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Pedro Alvarez: No Reason To Freak Out Yet

A weird tweet from the usually-sensible Jerry Crasnick:

Pedro Alvarez: 6-for-41 with 19 strikeouts. How buried does he have to get before Pirates send him back to Indy?

Um... a lot more buried? There are two issues here: first, Alvarez is the kind of player who needs to adjust upon promotion to a new level, and second, the sample size here isn't really significant enough to worry about. It's been 14 games; you don't promote one of the top prospects in baseball only to send him back to the minors when you don't like what you see after 14 games.

While Alvarez's struggles to start his major league career aren't what you'd call good news, they weren't exactly unpredictable either. His physical gifts are impressive, but he's not the most natural talent in the world. He'll probably always rack up strikeouts, and he'll probably always need to make little adjustments to keep his batting average in good shape. He also has a history of struggling a little bit at his first exposure at a new level - he had a bit of trouble at Lynchburg last year and at the beginning of this season at Indianapolis. While his major league numbers are weaker than they were when he started at Lynchburg and Indianapolis, again - it's only 14 games, and a star could struggle like he has over 14 games and it would hardly register. 

In short, let's leave Pedro alone for now, shall we? If he's still not hitting after 200 at bats, then maybe we'll really have something to be concerned about, but for now, he needs time. I'm not sure what good it would do to send him back now anyway - we already know he can rock Class AAA pitching. The best way for him to adjust to the difference in competition, if in fact that's a problem, is to let him keep trying.

It's funny that all this would come out right before the best start of Brad Lincoln's young career, by the way. Not that Lincoln is anywhere near as promising as Pedro, or that his success today was really sustainable, but rookies can surprise you if you have the good sense to just let them keep playing.

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yeah what Charlie said

I will worry what he goes 0-100 with 50 ks, ok maybe not that bad but if goes 0-20 with 10ks I will beging to worry a little bit

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"You Don't mess with the USA" Landon Donavan
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Jun 30, 2010 6:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I wonder if Crasnick meant...

how long before the pirate FO overreacts and sends Alvarez down. Just an alternative theory. That would of course suggest JC has a negative opinion on NH/FC and I don’t know about that because I won’t pay for ESPN.

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by itkonlyyou195 on Jul 23, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

worried

not catching up with very many fast-balls, not hitting breaking stuff at all and really not many hard hit ball period. His MO is to start off slow at every level and come on like gang busters, but he should start going to right field with authority and work from there. Also lets shake things up and bat him 5th or 4th vs right-handers.

by wishiewashie on Jun 30, 2010 6:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I could be wrong...

but he just looks a bit slow at the plate, like he’s thinking too much instead of just relying on this talent. Most of his hits are going the opposite direction, like he’s late, and he really hasnt hit a ball with any real authority. I think all it is going to take is a pitcher making he mistake that he turns on, and he gets his confidence again and he will be fine.

by goodtymes31 on Jun 30, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he is tired

from stepping out and taking a practice swing after every pitch.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on Jun 30, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

But if the Pirates don’t send him down ASAP, they might not make the playoffs!

by Adam Reynolds on Jun 30, 2010 7:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Playoffs? Are you kidding me? Playoffs?

by Designated Hitter on Jun 30, 2010 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

they are who we thought they are! and we let ’em off the hook…

by C Shint on Jun 30, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m a man! I’m 40!

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 1, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

We’re talkin’ about practice…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jul 1, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Our offense can’t do diddley poo!

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 1, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never see a bunch of defensemen soff like dis.

I’m so disappoint about lots of guy. Very disappoint. Because dey don’t care. Tonight it looks like mans against boys.

by matskralc on Jul 2, 2010 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

You play. To win. The game.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 2, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'm willing to bet

that the difference in difficulty between major league pitching and triple A pitching is bigger than that of two other minor league levels. So, to me, it’s reasonable to believe that his struggles might be deeper and last longer up here than we saw occur at the other levels. I’m willing to give him until september before I get too concerned.

(hope that first sentence makes sense)

by theatrain on Jun 30, 2010 7:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I was going to ask this as a serious question at some point

That is, when would be a good time to start thinking about sending him back down if he continued to strike out at this rate and wasn’t putting up any good rate stats?

I think maybe after 200 ABs (PAs?) like Charlie said might be a good time. But right now I’m not really worried.

by Schide on Jun 30, 2010 8:17 PM EDT reply actions  

i was hoping they would leave him down a little longer....

but now that he’s here, I’d prefer he’s given time to make the necessary adjustments at the ML level. He’s shown an ability to adapt to each level after slow starts and he’s not exactly costing us a pennant run.

by McGreal on Jun 30, 2010 9:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Unless it becomes obvious that Pedro needs to regroup

…in Indianapolis, then the only thing the Pirates need to do with him is to put his name in the lineup 9 out of every 10 games.

