How Should The Pirates Divide Time At The Corners?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 13, 2010 3:01 AM EDT
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PrintI'll begin here with a couple of presuppositions:
1) Pedro Alvarez is the starter at third, and Jose Tabata gets one of the corner outfield spots. That leaves two spots (first and a corner outfield spot) to discuss.
2) The Pirates have a variety of options to fill those two spots, and they shouldn't waste their time by playing Ryan Doumit there. (And they shouldn't have been playing Ryan Church there either.)
I think I and most of the folks who are regulars in the comments can probably agree on those two points. The problem is that the talents who are left to play first and the outfield are interesting but ultimately marginal. We can argue really passionately for Lastings Milledge one month, and then check back the next month and find he's hitting .264/.289/.333 after the break. Whoops! This doesn't mean that Milledge shouldn't be playing, and clearly he's a more interesting option than Doumit is, simply because he does have a chance of providing some future value. But he hasn't exactly seized a job, and most of the other players who might have claimed time are like him - it isn't that they're worthless, but they're marginal.
At this point, I think it makes a lot of sense to start Jeff Clement at first against a fair number of righties, with Garrett Jones in the outfield. Milledge can play against lefties and pick up occasional starts against righties. It would ultimately be good if Milledge could play every day against righties so that he could get better at hitting them, and certainly that would be smarter than playing Ryan Doumit in the outfield, but I'm no longer sure Milledge should get that luxury. Clement played well enough at Indianapolis to warrant another look at the major league level, and this might be one of the last clear shots he gets at one.
The problem is John Bowker. Bowker is very probably a marginal player, but he posted a .982 OPS at Fresno this year and currently has a 1.097 OPS at Indianapolis. Like Jones and Clement, Bowker is a lefty, so it's really tough to accommodate them all. Also, Clement and Bowker will be out of options next year, so there's a limited amount of time to learn anything about them. The only real way to find space on the roster for Bowker right now would be to send down Clement (or maybe to get rid of Delwyn Young, who's also out of options next year). So it makes sense to keep Bowker in Indianapolis until rosters expand in September, and see a bit more of Clement until then in order to clarify the battle between Clement and Bowker next year in Spring Training. In September, I wouldn't mind if there were situations where both Clement and Bowker started (at first and in the outfield, respectively) and Jones took a breather.
It probably isn't a life-or-death situation either way, but it is irritating to see Doumit and Young start in the outfield against righties when there are all these problems to resolve.
Thoughts?
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And then there's Moss....
What do we do with him? I guess he might make nice trade bait, if he’s not in the RF picture, but ignoring him in favor of Clement, Bowker, et al, is a mistake, IMHO.
yea exactly Moss and Bowker both deserve another shot
its going to be a interesting rest of the season and off season thats for sure.
As you have correctly argued before...
Time is an organizational resource and should be used wisely. Thus, I agree that spending that resource on Doumit and Young at this point is a waste of that resource. Instead, play anybody that might have some future usefulness.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
I wouldn't have minded
dealing Garrett Jones at the deadline. I mean I have no way of knowing what he could bring back, but if the offer was right I would have pulled the trigger.
Please no more Doumit
I still think Jones and Doumit will be dealt this offseason
for a decent starting pitcher, Neal will pull something off lol
this could be true
if clement has a hot september. Jones is, IMO, our only proven 1B option. With full control over him for he next 4 years, we can’t trade him unless there’s a viable option at first to replace him
Well
If we end up with the first pick and Rendon has a clean bill of health, Alvarez would be our long term option at 1st. I still think Alvarez will end up there anyway eventually (talking years here) if we don’t end up with Rendon. But we should never really have to worry about having a viable 1B option.
Easy to say
But how many years before LaRoche arrived did we have jack shit at 1B? Pretty much for the 8 years after Kevin Young’s knees went.
The thing is, anyone with a decent bat can be an acceptable 1B. But you need that guy with a decent bat. I don’t think there’s anyone in AA or AAA whose bat plays at 1B, and I cant think of anyone in A+ either, but could be wrong about that.
And FA 1Bs who are actually worthwhile are not cheap. Jones is a bit subpar, but he’s cheap; I’d hate to pay $5M for a guy who’s just a few notches better. And I’d hate to have to depend on Clement or Bowkers sticking.
by JRoth95 on Aug 13, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thats why
trading him would have been dependant on the return. I’m ok with depending on Clement or Bowker for this year (and heck maybe next year as well the way the team is shaping up). We may be at least another year from winning. As I said if we end up with Rendon, Alvarez moves to 1b.
Despite what Littlefield's incompetence would lead you to believe...
…it really isn’t all that hard to find a tolerable starting 1B.
True enough
Heck, Daryl Ward’s first season was perfectly tolerable (WAR says his second was better, but that’s driven by a defensive value I’m not sure I buy – his bat was worse). My main gripe is paying money for a guy who’s not a significant upgrade over Jones. I can’t see us spending 8 figures for a 1B in 2011, but that’s what it would take to be worth any sort of visible improvement over Jones.
IOW, Jones is worth 1.5-2 WAR for $400k. For 1 additional WAR you’re looking at guys like Konerko, Fielder, Texeira… pricey guys. The only guys worth more WAR than Jones who aren’t getting paid 20X more than Jones are other guys in their first few years, who of course are not available as FAs.
Basically, the only way the Pirates get more value out of 1B without paying a shit-ton of money is to get lucky with a retread – but of course, retreads also fail spectacularly. You could pay $1M to Mike Jacobs for negative WAR.
And we have one of those tolerable 1st basemen
in Jones in our pockets. We have the luxury (using that term loosely) of sticking Jones’ bat in right while working Clement in at 1st for the rest of the year. If they give Clement a try at first and it’s clear he’s not going to work, we still have Jones to plug in, with other reasonable RF options. We trade jones and Clement doesn’t work, we’re in a bit of a pickle.
But to be clear
I’ve long been open to a trade of Jones for good value. But I don’t favor trading him just to move him at peak value, and certainly not to clear roster space for Clement, Pearce, or Doumit (or Andy!) as everyday 1Bs.
When
do you think Jones will be at peak value is the question then I guess. I dont think anyone would move him just to clear a spot for those players you mentioned. Those players would just be filling in at the role. Its tough to determine his value at this point, at least as far as what he could bring back in a trade.
I mean "peak"
Mostly in the sense of “before he plummets.” If he doesn’t turn into a pumpkin, then his peak trading value is probably within the next 11 months – still young enough to project a couple more years of productivity, still super-cheap. By 2012 (again, assuming that he plays at roughly this level for at least 2-3 more years), other teams will be wary of his impending age-related decline, plus his 2009 will have faded almost entirely.
As far as the Pirates are concerned, I think he’s worth having on his own terms at least through 2012 – he’s cheap all those years, and he’s insurance against anyone else you come up with for 1B and RF. Arbitration in 2013 has entirely to do with what your other options are.
Obviously, all bets are off if he picks up his game a notch, but I think his 2010 is about his general level for the next couple years.
Another way to look at it
Rather than waiting for Jones’ peak value it might be more important to know what teams need first basemen. In particular, I am talking about teams with bad GMs. Also, what do we want in return is a good question. I am still at the point where I think the Pirates aren’t good enough to try to put pieces around the talent. I think we are still in the talent acquisition phase of a rebuild. So, I would not hesitate to make a deal that would net us a return comparable to the McLouth and Nady deals. Thoughts?
Agreed about Doumit, it is a waste giving him playing time.
I don’t care if it is bad resource management, change for the sake of change is a good thing in this instance, IMO.
They have to find out what they have...
and what they dont…
They know what they have in Doumit…they really need to give as much time they can to Milledge and Clement.
I think they should bring up Bowker and Moss when rosters expand for the same reasons – what can they bring?
Play those players who could be future regulars at the expense of veterans who have proven what they are and are not capable of…
I'm sure I'm in a minority ...
But Lastings looks like a #4 or platoon player. That’s nice. Keep him. But we don’t need to give him 200 at bats the rest of the year. I just don’t think he’s ever going to be the 20-20 guy we hoped.
Second, I’d give as much time to Moss, Bowker, Clement, You are going to have to decide if any of them are worth a roster spot. They’ve all had AAA success. They may be AAAA players.
But I’d try to get them all MLB at bats.
Finally, GJ is a nice 20 HR, 90 RBI, .270 hitter. He could use a few days off while the team evalutes Moss, Bowker, Clement.
I’m not saying that any one should play every day. But I would get them some real at bats during the final six weeks.
Delwyn Young absolutely, 100% must be cut loose
DY’s a decent player, and actually a good PH, but the fact is that he won’t be signed next season, the W/L doesn’t mean anything the rest of this season, and we have options like Bowker, Clement, and Moss that need any playing time DY might take away.
