Morosi: Pirates, Padres In Talks About Paul Maholm
The Pirates are in talks to trade Paul Maholm to the Padres, Jon Paul Morosi reports. Earlier today, Dejan Kovacevic quoted Neal Huntington saying the Pirates could trade a starter.
UPDATE: Buster Olney tweets that the Bucs and Padres are "making progress" on a deal.
UPDATE: Scott Miller of CBS Sports writes that the Mets could be involved here as well.
UPDATE: Kovacevic has a big update that essentially says the Pirates want a major-league-ready starting pitcher for Maholm. We'll see what happens, but that would be a very dumb demand to cling to. Maholm is reliable, but he's not that good, and so if the Padres had a major-league-ready pitching prospect, it would make sense for them to just put that guy in their rotation rather than trading him for Maholm. Under Dave Littlefield, we saw that what usually happens when you seek major-league-ready talent for your mediocre veterans is that you just get a younger player who's even more mediocre. Think here of Matt Lawton for Jody Gerut. The loss of Maholm would put a pretty sizable hole in the rotation, but filling it would be less important than getting upside. Otherwise, you might as well just forget about trading Maholm.
Kovacevic's report makes me think it's less likely the Pirates will deal Maholm. Last week there was a report that the Rangers asked about Joel Hanrahan, and the Pirates wanted Neftali Feliz in return. Feliz plays the same position as Hanrahan and is much younger and arguably already better, so I basically read that as, "Forget it, you're not getting Hanrahan." The Pirates might be doing the same thing here, asking for good young starting pitchers for an older starting pitcher, even though they know there's no reason for another team to make a trade like that. I wonder if they're thinking they're not going to deal Maholm unless some other GM is willing to get ripped off. Obviously, that's all complete speculation on my part.
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi say the Pirates might be working on a deal for catcher Chris Snyder. I assume this is unrelated to the Maholm stuff. I wouldn't mind acquiring Snyder, who would be a nice temp until Tony Sanchez arrives - he's like Ryan Doumit in that he can hit a bit, but he also plays better defense than Doumit does. I'm not sure what would happen to Doumit if the Pirates traded for Snyder; Doumit's trade value right now can't be high.
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why are you hung up on this?
he was traded for a relief pitcher, not a consistent starter who’s at least a #4 on pretty much any team, and #3 on plenty of good teams…
I just don't understand
How a 23-year old player who can’t control the strike zone at all can be such a hot prospect. I know BA loves him and all, but I just don’t get it.
Good tools, good glove.
And you’re underestimating his offensive value. He’s a good contact hitter who’s been young for his leagues, and while he could stand to draw more walks, it’s not like we’re talking about Kevin Haverbusch here.
Kevin Haverbusch
Good one. And Ramos’s last 2 seasons look kind of Haverbuschian to me. Granted, he’s a little young for his levels but still…
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
no idea about Padres prospects
i’ll take their minor league pitching coordinator though, how do they produce all these arms?
Anyway, prospects- Tate’s done nothing almost, Poreda’s a relief pitcher, and I know nothing more! :-P
enlightenment anyone?
so *that's* why Russell let Maholm throw 120 pitches yesterday
more pitches = more chances to give up runs, for lower trade value (and a higher risk of injury)
/sarcasm
And I thought it was because Russell...
…was crazy. Silly me.
Steve Z
I’m disappointed the Padres just moved Pelzer to get Tejada, because he’s been a personal favorite of mine since drafting him a few years ago in my fantasy league.
I’d be interesting in seeing what they’d target out of the Pads system, as they have a deep system, just without a lot of premier talent. Jaff Decker has really struggled this year, and is built like John Goodman, but for some reason I’ve always rooted for him as well.
Washington is making out like bandits
Guzman traded to the Rangers for 2 “good pitching prospects, not yet ML ready”… F*** Aki! That could have been you, if you didnt shutdown like that!
by BurgherKing on Jul 30, 2010 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really don’t even see how Guzman helps the Rangers. I’ve never liked the guy at all. .307 OBP for his career.
i dont either
but maybe he could stay on the ML roster!
Ryan Tatusko being named as one, thats meh… I fully expect to see Martin Perez as the other O.O (and then I will jump from my office window)
Right now...
Rangers infield is a MASH unit. They just put Kinsler on the DL. Their current 2B…Blanco…has 70 AB and a .560 OPS. They just picked up Cantu to play 1B…and he has an iron glove. Guzman is a short term solution.
7 minutes ago Tom Krasovic said the Padres aren’t involved in Paul Maholm talks, but 6 minutes ago Buster Olney said the Padres are “making progress” in Paul Maholm talks.
Love the trade deadline.
so I came here to say
this was what I was thinking, but now it looks close… now it feels like this might have been close for a while, and NH just threw DK teh info… or maybe to get other teams to take a look or send an offer… who knows!