Hell, given the worrying and kvetching, one would think Pirate wins in 2010 were important. About the only significance attributable to every Pirate win is that it makes it much harder for the Pirates to gain the No. 1 pick in the 2011 Draft.

What’s that old Pink Floyd lyric:

“leave the kids alone.”

Steve Z

by steve_z on Jun 30, 2010 9:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I’ve been concerned about his contact rate since Day One, but there’s no point in sending him back to the minors now. The slow start was expected. Unless his average remains comically low, I’d keep him up for the rest of the season. Things will hopefully click for him at some point, at least from a power perspective. Don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high average.

by bolton on Jun 30, 2010 9:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe give him a day off sometime soon, but he needs to stay up here and take his licks. This was to be expected.

by Designated Hitter on Jun 30, 2010 9:49 PM EDT reply actions  

This is a team growing together – sit back and enjoy it.

Tom Specht

by weltytowngang on Jun 30, 2010 9:49 PM EDT reply actions  

i agree,

i think they will continue to improve.

by karreemofwheat on Jul 1, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ill say this again

Someone (Don Long) needs to address the fact that Pedro pulls his head on every single swing. You wont hit the ball when your looking down the first baseline everytime. “see the ball, hit the ball” or “watch the ball hit the bat”, both involve keeping focus on the baseball, you know the thing your suppose to make contact with

by C Shint on Jun 30, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

then why does he do it every time then

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"You Don't mess with the USA" Landon Donavan
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Jun 30, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

that

seems to be the million dollar question eh?

by C Shint on Jun 30, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

or the however much we are paying him question

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"You Don't mess with the USA" Landon Donavan
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Jul 1, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure why it's even in question?

14 games is no where long enough to evaluate a player. With his credentials he should get at least 3 months to fail, before anyone should begin to wonder what’s wrong.

Even then I don’t think worrying is necessary. Eventually he’ll be everything everyone thought he’d be, and maybe even the Pirate savior as some people see him.

by Pensburgh Pirates on Jun 30, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

because people like Bob Smizik who were calling for him to be called up are now freaking out because he is not producing

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"You Don't mess with the USA" Landon Donavan
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Jun 30, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

This was my thought

This really isn’t even a discussion right now. And to second what Charlie said in his post, it is really strange that Jerry Crasnick stirred this up.

by DITO on Jul 1, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe its a shot at the FO?

Maybe Crasnick is just venting frustration about how the team is playing now, by openly critisizing Alvarez, NH’s first #1. Maybe this is just the tip of Crasnick’s iceberg. He’s got much more to say but he’s toned it down with this quip?

by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 1, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

no way can you send him back down...

He has to stay in Pittsburgh, and learn on the job. He’ll be fine; the strikeouts are alarming, but we all expected it. Once he starts driving in runs we’ll all be ok with all the strikeouts.

I remember Aramis Ramirez’ start to his career was alarming as well. He ended up striking out 72 times in 275 ABs in his first year…

by FusilliJerry88 on Jun 30, 2010 10:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with your general premise, but . . .

Aram is a bad comparison because he was 19-20 at the time and Pedro is 23. Thus, Pedro is expected to be significantly closer to his potential. That said, it is too early, and lot’s of young guys struggle their first few weeks/motnhs.

by Scranton on Jul 1, 2010 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Minors

Alverez and Lincoln should still be in AAA. Alverez did NOT dominate AAA pitching and Lincoln is still “developing” his change-up in order to get left handed hitters out. Sounds like they should both be in AAA until ripe for a major league promotion.

Yeah, the Succo’s aren’t going anywhere and they can develop here, but why risk the chance??? I

by Chucksberries on Jun 30, 2010 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

We know. We all said they should have stayed in AAA.

This is sort of a remark to those whom are freaking out about the initial lack of production — those being the same people screaming for their promotions since the beginning of the year.

by ryebr3ad on Jun 30, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

What specifically are they risking by promoting Pedro? Nothing. He needs to adjust to MLB pitching, and hopefully by 2012 he will be in a groove.

by Pghfan987 on Jul 2, 2010 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not time to worry yet. It takes time to develop at the major league level. Look at Mike Schmidt’s rookie year; he hit something like 170, then went on to become one of the greatest third basemen of all time. I don’t think Pedro has that kind of future, but he has potential to become a home run hitter who doesn’t hit for too high of an average. And that will be fine with me.

Or look at the Roberto Clemente, a player with a far more contact-oriented swing than Pedro’s. His first year (1955) he hit 255 in 474 at bats. Aside from 1956, when he hit 311, his next years were 253 in ’57; 289 in ’58; 296 in ’59 and finally 314 in ’60. Then, in his seventh year, 1961, he hit 351 and continued on a tear through the 60s, winning the first of his four batting titles.

