Pirates' Rotation Struggling As Maholm Scuffles And Duke Hits DL
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 24, 2010 1:22 AM EDT
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PrintIf the Pirates are going to make it through the next couple of weeks without another 12-game losing streak, they need to avoid stuff like tonight's game, in which Paul Maholm allowed seven runs and didn't record an out in the second inning. He'd been their most reliable starter in a rotation that badly needed reliability, what with all the appearances by Charlie Morton and Dan McCutchen and Dana Eveland and Brian Burres. On top of that, we're going to be seeing even more of (at least one of) those guys, because Zach Duke just went on the DL and will miss his next couple of starts. And it's not even like some of the guys I actually want in the rotation, like Ross Ohlendorf and Brad Lincoln, have been all that good.
There was more bad news yesterday that was unrelated to the Bucs' problems in the majors - Tony Sanchez is having on his broken jaw, which doesn't sound like a big deal (since what does his jaw have to do with playing baseball, really?), except the jaw will have to be wired shut, which means he's going to have a hard time eating enough solid food to stay in shape. Neal Huntington suggests Sanchez could be done for the year, which unfortunately seems pretty likely given that it's late June and the minor league season ends in early September. This is awful news, particularly given the inordinate number of injuries Pirates prospects have suffered this year. This is what Arizona Fall League assignments are for, so hopefully Sanchez will be healthy enough to play there in October.
There actually was some good news yesterday, in the minors - Bryan Morris had a nice start for Altoona, Jeff Locke pitched well for Bradenton, and Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson combined to pitch the whole nine innings for the GCL Pirates and they were excellent, tossing a three-hitter between them. Like so many Bucs prospects, Cain and Stevenson have spent much of the year on the shelf with injuries, but it's likely that neither of them were going to start the year in a full season league anyway, so at this point, it looks like no harm, no foul. The only discouraging news today came from State College, where the Spikes allowed 13 runs. Zack Von Rosenberg started the game, but fortunately wasn't a big part of the damage - he pitched four innings and allowed three runs, two earned.
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Gloom, despair and agony on me
Deep dark depression, excessive misery.
— Buck Owens, Roy Clarke, Grandpa Jones, Junior Samples et al, 1969-71
I was at the spikes game last night
Let me just say that it was ugly! 7 errors(most on very routine infield plays) and only 5 hits. Very sloppy baseball. ZVR got hit kinda hard in his first couple of innings. I am really not knowledgable enough to know how much velocity you can expect from a kid his age but his fastball was topping out at about 90. I think he only had 1 or 2 K’s.
Is velocity something that kids pick up in their early 20’s after they have matured a bit?
Strasburg
Totally not the right comp here, but Strasburg was throwing at around 90 when he was ZVRs age. Their body types are not terribly similar, but there is proof (however little) that you can in fact fill out a projection…again, NOT suggesting ZVR will = Strasburg.
by SpacePirate on Jun 24, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone know why...
…Jorge Bishop played for the GCL team yesterday, and not the FSL team?
Suppose to be in GCL
But injuries forced him to FSL until replacement could be found. You do not want somene from DSL going to FSL at 19 years old.
Makes sense
A+ would have been an extremely aggressive assignment.
by element1286 on Jun 24, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
They used Gift earlier this year for same reason
The proximity of the 2 teams is why instead of moving Cunningham or someone from elsewhere. With Holt being out you could see more part time replacements if more injuries occur.
Our team should at least be more competitive than this
Its not like we have 5 unproven starters in our rotation. Until last night Maholm (way to ruin a trade to the Rangers buddy) has been good but NOBODY else has at least performed to last years awfulness, let alone improved.
Thats what sucks about this year is that guys we think are ok and getting better are now worse. Only Meek, Hanrahan, Cutch and Jones can really say they have had as good or better year than last. Doumit was hurt but is still pretty mediocre.
I expect the rookies and young guys to struggle but the vets like Aki, Church, Laroche, Milledge, Duke, Ohlendorf etc coming out and just stinking up the place really makes this year really suck more than I thought it would.
Veterans aren't actually any less risky then rookies.
