculate future event X will happen” is indeed factual, but I don’t see anything on the comment’s face to suggest mspirate thinks that will happen, but rather a certainty it will happen.
Sorry about first sentence as I’m not sure if mspirate is a he or she. For some reason, I seem to recall this came up once before?
I thought Ms. Pirate would be a she but others have said definitely he.
Anyway, I was just joking about what he meant. He seemed to mean that his speculation should be treated as fact because his opinion, as the all knowing being, should be respected as if the future has already happened as he has proclaimed.
I just choose to take it the other way because it makes me believe in humanity more.
So it's not a fact that Pedro is going to play 3B and Andy is going to the bench?
Please tell me what’s going to happen then. Neil is playing 2B as long as he hits. Do the math, and unless Andy is moving to SS — which is laughable — there’s not a spot for him.
Andy has had his chances and hasn’t done anything with them. He’ll be next to Aki on the pine.
I think the “fact” that Pedro will be up in a month is the most debatable. I think that’s what the FO and all of us would like to happen if Pedro does very well this month and proves he deserves it.
There are other possibilities as well, though.
Walker could move to the outfield and Andy could move to second after practicing there for a bit.
Until it happens, it's speculation.
Potentially informed speculation, but still speculation. Not until it actually happens does it become fact.
I mean, Christ, either (or both) of them could be decapitated in a bus accident tomorrow. We don’t know. We can guess, and some of the guesses will be better than others, but we don’t really know.
Oh my gosh, seriously bro?
This is getting ridiculous. Where does all this love for Andy LaRoche come from? What has the guy ever done? Now look, I understand the scenario of us just giving up on him and him going omewhere else and breaking out (ala Jose Bautista). I realize none of ya’ll (nor do I, really) want that to happen. But LaRoche hasn’t even shown signs that he can hit for average OR any kind of power in the big leagues! NONE! And sure, he probably has a better glove than Alvarez right now, but he’s not a Gold Glove 3B either. While he has made some great plays at the hot corner this year, he has also botched some of the most routine of plays. Nobody is going to be perfect at 3B. Bautista at least put up double-digit HRs and showed that he could have the kind of year he’s having now.
Honestly, though, I don’t think LaRoche is ever going to do anything. He’s a decent big league player at best. I tried to tell ya’ll not jump on the Andy bandwagon after that hot week he had a month or so ago. Anybody can get hot for a week.
What LaRoche has done:
Become an average starting 3B in his first year with the job, at an age when further improvement is still likely.
After a minor league career of enormous success and distinction.
If you stack Pedro’s minor league performances up against LaRoche’s, LaRoche’s are/were much more impressive. Which, regardless of what you think of Pedro and LaRoche as individual players (or the one in relation to the other), is a sobering fact.
What Vlad said
Career minor league numbers:
Laroche: .295 .382 .517
Alvarez: .280 .370 .529
Career in AAA:
Laroche (167 games): .310 .412 .544
Alvarez (50 games): .261 .349 .511
Does it make a little more sense now as to why Laroche is liked this much? He did have some help from his home parks but there’s a reason Laroche was a key part of the return for Bay and was a top top prospect.
Make up your mind -
He’s a decent big league player at best.
Dude is garbage
Is he decent, or is he garbage?
BTW, your continual references to people as “garbage” is pretty insulting, and unnecessary. You do go to college, right? Let’s see some of that collegiate vocabulary.
I have faith in you, mspirate.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Is awful better?
LaRoche’s ceiling is decent, I think. His floor is well…awful. Look, the guy just isn’t a good major league player. Somebody has still yet to show me where he has hit for any kind of AVERAGE or POWER in the big leagues.
Replacement Level
According to Fangraphs, Andy has been even in WAR and -.2 RAR. I think we can admit he’s had a below expectation year, but he is still playing at a replacement level. It is not unreasonable to expect some improvement/regression in the direction of his minor league numbers. The point is, he has been replacement level until now, so why scrap him? Mgmt doesn;’t seem to think that Pedro is ready, so why not give ALaA some more PAs to figure out if he can cut it
by Wizard of Woz on Jun 2, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Runs are runs.
Runs from average and runs from home runs are worth exactly the same as runs from doubles and walks and defense.
You don’t get to write off the value provided by a player just because it doesn’t come in the particular shape that you’d prefer. At least, not if you want to make a fair and accurate assessment of that player.
Yes,
“awful” is better. IMO.
I understand your emotions getting involved in your opinions – hell, we’re ALL Pirate fans, and want them to do well. Personally, I think you are intelligent enough to be more eloquent in your descriptions.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 2, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Are we gonna let one play define his whole season?
