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Now we know more about attendance and income

by JRoth95 on Aug 24, 2010 2:02 PM EDT

Last year I was in a few discussions centered around income increases from competitive clubs. Thanks to the leaked docs, we now have data with relatively hard numbers attached. Because things aren't broken down very finely (and because I have real work to do), I'm just focusing on four numbers: attendance, gate receipts, concessions, and ballpark operations.

I'd love to post the spreadsheet I've worked up, but I don't know how, so instead I'll leave you to look up all the digits yourselves. The bottom line is that in 2007, the Pirates made $19.68 + $4.08 in admissions and concessions per attendee (on 1.75M attendance), and in 2008 they made $19.97 + $5.15 per attendee (on 1.61M). Ballpark operations (which are around $10 per attendee) were actually higher in '08 than in '07 (that may have been the year they repainted the steel, iirc), and certainly don't seem to be related in a linear fashion to attendance (which makes sense - all but the last 100 minimum wage employees come to every single game). Incidentally, the Mariners in Safeco Field have significantly lower costs on higher attendance; I'm not sure what to make of that, but it reinforces my sense that operations are only tenuously related to attendance.

Speculation for the future below the jump.

First, let's just do a straight line extrapolation: what happens if the team sells out every game? Using round numbers, that's 3M attendance, and revenues of about $75M (up from $40M in '07 and '08). Based on what seems to be the case with operations, I"m going to assume only a 25% increase in expenses, which gets us to $21M, for a net increase of $30M (the team nets around $24M right now). So the team could increase payroll by $30M if they thought the result would be sellouts.

But of course the team hasn't raised ticket prices in years and years. The year after the team passes .500, I guarantee that tickets go up. How much? Let's say an average increase of 20%, to $24/attendee (which is still low for the league). That puts a damper on the rise in attendance, plus means that concession spending stays flat (although in reality I bet that merch sales go up - people need their Pedro jerseys), plus they haven't won anything yet, so let's posit a 2.1M attendance. That gets them a net increase of $19M without a huge increase in attendance.

The next year - call it 2014 - they're division favorites, in a tight race with the Cards and Reds all summer. Sellouts, plus a bump up in suites revenues (no PR blowback, and companies are willing to spend for the hottest ticket in town), plus another 10% in concessions, and I could see a net PNC Park income of $72M, up from ~$24M now. Almost $50M in increased income, and that's before licensing, playoff money, and whatever other halo effects might accrue. Now, that's best case scenario, but it's promising, no?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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2014 attendance and income

So, compared to their competition, will the Pirates be better off, worse off, or about the same with respect to the resources available to them for the purpose of fielding a competitive team?

Lino Donoso

by Lino Donoso on Aug 24, 2010 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

Great question

that unfortunately we can’t answer, partly because no one else in the NLC had their books leaked. Based purely on ballpark income, we do see that the difference between mediocre attendance and sellouts is tens of millions, so a team that’s already had enough success to be able to count on ticket sales will have a leg up. But the Cubs sell out nearly every game regardless of performance, so (in addition to all their other advantages) they always have that in their pockets (although I imagine their ballpark operations are significantly higher, and concessions lower, than the Pirates’). St. Lo will be able to match our attendance income pretty much every year (barring an unexpected long losing period – they’re baseball fans out there, not masochists). But MIL, CIN, and (to a lesser extent) HOU will all be behind us except in the midst of winning stretches.

I’ve always heard that the Pirates do pretty well in local broadcast revenue, and have continued to hear that with the release of these numbers, so we probably also have that ahead of CIN and MIL. I bet that HOU is a wash, and St Lo comparable (probably a bit more, as their fanbase stretches up the Missouri River, iirc). It will probably help the Pirates that, after a 2011 that shows a potentially competitive club (I hope), 93.7 will be bidding aggressively against 104.7 for the broadcast rights. FSN is the only game in town for TV, but they will probably want to have the rights to broadcast 162 games in the event of a playoff contender, so that pot may get a bit richer (I don’t know when that contract is up).

Bottom line, I think the Pirates can actually earn revenues on par with everyone in the division except the Cubs, but the Cards will have a bit more revenue and a bit more certainty (they can bank on 85% attendance in a bigger ballpark, whereas Coonelly would be foolish to assume 85% attendance until it happens). Needless to say, we’ll never have the revenue of the Phils, Mets, or Dodgers, and never have the (near-)certainty of the Giants or Braves.

by JRoth95 on Aug 25, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions