Pedro Alvarez Heating Up
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 20, 2010 2:05 AM EDT
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PrintI was of course aware that Pedro Alvarez had started to hit better, but someone at OnlyBucs posted his monthly splits, and - wow:
June: .152/.216/.196
July: .308/.345/.558
It's too early to gloat here, but as I've said before, this wouldn't be the first time Alvarez just needed a few weeks to adjust. He drew three walks last night, and has now gotten on base in every game except one going all the way back to June 27. He still flails at pitches outside the zone a fair amount, but he's been more patient than he was when he arrived, he is less obviously vulnerable to pitches down and away, and he's hitting with a lot more authority.
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The walks are what encourages me most. Pitchers will try to get him to chase his entire career. HIs O-Swing right now is 35%, which could stand to come down closer to the league average of 28. He’s also swinging and missing more than anybody named Mark Reynolds; he’s only making contact 62% of the time, and league average there is 82%. That will certainly regress at least somewhat to the mean, and his Ks will go down.
He just looks a lot more comfortable now. His numbers are skewed from the first two weeks or so when guys like Danks and Thornton were tearing him to shreds in that CWS series. There’s no reason he can’t be a .395 wOBA hitter at least.
Are those number
on O-Swing and contact in totality or for just the past 3 weeks? I’m guessing he is doing much better than Reynolds in July.
It will be interesting to look back on this season at the end of the year to see how his progression happened month-to-month. It would also be informative to see his first season compared with those of some of the other MLers he has been compared to (Adam Dunn, Jim Thome).
They’re full year. His o-swing in July is 32%, which is much better.
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by itkonlyyou19 on Jul 21, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Jerry Crasnick looks like a moron......
If he would have looked at Pedro’s numbers at ANY level, he would have realized his mistaken view.
Same with Smizik regarding Tabata, but that is more of a overvaluation of batting average more than anything…..besides his general miserable demeanor.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 20, 2010 8:04 AM EDT reply actions
FanGraphs
Just looking at these trends is encouraging enough:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=2495&position=3B&page=1&type=mini
Yeah, but
I wondered if he committed an etiquette error Saturday night, swinging and singling on a 3-0 pitch with the Pirates pretty comfortably ahead. Aren’t you supposed to let that cripple go? sarcasm font
So does this mean we amy look like a real Major League offense
Instead of being down right offensive
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"He Twittered that pitch" Steve Blass
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
5.5 players in the lineup who matter:
Jones, Cutch, Tabata, Walker, Alvarez and maybe Milledge
We need a catcher and shortstop, and possibly a replacement for Milledge. That doesn’t sound too bad.
Why Jones?
I mean, he’s a 29 year-old 1B/corner OF with an OPS under .800. I’m not sure why people are valuing him as they are. This year is in line with his career minor league numbers, and it appears more and more certain that last year was a fluke.
He’s a nice guy to have around, but he is one you look to upgrade and don’t make future moves around.
A RF with 25 HR power, and a .270-.280 average
It seems like he should be a part of our future… especially since he’s controlled for another 4.5 years
Agreed
assuming he can keep up that pace, which is up for the FO to evaluate and decide.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 20, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
What exactly were you expecting? Jones was never going to stay on the same pace. So what? He’s going to hit 20 HR and put up a wOBA of .340-350. That’s plenty respectable, and it’s great bang for the very limited buck he’s getting.
He’s not a terrible excuse for a cleanup hitter, and he isn’t exactly “old” just yet.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly what I was expecting.
Nowhere did I state that Jones has disappointed my expectations. My point is Jones is not someone we should consider part of our offensive core that we build around- he is someone we should look to upgrade.
Relative to his position, his wOBA is blah and he is not at an age where we would expect improvement.
Jones: 107 OPS+, .337 wOBA, age 29
Milledge: 103 OPS+, .330 wOBA, age 25
Somebody explain again why Jones is a set part of the future and Milledge is not.
Milledge gets a raw deal from most Pirate fans.....
If you look at the season since May, maybe mid-May, he has been one of our top two (besides Cutch) players.
Always hustles, hits well in the clutch, and his power numbers have been steadily increasing. I think he is showing people his potential….and, like you said WTM, he is still 25 years old.
I like what he gives us…..and if he continues to show more pop, we have another part of our future.
Great trade……really great trade.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 20, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Says who?
I don’t see anyone dismissing Milledge. As of about 6 weeks ago, people were starting to get concerned, as his OBP was only fair and his SLG was still nonexistent as a Pirate, but John Russell was the only one I know of who didn’t think that he was our starting LF/RF. I think people are still not set on him as part of the future (because if this is his ceiling, it’s not enough from a corner OF), but I haven’t heard anyone talking about bringing back Brandon Moss.
Ah
I wasn’t reading that as dismissing LM as not part of the future, just as expressing doubt. When you said, “Somebody explain…” I thought you were talking about a widely-held belief, not just C Shint’s.