Even if DY only gets one start a week and a handful of PH at-bats a week, that’s still wasted playing time in the sense that he’s 99% not going to be on this Pirates team next year.
This is my ideal scenario: 1. Cut DY 2. Bring Bowker up 3. Start Jones 3-4 times a week between RF/1B 4. Clement AT LEAST 1 start a week at 1B and majority of PH at-bats 5. Bowker/Milledge split remaining time in RF..
I don't really disagree
I’ve said before that I don’t have a good sense of DY’s arb value, but he’s surely not worth $1M to this team. NH presumably knows what his arb value will look like, and should cut him now if he’s planning no non-tendering him. It’s a shame to cut a player for no return, but in this case the return is evaluation time.
Hell, cut DY now and maybe he catches onto someone’s postseason roster as a PH, which would be a nice outcome for the kid.
With regard to Doumit..
I’d actually consider giving him up to 2 starts a week catching. I’m curious to see if there would be a productivity increase in both Snyder and Doumit behind the plate and hitting wise if they were splitting time.
Obviously Snyder should be playing the majority of the time, but if Doumit was catching say… 1 game a week, then 2 the next week, then 1 and an alternating cycle like that… Might be a decent compromise that could also keep him from pirating RF and 1B when we have lesser known options that need figured out..
I think we’re deluding ourselves if we still think we don’t know Milledge’s capabilities… We don’t have to find out anything about him because we know what there is to know… let’s go to the numbers:
with NYM: .257/.326/.414/.723 (391 PA)
with WAS: .263/.326/.391/.717 (613 PA)
with PIT: .280/.333/.384/.717 (608 PA)
with roughly three years worth of PT, Milledge’s numbers have remained remarkably consistent… at this point, I’m not sure how reasonable it is to expect him to be much more than what he’s shown thus far… he’s had his chance, and this is what he’s done… at this point, I’m not sure he should get any more PT than delwyn young…
clement, jones, bowker and maybe brandon moss can split 1B/RF up for the rest of the year and that’s fine with me… heck, I know it’s heresy, but I don’t think giving tabata and cutch a day off every week would be the worst thing… shouldn’t harm their development substantially and would give the pirates ~ 2 weeks of AB to find out what they have in these other guys… but not young, not doumit, not laroche and not milledge… they’re all known quantities…
by Captain Easychord on Aug 13, 2010 9:29 AM EDT reply actions
Basically agree
But a couple things to add:
Giving Tabata a day off a week won’t harm him; Cutch seems overdue for some time off. That opens 2 days a week for Milledge to play in LF. Give him 1 day in RF, and I think that’s all the playing time he needs (this year). So now you’ve got 5 or 6 RF games a week to distribute. Sit Jones 1 day a week, and that leaves 10 or 12 RF/1B games a week for him, Clement, and Doumit (prior to Sept).
I understand your position on Doumit, and I’ve argued with Vlad about his value, but I don’t think it’s irrational to get him some playing time to salvage some value out of him. Between now and Sept 1, it would be reasonable for him to basically split the non-Jones time with Clement – 4 starts apiece. If Doumit hits like a monster and establishes some degree of competence/comfort in RF (plus he gets at least a start a week behind the plate), then there’s enough there to point to in a trade. If Doumit doesn’t hit, then he doesn’t play in September except as #2 catcher and PH.
If Lastings continues not to hit, I think he gets even less playing time in September – basically his 2 days/week in LF. Although maybe Moss gets some of those as well.
Come September, I think you need to pull Jones mid-game in blowouts. Maybe that’s not a great way to give playing time to Clement or Bowkers, but 2 late-game PAs as a fielder is better than a single PH appearance.
And then my big caveat to all this: partial playing time, especially in September, is a terrible measure for marginal players. Look at how poorly Walker did last year – several of you insisted that it was an accurate gauge of his abilities, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a rookie (who may or may not be a legit major leaguer) to be able to produce in scattered starts or PH appearances the first time he’s up. Fortunately, all of the guys we’re talking about have at least some MLB time, so we’re not talking about pure rookie jitters, but still: other than Moss, none of these guys have had more than a month or two of regular MLB play, and irregular play in September will be an unrepresentative sample at best.
JRoth
Like the post: My only difference would be my feelings on Walker. I didn’t base those on September. I based them on an average minor league career.
Yeah, I know that wasn’t the only evidence, but IMO it should have been basically thrown out as meaningless. No one thought he was ready for the bigs, but he was thrown out there, more or less at random, and looked terrible. As experience has borne out, that wasn’t predictive of what he could do when he was ready and with regular playing time.
Anyway.
I think it’s reasonable to assume the Jones is a legitimate starter. He’s certainly not your ideal #4 hitter, but based on where we stand now, he’s a perfectly decent guy to have in the starting line-up. If you make that assumption, you cannot mess with his playing time. I agree that they need to see what they have, but benching him 2 or 3 times a week isn’t the right play. A few days of rest isn’t an issue for me, but if you do that, you shouldn’t start Andy at 1b, you should play Clement there to get him ABs.
The real problem is there are just SO many guys, you can’t really get anything resembling full time ABs for them. We all know what happened with Steve Pearce when he wasn’t playing that much. I think for this year, you have to look at Doumit and Clement on a more regular basis. Bowker can wait. Simply giving guys 2 starts a week and PH appearances is just not enough to get a real read on their ability. And I think we all know that September stats are not to be trusted (see Laroche, Andy).
I think
The only reason Andy got that start was that it was a lefty pitcher and Jones needed that day off. It wasn’t an effort to fit LaRoche into the overcrowded mix at 1B.
BTW, should Pedro get any days off? Has he even had any? Maybe back in his first month, when he was pressing, but I don’t think he’s sat since the ASG. It wouldn’t kill him to sit 2-3 games between now and the end of the year. I don’t think playing time for Andy is important, but it’s surely better for him to get it at 3B than at 1B.
JR...
makes it sound like LaRoche at 1B is NOT a one time deal. He’s been quoted as saying with Jones and LaRoche at 1B, it will be tough to find AB for Clement.
LaRoche represents a REDUCTION in power at a corner position. This team needs more than one or two guys that hit two and three run HRs.
Power does not matter...
…except insofar as it leads to runs. We want the guy with the most total offensive value – even if he’s not a “power hitter”.
Good
There really isn’t any reasonable case for playing Clement over LaRoche, barring an injury or something of that sort.
That's silly
You’re all about finding playing time for Doumit, but you can’t imagine why we’d play Clement – whom we need to make a roster decision about – over LaRoche, who is never, ever going to be a starting 1B?
I think that at this point...
…they should have already seen enough from Clement in order to make the necessary decision. So giving him additional PT does not get you anything of value.
Barring a trade, LaRoche is probably our primary non-SS UT IF next year. So knowing whether he can play 1B provides some measure of value, and giving him 1B playing time for the next month-and-change gives you a few extra shots at getting his bat to wake up.
Then why is he here at all?
Seriously, you’re completely dismissing a guy with a MiLB OPS of .867 (and BB/K of 0.54) on fewer than 400 ML PAs. That’s your right, but it’s silly to have him on the roster if you think getting Andy LaRoche more reps at 1B is more critical than evaluating Clement.
I'm not relying all that heavily on the ML PAs.
I’m also looking at his record at AAA, which is decent but not significantly better than that of a dozen guys who are minor league FAs every year, and hasn’t shown much skill growth in the seasons he’s spent at that level. If you took one of his AAA seasons, and you swapped it out for one of Tagg Bozied’s, would you really notice a difference?
In his ML career thus far, Clement has consistently been in the low 70% range as far as contact rate is concerned, which is a tough way to live. It limits you to a low BA, which when coupled with a pedestrian-at-best walk rate means that you aren’t going to be getting on base much. It’s not impossible to succeed with a contact rate that low – Adam Dunn has wandered between 68% and 75% for his whole career, but Dunn has much better power and much better pitch recognition and plate discipline than Clement does.
I agree that the AAA repetition is uninspiring
Which is why I want to see him get MLB reps. It’s time to fish or cut bait, and we’re not getting any more data about him either on the bench or if he spends another day at Indy. 100 more PAs won’t tell us anything definitive, but if they look just like his first 150 PAs this year, then you can cut him without a backward glance.
"It’s time to fish or cut bait"
I agree. I think it’s pretty evidently time to cut bait. Which is why I don’t think he needs ML PT over anyone with a reasonable chance of being on the roster next year.
that doesn't sound right at all
there’s every reason to play Clement over Andy, as far as I m concerned… he has power, as he’s already shown, and is not necessarily much worse than LaRoche at the plate, if at all. Also, as you said later, for all practical purposes, LaRoche is the UT IF next year, so we know one roster decision already. We still need to figure out Clement.
by BurgherKing on Aug 13, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Lots of guys have power.
