The Royals (?) Show How Rebuilding Is Done
Not to be a buzzkill or anything, because plainly the Pirates are a lot more interesting than they were a year ago, and I enjoy watching the games a lot more now that the lineup contains Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker. But has anyone seen what the Royals have been up to lately? Not the major league team, which obviously is pretty bad, but their minor league system, where they have a ton of players whose numbers (and ages) jump off the page. Ironically, the Royals got some bad press recently when pitcher Zack Greinke said he wasn't particularly enthused about the team's rebuilding effort. But that effort deserves more positive attention than it's gotten. Here are some of the key names:
-P- Mike Moustakas, 21, 3B, 1st round, 2007: .316/.368/.606 at Classes AA and AAA. The Royals moved Moustakas up after he posted middling numbers at Class A+ last year, and he has responded with 26 homers so far.
-P- Eric Hosmer, 20, 1B, 1st round, 2008: .341/.415/.564 at Classes A+ and AA. Hosmer struggled a bit last year, but so far this year he has 56 extra-base hits.
-P- Wil Myers, 19, C, 3rd round, 2009: .322/.435/.504 at Class A and Class A+, which is ridiculous for his age.
-P- John Lamb, 20, SP, 5th round, 2008: 1.73 ERA, 137 K, 34 BB in 124.2 innings at Classes A, A+, and AA.
-P- Mike Montgomery, 21, SP, 1st round, 2008: 1.76 ERA, 73 K, 18 BB in 71.2 innings at rookie ball and Classes A+ and AA.
This, actually, is what a rebuilding effort should look like. I have no faith that Royals GM Dayton Moore can turn this group of players into an actual contending team, but this could very well be the core of a contending team. It's interesting that, while the big-league Royals have recently been noteworthy mostly for pointlessly acquiring veterans like Jason Kendall and Rick Ankiel, they've pursued pretty much the same strategy in the draft that the Pirates have - spend tons and tons of money. This offseason, when those top-100 prospects lists start coming out, the Royals will probably have all of these guys in the top 50.
Certainly, Pedro Alvarez compares favorably to most of these guys, but there isn't anyone else in the Pirates' minor league system right now who does. Some of that certainly is bad luck, as Starling Marte is definitely someone who could have had a breakout year like the one that, say, Myers is having, but Marte and several other top prospects got involved in weird injuries this year. It's also worth pointing out that at this point last year, the Royals' farm system looked like it was all fancy draft picks and little to show for them - Moustakas and Hosmer were coming off mediocre seasons, and Myers and Lamb hadn't done much yet. When you shoot for the stars in the draft, things can come together quickly. But as much as there have been lots of interesting developments this year involving Pirates players now in the big leagues (Walker and Tabata, in particular), and as much as I think their 2010 draft has the chance to be a great one if they sign Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie, it's been a very disappointing season so far in the minor leagues.
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minor leagues misfortune
yes, it was bad in the minor leagues, but those things are high-variance. People jump up on the lists with one good year and can fall just as quickly. If those guys come back and play well, they’ll jump right back.
Imagine what a good 2011 would make the Bucs top prospects look like- Taillon(A+/AA), Allie(A-/A), Marte(AA/AAA), Holt (A+/AA), DArnaud(AA/AAA), Lorin(A+/AA), Sanchez (AA/AAA), Locke(3A), Morris(3A), Owens(3A), Wilson(3A), Cunningham(A+/AA), and suddenly the system looks loaded all the way!
Yeah, I think that’s pretty much what happened with the Royals this year. They had a disappointing year last season, sort of like the one the Bucs are having now, and now they’re roaring back. Of course, Moustakas and Hosmer were always much more premium guys than anyone the Pirates have in their system, at least until they sign Taillon.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2010 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
right
wasnt Hosmer the one whose contract was thrown into jeopardy over the controversy with when Pedro signed? or was that Posey?
Zach Von Rosenberg
Has been encouraging as of late. Should we expect him to start the year in WV? Will Marte start the year in Bradenton? I’m imagining he will due the time lost due to injury, although AA doesn’t seem entirely out of the question.