Anyway, I’d put it this way: I think Milledge has generally been given (a lot) more benefit of the doubt than LaRoche ever was. I’m not arguing the merits of that, but just as a useful measuring stick. To some extent, the question has always been whether his power would return, and it seems that it finally has. Once Lastings is giving you power and acceptable defense, he’s a useful piece for several years to come (although not irreplaceable).
Relative to his position, his wOBA is blah and he is not at an age where we would expect improvement.
Specifically, Jones 23/30 in wOBA among 1st basemen. He’s 48/76 among qualified OF, and Milledge is 53/76. Hardly the big boppers at the power spots that you’d like to see there, especially when both grade as mediocre on defense.
Certainly Jones could go on an otherworldly tear again, and Milledge could keep hitting like he has since June.
If not, though, then it’s hard to say much about their production except it isn’t very good relative to league.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
This is where age comes into play.
Milledge is 25, and therefore probably still improving. Jones is 29, and therefore probably as good as he’s going to get.
You can't say someone is "probably" improving based on age because they're 25 years old
I’m not even sure its likely.
Umm…yes you can? The average peak age for baseball players is 27-28 years old. Milledge is under that age. Mathematically speaking, he is probably still improving. Not definitely, but probably.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Depending on how you define terms like “improving” and “peak age,” the veracity of whichever study is asserted as definitive, you can be argumentative and assert that Lastings Milledge is blooming as a major league baseball player. That’s a lot of ifs. Ironically, you’ll hear that guys are defined as players while they’re in their early 20s by many of the same people.
well...
“improving” means getting better, and there have been a lot of studies that DO suggest the average peak age is 27/28. Sure it’s not true in all cases absolutely, but I think you can make a pretty good argument that Lastings is improving
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
It's called playing the percentages.
Most players who are 25 haven’t peaked yet. Sure, Milledge could be the exception. But over time, you’ll win a lot more money playing the percentages than you will betting against them.
no
Its not playing the percentages. Besides the points I made, because someone guesses at an average age of improvement in play, doesn’t mean that more players improve. That’s misunderstanding the word “average.” You’d have to see the actual numbers to determine that. Im sure the Pirates aren’t so bad that they would make personnel decisions based on a tiny difference, if in fact that difference exists, rather than the large amount of information they have from staff that evaluate and interact with him.
Just because...
someone is 25 doesn’t mean they are, by necessity, is improving. But we can say that, overall, players peak at around age 28 (there is a lot of analysis and statistics that support this). Milledge is 25 (so he is not at the average peak year yet). Surely, that’s not enough. You’re right there. However, we can look at Lastings Milledge over his PAs/innings/what have you since he came to the Pirates (a decent sample size and one devoid of off-the-field problems he had elsewhere [b/c he hasn’t had them here] which perhaps muddied the waters) and say: "Milledge has improved. Given that he is improving at such and such a rate, and he is not yet 28 years-old, we can reasonably guess/bet/evaluate that he will continue this progression for at least couple more years.
I don’t think that’s an outrageous way of going about things.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
It's not just a "guess" about the ages.
It’s been the subject of extensive study, going back more than 20 years.
Jones needs to be platooned. His wRC+ against righties is 129 but 76 against lefties
I definitely consider him an important piece for the next 4-5 years, but I see that long-term role as a platoon player either in RF or 1B.
by houksyndrome on Jul 20, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
A healthy Steve Pearce
could make for a decent platoon with Jones.
What he said.
I find such a rigid attitude disturbing. Perhaps I’m biased by the success Tanner had platooning, but I think it is often the smart way to go. One should adapt their tactics to the situation instead of stubbornly waiting for the situation to conform to their tactics.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
I think Russell doesn't believe in
the word platooning!
He just likes to play righties against lefties and lefties against righties
Jones is the Pirates’ best run producer right now. He isn’t going to get platooned, regardless of his splits.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That's non-sense.
McCutchen is the Pirates’ best run producer, which is a term I hate because it is generally used to defend guys with big RBI numbers who actually aren’t very good. Further, even if he was the best whatever, if the team became better by platooing him, you platoon him.
How does the team become better by platooning Jones? There isn’t a single healthy option in the organization. Doumit moving to first temporarily is a disaster, Pearce is hurt, Crosby sucks, Clement can’t hit in the Major Leagues, and Alvarez doesn’t know how to play the position yet.
There isn’t anyone other than Pearce who can potentially play first base consistently, and since Pearce is hurt, there’s no sense in platooning Jones.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the first time I’ve seen Crosby sucks written by Pittsburgh fan. Feels weird.
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
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by blackjackfishtaco on Jul 20, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
A Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, Richard trophy, Art Ross trophy, Lester B. Pearson and Hart awards all disagree.
He’s also got 2 Messier leadership trophies, if that means anything to you.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Should have been two Harts if the voters weren’t idiots.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 20, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
“But, but…Ovechkin has so much passion for the game.”
Bobby Crosby, though, sucks.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see why either of them need to be “replaced.”