Brad Eldred had as much power as anybody in the game today. He was still a crappy MLB hitter because he didn’t have the other skills necessary to exploit that power. Clement is in kind of the same boat.
LaRoche is the UT IF next year, but he’s not necessarily ONLY the UT IF next year. He’s also the Plan B behind two guys currently in their first year as ML starters, and as such substantial collapse risks. It would be nice to know what to expect if we ended up needing to break the glass and put him in a more prominent role.
Developing a UT IF and Plan B corner (LaRoche)...
makes sense if you are looking for a championship run next year but the Bucs are a long way from that. They need to get Boker and Clement and even Moss the playing time at the ML level NOW to see if their additional time in the minors translates into any success in the majors. Otherwise just cut them all if we’re throwing in the towel on them. No one is making the case that LaRoche will be the day in and day starting ANYTHING on a contender. We need to develop front line players, not reserves.
Also, if we’re going on a championship run and Pedro gets hurt for 6 weeks, we’re looking to trade for a serviceable 3B so we don’t have to plug in a .650 OPS guy for any length of time. That’s why LaRoche doesn’t have any use anymore, at least on this team.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 13, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that cutting and towel-throwing...
…would make semse for Clement (and possibly also Moss), if the only alternative involves giving them large amounts of ML PT.
There’s a much higher chance of LaRoche being a starting anything for a contender than of Clement doing the same. Which is not to say that it’s a good chance… just better than Clement’s.
Yeah, I know
I guess I’m really just trying to tell myself that he doesn’t mean it. “Corner infielder” he called him. Gag.
Someone is going to need to explain this to me...
…because I don’t see the case for giving Clement playing time at the corners instead of Doumit.
Clement looks at this point like a guy with some ML-caliber skills, but also some crippling holes in his skill set. He didn’t hit well in his brief ML trial, and he hasn’t shown any signs of addressing his weaknesses at AAA. Sure, he’s hit for some power. We already knew he could do that. He’s also put up an 8/47 BB/K in 164 ML AB. I don’t care how much power you have – that’s not going to get it done in the majors. That’s a Brad Eldred line.
Doumit, meanwhile, needs reps to either establish himself as a trade commodity or to build the skill base necessary to be useful next year as a four-position reserve. You could try and count on him getting those in winter ball… but why take the chance? We know from experience that he can provide some value with his bat – why not put him in a situation where we might have a chance of extracting that value?
Might not be correct baseball strategy but..
I think the majority of us would just flat-out rather see Clement out there than Doumit. Yes, he’s flawed and has some serious holes in his game, but there’s always that chance something “clicks” and he figures it out.
Is it likely? Nope, but to those of us who have grown tired of Ryan Doumit, the slim chance that Clement figures it all out and becomes that big bat 1B we’ve been searching for is worth it.
Again, like I said.. Not very likely, and probably not the most logical choice when it comes to Risk/Reward, but I feel pretty confident that’s the opinion of the majority of us who’d rather see Clement getting more playing time than Doumit..
I think other teams
know what you’re getting in Doumit. There’s no hidden value to be extracted. I know I’ve seen enough over a long enough time line to effectively judge what he is capable of. As for some of the other players on this team? I can’t really make that assessment yet.
If even we don't know whether he can improve his 1B/OF defense to tolerable levels...
…then how can other teams know?
They might think that they know, and if they have a firm opinion at this point, it’s probably a negative one. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re right. I’d like to take a good long look and firmly collapse the waveform in one state or the other. If he can’t do it, we haven’t really lost anything and we can plan around him as a strict C for 2011. And if he can do it, then we’ve extracted additional value from him.
We've lost
playing time a Clement or Bowker could use to determine whether they are worth keeping. I just don’t see any team taking on Doumit unless they are planning on using him as a DH. Given his contract, I dont think his value will go much further either way at this point.
As I stated already...
…I don’t think we need additional playing time to determine whether Clement is worth keeping. And while it would be nice to take a look at Bowker, he’s not on the ML roster, and as such isn’t losing playing time to anybody.
Vlad
I think the Pirates have already decided that he’s not able to play 1b at a tolerable level.
If I’m betting, I’d say the chances of Clement because a useful platoon player are better than Doumit becoming an average fielding 1b.
My vote
is for getting both of them playing time – I don’t see it as zero sum at all. Especially since Doumit should be kept away from 1B.
The bottom line is that, either we find out now that Clement is worth keeping, or he’s gone forever prior to the Rule 5 (OK, he could get through waivers and come to ST as a NRI – you can’t assume that). And if you don’t plan to protect him, then you cut him now and bring up Bowkers. It doesn’t make any sense to keep Clement on the 25 man now but refuse to give him enough starts to show anything. In his MiLB career, his BB rate has been around 10%, and his BB/K has been around 1:2 or better. Surely you’re not going to attach greater meaning to 146 PAs this season?
His problem in the majors...
…has been recognizing and dealing with quality breaking stuff. Traditionally, that is a very tough skill to master against ML competition. And he just spent his last option year parked at AAA looking for high-80s fastballs to drive rather than working on fixing that weakness.
As such, I’m not optimistic about much additional future development from him, and I’d put him in back of our other internal 1B options (like Pearce, who did show some skill growth this year before getting hurt, and Bowker).
If Bowker were on the ML roster, I think it’d make sense to give him starts at 1B/RF. But he isn’t, so it’s kind of a moot point.
Vlad
You are assuming that minor league pitchers are throwing him high-80s heat.
I suspect that’s not the case.
I suspect they are throwing their best breaking balls to him.
Is he likely to become a useful MLB player? Probably not.
But I’d like Doumit be the backup catcher and spot start. I see almost zero chance in him doing well at 1b.
He may do slightly better in RF. But that’s just because of the low bar he’s set for himself at other positions.
The best breaking ball a AAA lifer has...
…isn’t all that good. That’s why he’s in AAA in the first place.
Check his PitchFX numbers in the majors. ML guys have been eating him up with breaking stuff. He’s only seeing fastballs 52% of the time – and with good reason.
Small sample ...
You have talked about a small sample.
Clearly, this sample is far too small to judge.
Are the results encouraging?
Nope.
But there is a reason to give him a final chance.
Second, I thought nearly all the pitchers in MLB played at AAA. He’s seeing decent, but not great, breaking stuff. And doing okay.
Will it translate to MLB?
I doubt it. But I also doubt Doumit will be an offensive and defensive force in RF or 1b.
We better hope his AAA line doesn't translate to MLB
It breaks down to something like a .280 OBP. That’s Eldred territory.
Do you think that the PitchFX description of what kind of pitches Clement is being thrown is somehow invalid? That it’s not an accurate representation of the “book” on him? Because unless that’s the case, I don’t see how a sample size-based objection is valid there.
As noted by others ...
That’s also NW territory. And he’s doing okay right now.
AAA stats are predictive. But they aren’t conclusive.
I’m talking about a small sample at the MLB level. If you judge him on that many at bats, then Barry Bonds sucked with his .223 average, I think, the first year.
Yes, it is an accurate representation of what he’s done so far. But that doesn’t mean he’s destined to suck.
I'm not judging him on his small sample at the MLB level.
I’m judging him on his small sample at the MLB level, his underwhelming performances in AAA the last few years, his age, and his readily-apparent weakness as far as breaking stuff is concerned.
Please re-read the part that I wrote about PitchFX. I was citing that data to show that ML pitchers have been throwing him a low percentage of fastballs, and that the percentage has steadily decreased as he’s spent more time in the majors. I wasn’t citing his weak performance when swinging at breaking stuff (though it has been weak) – just pointing out that everybody in the majors believes he struggles to hit anything with a bend or a wiggle, and that this belief shapes pitchers’ decisions when facing him. In that light, his AAA performance this year has been particularly disappointing to me, insofar as it represents a refusal to work on that phase of his game (or at least a lack of recognition that he needs improvement in that area).
Vlad
I read it. I get your point.
But I disagree that his minor league numbers are so bleak.
I also disagree that the number of at bats he’s had at the MLB level are enough of a sample to say that he doesn’t deserve a chance.
We are stuck with Doumit for one more year, like it or not.
On a horrible MLB team, I’d give Clement a few more weeks to show whether he can make it.
Again, I agree. Probably not. But I think there is a chance.
How do you know.....
(serious question) that he has “refus(ed) to work on that phase of his game?” Do you have minor league pitch data that demonstrates this? I just have no idea how you would come to that conclusion when he hit pretty well AAA while down there and then has had 10 major league at bats since he came up.
