Nationals Trade Matt Capps To Twins
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 29, 2010 9:56 PM EDT
Email
PrintIt's been clear for some time that the Matt Capps non-tender was a dumb idea, but this is why I thought it was a dumb idea.
According to a source with knowledge of the Nationals situation, the Twins, Yankees, White Sox and Braves are all in on the All-Star closer.
The move makes sense for the Twins. Brian Duensing is now in the starting rotation and they need to shore up the bullpen. It's likely that Capps would close while Jon Rauch moves back to a set up role. I mean it would be hard for me to see Capps become a set up guy after being named an All-Star as a closer.
Capps had a terrible 2009 season, but he's pitched in 2010 as if 2009 never happened. I'd be lying if I said I thought that was likely, but I did think it was at least a possibility, and it was worth investing a few million dollars to find out if Capps might be able to regain his luster - not only because the Pirates would benefit directly from his pitching, but because they could eventually deal him. The Bucs' acquisition of Octavio Dotel softened the blow somewhat, but now both are on the market, and I bet Capps brings back more, because he's younger.
UPDATE: The Twins have, in fact, acquired Matt Capps for minor league catcher Wilson Ramos, who's hit poorly this year as a 22-year-old at Class AAA Rochester. He hit well for average before that, though, and has a strong defensive reputation.
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Meh
Capps is okay this year. We probably should have held on to him or traded him for something, but unless he goes for a top tier prospect, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 29, 2010 10:02 PM EDT reply actions
Okay, now I might lose a bit of sleep.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Well the latest rumor is Capps to the Twins for Wilson Ramos...
If that deal goes down it will sting a bit. I too that it was a dumb idea but I never expected him to completely regain form. Be prepared for the “I told you so” article in the Post Gazette tomorrow.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/twins-discussing-matt-capps.html
HOW IS IT JUSTIFIED, SON?
CAPPS WAS FLAT OUT STUNK LAST YEAR. NO WAY WAS HE WORTH THE GAMBLE OF GIVING HIM A RAISE JUST SO WE COULD FLIP HIM FROM SOME BORDERLINE PROSPECT. IF HE STAYED IN PITTSBURGH ALL HE WOULD DONE STAND IN THE WAY OF HANRAHAN OR MEEK EVENTUALLY BECOME THE CLOSER. DOTEL IS A BETTER PITCHER AND BETTER VALUE FOR THE DOLLAR THAN CAPPS.
SHREWD MOVE BY HUNTINGTON.
If you'd like a legitimate response to your posts...
then please stop referring to me as son. It’s a bit condescending. To asnwer your question, I don’t think Capps would have stood in those guys’ way anymore than Dotel has. Dotel cost roughly the same amount as Capps and Capps has performed better so by that standard Dotel was not better money on the dollar. Huntington played the percentages going after Dotel so I can understand his thinking but Capps had only had one to one and half bad seasons so there was a pretty good chance he would have bounced back some. As I stated above I didn’t expect him to perform as well as he did but with the size of the payroll this year I think there was enough room to add Capps and another pitcher if Dotel didn’t want to sign on as a setup man.
Do you even READ
what gets posted in response to you?
BTW – the “C.U.N.T.” screenname is a bit juvenile for someone continually calling other posters (quite insultingly) “Son,”
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
when you take it all into account…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
SURE I READ THE RESPONSES, SON
SLICK SAID THAT CAPPS “ONLY” HAD ONE AND A HALF BAD SEASONS(
). HE ALSO FAILED TO MENTION THAT CAPPS THREW NOTHING BUT FLAT FASTBALLS OVER THE PLATE AND MENTIONED NOTHING ABOUT HIS BURGEONING POT BELLY AND TRIPLE CHIN.
IF CAPPS DESERVED A RAISE BECAUSE SUCKED FOR A SEASON AND A HALF WHY NOT SIGN RYAN CHURCH TO A LONG TERM DEAL BECAUSE HE ONLY HAD A BAD FIRST HALF. 
Well, since you DO read the responses...
why are you unable (or unwilling) to turn off your capslock, ans why do you keep referring to other posters as “Son?”
Trolling?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
he replied when he posted under the name HARRYCOX
thats how he rolls son!
by karreemofwheat on Jul 30, 2010 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions
All Caps
I refuse to read something written in all caps. I just assume you are an idiot and will therefore have an idiotic opinion.
by uneasy rider on Jul 30, 2010 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions
POSTING IN ALL CAPS IN THIS THREAD IS
QUITE APPROPRIATE, SON..
ALL CAPS = ALL CAPPS. GET IT? 
ON AN UNRELATED NOTE: MY WIFE HASN’T SAID TWO WORDS TO ME SINCE SHE CAUGHT ME DOING “THE ROBOT” TO HER CHER’S GREATEST HIT C.D. LAST NIGHT 
You...
Have a .. wife?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And it’s kind of really pathetic that his email “address” lead to a “dick” website…
JUST LIKE HARRY COX.
Coincidence? I think not.
I just wish I had half as much of the time as “he” does to spend trolling.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 30, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Just read on teh twitterz...
Matt Capps traded to the Minnesota Twins for Wilson Ramos.
Baseball America ranked him as the 58th best prospect in baseball before this season.
Average D
Having just an OK year at the plate, but still a great trade for the Nats.
Yeah...
They can’t have Ivan Rodriquez catching forever.
by IAPiratesFan on Jul 29, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Good deal for the Nats
But this guy is not Carlos Santana, so let’s not get carried away. He’ll need to improve his plate discipline big time or he’ll be a career backup catcher.
Agreed
Ramos has an ops in the mid .600 at AAA.
He’s a defensive-minded catcher who doesn’t walk much.
It’s an okay return. But I think people get too caught up in BA prospect rankings.
Also, I probably would have gone to arbitration with Capps.
But it’s hard to vilify NH over this call. Capps was really, really bad last year. His conditioning was terrible. His attitude seemed worse.
Strong disagree
Ramos OPSed > 774 everywhere (and the lowest was in rookie ball in the GCL), and the OPS has been consistent at every stop…
he’s taken some time to adjust to AAA- and his OPS by month in AAA are .535, .464, .659, .739
He may be overrated but its not a given and the defense at least in the CS rate is good (never seen him play, dont know), but I’d give BA the benefit of doubt on this one…
And I thought it was silly to non-tender Capps, but I would never have expected Ramos back for him- Rizzo did well, Twins had a brain-fade, something…
by BurgherKing on Jul 30, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
See your disagree and raise you
I live in Rochester and hear he’s not always motivated to play. I don’t know if that has to do with being behind Mauer, but he might just be moping through this year. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if his AAA numbers this year end up an outlier.