If there’s a serious pitching upgrade available, I’d trade Jones. Otherwise, just hang onto him. Due to his salary and years of control, plus the Bucs’ sorry offensive state, he has more value to the Pirates than most other teams.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones
deserves a little more credit than some folks are giving him. He has been quite good defensively and he’s one binge away from putting up better than league average numbers. Even when he’s not hitting the ball hard, he finds ways to get on base. Yeah, he’s as good as he’s going to get but what he is is also one of our most consistent hitters. He would probably benefit from a little rest right now, even a platoon, but I’m happy they gave him a shot and he made something out of it.
by RichieHebner on Jul 21, 2010 12:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The production hasn’t been good with Jones, but it’s not like the team will rush out to replace him this off-season. He’s got plenty of time to show he can still produce, and could go on another crazy binge any day.
No doubt that his line to this point in 2010 has been disappointing if you had high hopes, though.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 21, 2010 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
very encouraging
and if he keeps this up to go along with milledge and cedeno being on fire wow we might actually score runs in the second half. not to mention tabata and neil walker have looked good since the break. just need to get cutch back in the lineup before everyone cools off
Another good thing
He hasn’t been the butcher at 3rd base everyone was claiming he was. Not yet anyway
From an outsider
The limited times I’ve seen him, he looks really good. Some of the plays he’s made are definitely not routine.
I really agree here
Everyone was talking about how mediocre he was on defense. I was expecting to see him flubbing plays and losing us outs. But, he has really impressed me with his defense, so far.
by pittbluedevil on Jul 20, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Those people hadn't seen him play.....
They just read reports and looked at his body. Anyone who has seen Pedro at Indianapolis this year should not be surprised by the way he has handled 3B. He has been good all year and I stated as much before his debut.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 20, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw him play 6 games this year and a few more last year. I admit it’s a small sample, but the last time I saw him in Indy he made 2 errors on a single play. He made 2 errors in a single game when I saw him at Altoona last. His defense has been better than expected but certainly there was reason to be concerned.
Yinzers uber alles
Side note, who was it on here that was saying Pedro was at Delwyn Young level of D at 3rd? And it wasn’t a troll-y type either
Kind of stupid. Alvarez has a great arm, Young’s Grandma-esqe arm put one of the teams’ best hitters on the shelf for several months.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Wasn't that Vlad?
I know Vlad has always been down on his defense, but I don’t know if he went that far.
Could've been me.
He hasn’t looked as bad as I expected there since his promotion, but it’s a pretty small sample, and I’m still pessimistic on the whole.
Vlad also thinks uviedo is a good prospect, though....
just kidding, Vlad…..just kidding.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 20, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Go ahead and kid.
He’s a prospect. It’s like saying that water is wet. It’s just the way things are.
Bad Thing
The bad thing is they are pitching around him, that tells us they have no fear of the guy batting behind him. I would not have had any fear yesterday either, Doumit should platoon, he is not hitting right handed and with a left hander on the mound JR did another one of his man crush moves and had to put Doumit in the batting order instead of Kratz. Doumit hitting right handed and Church in the lineup was like 2 giant holes in the order.
Crosby should have played first and Jones should have gone to right field.
Yup
And at this point, who cares about Pedro being pitched around? And I don’t think that’s actually the case. Well it could be a little, but I think the larger thing happening is that pitchers are looking at him flailing at everything out of the zone his first week or so and gunning for easy Ks. I find this much more encouraging in terms of Pedro’s quickly-enhanced plate discipline as well as the general goodness of drawing walks. He drew 3 walks and scored 1 run, what’s wrong with that?
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
I think the point
was to denigrate Doumit, not Alvarez.
I’d certainly rather see PA mashing than walking, but both are preferable to striking out.
Unless somebody surprises us, Pedro will be pitched around his entire Pirates career. Get used to it.
Do you think Jones is enough to protect him a little bit? Would it help to switch the 2? I can’t decide, thats why I’m asking…
For run production, you want your best three hitters in the 1, 2, and 4 spots of the order. For run probability, that’s where they’re the best. That’s just what “The Book” says, but the percentages are pretty reliable.
McCutchen at leadoff or the two spot is best. Tabata should bat in the other, and then Jones and Alvarez should be a combination of four and five.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
At least a bit
It would only take a handful of Jones HRs with Alvarez on base to change the (perceived) odds on pitching around PA. Given that Jones is probably our best SLG guy after PA, slotting him 5 after Alvarez makes all the sense in the world.*
In my dreamworld, Milledge blossoms into a #3-type and Walker can slide down to 6 or 7, where his bat really plays nicely. I can’t quite believe in him as a #3.
- BTW, I think it’s totally reasonable not to have done this yet – PA is still raw, and he’s only just come on in the last ~3 weeks. If he keeps it up, he’ll be at #4 by season’s end.
This got me thinking, and I did some research and fanposted about it.
Alvarez, right now, might be served pretty well in the three-hole.
by Suffering Buc on Jul 20, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Walks > 10% and Ks < 30% are very good signs. It’s hard to pick many holes in his July line if you take for granted he will strike out a lot (but not at a Brad Eldred rate).
Alvarez should still be the most productive hitter on the 2011 team by a wide margin.
Good transition, if Pedro can keep up July-type numbers the rest of the season then it will wash away the June.
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