What analysis are you basing that on?
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Excellent points ...
I don’t see anything to support that Clement refused to work on his swing.
In fact, I thought I remembered reading in the Post-Gazette that he was doing just that. And when I searched there were many links to that effect, including:
He didn't "hit pretty well [in] AAA".
He put up a .335 OBP and a 8/47 BB/K.
If he did try and work on that phase of his game, and then put up numbers like those, he’s a total fumbling incompetent. When you work at something, you’re supposed to get better at it, not worse.
Again ...
You are assuming he’s only facing AAA lifers. He’s not.
Moreover, you need to look at comparable stats from some very successful MLB players who struggled over 500 or 600 at bats.
You can’t assume he’s a failure based on 400 at bats over a few seasons.
Is it the most likely outcome? Yes. Is it the only one? No.
There is a reason...
…that most people who are in AAA are in AAA. The level of competition there is lower than it is in MLB, and pitchers’ skills in all areas of the game are also lower. Striking out in a third of your times up against AAA-quality pitchers is not a positive indicator.
I was not aware that the above position would be controversial, and I’m having trouble understanding why you would consider it to be so.
I understand perfectly well that a few hundred ML PA are not necessarily conclusive evidence as to whether or not a player can hit. I do not understand why you seem to feel that I do not understand that fact, or why you believe that I am basing my position on Clement solely on his major league performance (particularly insofar as I have gone to some considerable pains to state that I am doing the opposite).
AAA
I’m just giving you a hard time, Vlad. It’s good-natured fun.
You are forgetting, though. Many AAA pitchers do make the majors.
It’s not like these are independent league guys.
As for the strikeouts, I agree. They are bad. But so were Mike Stanton’s. So were Pedro Alvarez’s.
I’m just saying: Vlad, open your mind to the possibility that Clement could still make it.
You and I agree. He probably won’t. But I’d like more at bats to determine what Clement is.
NH liked him enough to send millions to Seattle to see. If I had to choose between giving him a few at bats and giving Doumit a few, I’d give them to Clement.
I know what Doumit can do. I also know that he’s going to be with the team one more year unless the Pirates essentially buy out his contract to trade him. I also know that he’s not going to dramatically increase the Pirates’ wins this year. Why not let some of the guys you have to make tough calls on play?
Play Clement, Bowker and Moss
You know what you have in Jones. Playing him for another 6 weeks will not reveal anything more nor accelerate his development. Put Clement at 1B to see if the time in the minors did any good. Let Tabata spell Cutch in CF. Cutch is looking a little discouraged and run down. Like Jones you know what you got. Give Bowker and Moss their shots at the corner OF positions for the next six weeks. Milledge is the odd man out for now. He has not shown power, although his RISP is impressive, and his defense and base running have been below average. Doumit will not be part of a winning future so his playing time can only serve as a showcase for a trade to an AL team as a DH.
"his defense and base running have been below average"
Not according to the numbers. He’s grading out as a neutral-to-slight-positive defender.
Vlad, you dont watch baseball
only an uneducated bumkin would believe Milledge is above average in defense and base running.
I guess your life is reading garbage computer reports instead of watching and learning how the game is supposed to be played.
by Dan Jenkins on Aug 13, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
easy seabiscuit
he’s just quoting the numbers. we all know Lastings has room for improvement.
Hi there, big guy!
Love you too!
Anyone who watches baseball knows that it’s possible to look clueless in the field and still be a decent defender. Foot speed and reactions can make up for bad routes.
Exhibit A: Nyjer Morgan.
i was going to point out Nyjer Morgan too
but I d also add that defensive metrics are not nearly good enough or reliable yet, as vanslyke says below. Nor is the eye, but you’d have to admit that Milledge seems really really close to a huge gaffe in the field far too often for most people’s liking…
He plays like a puppy.
High energy, occasionally pees on the rug.
Still solid in the aggregate, though. For every time I’ve seen him catastrophically screw something up, I’ve seen him make some crazy sliding catch or running-into-the-wall catch or something along those lines.
I haven't really seen him catastrophically screw something up
But I prefer the solid player to the flashy one… I d rather a guy who makes all the routine plays and makes the occasional but rare flashy one to the one who turns every play into a semi-adventure… And the more I think about it, the less of a chance I think Lastings has of being more than a platoon player with the Pirates. If his bat could do a regular .820ish OPS thing, I d let him play everyday, but as of now, its hard to keep with him for much longer
....sabermetrics for defense are widely debated
there is no sabermetric that takes into effect accurately the impact errors or misjudging plays that result in runs. There is also no sabermetric that takes into account the impact on the amount of batted balls he takes to the helmet or how many trips to the DL he is projected to take.
Sometimes you have to evaluate a player based from the eye test composed of track record and everyday performance. The conception, regardless of sabermetrics, on Doumit was that his defense was suspect. All the sabermetrics in the world can tell us that he is neutral to slight positive, but as you watch him play everyday and see his body of work, it is a safe assumption to believe that he will not progress or even become serviceable with the glove based on his experience/results.
We do not have a body of work on Clement. If you are going to bring subjectivity into the mix about the Clement skill set of hitting the breaking ball, I am going to bring subjectivity into watching Doumit butcher RF/1B. That being said, give Clement 1.5 months to add to his body of work and evalutate his major league stats at the end of 2010. Doumit and Snyder can catch in tandam.
Well ...
the research on eyewitness testimony only applies to people you don’t know.
I think we all know Lastings.
But your point is a good one. That’s why the scouts and saber guys argue so much.
The trick is...
…that sabermetrics doesn’t really do defensive analysis of catchers all that well yet. When I talk about the numbers, I’m talking about garden-variety stuff that scouts have been using for years: SB/CS rates, pop times, passed balls, etc.
Up until 2010, Doumit got basically average results throwing out runners, maybe a hair above average. His error rates and PB rates were higher than normal – but not bad enough to cancel out the value of his bat. I mean, even if you give up a passed ball in the worst possible situation (man on third), it still only costs you one run. A guy who’s six catastrophic passed balls worse than normal over a season is costing you a theoretical max of six runs. It’s ugly and unaesthetic to watch, sure… just not all that damaging.
I'd go even farther ...
I think the sabermetrics for all positions are statistically questionable.
They have some use. But they are largely misused.
If the glove fits, you must acquit!
Seriously though, the whole reason for statistics is because human observations aren’t always accurate
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Red Herring
All of baseball is documented with video. How we perceive video is subjective – even with sabermetrics because you cannot quantify the unquantifiable. If you watch Doumit (not read his fangraphs), you will see someone who is spotty at best in the field.
Technically speaking...
…how we perceive statistics is also subjective. Merely by looking at something, you’re gradually and inexorably altering it.
I have watched Doumit play on many occasions. My opinion remains unchanged – if anything, my direct observations confirm the position suggested by the numbers. Which is as it should be, insofar as those first-order numbers are merely a direct reflection of the events that I watched on the field.
Sorry to continue to disagree....
….stats are objective. Hits/ABs = BA. Misplaying a ball in RF with 2 outs that leads to 3 runs is not objective nor is there a sabermetric to determine ball park effect/coach positioning/angle of sun/tint of the lights/gravitational pull of the third moon of Venus, etc…..
There is no subjective perception of cold hard stats. They are what they are. Doumit’s defense is not quantifiable. It has to pass the eye test. My eye tells me that with work, he may be a passable at 1B but it is a 50/50 proposition. I do not think he can cover the ground in RF and that his bat would not make up for his defense liability. I think a better risk/reward is Clement at 1B for the remainder of the season with Doumit splitting time at catcher with Snyder and playing 1B every 7th day.
I like Doumit splitting catcher and 1B in 2011 once he gets work in ST.
"There is no subjective perception of cold hard stats."
Really? What about errors? And what about second-order stats derived from errors, like ERA?
Statistics are an objective record of a series of subjective determinations.
Charlie has it right, but the Front Office has a different agenda
Here’s my theory: The front office feels that:
1) Won-loss record this year is now irrelevant
2) Priority for the rest of this year is Asset Management. This means that the players with no trade value that they don’t want to keep on the team (DOH-mit, LaRoche, DY) need to be on the field so their value can hopefully increase for a trade.
3) Corner positions will be decided by whoever is left after trades and in camp next Spring Training amongst those they do want on the team. These include Milledge for right field platoon, Clement for lefty pinch hitter/spot start at first, Bowker for right field platoon and pinch hit, etc.
For a low budget team like the Pirates, this makes alot of sense to build up some numbers for the unwanted guys who have no trade value. Fan interest in seeing playing time for the real future players is not a priority right now.
