Pirates Top 30 Prospects: July 2010 Edition
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 3, 2010 9:48 PM EDT
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Bryan Morris (Photo: WTM)
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Pirates prospects are having a pretty bad season. When they've actually been on the field, many of them have played quite well. The problem is that they're never on the field. In fact, among the players on my last prospect list, eight (Tony Sanchez, Starling Marte, Quinton Miller, Brock Holt, Colton Cain, Victor Black, Brett Lorin and Jeffrey Inman) have already missed or will miss very significant development time this season with injuries. That's bad, and while I doubt all this amounts to much more than nasty luck, it's very difficult for a team to deal with a serious rash of injuries in addition to the usual rate of attrition that comes with the territory for prospects.
Whether one is pro- or anti-Neal Huntington, it's clear that the Pirates absolutely must produce great talent from their minor league system. Poor play at the major league level in 2010 is one thing; a poor year in the minors is another. Fortunately, the Bucs again accumulated a ton of talent in the draft this year, and they could end up spending a bunch of money in Latin America as well. They'd better, and they'd better get Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and some of their other higher-upside draft picks under contract. Between all the problems the Bucs' prospects have had this year and the graduations of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln and Neil Walker (and these graduations are good things, of course), this list is going to be really tough to write.
Again, some attrition among prospects is normal, so any team's prospect list is going to look a little weird in early July, before draft picks start signing. And again, the Bucs just graduated three of their top six guys. It's perfectly natural that their list would look a little thin right now, and so it would be easy to draw overly pessimistic conclusions from what follows. Still, though, all these injuries are very bad news.
So here's the list. I'm not including anyone currently on the big league team or who has exceeded Major League Baseball's requirements to be considered a rookie. I'm also not including any unsigned draft picks (and pretty much all the important ones are unsigned). The list I wrote in April and linked above, contains embedded video of a number of these players.
1. Tony Sanchez, C, Bradenton. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Sanchez moves to this spot mostly because Alvarez got promoted, but he'll be out for a while. Fortunately, what he broke was his jaw and not anything he actually needs to play baseball. He was off to a terrific start at Bradenton, and I look forward to seeing what he can do at Altoona next year.
2. Bryan Morris, SP, Altoona. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 10. Morris keeps making his way up the list with the best season of any Bucs prospect - he's already breezed through the Florida State League and is having only a little more trouble at Class AA. I considered putting him in the top spot.
3. Starling Marte, OF, Bradenton. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 3. Marte has already missed a big chunk of time after having surgery on the hamate bone in his left hand. There's no reason he can't fully recover, but he's already missed a bunch of time. This would concern me less if he were a more polished prospect like Sanchez, but he's not - he's all tools and raw talent, and he has a lot to learn, particularly about strike zone judgment, before he makes it in the bigs. His return this weekend came a bit earlier than expected. Sending him to the Arizona Fall League should be an easy choice.
4. Rudy Owens, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 5. Essentially, Owens is Zach Duke, and that's not a bad thing. Owens isn't a flamethrower or anything close to it, but he's not really a soft-tosser either, and his breaking ball and command are good enough for him to make it in the majors. Like Duke, his strikeout rate may decline somewhat as he inches closer to the big leagues. Also like Duke, he can be a perfectly good starter if he has a good defense behind him.
5. Justin Wilson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 22. Wilson's getting a bigger bump than he deserves here thanks to injuries to other players, but actually, there's very little to not like about the guy at this point. He does walk a few too many batters, but he racks up strikeouts and keeps home runs off the board. In addition, he's pitched brilliantly since posting a 6.57 ERA in April. Wilson is worthy of more attention.
6. Zack Von Rosenberg, SP, State College. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 8. Again, Von Rosenberg shouldn't be ranked this high. He's mostly here due to his reputation, and he has struggled so far for the Spikes. Of course, at the lower levels of the minors the Pirates worry mostly about fastball command and mechanics, and Von Rosenberg is 19, so as long as he stays healthy, I'm not sure his performance record this year should change our opinions about him very much. He got a huge bonus and he's healthy. Right now, that's probably about 90% of what you need to know.
7. Nathan Adcock, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 15. We know that Adcock can beat Class A+ hitting; he pitched there all of last year, too, and has had a relatively easy time this season. We'll see if he can sustain his success in Class AA, whenever the Pirates decide to move him there. In any case, he's an underrated prospect, perhaps because he had to pitch part of last season in the hitter's haven at High Desert.
8. Colton Cain, SP, Gulf Coast League. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 17. Cain missed a couple months of development earlier this year with injury, but he probably wouldn't have appeared in games until the short-season leagues opened anyway. For whatever Gulf Coast League stats are worth, he hasn't missed a beat so far, striking out five batters and walking none in his first 6 2/3 innings.
9. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Altoona. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 9. D'Arnaud got off to a very slow start, but since he'd shown a broad base of skills in the past, that concerned me less than it might for some prospects. He's bounced back in a big way, hitting .306/.383/.500 in June. When all is said and done, I think he'll be fine, and he'll probably be in line for at bats in Pittsburgh near the end of 2011.
10. Jeff Locke, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. Like Adcock, I'd love to see Locke be moved up. The poor guy has a 6:1 K:BB ratio at Bradenton, and he also spent all of last season pitching at the Class A+ level. He can get Class A batters out! We get it!
11. Jarek Cunningham, 2B, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 11. Cunningham has pretty pedestrian numbers overall, but most of that is due to a very rough month of May. He has mashed since the beginning of June. Given that he's fairly young and missed all of last season, I don't think it's ridiculous to hope that he's made adjustments and can continue to hit as the year goes on. He isn't a big guy, but he has unexpected power for a middle infielder and could add more as he fills out a bit.
12. Trent Stevenson, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 21. Stevenson doesn't have much of a track record yet, and ideally he'd be further down the list, but when he was drafted last year, he was supposed to be the prototypical "projectable" pitcher – about 19 feet tall, skinny, and very raw. To judge from the very limited experience he's had so far, he seems to be a very fast learner, as he really hasn't walked much of anyone in his few pro starts so far. Tall, projectable, and he can throw strikes? The Pirates can work with that.
13. Robbie Grossman, OF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 7. Grossman got off to a fast start in April and then fell off the face of the earth, and we know why: he strikes out way too much. To his credit, he also walks a lot, and he's young for his level, but that's really all he's had going for him this season. He's hit .342 in his last ten games, so hopefully that's the start of something.
14. Diego Moreno, RP, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. I'm not a big fan of relief prospects in general, and don't put them on the list that often, because success as a reliever in Class A, for example, often doesn't translate to success as a reliever in the majors. But after receiving glowing writeups and posting PlayStation numbers at Bradenton, Moreno deserves to be the exception here. Don't worry too much about his disaster outing a few days ago at Altoona - apparently it was raining hard and it was difficult to grip the ball.
15. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 12. I don't want to overreact to a couple of months missed due to injury - Miller throws hard, got a huge bonus coming out of high school, and pitched pretty well in 2009. But he missed a ton of time with shoulder tendinitis this year, and is only now making his way back - he pitched two innings for the Gulf Coast League team on Friday.
16. Brooks Pounders, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 23. It's pretty bad when a prospect like Pounders gets a pretty sizable bump merely for staying healthy, but that's where we are right now. Pounders has pitched well so far in three outings at State College. He has an advanced feel for pitching for someone his age, so he probably won't be tested - or at least I hope he won't - until Class A+ or so.
17. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 14. Alderson continues to stick on this list because he's very young and isn't completely overmatched at Class AA, but those are pretty much the only reasons. He showed some signs of progress in May, when he struck out 29 batters in 32 innings, but struggled in June. I've heard some rumblings in the past few days that his velocity has recently improved; if I could confirm them, I'd probably move him up a bit, because velocity will be the key for him. At the beginning of this year, he was supposed to have been throwing his fastball in the mid-80s, which just won't cut it. If he can get it back into the low-90s on a regular basis, he'll be a decent prospect.
18. Alex Presley, OF, Indianapolis. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. I'm not a huge believer in Presley, who's small and who has never looked like a prospect before this year. But not only did he destroy the ball at Altoona, he has continued to hit in a very small sample at Indianapolis. A guy who can hit .344/.391/.552 at Class AA and Class AAA at age 24 deserves to be on prospect lists, even if I suspect he'll cool off later.
19. Victor Black, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Black has barely pitched this year. His big fastball and draft pedigree keep him here, but that's about it.
20. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, Gulf Coast League. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 30. I put this guy at No. 30 on the previous list despite his not having a track record, and with a .364/.417/.477 start in the GCL since then, I see no reason to temper my excitement now. At 18, he's the youngest player on this list.
21. Brett Lorin, SP, Bradenton? Grade: C. Previous ranking: 24. Lorin has missed most of the year with hip surgery and has been passed by Nathan Adcock as the most promising pitcher acquired in the Jack Wilson deal, but he's recently had three good rehab outings in the Gulf Coast League. The Pirates will probably send him to one of the full season teams soon, and hopefully he'll get a spot in a winter league somewhere.
22. Danny Moskos, RP, Indianapolis. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. The much-maligned 2007 first-rounder has earned a place on the list with a good season out of the Altoona bullpen. He was recently promoted to Indianapolis and has pitched well in his first four outings there. He was a horrible waste of the fourth overall pick, yes, but that doesn't mean he can't be useful.