You could read “not motivated because he’s behind Mauer” into “not motivated whenever the going gets tough”.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't have turned it around.
It’s hard to say if Capps would have had the success he has in DC in Pittsburgh. He was in bad shape last season and his numbers reflected it. Maybe he needed the wake up call. I agree that NH made a very understandable decision.
by uneasy rider on Jul 30, 2010 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you have a huge board like Colbert?
Just a big list of “Dead To Me”.
by IAPiratesFan on Jul 29, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, it's huge,
I just don’t call it a “board.”
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
.Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Gentlemen, you can't whine and complain in here! This is Smizik's Blog!
by IAPiratesFan on Jul 29, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I lol'd.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
This smells kinda like Alderson for Sanchez, doesn't it?
As in, we’ll all soon discover that something was/is seriously wrong with Ramos.
he has a OB% if ,280. I’d say there’s something wrong there
by Danatural08 on Jul 29, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
UGGGGGH
Capps is garbage. How the hell did they manage to steal someone like Ramos? That guy is going to be a star, he was lighting it up before when Mauer was out. Granted the Twinkies probably saw him as expendable because there is a -0% chance Ramos becomes the starting catcher in the next 10 years, but come on, giving him away for Capps?
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
Ramos was lighting it up when Mauer was out
but then they started throwing him curveballs
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Jul 29, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes this is true.
It’s also true that the kid is only 22 years old, he’s GOING to improve no doubt, and now he’s headed to the NL & a Nats team where he’ll face no pressure to perform immediately. Unlike in Minnesota, where he was expected to come in and help the team win every game.
Good luck to you boys with Capps, I’m not a believer in the man at all after seeing him play here for some time. Maybe he’ll even be an improvement over Rauch, although I don’t see how. I just wouldn’t have moved Ramos so easily for a player that won’t have a place on the team once Nathan comes back next year.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramos
That’s better than I thought Washington would do. But here’s his stats at AAA:
278 AB, 5 HR, .241 BA, .625 OPS. And he’s walked 12 times all year.
There’s not a lot that screams future all-star to me.
Since when are AAA stats the end all and be all of predictions?
Guys can shred the minors and then do nothing in the majors. Guys can also be very mediocre statistically in the minors yet have great careers. His defense is great and that’s his plus value, like I said below, I’d much rather have catcher who can play defense rather than offense. That’s the one position I don’t mind sacrificing offense. If there’s anything Doumit has taught us, that’s it.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
AAA stats ...
are usually highly predictive at the MLB level.
You have occasional exceptions, e.g., Neil Walker. He hit for a mediocre average at AAA and has done well at MLB. But that’s why he’s the exception.
Guys usually do far worse in the majors than at AAA.
I just don’t see anything special. Sorry. I see a player worth Matt Capps. That’s what a defensive catcher hitting .250 with no walks or power is worth.
Not AAA numbers alone
You need to look at his numbers across his MiL career, which have been more than acceptable for a strong defensive C. The fact that he hasn’t looked like Gary Carter in his first 4 months at AAA doesn’t mean much compared with 3 previous years of MiL success.
JRoth
My point is that I don’t think his other years show that much. He doesn’t walk. And he doesn’t hit for power. The numbers are just okay. And it’s always worrisome when someone falls so dramatically at AAA.
I think he’s a good prospect for Capps.
But my point is not to overstate the return or suggest NH made an unacceptable blunder.
Fair enough
I just think people are being very quick to dismiss the guy. Presumably Baseball Prospectus spent at least as much time looking at the guy as a bunch of internet commenters who basically never heard of him before this trade.
He wouldn’t have been traded for Capps if this had been a breakout season, but I don’t think the guy is an Alderson (basically, a broken prospect).
Alderson wasn't really...
…a “broken prospect” when we traded for him, either. A return of his velocity with rest and/or mechanical adjustments was seen as a realistic possiblity (which it still is, I guess – just less likely now than it was then).
Yeah
I thought about putting a caveat in there – I didn’t so much mean pretrade Alderson as Alderson now, but pretrade Alderson was also plummeting in value in a way that I don’t think Ramos is/was. Ramos has taken a hit in value but I don’t think he was destined for AA or about to be passed by lesser catchers on their way up.
I'm not dismissing him
But let’s not ignore the flaws in his game either. Not being able to control the strike zone is a huge deal for a soon to be 23 year old.
Hey!
The Doyers have DFA’d Jack Taschner.
Mebbe we could get HIM back?
[/sarcasm]
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Let’s see here. Matt Capps and Jesse Chavez are with other organizations and all we have to show for those two players is…….Aki Iwamura???
Matt Capps
1) had moved up through the Pirate organization quickly
2) reached the majors at a young age
3) had some highly impressive years as a setup man and a closer
4) after one bad season, we let him go despite his impressive resume
How can we expect to have a competitive team when our leadership is so unwilling to think competitively? Is there another team in baseball that would have cut Capps under similar circumstances?
Chavez was the same idea, but at least we got a live body (and not much else) back for him.
Chavez
was a dime a dozen.
See how quickly he was flipped?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He was also our best reliever last year. So good, in fact, that we overused his arm to the point where his performance suffered the last 45 days of the season.
He was ALSO
easily replaced.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 29, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
true
That is why I’m in favor of trading Hanrahan, Dotel, and Meek. Relief pitching is the most unpredictable, replaceable position in MLB.
Uhh
This is a joke, right?
Statistically, he was the 2nd worst pitcher on the entire staff with a WAR of -1.1. I also don’t have a clue how we “overused” a closer who only threw 50 innings last year. Chavez pitched quite a bit more than Capps and would you make the case he was “overused” as well? Probably didn’t cross your mind since Chavez was consistent all season.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Soriano
Well, the Rays turned him into Rafael Soriano. Soriano has been great.
by uneasy rider on Jul 30, 2010 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Well ...
if you look at what he’s provided and what he likely could be flipped for, I’m not so sure.
Also, I suspect he would have been a type A free agent. That would have been valuable if the team offered arbitration.
I’m not saying that I would have put the $s into him. But Soriano, when healthy, is much better than Dotel now.
1) Why does that matter?
2) Good for him, so have a bunch of players.
3) He did? Like when? Highly impressive or highly mediocre on a bad bullpen that made him look good?
