SB Nation Pittsburgh Editor's Pick
Plugging The Leaks: Pirates Defense Now And In 2011
The Pirates' defense has dropped off quite a bit from several years ago, when we featured the primes of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan. That was before they completely stopped hitting with other teams. Still, the current Bucs could reverse course on run prevention with a couple of additions and position changes.
All the defensive statistics are still on Fangraphs.com, but I'll take a more traditional look in this post. Metrics like UZR are still experimental, and there's not enough data for most of these young players anyway. They fit into three general categories based on my take: poor, below-average to decent, or solid.
Poor defenders:
Ryan Doumit, C: Passed balls and stolen bases have become much worse. Slow release to 2nd base without any accuracy most times. Makes a weak effort to block balls in the dirt sometimes.
Ryan Doumit, OF: Limited range, moves very tentatively on flyballs in his general direction. Average arm for an outfielder. He could improve a bit with more repetition, but he'll be 30 so I wouldn't count on it.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B: Limited range for third base. He's booted or whiffed on a lot of routine balls in play, hands have been below average. Excellent arm strength and good accuracy.
Garrett Jones, 1B: He's booted plenty of easy shots as well. Poor range, poor throwing arm. He's decent in scooping throws out of the dirt, which is nice.
Decent or probably below-average defenders:
Neil Walker, 2B: Slightly below-average range, but makes plays on at least some of the balls hit to him. Good arm for the position. Slow at turning double plays. He has some basic fielding issues and 2B-specific problems.
Chris Snyder, C: He's decent at blocking balls, and generally calls a good game. He can't control the running game, though, and he might even be worse than Doumit at framing pitches.
Lastings Milledge, OF: His defensive tools are league-average, but the mental errors are costly. UZR is around 0 this year, but the gaffes combined with the overall career defense numbers don't give me confidence that he's good.
Ronny Cedeno, SS: The physical tools are here, but like Milledge, he's prone to lapses. He started the first month or so as a Jack Wilson clone, and the quality of fielding has gone downhill from there. Lackluster career numbers.
Garrett Jones, OF: He plays adequately here, but the range isn't enough to go higher. His arm isn't much, either. He's the third-best outfielder on the roster, though. Looking ahead, he's almost 30, so the defense could drop.
Solid defenders:
Jose Tabata, OF: Pretty good. The arm plays very well, and he gets to enough balls in play with solid range for an OF. He has annoying moments like standing and watching catchable balls hit the wall, but overall is fine.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: He's a young rising superstar in CF...but the metrics don't agree. Hmmm. He's had a couple of misplays this year. He covers a tremendous amount of ground in center. Cutch is the only player with Gold-Glove upside on the team.
***
Overall, two positions are solid and one position is making a lot of money (catcher), so those are set. I'm not confident in Alvarez or Walker becoming good at their current slots, so I think it makes some sense, this offseason, to put them in more natural positions of first for Alvarez and third for Walker. Walker would be more comfortable at third, because of his experience there. He also wouldn't have to turn double plays and his range is a better match. Alvarez would have fewer chances at first base.
Looking to improve at 2B and SS, I'd check if Iwamura is healthy and in good shape by next year and see if he'd be a cheap option. If he still stinks (which is likely given age and weight) I'd maybe check in on a Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson. Kelly Johnson and Chris Getz are trade options if the prices aren't outrageous.
Dumping Cedeno isn't mandatory, but it might be good if you look for a shortstop like Jerry Hairston, maybe Nick Punto or J.J. Hardy on the Twins if there's a logjam, Jason Bartlett (potential payroll dump by Rays), maybe a Cristian Guzman or Jed Lowrie.
After the infield is fixed, right field is still a mess. I don't know. Ryan Doumit is probably the best hitter for that on the roster, but his defense is bad. Signing Brad Hawpe or Mike Cuddyer would be the same as playing Doumit twice. The best fits like David DeJesus and Coco Crisp have cheap options that will be picked up by Kansas City and Oakland, and they won't let go of nice players for free. I think the plan will be to primarily use Doumit in the outfield with sprinkles of Jones/Milledge/Bowker/whoever.
2011 example:
C: Chris Snyder
1B: Pedro Alvarez
2B: Orlando Hudson
3B: Neil Walker
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Jose Tabata
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Ryan Doumit or someone else if we're lucky
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I'd like to see Jason Bartlett in a Pirate uniform
Cedeno is a utility inf on a decent team.
by BadAndy on Aug 30, 2010 7:17 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe I'm being naive
but I don’t see the limited range for Pedro Alvarez that people talk about. He seems athletic enough to get to balls and, like you mentioned, has a good arm. He passes the eye test for me, and I believe the botched routine balls can improve.
Same with Walker—he should be atheltic enough to handle second for a long time, and his bat is valuable there. Move him to third and if he doesn’t hit .310 he’s pretty vanilla.
Same here. I really don't think Pedro is doing anyone any favors on defense.
He’s going to need to really step up his offense next year if he’s going to keep botching plays at 3rd like he did this year.
Agreed with Vlad, Bluecheer
Pedro is more athletic than he looks.
He occasionally makes the terrific play and has a nice arm.
But he’s destined to be a 1b. If the Pirates are going to improve short term, the defense must get much, much better.
Put Pedro at First. Go with Walker at third. See if you can get Hardy or Bartlett to upgrade SS. Let Cedeno compete for 2b.
I like Walker at 2nd.
I think he’s done a great job this year, and will only get better over the next few. We’ll probably need an upgrade at SS (due to Cedeno’s iffy offense) and I sort of agree that we should try Pedro at 1st. I didn’t like this idea previously, but he’s duffed a lot of plays lately, which has changed my mind. Then of course we’ll need someone at 3rd, and I don’t think LaRoche is the answer there.