I expect ZVR to be at WV
Along with Cain, Dodson, Pounders, Stevenson and Taillon
by BadAndy on Aug 10, 2010 10:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
which
Is why im getting season tickets. Gonna love living in charleston next summer even more.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
im thinkin bout doin the same next summer
I’m tired of livin in BFE
by BadAndy on Aug 10, 2010 5:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
BFE?
getting season tickets to the Power or the Pirates? I’m talking about the Power.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s surprising they’re this successful (with 5 top 25 guys), but not that the Royals are improving overall under their current FO.
It starts at the top. Dayton Moore has a scouting background with the Braves, and is probably more decorated in that respect than Neal Huntington. Moore has also surrounded himself with good baseball men, although the veteran stopgaps have been underwhelming (not unlike the Pirates).
Kansas City is strong in the areas Pittsburgh is weakest, even in the majors: RF/1B productive bats with juice, and front-line starting pitching.
People should acknowledge the difference.....
Between a disappointing season ‘due to injuries’ and a disappointing season due to regression of performance of individual players.
The former has occurred with more frequency than the latter. And, to not clearly state that that is the issue, is misleading and inaccurate.
Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, Nathan Baker, Phillip Irwin, Alex Presley, Brandon Moss, Diego Moreno, Matt Hague, Mel Rojas, Jr., Matt Curry, ZVR, Colton Cain, Brooks Pounders, Exicardo Cayonez (and other DSL/VSL guys) have all had good seasons and have improved this year, both in their development and in their prospect status (and, in Moss’s case, seems to have revived it somewhat).
That doesn’t even discuss the fact that Tony Sanchez was playing well with a great OBP before being injured; same with Starling Marte, who appears to have picked up where he left off following his injury; Gorkys Hernandez was doing a revival act before he got injured; Chase D’Arnaud has been steadily improving since the beginning of the year, making it more likely (as opposed to less) that his bout with mono was a factor in his early season struggles), etc. Also, the additions of Andrew Lambo (not far removed from being #1 on the Dodgers prospect lists) has been very solid, and showing some pop, since being acquired.
And, hell, Walker/Tabata/Alvarez were all prospects at the beginning of the year who had such good seasons at AAA that they are now helping us at the ML level. That is what prospects are being counted on…..
So, I just don’t see the ‘disappointment’ that some do. Especially, in terms of development and performance. I just don’t…..
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 8:08 AM EDT reply actions
People should acknowledge the difference…..
Between a disappointing season ‘due to injuries’ and a disappointing season due to regression of performance of individual players.
The former has occurred with more frequency than the latter. And, to not clearly state that that is the issue, is misleading and inaccurate.
That would be misleading, but I did point out pretty clearly that a lot of the Pirates’ problems at the minor league level have to do with injuries. Maybe in your rush to reflexively dismiss anything that might seem mildly critical of the front office, you missed that?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Read the last sentence of your article, Charlie.....
And, this isn’t the first time that you didn’t leave out the ‘injury issue’ as it relates to this year being disappointing. You did it in your Prospect list, as well, and, I, and others, took issue with it there.
I can assure you I can read. Thanks for the sarcastic, and, again, inaccurate reply.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
??? Seriously, what’s wrong with you? Yes, my last sentence leaves out the injury issue … because it’s mentioned, explicitly, earlier in the paragraph. I don’t have to mention every relevant factor in every sentence. That’s not how the English language works. I’m supposed to be able to depend on readers to synthesize information I gave a couple sentences earlier.
And as for my prospects list – I mentioned the injury thing repeatedly in the first paragraph. And I searched for you in the comments, and you didn’t take issue with that supposed omission there, and neither, as far as I can tell, did anyone else.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I probably shouldn't get involved but....
I wouldn’t say writing “Some of that certainly is bad luck” is explicit. Writing “it’s been a very disappointing season so far in the minor leagues” is a pretty strong statement that is very easy to disagree with.
Perhaps a more fair view would be that some prospects have had disappointing years while others have shown real promise and put up great years.
Players having a disappointing year:
Robbie Grossman – Although he put up a 278 avg in July but he’s in a 4 for 30 slump right now.
Quincy Latimore – Started off good in April but has been inconsistent since.
Chase D’Arnaud – Has struggled most of the year but is improving.
Gorkys Hernandez – Fallen from top prospect status.
Tim Alderson – Fallen from top prospect status.
Wesley Freeman – Struggling but still young.
Evan Chambers – Struggling but might be improving.