23. Evan Chambers, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. Chambers is undeniably talented, but you're likely to have seen his type before only if you play baseball video games in the franchise mode and the game runs several years into the future and creates fake players with bizarre combinations of skills – 300-pound shortstops who can run like the wind but can't hit or throw, for example. Chambers is very short, considerably shorter than his listed height of 5-foot-11, and strikes out like it's his job, but he's also powerfully built, draws a ton of walks, and has the speed to wreak havoc on the bases. Whether that particular package of strengths and weaknesses will make it to the majors is unclear, but it's way too early to stamp him undeliverable.
24. Brock Holt, SS, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 16. Holt is out for the rest of the year with a torn meniscus, which is a real shame, because he had a very good first half with Bradenton, batting .351. He'll be almost 23 at the start of next season, so he'll need to move quickly.
25. Nate Baker, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. Baker's season has been fine but, for a fifth-round pick out of college, a little underwhelming - he only has 51 strikeouts in 73 innings, which is fewer than you'd hope to see from a guy who should be moving through the minors quickly.
26. Josh Harrison, IF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. Harrison doesn't do much to wow you, but he's batting .315 in Class AA at age 22, which is worth something. If he were a shortstop, he'd almost certainly make a good utility infielder.
27. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 28. A good June keeps Gorkys on the list. He's been enormously disappointing since coming over in the Nate McLouth trade, but he's only 22, so there's time for him to pull it together. It's easy to forget that he had a couple of very nice seasons in Class A, and at his age, he might just need a bit of time.
28. Phillip Irwin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. As a 21st-round draft pick, Irwin hasn't gotten much attention, and he'll probably have to prove himself at every stop, since his stuff isn't supposed to be dominating. But as WTM points out, Baseball America ranked him the eighth-best prospect in Mississippi, a few spots behind Baker, when both were drafted last year, and Irwin's performance so far has been excellent, with a strikeout an inning and five strikeouts per walk so far at West Virginia. It theoretically shouldn't take much for a college pitcher from a big school to do well in the South Atlantic League, so we'll figure out if there's anything here when Irwin moves up.
29. Eric Avila, IF, Gulf Coast League. Grade: C. Previous ranking: Not ranked. This spot could have gone to any number of speculative international prospects, so if you'd rather I picked Jhonathan Barrios or Willy Garcia or Jorge Bishop or Fraylin Campos or Gift Ngeope or whomever, then hey, that's fine. It's nice to be able to argue about these things. Another guy who potentially could fit into this category is the absurdly young Dovydas Neverauskas, a 17-year-old Lithuanian pitcher who's already in the Gulf Coast League. Anyway, Avila gets the call here because he's really whacking the ball in the GCL after performing well in the Dominican last year. He appears to possess a good mix of offensive skills, with average, power, some plate discipline, and even some stolen bases. Keep an eye on him.
30. Quincy Latimore, OF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 18. Latimore got off to a huge start at Bradenton but hasn't done much since. He has excellent power, but his problems controlling the strike zone are likely to consume him before he displays it in the majors.
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If Owens' ceiling is Zach Duke...
Then he belongs nowhere near the top 10, even of this list. Duke is just barely a major league pitcher.
I knew someone would say that.
Btw I never said his ceiling was Duke.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 3, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Duke is Owens’ ceiling. I’d peg him a little bit higher even as far as likely outcome. Owens has somewhat better stuff, and statistically he has the advantage in strikeouts at Double-A (7.1 K/9 for Owens vs. 6.3 for Duke at AA and 5.5 for Duke at AAA).
But Owens isn’t an upper-tier talent, and him being at 4 (or arguably higher) spotlights how weak the farm system is right now.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 3, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not sure he has better stuff than Duke did when he came up. Duke then touched 94 pretty routinely, and with really good breaking stuff. I do think Owens probably does have better stuff than Duke right now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 3, 2010 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Duke averaged 89 in the first year when he came up, and has been 87-88 since. Owens won’t be better than first-year Duke, but I’d put him above 2006-10 Duke if he makes the majors. Not a huge talent, but one of the best we have.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 4, 2010 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh. I remember him hitting 94 many times in his first several starts, but maybe the FSN gun was a little hot. In any case he definitely had some zip on his pitches that he doesn’t have now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 4, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
When Duke was in Altoona he was usually in the high 80s, would touch 91-92 occasionally, which was about where Owens was early in the year. Owens has gained some velo as the year’s gone on, actually.
The Owens-Duke comparison is fairly apt, really. It’s tough to explain why, but I saw Duke when he was in Altoona, too, and I like Owens’ prospects better now than I liked Duke’s then. But I’m not a scout and am probably wrong.
well
Owens touches 94, and stays in the low 90s. Duke now only touches the low 90s. id say owens looks like a better prospect
agreed...Duke can hit 92 MPH tops thats it he never through harder than that..