Two points...
1) By the actions of the front office and manager, won-loss record has been irrelevant since April 2. It didn’t just start happening in the last 2 weeks.
2) I understand that playing guys like Doumit, LaRoche and DY might improve their trade value, but if they don’t perform, it lowers their trade value to zero. Not that it’s much above that now.
Doumit
Vlad, I can’t begin to understand your immense fascination with Ryan Doumit. Perhaps you’ve been watching games of him from a few years ago instead of today. Ryan Doumit is a player who is in DECLINE (and quickly). I think it’s unfair to compare Clement and Doumit. I think we forget that Clement is still learning his position. Seems a bit unfair to judge his offense when I’m sure he’s concentrating more on his defense.
Ryan Doumit, as a hitter, played years in a position where he was comfortable. So I imagine that the offense we saw from Doumit is the absolute best he has to offer. Now throw him in another position and I have to imagine his offense gets a bit worse (if not a lot).
Let’s face it, Ryan Doumit will no longer be a starter in this league, except maybe, just maybe at catcher. If the Pirates want to increase his trade value, they need to get him behind the plate as much as possible to show that his defensvie lapses were a fluke. If not, I don’t see any team being excited to bring Doumit to their team as a right fielder or 1st basemen. His declining skills as a catcher have been so fast, that this has to be a red flag to other teams. I can’t imagine 2 months in right field is going to increase any interedt in him. Too bad they can’t send him down to Indy to play everyday. If the Pirates can prove that he can still catch, he’d be worth something to other teams. To try and turn him into a utility player will dramatically lessen his value, if question marks still remain about his abilities to catch.
Clement, on the other hand, is still an unknown commodity. I think it’s still too early to make assumptions on what his offense in the majors means, so far. He needs to get to the point where he’s completely comfortable at first, first, then he needs to get comfortable at the majors, and THEN we can start judging his offense or potential.
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 11:41 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's not a "fascination".
I just don’t understand why people are trying to run the guy out of town on a rail, even being willing to eat money to do so, when he’s a solid, established ML bat who could provide us with useful insurance at several different positions next year (or bring back a solid trade chip if given a chance to rehabilitate his value).
You are making a lot of assumptions in your post about the arc of Doumit’s future career and the demand for his services, and I do not see that any of them are particularly warranted (or supported by over-much evidence, for that matter). They may be right – but if you want them to be treated as right, you need to show your work.
I’ve already stated the reasons for my skepticism about Clement up above, in response to JRoth, so I won’t repeat them here.
I think that Ryan Doumit’s future value can be explained in two words: Chris Snyder. I believe that if the Pirates thought that Doumit had any future value, the acquisiton of Snyder would not have been necessary.
You’re right, I can’t point to any “facts” about the future, because there is no such thing. As many others have stated, Doumit has a very good bat for a catcher, not so much at other positions.
I think the reason that people want to run Doumit out of town, is because he’s become a huge liability at the only position where he is comfortable: catcher. While his bat can be intriguing, would you put him behind the plate late in a close ball-game? I sure wouldn’t. Is he a late game defensive subsitute at any position on the diamond??? His efforts at other positions have not been encouraging. So he basically becomes strictly a pinch hitter, because you’re afraid to play him anywhere in the field (a la Delwyn Young). Ryan Doumit is a .270 hitter, who’ll give you 10 home runs a year. I’d much rather bring Adam LaRoche back and get the same batting average, more power and a huge upgrade in the glove.
I’ll reassert my position that Ryan Doumit’s value to major league baseball is as a catcher. But, if his defensive skills are not going to come back at the catching position, then he just becomes Delwyn Young II.
So, if the Pirates really want to drive his value up, get him back behind the plate.
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 12:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, here, for the sake of argument:
What leads you to believe…
a) That Doumit is incapable of returning to his acceptable 2009 level of defensive ability?
b) That Doumit is incapable of improving his admittedly-rough defense at 1B and RF, given that he has extremely limited experience at either position and is essentially learning on the job?
c) That Doumit’s bat is in decline, given that he’s put up a .751 raw OPS (fourth on the current team, behind only Cutch, Jones, and Pedro) and an OPS+ that’s only two points below his career value?
I agree that to a certain extent, the Snyder acquisition does speak to a lack of confidence in Doumit on the part of the front office. I also think, however, that it speaks in part to a lack of confidence in the team’s non-Doumit catchers, as well as a recognition that acquiring Snyder was a very good move in terms of pure value. Uncertainty over Doumit’s medical status in the wake of his concussions may have also played a role.
Vlad, Good questions.
I’ll take them one by one.
a. That’s my point exactly. The only way he’s going to prove that his defensive woes behind the plate this year were a fluke, would be to catch, not mess around trying to learn other positions. And catch as often as possible. (Though I don’t want to see Snyder lose out on playing, which puts the Pirates in a bind.) I would think most teams that have an interest in Doumit want to know one thing, and one thing only: Can he still catch? They’re certainly not going to get that answer by watching him at first or the outfield.
B. I should hope for Doumit’s sake that he makes improvements at the other positions. I just don’t see that improving his value all that much. He’s a catcher, first and foremost. I can’t imagine there’s a huge demand in the league for Ryan Doumit the First Baseman or Ryan Doumit the Right Fielder. But Ryan Doumit the Catcher (if he shows he can still block balls and throw out baserunners)? Absolutely.
C. I didn’t say Doumit’s bat was in decline, I said HE was in decline. Has his offense shown dramatic IMPROVEMENT? I’d say his offense is about the same, but if his offense is the same and the defense has a decline, then the net value of the player is a decline.
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 12:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Response
a.) his acceptable level of 2009 defensive ability was over 70 games due to “suprise, suprise” injury. Oh, and he will be 30 next year . Add that to the 2900+ innings his knees have sustained catching over the past 6 years, and I am not hopeful that he could return to his 2009 level for an entire season in 2011 season whether it be at C, RF or 1B. You also have to factor in that he has never been through a season without some sort of DL trip. It is a safe expectation that youl will have to have a back up that will see significant games if he would indeed be backing up Doumit.
b.) I remember the sweat pouring of DY when they showed him working with Perry Hill at 2B last year. How many starts for DY did that work translate into this year? Even if you give Doumit the reps, it does not ensure that he will become proficient. He had the reputation for lacking defense when he came into the league and it is safe to say is not regarded by baseball experts as a above average to average defender. The only place you find that is the widely debated sabermetrics that admitadely dont offer solid fielding statistics.
c.) I would not argue his bat is in decline, but again, he has a track record and Clement does not. We can both agree this season is over, so why not determine an unknown commodity?
You cannot negate the value of the DL track record. Getting Snyder over here gives the team insurance for the annual Ryan Doumit DL list inevitability.
Yoy.
If Doumit’s acceptable defense in 2009 was due solely to the shortness of his season, then how do you explain his equally-acceptable defense in every season prior to 2009?
Why are you acting like 2,900 innings over six years is some crazy workload? That’s, like, three seasons’ worth of playing time for a starting catcher.
What does Delwyn Young have to do with Doumit? Anyone with half a brain already knew that Young couldn’t play 2B – he’d spent his entire minor league career proving that point. And yes, the statistics backed that up.
Why is Clement an unknown commodity? Don’t his minor league performances (which suggest that he has a relatively unexceptional ceiling) count?
I agree that Snyder provides injury insurance for Doumit. Similarly, Doumit provides injury insurance for Snyder, who doesn’t exactly have the strongest track record in that area himself.
Double Yoy
Perhaps we are asking the wrong question. Maybe we should ask the question, “Can Doumit stay healthy enough to give us an entire season with an acceptable level of defense?”. Even though the UZR may disagree, the FO and sabermetrics loving NH see value in making Doumit a 1B/C/RF super sub. I believe their actions speak to the fact that they dont believe that Doumit is capable “of returning to his acceptable 2009 level of defensive ability”.
I bring up the 2900+ innings caught for two reasons:
1. He takes an inordinate amount of batted balls off the facemask as referenced by NH. This repeated impact will have an affect on a person. Doumit has proven over the last 6 years to be injury prone having never played an entire season. It would logically follow that the repeated impact and prones to injury spell impending problem. The more innings he logs, the more susceptable he is to major injury.
2. The effect on knees. Doumit will be 30. Now he will be expected to cover a corner outfield spot that will require running and the occasional dive. How do you expect a 30 year old with no experience and 6 years of catching toll to start tracking and running down fly balls?
2.5 Oh and if you remember, one of his DL stints came in 2008 from diving for a ball in RF. Now add 2 years to his age. What happens if he dives ackwardly now?
