SB Nation Pittsburgh Editor's Pick
Six Weeks Left. How to Manage Playing Time.
It goes without saying the Pittsburgh Pirates 2010 season has been an unmitigated disaster. Andy LaRoche, Aki Iwamura, Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby all had a chance to hold everyday jobs the first half of the year. Three are now gone and LaRoche's career is on life support.
Every starting pitcher, literally every one, has been a disappointment. Zach Duke is a very real non-tender candidate. Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln have massively underperformed expectations. Paul Maholm seems to be regressing. Ross Ohlendorf, who has actually pitched pretty well the second half of the season, has one win.
We know the story of the young position players and the bullpen and those have been bright spots.
Now, with 1/4 of the season left, it is important the Pirates use this time to further evaluate some players on the bubble. Here are some of my thoughts.
Starting Pitching: It's time to go to a six or seven man rotation. James McDonald hasn't pitched a lot of innings and has done well enough that he should get a regular turn as should Ross Ohlendorf. I would probably keep sending Maholm out there as well. That leaves about 16-18 starts for the rest of the team. There is no point in being sentimental about this. Zach Duke doesn't deserve anymore starts. Period. He has the worst numbers of any pitcher in the majors. I would non-tender him after the season. He isn't worth $5 million. Time to move on. He can spot start if necessary.
On September 1 Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton should be called up. I would put Lincoln right back in the rotation and get him five starts down the stretch. I would start Morton in the pen but would look to get him 2-3 starts before the end of the year to gauge any progress. That leaves about ten starts which I would use between Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Sean Gallagher. Bullpen usage will no longer be a factor with the expanded rosters. Gallagher's command is a huge issue but I would let him try to go five or six innings as a starter based on some effective longer stints out of the pen. McCutchen gets one last chance before being permanently relegated to the pen and AAAA status. Karsten, the one guy who has really outperformed expectations, gets the remaining 4-6 starts. He has proven useful, but I think it is apparent what he is now--an effective long-man and spot starter, nothing more.
That leaves the team with Ohlendorf, McDonald and Maholm as three of next year's starters with ten other guys being candidates. Minor leaguers Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris and Jeff Locke are not going north in April next year. It is not a pretty picture as we sit here today.
Field Positions: Five positions are effectively nailed down starting next season--left field (Tabata), center field (McCutchen), third base (Alvarez), second base (Walker) and catcher (Snyder). The two shortstops closest to the majors, Argeniz Diaz and Pedro Ciriaco have a very similar pedigree--good glove, limited bat. I'm not willing to write off Ronny Cedeno for next year but I would only give him 20 of the remaining starts and I'd split the other 20 between Diaz and Ciriaco just to get a better look. It won't tell you much, but there is no reason not to do it.
First base and left field are a hodgepodge of guys at critical junctures in their careers. The second half of this season has seen Garrett Jones fully revert to the numbers all the forecasting systems predicted of him when he came up last season. While hitting well with RISP Lastings Milledge really is not proving to be more than a fourth outfielder. His season numbers are now almost identically in-line with his career numbers and he's had over 600 PAs as a Pirate. I really see no reason to give Jones more than twenty starts down the stretch and I'd give Milledge virtually none.
That leaves four players for 60-70 starts--Ryan Doumit, Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss and John Bowker. The reason to play Doumit is that the team owes him $5.3 million next year and he's the best player out of the six. Many people don't like him, but his rate stats are exactly the same as Garrett Jones' this year and his counting stats are almost perfectly equal when you take into account that Jones has 150 more at bats. The fact is that Doumit is the best guy currently on the roster to play right field next year if Jones is playing first base. I don't have any expectations, but maybe not catching everyday will increase his productivity. And for the record, Doumit and Jones are just 79 days apart in age.