Owens velocity is up this year
The Altoona gun is 2mph slow
It’s been well-documented. They probably should fix it, but I guess they don’t care.
If Duke was touching 92 in Altoona, then 94 would be reasonable.
Actually...
the Altoona gun (assuming you mean the board in center field there) is random, sometimes off by as much as 5 or 7 MPH, and kind of a running joke among the pitchers and staff. When I quote speeds it’s what the scouts’ guns are reading.
Saying that he is Duke is different somehow?
I’m in agreement with the rest of the list for the most part, except that I’d have Locke a slot or two higher and Moskos a few slots higher; I think Moskos has good setup guy potential and a strong chance to get there. We’re in the minority ranking Owens ahead of Wilson, though.
Oh, and I wouldn’t have Sanchez in the top 5, between his injury problems and the unlikeliness he’s going to hit above A ball.
There are too many very good questions about Sanchez at this point. He’d drop to about four or five and a plain B grade to me (and wouldn’t be surprising for ZVR to pass him up, or even Cain).
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 4, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Specifically with Sanchez, there’s the arm strength issue that appeared this year, as well as whether he can hit at the upper levels. That’s some uncertainty for a college draftee in the low minors.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 4, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I still think that the arm strength is a non-issue due to lingering shoulder trouble…whether the bat plays as well is another question altogether but you can’t argue that he’s hit well so far.
Nothing in his performance record says to drop him below Owens, Marte or Wilson by any means.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jul 5, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes,
throwing arm is something that doesn’t change from college to pros, so if it wasn’t a scouting concern at GT I don’t know why it would be all of a sudden now. I’ve never seen the kid play but I’ve also never heard anyone doubt his defensive skills so I’m betting the injury affected him more than we think.
The bat might be a question but luckily he’s a catcher so .280/.330 with some pop is fine.
GT??
You mean BC, right?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 5, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, saying that Duke is his likely upside and that Duke is his most likely outcome are two very different things. And Duke has a 97 career ERA+, which is completely fine for a starter, despite having horrible defenses behind him most of his career. He doesn’t get enough credit.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 3, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It's quite obvious
Once Taillon and Allie get signed they will be 1-2 in the Pirate prospect rankings.
I’m holdin out hope that the Pirates will acquired some decent B prospects at the trade deadline to replenish what was graduated.
by BadAndy on Jul 3, 2010 11:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
There is a bunch of unpredictablity here
There is some youth here so they could go even higher and plus we got to sign Taillon and others so I’m not worried unless they don’t get signed, Taillon and Allie. Plus, with the injured guys right now they’d probably be bumped up a level next year anyway, like we did with Cunningham. There is depth here, as there are more than 30 prospects in this organization that can reach the major league and could make an impact whether its on the bench or starting. Like Hague and Bishop who weren’t ranked. There is some potential even below the top 30 here. They have some flaws to correct, but there is potential based on the youth at the bottom leagues.
ZVR pitched 4 innings gave 2 runs both earned, 4 hits, 4 Ks, and one walk. I suppose they didnt want him to pitch in the 5th due to him possibly blowing it up. But his other starts have been limited to 4 innings due to him imploding on the mound. But he’s only 19 so I’m not worried about him. I wonder what his velocity has been so far in State College.
Moskos
Over Moreno for me. Guy is back to throwing 96 from the left side and is wiping everybody out this year as a closer. There’s significant value there.
Glad to see Cayonez and Avila make the list
I was very excited by those two last year, and am glad to see them continue their success.
Avila
What is his story? Is he our most promising LA talent in the US now (aside from guys at higher levels like Marte)?
I think at this point based on performance it’s between him and Cayonez. Cayonez is a year younger and putting up solid numbers so far as well. Jorge Bishop’s age is right in between the two of them. He hasn’t done a ton this year, but it’s early enough that you can’t really draw any conclusions at this point. Any one of those guys has a chance. They were probably the 3 best hitters on the VSL team last year.
Moskos deserves better than #22
That’s just hate right there. Yea, he was the 4th round draft pick and the Pirates passed over .620 OPS in 600 MLB PAs Matt Wieters. Get over it. I understand that he was repeating AA, but he was doing so as a reliever – finally, his true role – and he’s been stellar. People need to grow up and learn to see him for what he is.
Umm, thats fourth overall pick not fourth round but yea...
Apparently you need to see him for what he is. He has done a good job so far this year but he is just a reliever. He will be quite useful if he keeps up his current pace but a set up man still isn’t an extremely great prospect. Where would you rank him? I could see flipping Moskos and Victor Black maybe but thats as high as I’d go with him for now.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 4, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
You could put him above Moreno for starters
he’s ahead of him in terms of readiness and is right there in production, plus he’s a lefty to boot.