You are right with DY, but my point stays the same. While we all knew DY was a trainwreck, he didnt get better with practice. If want to use UZR (which I hate), Doumit’s lifetime UZR at 1B is -4.2. Why do you think with practice he will get better?
As far as Clement is concerned, I want to see his body of work at the MLB level. I think we can all agree that NW has proved us all wrong based on his minor league track record. What about GFJ and his minor league track record? Clement had two months. All I say is that we should give him 1.5 more. While Doumits OPS+ is #4 on the team, do we really car what his WAR is for this year? What is the difference between 54 and 55 wins?
Doumit is fragile.
Always been fragile, always going to be fragile. Fragile at C, fragile at 1B, fragile in the OF, fragile walking down the tunnel to the clubhouse. I don’t think there’s any way to keep him from injuring himself from time to time, and as such, I don’t think health should really factor into considerations of which position(s) he should play.
Doumit’s 1B UZR doesn’t mean much, for several reasons. First, UZR is primarily a measure of range (and effectiveness at fielding batted balls within that range), and as such it doesn’t tell you much about defense for a 1B or a C, where additional considerations (hands and receivership) are a big part of the picture. Second, the sample involves a total of about 250 defensive innings – much less than you would need to draw any real conclusions about a player’s ability. And third, more than half of those negative glove runs come from three bad games this year, when he was re-acclimating himself to the positon on the fly. To the extent that a sample of that size can tell you anything, his 28 games at the position in 2007 are probably a better gague of his abilities (since he had time to get used to the position) than his three games in 2010.
[Just for reference: Prior to our acquisition of Young, he had played more than 400 professional games at 2B, to poor numbers and terrible reviews. Doumit, in contrast, has 37 pro games at 1B, scattered across four seasons.]
Minor league performance generally translates very well into major league performance. There are occasional exceptions like GFJ – but if you spend all your time chasing black swans, you’ll spend most of your time coming home empty-handed.
...health no, but age yes
You are asking a 30 year old to run and slide in RF more so than his body has ever been used to at C. 2 years ago, a slide in RF cost him 30 days on the DL. This should make the case that he should not learn this position on the fly. Let him learn the proper technique in spring training so his fragile body knows how to handle different situations.
1B IMHO is the position that has the least impact physically of any position on the field. You can learn this position on the fly, and I am not averse to having him spell Jones/Clement there every 7 days. My point is that it should be Jones/Clement, not Jones/Doumit. Let Doumit take the extra daily reps and test it out Sundays.
We still may have a black swan with Clement. 2 months is not a sample size to determine success. Give him 1.5 more months and let us make a determination on half a season……
Fragile
Yes, he is fragile. But you don’t really think that RF is as physically threatening to him as C is. Do you?
He’s concussions this year were directly related to the position.
C is much higher risk, unless you are Ryan Church.
Yes I do think RF is physically threatening....
…he spent 30 days on the DL in 2008 because he dived for ball. He is now 2 years older with the 2 years of wear and tear from catching. Add to the fact that he is now tasked with running down fly balls. What happens this time when he dives? I hope he doesnt break a hip ;)
I think they're different kinds of threats.
He’s more likely to get a concussion or a traumatic injury catching, and more likely to get a pull or a sprain in the outfield.
Doumit
cant play catcher anymore. You’re basing his catching ability off of his 71 games at catcher last year instead of the larger body of work. Instead you want to try to see if a below average catcher can get better defensively at two positions where he can only hope to be as good as league average. In two positions where his bat won’t even play no less. Sorry Vlad but this doesn’t add up.
No.
I’m basing my estimate of Doumit’s catching ability on his entire pre-2010 career. In which he was a slightly-below-average but eminently tolerable defender.
Prior to 2010, the reputation had always been much worse than the actual record.
Trouble with Doumit is
He’s very pricey for a league-average (or a bit better) bat with a minus glove at two offensive positions. If Snyder were cheap, or we thought Kratz would be worthwhile until Sanchez’ arrival, then I’d be fine with Doumit splitting catching starts and getting a couple days a week in RF. But he’s way too expensive for a 3 start/week guy, and his glove at 1B is too weak to play more than very occasionally there (conceivably he could work his ass off and get to merely subpar, but his bat is really pretty weak for 1B).
The #1 thing Doumit could do to recover his value is to hit like it’s 2008 again. But there’s no particular reason to expect that ever to happen, and planning around that premise isn’t good management.
Incidentally, I have nothing against the guy at all – I don’t tear my hair out when he’s in the lineup at C or RF. I just don’t think he makes any sense on this team (again, it’s partly fit – the only positions he plays, we have a lot of guys who are better, younger, cheaper, or all 3).
Why is he "way too expensive" for that role?
We have the money to spend, and it’s not like we’re going to be able to go out and buy top-tier (or, in all likelihood, even mid-tier) free agents with it. So why not use a few million bucks on some short-term depth?
I agree with you, JRoth. I guess my point is that the Pirates are wasting their time if they are trying him out at other places in order to drive up his trade value. So perhaps the Pirates really are interested in keeping him around as a utility guy.
Let’s just say the Pirates start Doumit in right field for the next 2 months, he goes on 2009 Garrett Jones like tear and doesn’t commit an error. Do you believe that any team out there is going to be ready to install him as their starting right fielder? More than likely, most teams are going to sat “great to see his bat back!! Wonder if he can still catch?”
While I’m not in favor of taking time away from Snyder, I think that if Doumit shows his defensive struggles behind the plate were a fluke, there’s a great interest in him. If he shows he can play right field, but there are huge question marks about his ability to still catch, that interest probably dwindles to very few teams.
I’d be willing to bet that whatever team Doumit is on next year (unless it’s the Pirates) it will be as a catcher (either starting or back-up). That’s why I think it’s a waste messing around with playing him at other positions UNLESS A. the Pirates are interested in him as a utility guy or B. at the trade deadline, teams were asking the Pirates about him playing other positions.
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 12:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
on this one
I sort of agree with Vlad- that Doumit will get better with reps. Really, do consider that we are throwing a guy out in RF who’s spent the last 3 years concentrating on catching. His bat isn’t great but it’d certainly work as part of a platoon, and there’s the possibility of improvement without catching on his mind…
I think it’s far more likely that the Pirates are trying to showcase him for a trade, and saying that “Look here’s a guy who can be average in the field and give you a good solid bat”
The concern
Is that his bat is weak for RF. Even if you grant a certain improvement in his bat once he’s away from the grind behind the plate, you’re still looking at a guy whose wOBA will be in the bottom half (probably around the 40th percentile) of the league with, at best, a below average glove. For $5M.
So your best case is a guy who is just barely worth having as an RF.
I suppose that there’s value to a team that doesn’t have a set RF and that doesn’t trust their C (the Mets?), and he’s not that expensive in the big picture. But I have trouble with the idea that he deserves the lion’s share of precious playing time. The calculus certainly changes is you give up on Clement now, as Vlad has, but that still leaves Bowker and Moss on top of Jones and Milledge. We don’t need to see much more from the latter two, but it’s not as if you can sit them the rest of the way.
I haven’t given up on those guys at all. In fact, I think the Pirates sort of know what they have with both Doumit and LaRoche, but the roster crunch is forcing them to try to trade them, which is an acceptable way to go for me. I’d also like to see Cutch and Tabata get at least a day off a week, same for GFJ. Play Clement, Milledge and Doumit as often as you can possibly, and in September, do the same with Clement, Bowker and Moss. By then, you know what you have with Milledge anyway, and Doumit trade will have to wait till the offseason.
My only (somewhat) important point above was that I do think Doumit will get better in RF with reps, and likely at 1B too, and his bat is passable, especially given what we’ve run out there for the most part. Esp, if he’s playing as part of a platoon, he can give us production at least as good as GFJ (with the bat, at least)
Vlad reads computer reports
He has no idea if Doumit’s good or bad. That flyball he let drop the other night was a great play, computer said it was a 1 for 1 100% fielding percentage night for him.
He had an above average fielding day.
by Dan Jenkins on Aug 13, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Good call, Dan. Computer geeks are not good evaluators of human talent, they worship machines only. That’s why they’ll never concede anything, they’ll just go find a computer stat rather than consider real logic.
Nice one, "Dan."
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 13, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones....
should be in the lineup most every day and playing first. Milledge is looking more and more like a 4th OF/PH.
Maybe the Bucs should try and package a couple of these guys(and maybe something else?) in a trade for some pitching help. Who knows,it might be possible? Let’s not overthink this….
Agreed. Unfortunately, I think Milledge’s days as a starter are numbered. In fact, I’ll be very surprised if he is the starter Opening Day 2011. The problem becomes that if you have to choose one corner outfielder to give you a high average and small amounts of power, Tabata wins hands down (better average, better arm, better defense, more speed and smarter baserunning, to name just a few of Tabata’s advantages.)