4) I don’t see any impressive resume. He’s a league average reliever at best.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
wow
that is a huge return for Matt Capps…
Not sure why the Twins would move one of their best trade chips for Capps, something stinks here…
I was not a fan of DFAing Capps, but I cannot believe he brought back this return!
Ramos
18 walks in his last 500 minor league plate appearances. Even guys who hardly ever walk in the majors, like Miguel Olivo and Jeff Francoeur, walked more than that in the minors. If he doesn’t change his approach, he won’t be an MLB starter.
well
i m pretty sure BA knew that when they were ranking him in the top 100 2 years in a row… his plate discipline doesnt figure to improve much, but I guess they feel his bat can keep his OPS up… which along with playing good defense is a good starting catcher in MLB…
may not be elite, like Mauer, but certainly the second tier of catchers
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense ...
is the key to the ranking.
I don’t see where a .625 OPS makes you a future star.
why do you want to go by AAA OPS only?
with a half season worth of data? He’s OPSed around 780 in every stop, and his July AAA performance is pretty good- its not uncommon for prospects to have some trouble as they advance, and you should note he is a 22 yo in AAA
He may not even be a star, but if you can get a solid league average catcher with great defense for Capps, that s a huge win
by BurgherKing on Jul 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Burgher
First, he’s almost 23. He is days away. He’s not Tabata.
Second, he didn’t walk throughout the minors. Problem.
Third, I don’t see the bat you do. An OPS in the .700s in the low to mid minors doesn’t mean a lot to me. (See Moss and LaRoche.)
I don’t see anything special in his minor league stats as a hitter. And I think the inability to walk will be problematic at the MLB level.
Cripes
Enough with the “that’s not his age, his real birthday is X” stuff. Stats about performance at ages/levels is driven by a uniform cutoff. Unless a guy is near the cutoff one way or another (i.e., either in the youngest or oldest 1/12 of his cohort), then it doesn’t make your argument. A guy who’s 22 for most of his first AAA season is young(ish) for the level, and should be given some slack. Otherwise, you need to presume that all good players reach the bigs during their 24th year (when they’re 23, that is).
I agree that the walk situation is a concern, but people trying to devalue the guy are basically leaning entirely on his AAA adjustment period, which is a crap argument.
No
His success at AA last year was based on a .345 BABIP, which is completely unsustainable for a catcher.
This is kind of a side point...
…but I don’t know that a .345 BABIP is necessarily unsustainable for all catchers anywhere, ever. In Kendall’s last three seasons before he tore the thumb tendon, for instance, his full-season BABIPs were .340, .348, and .349.
Agreed
But Sickels describes Ramos as not very athletic, so my assumption is that he’s much more of a “typical catcher” than Kendall, who I think you’ll agree was exceptionally fast for a catcher.
JRoth
I like him. My point is that I don’t consider him an elite prospect (such as Alvarez).
He’s had an exceptionally difficult transition to AAA. He continues his pattern of not walking. He’s the AAA version of Gorkys with the bat.
He’ll be 23 in mid August and will play at AAA next year, I suspect.
Finally, the Twins never give up good prospects in trades and were willing to trade him for Capps, a guy the team will likely non-tender.
I’m just saying keep those things in mind. I see more of a low-level starter of backup as his future. Just my prediction.
Garza ...
was not a prospect. He was a good pitcher traded for a promising hitter. But both guys had played in the majors.
Garza was not real established when traded IIRC.
Either way, the point still holds the same because the Twins don’t trade their young talented players. At the point Garza was dealt he had way more value than a prospect.
I'm being like my son and arguing ...
Garza had played one year and was viewed as a future star.
Delmon Young had had a solid first year.
It was a trade of solid young players. That’s very different from what I said: The Twins don’t give up good prospects for rentals.
Now they may have done so. I just can’t think of any in recent years.
Your revised post is better...
It was a trade of solid young players. That’s very different from what I said: The Twins don’t give up good prospects for rentals.
This I agree with.
understatement alert
but if you can get a solid league average catcher with great defense for Capps, that s a huge win
This is a really a huge understatement. It’s closer to a “theft” to trade a starting catcher for an average closer.
Yinzers uber alles
U DON'T KNO WHAT UR TALKING ABOUT
CAPPPS IS A ALETE PICHUR.
HE WUN THE ALSTARR GAME.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 30, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
would you be happy if this was deal for Dotel? I guess this was about what I’m expecting for him….I actually am kinda hoping we don’t trade him, just because i’d like to see our team strength continue next year
uh
I d trade him in a heartbeat for something like this…
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
thats what i thought at first< bc I’d heard of ramos being highly ranked by BA, but he’s got a .280 OB% that makes Cedeno look good
by Danatural08 on Jul 29, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i wonder if the Twins feel that
he might be about to fall off a cliff?
The Twins are smart, and if the recent rave reviews were true, then Ramos could have been a centerpiece in a deal for a star level player, or at least the level of Dunn… I m surprised here, I must admit
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
It is probably some of that
mixed with a healthy dose of we-really-have-no-need-for-Ramos along with a belief that they have a shot to win this year. Accordingly, let’s ride this guy for three months (they hope) at the back of the bullpen.
I think they’ve miscalculated. Capps looks like the sort of guy who can get lit-up as easily as not on any given night in the American League. Hell, only one closer has been truly consistent closing games in the AL over the last 15 years.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
Ramos's motivation in 2010
He’s 22. As I wrote further upthread, he might not have had his head on right this year, thinking he wasn’t getting a fair shake (or something) because of Mauer. I hear (and witness) that he doesn’t always appear motivated to play on a given night. The Twins might have read this as a bad attitude that won’t change. But changes of scenery can change attitudes. I don’t think his AAA line is the best indicator of his talent.
What 22 year old....
in AAA thinks he’s getting screwed? Suggesting he might not have his head on straight suggests he’s an idiot. There is always the possibility of a trade and he knows that. Mauer is the MVP, not getting a fair shake is a joke. He might have looked at it as an opportunity to learn from the best in the game.
What 22yo
doesn’t think he knows everything? Some people have a sense of entitlement. Are you suggesting he’s the first guy ever to mope around because he thinks deserves to be in the bigs? I’m not saying it’s appropriate if true, I’m just saying his numbers could be viewed in that context.
That seems....
to me to be a lot of psychoanalysis. Could be right, but I’d like to see something out there to back it up. You would think this far into the season someone would have written about it if it is true.
If anything
This is great for Dotel, because it sets a standard for what price good closers will get in return. Any other closer on the move in the next few days will be judged by this move.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I see this as good news for us...
because:
1.) It sets the bar higher than I expected as far as return for a bullpen arm.
