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The one where we rush to judge Pedro and Posey




Is anyone else watching Posey this season (or have him on their fantasy team) and think maybe the Pirates should have taken him before Pedro?

 

We could have then used the Sanchez pick on a prep arm or else drafted both and moved one or traded him.  We would have either Andy, NW, Pearce or player x there at the moment, with Posey catching, and if we still were as bad, just keep the seat warm for Rendon eventually.  I know hindsight is 20 20 and it's way to early to rush to judgement about this, but it seems like Pedro's ceiling might be Adam Dunn-ish.  Anyone feel like maybe Posey shoulda been the choice knowing what we know now?  I asked Keith Law (known to be not high on Pedro) today and got a  response

Alex NY Bucco (NY)

Hindsight, or even if you thought so at the time...should Pirates have taken Posey over Alvarez?

Klaw   (2:14 PM)

I had Posey ranked over Alvarez. I think I had Alvarez fourth among guys available to the Pirates behind Posey, Smoak, and Hosmer.

 

UPDATE:  Posey, who is hitting .100 better  and OPS'ing .160 more than Pedro (in 80 more AB's) also played SS in college, so it's safe to say he could handle 2nd and probably 3rd with his quickness and arm.  I think what no one really saw coming was his power.  he was supposed to be a line drive hitter yet has 10 HR and is slugging .516 in 292 AB

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Dunn

Adam Dunn is a very valuable baseball player, albeit one with an unusually skewed skill set. If Dunn had played on better teams he’d be held in much higher regard.

Plus, whereas Dunn is a negative fielder no matter where you put him on the field, Pedro’s showing at third thus far leads me to believe he’ll be a slightly subpar 3B or a slightly above-average 1B for years to come. That’s more valuable than a RF/1B with no range.

What I’m saying is, I think Pedro will turn out to be a better player than Dunn, but if he can hit & walk like Dunn with marginally more value in the field, that’s a very very good player to have.

The actual answer to your question is no, knowing what we know now I would still take Pedro. Maybe in another year or two I’ll feel differently.

by Garrett122 on Aug 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

What’s the point to this sort of masochism? I mean, if we had drafted a guy that never made it to the majors instead of Posey, you could really get upset about it. But come on, this is a guy that’s already in the majors and holding his own. Does he have some holes in his game? Sure. But I don’t think there is any good that can come from comparing him to Posey when neither has played a full season.

by mak_DC on Aug 26, 2010 2:47 PM EDT reply actions  

What’s the point to this sort of masochism?

The team is awful, the draft is over, so is the signing deadline, and I dont feel like talking about income statements, loan interest or debt being converted into equity.

Also I cant help but notice the goose eggs next to Pedro’s name always under Tabata’s 2-4

I see Posey’s stats every day (fantasy) and was trying to remember who went ahead of him, only to go back and remember that we took Pedro that year.

RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.

"I'D BE A CHEF"

-TONY PLUSH

by GTrain on Aug 26, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know

But I do know that, at the time, I was kind of pulling for Posey over Alvarez. I don’t know that I had any better reason than thinking it was a good idea to get a top 5 catcher if he was available. There’s clearly not enough data yet to be decisive either way, but Posey has certainly shown himself to be worthwhile. As one would hope, the #4 overall pick was a no-lose position.

by JRoth95 on Aug 26, 2010 2:57 PM EDT reply actions  

“No lose”, eh? Sounds like a challenge Mr Littlefield might be up to!

by matskralc on Aug 27, 2010 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, it’s too early. Even if Posey is ultimately better there’s a good chance we won’t regret picking Alvarez.

by TravisDW on Aug 26, 2010 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Based on the performance so far...

…I obviously wasn’t as high on Posey at the time of the draft as I should have been.

by Vlad on Aug 26, 2010 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Posey has had a great season

But we still need to see how things work out… especially being a catcher, he’s going to be under significant strain… he might, but its not a slam dunk that he’ll keep this level of offensive performance up over the next 3 years… let’s see.

Also, Smoak should serve as a cautionary tale to some extent… sure isn’t looking so hot now huh?

by BurgherKing on Aug 26, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I still think...

…Smoak’s going to be fine in the long run.

by Vlad on Aug 26, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1 for the Friends style episode title.

I think Pedro has more offensive upside than anyone on Law’s list. I’m starting to agree with VLad though that I don’t think he has the ability to be league average at 3rd so the question is how good can his defense be at first. This may not happen until 2012 but the question needs to be asked because or IF defense is just awful.

by Slick1 on Aug 26, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

+1 for the friends style too

i forgot to mention it in my post…

we should make it more of a habit!

by BurgherKing on Aug 26, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im not down on pedro

I think he’ll be really good, I just wonder if Posey might be able to give you 2/3 of the HR’s with an extra 50 -75 points of BA and better D

I would consider Posey probably better than Pedro at 1B, with likelyhood of playing a solid 3B. Plus he’s a good catcher.

RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.

"I'D BE A CHEF"

-TONY PLUSH

by GTrain on Aug 26, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re-ranking them...

I’d probably go Posey, Pedro, Hosmer, Smoak…

Never been big on Smoak, just a personal thing. Add on the fact that if Texas really thought they had a perrenial All-Star power hitter, I doubt they would’ve made him available for Lee.

by jlk9697 on Aug 26, 2010 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

They didn't want to make him available.

Fought against it tooth and nail – only gave in when the Yanks were close to moving Montero for him.

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I supported Pedro over Posey and Smoak at the time, but it was a tough call. The Ks concerned me, but the Pirates desperately needed POWER and Pedro seemed the surest bet to provide it .

by bolton on Aug 26, 2010 5:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Small sample size FTW

Let’s wait until they each have a couple of seasons under their belts.

Of the other players that KLaw had ranked ahead of Pedro, Hosmer hasn’t yet made the majors and Smoak has an OPS+ of 67.

by DG Lewis on Aug 26, 2010 6:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Jayson Stark gave an interesting tidbit on Posey in his Rumblings and Grumblings column today. Posey has over 300 ML plate appearances. The next time he pops out to an infielder…will be the first one. Don’t know how accurate that is…but if it’s true…wow.

by Thunder on Aug 26, 2010 9:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not sure Pedro is ever going to be as good

as expected. He’ll show solid power, but the rest of it reeks of strikeouts, slumps and bad defense. His body type isn’t going to age well, either. We’ll let him go as soon as he is free to go, and I’m betting we do it with little regret.

by RichieHebner on Aug 27, 2010 2:12 AM EDT reply actions  

The problem with the question about who the Pirates should have drafted is that Pedro, by many accounts, was the second-best player available in the draft. Sure, there were certain individuals (Keith Law, most notably) who had Pedro ranked lower, but the consensus was that Alvarez was only behind Strasburg overall.

If the Pirates hadn’t drafted him, going instead for Posey or Smoak or Hosmer, they would have been accused by the Yinzer crowd of going the cheap route and not taking the best player available. We can’t sit here and say “well, based on the results of one-half season’s worth of data, damn, the Pirates sure screwed that pick up and should have taken Posey” because no one was clamoring for Posey on draft day. We all wanted Pedro, and we all would have torn the Pirates to shreds if they hadn’t picked him, saying, “It’s just like Moskos over Wieters all over again.”

Pedro probably won’t be a first-ballot HOFer, but how many guys are? He’s going to hit a good amount of HR, have a mediocre BA and OBP, K a lot and make some E’s, but seriously, lighten up, Francis. Pedro’s going to be just fine.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 27, 2010 7:09 AM EDT reply actions  

This is exactly what I was going to say.

I’m happy to have Pedro, think he will be a very good player. But, I think the Buc’s new FO felt kind of painted into a corner in drafting him. He was the consensus best player available. Even if they personally thought Posey or Hosmer, etc were , better, if they were to convince the masses that they weren’t DL part II, they needed to take Alvarez.

Pedro will probably be a Carlos Pena/Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn type player going forward; hopefully with better D at first than the last 2. I would have no problem having a .260/.370/.525 type guy in the middle of our line-up for the 3 years of Alvarez’s prime.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Aug 27, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

‘We all wanted Pedro, and we all would have torn the Pirates to shreds if they hadn’t picked him, saying, "It’s just like Moskos over Wieters all over again."’

In other word, we all would have been Yinzers for a day.

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 27, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty much

Even the most-diehard fans, whether they will publicly admit it or not, would have been severely pissed if NH had passed on Alvarez. I’ve been a fan since I was six, which coincided with the ’79 World Series team, and I fully support the “plan” that this current FO is unfolding, but I would have been pushed to the limit on believing things were ever going to change had they gone with a player that was not the consensus #2 that year.

There, I said it. I would have been a Yinzer for a day.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 27, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Even the most-diehard fans, whether they will publicly admit it or not, would have been severely pissed if NH had passed on Alvarez.

Not all of them. Right or wrong, I wanted Smoak that year – and was on record at the time as saying so, if you check the archives.

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough.

Since you have a strong and positive reputation on this board and as I find myself frequently enjoying, if not agreeing with your posts, I will decline to check the archives and take you at your word.

In addition, I will issue the following correction, doing so with all sincerity and without any hint of sarcasm. My wife tells me that I need to stop dealing in absolutes (or maybe dealing with Absolut; I’m not quite sure), so I probably overstated the case:

“Most diehard fans (Vlad specifically excluded), whether they will publicly admit it or not, would have been severely pissed if NH had passed on Alvarez.”

by Bishop1973 on Aug 27, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's all good.

A few links, anyway:
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/6/10/904480/day-two-draft-open-thread
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/6/3/897040/news-roundup-pirates-looking-at
Those are two from 2009. I know I talked about him in the run-up to the draft, too, but I can’t lay hands on the link.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2008_mlb_draft_preview_scouting_first_baseman_justin_smoak/
Here’s a link from April 2008 where I talk about loving Smoak, though I don’t explicitly say that he would’ve been my pick.

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's actually kind of funny.

The FO hasn’t gone with my preferred first-round pick in any of the last four drafts. I wanted Machado this year, Shelby Miller last year, Smoak two years ago, and Heyward three years ago. Given the relatively small number of players under consideration, you’d think I would’ve gotten at least one right by pure chance.

I guess being a shill on the team payroll doesn’t mean they have to listen to anything I say. If yinz’ll excuse me, I’m going to go cry into my ill-gotten pile of revenue sharing Krugerrands now.

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

My wife tells me that I need to stop dealing in absolutes (or maybe dealing with Absolut; I’m not quite sure)

SACRILEGE!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 27, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Once they both mature, Alvarez will be more valuable. A .400 wOBA corner infielder who can hit 35 home runs is much more valuable to me than a catcher who hits for good average and not much more. Posey, by the way, his hitting for a .355 BABIP that is bordering on unsustainable. His numbers will go down.

by Suffering Buc on Aug 27, 2010 9:16 AM EDT reply actions  

"400 wOBA corner infielder who can hit 35 home runs"

How confident are you that that’s Pedro’s level of ability? A .400 wOPA is a pretty tall order.

I heard a fair number of Troy Glaus comparisons for Pedro pre-draft, for example, and while Glaus had a very successful career, he only managed a .400 wOBA once (in 2000).

by Vlad on Aug 27, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

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