He’s also booted a lot of routine plays. So what…
If you let one play define his whole season...
…it leads you to the same conclusion as letting his entire career define his whole season: That he’s an above-average defender, and much better with the glove than Pedro.
Why isn’t his arbitrary, selective endpoint as good as yours?
This is laughable. We’re talking about Pedro Alvarez, a future superstar, and Andy LaRoche. I’m done arguing. Alvarez is going to hit 30+ HR and drive in 90-100 runs a year. I’ll give up a little defense for that, thanks.
Not all players...
…who hit 30+ HR and drive in 90-100 runs are helping their team win. Look at 1983 Tony Armas. Or 2004 Tony Batista.
You can be as confident as you want, but you need to remember that Pedro succeeding isn’t a fait accompli. There was a time, not all that long ago, when Andy LaRoche was a “future superstar”, too.
Like you always say...
there are always exceptions to the rule. But in almost every situation, having a guy hit 30+ bombs and driving in nearly 100 runs is going to help any team win more games.
Look at Albert Pujols. It may not be fair that I pick the best player (I believe) in the game, but the Cardinals don’t win nearly as many games over the past five or six years without him.
You're right.
I don’t think Pujols is a fair comp. If you compare them by ages, Pujols was up and contributing in the majors two years before Pedro played his first minor league game. And Pujols displayed much better control of the strike zone than Pedro: a 46/47 K/BB in 544 PA in his only minor league season.
If you want to make comparisons, you need to find players who are truly comparable. And if you do that for Pedro, you find some guys who were successful, and some guys who were not.
I think you forget at times that I want Pedro to succeed just as much as you do. But where you seem content to trust that things will all work out in the end regardless of what we do, I’m more of a worrier. I always like to have contingency plans and look for every little edge in pursuing my goal. So if handling Pedro one way instead of another gives us even a 1% better chance of him being a success rather than a failure, I’m going to keep beating my dead horse until it’s ground into dust.
11 rbi's
if he can knock in runs we may win 5-1
RBI are a decent measure of the value...
…provided by the guys getting on base in front of the hitter who accumulates them. They don’t actually tell you anything of value about the hitter who collects them, though.
Thank you
I absolutely hate RBI as a measure of a player’s offensive production. It just means he bats in good situations
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Small sample size alert...
Andy LaRoche…any time a runner is on 3B…1 for 9 with 3 rbi.
Andy LaRoche…any time a runner is on 2B…7 for 24 with 4 rbi.
All AB with runners in scoring position…8 for 28 with 6 rbi.
Remember that a few of those at bats had runners on both 2B and 3B…which is why they don’t add up.
Because I wondered...
…and thus somebody else probably will, too:
That’s a .111 with a man on third, a .292 with a man on second, and a .286 with any RISP.
Probably doesn’t tell us much one way or the other. He’s hitting .250 in all situations at this point in 2010, so that kind of splits the wickets down the middle.
I dont understand this
Talk of Trading LaRoche and or Milledge … if Milledge loses his job whats wrong with keeping him as the 4th OF? id rather have him there then Church and think he would do a good job in that role until he gets a chance to prove himself again… and LaRoche too if he gets bench he could take the place of a Bobby Crosby and be the primary backup at 3B and 2B and even 1B…Milledge and LaRoche are under team control for a while and would cost the team less to have them as bench players and maybe have a chance again to start then trade them away right now…id rather see Crosby or Church go before LaRoche or Milledge
If you keep LaRoche as a backup...
…(which is wasteful and sub-optimal, IMO), I think he’s more likely to push Young off the roster. After all, even at his worst he’s still at least as good a hitter as Young, and unlike Young he can actually play the infield without embarrassing himself.
If this was a reply to me, I meant that I only agree with the part that Milledge should be kept as a 4th OF.
I think you’re right DY is destined to go. Probably in the next wave of call ups. Who else goes when Tabata and Pearce come up? If Alavarez comes up, then Aki, DY and Church will all have to be gone most likely.
I was replying to you...
…insofar as my position was building on your (correct, IMO) contention that LaRoche couldn’t fill Crosby’s role.
Sorry if that was unclear.
hee!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Because they didn’t fix in the offseason, they should scrap and do another selloff for whatever is left ASAP.
That means trading most of the somewhat productive group of Doumit, Duke, Maholm, Cedeno, and possibly Jones. GFJ is a borderline trade candidate since he’s somewhat productive and has a couple cheap years left. But would you take him or a better shot at the #1 pick next year? I’d probably keep Jones, but there’s an argument for dealing him too.