2.) That’s one less arm on the market, and I may be wrong, but I hadnt heard of the Twins as one of the teams interested in Dotel
I dont think so wrt market
Just like the Haren trade wont necessarily mean top flight pitchers get moved for less, this trade doesnt mean other teams will start overvaluing closers… I hope they do, but I have my doubts
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo…
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Can somebody let me in on the big deal about Wilson Ramos? He was supposedly a competitive trade chip for Cliff Lee, whereas to me he’s not in the same galaxy as Jesus Montero or even Justin Smoak (who I’m less high on than Montero).
The batting line stinks this year. Tough home park?
How does a 22 year old hitting .296 in his first MLB call up stink?
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell me honestly that you wouldn’t do that trade if you were in Washington’s shoes.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I would
Because Capps isn’t worth all that much. But Ramos is far from a sure-fire MLB starter, let alone a star. He’s relatively young so he’s got time to figure it out, but his lack of plate discipline is troubling. I question whether he’ll hit enough to be an everyday player.
At least his defense is supposed to be excellent, so his floor is probably an MLB backup catcher.
He’s going to start in Washington, because they have nobody else. After Pudge retires/leaves that is. But if there’s one position on the diamond I’d be most willing to sacrifice a bat for good defense, it’d be catcher. Nats can find offense from other places. We’ve seen it first hand, if a catcher can hit but can’t play defense, he has very few uses to anyone.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Two things ...
He’s days away from being 23 and only had a handful of at bats. The average means nothing.
Then neither do his AAA stats.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 30, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
His AAA stats ...
are based on 295 appearances. The MLB stats are based on 19.
I’m pretty sure that a statistician will tell you the AAA stats are far more predictive.
Actually
The statistician would say that 295 PAs doesn’t tell you much at all. Especially compared with the previous 1122.
He'd say both, and other things as well.
All the PAs count. Larger samples are more helpful than smaller ones, and more recent samples are more helpful than older ones. So the 2010 problems clip his value a bit, but don’t totally negate it.
Oh, you can't dismiss his AAA
I didn’t mean to say you could – I just meant that treating that 295 PA sample as definitive is silly – it’s not that large (and indeed, if he continues to improve as he has, his OPS across a 450 PA season could well be .700+), and it should properly be attached to the previous 1100.
JRoth
Well, as someone who has done statistics for 10 years as part of his job, I’d disagree. I think you need to look at the previous 1,122 much closer. As noted above his BABIP is not going to last.
I see an .800 OPS at the lower levels as interesting. But when you combine it with the peripheral statistics, I’m not as wowed.
He’s been awful at AAA. I think it’s just as likely that he’s a guy who flames out at that level as a guy who “adjusts” to AAA.
Sanchez ....
Is only 10 month younger and has 375AB total none high than in A ball. Ramos had good numbers in A ball. If he is as reported a good defensive catcher, isn’t he a similar prospect to Sanchez?
Eh, yes and no.
Sanchez has a rep as not just a good defender, but the best defensive catcher in the entire minors. Which bolsters his value against someone who’s just above-average.
Wow
Is his rep really that good? I mean, I knew he was supposed to be MLB-ready at his draft, but best in the whole minors is… pretty awesome. Hope it’s true (and that he continues to hit, of course).
At the start of the year...
…BA picked him as the best defensive catcher in the minors. (Think there might’ve been a post about it at the time.)
Just one opinion, of course, and they could be wrong. But it’s still nice to hear.
Absolutely nice to hear
I really hope he lights it up in Arizona this Fall and can either start ’11 in Altoona or be in line for a May promotion. It would be nice to have him competing for the job in ST ’12.
I hadnt heard much ado about Ramos till this year
but I admit this is strange… and there’s something funny going on… he’s sucked this year, and I have to think the Twins believe this is the real Ramos, else they wouldnt have traded him for Capps…
I can see why he would be a major piece if he is a good defender (>40% CS-yes, I know its not everything but its all there is data on), and can OPS 750+, even if he doesnt walk much…
That said, I m confused here
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
B- coming into the year, has to be a C+ or straight C now given this year’s performance or lack thereof.
I can see how Ramos is fair value for Matt Capps, but not how he sprang up in Cliff Lee discussions.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 29, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Hicks was the centerpiece of the Lee deal
Ramos was just another guy in the mix – a Brandon Moss type, if you will.
calling Ramos Brandon Moss type
is significantly short changing him…
he might be able to put up Moss’ OPS while providing solid defense at catcher
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
He's OPSing .625
In AAA this year. I know he’s toolsy, but he cannot draw a walk. It’s a serious problem.
I agree
as I said earlier, the Twins may have some reason to believe that the guy OPSing 625 is the real Wilson Ramos, but in every stop before this, the bat has played well…
he’s 22… he’s had a disappointing season in AAA, but its too early to say he cant be a big league starter with that track record, esp at catcher
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
He has also hit better in June and July...
looks like he had trouble adjusting to AAA. Wouldn’t be the 1st time that’s happened to a prospect.
Maybe he isn’t looking for it?
A player like Ramos who wants to prove that he can hit as well as play defense, isn’t going to go up to the plate all confident in drawing a walk. No, he’s going to swing and try to make something happen. Granted the rates were very low but still. Walker bearly walked (ironic, I know), so what?
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 29, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
thats not a v good idea
and it doesnt lead to good things…
but I take your point, he might still be able to learn… def has time
by BurgherKing on Jul 30, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I realize it’s not a solid idea, but we can’t deny it happens. Especially with a young prospect that really wants to prove himself at the plate. They try and do too much, want to drive the ball every time up instead of being smart about it.
I would guess this is what has happened to Ramos, especially after having a fairly successful stint in the majors earlier this year.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 30, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
he s more than fair value for Capps
much much more… or so I think now
by BurgherKing on Jul 29, 2010 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of scouts are of the opinion...
…that Ramos’s batting slumped this year because he got frustrated knowing that he was trapped behind Mauer and no matter how well he played he didn’t have a shot at the big club. As such, he lost focus, and hit like crap for three months.
Is that really true? Who can say?
Nobody. Other than Ramos himself, and even he probably wouldn’t admit that.
But you’d have to think it was likely, maybe he wanted to get moved all along? He probably knew from the beginning that he had absolutely no chance at playing for the Twins, at least not without making a position change. Of every team in the majors, trying to become catcher of the Twins now is about the most impossible feat to accomplish. Surely he’ll be happier now that he’s in a place where he has a chance at being the Opening Day starting catcher next year.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 30, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
That was the consensus on all intelligent Twins boards.