He's done a great job with the bat.
With the glove, not so much.
The question is whether his current level of defense is all we can expect from him, or whether he can improve to average-ish.
Eh, I guess I can see that.
Don’t you think he can improve on that, though?
Where do you see Walker on the field in the future?
He might be able to improve.
I just think that we’d likely do better, on the whole, by moving Pedro to 1B, Walker to 3B, and finding a new 2B, than we would by moving Pedro to 1B, leaving Walker at 2B, and finding a new 3B.
But if we come up with a great 3B option from somewhere and want to give Walker one more year to acclimate at 2B, that’d be OK, too.
What I really like about moving Pedro
to 1B is that it could possibly free up Jones to be a RF/1B backup and maybe a RF platoon
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Cool, good deal.
I’d agree on that for the most part, but I really like the idea of Walker at 2nd. But if another option could work, that’d be great of course.
Why do you hate freedom?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
People act like Walker is a career second baseman. He’s never played the position at all until this year. Considering he’s pretty much learned on the fly between AAA and MLB, I think he’s pretty much as well as one could expect. There’s room for improvement, but I think that improvement will come with more reps at the position.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Walker should stay at 2nd
Walker’s natural position is catcher, not 3rd, and while his defense has been praised at 3rd, it would be a very tough switch to do in the majors. Walker’s bat is also better suited for 2nd base, because he would be below average at 3rd.
Pedro could move to 1st, but then we would not be able to use Jones/Clement/Pearce at 1st next year. I don’t know if the defense would be worth the sacrifice in offense.
Moving Pedro to first
takes away his best (and according to some, only) defensive tool, that cannon of his.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
i believe that
clement and pearce will both be out of options. wouldnt be surprised if they dont even make it out of spring training
How much offense would we be sacrificing??
Jones has a .717 OPS this season. 1B is the worst offensive position on the team this season (numbers for whoever is playing 1B show their OPS below .620).
I kind of have to disagree with the idea...
…of Walker’s natural position being catcher. It was his first position, to be sure, but his defensive grades from scouts at the time he was moved were absolutely terrible.
I think Doumit is on his way
out of town. With his decreased playing time coupled with his disagreements with the FO, I don’t see any way he’s in Bradenton from spring training. I also think that walker should stay at 2nd. His bat doesn’t play nearly as well at third, and Alvarez is still young with a pretty athlethic base.
Doumit
The only way he’s not in Bradenton is if the Pirates eat nearly the whole contract.
Nobody is trading for him.
Do you think we could send him to the AL as a DH?
He’d have to improve his hitting of course, but I feel like that’s pretty much where he’s destined to go.
No.
His bat is strong enough to give him significant value as a C, or some value as a 1B/OF. Nobody trades for a $5M veteran DH with a 100-ish OPS+.
Well...
the Rangers went out and signed your namesake for $6.5 million after he put up a 106 OPS+ at age 34. It isn’t like it is impossible that someone would see value in Doumit as a DH for $5 million and maybe give something back if the Pirates were to eat some salary.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Well ...
I’m assuming everyone had a chance to claim him on waivers and every MLB team passed.
Also, Vlad is at the nadir of his career.
But he was once an all-star hitter. Doumit is just Doumit.
DT
Yes, I know Vlad played out his option with the Angels and signed a deal with the Rangers during the off season.
I was talking about Doumit and the lack of market for his services. We are stuck with him. I’m assuming the Bucs put him on waivers and nobody claimed him. He’s not going anywhere unless the Pirates release him or pick up nearly the entire contract in a trade.
Vlad was once a great player, and he’s still useful in the Rangers lineup and park. I was trying to say that I don’t think the Vlad comparison is a good one. Vlad was a great player. Doumit was an average one.
Vlad....
wasn’t a great player at 34, was aging quickly and generally I think people were surprised at his early season success. He was great in the first half and terrible since. Doumit is 29 and has his problems as well, but I don’t think Vlad being a great player in the past is all that important.
Ken Griffey Jr was a great player, Andruw Jones was a great player…..eventually age hits them all and most certainly bet age would hit Vlad hard. He still got $6.5.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Just a difference of opinion ...
I hope you are right and someone values Doumit as the Rangers did Vlad.
But I just don’t think it’s likely.
I think Doumit is going to be a year to year player after his contract expires.
The larger point....
is he had a 100-ish OPS+ and at age 34 is clearly in the decline phase of his career. Somebody paid him $6.5 million to be their DH.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
DT
Again, I’d disagree. Vlad was once a great player. He chose to sign with a good team in a great park.
I just don’t see anyone seeing Doumit in the same light. I hope you are right.
But it’s interesting that no one put in a waiver claim. I suspect because every team knew the Pirates would let him go.
He’ll be in Pittsburgh next year unless he’s released or the Pirates take back another bad contract.
Do you know.....
for sure that he was put on waivers or just speculating? It would be a terrible PR move to just let him walk for nothing. Pure salary dump would get killed, particularly with the financial info recently being leaked.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Being put on trade waivers doesn’t mean they have to let him go. They CAN let him go if he clears trade waivers…but they don’t have to. It just gives the Pirates the ability to trade him during August and September. I’d just about bet that everyone outside of the young guns went through waivers this month.
Trade waivers
As Vlad and Thunder note, nearly every player goes on trade waivers in August.
Teams generally don’t announce who went through trade waivers unless the guy is claimed. Example: Mike Napoli this week.
But it is highly unlikely that the Pirates didn’t pass Doumit through them.
Moreover, since he has negative value, I can guarantee the Pirates would let him go for nothing.
And I doubt the Pirates would care about the negative PR any more than the Dodgers did with Manny.
I’d be much more concerned with the $6 million cost savings.