Speaking of age, it's somewhat ironic that Clement, Moss and Bowker are all only 70 days apart. Next year will be their age 27 season. (Milledge is two years younger.) I now have low expectations that any of these guys pan out. I would start Clement 30 games at first base down the stretch. I still think he has some potential, but he is out of options next year and has had less of an opportunity than Moss. If the teams rests Tabata and Cutch five games each Moss and Bowker can both get ten starts. Again, there is very little value in it, but it's better to see something as opposed to nothing at all.
Bullpen: I think Wilfredo Ledezma, Chris Resop and Gallagher, all acquired for basically nothing later in the season, have a chance to compliment Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan next year. I would focus on those three with Joe Martinez being another guy to look at.
Summary: The last 39 games aren't likely to produce more than 10-15 wins regardless, so the team should take the time to see as much as they can from some of these guys rather than known quantities like Zach Duke, Jeff Karstens, Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge. If even one guy turns out to give a good evaluation and ends up helping the club next year it will be playing time well spent.
The reality is this brutal season might get even worse the last forty games. The sobering thought is there are still glaring holes in next year's roster that are not going to buttressed by additions from a talented but extremely young minor league system.
And for the first time in three years, I really think John Russell could be gone at the end of the season. Too many fundamental errors by the players, too many lineups that make no sense and, simply put, too much losing. Time for Russell to go.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I agree with all points
except DFAing Duke. Next years rotation is going to be just as dicey as this years, but I don’t see why they shouldn’t run Duke out there in the hopes that he puts together a few good months and some team is willing to give the Bucs something for him, much the same as they’re doing with Doumit. I know Doumit actually provides some value, and Duke provides very little, but it’s worth a shot. If Charlie Morton hadn’t self-destructed so spectacularly I might feel differently, but he did. Duke taking some starts next year wouldn’t prevent anyone with talent from making any starts.
The reality is this brutal season might get even worse the last forty games. The sobering thought is there are still glaring holes in next year’s roster that are not going to buttressed by additions from a talented but extremely young minor league system.
Man, next season is going to be rough.
It's a good day to be a Pirate
Zach Duke doesn’t deserve anymore starts. Period
Except against the Mets, apparently. Pitched a humdinger today.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Duke beats both.....
Santana and Holliday this year with fantastic starts. Too bad it happens once a month.
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It'd probably happen more than once a month...
…if we didn’t have grossly subpar defenders “locked in” at second and third base.
At this point, I’m all about moving Walker back to 3B, moving Pedro to 1B, benching Jones, and finding a new 2B for 2011.
+1
I like Garret Jones in a sort of Delwyn Young plus role. He could be a strong pinch hitter, and get 2-3 starts a week when Pedro or whoever’s in right needs a break, or if you want to rest Walker and move Pedro over to 3rd for a game.
I like it.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Yeah, I can dig that.
He’s got enough going on to be worth keeping on the roster, especially in a role like that.
While i agree with the overall point
I would argue you on some things.
1) If the rotation is already bad, why would you not keep Duke and instead send in one of the headaches that is Lincoln, Morton, D.Cutch? I understand we want to see what we have but we can do that and still keep a reasonable starter at a reasonable price.
2) G. Jones is only in his first full season in the majors, let not forget that despite his age. I’m not ready to cast him off because he played an average season. He clearly has the power potential and he will still be learning how to adjust to MLB pitchers, add that in with a hopefully better Alvarez behind him in the lineup next year and he could have an even better year than his rookie season.
3) Next year will not be worse with the glaring holes you speak of. I cannot imagine the pitching could get any worse, so I see that only being better, not worse next year. As for the lineup, half the guys in it will be able to go to camp and relax and work on things instead of just competing for a roster spot, plus they will be here for a full year. Both are good things for guys like Alvarez and Walker.
I have to believe
This season is a more accurate representation of what we can expect from Jones than last season. That doesn’t mean he sucks, he’s just kind of average. That’s fine and all, but I think it would be smarter at this point to see if someone else can make a bigger impact from 1B/RF. I just don’t see Jones as more than a platoon player.