He and Glen Perkins were in a 3-month sulk-fest.
by tobynotjason on Jul 30, 2010 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
It certainly explains Gorkys Hernandez’s struggles—he’s lost all focus because he knows Andrew McCutchen is blocking him two levels away.
/sarcasm
If you can play CF, you can play any outfield position.
But if you’re a catcher, you….are a catcher. It takes quite a bit of time to convert to another position
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
by BobPurkey34 on Jul 30, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Bob
Agreed. A CF can usually play other positions.
But do you really think Gorkys projects as a corner outfielder?
He’d be wonderful defensively while providing a Ryan Church-like OPS.
Now now
Nyjer’s OPS was just a touch above Church’s: when we traded him, it was about .200 higher than Church’s current number.
As I’ve said, Gorkys looks a lot better in an org that doesn’t have both Cutch (worse glove, much better power and OBP) and Tabata (comparable glove, better bat) ahead of him. Tabata wasn’t a lock to succeed, but now that he has made the transition (still a long way to go, but he’ll start at least through mid-‘11 no matter what happens next), it’s hard to see a role for Gorkys.
Just sayin'.
Nyjer was plenty popular as our starting LF: plus corner defender, but only a 90 OPS+. Which isn’t Church, but isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, either.
I don’t think it’s out of the question that Gorkys could get up to a 90 OPS+ in the bigs. Though even if he does, it’s more likely that he’d either settle in as a 4th/5th OF or get traded to a team in need of a CF.
Vlad
I don’t think any serious baseball analyst sees Nyjer as a key player on a winning team.
He played a role on a terrible Pirates team. He was flipped for a player, I believe, will have more long-term value.
But Nyjer won’t be playing on the Yankees any time soon.
Well, he was having a historically great season as a defender; Gorkys’ glove is great, but there’s no particular reason to think that he’d instantly become the best OF in all of baseball (of course, NyjMo wasn’t really that, either, but he played like he was for ~100 games).
But anyway, the main point is the other pieces we have in hand. If Tabata had flamed out, or turned out to be 34 years old, then people would be a lot more excited about GH’s progress. As it is, the only way for him to start for us is for him to get to an entirely new offensive level (which nobody predicts) or for something bad to happen to Tabata or Cutch (which nobody wants). Even if Milledge goes away for whatever reason, it’s very unlikely that GH could or would replace him – his defense is much less valuable in RF, and a better bat with adequate defense there can always be found.
There is the possibility of moving Cutch over there, given that he apparently is the worst glove of the 3, but that still doesn’t make a ton of sense – that 3, in that alignment, doesn’t give you more WAR than the current two plus any number of readily available slugging RFs (Jones would likely be a non-factor by then, but he’s an example – a guy whose glove and bat are both just a bit below league average for RF, while GH’s bat would be among the worst of RFs, with a glove saving maybe a marginal game per year, because there’s not that many runs to be saved relative to Jones or Cutch, depending how you want to calculate).
Really?
Other than the DK blog crowd, who thought Nyjer in left was a good idea?
You really think a team wins a World Series with Nyjer as a corner outfielder.
I don’t think.
World Series, no
But he was worth 2 WAR in 71 games as our LF. Plenty of competitive teams would be happy with 4.4 WAR from a corner outfielder (particularly one making league minimum). Especially ones that play in spacious parks where a big bat, weak glove guy would be really exposed.
Well ...
I think Nyjer as a CI had value in a team needing defense.
But he’d be pretty worthless in a hitters park, as you note.
Moreover, that was Nyjer’s time to excel. He’s clearly, I believe, a player in decline. I think NH got that one right.
Vlad ...
I thought you stayed away from scouts and their amateur psychology.
I think that it's worth reporting in this case...
…insofar as the perception among scouts may have affected his trade value, and allowed him to keep more of his prospect luster than he would have otherwise.
I was careful not to take a position as to whether or not it was true, because I don’t (and can’t) have an answer there.
Plus
Aside from his actual psychology, the point about trade value is major: the Twins would value him less than any other team in the league. Obviously, you try not to let that impact a trade (you trade based on the other guy’s valuation of your player and your valuation of his), but the simple reality is that, if the Nats wanted (say) an arm that was actually rated a bit lower than Ramos, but was more valuable to the Twins, then they could offer Ramos instead and keep the arm.
What I’m saying is that Ramos’ value to the Twins was limited to trade bait and backup/insurance for Mauer. And he (probably) has more value as a 22-y.o. prospect than as a 24-y.o. backup.
Just giving you a hard time ...
That just seemed an anti-Vlad post.
This hurts a bit
and I’m usually pretty critical of the front office, but Capps stunk for the last 2 years. He got hit hard every time he went out there. You can point to the abnormally high BABIP last year, but the fact is when every ball is scorched, that number will be abnormally high. Maybe he has some more zip on his fastball this year? There was nothing more annoying than him throwing 5 run of the mill fastballs in a row in the 9th inning praying the batter hits it at someone.
Ramos right now...
…is in kind of the same spot that guys like Tabata and Alderson were when we traded for them. He’s a high risk, high reward player with good tools, coming off a disappointing half-season.
It would’ve been nice to get him in a deal. But I think we need to wait and see what Dotel brings back to have an accurate basis for comparison. Shouldn’t take more than a day or two, I wouldn’t think.
These are good points. Ramos could be another Tabata. I wouldn’t bet on it, though. He’s a bit older then when we got Jose, though, so that may effect his chances a bit.
I think we actually will get something for Dotel, after taking a closer look at the market. Do you want Dotel or Matt Capps pitching in a clutch situation with the season on the line? Of course not.
But if you have an injury or two, and all of a sudden someone like Jack Taschner is up with the major league team, the situation is different.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe ...
I don’t see the high reward based on his minor league statistics. Little power. No patience. Weak pitch selection.
He looks like he could hit for an okay average at the MLB level. I suspect he’ll be far more of a defensive catcher.
And yes, you are right. You need to see what Dotel brings back to evaluate NH’s move.
That being said, the Twins made Ramos available this year. The Twins are reluctant to ever trade a top prospect, particularly for Matt Capps. I think the Twins are skeptical of the bat as well.
You also have to remember...
…that catchers typically develop on offense later than other position players, probably due to the beating they take on the defensive side of the ball. As such, he may have more offensive upside than his raw numbers would suggest (if applied to a different type of hitter).