Looking at the Haren/Oswalt deals,
This is gonna be ugly
True
So what’s the over/under on wins the rest of the way sans Maholm?
Let’s see: they’re at 36-65, 61 games to go, 12 of them Maholm starts. Odds are that they’re no better than .500 behind him, so that’s 6 losses. How many more do No Relation/Lincoln/whoever cost them? 2? 4? If it’s Morton, presumably 6.
With Maholm, my guess is that they play around .400 the rest of the way, finishing 60-102. So the question is, will anyone here place a marker that, without Maholm, they can win 63?
I’ll trade anybody to get better, but the rest of this year could be painful. They’ll probably bring Morton back.
The guy to go after in the Pads’ system is RHP Simon Castro. BA rated him #17 in their mid-season top 25. He has good stuff and is doing well in AA. Opp. BA just a little over .200.
yeah?
you think the Pads give away Castro for Maholm? I d love it, but I d be shocked… Looking at the rest of their system, now that the deal is close, I m v v scared!
I dont care about the ML team that much, so if we get a good return for Maholm, I ll be more than happy, and I d much rather take solid prospects in low A or thereabouts than middling ones higher up…
Pads are pitching heavy
At least by reputation. Presumably they could lose Castro without mortgaging their future. And if Maholm gets them into the playoffs on a $35M payroll, then that’s worth a bit of their future.
If they were willing to move Castro,
they probably would have traded for Haren.
still seems a waste
and Jed Hoyer is not stupid, hence my sinking feeling… if it happens, I ll be v happy, of course…
also, another point I wanted to make. The RPs in the Pads system have come out of nowhere, and their farm looking at p[reseason ratings, isnt doing too well this year… maybe they just develop pitchers to learn to pitch better… I d have my doubts about that happening in the Pirates org…
I know Wade's a moron...
…but Happ and Wallace for Oswalt doesn’t bode well if the Buccos seriously want Castro.
by Jameson McNulty on Jul 30, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Wallace ...
is a top-tier corner infielder. I don’t see how that hurts the Pirates. I would have traded Maholm even up for Wallace.
Vlad
This is one we disagree on.
I think he’s going to be a stud.
I think the Jays would have laughed if we had offered Maholm for him.
He might be a top tier bat...
but his glove is made of lead.
I understand the other thing driving down his value
is that he was hitting in the PCL with merely a good OPS for a 1B… although Minute Maid Park is a pretty good choice in that case
Can you believe Jose Bautista is on pace fo 60 home runs?
So who believes that this dude is in Babe Ruth/Roger Maris territory?
Or is he in Mark McGuire/Barry Bones/Sammy Sosa territory?
Imagine Bautista at his arbitration hearing “I hit 60 home runs, I want 15 million”.
This is for a guy who was going to get released for doing nothing for the past 5 years.
Too bad MLB doesn’t test for HGH…
Because there....
really isn’t a reliable test. Doing it in the minors is the first step and first league anywhere. No other major US sports tests for it.
I think it was a rugby league in England or something was the first to start doing the test about 5 years ago. They finally caught someone a couple months back. Apparently the test is only good for about 48 hours after use.
Recent History
is that players PED up for contracts, then stop the juice as not worth risk to guaranteed contracts, then they tank – see Oliver Perez, Angel Beroa, etc. etc. etc.
Gary Mathews Jr....
maybe the king of PED fueled overly fat contracts.
There you go
Gary Mathews Jr Prime example, PED up, get the big $ and get off the juice, bank you money.
GMs are hopefully getting wiser.
Let’s not hear any more critisism of Pirates for dumping Bautista.
Well there is only one way to tell if he used PED's...
You tie weights around his legs and throw him in the river. If he floats he used PED’s, if he drowns than he didn’t. It’s a fool proof method.
He could, however...
be a witch if he drowns. True story
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Mat Latos!
I kid of course. Here is the top 20 for the Padres from Sickels’ site.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/7/1190680/san-diego-padres-top-20-prospects
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Greenwave
Where you been man?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
I've been around
Have an internship in New Orleans so haven’t been able to check out many games. But I lurk from time to time.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Juan Oramas
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=oramas001jua
this is who i would want.
I check up on minor leaguers all the time. BA has been talking him up a good amount this year, and i believe i heard the Padres loaned him to the Mexican league, and he flat out dominated.
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 30, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
small stature
We don’t need any more six foot tall guys who weigh a buck eighty.
Drew Cumberland?
Recently rated as the #2 SS prospect behind Dee Gordon… But just went down with a knee laceration.
Knee laceration?
Like, he cut his knee on a glass coffee table, or his ligaments and/or tendons are like spaghetti?