As far as the pitching goes, they are one or two injuries away from a disaster of biblical proportions. I don’t even want to think about who the Bucs would be running out there if, say, MacDonald or Maholm go down.
nojinxnojinxnojinxnojinx
It's a good day to be a Pirate
All fair points.....
I don’t think next year will be worse, but I do think they have to go out and get some starting pitching. Can’t just look internally.
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Idk about Ohlie being a disappointment. The rest of the rotation yes, but Ohlendorf has been pretty good much of the last few months, though his run support has been terrible.
SP – Agree on pretty much everything apart from DFAing Duke.
Field – I give Milledge 20 starts and Bowker and Moss 10 apiece. Jones gets 25 starts, Clement 15. Doumit can’t field for his life anywhere but Catcher, so Snyder gets 30 starts and Doumit gets 10.
Bullpen – No arguments.
Zach Duke has outperformed Karstens and Maholm this year. No doubt about it.
The only veteran hitter who’s played well, aside from Cutch, is Cedeno. He’s earned almost all the PT at shortstop if healthy.
Well...
Duke, Karstens, and Maholm actually are all about the same
ERA/xFIP/K-BB/WAR
DUKE: 5.10/4.29/2.03/ 0.7
KARSTENS: 4.98/4.62/2.41/0.2
MAHOLM: 4.92/4.81/1.37/1.2
So…Duke’s slightly higher ERA seems to be just a bit more bad luck than the other two. But I don’t know that he’s greatly outperformed the other two.
Bottom line, though, is that none of these guys really have business being a top-three guy (maybe Maholm as a three judging by WAR).
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Duke has been one of our better pitchers this season. Of the starters who have been here all season, his xFIP is the staff’s best and his FIP (doesn’t correct HR/FB rate) is third best (Maholm and Ohlendorf are better). It’s not his fault that the defense behind him is underwhelming-at-best (.340 BABIP).
I think....
we now definitely know what Zack Duke is. I can buy into the argument of bringing him back for a look next year, but not for $5 million. I can’t pay him approximately 10% of the team’s budget. Those resources have to be better allocated. While the defense hasn’t been great, Duke has some responsibility. The problem is for every good outing like yestreday, there are three terrible ones. And the second half Maholm’s been much the same.
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I think Vlad has pointed this out elsewhere, but Zach Duke is essentially a league-average pitcher. $5 million/year is about what you can expect to pay a league average pitcher of Duke’s age on the open market. If anything, we’ll get a discount because his bubblegum stats are poorer than they would be with a major league defense behind him.
I'd buy into that.....
if Zach Duke’s career stats weren’t BAA .303, OBP .350, SLG .457. OPS .807.
The OPS against was .941 and .812 in 2007 and 2008 with “good defense” behind him. His career K/9 rate is 4.7, so the 5.6 this year is likely an anomaly. Blaming Duke’s lack of success on the defense is really misguided in my opinion. He has a career whip of 1.468 and doesn’t miss bats. If you take out his 2005 numbers, as another poster mentioned, he isn’t close to league average. His ERA+ since then is 100, 79, 88, 102, 78. That is with the supposedly excellent defense from a few of those years, etc. He isn’t worth 10% of the team’s budget next year.
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Good defense?
Duke’s BABIPs, followed by the Pirates’ BABIP as a team:
2005: .302; .294
2006: .334; .320
2007: .370 (!); .320
2008: .322; .316
2009: .301; .305
2010: .341; .311
Duke’s career BABIP is .327. League average during Duke’s career is .300.
“Supposedly” is a good word, because we “supposedly” had good defense during those years but the reality is that we did not. And pitchers like Zach Duke get killed because of it. Duke’s WHIP is high because he gives up a lot of hits (because, again, his defense sucks). He only walks 2.4 per nine innings for his career, which is a pretty good rate.