Sure, he put up a 106 last year.
But he had a 130 the year before, and a 147 the year before that. The Rangers were banking (correctly, as it turned out) on a rebound from him.
If 106 had been his established level of ability, they never would’ve made the move.
In addition ...
he moved to a much more favorable park.
I think nearly every team would have preferred Vlad over Doumit in the off season.
That's the idea ...
but I don’t think he hits enough. And he’s far too expensive.
Well, that or...
…he plays well and rehabs his trade value. Which is a much more palatable option, in my book.
When I first saw Bartlett's name
I thought, surely, there’s no way that happens. And yet… It’s entirely possible they believe Brignac can be their shortstop for the long term and find another second baseman. Then again, his strikeout rate is 27.5% this year, although the walks are almost to 6% as well.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Walker will quickly become a staple at 2B
You must remember that he only got thrust into the position this year and he has held his own at the MLB level. There is much to be said about that. In Spring Training Mazeroski will get ahold of him and we will start to see a star develop at 2B. If he continues to hit the way he does, 2B is locked down for the future.
Alvarez should stay at 3B...
Until someone with far greater defensive talent at 3B appears and I don’t see that coming for awhile.
+ 1
I was just about to write a similar point when my manager came over to my cube to discuss a contract I’m working on. Stupid lack of office or doors for privacy!
As long as Rendon’s ankle is healthy, the Pirates have to draft him, which makes moving Pedro to first a much easier pill to swallow. They can’t replace Pedro with Walker, who is a nice 2B but offensively-deficient 3B, or another Andy LaRoche (or Andy LaRoche himself).
The upside of that move is that it would enable them to either move Garrett Jones back to RF or to move him to the bench, which may be the place he is better suited at this point in time. His deficiencies are becoming evident, showing why he spent so long in the minors; we probably have seen the top of Mount Garrett and are on the down slope at this point.
I mentioned that in post a couple days ago
I also think the Angel’s have too many SS’s and wonder what the price tag would be for E.A.
by hilltoppeer on Aug 30, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know enough about the Angel's
to know who they really love and want to hold on to. I just always hear on SC about Izturis, and Alberto Callaspo, and Erik Aybar along with howie kendrik at second. I would think they would probably want Wood as 3b even with his struggles, so someone should be expendable when Morales comes back. but IDK just spitballing with research, the littlefield way.
by hilltoppeer on Aug 30, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Wasn't discounting the possibility of a deal.
Just thought that it was an important piece of context: That we’d talked to them about shortstops, and that they wanted more than whatever Jones was worth a month-and-a-half ago in exchange for Izturis.
and your one of 3 people on this blog that I wouldn't argue with
I was just saying I like the player, and I wish that would happen.
by hilltoppeer on Aug 30, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Relatedly,
I freaking LOVE the word “rebuffed.”
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
LaRoche ...
has far better defensive talent.
I like Pedro. But if the Bucs are going to get into the high 70s in wins next year, they have to improve the defense.
The team is much better defensively with LaRoche or Walker at 3b and Alvarez at 1b.
Definitely ...
but I think the fielding statistics rate LaRoche as far, far better than Alvarez.
I’m also pretty confident that Pedro would be far better than Jones at 1b.
but what about laroche's bat, or lack therefore of?
if we draft Rendon, i can actually see this working temporarily because i dont believe
rendon would be in the minors long at all.
Rendon
I’d obviously rather have Rendon than LaRoche.
But that’s not an option for next April.
I’d love to see an upgrade in the position in the offseason, allowing Pedro to go to first.
But if we are improving defense, which is a critical need with the current pitching staff, we need better defenders. And LaRoche is better than Alvarez.
Finally, I think LaRoche was a 2 WAR last year. I know he’s been hideous this year. But if we have to compensate some hitting for much improved defense, I would.
That being said, LaRoche would need to hit dramatically better that what we’ve seen this year to start.
laroche is a pull hitter
with very little power now, and PNC is killing him. he had his chance. alvarez can win more games with his power than laroche can save games with his glove.
You miss my point
The Pirates are, I believe, a better defensive team with LaRoche at 3b and Alvarez at 1b.
I think GJ’s modest production is outweighed by his weak glove.
I think the choice is between LaRoche and Jones, not Alvarez.
And I think the Bucs must improve their defense if they are going to win games.
Or
we could lose one of our soft tossing lefties (Duke) and replace him with a strikeout pitcher. That would decrease Pedro’s usage rate at 3B, lessening the defensive impact.
Duke is under team control and relatively affordable.
There’s no guarantee that we’d be able to get a strikeout-heavy pitcher of equivalent ability to sign with us, and if we did, we’d definitely be paying through the nose for him.
Yes, but
any upgrade in K ability would help, and that’s not hard to find when replacing Duke. Even just being Right handed would help on paper as we’d be facing more left handed batters. Also, losing Duke’s $5m makes overpaying somewhat for a FA starter not hurt so much. The trade market is also another option. I’m just pointing out another way of upgrading the D is all, as I’m ok with moving Pedro and looking for a 3B also.
Which
“strikeout pitcher” did you have in mind as a replacement?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
holes
Besides the holes with the defense, hitting/scoring runs and the horrible pitching, this team is set for next year. Go Nutting Prospects
Let's say Nutting fires NH today, and comes to you BFD1..
Gives you financial and transaction freedom to do whatever you want.
Lay out your plan for the team.
First off, you are in lala land. Nutting providing the GM with financial freedom. HA
2nd, NEal has already set the team back with his horrible trades, but I would go out and pay for legit pitchers as a start. This pathetic team will need to OVER pay for talent at this point becasue NOone but people on this board believes this team is tying to win.
In short, continue building though the draft, but also try to win at the MLB level. It doesn’t have to be either/or. It can be both.
All…. and continue to sign Indian reality show contestants….. that works very well…..
Fair enough
I’m not asking this to be argumentative, but since you raised it as an option, I will ask who you see in the upcoming class of FA pitchers as “legit” and how much would you feel is reasonable to pay based on the expected performance they will bring to the Pirates.
Please try to be specific rather than “any of them” and “whatever they want;” if you feel it is legitimate to pay Bronson Arroyo $12MM per year for the next 4 years, just say that.
Don't hold your breath waiting for his answers
This is the point where BFD1 hears his mom calling him and has to leave.
I'm surprised
bishop got one answer out of him.
Bishop
To be honest. I do not claim to be an expert or a GM in training. It is Neals job to put together a team to compete. He has done a horrible job at doing this, but has been hamstrung by Nuttings scrooge-like payroll.
All I know is this MLB team has gotten worse each year he has been in charge. 29 other teams find ways to NOT look like little leaguers out there. Sure. Most teams have down years, but this organization has had down years for 2 decades (14 of them attached to Nutting) and they look worse than I can ever remember.
In short, this is not MY job to come up with a plan of action, however upping payroll to where other similar markets are sure can’t make the team worse.
"14 of them attached to Nutting"
Yes, because he had so much power as a minority partner under McClatchy.
"upping payroll to where other similar markets are sure can’t make the team worse"
Matt Morris on Line 1
Jeromy Burnitz on Line 2
Joe Randa on Line 3
Kip Wells, Line 4
Kevin Young, paging Kevin Young
by DG Lewis on Aug 30, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pat Meares? Bell? Mondesi?
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 30, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Hilarious!
Don’t forget Jason Kendall’s extension, either (even though it wasn’t all that bad at the time of the signing).
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
But you say that you “would go out and pay for legit pitchers,” then follow that by saying, “this is not MY job to come up with a plan of action…”
Have you ever considered that maybe why they don’t go out and pay for legit pitchers is because they have done their due diligence and determined that the ROI for FA pitchers is insufficient? Since pitching is at such a premium, there is a reason those players hit free agency and are not locked up by the teams that currently have them: they aren’t worth what they want. Overspending just to artificially inflate payroll isn’t going to help the situation any.
There was a recent interview with Mark Attanasio where he basically admits that the Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf and Doug Davis signings were mistakes and that the Brewers, who most people use as the measuring stick for the Pirates, would not be pursuing those types of FAs in the future. If the Brewers have figured it out the hard way, maybe the Pirates are better off not pursuing that course of action.
""this is not MY job to come up with a plan of action…""
…but how else could he duck the question?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn’t your job to go on making conspiracy theories about why the team is terrible, either. We leave that for the AP writers.
But, to be honest, upping payroll just to up payroll seems like a dumb idea to me. For the simple sake of “looking like they’re trying”, it can be a foolish endeavor. A better approach would be, say, signing the young guns to contract extensions when the time is right.
Yawn
“it’s not my job to discuss specifics, it’s my job to bitch about payroll and post the same damn thing 50,000 times in a row blah blah blah”
Next time, instead of taking 200 characters to say “Nitting Is Cheap”, just put NIC in the subject block and you’ll save everyone some time.
If someone would like to give me a job discussing specifics...
…I’d totally be down with that. Very reasonable rates! Inquire within!
Nutting is too cheap
to pay for you, Vlad.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
So in other words...
You feel free to toss around statements like, “the Buccos need to spend more money” and “they need to try and win at the MLB level”, but then refuse to back up those statements with intelligent ways to do so?
The young guys need to play and learn, and that’s going to mean losses for awhile. I’d rather have that than to sign a bunch of retreads to try and create an illusion that the team is better than it is.
I’ll never understand the hatred of the Nutting/Huntington regime while the much, much, much worse McClatchy/Littlefield regime got a free pass. Hey, be critical of the current bunch – they deserve to be criticized AND praised based on their choices. But too many already have their mind set on the cheapness of Nutting and incompetence of Huntington that they refuse any logic or fact that disproves it.
So… either give some logical explanation on what could be done (with supporting facts), or stop the noise, please.
Interesting that despite your assertion that you “do not claim to be an expert or GM training” when asked about specifics, you seem to consider yourself plenty qualified to assess the moves the Pirates HAVE made in the last three years. How does that work exactly?
Well assessing the trades & moves
Is easy…100+ losses=suck
Yet it’s been proven that, if no trades were made, this team would be four games worse in the standings. And that isn’t even touching upon the players in AA that have become top ten prospects.
Look, I jerk your chain and for good reason, but stop being so damn stubborn and see where we’re coming from. We aren’t idiots, and we don’t like the losing any more than you do.
...and
we don’t need to hear it 5 times a week, with no coherent ideas as to how it might be otherwise…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
But seriously, which trades do you not like, which trades do you like, and why? Is that something you’re willing respond to in detail?
Furthermore what organization would consider to be a model for how the Pirates should operate?
Is that something you’re willing respond to in detail?
dingdingdingding!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you know what a rebuild plan is all about?
Apparently not. The MLB team was terrible, the minors system was worse when Huntington took over. The best thing he could have done was blow it up completely and restock.
This team lost with Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and Jason Bay. As they’ve proven, they can also lose without them. The big difference is that as a result of all the trades and draft strategy this franchise now has hope, something it has lacked for nearly 2 decades.
And please spare me the argument about this being the 2nd or 3rd rebuilding plan… prior to Huntington there never was a serious effort to rebuild. Bonifay and Littlefield just kept slapping band-aids on gaping wounds, and wondered why the bleeding never stopped.
hear, hear.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Who's in lala land?