That could just mean Moreno is ranked too high is all. But just because Moskos is a level higher doesn’t mean he is better. Moreno: k/9 14.3, bb/9 1.6, k:bb 9.20. Moskos: k/9 9.5, bb/9 2.9, k:bb 3.27. These are stats for this season and Moskos has his mostly at a level higher than Moreno but to me it looks like the only advantage Moskos has in this argument is he is left-handed.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 4, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
What he truly is is a left handed reliever. Probably not a closer. When you’re a likely non-closing reliever what’s the real upside there? If things don’t work out where do you end up? For the same reason I think I’d argue Diego Moreno is too high.
Just because he is a lefty doesn't limit him to LOOGY
Damaso Marte was very good while here, and he closed a few games while Capps was down. Mike Gonzalez was a good closer for us. Billy Wagner had a great career. Brian Fuentes has also been a reliable closer.
If Meek wasn’t there, I’d pencil in Moskos to be our future closer. He was very good in Clemson, he has been good this season, and I don’t think you can write him off just because he wasn’t a good starter.
Anytime anyone argues with me by imagining they know what my motivations are, I will treat that as a license to not take that person seriously.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 4, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
We see him for what he is:
Potentially a decent lefty reliever. Which is something that you can get for about $2-3M per in FA.
Not a particularly valuable commodity, is the point that I’m making here.
How dare you sir...
How dare you, sir… Do you know who I am? You mustn’t, or you wouldn’t use vulgarities with me.
Evan Chambers
Very nice to see him climb this list. Once he cuts down the strikeouts he will fly up the prospect food chain.
My favorite non Pirate player growing up was Kirby Pucket… the mere thought that we may have a version of him in the minors is friggen awesome. So I am a bit biased.
We Pirate fans have a saying: "God created the Bucs to train the faithful." One cannot go against the word of God.
My favorite description on the list by far…and terribly accurate besides. I hope that he makes the majors just to see his comparable players list.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jul 5, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Moskos
Is gonna be a Bucco (along with Morris) next June. He’ll probably start out in long relief (to get him accomated to the big show) then if he keeps up throwin in the low to mid 90s with that wipeout slider be in the back of the bullpen by the end of 2011.
by BadAndy on Jul 4, 2010 10:01 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
One of our scrub starters will be LR,
Moskos will be the no.2 lefty. It’s been clearly established that he only works for 1 or 2 innings max and we will have plenty of washout starters to fill that long relief role (Cutch, Karstens, maybe even Lincoln, etc.).
Nice job.....
as always Charlie. I agree with a few people that I’d put Moskos higher. He really has been quite good. I would consider him in the low teens.
Now for the part where you’re going to laugh. Jim Negrych needs to be on the list. Nobody needs to recite his age or defensive deficiencies for me. I got it. But, he’s going to play in the major leagues. Maybe not for the Pirates, but he can hit and he’ll probably be a slightly better version of Delwyn Young when it’s all said and done. I kind of look at him and Pressley the same way with Pressley showing a little more power.
If he can keep up the .330 BA
I’d like to see him up in September and taking Delwyn’s AB’s as our primary PH. If you can hit, they’ll find a place for you. Period.
"a slightly better version of Delwyn Young"
So he’s slightly better than a guy that we bought for a dollar? Talk about damning with faint praise…
I'll just assume....
you’re joking as I won’t bother making the thousand retorts about someone being better than Evan Meek, et al, but I do get your point.
I'm half-joking.
I think that Delwyn Young doesn’t really belong on the roster since he can’t hit like an outfielder and can’t field like an infielder, so if Negrych wants to make the team, he’d damn well better be better than Young.
Good list
Though I’d put Grossman in the low 20s and bump Moskos up a few spots.
Locke should be ranked higher than Adcock, too, IMO. Everything I’ve read about the former has his upside as a fourth or fifth starter; I’d like to think Locke’s ceiling is more than that.
Nice work Charlie...
I agree with most of the commenters here that Moskos should be higher. I would also put Morris #1 and drop Sanchez to #2 and make him a B prospect. He had a good offensive year but not great. Like others he definitely benefited from the home park in Bradenton. Couple that with the defense and injuries and I think he is a B prospect right now as Adam Reynolds pointed out above. A guy that I think needs to be on here is Calivin Anderson. He is still striking out a ton and not walking but was very raw when drafted so it may take some time to get the K’s down but the dude is a monster at 6’7" and has started hitting this year at Bradenton. And unlike many others on that team Anderson is actually hitting better on the road in a very tough hitters league. I think he needs to be his consideration because he probably has the best raw power in the system right now. I think Grossman needs to be bumped back a few spots as well. He has been maybe the biggest disappointment in the system right now. At least D’Arnaud is showing signs of tunrning things around but Grossman looks like he is overmatched in Bradenton.
