Can the Pirates lineup generate more runs per game after the break?
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 11, 2010 7:04 PM EDT
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PrintUnfortunately for the Pirates, Andrew McCutchen, while having been most productive in the 3 hole this season, has not been able to drive in the runners who’ve been on base ahead of him (only 16 RBI). Combined with Jose Tabata’s struggles leading off, this has no doubt led to the recent changes in the lineup moving McCutchen to leadoff, Tabata 2nd and Neil Walker up to 3rd from 2nd.
On the upside it looks like Neil Walker has found success whether batting 2nd or 3rd in the lineup, and Pedro "The Savior" Alvarez has of late got his bat going, hitting .289-3-6 over his last 10 games.
The backend of the lineup is Ok, with Ryan Doumit (.261-8-31), and Lastings Milledge (.272-2-25) before we get to the void at SS with Ronny Cedeno (.220-4-16) or Bobby Crosby (.236-1-11)
I don’t claim to be a statistical genius, or even a luke-warm statistician, instead I took a quick temperature of how the players have been fairing, and thought about how I (an arm-chair manager) could reset the lineup for more production. From that came this lineup, with a return to the pitcher batting 8th:
- Andrew McCutchen
- Neil Walker
- Garrett Jones
- Pedro Alvarez
- Lastings Milledge
- Ryan Doumit
- Ronny Cedeno/Bobby Crosby
- Pitcher
- Jose Tabata
Earlier in the season, when Manager John Russell deployed this type lineup it was an attempt to score (.1?) more runs per game and it was sold by stating that McCutchen could bat 1st, yet have more opportunity to advance/drive-in runners. Cedeno, however, was not up to task at the 9-spot, but with Tabata showing some struggles leading off (and owning some good speed to boot), and a continued need for McCutchen to help placate the ineptitude of the rest of the lineup, I felt this was a reasonably good choice for both. I also think it's worth trying Alvarez at cleanup, since it's his riteful spot, and remarkably Jones has done pretty well hitting 3rd this season (.333-3-6 in 4 games - I know it's too small - but be damned with yer small sample size!)
What do you think? Is there any hope for this offense to turn it around? Will it happen if anyone is traded?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Mentioning Milledge as a good point would be fine...
except for the fact that since the Tabata callup on June 9th…Milledge is only playing about 55% of the time. Church gets the rest.
Since Tabata’s callup
Milledge .358/.413/.582 for a .995 OPS 75 PA
Church .161/.230/.286 for a .515 OPS 61 PA
Tabata .241/.323/.328 for a .653 OPS 130 PA
Young .207/.250/.276 for a .526 OPS 32 PA
Tabata has also hit into quite a bit of bad luck as most of you know. His plate discipline has been pretty darn good though with 14 walks or about 1 every 9 PA. Church has 10 in 167 PA all season or a walk every 16.7 plate appearances. Milledge with 25 walks in 280 PA this season or a walk every 11.2 PA. DY has 6 walks in 123 PA or one every 20.5 AB.
Conclusion…Milledge and Tabata have earned the right to be playing every day…well ahead of Church and Young.
The only ones walking more frequently than Tabata...
Cutch…1 per 9.2 PA (Tabata is 9.3)
Pearce…1 per 5.3 PA (limited sample size…7 walks in 38 PA)
“mumble mumble, Ryan Church has done some great things to deserve a spot in the starting lineup. mumble… I don’t look at stats, I just play the guys who look good batting behind Ryan Doumit. In the case of Church, what’s better than having 2 Ryans batting back to back. mumble mumble. Pittsburgh. mumble mumble.”
-John W Russell
looks like Tabata's promotion has been good for milledge
And like they’ve pointed out below, he’s only 25. He’s still got at least 4 years to grow and mature.
Having Tabata hit later in the lineup, is not a shot at his ability to hit MLB pitching. If I felt that way I’d have argued for someone else to take his spot in the lineup. He’s done very well hitting second. But I’d like to see McCutchen produce more runs, and I don’t mean him scoring more, I mean him driving in more runs. 16 RBI is not that good, but he’s still the best for avg hitter on the team, which leads me to believe, (and that he’s been so flat laeding off) that he should be either hitting later in the lineup, or be presented with more opportunity to drive in runs. Tabata on the other hand will likely hit even better at #9, making his value increase, while decreasing pressure on him in his first year. Sort of what they did for Eric Aybar in LA. He hit 9th most of his first full season, still got a lot of at bats, and also presented a tough out for pitchers late in the lineup. Pitchers had to pitch to him.
Just some thoughts.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 12, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as freakin' John Russell keeps playing Ryan Church....
then the answer is a resounding no. It’s just ridiculous.
I STRONGLY suspect
with no verification of course, that they are planning on dealing Church in the next 2 weeks
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
That, of course,
requires finding a team stupid enough to trade for him, instead of waiting for the Pirates to release him.
Yeah, there's that.
These are the kind of details that really throw a wrench into my suspicions. I now STRONGLY suspect (maybe hope?) that if Neil doesn’t find a trading partner at the non-waiver deadline, he’ll DFA Church.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
I hope Lastings is just turning out to be a late bloomer.
The guy is still very young at 26. Hopefully, it’s all starting to come together for him. Of course, if he’s not put in the lineup, it really doesn’t mean anything.
25, actually..
Won’t be 26 until next April, which supports your claim even more.
Also, with regards to Milledge..
..I think alot will be surprised by his OPS, despite what many percieved to be a big struggle this year.
His 14 HR, 2008 season which most consider his mini “breakout” year, his OPS was .731.
Last year as a Pirate his OPS was .729.