No thanks with that injury history (unless as part of a big package). I’m not a believer in Everth Cabrera, as well, so hopefully we don’t go there.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The Padres actually have a couple very intriguing players
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 30, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
The Post-Gazette crowd are freaking out...
“OH NO HERE WE GO AGAIN, I’M DONE WITH THIS TEAM!!!!!11111111”
Smizik writes the best stuff
I’m done with this team.
I know, that was the most face-palm-worthy shit I've ever heard!
What happens if a trade doesn’t go down, does he remove the post and pretend it never happened?
Smizik ...
is in rare form today. I saw his today link about how the Capps trade made Pittsburgh look terrible.
I refuse to look at his garbage.
Maybe Ramos is everything BA said. But I don’t think so.
Almost
Makes me wish the Bucs would send 10+ million along with Maholm for the simple purpose of shutting him up. Though I doubt that would even do it.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Smizik ...
already had the column ready and typed in Maholm.
Idiot.
He didn’t even wait to see if he was traded and what the return was.
He has some ad-libs typed up...
Our ace pitcher, ________, was traded for some terrible, no-name prospect, _______, because Bob Nutting is cheap, and couldn’t afford to pay his $__ Million dollar contract.
These trades will never end. Bob Nutting is too cheap. Andrew McCutchen will be gone next year, MARK MY WORDS!
-Bob Smizik, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
i m freaking out too
not like that, but def am… Maholm is our last remaining trade chip… we need to cash it in… thankfully I think NH learnt a v imp lesson from the Sanchez trade!
DK
I had a colleague of DK’s tell me that his sources are largely agents.
He gets little information from the front office.
That’s why you hear these ridiculous reports of several teams are “in” on Aki at times.
I'm very skeptical that trading Maholm is the right idea.
If we could get a promising pitcher who is ready to be up next year to replace Maholm’s arm, then great. But the problem with that is #1. That kind of promising pitcher is not usually gotten for a Maholm, and #2. the best return is probably going to be in AA at the highest.
This trade will pretty much be writing off all of 2011 to another 100 loss season.
I don't buy that one guy is going to save us from 2011 being another 100 loss season,
not by a long shot. Especially not Paul Maholm.
yeah
I dont care enormously about 2011 either… if we get top A+ pitchers (note the plural) who we really like for potential, I ll do it gladly
Actually that's not even my point,
my point is more that one pitcher isn’t going to make a difference that much.
Well, it makes about a 20% difference to the rotation, doesn't it?
Right now, we are shaping up to have about a league average offense. If Alvarez turns it on, then we could be much better than that. The huge problem is obviously the starting pitching. If you take out Maholm, then you’ve got 1 more mountain to climb.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 30, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Mark
this puts 2011 as a lost season if we can’t replace Maholm with a FA in the offseason. We need really 2 new starters but I forsee we might lose Duke as well and lets just say we would have the worst rotation possibly in baseball history if we don’t pick someone else up
by eyeofhorus777 on Jul 30, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Or one of more of Morton/Lincoln/Veal/Hart/Ascanio put it together and help us out.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
They could help us out regardless
You don’t improve by swapping medium talent for medium talent. You improve by swapping your worst players for above average ones (Aki for Walker, LaRoche for Pedro, and hopefully Karstens for some stud out of AAA).
I’m just saying they can help us not be historically bad, it doesn’t need to be a free agent.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Hart and Ascanio ...
won’t be helping us any time soon. With serious shoulder injuries, I really doubt they’ll contribute within the next year.
I’m surprised that NH hasn’t slipped them through waivers to open up spots on the 40-man roster.
On the LMB roster?
That’s what I meant by “helping us.”
I think they both have very long rehabs ahead based on the injuries and recoveries (which aren’t good).
DT
I can’t find anything that he has a very long rehab ahead and that he is throwing light side sessions.
Do you have an updated link?
I wondered how his rehab was coming.
30 starts
If the Pirates are a decent hitting and fielding team, I would expect them to win at least 15 of Paul’s starts. Potentially 18 or even 20. Without Paul, who takes his slot? No Relation? Veal? Morton? Barring a surprise, the team won’t win more than 10-12 of those guys’ starts (and probably fewer). So you could be looking at a 10-win swing, and almost certainly 5.
Of course, NH could go out and get a good FA starter, and we don’t need one of those guys. Morris could accelerate and get here by next June and pitch well. Lots of things could change. But I think that swapping Maholm for McCutchen is a bit more than a 3 win swing, don’t you?
NOTE: This isn’t what WAR would tell you at all, but that’s because of how WAR parcels out wins (and losses), esp. to SPs – WAR says Morton cost us only 0.6 wins in 10 starts this year – does that sound right to anyone? Does anyone think that, across 30 starts, the difference between Maholm and Morton (as he actually pitched this spring) is just 5 wins? That would imply 10 wins in Morton’s 30 starts, whereas in his actual 10 starts, we won once.