Grossman is hitting better lately as well.....
Plus, he is 20 years old and draws a lot of walks. That plate presence should serve him very well in the future as he brings his K’s down. If he does, he makes himself a OBP-player at the top of the order.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 4, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Calvin Anderson
Agree on Calvin Anderson. The guy just plain gets better every day. And not just on offense. He uses that 6’7" frame to keep his foot on the bag while scooping up throws that others could not turn into outs.
Anderson looks like an organizational player to me.
He’s old for his league, Bradenton is playing as relatively hitter-friendly for the FSL so you can’t give him too much environmental credit, and the contact rate is scary (particularly for a guy with a strike zone as big as his).
He could make himself into a prospect, but he doesn’t have much margin for error.
he can hit the shit out of the ball
trust me I have seen his raw power in the SAL homerun derby, he hit a few balls over the scoreboard at APP, I would estimate the score board to be about 50 feet tall and 400-425 feet away from home plate. It was impressive to watch
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today." Lou Holtz
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
Oh, I believe you.
I’m just not sure that the rest of the package is good enough to let him leverage that skill into a ML career.
Cross your fingers…
I was just pointing out that he can mash
at that time he was hitting something like .287, but from what I have heard it went down after that
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today." Lou Holtz
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Jul 6, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s Charlie’s Top 20 from 8/21/08 (right after the signing period) for comparison. It’s a sign of progress that just one draft later (since no ’10 draftees are on this list) we can easily get to 30 pretty easily.
Good job
Shows to me why we need to sign a lot of upside picks this year.
No offense to any of these guys, but I don’t see much elite talent.
The fact that people are arguing over Moskos is sad. His upside is Matt Thornton. He’s not going to be an elite closer. And he doesn’t have a wipeout slider.
Enough, already.
It’s always a terrible idea to draft a relief pitcher in the first round.
You can get one in the 40th.
Allie
Allie is not getting a $2 million to $3 million bonus to be a relief pitcher.
It’s not happening. If he washes out as a starter, then they’ll try him as an RP.
But they didn’t choose him in the second round to complement Moskos in the pen.
Come on. They drafted him to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
We’ll see whether it works out.
We wanted JVB to be a starter too
sometimes you have to accept what they are though. Yes, we want Allie to be a starter, but there sure were an awwwful lot of scouting reports that said future closer. I think you draft talent and if that arm only has 2 pitches currently, you try to develop it but I also think the Pirates would admit right now he has a better than decent chance at ending up in the pen.
Moskos was also poor pick for more than just being a reliever. He had the numbers of a 4/5th round pick and a decent arm. Looking back I’m not sure why he was regarded so highly.
That's silly ...
No offense. He’s a high school pitcher. You are not going to have a five-pitch repertoire with command in high school.
Obviously, lots of teams thought he was going to be an SP or he wouldn’t have been viewed as top 10 talent (who fell because of contract demands).
Moreover, I don’t think the Pirates view him as a future closer either. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have drafted him.
Let’s wait until maybe he’s 20 and has a few years in the minors before concluding that he’s likely to end up in the pen.
Moreover, I don’t think the Pirates view him as a future closer either.
NH actually said empahticaly on Rocco’s show that they do not. It would be a huge overdraft and a waste of money if they did. That doesn’t mean he ends up there, but they are drafting him to be a starter. Someone at BP, I think Kevin Goldstein but it’s from memory said they think Allie has as much or more upside than Taillon but much more risk. The upside is due to the speed he throws.
Yinzers uber alles
Daisuke Matsuzaka was billed as having 8 or more pitches, and he can barely throw for a strike in the MLB.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 5, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Two thoughts
I think you’re too low on Chase D’Arnuad. If he can figure out the defense thing (BA named him the best athlete in the Pirates organization (Marte may have something to say about that)) his bat ceiling is a borderline elite SS. I think he has enough projectable power to hit .290 and be a 20/20 guy in his prime.
I also think Jorge Bishop is a glaring admission. I know he’s small, but I’ve haven’t read any scouting report knocking his tools or talent, so I go with what we have to go on. He’s super young, and has put up solid numbers stateside after destroying the VSL. He even had success in an extremely small sample size in the FSL, but it should be noted the numbers indicate he wasn’t overmatched.
Either way, great list.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 4, 2010 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Love, love, love D’arnaud, but no way he becomes a 20-homer player, especially as a right-handed batter in PNC Park. I’m hoping he becomes Mark Loretta with more steals. That would be an accomplishment because Loretta had a really good career.