We can agree....
to disagree. When Duke beats Halladay and Santana he can look so good. His K/9 is up a bit this year. An average major league starter is certainly worth $5 million/yr. I just think he isn’t actually good or league average. His ERA+ I think clearly shows that. I won’t be upset if they keep him around next year by agreeing to a one year deal or going to arbitration. I just really think there will be better options out there for $5 million.
I’m secretly begging for a couple of Donnie Veal, Ascanio, Hart, Morton, Lincoln to be reasonably good.
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Let's try it this way
$5 million on the open market gets you:
-Brian Moehler, who sucks. But you get to keep $2.5 million to buy another one with.
-Justin Duchscherer, admittedly a good pitcher, but one who didn’t play in 2009 and has made five starts this season. And is 32.
-Doug Davis, roughly equivalent to Zach Duke but is 34 this year and looked less than stellar before going on the DL.
-Vicente Padilla, equivalent to Duke and 32 years old.
-Chien-Ming Wang. Only a couple years older than Duke, but was coming off a godawful season that landed him on the DL and he still hasn’t come back from the injury.
-Livan Hernandez. Nats got him on a minor league contract, he’s servicable enough but also 35.
-Koji Uehara, a Japanese signing who comes with the usual question marks.
-Mark Hendrickson, a virtual Zach Duke clone who is almost a decade older.
-Jon Garland, at $5.3M, slightly over the hypothetical budget, but is also only 30 and is marginally better than Duke.
That’s when I got bored looking through Cot’s, but I think the point is clear. Finding somebody on the open market for $5 million who is better than Duke is easier said than done. Better to keep a hold of the Duke you’ve already got.
Don't forget to....
count guys like Brett Myers and Carl Pavano, the two screaming best examples of guys signed to one year deals this off-season. Yes, Pavano was $7 million, but you need to put those guys in there.
And saying Garland is “marginally” better than Duke is like saying the Sun is marginally bigger than the earth. Take a look at their ERA+ numbers. Not even close.
Also, I was guessing that Duke gets $5 million so no need to restrict up or down, I just don’t seeing him getting much less than that in arbitration. It would be interesting to see what numbers each side would submit if they had to do it the day the season ended with no contact between the sides.
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Not sure if you've noticed or not
But I’m not very interested in ERA+ numbers. I don’t care how good the defenses around these pitchers have been. :-)
Myers was not a $5M contract. He had a mutual option for $8M in 2011 with a $2M buyout. That means he was signed to a $7M contract, just like Pavano. Since $7M > $5M, no, I do not need to put them in there. And you don’t get to move the goalposts in your argument now so that you get to include them. You said $5M, which is what Duke will cost, can buy you an unquestionably better pitcher on the open market.
You can pick a fight.....
if you want. I don’t know exactly what Duke is going to make next year. $5 million is a decent guess. The Pirates are also not constrained or forced to pay that amount. So, choosing everyone who made less than or exactly $5 million but not a cent over that amount isn’t a very interesting conversation. Drawing a circle around the group of pitchers who made a couple million less and a couple million more is probably a more appropriate discussion.
As for not liking ERA+, that’s your choice. It’s one of a number of stats that adds value to the discussion and tries to equate numbers across years and take into account park effects. Certainly as reasonable as any numbers that try to contextualize defense.
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I just really think there will be better options out there for $5 million.
Those are your exact words, dude. For a team in the Pirates’ position [you may have heard once or twice that they only made $5M profit last year ;-)], $7 million is a very significant difference from $5 million.
The value that ERA+ adds to the discussion is negligible. It is marginally useful for quickly comparing guys across teams and eras. It is not at all useful for figuring out how a) well a guy will do when he changes teams (since his defense changes) or b) how well the guy himself actually pitches, since ERA+ refuses to strip out the the very real effect of team defense that you keep trying to ignore.
Numbers .....
suggest over the years that Duke has pitched the Pirates’ defense has been at times good and at times bad. So my assumption based on Duke’s actual performance is the whatever defense plays behind him isn’t all of a sudden going to make him any better than league average at best.
