Garrett Jones, Pirates Bullpen Help Bucs Beat Rockies
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 29, 2010 1:35 AM EDT
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PrintI only got to watch chunks of last night's game, but as bad as it was seeing Ross Ohlendorf getting Jakubauskas'ed (hit in the head with a pitch, and fortunately it sounds like he'll be fine, or I wouldn't joke about it), it was excellent to see so much nice work from the bullpen. Sean Gallagher walked three batters in three innings, but he otherwise got through them without a problem. Wil Ledezma then made his Pirates debut and pitched a scoreless inning and a third, and then the Pirates were on to their more dependable guys, who didn't let them down.
Offensively, Garrett Jones had a huge game, going 4-for-4 with two homers, while Andrew McCutchen went 3-for-4 with a double.
In the minors, Brandon Moss continued his hot hitting by going 2-for-5 with a homer for Indianapolis, while Akinori Iwamura left the game after getting into a collision. Moss has hit well recently, but I'm not worried about making space for him at the big-league level just yet; his overall line still isn't that impressive, and let's not forget how bad he was last year. Justin Wilson had a quality start for Altoona. Nate Baker continued to pitch well in his third start for Bradenton. I hadn't realized that former prospect Shelby Ford is all the way down there now after flaming out in AAA and then AA; it's great that he's sticking with it, but he has to wonder what happened to his career. Evan Chambers went 4-for-6 with a double for West Virginia. At State College, Colton Cain started and allowed one run through three innings, but Trent Stevenson gave up four runs, two earned, in relief. Nothing too interesting happened for the GCL Pirates, but there was a Rinku Singh appearance. Would it be crazy to point out that he seems to be figuring this game out? Or that Dinesh Patel hasn't been so bad either?
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I’ve asked around a little about that Delwyn Young interference play now. My understanding from what I’ve been hearing is that Delwyn should have been called out there. I have no idea why they made the call they did.
shayborg (IIRC) quoted the law in the gamethread
seemed right acc to that, but i m too lazy to go back n find it
If they deemed that interference then he should have been out.
But I still don’t see anyway that is interference. He’s in the box, taking his swing. It’s Olivo’s responsibility to throw around him, not Delwynn’s to get out of the way.
Pirates tear it up in last two games.
Are the Rockies more lame than we thought? Or are the Pirates finally starting to come together? Jones and McCutchen unloaded a lumber yard tonight and our pitching did the job nicely. Keep it up boys, my Buccos are looking good two days in a row. I’ll take it, thank you. Now make it a habit!
Well, the Rox are in a funk
And I guess theirs is deeper than ours.
Of course, Ubaldo could put a quick stop to that today. Although you can’t count out Paul matching him.
The thing about this team is that there are no longer holes in the top half of the lineup, which makes big innings, like the 3rd last night, a lot more likely. It’s practically a given that, on any given night, we’ll get 8 or 9 hits from the first 5 or 6 batters, with a walk or two and probably an XBH or 2. They don’t always cluster enough to equal big output, but it’ll happen often enough. One thing I really like is that, from Cutch to Milledge, every guy is a legit 2B threat, and half of them are 20 HR guys (OK, Cutch isn’t quite there yet, but he has that kind of power). I think that the days of 5-hit innings in which we score just 1 run may be a thing of the past.
It sounds like you have already forgotten
the last four games of the recent home stand.
I am more optimistic than I was before the AS break, but I can’t help but recall the numerous times the hopes generated by a week or two of decent play have been dashed by an ensuing 7-game losing steak or something like that.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 29, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the Rockies are on an 8 game losing streak. So yeah, they’re in a funk, but the Pirates still have to win the games.
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on Jul 29, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Tim at Pirates Prospects think Moss should get the call....
But, he is primarily doing it because he thinks they should platoon he and Milledge, with the latter going against LHPers and Moss facing righties. He thinks the corresponding move should be to DFA Church.
I am all in favor of DFA’ing Church, but I agree with Charlie that Moss shouldn’t be called up yet, if for a different reason. I definitely think that Moss’s new stance is legit, but I agree with the FO: Why call him up to sit on the bench? Let him prove that the new approach is legitimate, let him cut down on the still too high K rate, and see if he can improve his BB rate over the next two months. Then, if he is still doing well, let him fight it out for a spot in Spring Training.
I do not think Milledge deserves/should be put in a platoon the rest of the year. Let’s see if his 3-month tear is legit (as the case with Moss) and let him go out there everyday. If he does prove himself (as he has been doing), then Moss can still make the team next year in the 4th OF spot.
I do agree with Tim on one thing, obviously: Church should have been cut months ago, not just recently. Whomever they bring up is another matter, though….
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 29, 2010 9:10 AM EDT reply actions
I think Moss should come up in Sept and then fight it out in ST. I was going to link to this article. I thought it was very good.
Yinzers uber alles
i wish you would cause i can't find it.
by karreemofwheat on Jul 29, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Moss article
here is the link from PiratesProspects.
http://www.piratesprospects.com/2010/07/brandon-moss-deserves-another-shot.html
BucsDugout already has a thread on Moss so I won’t start another one
Yinzers uber alles
thanks
i did not know he changed the sites name.
by karreemofwheat on Jul 29, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
poor guy
couldn’t buy a hit in ST this year (it was him right?)
by BlindSquirrel on Jul 29, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Church
I’d also probably keep Moss down a bit longer. He has put up a few impressive months.
But he was awful the first month in Indy and the past two years in Pittsburgh.
As for Church, I don’t get it. I suspect he’s gone Aug. 2. But he needs to go.
I think we could use two more months of full data on Milledge. If his next two months are in the .700 OPS range, then there won’t be much to defend him with. But he’s hit well at times before, so you never know.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 29, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Moss' homer last night was a grand slam, no?
Also I was impress with Ledezma. if he can become reliable for us, that’s a big lift to an already very solid bullpen that NH has thrown together
Jones..
Dan Johnson would have hit 3 homers and the cycle..
Anyways, Hopefully this means they keep Jones..You won’t be able to get in return what he means to your team.
'You won’t be able to get in return what he means to your team."
We won’t get it if we don’t trade him, that’s for sure.
Trading Jones..
for a AA player isn’t improving your team.. Especially after NH stated the team is close in his mind.
Trading Jones for a AA player improves your team...
…if the AA player is a better player than Jones, or is likely to become so in the near future, or is a player of approximately equal skill to Jones but at a position of greater need for the franchise (such as SS or SP).
With the giant caveat
That Jones is already an established, average MLB player. AA talents flame out at a high rate, especially pitchers. This would be a bit different if Jones were blocking anyone, but he’s not – not even close.
That said, I’d trade him for a stud* AA SS in a heartbeat.
- loosely defined – I don’t need A-Rod talent
Depends what you mean by "flame out".
Pitchers of all types are more likely to injure themselves than position players of all types, so in that sense trading Jones for an arm would be a risk. But beyond that, a talented player performing well in AA isn’t really any more likely to “flame out” than an established veteran is to collapse unexpectedly.
Primarily the arm thing
But I’d like to see evidence for “a talented player performing well in AA isn’t really any more likely to "flame out" than an established veteran is to collapse unexpectedly.”
I don’t know that you’re wrong, but I don’t necessarily think it’s true either, especially if you pull out established veterans above, say, 31.
I've read studies in the past.
Can’t really lay hands on anything at the moment, though.
If you wanted to take a look yourself, the proper way to look at it would probably to do age-based subgroups and look at the variance between current-year performance and future-year performance.
I'm also curious...
…as to why you don’t think Dan Johnson could manage a .770 OPS, per the discussion in the other thread. You never really provided any support for your position.
Because he goes on gut feeling...
he doesn’t really use evidence. We had a discussion in a game thread a couple of days ago where he was trying to convince me that Garrett Jones couldn’t hold Jeff Francouer’s jock. Needless to say I didn’t agree and the only evidence he used was the number of HR’s Francouer hit in his first season in Atlanta.
You never really provided support to..
Why Johnson has been rotting in AAA ball if he can put up numbers like that?
Jones is currently OPS is .783, it will continue to raise. He will be near .800 by years end.
Johnson put up decent numbers in 05, since then in the bigs his numbers haven’t been all that impressive. His Average is horrible. Jones will always have a decent average cause he has good plate presence.
Why?
It’s tough out there for a mid/late-20s guy who can only play 1B and DH. Pretty much anyody can play those positions, and there’s a lot of competition for relatively few openings. Johnson had one bad year in Oakland, got crowded out by Jack Cust and Daric Barton, couldn’t break onto a stacked Tampa roster (which had Carlos Pena and Cliff Floyd at the positions he could play), went to Japan to make some $$, then came back. Simple as that.
But the guy can hit. He’d be at least a Jones-level offensive 1B if needed.
Replace Jones with Johnson?
LOL.. Are you serious?
LOL.. Are you serious?Outside of the fact Jones has better avg, slugging, OBP, more Hits, More homers, Drives in more runs, is younger, and is signed for 5 years.. It makes sense.