NOTE: This isn’t what WAR would tell you at all, but that’s because of how WAR parcels out wins (and losses), esp. to SPs – WAR says Morton cost us only 0.6 wins in 10 starts this year – does that sound right to anyone? Does anyone think that, across 30 starts, the difference between Maholm and Morton (as he actually pitched this spring) is just 5 wins? That would imply 10 wins in Morton’s 30 starts, whereas in his actual 10 starts, we won once.
Morton had no run support, so while he didn’t cost us 0.6 games, he also didn’t cost us anywhere near 9 games either. Probably more like 2-3 games (just a guess).
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah
I didn’t mean that he literally cost us all those 9 losses. But he was legitimately terrible, and there’s no way that, if he pitched like that for another 7 games, it would only have cost us 1 win relative to Karstens (who I think qualifies as a replacement-level SP, at least per WAR). I think that, in 7 or 8 of his starts, we were out of contention within 3 innings. The Yankees couldn’t overcome starts like the ones he gave us.
Incidentally, Morton specifically benefits from the FIP and xFIP calculations (can’t recall which one is in WAR), which refuse to believe that a guy throwing belt-high meatballs wouldn’t exceed the league-average HR/FB rate. I know why they calculate it that way, but it leads to ridiculous numbers on outliers.
Home run “luck” is more relevant when looking at a long-established veteran, like Dan Haren this year is getting unlucky, or even our pal Zach Duke.
But if the pitcher isn’t an established big league arm (Morton, Daniel McCutchen), then a huge volume of home runs could just mean he’s not ready for the bigs.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Completely agree
The premise of a lot of the stats “beyond the control” of pitchers (and, to a lesser extent, batters) is that the outliers are weeded out – no one strands just 50% of baserunners because anyone who did on a consistent basis (presumably because he has the weakest mental makeup known to history) would never reach (or stick) in the majors.
The counterargument has been that a guy like Morton performed better than that in the minors, so it must be random variation. But, as has been noted by every player who’s ever gone from the minors to the majors, the game is faster and the players better in MLB, and mistakes are much less likely to get missed. That’s why a guy like Lincoln can be dominating (or nearly so) in AAA yet flounder in MLB – those 3 bad pitches a night that he snuck past the Brian Bixlers of the world turn into XBHs against the Hanley Ramirezes.
Morton was probably a bit unlucky, but anyone who saw those games saw a guy throwing BP once runners got on base – that ain’t luck.
This trade will pretty much be writing off all of 2011 to another 100 loss season.
You’re right if Bryan Morris and Jeff Locke stink. If they’re better than Maholm (as they should be if they’re quality pitchers worth writing about), then we’re in a better position w/o Paul.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither of them to be in MLB to start 2011, and chances are neither will be ready until 2012.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 30, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet they’re up next year. Double-A to Triple-A isn’t a huge jump, so if they’re doing well in Double-A to the end of the year then I don’t see a full season in Triple-A.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That's still no more than 15-20 starts
And most likely 10-15 (from either of them). And that’s best case: there’s literally zero chance of either of them starting the year in Pittsburgh, and the odds are quite low that both of them get called up in early June, without any hitches.
Oh, and, by inning load, I doubt either of them could pitch much past Labor Day.
It could matter
to JR & NH. Another 100 loss season and I think they’re gone.
With this lineup and tolerable SPs, this could be a 75 win team in ’11. If Locke and Morris get established by next August, the team could be looking at 85+ wins in ’12.
I’d rather not waste more of Andrew McCutchen’s 6 years in Pittsburgh on 100-loss seasons than is strictly necessary.
But hey, I’ve always said that I’m OK with moving Maholm – for the right return. But it needs to be something really solid to justify another 5-10 losses in ’11.
5-10 losses? Can’t agree with that figure very. Has to be 5 or less. You figure Maholm is only a 4 win pitcher at best, and you could probably get a 2 in pitcher as a stop gap in free agency.
The FA pitcher could be another Randy Wolf, but then so could Maholm. They are similar pitchers coming into this year.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
10 wins is like from Albert Pujols to Steve Pearce, not Maholm to replacement or 1 WAR arm. Not unless they pitched like Morton for a full 35 starts.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you see my explanation above?
I don’t think WAR actually gives a very accurate picture of what a SP does. If you’re going to lean heavily on those numbers, then you need to consider Morton just a hair worse than a replacement pitcher – and we already know that you don’t.
At any rate, the 10 is clearly a worst case scenario, one involving a series of AAA failed callups (iow, exactly what we experienced this spring with Ohlie out). If we sign a FA, then the dropoff is less. But I think it’s ridiculous to pay in free agency for what Maholm already gives us – I don’t think we replace his performance for the same price. And that still leaves us with Karstens or whoever as a 5th SP.