Exactly - there's no much to scrap.
However, there is Doumit and Duke.
As far as trading Duke, I just don’t see it happening because the pitching would be so incredibly hold-your-nose bad that the universe might implode or at least throw the axis of the earth off kilter and then Will Smith would somehow be the only person left alive.
Trading Doumit might happen, but as poor as his defense has been this year, his offense has been quite nice, and unless Pedro comes up and starts pelting the river with baseballs, the run support for the pitchers might actually be in the negative numbers. Not to mention, I have a hard time seeing the return for Doumit as something substantial enough to warrant it until he proves he can last a whole season without a DL trip.
I highly disagree with your assessment of who would more easily carry a learning player like Clement. The Yankees’ margin of error is smaller than the Pirates, because the stakes are bigger. Without Teixeira producing as he did, the Yankees would not have won the WS. If Clement were playing instead, they don’t win it. That’s more important than the Pirates winning 5 more games this season.
The fix for the team offensively may be coming in the form of Pearce and Tabata and possibly Alvarez. Some combination of these guys could very well make things better.
The fix for the pitching is nowhere to be seen, however. The best we can hope for is that Lincoln performs well and Morton somehow finds himself. Looks like the Bucs are picking up Dana Eveland off waivers, but waiver pickups are always hit and miss. Mostly miss.
3 year arbitration
his third year of arbitration looming should get him out of town by the trade deadline. remember $$$$ before fans feelings.
Making decisions based on people's feelings...
…rather than analyses that measure and predict actual performance is how all the greatest organizations came to be great, after all.
Just think how great our team would be this year if we’d said “Damn the profits! Full steam ahead!” and paid millions of dollars for fan favorites like Nady and Freddy and Jack Wilson. We’d be the ’27 Yanks reincarnated!
I think wishiewashie is an Intro to Pirate Ignorants professor in disguise
making sure we’re fresh on what to say to people who really believe baseball transactions should be done due to fan ‘feelings’.
What should hopefully be prioritized over fans' feelings is making the team better.
It’s possible that Duke will be traded, but not because the Pirates don’t want to pay his 3rd year arbitration money. The Pirates almost certainly will pay Maholm’s contract next year, and it is essentially the same or more than Duke will get in arb next year.
The question is what can be received in a trade for Duke, and is that better than Duke for us next year? I don’t think it will be.
by MarkInDallas on Jun 1, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hope everyone is comfortable with the current roster.
Until trades are made…if any signficant ones are made…our current roster is what JR has to work with. It’s becoming fairly clear that the “young guns” won’t be here before Labor Day. If any of the 3 (Pedro, Tabata and Lincoln) gets a call before then, it will be Tabata, if management gets tired of trotting Church and/or Milledge out every day.
Good.
“Trotting Milledge out every day” until Tabata comes up is exactly what they should be doing, so that we don’t end up in an ambiguous fish-or-cut-bait situation with him this offseason.
Problem being...
it’s been a whole lot more Church and a whole lot less Milledge recently.
Well, yeah.
That’s a legitimate complaint. But it’s not one that’s being driven by roster considerations (unless they’re playing Church to showcase him for a trade – which is unlikely to work IMO, but who knows?).
And with Greg Brown’s mention that Doumit took a lot of work pregame at 1B today…who knows what the hell the Pirates are thinking when it comes to 1B and OF??
hey i dont have a problem moving doumit to 1B if its long term, he isnt ever going to demand alot of money because i dont see him hitting more than 15-20HRs in a season and it would keep us an extra switch hitter in the lineup. and just for good measures, it would be a fairly good PR move since a majority of the fans know who doumit is and know he has been around for a while.
see above
re: “fan’s feelings.”
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Could mean a lot of different things.
Maybe they’re talking trade with a team that sees Doumit as an occasional (or more than occasional) 1B, and they want to show him off there. Maybe they’re thinking about sending Clement down, and want to know whether Doumit could handle 1B once in a while if need be. Maybe they want to give Doumit a start a week at 1B to help save his legs for later in the season. Maybe they’re thinking about calling up Kratz, and want to give Doumit a start a week at 1B to create extra PT for the backup catchers if we’re going to carry three on the 25-man. Maybe they’re frustrated with Doumit’s defense behind the plate this year, and they’re thinking about a full-time move. Maybe Doumit got bored during workouts and figured, “Screw it, I’ll try something different today.”
Have to wait and see how it shakes out.
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