LOL.. Are you serious?Outside of the fact Jones has better avg, slugging, OBP, more Hits, More homers, Drives in more runs, is younger, and is signed for 5 years.. It makes sense.Even if you look at Johnson 05 season, Jones could have a better year this year. His 162 Major League game projection is a OPS of .830. No reason why he couldn’t hit that. He is up to .786 right now.
I like what you’re doing here. What is this? A villanelle? The repetition is beautiful but I would recommend working on your imagery as well as the structure of your poem.
by getwonkafied on Jul 29, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks..
When you are someone, I will take your advice..
Have you looked at Johnson's minor league and NPB performances?
They’re much, much more impressive than anything Jones had ever done before his promotion last season.
This year, at AAA Durham, Johnson’s hitting .306/.432/.627 with 29 HR in only 330 AB. He’s destroying the competition. And in his nine seasons in the US minors, his lowest single-season OPS is a .847 in rookie ball. And of course, over his ML career, he’s been good for a .763 OPS and 22 HR per 162 games, so it’s not like he’s a total cipher.
But if you’d rather have Jones than a guy like Johnson AND whatever we got in trade for Jones (i.e. a Jones-level player at a position of greater need, or a solid prospect), so be it. I can only lead you to sense – I can’t make you drink it.
For the record:
The MLE calculator at Minor League Splits translates Johnson’s AAA performance this year to a MLB performance of .251/.353/.456, with 17 HR.
You used evidence and asked for some in return . . .
clearly the next step is strawmen and red herrings.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Oh, and don't think...
…that I don’t see you trying to move the goalposts. Your initial challenge in the other thread was to name a hitter who could put up a .770 OPS in Jones’s role. Now, you’re backing away from that, and trying to make it about whether Johnson would definitely out-hit Jones (as though any trade return we’d get back for Jones were an irrelevant consideration). I guess you don’t think you can defend the assertion about the .770 OPS anymore?
Just out of curiosity
Is it obvious that if we could get Johnson for nothing?
Just looking at the AL, Johnson’s MLE line is clearly better than the actual performance of the 1B and or DH for TB (Pena/Aybar), Tor (Overby/Lind) Chi (Kotsay) Tex (Smoak) and Sea (Kotchman/Bradley). It is hard to understand why he doesn’t have at least a bench job in the majors unless you are overlooking something in your argument.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 29, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
this is a hypothetical argument
so dont get into the minor details :-D
that said, Johnson would know that he d have a much better shot at getting time in the bigs with the Bucs than anyone else
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Silly WestCoastBuc
It is hard to understand why he doesn’t have at least a bench job in the majors unless you are overlooking something in your argument.
Vlad knows with absolute certainty that MiL track record and MLE are absolutely definitive. He was proven permanently correct by Garrett Jones last season. You probably don’t remember Jones, but he was some journeyman AAAA player who got hot for like a week last July, and everyone got excited about him, but Vlad sagely noted that, with his extensive MiL track record of mediocrity, there was no way – none whatsoever – that he’d stick in the bigs. I believe that he’s currently running the drive-thorugh window at a Wendy’s in Zielienople.
And that guy...
…has certainly continued mashing the ball in 2010, hasn’t he?
I’m glad that Jones got hot, that he stayed hot longer than I expected, and that he had a half-season of star-level performance for us. But subsequent events haven’t exactly invalidated my earlier position, have they?
But yes, your larger point is correct.
I can be as wrong as the next guy. My only defense to that is to say that you make a hell of a lot more money playing the percentages than you do by playing your gut.
Dammit
This came in the moment before my rather snarky “Dude” below, so sorry about that.
I certainly get playing the percentages. Where I think you in particular, and seamheads in general, go astray is in treating fuzzy percentages as providing a single, definitive number – a bit like treating a poll result within the margin of error as definitive.
The odds may well be that Johnson can perform as well as Jones, but we only get to run this experiment once, and if Jones is the 60 percentile case (relative to predicted performance) while Johnson is the 40 percentile case, then you’ve traded a bird in the hand for a chance to shake the bush in 2 years.
As I’ve said, here and elsewhere, I’m open to a trade of Jones. But I don’t think you can casually assume that Johnson==Jones, and therefore Jones’ trade return is pure bonus. It’s nice to know that a Johnson is out there if you need him, but, as noted above, if he were a sure thing, there are a dozen teams for whom he’d be an upgrade.
I’d also note, specifically on Jones, that his offensive numbers have generally been consistent in a way that doesn’t make me see an imminent dropoff (yes, he was hot in June and cold in July, but his April and May looked a lot like his season to date wOBA, and his K rate is rock-steady). IOW, there’s no particular basis for thinking he’s at peak value, for us or anyone else.