People just tend to assume that they are, for some reason.
Vets have normally a MLB track record you can go by
you expect them to play at their normal levels but ours seem to have regressed.
by eyeofhorus777 on Jun 24, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Non-vets have a track record, too.
Translated stats from the upper minors are just as reliable a predictive tool as past major league performance.
The difference is that when a rookie unexpectedly tanks, it’s because he’s a AAAA player who can’t be trusted, whereas when a ML veteran unexpectedly tanks, it’s a fluke that couldnt’ have been predicted. Or so the narrative often goes, anyway.
Disagree with totatly translatable
if they were then why do so many players perform differently from those projections?
I have been studying human behavoir with statistics all my work life and it has taught me that when trying to apply stats to humans its so complex to try and make predictions that are accurate that alot of time generic trend data is just as reliable as complex statistical models.
Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect human beings all in different and unpredictable ways that make it hard to generate accurate statistical models.
by eyeofhorus777 on Jun 25, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do so many veterans...
…also perform differently than their projections? Players are flaky. They get hurt, they get distracted, they train harder than usual or slack off, they learn a new technique or lose a step, etc.
I’m not saying that properly translated and contextualized minor league performance is bulletproof as a predictive tool. I’m just saying that it’s of about the same reliability as past major league performance. Both are flawed (but useful) tools.
Dotel
has been ok for the most part (when we could get the ball to him)
by BlindSquirrel on Jun 24, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Eveland DFA'd
The whole Eveland thing was just bizarre. NH deserves a kick in the nuts for this one.
the idea is just
a long reliever that can make spot starts for a minor league bullpen arm but…its not like we already didnt have guys that can fill this role, burres, carrasco, karstens
Not unexpected i don't think
When he picked him up, I was kinda scratching my head a bit. But there are times I feel like NH thinks that some of these in-between players are like a reclamation project and perhaps the minor leagues can fix the pitching problems. (i.e. Meek, Veal – though to be honest these both came out of other teams minors via Rule 5 draft). So far, of the pitchers we’ve obtained via trade or free agency, I haven’t seen one go down and come back up with a better grasp of pitching or control in my opinion aside from Meek and perhaps Veal.
Again the one caveat is that perhaps talent is the major factor in all this.
This Eveland trade just stunk from day 1...
I hated it then and I hate it even more now. This wan’t Neal’s finest accomplishment! Between this, the Aki trade (no physical), the insistence in batting Aki leadoff (DH said this was a Neal call and not a JR call), and now with the possibility of him being the reason we keep running Church out there everyday, it’s safe to say that Neal has had better seasons. Now the real test will come when Pearce finally comes off the DL. Langosh insinuated that they “could” leave him in AAA to get regular at bats. Now I don’t see that as the likeliest outcome but should it happen I will really have to question what is going through Neal’s head. It’s one thing to keep a player down because you want to see what players like Laroche, Clement, Milledge, etc. will do. It’s quite another to squash a deserving player who was having success at the major league level for a player like Church who has been worse offensively than Aki. I have no idea what kind of trade value NH thinks Church will develop between now and the deadline so I really don’t understand why he is playing so much. Now if it isn’t Neal and the real culprit is Russell, that may finally tip the scale for me and I will join all the others in the Russell must go crowd.
Is it time to fire Joe Kerrigan?
Or is it a matter of the talent level being to low for any pitching coach to look good? I personally believe that Ohlendorf, Duke, Maholm and Morton have the potential to be a half decent rotation, and they all (well maybe not Maholm up until last night) look like bums. Opinions?
That thought
has crossed my mind. He can’t make up for the offensive or defensive deficiencies, but I’m still waiting for one of our arms to show improvement.
It's true
there’s only so much a coach can do before the players have to step up. But all of these guys have regressed over teh past year. That points to bad coaching.
In the case of Ohlendorf...
…I don’t think it’s bad coaching. Just a guy returning to his expected level of performance, after a bit of a fluke season.
The defense has to carry some of the load here.
We have a lot of pitchers who live and die by putting balls in play. If the guys behind them can’t field, they’re going to give up a ton of hits.
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