Players having a pretty good year -
Brock Holt
Calvin Anderson
Nathan Adcock
Jeff Locke
Bryan Morris
Alex Presley
Matt Hague
Josh Harrison
Bryan Morris
Justin Wilson
Rudy Owens
Then there are guys who were having good seasons only to be injured like Marte and Sanchez.
I’m not really looking at rookie levels as stats are far less important then preparation for moving up the levels.
Steve Pearce has shown some worth and who would have predicted Walker turning into the Pirates second baseman of the future.
At worst this has been an average year in the minors, not great but hardly a very disappointing season in the minors.
Writing "it’s been a very disappointing season so far in the minor leagues" is a pretty strong statement that is very easy to disagree with.
That’s certainly true, but really has nothing to do with CabreraDeath’s point.
To engage with what you’re saying, though: I just don’t agree. Seasons really shouldn’t be measured on the lukewarm successes of marginal prospects like Anderson, Hague and Harrison. And Holt is out for the season. I agree that it’s nice that Adcock, Locke, Morris, Presley, Wilson and Owens have taken steps forward. But to lose Sanchez and Marte, who arguably have more upside than anyone on the first list except perhaps Morris, really hurts, and a lot of the more interesting arms, like Quinton Miller, Victor Black and to a lesser extent Brett Lorin and Jeff Inman, have hardly pitched at all.
When players have actually stayed on the field, their performance overall has met expectations or perhaps been even a bit better than that. Unfortunately, a lot of the best, highest-impact ones haven’t been on the field. Matt Hague having a good season at Altoona means almost infinitely less than Marte and Sanchez missing months at a time.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Injuries.....
To our top guys….is disappointing.
However, the way you have phrased your ‘disappointment’ with our minor leagues gives off the impression that our whole farm system has been a disappointment. That simply is not true….
Your article, and others before it, seem to indicate that our system, as it relates to those that have actually played, has performed underneath expectations. That isn’t close to being true……
You can be sarcastic with me all you want to. However, I just simply disagree with your assessment and feel you are talking out of line.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Your article, and others before it, seem to indicate that our system, as it relates to those that have actually played, has performed underneath expectations. That isn’t close to being true……
Man, you’re just wrong. I talk about the injury problems Pirates prospects have had all the time, and every time I’ve suggested that it’s been a disappointing minor league season, it’s been with regard to the injuries, which I’ve talked about over and over. It has never had to do with the idea that "those who have actually played" have been disappointing, because I just don’t agree with that generalization and I don’t think I ever have.
I think the nonsensical line you’re taking in this thread pretty much speaks for itself, as does your history of obnoxious, combative behavior on here. It’s getting thoroughly predictable that in any post that’s critical of the front office, you’ll be in the comments accusing me of intellectual dishonesty ("misleading and inaccurate"), or misinterpreting something, or thinking like Ron Cook, or saying something that requires a retraction, or some other offense. You’ve done this sort of thing with dtoddwin, too. Other people in this community seem to be able to disagree without assuming someone who thinks differently is stupid, incompetent and/or malicious, but you apparently can’t, or won’t. Until you do, you’re probably going to have to get used to people being annoyed with you, and acting like it.
Sorry, anyone else who happens to be reading this.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess....
I just don’t like your articles, Charlie. I guess I just don’t think you know the subject that you speak about.
You can call me obnoxious, combative, or disagreeable all you want. But, when someone speaks in a substantive nature, such as Vlad, or Dtoddwin, or WTM, I usually have an opinion, but I respect their point of view.
With you….I think you try to be glib, or try to be clever….over substance.
You speak of no one knowing or realizing that the Royals system is superior….yet, everyone who follows minor league baseball, knows that the Royals system is superior. You speak of not knowing why ‘Pearce isn’t in the majors’ yet it is easily explainable by injury. You take issue with the Pirates firing some staff worker for speaking poorly about the franchise – without mentioning that every other team in professional sports would do the same. You speak of the disappointment of the Pirates minor league system but gloss over the fact that most of the disappointments are caused by injury. Your two favorite players, and by favorite, I mean ‘predicting most potential’, were Steve Pearce and Andy LaRoche…….have been colossal disappointments.
I can disagree with a lot of people on this site without being disagreeable. You, however, can’t take any criticism of your own articles. Do you really expect everyone to buy, hook/line/sinker your opinions on the Pirates? I don’t buy it….because I don’t think you know as much as I do, or many others on here, regarding the same.
You fault the staff for PR moves without full information on why those same moves have been made. Does that command respect of your point of view….or rather put you a shade above the PG columnists? I think the latter…..
Look – your site is good because of the posters that populate it. I don’t really respect your articles, your premature comments on the FO’s decisions, or your top prospects lists. However, I appreciate exchanging thoughts and opinions with other guys on the forum that DO know what they are talking about. You can bitch at me all you want….but, the truth is, this site is bigger than your ‘attempting to be funny/clever posts’. It is about the forum and about the posters.
Once you realize that, you will ignore me as much as I ignore you.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I can disagree with a lot of people on this site without being disagreeable.
So why haven’t you done that?
I think I do.....
I guess I am not nearly as sensitive (re: pussyish) as some of you.
I like full-contact exchange of ideas, not sensitivity because someone said that I am wrong or mistaken.
I guess I take the more ‘manly route’ as opposed to being hung up the niceties of the give-n-take.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally...
…I think that Charlie provides a lot of good, substantive analysis, and has a very thorough knowledge of the team. He’s the reason I started posting on this site in the first place.
I'd third that
Charlie, I think you set the tone for site, which is why it’s home to some of the most thoughtful discussions involving baseball and the pirates you’ll find on the internet.
Yeah, I agree with you but add that seasons can’t be measured on a serious gap in talent in the minor leagues due to years of poor drafting. At this point besides Alvarez and to an extent Tabata, the only thing the Pirates have is marginal prospects.
You never know though when someone who you think is a marginal prospect is going to turn out to be a pretty good MLB player. Another thing is that the Pirates international investments are still in the works.
I agree that the Royals farm does look pretty good right now but as others have said, it should be interesting to see the Pirates farm in a couple years. If we’re all not saying wow the Pirates farm has a lot of interesting and great future MLB players then I imagine NH would be on the hot seat.
And, FWIW, the Royals Minor Leagues.....
Has gotten a tons of attention, as it should. They are the talk of the blogs, the talk of scouts/GMs everywhere, and anyone who follows the minor leagues, has been well aware of the abundance of talent that the Royals organization currently possesses.
So, again, to say that the system hasn’t ‘gotten the attention it deserves’ is a misnomer and completely inaccurate.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Aug 10, 2010 8:12 AM EDT reply actions
Rookie
We need to wait and see if the 3 rookies Tabata, Walker, and Alvarez can keep up their production next year.
Butler / Hosmer
I wonder if the Pirates could make a play at one of these guys at some point next season. If Hosmer’s production keeps up, he should be in the major’s by June/July. It would be my assumption they wouldn’t want to DH either capable young talent.
I’m guessing Butler is more attainable, as his power isn’t where it was last season (Despite the OPS only being 10 points down… shhhh, don’t tell Dayton).
It would still take a BIG deal to get Butler, but maybe we have what it takes.
Hear me out: Rudy Owens, Starling Marte, and a buy-low throw in like Charlie Morton for Billy Butler.
Always tough giving up two top organizational prospects, but IMO Butler’s worth it. Only 24 years old, career OPS already above .800, and still a ton of upside. I’d even consider Morris/Marte, but Butler has already been in the league 3 plus years, so I’d imagine he’s FA eligible within 2-3 years.
Morris would be off the table, IMO for an arb-eligible power bat. The team needs frontline pitching too much. Same with Jameson Taillon.
Without those two top prospects in discussion, I wonder if they could add. The Pirates need a productive RF and 1B/3B for contention along with the pitching, and it’s hard to see that in the minors except for maybe Starling Marte in 2 years (who has the ceiling to put up high WAR due to great defense/BA and up to 12-15 HR power).
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 10, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I WANT BUTLER!
He would be a great addition at 1st which would lead to a possible platoon with Thrilledge/GFJ.
Butler will also be entering arbitration after the season so I expect he’ll be paid handsomely but look at it this way. That same $ will be paid to Cutch, Pedro, and Tabata in a few years so why not pay that same amount of $ for someone who fit right in to the middle of the order. Also Doumit and Duke are pretty much deadweight so use that same amount to acquire a solid pitcher to go with Maholm, Ohlendorf, and McDonald
I’d say you hafta trade Hanrahan to acquire Butler (KC has a thing for back end fireball relievers like Farnsworth) and also maybe a Owens and throw in a Hague.
This has to be top priority if they want to improve next season.
by BadAndy on Aug 10, 2010 10:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You probably don't
Butler is Doumitesque as a first baseman. But this points out the next phase for both teams. Lots of talent in the minors does not mean the makings of a good team in the majors. The Royals, for example, have at least four players whose position is really first base: Butler, Ka’aihue, Moustakas, and Hosmer. Turning those players into ones who can genuinely help the team takes another set of skills and information entirely.
Viva Clemente!
Butler hasn’t been Doumitesqe this year (neutral UZR, -1 plus-minus. Since he’s young that might be real improvement. Garrett Jones hasn’t exactly flashed the leather at first, either.
If everyone mashes, then a tall athletic guy like Hosmer will take to the outfield, with the results being anything from neutral to Jason Bay-esqe. Should still be valuable with a good bat.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 10, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Dream Minor League Season
If we compare ourselves to the Royals minor leaguers of this season, we’re obviously going to be dissapointed. But injuries aside, it is a bit of a bummer we haven’t had anyone really breakout into that top echelon this season.
But I’ll take the caryover that Alvarez/Tabata/Walker have showed in their brief MLB career so far over top 50 prospect status anyday. All three are far from sure things, but the early returns are encouraging.
And that’s really what it comes down to, translating any minor league success at the big league level, which has happened few and far between in Moore’s reign as GM (Alex Gordon being the prime example).
Again, I don’t really care if guys aren’t putting up amazing numbers at the MiL levels, as long as they are prepared for the Majors when it comes to that.
But I really wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the HS pitchers from last years draft breakout next year ala Rudy Owens of last year (although it wouldn’t be as big of a surprise).
by Maxwell.C on Aug 10, 2010 9:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
What’s interesting to me is how aggressive the Royals have been with Montgomery and Lamb. The equivalence for the Pirates would be seeing two out of ZVR, Cain, Dodson, Pounders, etc. reach AA next year. I don’t see this management team doing that, though hopefully they will at least reach A+.
I don’t know if it’s different philosophies of whether both teams would say that it just depends on the player. But what’s a better long-term strategy? One school of thought is that because pitchers are so prone to injuries, the quicker you get them throwing meaningful pitches in the majors, the more you get out of your investment in them. Of course the other school of thought is that you need to be patient with their development before exposing them to the stress of the majors (and I think Porcello may be an interesting case study).
I've always leaned more on the aggresive side with top pitchers..
Especially the uber-prospects loaded with talent. To me, you get these guys up as quickly as possible and let them loose. I don’t see much development sense in keeping a Madison Bumgarner in the minors when he can clearly help the ML-team win now.
However, when you’re dealing with 99% of other pitching prospects, err on the side of caution. Case in point? Brad Lincoln. If a guy with average/slightly above average stuff isn’t totally ready in the minors, there’s a good bet he’ll get eaten alive in the majors.
Royals 2010 = Pirates 2012?
Charlie, I like your comparison here. However, I believe the Pirates are a few years behind the Royals in terms of the consistent pipeline of talent. After the signing period this year, only 3 drafts will have been completed with the new management team (and new draft budget/philosophy). Moore has had a few more seasons to line up the talent, so obviously they are going to look better across the board. The big question is the one you alluded to — will the Royals/Moore (and the Pirates/NH) be able to transition to turning minor league talent and depth into major league wins. We shall see.
Another less interesting point—Tabata and Moustakas are essentially the same age (born a month apart in 1988). NH’s trade for Tabata somewhat makes up for not getting a top prospect in the 2007 draft.
One other thing worth keeping in mind:
Moustakas is effectively an inherited prospect, in that he was picked before Huntington took over as our GM. It’s not NH’s fault that Littlefield left him Moskos instead of a guy who could be a core piece on a good team.
You mean Moskos is an inherited prospect, not Moustakas..
Since we’re bringing up 2007, guys Littlefield passed on: Wieters, LaPorta, Bumgarner, Aumont, Heyward, Dominguez, and Arencibia.
Having said that, the Indians took Beau Mills 13th in that draft. Mills is 23 and not exactly lighting up AA right now. Of course, NH wasn’t running the show in Cleveland, but I’m assuming he did have a say in the draft.
No, I meant Moustakas.
Since we’re comparing their “rebuilt” system to our “rebuilt” system, I think it’s relevant that Dayton Moore was in charge of the Royals for one more draft than Huntington was in charge of us. For Huntington to have Moustakas (or an equivalent guy from the 2007 draft), he would’ve had to have inherited that guy from Littlefield. And since Ed Creech couldn’t draft for shit, that wasn’t going to happen.
I tend to read Sickles blog alot.
And there’s a lot of talk that Moustakas can only hit at his home field, and that he’s been pretty much terrible elsewhere. That might be a concern.
I would also like to point out
That prospecting seems to go in trends, and this year everybody is loving the Braves 4-5 pitchers and the Royals system. I asked why Dustin Ackley is considered to be so much better than Jose Tabata not long ago, and I was borderline trashed for saying it. However, the ages are comparable, Tabata was destroying AAA ball while Ackley was meh in AA. Tabata has more speed, possibly more power, and will hit over .300 many times in my opinion. I’m not too worried about prospect rankings, because it’s almost a guarantee that some of these Royals will regress in the future.
"why Dustin Ackley is considered to be so much better than Jose Tabata"
Much better pitch recognition, much better plate discipline, more projected long-term defensive value (as Tabata fills out and loses the ability to play CF). Also a rep for better contact ability – he hasn’t shown much of it this year, but a guy’s first half-season as a pro doesn’t necessarily tell the tale there.
Tabata has more speed now, but doesn’t project to keep much of it as he ages. It’s possible that he’ll have more power, but it’s possible that he won’t, either (and if you made me guess, I’d take the latter, given his GB tendencies).
Tabata is a very good prospect (and a relatively solid MLB’er even now), but Ackley is probably better.
Because Tabata
looks like a guy who will hit .310-.320 avg. and .360-.370 OBP with 10-12 HR’s and 30 SB’s as a plus defender in LF or a solid defender in CF. Ackley looks like a .330-.340 guy with .400 OBP and 15-20 HR’s (if his power develops) and 30-40 SB’s playing 2B.
It’s fairly close, but Ackley has a definitive edge.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know enough to argue.
My point is, your projections for each look fairly similar (and they are only projections) yet Ackley is quite possibly a top 5 MLB prospect while Tabata wouldn’t/didn’t crack most peoples’ top 100. Prospects are trendy.
had the Pirates been drafted 2nd
They woulda took Ackley. I like Sanchez and it was really tragic what happened with the jaw and all but Ackley would’ve been a very intriguing prospect for the Pirates.
by BadAndy on Aug 10, 2010 10:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Basically
Tabata will probably put up triple slash lines of .310/.365/.415 which are his numbers right now boosted a little bit. Even if you boosted them more and went high (especially on slugging) .315/.375/.440 = .815 OPS (.780 in the first scenario) playing plus defense at a corner spot. That’s a very good and useful player, especially if he can steal 30 SB.
Ackley (who’s actually older by about 6 month) reasonable ceiling (which I think the .315/.375/.440 triple slash is Tabata’s) is more like .335/.405/.475 = .880 OPS and that’s while stealing 30-40 bases and playing average D at 2B. For comparison, Chase Utley’s career OPS at 2B is .898 while only stealing more than 20 bases once.
Tabata’s triple slash looks like Chris Coghlan’s triple slash his rookie season albeit with the benefit of ~20 sbs.
Basically Ackley is a safe bet to provide better D, better contact ability, better OBP ability, and show a bit more power and speed on the basepaths than Tabata. While that doesn’t seem like much, that’s what could make Ackley truly great. Above average in most facets of the game with elite contact and OBP skills.
(Also I would note that I wouldn’t be surprised if Ackley went out and hit .360 or .370 a few times. I don’t see Tabata doing that.)
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
"Tabata will probably put up triple slash lines of .310/.365/.415"
I am curious as to how you reach this conclusion projecting very little growth for Tabata as his career progresses. It is very unusual for a 21 Y.O. to post an OPS+ over 100 as Tabata is now doing and those that do often become stars. I think the only Pirates to do it in, say, 300 PAs or more over the last 70 years,or so were Clemente, Bonds and Hebner though there could be others.
I am not saying I disagree but I don’t understand how you come up with that line. At the very least the “probably” seems a bit strong.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 10, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
There's some bold predicting in that post.
I’ll say again I’m still learning when it comes to talking about prospects, and there are undoubtedly holes in my knowledge, but you seem to be taking things to extremes with regards to both players here.
You’re basically predicting that Ackley will be in the Chase Utley range, if not better, throughout his major league career, and that seems like a fallacy to me. Utley is hitting 30+ bombs in the majors, Ackley has 4 in the upper minors this season. You predict average defense, while I’ve read many times that Ackley will end up in CF even though he’s very athletic. You see him stealing 30-40 bases, but I see him with a total of 8 this year, none in AAA.
Tabata seems like the better bet to post superior HR and SB totals, and he’s already quite good in the outfield to the naked eye, while Ackley is currently learning 2b and still rough around the edges (16 errors).
You may be right that Ackley is the better prospect, but I can’t sit here and predict .360 and .370 seasons out of Ackley as comfortably as you can, nor can I confidently think he’ll post the SB and power numbers you suggest.
That seems about right for Ackley. Future outfielder with limited arm strength (because of injuries in college at North Carolina IIRC), not much power and speed. Can’t find fault with the hit tool and plate discipline, though. Probably around a B+ guy.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 10, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree more w/ you. The Utley stuff is premature.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 10, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I said
reasonable ceiling. I didn’t say he’d get there. Also, I never said Ackley was Utley. I said their OPS could be similar. Obviously Ackley’s will be more OBP driven while Utley “slugs” very well.
My point is in the overall package I see Ackley as a top 3 2B in the entire majors starting in about 2-3 years and for the next 3-4 years.
Tabata I see as an above average or borderline “great” corner outfielder taking into the account the entire package. A top 17-25 guy if you take into account all corner guys or a top 8-12 guy if you take into account only LFs
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Tabata sounds like Carl Crawford with some speed/slugging traded in for higher BA/OBP. I can live with that as Tabata could still be a 30-40 2B 15-20 HR guy in a few years.
10-15 hr with 40ish doubles seems more likely to me. and i’d gladly take that, especially if he retains his speed. but you never know, either way it’s nice to have a handful of young players with real upside.
I can agree wit dat.
I love Tabata. Always have. Look back in some of my fanposts if you don’t believe me, lol.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
John Lamb
Kin to the Pirates pitcher of the same name of the early ’70s?
To echo
other posters.
This is a combination of two things. Luck and drafting high schoolers. Our previous two draft picks were college guys, one who has already graduated. Also, everyone of their big names have had a great year. Plus, if you take our top prospects “left” and add Cutch, Walker, Tabata, and Alvarez (and Lincoln) we look better than the Royals. Outside of Grenkie (who may not be part of the movement either) the Royals have… Alex Gordon? and Billy Bulter.
Compare
McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, Morris, Locke, Sanchez, Taillon, Allie.
Butler, Gordon, Myers, Lamb, Montgomery, Hosmer, Moustakas, and Colon
It’s pretty close. Especially considering that a few of the Royals guys are still in the low minors.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions
This is a combination of two things. Luck and drafting high schoolers.
Well, maybe also the Royals talent evaluation and player development is superior, but it’s too early to tell overall.
Compare
McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, Morris, Locke, Sanchez, Taillon, Allie.
Butler, Gordon, Myers, Lamb, Montgomery, Hosmer, Moustakas, and Colon
The big drop-off from the KC list is around the Lincoln, Locke, Sanchez Allie (for now) area. Also, some of these guys (especially Moustakas) have better upside than Walker/Tabata/Morris, although producing already at the highest level is nice. Still, the Pirates have enough low-level upside pitching prospects that one or two of them could raise his status to the Lamb level.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 10, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree in theory with the first part
about better talent evaluation and player development. It is possible, but I’m gonna chalk it up to luck. As you can see, 3 of the 5 players mentioned were 1st round picks. The other 2 were top 5 round picks. They were all also high school guys. These guys weren’t players who flew under the radar the Royals gobbled up. They were pedigree guys who all happened to be high schoolers over the last few years (so all are still around) that somehow all managed to have breakout seasons.
While obviously the Royals have to be lauded for making these picks and developing them well so far, a few will fall off and bust or flameout, while guys in our system or any other system who are having a “bad year” will end up as the more productive MLers. While I would love to be in the Royals shoes on the MIL level, by the end of next year if two of these guys get injured, one doesn’t do well at all, one is average, and two others continue to do well the picture is much different.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
That almost sounds like...
you expect some of the Royals will flame out or get hurt…but none of the Pirates will. Do you believe in the Easter Bunny, too? EVERY team has high draft picks that get hurt and/or flame out.