I don’t think WAR actually gives a very accurate picture of what a SP does. If you’re going to lean heavily on those numbers, then you need to consider Morton just a hair worse than a replacement pitcher – and we already know that you don’t.
I agree with you, but who says we’re inviting Morton back for next year’s rotation? If we trade Maholm, the replacement will most likely be an uninspiring – but not disastrous – Aaron Harang type. More like a 2 win dropoff from him to Maholm in the real game.
At any rate, the 10 is clearly a worst case scenario, one involving a series of AAA failed callups (iow, exactly what we experienced this spring with Ohlie out). If we sign a FA, then the dropoff is less. But I think it’s ridiculous to pay in free agency for what Maholm already gives us – I don’t think we replace his performance for the same price. And that still leaves us with Karstens or whoever as a 5th SP.
It’s ridiculous to pay slightly over-dollar only if you can’t get top prospects for Maholm.
Then again, someone like Jon Garland signed for $5 mil this past year, and he is comparable to Maholm. Given that type of market, Mahom at 5.75 million isn’t a massive bargain next year.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You may be right about Maholm's replaceability
It’s not that I’m overvaluing Maholm (I don’t think), but that I see some pretty crummy pitchers getting some pretty great contracts, and it makes me wonder.
In the bigger picture, I think that this club really, really needs to try signing a #2-type FA SP, but that there’s no way at all that this happens if Maholm is gone and they sign a Garland to replace him. And if they don’t sign a Garland to replace him, then all you’ve done with your big #2 signing is gain a win (and a half?) over Maholm. Point being, I want to see this staff step forward by replacing Karstens with someone between Brandon Morrow and Mike Pelfrey.
To some extent this is a whole ‘nother discussion, but my thinking is, basically, the well is dry for at least a bit (the closest guys started ’10 in high-A), we’ve got too many 3-4 pitchers in the rotation, and we’ve got only one guy (Ohlie) who throws with any authority. Even though we’re not going to win anything in ’11, it would be useful for everybody if the club stepped forward, and upgrading the SPs to match the upgraded offense would be a great step. Furthermore, such a guy on a 3 year contract would contribute to the first winning teams and hold down the fort until ZVR and some of the other young guns are ready. Given the payroll, we can afford it
that would be unfortunate
I realize GMs have to think about saving their job occasionally, but we should be willing to take the difference between a 95 and a 100 loss season in order to get better in 2013-14… Maholm is just not worth not taking solid prospects for, esp for a team that has no hope of contending… the chances of turning around from a 68 to an 85 win team are just the same… assuming you think Maholm goes in 2013 anyway…
Well it's all moot
If Maholm can be replaced with like talent for a like price. But this team is on pace for well over 100 losses right now. Take away Maholm without signing an FA to replace him, and next year’s team has a plausible shot at getting worse. I really don’t think that it’s good for anyone if, in the second season with your core group of young position players, the team is declining. Among other things, then you need to get from 105 losses in ’11 to 68 losses in ’13, presumably by magic. A 95 loss team (maybe 90 if they replace Karstens with a #2) is a lot closer to plausibly improving that far.
Any impact on the 2011 Pirates that Morris can have is going to be negligible, simply for the fact that his innings are going to be very limited by the time he would reach Pittsburgh. He only pitched 72 innings last year, and is running up against his innings limit this year already at 108. Next year he will maybe get to 150 or 160. By the time he proves something in AAA, he will only have about 10 starts possible in MLB if that.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 30, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Locke has been over 100 innings the past few years, so maybe he could make 15 starts next year.
2011 is already a lost cause as far as win/loss record (although I don’t think they’ll be historically bad again because of the hitting), and if you can’t find an equal stopgap to Paul Maholm in this upcoming year’s FA crop then you aren’t looking hard enough.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Morris, Locke
I wonder if they are both called up next June after the Super 2 time passes.
Joking aside
I think the best realistic case is that one of them is – the odds seem very long that both of them progress at the fastest possible pace. Among other things, Morris only gets another handful of starts this year, so his development is basically on hold until next spring. Which is fine, because this has been a great year for him, but it’s not even a given that he starts ‘11 in AAA. Locke is less problematic (also less talented), but as I said, I simply can’t see them both getting here next June, barring really extraordinary luck.
What’s wrong with having Maholm, Morris, and Locke all in the same rotation? Then we’re even better.
Nothing
But I’d prefer Owens, Morris and Locke with a shortstop that is an improvement over Cedeno
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Ruben Tejeda
Is MLB-Ready, has a solid bat, and good glove. If we’re going to send Maholm to the Mets, I’m hoping Tejeda is involved.