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Brett Myers is slime.
I wouldn’t take him if he paid for free.
Or do you think that unrepentent wife-beaters are what’s going to put the team over the top in 2011? Maybe we can put “Smack A Bitch Up” night on the promotional schedule next year.
Or, another way to look at it
Duke gets crushed. When he’s on, he gets by on impeccable control. But he’s not Greg Maddux, so it’s almost never enough.
The guy gets rocked when he’s not hitting every spot.
He averages over 230 hits per full season, which means everyone’s a batting champion against him.
To put a .327 career BABIP and 230 hits/season on the defense is kind of stretching it. He throws a mid-80s fastball that doesn’t move much, that’s why.
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Question is...
Can the Bucs do better than Duke for less than $5million? I would be surprised if they could.
Myers and Garland....
and Pavano at $7 million are all significantly better. I’d roll a couple million at Ben Sheets and buy a lottery ticket as well.
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The problem is
they’re all lottery tickets. I went down ESPN’s list of 2009 FA starting pitcher signings, and found 8 who signed for between $5M and $7.5M to see how this year would have played out.
Jason Marquis: $7.5M (2 years, $15M total), spent most of the season on the DL, has pitched 21.1 innings this year, is 0-6 with an 11.39 ERA, or if you prefer advanced stats, a 36 ERA+ and -1.8 WAR.
Rich Harden: $7.5M, has bounced on and off the DL, pitching 81 innings (16 games), is 5-4 with a 5.0 ERA, 87 ERA+, 0.3 WAR.
Brad Penny: $7.5M, has been effective when available (124 ERA+), but injured most of the year (55.2 innings across 9 games), 0.6 WAR.
Carl Pavano: $7M, excellent by any measure (15-8, 3.56 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.9 WAR)
Jon Garland: $5.3M, also very good (13-8, 3.25 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.3 WAR)
Doug Davis: $5.25M, on and off the DL, pitched only 38.1 innings in 8 games, 1-4 with a 7.51 ERA, 53 ERA+, -1.5 WAR.
Brett Myers: $5.1M, excellent (9-7, 3.08 ERA, 132 ERA+, 4.2 WAR)
Vicente Padilla: $5.025M, on and off the DL (91 IP in 15 games), not bad, not great (6-4, 3.96 ERA, 97 ERA+, 0.9 WAR).
Three very good pitchers (Pavano, Garland, Myers), two absolute busts (Marquis and Davis), and three average pitchers who spent too much time not pitching (Harden, Penny, Padilla). I’d claim that all the latter five are “worse than Duke”, as a Harden, Penny, or Padilla means you have to run your sixth-best pitcher out there for a third to half of those starts. So you’ve got a 3/8 chance of doing better and a 5/8 chance of doing worse.
Like so many other things – maybe you take that shot when you’re on the cusp of 85-90 wins; roll the dice and hope that it gets you those extra 4-5 wins. But it’s not clear to me that the upside is worth it for a 65-70 win team.
Good analysis....
I think by definition, signing a one year contract (except Marquis) means these guys ARE lottery tickets.
I guess I would ask what kind of contract anyone thinks Duke would make as a free agent on the open market this off-season?
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About what he'd get in an arb award.
He’d probably get a much better one in 2011, though, after spending a year pitching in front of a non-shitty defense and mysteriously chopping three quarters of a run off of his ERA.
If you roll a couple million at Ben Sheets...
…you’re going to get a guy who had Tommy John surgery about two weeks ago, as well as several additional tendon repairs (including the flexor tendon).
Your odds of getting anything out of him next year are between slim and none, and slim just left town.
Bowker, Moss, and Clement
I’d really like to see these 3 guys get long looks at RF/1B the remaining quarter of the season. Yes, Clement and Moss failed in their initial trials on the team, but we already know what we have in Jones and Doumit and it’s mediocrity. Bowker in particular intrigues me, and Moss has really come on the second half of this year in AAA. Doumit’s trade value as a RF or 1B is very low; I don’t see showcasing him there as accomplishing much.