Milledge would be a very good 4th outfielder though (although, I wonder how much better than Brandon Moss – who gives you better defense, a canon arm, more power but a lower average and less speed compared to Milledge.)
I think the Pirates will make a move for a right fielder this off season. They might not land one (since the emphasis will be on pitching), but I think they’ll make a couple of reasonable offers.
Would be funny if they bring back Adam LaRoche to play 1st and move Jones into right field!!
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 12:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Play them all and let God sort them out.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
If God were our GM
We wouldn’t have traded for Ascanio, and I’d be a lot more sanguine about the roster.
lol
no, its just a question of whether he can fully recover from the surgery… I loved his stuff in the little we saw… you could call it somewhat irrational, but i think he has a shot at being a well above average reliever, at the least
You don't have to defend yourself,
“Mrs. Ascanio.”
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 13, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
All joking aside
I’m pretty much there. You have some 50 games left to get an idea. I’d rest people and rotate in as many of these guys as possible.
by RichieHebner on Aug 13, 2010 1:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
RF Solution (Half joking?) - Matt Kemp
MLBTR is saying Ned Coletti thinks the Dodgers may be better off trading Matt Kemp. Matt Kemp?!? Really?!
Looks to me as if Kemp has two years of eligibility left before he becomes a FA. Stick Kemp in RF and all of a sudden we have, IMO, one of the best outfields in the game. We also have our #3 hitter debate solved.
What would two years of Matt Kemp cost? Probably still a heck of alot, though the Lambo/Mcdonald for Dotel deal makes me think maybe, just maybe.. an Aki for Kemp swap could be in the works!
It is -- Realized after I posted it..
In any sense, if things get heated between Kemp, his agent, and the Dodgers anything’s possible…
also Kemp's bat
isn’t great in a corner either, and he’s not really the hardest worker… still is a good player, but I dont know that I’d want to give up what it’d take…
Don't forget we have players coming up that can play right field
Marte, Lamo, Rendon
Let’s just laugh along for the next few weeks.
NH has been successful played the “our players are great and we want to keep them” card, and gotten great returns. No question he is not stupid, but will this work to unload DOH-mit/LaRoche? Well, someone did trade Slim Mac and Lambo for DOH-tel, so maybe NH is on to something here…
If you take this as a "down year"..
you can assume Kemp to be a .280 – .300 hitter, with 25 Hr’s and a minimum .800 OPS..
Though that doesn’t profile, as you say, as well in CF as it does in RF, the assumed defensive production he’d get from moving out of CF would help balance that..
Kemp's defense was never elite in CF
I suppose I m worried about his motivation level and things like that, and that he’s been absolutely horrible whenever I watched him this year, but I get your point. A solid .800 OPS in RF is not something to scoff at, but assuming it will take us at least a Rudy Owens and Alex Presley to get it done, I don’t know…
I was thinking Gorkys would be a decent prospect to send to LAD..
defensive minded CF, still has upside, isn’t too far away from the bigs..
Adcock, Gorkys, Milledge, and Morton for Kemp. Is it fair value for him? Probably not, but if they get boxed into trading him, it may be a competitive offer..
I'd say that's fair value
Or damn near it, unless you totally discount Morton.
Actually, how’s Gorkys doing lately? Haven’t heard much about him. If he’s continuing to hit, then he’s a guy you could see in the bigs in 2011 (obviously not to start the year).
now if we could get Kemp
for Doumit, Milledge or others clogging up RF/1B, I’d do it, but trades shouldn’t work in that manner- it is Ned Colletti, as you said, so who knows, maybe he can sell it as reloading the farm :P
You are missing something - Kemp is a "Hollywood" kind of guy
dates actresses, runs around town to TV shows, etc.
He would not be happy in Pittsburgh, and would bolt upon free agency, leaving the Pirates with nothing. Pirates don’t need stop gap in right field for a year or two. Pirates need pitching, and it will be happening by the time Marte/Lambo arrive.
We don't sell the farm for two years of Matt Kemp..
I have no doubt Kemp would bolt for free-agency.
2012 could realistically be a year of competition with a bat like Kemp’s in the lineup, instead of “hopefully”. The AA guys will be up by 2012 and our lineup should, for the most part, look pretty good if we take the development of the core seriously..
The difference between Kemp and Marte/Lambo for 2012 is, in all likelihood, going to be drastic.
This sounds about right
I’m not saying we need to be pursuing Kemp or anything, I just thing that the arguments for are decent. I definitely think that one more big bat (esp. if it comes with a glove) in 2012 could be the difference between approaching .500 and contending.
Heck, I'm not even fully arguing that we should go get Kemp...
Only that if the Dodgers have any plans of shipping him out, it’s my opinion that we have both young ML-ready talent that’s still somewhat interesting (Morton, Milledge, Moss) and a boatload of prospects I wouldn’t consider untouchable (Adcock, Locke, Gorkys, Lambo, Presley, Moskos, etc.). This would enable us to compete more seriously and at possibly a faster pace, without damaging the farm system.
Doumit is....
…a marginal MLB player who would have a difficult time finding playing time or even sticking with most other clubs. The fact that Pirate brass is working so hard to get him at-bats is more a sign of the talent decay in Pittsburgh than Doumit’s abilities. His “success” at the MLB level has been marginal at best also. To me he is a catcher or nothing; he’s not proven to be a consistent enough threat with the bat to offset his obvious shortcomings at catcher, 1B or RF. Let him concentrate of improving behind the plate and finding his stroke.
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 13, 2010 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
see my comment above, I think they are playing him only for asset management purposes. Let’s try to laugh along for now, the record doesn’t mean anything. If NJ can unload $ 5 million or so from pumping up DOH-mit’s numbers and put the money elsewhere, it’ll be worth the pain.
Yeah, MLB is loaded with catching.
Guys who can put up a 100 OPS+ from behind the plate practically grow on trees. That’s why Jason Kendall still has a starting gig.
Using the Royals as an example
is never a concrete argument.
OK, pick someone else, then.
Jack Z came into the season with a starting catcher with a career 58 OPS+. Who went on to hit .191/.293/.281 for them this year.
If Doumit was such an attractive peice
he would be gone by now. All of these teams lacking catchers would be knocking our door down for Ryan Doumit. Or would have at least given up more than we did for Snyder. The fact that we are trying to play Doumit in two positions he’s never played to salvage value is evidence enough that he is worthless as a catcher. Its not hard. He has no value.
If Doumit was such an attractive peice
he would be gone by now.
Agreed. There’s no way to avoid that more teams are using advanced fielding metrics and that hurts Doumit’s value. Even basic metrics and scouting do as well.
It’s interesting a team like Seattle doesn’t have any interest, but at this point they figure “Why pay a decent price for this below-average option (Doumit) when we’re out of contention, even if we have to stick with a horrible option like Kotchman for the rest of the year”.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 13, 2010 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Also ...
They are counting on Smoak at 1b next year and Adam Moore at c.
But you make a good point. Trader Jack knows Doumit from the division. If anyone were going to try, you’d think it would be him.
I forgot about Smoak for a second. But you figure some team would have taken a flier by now.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 13, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Per advanced fielding metrics...
…(and basic fielding metrics, and scouting reports) Doumit wasn’t that bad a defender until 2010. As such, the question becomes why Doumit’s defense fell off a cliff this year, and whether other teams think that it can be fixed. And if you ask 29 teams about that, you’re probably going to get 29 different answers.
Nobody's going to trade for Doumit...
…until he shows that there aren’t going to be any issues going forward due to the concussions.
If he’s able to show that he’s healthy for the rest of the year, that’ll go a long way toward rehabilitating his value.
Exactly...
…that’s the MLB version (Pirates/Royals) of “Dumb and Dumber!” Although as Charlie’s post points out the Royal’s appear to have a great deal of talent in the minors….
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 15, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
In fairness ...
Kendall is a much, much better defensive player this year than Doumit.
Your point is not without merit.
But if Doumit were so valuable, I suspect teams would be calling for him.
I doubt NH has to interrupt too many dinners with trade conversations over Doumit.
Hey Vladamir, I have a job for you that only you can do...
Can you please ask your computer to make the following calculation:
Calculate all batting averages, HR, RBI, etc. of all players who are admitted or highly suspected PED users for the past 17 years.
Average those numbers into those player’s stat, and replay on the computer all Pirates games for the past 17 years.
Then give us the new Pirates records for each year without facing any PED infused teams. Let’s see if the Pirates would have had a winning record!
Thanks in advance to you and Big Blue…
Why would you want to do that?