“…set the team back with his horrible trades” – so you want a lineup of Nate McLouth (.544 OPS) in center, Nyjer Morgan (.637 OPS) in left, Jack Wilson (.598 OPS) at short, Freddy Sanchez (.707 OPS) at second, Xavier Nady (.699 OPS) at first, and Ronny Paulino (.655 OPS, suspended 50 games) behind the plate? I’ll even give you Jose Bautista at third and Jason Bay in right – that team is about 4 wins worse than the current Pirates:
(All values prorating as if the “traded” Pirates had played a full season, and the current Pirates play the rest of the season.)
LF: Morgan -2 WAR, Tabata 2.5 WAR: Current Pirates +4.5
CF: McLouth -3.6 WAR, McCutchen 2.8 WAR: Current Pirates +6.4
RF: Bay 0.9 WAR, Millege/Doumit -0.7 WAR: Current Pirates -1.6
1B: Nady -2.5 WAR, Jones/Clement -1.6 WAR: Current Pirates +0.9
2B: Sanchez 1 WAR, Walker 1.4 WAR: Current Pirates +0.4
SS: Wilson 1 WAR, Cedeno 1 WAR: even
3B: Bautista 6 WAR, Alvarez -0.5 WAR: Current Pirates -5.5
C: Paulino 0.6 WAR, Snyder 1.0 WAR: Current Pirates +0.4
Total: Your Pirates 1.4 WAR, Current Pirates 5.9 WAR
And your starting pitchers would be Maholm, Duke, Gorzo, and … well, I can’t find anyone else who started a game for the Pirates in 07/08 who is still in the majors, besides the pitchers acquired in those horrible trades.
Oh, yes, you’re going to get a couple of legit pitchers in free agency. Who, exactly? And keep in mind, they’re going to have to be 4 wins better than replacement just to break even, because you still have Morgan instead of Tabata and McLouth blocking Cutch.
Yeah, but they would look like they were TRYING to win
Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One
by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 30, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Good posting
I’d use Adam LaRoche and not Nady at 1b, but this is a great post.
Moreover, the only position that we have dramatically downgraded is 3b, and nobody expected the Bautista power surge.
Nyjer Morgan (.637 OPS) in left,
And also on the Nat’s shit list, and being “sat down” for exploding on a catcher and a fan.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Also,
when talking about the Gold Glover, remember – it’s McClouth.
Heh.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
To over-pay for talent...
and miss (Which does happen, believe it or not) would set the team much further back than any of NH’s missed trades. On top of that, how much more we’d have to over-pay is another mystery. If it’s 1-2 million above market value, maybe that would be alright, but if Cliff Lee wants 10 million more to pitch in Pittsburgh, I’m sorry, it’s just not worth it.
Look at the Jeff Suppan disaster in Milwaukee as a good example. I wish we were the Yankees too. It would be great to be able to sign whoever you thought would be a good investment, and if you’re wrong, it’s no big deal. It is a big deal if the Pirates get it wrong though, a very big deal.
It’s all about risk/reward. The risk of paying Cliff Lee a $100 million contract greatly outweighs the reward of taking us from a 60 win to a 70 win team (If all goes spectacularly). This is why we’ve seen NH try the “buy low” card alot.
Also this.
Much how the Steelers and Penguins build from within and avoid huge free agent splashes, the Pirates must also do the same.
Free agency and throwing money at the problem is not the answer.
by titanlord91 on Aug 30, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
on the bright side,
as GM with financial and transaction freedom, you could go back and reaquire all the guys NH traded away in his horrible trades, I’m sure the Mariners, Mets, Giants, Nationals and Braves would be happy to work out deals for Wilson, Snell, Bay, Sanchez, Morgan, McLouth, etc.
Include me on the Neil Walker stay at 2B bandwagon..
I don’t think Neil played much of any 2B before this season, when management was convinced he was a utility guy. As you say, his arm’s pretty good for the position, his bat could potentially be well above average for the position, and he’s athletic enough to improve with more time at the position.
At least for the near future, I think we’d be at a great disadvantage to have Walker at 3rd and Pedro at 1st, unless someone like Andy LaRoche magically could turn into an 2B with power.
Pedro should improve at the position, even if he still remains a below average defender.
Look at Mark Reynolds, .904 fielding percentage in 2008, .945 last season, .947 this season. Pedro’s at .942 right now, which isn’t good, but considering he has had all of 63 games at the hot corner at the MLB Level, I think we can expect at least reasonable improvement next season.
Reynolds has much better range than Pedro, though.
He actually played more SS than 3B in the minors. Can you even imagine Pedro as a SS?
Not at all..
I really can’t imagine Reynolds at SS either though, that’s a bit surprising to hear. Did he fill out considerably since then?
Here's a shot of him in his college days:

Not the traditional shortstop’s body. Looks more like a 3B or a C, with those broad shoulders and stubby legs. And of course, he’s added some mass since then.
Either way, though, he was still working with more on the defensive side of things than Pedro was.
I can imagine it ...
but it’s like hearing Roseanne sing.
I wish I hadn’t.
This was a pretty fair assessment . . .
except, IMO, for Walker. Not much I can add that hasn’t been said already, but I really think Walker has shown flashes of excellence at second, and another year of experience should help hugely. His problems have mostly been issues of inexperience, not athleticism.
Agree on Walker
I think he’s doing alright considering he never really played 2B before this year. My impression is that his UZR was down around -7.5 about a month after he started playing second and he’s been close to league average since then.
If the Pirates could actually sign a 2B like Hudson, I’d be fine with moving Walker, but I don’t think it’s mandatory.
have to disagree about 2 things
1- walkers range is below average?
2- cedeno’s defense has gone downhill.
is this an opinion or do you have numbers or facts for this? if anything, cedeno’s fielding has gotten much better since the trade brung him over. his range is legit and his numbers prove this. this sounds pretty much like another “i wish our hero Jack never left town” kinda post, IMO.
