Everyone In Unison: Pirates Likely To Be Quiet At Deadline
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 27, 2010 1:56 AM EDT
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After a weekend mostly spent away from the computer, I came back aiming to write something big yesterday, but there was surprisingly little news. By this point in July, the Bucs are usually heading loudly toward the trade deadline, but this year there's almost nothing. I'm going to chronicle the deadline pretty seriously over at SB Nation Pittsburgh, with the aim of going into a bunch of detail here if anything appears to be imminent or actually happens. I started the thread over there yesterday, though, and the only real "news" is that Dejan Kovacevic, Jenifer Langosch and John Perrotto all piped up to say it's pretty likely that very little will happen.
The reasons are obvious - most of the Pirates' veteran acquisitions have been bad. And there's no real reason to rush into trading any of the players who have played well, mostly because the Pirates can control their rights for a couple years or more, but also because there's much less need for the type of prospect the Bucs were able to acquire in the deals they made last year - you know, the interesting, Grade-B level starting pitching prospect. There are enough interesting arms to fill out the rosters of Bradenton and West Virginia for the next couple of years, and that will be doubly true once the Pirates finish signing their pitching-heavy 2010 draft class. The sorts of hitters the Pirates might be able to get for the talent that's available are mostly of the Josh Harrison variety - intriguing, but not really anything to build your franchise around.
This isn't to say that the Pirates should rest on their laurels, because plainly there's lots of work to be done in the minors, but there are now enough vaguely interesting prospects in the system for the Bucs to take advantage of the opportunities that minor league playing time creates. What the Pirates really need now is impact guys, and they're unlikely to get any of those in trades. So the only player who's likely to be moved is Octavio Dotel, whose market value as a "proven closer" (TM) likely exceeds his immediate value to the Bucs.
-P- By the way, Ray Oaks has a good feature over at my other site about the beginning of the Pedro Alvarez era and the end of the Andy LaRoche era.
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I hope this turns out to not be true
It’s all about the return obviously, but I’ve been the campaign leader of the “Move Meek or Hanrahan” movement.
I’ve argued more detailed arguments in past posts, but it basically comes down to the fact that we have plenty of needs around the diamond and at starting pitching. Our greatest expendable trade chip? A great bullpen arm. Dotel will not bring back anything of great value, but Meek or Hanrahan very well could.
Tim at buccofans had a great post a few weeks ago saying if we moved Meek in a “Mike Gonzalez for Adam LaRoche” type trade where we acquired our starting first baseman for the next few years in return for a very good bullpen arm. Exactly the type of trade I’d be looking for if I’m Huntington.
I just dont see
a team giving us anyone who would become our immediate starting 1B for Hanrahan or Meek. Yes they are good but the days of trading a Jeff Bagwell or Curt Schilling for a middle reliever have sadly passed.
I could see Dotel getting moved but the return would likely be a AA guy at best who is far from a sure thing.
There are still quite a few GMs that overvalue bullpen arms......
and undervalue high-end prospects with some degree of risk.
I would imagine Dotel definitely getting shipped and more than 50/50 that Meek or Hanrahan gets shipped, probably Hanrahan being more likely.
FWIW, I think Hanrahan is the better pitcher and will be the better pitcher over the next three years. I actually don’t think it will be that close, either.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I mostly agree with you
If either Hanrahan or Meek have to go, I’d rather see NH sell high on Meek.
"'Tis a bird I love, with its brooding note, And the trembling throb in its mottled throat; There's a human look in its swelling breast, And the gentle curve of its lowly crest; And I often stop with the fear I feel-- He runs so close to the rapid wheel." Nathaniel Parker Willis, "The Belfrey Pigeon"
Keep in mind
Adam LaRoche was a 26 year old 1B coming off a season with an OPS of .915
Mike Gonzalez a 28 year old closer with a 2.17 ERA.
Maybe you think the game has changed in terms of what teams will trade since 2007, or that since Meek and Hanny aren’t closers they aren’t worth as much, but love him or hate him, at the time, and in hindsight, this was one of Littlefield’s better moves.
Ed Wade ...
was kind enough to offer Ryan Howard for Benson, according to the Post-Gazette. Of course, DL turned it down. But yes, he is one of the worst GMs I’ve ever seen.
I would actually be mildly disappointed if we don’t do anything. We are terrible and I don’t think there is enough help in the system, certainly not in AAA, so that means help is at least a year away.
My gut is that if we don’t make trades now we’ll see a small flurry after ST next year and at the deadline. At that point the FO probably hopes that we would be trading more polished prospects for young impact players that can help us win. Similar to Tampa Bay w/ Shields.
Yinzers uber alles
Speaking of Tampa...
Shields, Garza, Price, Davis, Niemann, Hellickson soon…
They’ve said they could go with Hellickson from the ’pen for the stretch run. Seems to me they could better the team by trading Davis or Niemann and just promoting Hell-boy. Jones could be a nice fit.