Platoon G Jones?
For a player in his first, full big-league season who had very little protection in the lineup I don’t see any reason to toss him aside so quickly?? Who exactly on the current roster has done anything to even consider platoon time with GJ? Obviously if the Pirates were able to land a 1B stud that’s a different story but based on performance, and again I have to stress first full-season and very little protection, and the available roster-options I think he’s earned afull-time job heading into next year.
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 23, 2010 9:58 AM EDT reply actions
Because there's no upside there
Jones is what, 29 years old? What you see is what you get at this point. He was great in half a season last year, but is mediocre this year, which all of the projections expected. He’s not a long term piece of the puzzle.
that and he needs a day off
he has had what 5 in two seasons, he needs about a week off.
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by WVPiratesfan on Aug 23, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
valid points....
….except i don’t see his age having much to do with anything; 29 isn’t over the hill by any stretch. I agree with the long-term solution except that the Pirates don’t appear to have a better long-term solution at 1B. Obvioulsy that changes as players come and go but my point is based on what is available on the roster now.
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 23, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
He is not over the hill by any stretch...
but I think the point is that he is not likely to improve anymore. It’s more likely that his numbers this season represent his true talent level than last season given his minor league career. Jones would be more valuable as a complimentary player in the Sid Bream mold. So I wouldn’t toss him aside but I’d have no problems giving Bowker some at bats and also sitting Jones against lefties. However, Bowker is the only one I’m interested in. I have seen more than enough of Clement and I don’t think Jones should lose at bats to Moss either.
I can live with all of that......
……..and am intrigued at what Bowker can offer too.
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 24, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
There's some pretty sobering stuff here . . .
but the saddest part for me was realizing that we only have six weeks of Pirates baseball left. As brutal as this season’s been, it’s still so much better than the off-season.
Probably...
a few more pitching starts available. If Ohlendorf is bad enough to need an MRI…I’d guess he’d miss at least a start or two…and if it is anything of significance…just shut him down. There’s nothing to gain by risking further injury.
Yep....
time to put Gallagher in for 4-6 starts. What the hell. For some reason, other than his complete lack of command, he intrigues me.
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Gallagher's command problems...
…are the type that are best addressed by lots and lots of innings.
That being the case, putting him in the rotation to run out the string is an excellent idea. Either it’ll work, and he’ll have value for next year, or it won’t, and we can cut bait with a clean conscience.
Since there was discussion of Pirates' defenses above:
Here are our team ranks, per UZR, in every year that Duke has spent with the Pirates:
2005: 21st, -11.4
2006: 29th, -54.9
2007: 21st, -21.3
2008: 22nd, -26.2
2009: 5th, +31.2
2010 (to date): 28th, -34.1
So. The one year in Duke’s Pirate career when we’ve had a defense that wasn’t bottom-of-the-barrel is the year that he posted his best full-season ERA and made the All-Star team. Gee. Who’d’ve thunk it?
It actually goes even deeper than that, though. Let’s look at Duke’s monthly ERA splits in 2009:
March/April: 2.43
May: 2.98
June: 3.83
July: 3.67
August: 5.76
September/October: 5.84
So. He’s putting up ERAs in the 2s and 3s until the end of July. Then we subtract Jack and Freddy and Nyjer, and add Delwyn Young and Garrett Jones. And what happens? His ERA goes right into the shitter. I wonder whether there’s a connection…
Except for the fact that i just went back and looked at a ton of data
on Duke’s BIP this year. What a found is a whole lot of balls hit through the hole on the left side, and have yet to see a single example of one play involving Jones or Young. Watching tonight’s game, it is all bleeders through the whole at short or bloopers. I’m sure a better defense would help him, but I fear now based on watching a bunch of his starts that all it would do is turn him from bad to mediocre. He is just frightfully hittable and a lot of the hits I am seeing no one can get to.

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