It wouldn’t come close to proving anything one way or the other until there’s more research into quantifying the performance benefit that different drugs provide in baseball-related activities. And you’d just be guessing as to who used what when, anyway.
Seems like you could just make a wild-ass wrong guess, cut out the middleman, and save a bunch of time.
If you believe that ...
I have a used car for sale. I’ll give you a great deal. Promise.
NH would love to remove that contract from the books. It’s laughable to think anyone would take Doumit without the Pirates essentially paying his entire contract.
And I guess every beat writer out there has missed covering the story.
Just joking, Vlad. But you can’t really think there is a market for him.
He'll pass thru waivers unclaimed
if he hasn’t already. A .260’s NON fielder with limited power isn’t a hot commodity.
Of course NH has never put much credence into defense, and it shows with his .350 win % as a GM.
if you think he'll pass through unconditional waivers unclaimed
you’re crazy…
if you are talking about the August waiver trade deadline, that s a different story altogether…
I don't know that there's a market now.
Mostly due to the concussions. But that’s not the same thing as saying that there won’t be a market this offseason, or next year.
I do think that if another team got an opportunity to pick him up at a discount, they could do very well for themselves. Kind of like we did with Snyder.
And I think ...
NH would drive him to his new team if someone called and offered to take that contract.
He has negative value right now. Maybe he’ll get it back next year. But I’m also certain he breezed through waivers and I doubt we’ll see an August deal for Doumit unless we swallow money like the D-backs did with Snyder.
Sure.
If we try to force him into a deal while his value is low, we won’t be able to make a good deal for ourselves. Which is why we should hold him and let him try to rebuild some of his value, so that he can be exchanged at fair value for actual assets.
I think both ...
Why would you claim Doumit and take on his salary for next year? The Pirates will pay you to take him, I think.
NH would love it.
Moreover, if you claim him in August, NH can dump the contract. Nobody’s taking that risk.
The Pirates won’t put him on unconditional waivers. But who would take on Doumit’s contract based on his health history?
Someone who wants a bench bat down the stretch?
Jose Guillen just got traded to the Giants. You can’t tell me Doumit’s a less attractive option than Jose Guillen…
Yes ...
the story I read today sounded like the Royals are paying nearly his entire contract for the rest of the year.
And it’s the final year of his deal.
So yes, I think Guillen would be far more attractive to most teams than taking on a $5 million backup catcher.
At first I thought you were joking, then I realized you weren’t.
If I’m a team in contention and I’m looking for a bat on the bench for the rest of the year…..hmmmm….Jose Guillen, Jose Guillen…..and Jose Guillen..Gives you the same average as Doumit with twice as many homers, seems like a no brainer to me.
But if you’re talking about beyond this year, I’d say Doumit probably has a lot more life left in his career than Guillen, but ONLY as a catcher (I think I’m going to be saying this until I’m blue in the face) and ONLY if he can prove that he can throw out more than 7% of baserunners that try to steal on him. NO contender has room on their roster for a catcher like that. Now, maybe a team that isn’t contending, on the other hand……
by impliedi on Aug 13, 2010 6:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, I'm not joking ...
Guillen has a financial hit of zero after this year.
Doumit is nearly $6 million, including his options buyout.
Why would you take on that financial obligation for someone who will be a part-time player on a contending team? He’s worthless to a noncontending team this year.
You can get Doumit-level performance for under $2 million on the free agent market.
That’s why the Bucs can’t move him. He’s owed far more than he’s worth.
Is Doumit a better player? Probably. But from the Giants’ perspective, Guillen is perfect. He may help. He doesn’t cost the team much beyond the minimum for this year. Then his contract expires at the end of the year.
Does that make sense? Not sure if I was clear earlier.
Thanks, sorry ...
I get confused with threads at times, particularly when I’m trying to work at the same time.
Please, tell me:
Which catchers are going to deliver a Doumit-level offensive performance next year for less than $2M?
I want some names.
"the same average as Doumit with twice as many homers"
Ryan Doumit, 2010: 101 OPS+
Jose Guillen, 2010: 101 OPS+
And Guillen has a reputation (rightly or wrongly) as the single biggest asshole and disruptive clubhouse force in baseball today. And of course, he’s a fumblingly helpless defender in the OF – but is unlikely to ever improve there, given that he’s been doing it all his life. And he can’t play catcher.
Guess what??
We don’t have a backup shortstop this weekend. Biertempfel reporting Cedeno out for the weekend with a sore shoulder. If there’s an injury…I guess we find out whether LaRoche or Walker can play SS.
Also…in a very minor move…Travis Chick traded to Rangers for PTBNL.
Diaz looked bad yesterday
overran two grounders and hit weak grounders in the infield.
NEEEEXXXXXTTTT !
Castro
has a jittery start with the Cubbies after his initial Big First Game™.
I was at the CHI/FLA game where he made two errors, and got bailed out by the scorer on another.
As far as your “NEXT,” Who do you have in mind?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 13, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Lastings ...
to put his year in context, he’s at approximately the same ops as Brandon Moss last year.
I certainly think Brandon’s Moss’s power numbers in the minors and Bowker’s recent tear have earned them so at bats.
Also, Moss is a much better defender, I think.
If we’ve given up on Clement then I’d take Bowker at 1st and…sigh…Brandon Moss in RF most of the time for the remainder of the season.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 13, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously ...
we are a top three pick team. See what they got. Bowker, Clement and Moss all have some upside.
They may all end up being released. But at least make an informed decision.
I don’t see why you don’t give all 100 at bats before the end of the year and see what happens.
We need to park our failed catcher in the position he can’t play (RF). Let that fresh talent rot.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 14, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Because you don't need to give Clement 100 AB...
…to know that he doesn’t have enough to offer to be worth keeping.
Jones
I wonder how many of you experts know that Garret Jones leads the pirates in home runs and rbis.
Who will take on a mediocre catcher owed guaranteed $5-6 million next year?
Arizona just found such a team . . . ba da bump!
Sorry I couldn’t resist. We did take on chunk of money when I think we could have found a cheaper player who would have been roughly equivalent in the off-season (I said the same about Iwamura last winter—not that Snyder will hit .180 . . . more like .230 . . . but, they won’t run on him at will like they can on Doumit now).
I still look at Doumit’s 2008 season and think he could swing the bat pretty decent at a less-taxing position like right field. I remember how much better Kevin Mitchell and Bobby Bo did when they moved from 3B to OF.
I’m not saying that Doumit will be a star (or even a league-average RF). Given the chance, he just might be closer to a league-average RF than Milledge (or Bowker or Moss or whoever). I think Doumit’s OPS is about the same as Jones at the moment and people aren’t griping about him (yet) despite playing a tougher, more grueling position.
Admittedly, I’m putting too much faith in what Doumit did a couple of years ago. But, Milledge has had about a full season’s worth of at bats with the Pirates at this point. He’s subpar. His OPS is about the same as his full year with the Nats. His 2008 was worse than Doumit’s, although he is younger. I’d don’t see him suddenly getting a spike in walks or power numbers. I’d just throw Doumit in RF for the rest of August (at least against righties). If he gets hot, leave him there. If not, then give those plate appearances to Clement or Bowker or somebody in September.
I think the disdain for Doumit’s decline in performance in what should be his prime years (and his lack of hustle and injury-proneness) is making people forget that he could be less mediocre in RF than the alternatives in the organization. A bad fielding RF doesn’t kill you like a bad fielding catcher will.
Yes, that’s what we’re reduced to. Who is less below average in RF?
Admittedly, I’m putting too much faith in what Doumit did a couple of years ago. But, Milledge has had about a full season’s worth of at bats with the Pirates at this point. He’s subpar. His OPS is about the same as his full year with the Nats. His 2008 was worse than Doumit’s, although he is younger. I’d don’t see him suddenly getting a spike in walks or power numbers.
I agree with all of this. But, Milledge is a far better defensive outfielder than Doumit (that’s not saying much), so I think Milledge still offers more value overall than Doumit.
Clement and Bowker should at least get a look very soon (at least in September, though I’d do sooner), even if the odds are long.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 15, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
The odds of Clement becoming a useful ML player...
…are significantly longer than the odds of Doumit rebuilding his value. As such, why does it make sense to take playing time from Doumit and give it to Clement?
I disagree b/c there’s too many variables on Doumit. He has to stay healthy (unlikely) and improve drastically on defense (also unlikely). Then he has to hit like he used to, which is (again) not likely for reasons I laid out earlier. Clement hasn’t even gotten consistent ABs with the Pirates.
We gave Lastings Milledge a million PAs, and even though I had high hopes, he has hit like Tike Redman for over a full season. Seems kind of obvious to give othe players a shot.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
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