Cedeno’s UZR went from around 7-8 in the first six weeks or so to around 3. Again, I’m not a huge fan of those numbers, but they do match up with him making a lot more mental errors lately.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
cedeno is
a league average shortstop. hes not going to set the world on fire. the biggest problem for him is that he was asked to replace Jack fricken Wilson whom pittsburghers adored. we could do alot worse than Ronny at SS, just ask 15 other teams out there that wished they had his production… thats really sad, aint it? LOL
Maybe 7 or 8 teams wish they had his production.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
BELOW IS A LIST OF TEAMS THAT HAVE EQUAL OR LESSER PRODUCTION AT SS
than the pirates have: atlanta, washington, st louis, cincinnati, houston, milwaukee, arizona, san diego, tampa, boston, baltimore, minnesota, oakland, LAangels and yes SEATTLE… cedeno also has a fielding pct of .980, one of the best in the majors.
I’m with you on some of these. Brewers, Reds, Cards, Orioles, Mariners, Astros. I’d add the Royals and Tigers maybe.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
this is a shock
but betancourt of the Royals is outplaying most of the other SS in MLB… gasp!!!! i know, i had to lie down after typing this.
Not really.
Betancourt’s terrible defense mostly neutralizes whatever value he generates with the bat.
Per Fangraphs, he’s currently tied for 34 among shortstops in WAR, with 0.5.
I agree with most of this.
I don’t think Walker’s range is suspect, I think his experience is limited and his fielding will improve with more reps. He has shown great range at 2nd at times, but like someone said, let Maz have him for a spring and we’ll see if he blossoms. His turns on DPs have to improve.
I think Pedro’s defense is of more concern and I’m anxious to see if a major league job in hand come spring training has any effect – maybe he relaxes and gets more specific instruction since he will be the starter. I have to question why Andy has not been inserted as a defensive replacement late in games we are winning – like Saturday’s game. He was used as a PH when he could have played the field in the 8th-9th. Granted, he is no gold glove, and I’m sure the club wants Pedro to get the experience, but when a game is winnable and it appears to be slipping away, try to win it. There was never a problem running Church out to right in the late innings. I would do the same with catcher when Doumit is behind the plate – winning late in a close game, defensive replacement.
Let's stop with....
the fallacy that Maz is going to Bradenton in the spring and going to have an impact on Neil Walker. Not.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
and why is that?
nobody expects Maz to turn Walker into a HOF 2nd baseman during the spring, but given the discussions we have been having about the lack of instruction this team seems to get, it isn’t hard to assume that a guy who knows as much about playing 2nd as Maz might be able to assist in the development of a guy who really hasn’t played 2nd until this year. If he can show Walker how to turn two a little faster, he has helped him and the team, though I’m sure he can pass along much more info than that. It seems that having guys like Sangy and Bill Virdon and Maz do some instruction in spring training has helped past teams as I have heard players like Spanky and Van Slyke and Freddy say as much. I say it couldn’t hurt.
So is Maz actually planning to work with Walker next spring
or is this discussion only about whether it would help if he did?
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
My understanding is this:
The Pirates invite several former players to spring training every year. They do some instruction and they provide some history/education for the younger players, I guess a sort of mentoring. My point in mentioning it is that I doubt Walker was projected as a 2nd baseman in previous springs, so he probably did not spend any time in the field with Maz to get any tutoring. Maybe he got some – I wasn’t there. But it is clear as the returning player at the position, he will receive more attention this spring.
I don’t suppose that any position player is to survive for a season solely on the lessons learned from a legacy player. More likely, the legacy players are meant to instill pride and perspective to the new professionals and offer a few tips as to how to do things better. I have said that Walker will improve with more reps – he is a quality athlete and isn’t a horrible fielder now. If he can work with the regular fielding instructors and take a thing or two from Maz in the process, that is a good thing. Not every franchise has had a Maz play for them – I think the Pirates are smart to take advantage of his experience and knowledge the way they do.
I guess....
my point is if the guys on the current staff can’t impart that knowledge and aren’t imparting that knowledge currently then organizationally we are in much worse shape than I imagine.
Sure it’s nice to have Maz and the other old-timers show up for a day or two and talk about footwork, etc. But as good as he was at doing it, that doesn’t mean he’s great at teaching it. Perry Hill was never a good middle infielder, yet he’s recognized at being great at coaching the positions.
And why the hell wouldn’t they have Maz in PNC park everyday this summer if they thought he was able to help? He lives in Pittsburgh, he doesn’t have to go to Florida. Why wait until March?
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Yep.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The 13 th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution
doesn’t allow involuntary servitude.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
And yep.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, and another thing
whats with the Snyder is possibly below average defensively, even though he is rated as one of the better catchers in the game by multiple publications? framing pitches? doumit is better at framing pitches??? is that all you can think of? maybe its because Doumit cant MOVE LEFT TO RIGHT TO BLOCK THE PLATE AND HE HAPPENS TO BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE TO CATCH A BALL DOWN THE MIDDLE??? LOL…
Dude...
you don’t hafta SHOUT.
Try the “bold” or “italic” options.
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
replacing cedeno with bartlett makes no sense
at all… none… he had the McLouth career year last year, and now look at him. he is slightly better in the field than cedeno and not an improvement at the bat. you say iwamura is not an option at 2B because of his age when orlando hudson is older. i agree that the fielding has been $#@!, but SS/2B/C and CF are taken care of very nicely, thankyouverymuch.
I agree
I say stick with Ronny….he’s got some good defense, is pretty bad with the bat, but has some flashes here and there. I just think you’re not gonna find an upgrade on the open market where the price isn’t way overvalued….maybe in a couple years we would want to pay above value for a better-hitting SS, but now I don’t think that makes sense.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
look at the stats, offensive and defensive, of the other shortstops in baseball...
and you will see that cedeno is league average. theres more than a dozen teams that get NIL from that position. ronny takes a beating from the yinzers, and granted some of it can be justified. but the sad truth is that he replaced the most popular player on the team.
At age 27
which means he should be able to keep it up for next 2-3 years. Nothing wrong with peaking in your prime.
Anyways, JJ Hardy is the only guy I’d bring in to replace Ronny, if the price is right.
ive always liked Hardy
but at best he would put up the same numbers as Ronny. hes not in a hitters ballpark any longer.
Kind of depends...
…whether you think Cedeno’s defensive numbers this year are genuine or not. Hardy is a very, very good glove.
Hardy
If Hardy becomes available, I’d try to sign him.
You can move Cedeno to 2b, Walker to 3b and Alvarez to 1b.
That might not be an elite defensive infield. But I think it would be a dramatic improvement over what we have now.
That would be a pretty damn good IF defense.
We wouldn’t be getting a heck of a lot of offense out of the middle but the defensive improvements would more than likely be greater than the downgrade in offense going from Jones to Hardy. I think I would take that trade off and stick Jones in RF and platoon him with Milledge. I’d also keep Pearce and give him some at bats spelling Alvarez.
He also has shown real power that Cedeno can't even sniff
If he’s available I think the Bucs should make a serious run at him
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
He has some power...
but Hardy hasn’t been a good offensive player in two years now. That concerns me a bit. I’d still talke a shot at him though because I really like his D.
True enough
But in 07 and 08 he was very good offensively, especially for a SS….injuries have certainly hurt him the last two years, but if he can stay healthy I think he could surprise a lot of people with the bat.
That said, your concerns about his O are definitely valid….zero guarantee that he can get his stroke back
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Walker is a pretty bad 2B right now.
I agree that there’s a chance he can become better with more reps, given the extreme difficulty of learning a position on the fly. If we had the opportunity to acquire a solid 2B, though, I’d have no compunction about moving Walker back to 3B, where we already know that he can be a very good glove.
Pedro is going to be a 1B. The only real question is whether we try and make him fake it at 3B for another year or two, or whether we grasp the nettle and do what needs to be done on our own terms.
One way or the other, we can’t keep running out an infield defense as ragged as this year’s if we’re going to fill our rotation with high-BIP pitchers like Duke and Karstens. It’s not fair to them, asking them to play in front of such lousy gloves, and it’s not fair to us to make us watch hit after hit dribble into the outfield.
Walker at 3B
I wouldn’t say we know that Walker can be a very good glove at 3B. He’s only played 25 games there in the majors, which is way too small a sample size to know anything. He played 353 games there in the minors, and according to Baseball Reference, was slightly below average.
We may suspect he could be a very good glove at 3B, but we certainly don’t know it.
I'm going by scouting rep and personal impression.
He was regarded by scouts as a very good 3B glove, and he looked pretty slick there the one time I saw him in person.
If you’d like to downgrade from “know” to “strongly suspect”, though, I won’t make an issue of it.
I heard the same
All through the minors, the reports I heard/read said that Walker’s defense at 3B was “major league ready” and his plate approach was holding him back. He’s doing a fine job in that respect at the moment.
This team has just so little offensive thump that I think we’re over-reacting to the post to worry about putting the best defensive team out there. They aren’t losing games at a historic rate because Pedro drops an occasional ball (albeit, he did lose them one the other night) or Walker doesn’t get to a ball in the hole. They can’t hit.
I like keeping Walker at 2B because he overindexes at the plate from that position. Pedro should too.
Good points...
but you aren’t taking either of their bats out of the lineup and a run saved = run created. Who the Pirates were able to get to play second would really be the deciding factor as to whether or not moving Pedro and Walker was a good idea.
Walker’s offense plays almost exactly the same at 2B as it would at 3B. “The group” is 20-46, and defense plays a role (although not as much as hitting/pitching which is more expensive to upgrade).
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
my personal impression.....
of seeing 70 or so games of Walker at second is that his range is more than adequate.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
We must be watching two different Walkers...
I see a guy who was better than Aki was (not saying much there) but has less range than most secondbasemen do.
It’s possible to be below average and more than adequate at the same time. Put him with the best 2B in the league and he is below average, but still more than adequate.
Depends what you mean by adequate, I guess.
Is he better than anyone else we have on hand right now? Yes. Should he be starting for us this year? Yes.
Is he good enough that we shouldn’t try to replace him if the opportunity presents itself this offseason? No (in my opinion).
The thing that really drove it home for me...
…was going to a game two weeks ago where a ball about six feet to the right of second base scoot past an outstretched Walker. No big deal in and of itself – everybody lets those balls through once in a while. Get caught leaning, or cheating toward first base… it happens.
But then I started thinking. I started thinking about the last time I saw Walker successfully make a play on a ball in that area. And I couldn’t come up with one.
My suspicion is that he would be better at third than second
His range, especially to his right, has been the biggest problem. Little issue there, since he would never have to go as far. He is very athletic, his hands and quickness are good, and his arm is the only thing I’d want to see. If I was a betting man, I’d say he ends up there.
by RichieHebner on Aug 31, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
walker at 3B
pretty much makes him a well below bat at that position. keeping walker at 2B makes him above average. i was not a walker fan while he was in the minor leagues, yet i do like what i see of him at 2B in the show. let him be. keep him at second.
Walker is only a below-average bat at 3B...
…if he regresses substantially from his 2010 offensive performance. Which he might, of course. But right now he’s well-below-average at 2B anyway, once you account for the negative impact of his defense.