Maybe ...
I’m not so sure that hitters develop their skills at 26, 27, 28.
In fact, I think the beating you talk about hastens their decline.
I think it DOES hasten their decline.
You hardly ever see a productive starting catcher who stays productive much past the age of 30.
But the thing about catchers’ bats developing late is a scouting truism anyway, and there sure seem like a bunch of anecdotal examples. I mean, we’ve got one on our team right now – look at Kratz.
Here's my Twinkietown post. I want to shoot myself.
This is an atrocity of a trade. A war crime. I DEMAND BILL SMITH’S HEAD AT THE UPCOMING HAGUE TRIBUNAL!
I posted something th’other day about being a Bucco fan too and having seen all I ever needed to see of Matt Capps in 2009, but also how looking at his peripherals this year I had to concede he wouldn’t be a terrible bullpen pickup, so long as the price was reasonable.
Washington, remember, has their closer of the future in Drew Storen, and they’re chock full o’ 6 years of control of him. They’re out of contention. They ought not have been able to convince anyone with electrical activity in their brain that they actually need Capps. In any case, Capps’ strikeout rate is merely average for a reliever, to say nothing of ace-closer stuff (18% range). So they ought not have been able to convince anyone with electrical activity in their brain that Capps is actually a top-tier relief pitcher. I think I typed something about knowing the Twins organization and its beknighted traditional mindset overvalues closers, but hoping that wouldn’t result in anything ridiculous.
NEVER in my wildest fucking dreams did I imagine the Twins might even CONSIDER flushing Ramos down the toilet for a year and a half of a merely half-decent relief pitcher. I mean JESUS CHRIST wait until the off-season and get something truly tasty. This is just insane. All Ramos has to do is be a marginally decent MLB catcher for the years of team control for Washington and this is so wildly unbalanced it’s just sad.
I cannot express the level of my disbelief. I CAN express that I absolutely HATE the Twins F.O right now. I’ll do it like this: I absolutely HATE the Twins F.O. Also: Puke. Puke. Puke.
I am just not able to wrap my head around the fact that I’m gonna have to watch Matt Capps pitch again. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH.
Agreed - You should be pissed.....
The Twins got taken…..
I hardly believe that Matt Capps is the best they could get back in return for Ramos.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 30, 2010 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions
The Capps trade...
is a vote of not much confidence in their current closer, Jon Rauch. He hasn’t had a clean appearance (no hits, no walks) in over a month. With a bunch of 20+ pitch appearances. They may regret the move…but I’m guessing that the Nats end up with more of a return for Capps than we get for Dotel.
I tend to suspect that they will as well.
And they probably should, based on how the two have pitched this year. But the extent of the disparity in trade return is still something of an open question.
Remember....
Twins will have Nathan back next year so they really just need someone to plug a hole for this year. Although that make you wonder why the would give up Ramos for a half season of Matt Capps as a closer
I don't know that you can assume...
…that Nathan will come back in closer-worthy shape. He’s going to be 36 next year, and pitchers often don’t fully recover their command after TJ until eighteen months after the surgery.
Again maybe ...
But I’m pretty sure the Twins are not paying Capps $6 million as an insurance policy.
I don't think Capps is an insurance policy.
I think they’re not counting on getting anything out of Nathan, and if they do, then having Capps on hand is a bonus.
VLAD I am hoping....
you are wrong about Nathan as I have him as $5 keeper in my AL only roto league…
I could be.
But if I am, at least I put my money where my mouth was: I had him in a 5×5 roto keeper league this spring, and left him off my keeper list (in favor of Asdrubal Cabrera, who hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory this year).
Charlie - A few questions....
Either you believe in advanced stats, or you don’t. Either you believe that NH would have taken a decent return for Matt Capps (ie: Ramos) or he wouldn’t have. There really isn’t an in-between….
Matt Capps has a BAA of .287, LOB % of 75%, 7.4 K/9, 1.8BB /9, and an FIP of .358.
Octavio Dotel (who would not have had to be gone to arbitration with, a key sticking point of the Capps/Bucs negotiations) has a BAA of .237, LOB% of 70%, 10.8K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and an FIP of .384.
Capps has been a .6 WAR guy this year, Dotel a .3 WAR guy this year.
So, with all that being said, who would you rather have……based on knowing that you have a guy (Dotel) with a known salary for 2011 (if you even pick it up), or a guy that will be heading to Arbitration and will most definitely get a substantial raise (even if he doesn’t have a great year, which he isn’t having? I would take Dotel…..easily.
So, that begs the question of the return for Capps? Are you really going to get on NH’s case for the Capps non-tender being a ‘stupid move’, because the Twins management overvalues the closer role and doubled their mistake by not looking at how Capps is ACTUALLY pitching? And, knowing that to be true (which it obviously is), don’t you think that if Capps would have brought back that return in the off-season prior to 2010…..Hungtington would have done it? Do you not think he looked at all possible trades before non-tendering a guy who was in line for a raise that unquestionably would have been a bad deal for the team having to pay him?
This whole argument also leaves out the return that we are bound to get for Dotel, which, if precedence is any indication, we should be getting overpaid for Dotel as well, considering that you could make a pretty good argument that he has pitched as well or better than Capps this year.
Let’s hold off on calling a move stupid without looking at the facts, looking at the contract/arbitration situation, and without looking at the possible return that we are going to get for Dotel. I think that is a fair request…..
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 30, 2010 3:33 AM EDT reply actions
It does matter
It does matter that the Twins (and other teams) overvalue closers. The fact that teams overvalue closers means that Capps would have had value as a trade chip had the Bucs held on to him. Although, as I commented before, without getting the wake up call from his release, Capps may not have turned it around and may not have been worth anything to anyone.
by uneasy rider on Jul 30, 2010 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions
And the argument was made at the time
This isn’t Charlie (or anyone else) seeing this trade and changing his tune, or adding an argument. Phrases like “trading deadline” and “teams overvalue closers” were used in the discussions around Capps’ release. This was precisely why the non-tender was a bad move.
This sort of Capps performance/trade return was the upside, and the downside was a few million lost – hardly the end of the world for this club (as Aki, et al will attest).
One more thing.....
How is Capps being “younger” considered a positive in this situation? Rather, the biggest factor AGAINST having Capps is his ability to head to arbitration where he will cost the team (now the Twins) much, much more than he is worth, as opposed to Dotel who can either be dropped or signed for a very affordable amount?
In this instance, age is irrelevant – or a negative coupled with arbitration – unless you are advocating the Twins, or any other team should want to sign Capps for the long-term? And, if that is your argument, in my opinion, you are clearly mistaken and are overvaluing a slightly-above average reliever even moreso than the Twins did.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 30, 2010 3:56 AM EDT reply actions
If you're comparing the two...
…then Capps’s age arguably makes him less likely to experience an age-related decline than Dotel. Though a decline could happen to either one at any time, of course. Particularly given Capps’s issues with conditioning.
The funniest thing about all this is
that NH actually likes to trade for guys who are around age 24-25 and currently strugging after having some promising years at young ages.
I guess the only difference is that the guys he trades for, hoping they regain their form (like LaRoche, Clement, Alderson, etc.), had their good years in their early 20s in the minor leagues, rather than the bigs, and were struggling with some other team.
Capps had his good years in the majors in his early 20s — which counts against him, in NH’s worldview, I think because he, like some posters, is obsessed with the definition of “prospect” — and was struggling with the Bucs, not someone else, so he, like Gorzelanny, was destined to suck in NH’s worldview.
I think this is somewhat misguided.
In that it doesn’t consider Capps’s likely price tag in arbitration. If Milledge had been going to put us on the hook for $5M+ this season, NH probably wouldn’t have traded for him last year, either, because he would’ve had to have a killer season to justify that kind of financial outlay.
Okay
I accept that. The reason that the Pirates will trade their best assets (like Bay and Sanchez) for guys who performed well in the minors before struggling but not invest money in players who performed well (for them) in the majors before struggling is because the guys with the service time are in line for more dough.
In other words, according to you, the explanation for the strange thing I’m observing (valuing good minor league performance ahead of good major league performances in evaluating struggling players) is not NH’s stupidity and incompetence, but Nutting’s cheapness. It’s a bit more depressing since it can’t be remedied as easily, but it’s just as likely.
by RafaelBelliup on Jul 30, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe the true outcry will come
If we deal Hanrahan or Meek and don’t get a prospect the quality of Ramos in return.
Exactly
what’s not being looked at is the following:
Why didn’t we move Meek or Hanrahan (or Dotel for that matter) for Ramos and potentially more. Tony Sanchez be damned, Ramos is in AAA and is as good or a better prospect and plus, you can never have enough talent.
The “we should have kept Capps cause look” argument holds little to no water. Could the situation have been handled better? Sure, but I think this is the case of Twins overpaying. Even if we thought Capps would get this “good” again there’s no reason to think he could have landed a prospect of Ramos’s quality. Instead, I’m mildly upset we didn’t jump all over such an opportunity.
That being said, as someone mentioned above about “Alderson for Sanchez” I do think it’s interesting Ramos + Hicks + more couldn’t land Cliff Lee. There may be underlying issues with Ramos here that aren’t obvious to the public as in Alderson’s case. If that’s true, it turns into a “meh” for me.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
If they deal Hanrahan or Meek...
…they’ll get back something better than Ramos. Both are more valuable commodities, and the downside in keeping them is limited if there isn’t a good offer out there.
Hmm
If you’re correct* that Hanrahan or Meek is worth a top 50 prospect (granted, one having a down, but not disastrous, year, not a breakout), then I think we have to move one. I wonder if that’s really the case, though, or whether the Nats got lucky/found a love connection.
- and logically, you’re absolutely correct, but GMs aren’t always logical.
I don't know that he's "worth" one...
…but I suspect that we’d get one anyway if we moved either guy.
Look at what the Jays are demanding in return for Downs. And Downs isn’t as good as either of our guys.
Well
I’d like to think Hanrahan and Meek would get Ramos + more for Ramos and potentially more It was more of a valuation thing. If Capps = Ramos then logically (as JRoth said, which doesn’t mean “in reality” necessarily) Hanrahan or Meek = Ramos + something in value.
I agree with JRoth. If that’s their worth, we should definitely be moving one or both. UNLESS, people in the Twins org. (and maybe Nats) know/knew something about Ramos that devalued him, maybe even significantly, similar to Alderson. The Giants didn’t give up Alderson for Sanchez because they thought it was a fair value trade using the pre-season 2009 value for Alderson. Maybe the Ramos of now isn’t = to the Ramos of pre-2010 (aka the top 100 prospect)
Again though, if a top 100 prospect is the true market value for Capps (which makes no sense considering the Haren deal) then Meek and Hanrahan need to go.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
And now considering what the
Diamondbacks reportedly got for Edwin Jackson (Dan Hudson from the ChiSox). NH has to jump on something. Try and get Dee Gordon (despite the Dodgers saying he’s untouchable) or go after Matt Dominguez for Dotel, or somehow get Martin Perez from the Rangers. It’s getting crazy.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
It comes down to this
Going forward, would you rather have Dotel or Ramos?
Assuming Dotel has the same value or more of Capps
Ramos (despite Tony Sanchez), but Capps may have had more value (younger, better history, similar numbers) than Dotel.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Charlie.....I disagree.
(I posted this yesterday before the trade in another thread)
I’m getting a bit tired of DK others saying how bad it was to let the Capps "asset" walk. They wouldn’t have both Capps and Dotel on the roster this year. They control Dotel for $4.5 million next year. Capps will most certainly be awarded more than that if he goes to arbitration in the off-season. This is a vitally important point that seems to be overlooked in most of this discussion.
That is one of the reasons the Nats are looking to possibly move him and I’m comfortable arguing that today Dotel is more valuable than Capps on the trade market.
DK’s argument that they should have kept Capps and let him increase his value and then traded him is a strawman. You have to make decisions on people and evaluate talent all the time. You only have so many roster positions, so many innings that can be pitched. That Capps has pitched better than last year is nice. But in terms of evaluating the decision based on results, NH has a winner in the contract signed by Dotel and his performance vs. going to arb with Capps.
-———————
Added today:
It’s nice that the Capps got a return for Capps, but it was NOT a dumb idea. The performance has been relatively even and Dotel has cost certainty. Capps is guaranteed to make more than $4.5 in arbitration this off-season. I still don’t see the argument.
They swapped out Capps for Dotel. There is nothing dumb in this. Certainly if might not have worked out, just as it could have worked out even better. Now we have the results and I would say it is even performance-wise and better contract-wise so I think in hindsight it was a good decision.
Now we can also see what we get back in return vs. Ramos and close the book on the entire debate and see if it was better or not.