Jones/Dotel could net us Wade Davis? I’m almost certain those two could bring back Niemann, but I’d probably pass.
Sorry..
Tampa would never do that…
Jones OPS is very average….I don’t know where Dotel would fit in Tampa Bullpen. There close right now is better thn him, so is there setup man.
You wouldn't take Niemann?
2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .222 BAA? Also, if you look at his career stats, he’s gotten better every year.
I’d do Jones and Dotel for him in a heartbeat.
But that’s why it’d never happen. :)
"'Tis a bird I love, with its brooding note, And the trembling throb in its mottled throat; There's a human look in its swelling breast, And the gentle curve of its lowly crest; And I often stop with the fear I feel-- He runs so close to the rapid wheel." Nathaniel Parker Willis, "The Belfrey Pigeon"
Jason Bay ...
couldn’t land us Davis. So no change Dotel and Jones can.
My point..
I would do that in a heartbeat…
Problem.. Tampa wouldn’t.
Somewhat valid argument
…though Davis was dominating AA and AAA at the time we were looking at him, in addition to being at top 20 prospect in all of MLB.
He’s still only 24 and is nowhere near a bust, but he hasn’t lit the league on fire out of the gate like some had imagined.
I hate to say it, but...
I think they will be quit just cause outside of maybe two arms, not many teams are interested on what the Bucs are putting available.
Dig a little deeper...
..Niemann’s FIP is 4.32, meaning he’s relying heavily on that stellar Tampa Bay defense, and getting really lucky. He’s nowhere near the sub 3.00 era pitcher he has been this year, and he doesn’t get many strikeouts.
He’s, in essence, the Paul Maholm of the Rays, which is valuable, I just don’t trade Jones/Dotel for Niemann alone.
I just think that if Jones is a league average 1B/RF for the next 4 years, who you pay almost nothing to, it gives Tampa alot of payroll flexibility once Pena’s off the books. Dotel bolsters their bullpen for a playoff run this year, and he’s at a reasonable cost for next season. Would Tampa trade Wade Davis for Jones/Dotel? Probably not, but I don’t think it’s too outlandish.
I'd trade Jones/Dotel for Neimann
Jones is a 1B/RF who plays below average defense, and has a below average bat at both positions. Not sure what we are holding onto in him.
by element1286 on Jul 27, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Count me in the "disappointed if NH stands pat" crowd
This is a team I really think could be legitimately competitive in 2012 if the right moves are made this year and next. That means promoting the right prospects but also acquiring the right veterans via trade or free agency.
I was pushing the idea of acquiring Edwin Jackson in the “wish list” FanPost. He’s very much available and indeed Buster Olney reports that the Nationals are closing in on acquiring him. The Nationals aren’t going to the playoffs this year. They’re just as bad as the Pirates. So why can’t we go after him too?
Granted, for all I know, NH has called about Jackson but the Nats are offering a more attractive package. I hope so. Because to look around and see other bad teams making moves and trying to get better, yet witness silence on the Pirates’ front would be very dispiriting.
I know full well the Pirates were never gonna get Haren or Lee or Oswalt. But acquiring a guy like Jackson or Carmona and plugging him in there with Maholm and Lincoln (after he gets his mind right again) next season gives you a heck of a 1-2-3. I’m obviously just a guy on the Internet, but it seems to me that those are the types of moves that need to happen.
As for who is likely to move, I offer this tidbit from Dejan Kovacevic’s chat of yesterday:
znc1: From the information you’ve been hearing Dejan, who do you think is the one guy outside of Dotel who could be traded?
Dejan Kovacevic: Really, right now, most of the focus is on Dotel, who I expect will be playing for another team come Sunday. D.J. Carrasco is in this category, too.
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10207/1075467-63.stm
Though I will say, in partial contradiction of everything I just type, it’s worth remembering this quote from the chat:
But all it takes is a cursory glance at the Pirates’ roster to see that most of it is now made up of players they either would not want to move or could not move if they wanted.
"'Tis a bird I love, with its brooding note, And the trembling throb in its mottled throat; There's a human look in its swelling breast, And the gentle curve of its lowly crest; And I often stop with the fear I feel-- He runs so close to the rapid wheel." Nathaniel Parker Willis, "The Belfrey Pigeon"
Per Dejan...
Ledezma and Jackson are the callups.
Jackson?
I thought it was supposed to be Thomas…
Jackson is awful.....
Sinker or not. Although, I am not sure Thomas is any better, particularly if we are bringing him up to face RHers. Let’s be honest: We don’t have many options at AAA that are anything other than ‘pretty bad’.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I will say one thing for Jackson:
His ball sounds really good during warmups. Makes a nice whistle on the way in and then a good solid pop in the catcher’s mitt.