I don't think that Johnson = Jones.
Honestly, I think that Johnson’s probably better (albeit more limited in that he can’t play RF).
But you’re kind of looking at things backwards. The “bet”, such as it is, is that whatever we get for Jones will perform at a level equal to what Jones would have given us. If we aren’t confident of that, then we won’t be making the deal in the first place. And in that scenario, anything that we get from Johnson (or another Johnson-like player, such as the older of the two Chris Carters, if Johnson proves unavailable) is the bonus.
I don’t know that monthly splits are particularly meaningful when predicting an imminent dropoff. Roberto Alomar’s monthly splits in 2001 didn’t show any real weakness, for example – but that didn’t stop him from cratering in 2002. If you’re going to lose a step, you can do it just as easily in December as you can in July.
Regarding splits, I simply meant that, if Jones had gone (wOBA) .370, .350, .330, .310, I’d be eager to move him (if I could find someone who hadn’t noticed that trend). But I see a guy who’s continued to make adjustments and hit MLB pitching fairly consistently, with reasonably consistent power. He’s no more likely to turn into a pumpkin than anyone else (of a comparable profile).
As for looking at it backwards, that was simply how I was reading your argument, since you actually prefer Johnson to Jones. So I took you as saying that playing Johnson in place of Jones alone is a plus for the team, and that whatever we get for Jones is the bonus. Since I don’t see Jones returning a high odds prospect, I think there’s a decent chance that we get zero for him, and since I’m not sold on Johnson, it seems like a really dubious move.
The thing about trading for prospects – and I know you know this, but I want to be explicit in how I’m thinking of it – is that a fair trade is by expected value*. Most AA guys – prospects outside the top 50 – have a significant likelihood of zero MLB production.
Put it this way: if we were to trade a young 4.5 WAR player straight up for a AA guy, then the AA guy would have to be a stud – 90% likelihood of reaching the bigs, and if he reaches the bigs, then his median projected performance is 5 WAR for however many years of control the MLB guy will provide his new club. That’s a valuable player with a lot of upside, and you get him because the other team needs 4.5 WAR now, plus you take on that 10% risk.
But when you trade a 2.5 WAR guy like Jones, you’re not getting a 90% likely guy to give you 2.8 WAR. You’re taking a flyer on a guy who’s 33% likely to flameout and 67% likely to 3.75. Now that 2/3 chance of getting an extra win per season relative to Jones is nice. But there’s also a 1/3 chance that you’ve given up ~10 WAR for absolutely nothing.
I suppose this is just me being risk averse, but my feeling is that trading marginal pieces gets such marginal return that you only do it if you have a roster situation or if your predecessor left you a barren system (or someone makes you a great offer). But I think that a “fair” trade for Jones poses a too-large risk of sending him away for bupkis.
- that’s the case for every trade, of course, but when it’s major leaguer for major leaguer, the possibility of flameout is generally discounted
Part of my willingness to move Jones...
…comes from not being tied into getting a prospect for him. If you’re worried about variance from a prospect’s return, you’d probably still be OK with a deal like the Jones-for-Izturis one that Anaheim reportedly rejected, right?
If you are going to make veteran-for-prospect deals, the easiest way to moderate risk is to make a lot of them at the same time, of course. That way, you have lots of different lottery tickets, and you’ll probably have one or two that pan out. Even if one or two of your individual trades look bad in retrospect, in the aggregate your actual results track the expected return pretty closely.
Dude
Your position was that you’d “die” if he reached 20 HRs last year. He did, with 1 to spare. He’s on pace to hit 23 this year, with an OPS of .800 (per ZiPS). His numbers are better in the bigs (whether you look at only this year or all 3 seasons) than they were in the minors.
Go ahead and show me where that was your prediction for him. You insisted (over and over and over) that the guy was crap, and that he was getting lucky for a few weeks. RC+ of 114 over 100 games is not what you were being so vehement about.
You were correct that he was not likely to be the next Pujols. So good job beating down that particular strawman.
So your position...
…is that I’m not going to die?
On a long enough time frame, everybody dies. That’s the safest bet of all possible bets.
No
I can’t figure out why you didn’t die. I can only assume that you had done the math wrong in the first place.
Big man doesn't want me yet, I guess.
Get there sooner or later, though. It’s just the way of things.
Seems pretty likely.
He’s not on Tampa’s 40-man roster, so he’ll be a minor league FA at the end of the season if they don’t roster him before then. And roster space for them is going to be very tight, given the large number of Rule 5 eligible prospects in their system. A 40-man spot for Johnson (whom they don’t really need) is a roster spot they can’t use on a guy like Aneury Rodriguez.