And
Certainly if might not have worked out,
Should read “Certainly IT might not have worked out…”
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 30, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Next season
The Pirates wouldn’t be committed to either Dotel or Capps for ‘11 if they didn’t want them. If they keep Capps, they’re making a one-time bet that he can be worth $3.5M and/or return something worthwhile in a trade. Given that they couldn’t win this year and given that they had Hanrahan and Meek, they weren’t going to be hurt too badly if Capps never recovered form (if he’s a complete bust, then you’ve lost a noticeable, but not painful, sum; if he’s merely mediocre, then you’ve overpaid but not egregiously).
One Important Point No One Is Making - Accountability!
NH has a system whereby if you perform you are rewarded, and if you suck you are not. This is the basis of what makes an organization work. The guys coming up have to know they’ll get a shot if they do well, while guys on the team have to know they must perform to keep their spot.
If NH resigned the miserably sucking Matt Capps to a $ 3.5 million deal, it would have disrupted the entire organization’s way of doing business, and disillusioned everyone. Imagine if they just kept Aki and made Neil Walker stew at AAA?
Steal
I think the Nats got a steal from the Twins, Ramo’s has a future, I have seen him play and I like him. Capps flat fastball in the AL should get hit pretty regularly. The Twins will be in a lot more games that are pressure packed than the Nats, I predict he will return to form in the AL and that form ain’t good.
I think we can all agree that this return for Capps is the ultimate ceiling of what could be had.
The question then becomes, during last off-season, what would you have calculated the chance that Capps would have an ERA of under 3.00 in 2010, and then what was the chance that you’d find a team that would give up a prospect like Ramos for it?
I’m thinking you’d calculate the odds as not very good. And any other outcome would be either neutral or a plus for swapping out Capps for Dotel. Therefore, Huntington played the percentages, because he didn’t want to have a disaster of a bullpen in 2010.
He accomplished his goal of building a good bullpen for 2010, and that is the important thing.
This
He accomplished his goal of building a good bullpen for 2010, and that is the important thing.
strikes me as a strange comment. I’m not disagreeing with you, but (and yes I know NH talked about having a good bullpen and how it was feasible on the cheap, which he accomplished) surely and hopefully that wasn’t the only goal or the end of that specific goal. Surely he didn’t think the bullpen was the only thing holding us back from contending in 2010.
From there, having a good bullpen in 2010 needed to be a building block in two directions.
1) Instead of a “good bullpen” NH really meant tradeable relievers, which I think has been accomplished and there’s still 24 hours to see if NH goes this route, building for success circa 2013
2) NH thinks we are closer than that and 2011 is the year to start (which oddly does not fall into the “five year plan” and since I think we’ve had modest trade success (faster ML results) compared to great draft success (slower ML results) I think we need to be aiming for the end of that 5 years rather than the middle-end) and so the bullpen will be intact for the next few years with plenty of options to weather any storms of injuries or year to year attrition (common in relievers). If that’s the plan, why the hell aren’t we buying? Maybe we can buy during the offseason, but I think now’s a good time if you look in the right places.
Either way, I think a quiet trade deadline on our front is more than just dull, its damaging but not being proactive. At least that’s my opinion.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 30, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with most of this
there isn’t much reason for a team in our position to hold on to Dotel, and both of Meek/Hanrahan- I’d add Carrasco and Lopez in there too, but I dont know if there’s any market for those guys… if there is, they should be traded.
by BurgherKing on Jul 30, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of teams have been asking about Carrasco.
And at least a few have checked in on Lopez. So there’s at least some kind of market. Enough of one for it to be worth our while to move them? Hard to say.
PAGING VLAD: IS CARRASCO
AT LEAST WORTH TAKING A LOOK SEE IN THE STARTING ROTATION? HE CAN’T BE ANY WORSE THAN THE STIFFS WE’VE RUN OUT THERE THIS SEASON.
Personally, I wouldn't.
I’d rather take a few more looks at the stiffs we have on hand, to know how many of them to bump off the roster over the offseason.
But Carrasco-as-SP is a reasonable position to take (provided he doesn’t get traded in the next two days, of course).
As I've stated....
I think they absolutely should do this in September (2-3 starts) and then let him compete in spring training. If it doesn’t work out he goes back to the pen.
At $1.5 million (about what he’ll make next year, this is a no brainer.)
there was a tweet by Biertempfel
Nothing since… I did wonder if someone may have fed him misinformation to up DJs trade value :-)
But maybe the FO is just keeping the cards close… we’ll see
That's if ...
you believe some of these reports on MLBtraderumors and similar websites. (And I’m skeptical of 80 percent of them.)
Last year, for example, Matt Capps was the hottest commodity in baseball.
Far too many of these rumors are based on agents popping off or GMs trying to create a market for a bad player.
why
was building a good bullpen an important goal for a 90 – 100 loss team? That’s like building a deck on house with a failing foundation and a leaking roof.
Because...
You have to get a good place to put your grill. I’d love to have an awesome deck on my house. I’d have a grill and a picnic table and holy crap it’d be awesome. How what’s this about the foundation and roof?
by IAPiratesFan on Jul 30, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Like a tarpaper shack
On 15 acres of God’s own country.
Actually, a great BP on a 90 loss team is like a freaking mansion on a Superfund site.
It's not like a lot is invested in this bullpen
I think it’s only an issue if NH had dropped a huge chunk of change on a FA closer, while ignoring other facets of the team. Instead he signed some nice market-rate arms that have performed well (with the exception of Donnelly).
If only the market-rate position players he signed had performed as well…..(yes, i’m talking to you Ryan Church.)
Don't know that it was necessarily a particularly important goal.
But it was an area where we had some holes on the ML roster and few quality internal options. So at least a little investment was warranted.
At least as important
He proved that he could build a decent bullpen. He inherited a weak ‘pen, but he basically only made it worse his first 2 seasons in charge. With the ’10 example, either he’s learned something or he knows that he has a 1/3 chance of cobbling together some OK relievers.
I agree....
and the philosophy he has is pretty simple. Build around power arms and add pieces. Hansen and Yates were the first attempts and didn’t pan out. Meek and Hanrahan have.
Ascanio fits in there nicely as well in the brief time he pitched before being hurt.
Let's see what we get for Dotel in a trade, compare to Ramos, and then we can judge
probably will be one big wash all around.
+1
Yep. Also will be interesting to see if the Twins non-tender him this off-season or if they want to stomach $5.5-$7 million he will get in arb. I would bet non-tender.
Consider the Ramirez influence:
when you want to leave a team, stop being an effective player.
Tom Specht
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