If he were a Foley artist, he’d be set.
ill be the first to admit
i’m not really educated on the concept of optioning to AAA, but my naive understanding is that, once a player’s contract is purchased by the MLB club, that player can only be sent down a certain number of times before he has to be DFAed. Is it me, or has Steven Jackson been up and down a ton of times over the past two years? How does he have that many options?
A player has 3 option years
A player can be sent down any number of times during a season but still only uses one option.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 27, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
trade deadline
Unfortunately, the trade deadline (along with the Rule 5 draft!) has become the highlight of the year over the past decade. If we do nothing, I will be bummed.
I can’t wait for the day that we don’t care about these “side shows” and are only worried about who we will play in October.
what about the June draft?
although I agree with your basic sentiment.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 27, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Trade deadlie
Dotel, definitely
Meek and Hanrahan, only if NH gets overwhelmed
Maholm, only if another team gets desperate for SP
LaRoche, I think he could be flipped in a failed prospect deal.
Seriously, what else do the Pirates have that would even remotely interest a playoff team?
Jones
to Detroit.
I wonder if we could send Jones and one of those relief arms or Maholm for Porcello. It’s crazy, but in Detroit he’s starting to wear out his welcome (again, I repeat, it’s ridiculous).
While he star has certainly dimmed, he’s absurdly young, was rushed, and has all the makings of being an ace.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 27, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Haven't heard such things
link?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 27, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Unless the Dodgers will give up Gordon for Maholm—and I very much doubt that would happen—I’m fine with seeing the team stand pat. They don’t have the same chips that they used to, and guys like Maholm and Hanrahan have a strong chance of contributing to the next winning Pirates team.
by Kidspud on Jul 27, 2010 11:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Maholm has very little chance of contributing to the next Pirates winning team.....
Hanrahan, probably only slightly higher.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
At least some chance, I'd say.
He’s physically durable, and only 28. If they wanted to keep him around, he’d probably still be a solid pitcher in 4-5 years, and one would hope that the Notional Year of Future Contention would fall somewhere within that window.
The question then becomes whether they’d pay market to keep him, and whether he’d be a better rotation option than the other internal candidates at that time (who theoretically might all hit it big).
Perhaps the Notional Year of Future Contention will fall in the Year of the Trial-Size Dove Bar.
by richaude on Jul 27, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
For me, I think...
…it’s more likely to fall in the Year of Glad, for obvious reasons.
(Rec’d for DFW.)
I was speaking more to being able to pay/keep him.....
I would hope we wouldn’t pay market value for him in 3-4 years, nor would I believe that we could pay market value even if we chose to.
Plus, as always, he would be on the wrong side of 30 and I assume would still want to be paid as a #3 at least. When, in reality, he will be more of a #4/#5….
I just don’t see us keeping him beyond his contract with us, if that long.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see any reason...
…why Maholm couldn’t be putting up similar numbers in four or five years to the numbers that he’s putting up now (barring injury). Pitchers don’t follow the age curves as predictably as position players do. And we’re likely to be paying some mid-rotation starter market value at that point – so there’s no reason why it’d be worse for that starter to be Maholm, rather than some other Maholm-like guy.
The reason some FA mid-rotation starter
would be better for us a couple of years from now than paying Maholm his market value to fill that role then is that he would problably net us a couple of decent prospects now. Three years from now we would then have a mid-rotation pitcher plus the prospects instead of just Maholm.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 27, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
But signing that mid-rotation pitcher...
…would cost us our first/second-round pick. So there are costs and benefits both ways.
Agreed Vlad
But pitchers also blow out elbows and shoulders. I suspect you are right that Maholm will be a #4 type pitcher in five years. I wouldn’t trade Maholm unless it was a no-brainer offer.
Wow... from MLBTR courtesy of Ed Price at AOL Fanhouse
…Angel’s were looking at Garrett Jones before acquiring Callapso, but balked at our asking price of….. wait for it….. Maicer Izturis? Yep, the untouchable Maicer Izturis.
Yes, the same Maicer Izturis that turns 30 later this season, has played in 37 games, and is hitting .250 this year. Not to mention Aybar, Kendrick, and now Callaspo in the mix.
Jones isn’t great, but if the Angel’s balk at asking for Izturis, it’s either a great indictaor of how they make trades (Haren rip-off anyone?), how little Jones is valued, or both perhaps.
Was just going to post something regarding this.....
While he has been the victim of bad luck (.267 BABIP this year), his wOBA is around .320. His ISO (while improved) is still .135, and, his apparent strength is in the fact that he doesn’t strike out a whole lot and walks a decent bit. However, if we were trying to give up GFJ for this guy, I am glad we were told ‘No, thanks…..’
I cannot fathom this being a one-for-one deal, if for no other reason than position. Where was Izturis play? Can he play SS? I would imagine that is where they have him pegged, and, while his plate discipline would be an upgrade over Cedeno, age and defense and pop would not be.
I just don’t understand this move, even if it appears to have been avoided.
Anyone state the other side?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Izturis can play SS.
150 career ML games there (plus some minor league experience), 4.1 UZR in about 1,200 career innings. He’s only playing 3B for them right now because they have several SSs and no better 3B options.
He’d be an upgrade on Cedeno in the present, and the age thing is a bit of a red herring, given that there’s only two-and-a-half years’ difference between the two, and Cedeno doesn’t project as a guy with much power development left.
Service time is more of an issue.
I was looking for a reason too for this. Thanks. Do you think this would have been 1:1? This certainly is not a salary dump.
Yinzers uber alles
That is basically Jones’ value at this point. M. Izturis would have held up SS for the Pirates for a few years, while a mediocre 1B/OF bat is easier to find.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 27, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Was just going to post something regarding this.....
While he has been the victim of bad luck (.267 BABIP this year), his wOBA is around .320. His ISO (while improved) is still .135, and, his apparent strength is in the fact that he doesn’t strike out a whole lot and walks a decent bit. However, if we were trying to give up GFJ for this guy, I am glad we were told ‘No, thanks…..’
I cannot fathom this being a one-for-one deal, if for no other reason than position. Where was Izturis play? Can he play SS? I would imagine that is where they have him pegged, and, while his plate discipline would be an upgrade over Cedeno, age and defense and pop would not be.
I just don’t understand this move, even if it appears to have been avoided.
Anyone state the other side?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The more I look at this...
..I see Izturis signed for a three year deal before this season started, Aybar’s contract is up at the end of this season, and Scioscia is known to have a HUGE man-crush on Izturis, no surprise the Angel’s didn’t even consider it.
what the whaaaaaaat?
“Angel’s were looking at Garrett Jones before acquiring Callapso, but balked at our asking price of….. wait for it….. Maicer Izturis? Yep, the untouchable Maicer Izturis”
FACEPALM
by BadAndy on Jul 27, 2010 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe
Maybe the Pirates see this as their infield in the near future:
3B – Walker
1B – Alverez (has looked awful on defense at 3B)
2B – Harrison
SS – Cedeno or whoever
I disagree on Alvarez's defense...
..he has misjudged a few balls, but overall he has made some really tough plays I never would’ve expected to see him make.
I think Alvarez can stick for at least another 3-4 years at third.
I disagree. When balls are hit right at him its a 50/50 thing, he misses alot of them. As far as making a great play to his left or right, never happens. Alvarez is giving up as much as he does at the plate. If GI Jones was not at first with lanky arms scooping up all of Alvarez’s bad throws, you’d be screaming for a move this year.
by BucsFaninCA on Jul 27, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
This is just so incorrect I don't know where to start...
it just isn’t true. Alvarez is inconsistent but your post is so hyperbolic it’s not even funny.
totally disagree
Alvarez isn’t the greatest third baseman around, but he does make the routine plays and comes up with a sparkler just as often as he boots one. And your giving GFJ waaaay too much credit over there at first. he’s got an average glove.
Can he stick?
Probably, if they’re determined to keep him there. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be better off with a different glove at the position, though.
From Ed Price..
• Before getting Alberto Callaspo from the Royals, the Angels checked on the Pirates’ Garrett Jones, but talks died when Pittsburgh asked for infielder Maicer Izturis.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/07/27/overheard-and-understood-bronson-arroyo-heating-up-as-usual/
Jeff Clement opinion anyone?
Anyone know why Jeff Clement struggled so much to hit?
The rap on him was could not play good defense, but was a pure and powerful hitter.
Why was he so clueless and useless as a hitter?
If your first couple posts are any indication......
I have a feeling you are going to be tough to read……
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Garrett Jones
The right move is to the White Sox who are looking for a left-handed bat. Not sure what they could offer in return.
Before you say no...
…any chance Jones / Meek / prospect (Lorin? Wilson?) could land us Beckham?
No...
they wouldn’t include him in a Lee or Oswalt deal. We don’t have anything nearly that valuable.
after the capps fiasco
i would hope that neil learned a lesson about leaks to the media. i do not recall who was the leak to the post gazzette. i just hope that if a trade was in the works. neil will play the cards close to the chest. in other words we find out after the deal is done.
Matt Capps isn't any good.....at all......
There was no lesson to be learned. He made the right decision to cut him loose.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 27, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
i was referring to the fact that the media DK i believe leaking that capps may be DFA'ed
while capps was being shopped. thus eliminating any value. why pay when you can pluck him off the scrap heap. imo. NH stated this very thing,that the media leak made capps worthless.
by karreemofwheat on Jul 27, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
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