FanPost

Anyone else think Neyer's being a schmuck?

In this piece, stating that Pedro's not Rookie of the Year material. Now, to be clear, I think he's right on that point: barring an amazing September, Pedro has simply not been the best rookie in the NL, nor is he obviously close. He continues to have long cold stretches, and his defense certainly doesn't make up for any offensive shortcomings. But this:

Essentially, if everything works out for Heyward he'll be in the Hall of Fame someday, and if everything works out for Alvarez he'll play in a couple of All-Star Games.

is just crap. I don't know about the HoF claim – although it sounds an awful lot like someone still hasn't gotten over April – but the idea that Pedro's ceiling is "a couple of All Star Games" is stupid. Pedro's HR pace is 1 per 22 AB; Heyward's is 1 per 28. Among active players, that puts Pedro between Jorge Posada and Carlos Beltran; Heyward is Jacque Jones and Austin Kearns. There's a lot more to life than HR/AB, but in terms of HR power, one of these things is not like the other (their overall ISO are .174 and .190, edge to JH).

Point being, Pedro's ceiling is perennial All Star - if the guy hits 40 HR a year, which is certainly well within the realm of likelihood, then he's in, pretty much regardless of his K rate or fielding*. As for the Hall of Fame, well, Heyward is just .200 OPS behind the age 21 seasons of Ted Williams, Eddie Mathews, and Albert Pujols. So maybe Neyer's getting just a bit ahead of himself there.

 

* All of this setting aside that the best Pirate gets into the ASG every year; but I'm taking Neyer to mean an All Star on the merits, not merely as the obligatory Pirate

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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