Plus
He’s blocked by Reyes (though he IS putting up just a .7 WAR season to this point). If I’m NH, that’s the first call I make
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
What does
Jennifer Langosch say? She’s the Pirate’s in house blogger; surely she’ll break the new first.
Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!
Meanwhile . . .
MLBTR says the Yankees are close to getting Berkman. That should shave about 0.50 off the Pirates’ team ERA.
With that and Jim Edmonds retiring
The Bucs should have a Top-5 staff next year.
elvishasleft.com
bestweekever.tv
Dejan_Kovacevic:
#Pirates, #Padres NOT close to Maholm deal, per high-ranking team source. S.D. ‘Just fishing.’ less than a minute ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
According to Keith Law
Both the Padres and the Dodgers are in a bidding war for Maholm. I don’t know. I really think he should stay
Fans are clingy complaining dip****s who will never ever be grateful for any concession you make. The sooner you tune out their shrill, tremulous voices, the better you'll be.
Ben "Yahtzee" Croshaw
…Guys, we could be getting some real cheese for ol’ Pauly.
by ryebr3ad on Jul 30, 2010 5:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
would be great
but i think they’ll be looking for pitching
It's some "inside" info from ESPN
I can’t link to it
Fans are clingy complaining dip****s who will never ever be grateful for any concession you make. The sooner you tune out their shrill, tremulous voices, the better you'll be.
Ben "Yahtzee" Croshaw
by ytownbucsfan on Jul 30, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s in their Rumor Central section. You can only read it if you have insider:
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors#6569
Then you could paste what it says there, for the people who don’t have it.
There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball - unfortunately, neither of them work.
All it says is the Dodgers heard the Padres were close and came after Maholm hard.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And that they prefer him to Lilly or Westbrook because he’s under control for longer.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Or they’re just trying to run up the price their division rival has to pay.
by fuzzynewq on Jul 30, 2010 5:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Charlie frowns upon it as far as I remember
Fans are clingy complaining dip****s who will never ever be grateful for any concession you make. The sooner you tune out their shrill, tremulous voices, the better you'll be.
Ben "Yahtzee" Croshaw
by ytownbucsfan on Jul 30, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
No, he couldn't.
He could summarize and link, if he wants, or post a brief excerpt with commentary. But doing more is theft.
Bidding war
If teams want to have a bidding war over Maholm, NH has to listen.
I agree with Mark’s posts that you don’t just trade him.
But if you can get an elite prospect, or several B+ ones, you have to consider it.
Update from DK
The Pirates want a ready-for-primetime pitcher in return.
What possible sense does that make? And, frankly, that does sound a bit like a salary dump.
Wait, what?
I don’t get how “we want a ready-for-primetime pitcher in return” sounds like a salary dump, personally.
Ooh ooh
Maybe we can get Mat Latos
/s
Fans are clingy complaining dip****s who will never ever be grateful for any concession you make. The sooner you tune out their shrill, tremulous voices, the better you'll be.
Ben "Yahtzee" Croshaw
by ytownbucsfan on Jul 30, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Dumb. Take the best players whether they are in Single-A or not.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you. A ready MLB pitcher is probably not far off from Maholm’s level. If that’s what SD would give, then why wouldn’t they just bring the kid up?
This is stoopid.
by fuzzynewq on Jul 30, 2010 5:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To follow up
My reasoning on why it’s a bit like a salary dump:
Let’s say that the returning pitcher is about where Lincoln is on the development curve – that’s what DK is saying [“preferably one ready to pitch in Pittsburgh”]. If he were as good as Maholm (that is, a league-average #3 or a bit better), then the Padres would simply use him. Even if he’s raw – let’s say a half season away – how would the Padres be willing to give him away for the same performance, but a bit sooner?
My point being, a pitcher who’s ready to pitch for us, but not for the Padres, is a guy who’s noticeably worse than Maholm. And so we’re trading multiple years of a useful, affordable pitcher for 6 years of a worse, but very cheap pitcher.
Whereas a AA guy, you’re taking on more risk and buying the Padres a lot more time, so it may well be a significant upgrade in talent. Maholm is due to give us ~8+ WAR over the rest of his contract, for (someone said) $15M. The AA kid could easily give us 10 WAR for $5M over his first 4 years, and we can decide what to do then. But the AAA guy, who’s ready right now, is going to give us, what, 3 or 4 WAR over the next couple years, but for dirt cheap.
Good
I started typing that immediately, but it took awhile to get it right.
Actually (and I’m not primarily leaning on Lincoln, but it’s illustrative) I think Lincoln is a good model: a guy whose ceiling is pretty much Paul Maholm, and who is ready to pitch in Pittsburgh. I can certainly see where SD wouldn’t want to rely on him for a playoff run, while the Pirates can afford to let him struggle a bit.