And let’s at least get Taillon and Allie signed first, before they get put in the 2012 starting rotation.
Where did I ever say
the Pirates won’t have flameouts or injuries?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I never accused you of SAYING it.
You agreed that it appears that KC had the better talent evaluation and player development, or that they were lucky, when compared to the Pirates organization.
Read your second para of your 109 CDT entry again. You state that the Royals should be lauded…but a few will fall off or flame out or get injured…and that would present a different picture. If the Pirates have anything remotely close to that same failure/injury rate…which is likely…the Royals would still be above the Pirates. The only way it would make a large difference is if the Royals had plenty of injuries/failures…while the Pirates have next to none.
And the Pirates don’t exactly have a sterling record when it comes to diagnosing or preventing injuries. Nor do they have many players at a high enough level to properly discern whether the current management’s plan of player development is the proper one.
Fair enough
If the Pirates have anything remotely close to that same failure/injury rate…which is likely…the Royals would still be above the Pirates. The only way it would make a large difference is if the Royals had plenty of injuries/failures…while the Pirates have next to none.
I disagree. If you just look at minor league talent, yes they would be ahead even though again, they’ve seen no major injuries this year. We’ve seen Marte and Sanchez both go down, along with guy who looked to be a fast riser in Holt (not saying he was top 100 overall, but maybe top 10 in our system). Ultimately though, you have to look at major league talent as well. At the major league level we have Cutch, Alvarez, Walker, and Tabata compared to Gordon and Butler.
The overall young talent is comparable, except in this case all of their prospects have exploded while ours haven’t, somewhat due to injuries.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Last I looked...
we were talking about the minor leaguers…not the major leagues. In other words, Cutch, Walker, Alvarez, Tabata, Lincoln, Butler, Gordon should not be part of the discussion. You’ve got 2 Pirates that haven’t even signed yet (Allie and Taillon).
So it boils down to
Pirates…Morris, Locke and Sanchez.
Royals…Myers, Lamb, Montgomery, Hosmer, Moustakos and Colon.
Or better yet…since the thought is to just compare those that NH/FC have had power over…and not to blame them for what Littlefield did, let’s go with those drafted and signed since 2008 draft that you mentioned. I will even give you Alvarez.
Pirates…Alvarez and Sanchez. Remember Morris and Locke were traded for.
Royals…Myers, Lamb, Montgomery, Hosmer and Colon.
Pirates drafting all of a sudden doesn’t look nearly as hot. Especially since all of the above mentioned Royals are actually getting it done ON the field.
At this point what do we play for...
… wins or Rendon. This difference to me between last and second to last is absolutely nill, and if being the worst record nets Rendon then I take it.
Rendon at 3rd, Pedro 1st, GJ/Milledge in RF… Let’s play for the impact bat.
You always play for wins.
It’s the only honorable thing to do.
Now, if you don’t happen to get them, so be it. But you need to make a good-faith effort.
We play
to win. Ethically though, I think you can play “lesser” younger or fringe potential guys to see who sticks (Bowker, Presley, Lincoln, Morton etc.) which could result in more losses, but you can’t tell your guys to throw games.
That being said, I’m rooting for losses period. Criticize me all your want but I don’t believe in this “learning how to win thing.” I think if we win only a dozen games the rest of the way won’t make any difference in our future prospects as compared to going .500. The only difference is where we will get to draft.
Seattle, Baltimore, and Zona all winning last night was awesome.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
each of the last 2 years
i rooted for losses… this year is different though… i dont think there’s necessarily a huge jump between 1 and 5 in next years draft… there is a jump, but its not like the last 2 years… and Rendon is further hurting an already hurt foot
Well, sure.
If we have a valid reason for wanting to take a look at players in order to make roster decisions for 2011, that’s not the same as outright dumping games.
With some of the lineups JR has put out there this season...
I’d question how honorable the Pirates manager/FO are. As often as Church, Clement, Iwamura and Morton were put out there (among others), it did not appear that winning was foremost in their minds.
I'm not rooting for losses
but I will root that in 3 years we don’t have either GJ/Milledge in RF. I’d also be pretty happy with Purke/Cole to slot next to Taillon/Morris/Owens/Macdonald/Locke

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