Charlie’s skepticism on Presley is obviously warranted, but I’m happy to see a left-handed batter emerge. System is way too right-handed.
Why no way on the 20 HRs
He’s projected to have average to average to above average power
I’d have to think above average power in peak years translates to 20HR power. Even if he’s a 290/15/20 guy that’s still great if he can play adequate D at short.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 4, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s athletic and enthusiastic, but displays gap power. If everything breaks right, I see him as a .270-.280 batter with 8-to-12 homers and a decent amount of steals. And that’s valuable in the middle infield. Maybe I’m underrating his power potential, but I can only go by what I’ve seen. He didn’t look like a 20-homer guy in batting practice or the games. PNC will only suppress the power he does have.
But I hope you’re right. He’s on my Rotisserie team.
At least early
you’re probably right that most of his power will find the gaps, but there’s reason to think he could continue to get stronger and have a couple of seasons where he gets near or surpasses 20 jacks.
I think we
can agree to disagree. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if D’Arnaud puts up 20HR or close to it in say 2014 or 2015, when he will enter his age prime. While its optimistic, I don’t think its an impossible pipe-dream.
Personally, I’m more concerned about his glove than his bat. Either way, I guess you are more likely right, but lets hope I’m right, aight?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 5, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The question with d'Arnaud...
is whether he can stay at shortstop. If he can he’s a great prospect. If he can’t his ceiling as a third baseman or second baseman is pretty much Mark Loretta with more steals, as bolton said. That’s a good player, but you’re hoping for a star.
d’Arnaud is a very good athlete, but at some point you have to stop making an error every other game, and the pace of his errors hasn’t slowed down a bit yet. If he doesn’t cut the errors by the end of the year, the Pirates probably will have to think about moving him off shortstop before risking his defensive problems getting in his head and harming his offensive game.
I think we should wait until he can hit .250 or his 3rd HR at AA...
before we label him a great prospect…
This list says to me, first and foremost, that NH/FC et al. have a lot of work still to do.
The farm system is much better than the atrocity DL&Co. left behind, but we need a bunch more quality depth.
Hopefully the 2010 draft and international signings will add to it.
Minor League scouting report
If he has any more games like he had today, I could see Kelson Brown shooting up your org. charts. He was playing for your NY-Penn League (short A) Spikes. Two highlight reel plays at 2B and a triple, demonstrating good speed by him on the play. He flubbed an infield hit up the middle, allowing a runner to score from second (ruled a hit, no error), but overall it was a very solid game.
A new signee of your Matt Curry looked a bit out of shape, didn’t quite have his footwork down to play first properly, at least for the first couple of innings. Had an error late in the game, but it was on a hop that ate him up a bit on one that he was charging, so I don’t completely fault him for it. He looked slow, but was able to leg out a powerful double (perhaps the longest driven ball hit in the game – it bounced high up the wall). He was able to advance though on a ball in the dirt that the opposing catcher kept in front of him. I don’t know if it was ruled a SB, WP or PB, but it was a heads-up play on his part.
No one else seemed worthy of mention today. But your team won.
No one else seemed worthy of mention today.
I assume you were at the game, how did Zack Dodson look? His outing looked impressive in the box score, anyway.
I wasn't at a good angle to see the pitching really
Spikes pitchers had a bunch of Ks in the early going, so there’s that.
Also, the main part of the scoreboard was down, and I don’t even recall them announcing pitching changes. So, sorry that I really can’t comment on that.
Good list
Why is Negrych not in your top 30? I know hes a bit poor defensively, a little bit old, and really isn’t ever expected to be a star, but he continues to prove that he can hit. Weren’t we always a little bit disappointed with the lack of appreciation for Jeff Keppinger’s talents when he was with the Bucs?
He’s old, my understanding is that he’s wretched defensively, and he’s just not that good a hitter, honestly. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 5, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Negrych is kind of a poor man's Keppinger.
Same general skill set, but less defense, less BA, and less contact.
Hey, Keppinger is a legit player.
He has one of the highest contact rates in the majors, which gives him extra tactical utility as a PH, and he can play a below-average-but-acceptable 2B and 3B. That has value. He’s going to have a nice long career on a ML bench.
But Keppinger didn’t make it into the majors in the first place by much, and Negrych is starting out behind him from a skill perspective. He’s going to need to work his ass off to make the majors and stick.
Charlie
I think you should do some sort of comparison of young talent in the majors to put our team in perspective, since the prospect list doesn’t look so hot at the moment. Something like 26 and unders, I’d imagine our future looks a lot brighter that way.
Not to mention once we add 2 elite pitchers to our top 5, 2 others to our top 15 and some other ones to watch.