But is Lincoln (as he appears to be) really all you want in return for Maholm, in a situation where we can afford to keep him, and he’s got an attractive contract for the acquiring team? I just don’t see the point, since Lincoln’s downside is #5 starter – he could very well provide fewer WAR over 6 years than Paul does over the next 2.3. I just can’t see us getting an upside arm (say, a Locke who could end up a #2 and is unlikely to be less than a #4), that’s ready for the bigs right now, that represents, on balance, a winning exchange for Maholm. And so you wonder why they’d do it other than salary. I’m super not interested in a Lincoln plus some A-level MI who’s yet another NH rehab project.
I hadn’t read this until now, but I just posted an update that says pretty much what you just said.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 30, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Separate budget
At least they swear up and down that that’s the case.
Aside from that, it would be inexcusable for a team that’s making a profit on a $35M payroll to need to dump payroll to sign a draft pick, even a pricey one.
...
We are talking record spending this year in the draft… it has to come from somewhere… plus with international signings amping up…
What I find most curious is we have a bidding war with two teams in possession of arguably the best two SS prospects? Is it at all possible that NH is instigating this to get one of the two??
Don't get my hopes up
Honestly, if we could find a stud SS who’s ready by ’12 and Sanchez pans out….
I need a cold shower.
JRoth
I laugh at the separate budget silliness.
And then you’ll see the Pirates trade someone and talk about how the $s will go into international signings and the draft.
But if they do trade Paul, I hope the draft budget is upgraded more and they sign even more of the upside guys.
Package Dotel and Carrasco for your MLB ready starter...
… throw in Bixler too.
Plus of course one of those shiny A or A+ guys.
MAHOLM FOR DAVID WRIGHT
Just kidding, I feel like I missed everything…should be a fun game thread tonight.
Black Shoe Diaries, SB Nation Pittsburgh
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
wrt Charlie's update
It makes no sense that the Pirates would be asking the world for Maholm… or even Hanrahan for that matter… don’t take a bad return but they should be very open to trading both these guys depending on what we can get back… something does not compute here…
Bobby Hill for Maholm?
“He can step in immediately”
except that hill...
had a broken bone in his back. Ahhh, Littlefield.
Everth Cabrera
Not sure if anyone has brought this up, browsed through the posts and didn’t see anything, but I would LOVE if we could acquire this kid.
MLB capable shortstop, doesn’t turn 24 until November, good speed, nice upside, could be a special player.
All of those are reasons he probably isn’t going to be in a deal, but if the Pirates contribute alot in salary relief, combined with pressure from the Dodgers, could Everth Cabrera be coming to the ’Burgh???
What about unloading these two:
Andy LaDouche AND Aki-n’t play no-Mora in any deal?
LaDouche?
Do you know he’s a douche or are you just calling him one cuz he sucks?
Black Shoe Diaries, SB Nation Pittsburgh
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Jul 30, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
LaDouche Brothers are just
wannabees, wanted to be like their Dad who was a mediocre player.
By the way, aren’t they really half brothers? They don’t look much alike.
So I'm going to ask the question again
Do you know he’s a docuhe or are you just saying it because he sucks?
Black Shoe Diaries, SB Nation Pittsburgh
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Jul 30, 2010 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He does throw HGH accusations around. Class posting
by ryebr3ad on Jul 30, 2010 7:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry if you are so sensitive and “PC”.
I brought this up with Dejan on the chat and he addressed the issue, that players whose career’s haven’t done anything and suddenly bust out are legitimately suspect for PEDs. If it hurts your feelings for someone to point this out, then go cheer for Barry Bones.
Yeah, I saw someone brought that up.
I’m disappointed that it was someone from this community doing the asking. And your recall may be flawed, in that he wasn’t nearly as supportive of your position as you seem to think that he was.
Accusing people of serious crimes without any evidence is a pretty shitty thing to do.
Watch it Vlad. He might accuse you of being ‘sore’.
by ryebr3ad on Jul 30, 2010 7:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Its obvious that the Pirates
have been at a huge disadvantage for years due to PED users throughout the league. While everyone laments the losing streak and complains about our GMs for various trades, its amazing that even people on this forum are missing this major point. Any mediocre player at the end of their string who suddenly leads the league is more likely a PED user, then the GMs are stupid for letting them go.
Why is that "obvious"?
There were lots of Pirates and former Pirates in the Mitchell Report. Kevin Young, Armando Rios, Matt Lawton, etc. We got as much benefit as anybody else did – we just started out with shittier players, so we stayed behind.
Davey Johnson hit 43 home runs in 1973, and never had more than 18 in any season before or after. Was he using PEDs?