As for pedro, he probably should have stayed down for longer. But, now that he is up, I hope the Pirates put him in the lineup all the time and let him take his lumps. The purpose of this year is to get these guys playing. The team isnt going anywhere.

by AJF67 on Jul 1, 2010 12:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Good thing for Pedro

He has a tireless worker for a hitting coach like Don Long.
Look how these other hitters on the Pirates have improved under his guidance and instruction.
I would use examples of the players who actually have gotten better under Long, but it might take me a while to find 1, and i mean 1.
This coaching staff is the worst. They all need to move on.

"Being Fat, Drunk & Stupid is no way to go through life, young man", Dean Wormer.

by tee bone on Jul 1, 2010 1:12 AM EDT reply actions  

too many young guys

it is tough when you have no real leadership on the bench, Guys have no one to go to to settle them down. Alvarez and Clement have proven this. Tabata coming back down to earth after a fast start.

Walker seemed to avoid this, lets hope the injury doesnt cloud his hitting eye

by Rickfansince76 on Jul 1, 2010 8:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Help on the Way!!

I think Dougie Alphabits is available, so maybe they can sign him, then trade for David Munchstein and fill their veteranosity quota, because heaven knows, that’s the problem with this team: not enough mediocre veterans to “settle them down.”

by Bishop1973 on Jul 1, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Walker misses the Philly series, that is another strike against the Fo for not putting him on the Dl in the first place. The team is currently 2 men short on the roster, and seem to be playing the waiting game with these guys.
Dl someone, and bring up a healthy body so Cedeno does not have to see the field.
As for Pedro, looks to me he stands a little too far away from the plate, and has no chance at pitches on the outside corner.
And i agree with most, you can not send him back down after 50 or so ab’s. He is the 3b of this team, so let him figure it out.
Hopefully starting tonight, they will lose that picture of him staring at Stargell, when it’s his turn to bat.
As the great Russell says" he needs to just relax".
Those comparisons of him to Stargell are not helping the situation.
Still waiting for him to really T one up and pop one about 450 feet. I know it’s coming, but when??.

"Being Fat, Drunk & Stupid is no way to go through life, young man", Dean Wormer.

by tee bone on Jul 1, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions  

tee bone

Sorry about stealing your idea about Pedro standing to far away. I was in the posting zone I neglected to read any posts. My bad.

by buco4life on Jul 1, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Opinion

Does anyone think he will have to make the same adjustment Ryan Howard made this year? As in moving closer to the plate. I feel like he barely gets into the box and it looks impossible for him to hit an outside fastball. Pitchers will throw 2 outside fastballs and a hook and he will most likely go down. I am sure he will adjust, but this is just my opinion/observation.

by buco4life on Jul 1, 2010 10:23 AM EDT reply actions  

eh

he can def make contact on the outside part of the plate, he seems to be taking everything the opposite way, my observation is even simplier, he needs to stop pulling his head. it looks like everytime he misses the ball he is pulling his head. im not sure how many others notice it but i do every at bat

by C Shint on Jul 1, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Glad you said that, I saw it too.

by chodan11 on Jul 1, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

he’s been in the big leagues for about two weeks, there’s no way he’s going to adjust to big league pitching right away. give him some time. yeah, it may take all season, but let’s talk this time next season and see how he’s doing.

by Meghan P on Jul 1, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Even Longoria struck out in 24% of plate appearances in his first month and a half of baseball at the Major League level. I think the Rays were well served not to send him back down.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 1, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

kinda slight difference

between 24% and 47%… although i m not advocating sending him down, in any case.

by BurgherKing on Jul 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pedro batting 2nd tonight.

And we can assume Cedeno is still in “casa de perro”. Crosby starting at SS, LaRoche at 2B.

by Thunder on Jul 1, 2010 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

La mejor manera para él de salir de la casa del perro es dejar de tirarle a romper las pelotas y jugar mejor defensa.

by chodan11 on Jul 1, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Michael Main going to the Giants in the Molina deal

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?

We should have offered Doumit and his salary this year and the next year for Main. Molina for Main?? What in the whole wide world?

by BurgherKing on Jul 1, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I don't get it

Is fatass Bengie Molina even that much of an upgrade over what the Ragers have now? Not by the numbers, he isn’t. Maybe he’s got extra grittiness and veteranosity that can’t be masured.

by maguro on Jul 1, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

he's no upgrade

in any way. Jeebus, I cant believe it! Sabean pulled that off! :-o

by BurgherKing on Jul 1, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sort of like Blake for Santama with the Indians.

by ryebr3ad on Jul 1, 2010 7:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

blake had value

between 06-09, he tallied about 10 WAR. Given that he was traded in 2008, he had decent value. of course, Santana may have turned out even better in the long run, but its still understandable if you give him up for 2 years of 2.5WAR each

by BurgherKing on Jul 1, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

molina

i d be surprised if he clears 1.5 WAR this year

by BurgherKing on Jul 1, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bonds hit

.223 his rookie year, as I recall—-he figured it out all right!!

by mjm4u on Jul 6, 2010 2:01 PM EDT reply actions  

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