Under 26 Pirates properties makes the future look better than the below-average current list, but not by a whole lot:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Pedro Alvarez
3. Bryan Morris
4. Neil Walker
5. Brad Lincoln
6. Rudy Owens
7. Colton Cain
8. Zack Von Rosenberg
9. Jose Tabata
10. Tony Sanchez
11. Starling Marte
12. You tell me…
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 5, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Instead of under 26
how about “under team control through such and such a year.” with 2013 or 2014 being a good year.
It’s basically the same list as above but (depending on the year) I believe you can include guys such as Garrett Jones, Steve Pearce, Charlie Morton etc. That’s just off the top of my head. Evan Meek as well? What about Hanarhan (sp?)?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 5, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Meek would make the list (#12?), but I’m not really sold on the others in 2014.
It’s hard to project Jones or Pearce as doing much in 4 years. The other guys like LaRoche, Morton, Milledge, and Clement would also present a challenge. I think LaRoche and Milledge are most likely to stay in some capacity, but that’s not saying much.
We have two impact players in Cutch and Alvarez. After that, I’d put Bryan Morris and Neil Walker (semi-impact guys), because I think Walker is more likely to hit than Tabata or Sanchez. Although the early defensive numbers are very sour on Walker and very high on Tabata. But it’s way too early to tell for defense overall.
Due to Lincoln’s last start, I’d move him up to 5, with his ceiling being maybe a Ben Sheets Lite if we’re very lucky.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 6, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Well it's
also to predict what Starling Marte will be doing 2014. He could be making his second all-star team, or he could be playing AAA ball for the Arizona Diamonbacks. You can make the list with some value on floor, and then determine Jones, Pearce, LaRoche, and Morton’s etc. floor and number them accordingly, but age isn’t as important as team control. Age does determine impending regression versus hoped progression, but why can’t guys like LaRoche, Milledge, or Morton get it together and become useful pieces to a 2013 playoff team. Certainly not because they 26 or older.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think any of Jones, Pearce, Clement, Morton, etc. would make the top 12 even at 2013, but maybe if I made a top 25 or something then may be listed. It’s an idea for another FanPost.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 6, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be an awkward list for two reasons:
1. I don’t think we have a prayer of going to the playoffs as soon as 2013.
2. Morton might somehow be on the team in 2013, while Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson might not be in the bigs yet.
Still, between the combination of ceiling and floor, I’d rank Cain and Stevenson ahead (probably way ahead) of Morton. Who’s going to be the best in 2013 and who has the best future prospects are two different matter.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 6, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Very very true
I guess for the list I’d go with players under control until a certain date but then have to evaluate their potential impact based upon how long each individual player is under contractual control. Like you said, it will get very messy.
I have to disagree strongly that we don’t “have a prayer” of making the playoffs as soon as 2013. We have two things going for us. One, we will be getting much better. If you just take our ML team right now, those 2.5 years to figure it out and get better will be invaluable. I’m gonna throw out a concept, then maybe go do some research, but if you see a % increase in WAR for our 5 young guys (Walker, McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Tabata, and Lincoln) each year between now and then what kinda team would that look like, considering we should be adding a few more pieces next year (Morris, Owens, Moskos, maybe Presley if he sticks).
I’ll look into it more. I will say this, for the 2013 playoff season, I’m kinda banking on hitting it big with this next years draft pick. Personally, I’m hoping for Rendon, but I think Purke and Cole both have the potential to be in the bigs by 2013, and it may be out of ST if the FO feels winning is more important than delaying service time by then.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not factoring in the 2011 draft yet. But certainly, if that draft is a game changer then maybe someone is up by mid-2013 who makes an impact and changes the franchise.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 7, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I need to be heading down to Charleston more often
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"You Don't mess with the USA" Landon Donavan
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
Haha, come on
down buddy
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 5, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you think of Jeremy Farrell? I was told earlier this year to keep my eye on him by someone in the organization and he seemed to be off to a pretty good start until he got hurt. Big guy showing some power this year and his father is a coach for the Red Sox.
Worth watching.
He was fairly well-liked coming out of the draft in ‘08, and then when Matt Hague got off to a hot start after signing it kind of stole all of Farrell’s oxygen.
Sometimes guys just need a year or two to get acclimated to the bigs and find their stroke. I think he could be a player, and I’m glad we have him.
Calvin Anderson
is also starting to hit well. Posting a 800+ OPS. atm and certainly has raw power. His age is a concern for his level, along with some not-so-good strikeout numbers, but he’s another guy I like having in the system.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
those who were just a lil bit excited
About Exicardo Cayonez should be full-on stoked now
He went 7 for 7 in today’s GCL DH sweep of the GCL Phillies
Cayonez is now batting .451
by BadAndy on Jul 6, 2010 4:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I saw that.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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