Now, it's certainly possible...
…that he might have an under-the-table agreement to return to Tampa in 2011 or something like that. But if that’s the case, you scratch his name off and move on to the next guy down on your list.
What about both Jones and Johnson at RF and 1B? Steve Pearce would get some matchup play if healthy. Johnson would be in the 7 spot in the lineup since you don’t want to stack too many lefties.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 29, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Rinku and Dinesh
Good control. It all starts there.
Yeah
Too many hits, but if your K/BB rate is 4:1 or 6:1 while you K over 1/INN, you can go somewhere. I think it would be huge for the club to get both of these guys into full season ball, ideally as far as Altoona, where it would really make a buzz in the local South Asian community.
Also, I can’t tell you how pleased I am that Ngeope seems to be the real deal. A long way to go yet, but he could be in high-A by next summer.
I saw Ngeope at State College.....
I am a believer in him as a front-of-the-lineup place setter with high OBP and some pop that may turn into a gap-to-gap hitter. He also looked pretty fluid on defense.
I was most impressed with him out of the position players from the game I saw.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 29, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Ledezma ...
is exactly why you don’t draft RPs early in the draft.
He did look impressive with the 95 mph heat last night.
Who knows what will happen? He was great at Indy. He’s flopped in the majors. But if he can control his fastball, I think he’ll be around for a while.
Longtime Ledezma fan
The key for him is that until this season his platoon splits were awful, which is to say that he didn’t have one. If he can keep getting lefties out the way that he was in AAA he could be a very nice addition.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jul 29, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Cutch
DY
NFW
GI Jones
El Toro
AAAAAGHHGHHH
Crosby
JJ
Pauly
Have to remind you, this is the lineup we send out against Ubaldo. Nice…..
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
I'm guessing
“AAAAAGHHGHHH” is Ryan Church. Prediction: 4K’s on 15 pitches or less with no contact whatsoever.
for a while
I was like Milledge isnt the best but he isnt AAAAGHGHGHHHHH!!! Then I saw your reply :P
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
I’ll go with the 4Ks, but 15 pitches is a bit too much
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Church will find a way. If you swing twice at one changeup I think you get 2 strikes. Look for that.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 29, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You weren't too far off...
he saw 18 pitches in 4 PA…2 K’s and a walk. And another ofer.
also
I really wish they’d give Cutch a few days off… the shoulder needs to get all the way back… i hate this in a season where there’s little to play for for Cutch…
Also, Crosby and JJ… that 6-9 is a black hole, Alvarez must feel real good in that 5 spot… a chance to raise that OBP a good bit, if he s careful
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
He could probably draw a few walks. Ubaldo will probably go after him like everyone else, but if Pedro gets up 2-0 or 3-1 in a count, I don’t think he has a hesitation of walking him with that rabble behind him.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
White Sox looking for a LH Bat and a mid-rotation starter
Hmm… seems we have both, eh?
We don’t really need Tyler Flowers with Sanchez in the system, so maybe the White Sox would prefer to deal with us over Washington and Dunn.
I’d demand Dan Hudson and go from there. I think a Jones/Maholm package would bring back at least two of Chicago’s top prospects, possibly three. To acquire Maholm and Jones would give the White Sox a huge lift.
I wouldn’t mind Hudson. He’s got a nice 94-95mph fastball and he’s got good size. Plus, he’s still only 23 so he’s got a lot of growth left. I still would hate to give up Maholm & Jones…but if we can get Hudson, Viciedo to play 1st base and maybe a lower level A or AA prospect, that wouldn’t be bad.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it would take a really desperate White Sox team to acquire both..
..only because NH probably won’t deal them for fair value, as that would completely destroy the 2010 team and be a huge risk going into 2011.
Ya
Hudson, Vicideo and someone else would be a huge haul. Vicideo could outproduce Jones next year and Hudson is worth more than Maholm
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 29, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Doubt Jones would mind too much
He grew up in the southern Chicago suburbs as a White Sox fan. Gotta be fun for guys to go back home and play for the team they grew up rooting for. I’ll miss him if they deal him. He’s been fun to follow and whether he stays or goes, I always enjoy seeing guys get a chance and make something special of it. He may not be in the top 50th percentile of 1B or RFers, but then not many people on earth can hit a 90something MPH pitched ball 400 feet.
by RichieHebner on Jul 30, 2010 12:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ya
Taillon and Allie who!
That’s our 2014 top of the rotation. The Indian Sensation (best I could come up with in 15 seconds, it kinda rhymes)
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 29, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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