And of course, if a player gained 20-30 extra HR in one offseason just by using PEDs… then why on earth would he stop? If Brady Anderson was a ginormous steroid cheat, why didn’t he keep taking them and hit 50 HR every year? Did he get bored? Or decide that it was un-sporting? What?
Here's the chat response in question:
Raising the issue of possible PED use, as it relates to straight news reporting versus opinion writing, is a really serious matter. It can destroy a player’s reputation, damage his income, even wreck a career. You had better have facts, not just guesswork.
In Jose’s case, you saw him hit home runs while he was in Pittsburgh, often at very impressive distances, usually to straightaway center. You also saw him show good patience and selectivity at the plate. The tools were there, even if the execution was not. -Dejan, 7/26/2010
It’s hard for me to see that as Dejan affirming in any way that guys in Bautista’s position are “legitimately suspect”.
Dejan was being "PC" and
has to do so to keep his paid job. You can loosen up a bit on a forum, you don’t have to be scared or PC about the obvious.
I don't "have to be" anything.
Which is why I’m under no obligation to be polite to you about this. If you accuse someone of a crime because you like to flap your gums and you have no knowledge of (or interest in) how PEDs actually work, then you’re a know-nothing asshole.
Is that “loose” enough for you?
No one accused anyone of committing a crime,
unless being an ignorant A-hole is a crime, then yes I do accuse you!
by BucsFaninCA on Jul 30, 2010 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
possessing/taking HGH without a prescription is a crime. So, implying that he is having the season he is because he took HGH is accusing someone of a crime.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
And for the record
You misused the word ignorant here. It’s a major pet peeve of mine. Ignorant does not mean rude, it means “Lacking knowledge or awareness in general; uneducated or unsophisticated.” Vlad really did not say anything uneducated in his post. Meaning, ironically enough, you are the ignorant person in this situation by misusing the word.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Loose?
What is this, a spa?
Black Shoe Diaries, SB Nation Pittsburgh
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Jul 30, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on Fugi
EVERYONE knows that baseball players who aren’t starters are jerks
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
I keep trying, but I just can’t get that to sound anything like Akinori Iwamura.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
So if I were to go out on a limb...
…and name a player from the Padres’ end of things who’s going to be in the deal, I’d put my chips on Cory Luebke. Profiles as a mid-rotation lefty starter similar to Maholm. Is fairly close to the majors (spent most of 2010 in AA, then got called up to AAA for three starts), but not quite ready yet, so they couldn’t just promote him instead of making a trade. He’s a big tall guy, which we like (listed at 6’4", 215). He’s probably expendable for the Padres, given their relatively solid SP depth. And to top it all off, we actually drafted him out of high school in 2004, though we didn’t sign him, so any of those scouts who are still left are probably still going to be into the kid.
On a more personal level...
…I’ve liked James Darnell since the draft, and since SD also currently has pretty good 3B depth, they could probably afford to spare him. His 2010 line is pretty grim, possibly due in part to some injuries, but I’m still a believer.
Looking at the John Sickels list for San Diego, they have a few hitters who have disappointed this season compared to their prospect status entering the year. Possibly good buy-low candidates if we could pick the right apples.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Pirates.com says we acquired a veteran minor league journeyman named Mitch Jones. Don’t know for what.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 30, 2010 7:33 PM EDT reply actions
Ah, Mitch Jones.
He’s a fun guy. Big power, marginal contact ability and walk rates. Could probably be a decent reserve OF, though he’s getting a little long in the tooth.
254 professional HR and counting. Three-time minor-league All-Star. And a grand total of eight major league games played.
Let's see...
Coming into 2010, his projections were:
ZiPS: .232/.307/.449
CHONE: .227/.303/.426
Both would probably be down a bit, since he’s putting up a sub-.800 OPS at AAA so far.
It is possible to trade one solid SP
for a younger, cheaper version of the same thing.
The Pirates traded John Smiley for Denny Neagle, and then four years later traded Denny Neagle for Jason Schmidt. The string was broken with Ryan Vogelsong, but it can be done.
I wouldn’t mind Snyder if we could get out from under Doumit’s contract. Two overpaid catchers at the same time isn’t a great situation.
by Adam Reynolds on Jul 30, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed...i would rather have Snyder than Doumit though
dont they have similar contracts?
Agreed
I think Snyder would be an improvement over Doumit. Some power. Competent defensively.
Doumit’s trade value, I’d imagine, is Argenis Diaz/Hunter Strickland types (which is another way of saying ‘nothing’). Probably same situation with Chris Snyder, though.
I'd guess a bit more
But not much. You could probably get an interesting, but not accomplished, AA guy or a talented, but less than certain, A guy. Whereas Diaz has never looked like he could start in the bigs.
You need a good match, though. He’s no longer a guy that most teams would take over even a serviceable catcher, just because his defense has declined so far.
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