This season, considered by most unsuccessful, his OPS is .719. This is before today’s two hit game with a HR, so that number will go up some when BR calculates it tomorrow. I’d like Edge to get his stolen base numbers, or at least sb % up, but since we have Cutch and Tabata, the SB’s can take a back seat.
Doesn’t seem like a ton, but if Edge could finish the season with 13 HRs (10 more) with the average around .275 that could go a long way.
Milledge’s potential platoon issues…This year overall, he has a .391 wOBA before tonight against LHP (certain to be over .400 after tonight), and a .281 wOBA vs. RHP.
Certainly, Church is not doing better even against RHP with a .260 wOBA.
What’s odd to me is Milledge’s platoon split does not show up in 2008, and in fact Milledge hit better against RHP that year.
Management seems to hope Milledge’s current same-handed pitching woes are a confidence issue, and hopefully he can build confidence by mashing left handers, and transfer some of that success to the other side by the end of the year.
It’s more a small sample size issue than a confidence issue. His career splits are completely normal for a RHB, no reason whatsoever to think think that he’s got a problem hitting righties. Just let him play.
At the very least, I wouldn’t do the confidence thing for much longer. Let’s see if he can sink or swim so they know what they have for next year.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 12, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I have heard this before
And its duly noted. But the fact remains whether I choose RBI or Runs produced, to me, at least, they mean the same thing. It’s about the ability of a player to meet the pressure of the knowledge that they can help the team by getting a hit or getting on base. Where RBI’s fail is that the players with higher number RBI’s may not be the better hitter, just more fortunate to have RISP in the first place.
In the case of McCutchen and Tabata, its simply a means of talking about their innate ability to make those clutch hits when they are presented, and increasing those odds by batting them in the lineup where they can presumably do that, with other players such as Tabata in equally more productive slots.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 12, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Milledge's OPS now .739
The highest it has been since his 200 plate appearances in 2007.
FYI
TABATHA HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY SCORCHING THE BALL, UNFORTUNATELY HE’S BEEN HITTING IT RIGHT AT SOMEONE. LOOK FOR HIM TO PICK IT UP IN THE SECOND HALF. HE LOOKS LIKE HE BELONGS AND HASN’T BEEN OVERMATCHED.
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON PEDRO THOUGH. SURE HE HAS POWER, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE HE JUST CLOSES HIS EYES AND HOPES TO PUT THE BAT ON THE BALL.
ADDED NOTE ON PEDRO: I HOPE THE PIRATE STAFF KEEPS AN EYE ON HIS WEIGHT. WITH THAT “CABOOSE” ON HIM HE COULD EASILY TURN INTO A FAT SLOB LIKE PRINCE FIELDER.
MY FAVORITE WORD IS EXISTENTIALISM. I CAN BARELY SPELL IT AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT MEANS
OH L3T M3 TRY
T4B4T4 H4S B33N H1TT1NG TH3 B4LL SOL1DLY 4S H1S CURR3NT 198% L1N3 DR1V3 R4T3 WOULD 4TT3ST H1S B4B1P OF 278 1S LOW BUT NOT 3XTR3M3LY SO 4LTHOUGH 1D 3XP3CT H1S XB4B1P TO B3 H1GH3R TH4N USU4L BUT 1M NOT 3X4CTLY SUR3 WH3R3 TO LOOK FOR TH4T SO F4R H1S D3F3NS3 H4S B33N 3XC3PT1ON4L 4ND WH1L3 OBV1OUS S4MPL3 S1Z3 COND1T1ONS 4PPLY H3 H4S 4 233 UZR/150 SO F4R 4ND 4 DRS OF 6 WH1CH S33MS TO M3 TO B3 R34LLY H1GH FOR H1S L1M1T3D PL4Y1NG T1M3
TO M3 P3DRO JUST S33MS TO B3 4 SOM3WH4T TYP1C4L H1GH POW3R/LOW 4V3R4G3 GUY 4ND TH4T H3S JUST GO1NG THROUGH ROOK13 TR14LS 4ND TR1BUL4T1ONS FORTUN4T3LY H3 H4SNT SUST41N3D H1S L3V3L OF B4D B4TT1NG 4ND H4S B33N H1TT1NG V3RY N1C3LY 1N TH3 L4ST COUPL3 OF W33KS
(I’m so sorry)
That can’t have been easy to do. I was only going to ask why he was yelling and why he was mentioning Tabatha (who if I remember correctly was the child witchlet in Bewitched), yours is much more sublime (or Sub Lime or something)
I have a link to a site that automatically does that
It’s from a webcomic with a bunch of different iterations for trollspeak, as it were.
Can't possibly be worse, can it? ( I hope)
They should score more. We essentailly replaced LaRoache/Iwamura/Clement with Alvarez/Walker/Tabata and that should be a decent gain. Now if they’d let Milledge get the brunt of the playing time over Church and mix Pearce back in (or his injury serious enough that 2010 might be over?) they could increase their second 81 game run total by dozens over the first 81.
Pearce
Is fine. I’m not sure why they’ve left him in AAA. Because he’s been playing every day, and looks completely healthy.
I think it’s related to this whole Church thing. They must be trying to sell him. I can’t believe they plan on keeping him. Why would they?
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 12, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You may have missed it
But Pearce is not fine now.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 12, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely a tough break for Game Boy SP
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 12, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
What happened? I haven’t been able to catch games of the Indians since before the holiday.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 12, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
He has problems with his knees...
they had been hurting him all season but he had been playing threw it. Apparently his ankle injury made the knee problems worse and now he is receiving platelette therapy and will be out until August.
That’s why they kept him down? or did the injury just happen (ankle), and they weren’t concerned about his knees. Because I recall the Indianas announcers commenting on how healthy he appeared when he was playing everyday.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 13, 2010 7:42 AM EDT reply actions
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