How can you tell that
his defense has more than offset his bat thus making him “well below average at 2B”. I usually like to look at Baseball-reference.com for such information which has Walker at +6 runs above average for all positions as a hitter and only -5 runs for his defense. If true, that would make him above average at 2B since the average 2B is worse than the average hitter overall.
Is there a better place to look when considering such questions?
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
thats easy
compare his bat to other 2Bmen in the national league. other than brandon phillips, uggla and utley, theres not alot of stellar 2B in BOTH leagues…
RBat...
…is centered on average ML hitter, not average starter, and we were talking about everyday 2Bs, not all 2Bs.
Looking at OPS+ of NL staring 2B gives
Ugla 132
Weeks 127
Praedo 127
Johnson 119
Utely 116
Walker 115
Philliips 112
Kepinger 100
DeWitt 99
Eckstein 93
Sanchez 87
Shoemaker 84
Kennedy 81
Barnes 71
Castillo 70
Theriot 69
It seems clear that Walker’s hitting has been far above average for an NL starting 2B. But you seem to be saying that his defense is so bad that the overall package is well below average as you stated. I just don’t understand how you figure that. Or can we put that down as hand waving?
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it's not hand-waving.
Look at Utley and Walker, for example. Only one point of OPS+ between them this year. But take it to RAR, and you get a very different picture. Walker’s at 11 in 312 PA (6 batting, -5 fielding, 1 positional adjustment, +9 over replacement level). Utley’s at +28 in 336 PA (9 batting, +6 fielding, +2 positional adjustment, +10 over replacement level). That’s a huge difference.
Now compare him to Keppinger, who’s 15 points of OPS+ behind Walker. Keppinger’s 16 RAR in 432 PA (1 batting, -1 fielding, +2 positional adjustment, +13 over replacement level (plus, apparently, another point from rounding error)). So per 100 PA, Keppinger’s giving you 3.70 RAR, while Walker’s giving you 3.53 RAR. Even after you adjust for the difference in playing time, Keppinger’s ahead.
Let’s keep going down the ladder and look at David Eckstein. Eckstein’s got a 93 OPS+, putting him 22 points behind Walker. Despite this, he too is generating more RAR per 100 PA: +16 net RAR from -1 batting, +1 baserunning, +3 fielding, +2 positional adjustment, and +10 over replacement level, for 4.41 RAR per 100 PA. So he’s giving his team more than Walker as well.
You only had NL guys on your list, but how about Oakland’s starting 2B, Mark Ellis? He’s only putting up an 80 OPS+ this year, a whopping 35 points behind Walker. You take it to RAR, though, and Ellis has been worth +14 in 357 PA (-8 batting, -1 baserunning, +9 fielding, +1 positional adjustment, +12 over replacement level). He comes out at 3.92 RAR per 100 PA – once again, in front of Walker.
In short, you seem to be understimating just how bad -5 glove runs in 78 games really is. That kind of figure is hugely damaging to a player’s value.
Particularly given that a lot of the guys under Walker offensively...
…are neutral or plus gloves.
It’s also worth noting that the other major PBP defensive metric, UZR, hates his glove even more. It sees him as a -7.5 fielder thus far, compared to a +6.3 batter. I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from it going forward, particularly given the potentially fluid level of Walker’s defensive ability as he gains experience at the position, but to date he hasn’t been getting his hands on many balls.
Too small a sample size....
to draw any conclusions about his defense at second base. That number could change significantly just by the end of the season.
www.thehammerspeaks.com
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Agreed on the sample size and UZR...
though right now the stats tend to back up what I see with my eyes. From what I have seen Walker’s range is not too good, though not nearly as bad as what UZR currently pegs him at.
Yes.
Which is why I said, in the post to which you were responding, that “I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from it going forward”. There isn’t enough sample there for it to have predictive value, or even to definitively establish his current performance as his current level of abilityv (particularly given that his level of ability may not be static, if he’s learning from experience).
But as a measure purely of what he’s done in the majors to this point, it’s largely accurate. The balls it’s charting are balls that he did or didn’t field. And if he’s going to be an average or above-average 2B for us in the future, he’s going to need to field more balls than he has so far.
Thanks for taking the time to explain all of that
I’ll have to take a closer look at it when I get the chance.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I see how you figure that now.
Walker is about in the middle of starting NL 2B in RAR per 100 PAs but there are a lot of guys clustered at just slightly worse than he is and several who are way above him, so your well-below-average charachterization makes sense using that measure.
I’ve wondered for awhile what a good way to figure how much the value of a good bat is offset by poor defence and other factors or (viaa versa). Looking at RAR per 100 PAs might be a good way to do that.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Strictly speaking...
…you probably shouldn’t convert RAR into a rate stat like that. I did it as kind of a kludge, to make up for the fact that Walker has a lot less PT than some of the guys to whom we’re comparing him. But it’s got a certain amount of imprecision built in, since RAR incorporates fielding data, and not all 100 PA stretches are going to encompass an equal amount of time in the field.
As a thumbnail sketch, it’s probably OK, but I didn’t want to lead you into the brambles if you were going to do anything serious with it.
Qu'est-ce que c'est
RAR, s’il vous plaît?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Short answer,
s’il vous plaît…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
With 300 PAs, Walker’s offense ranks 11th among major league second baseman. If he was a 3rd baseman, his offensive marks this year would go all the way down to…11th in the majors.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
filling 2B and SS
are the hardest positions to fill on a MLB roster. we have a 2B who is exceding expectations. lets leave him there for a while, shall we???
He’s not exceeding expectations on defense though.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
oh but he is...
and hes better than Sanchez was in his first year at 2B too. the funny thing is, im not a Walker “fan”. but he finally earned a callup this season and hes made 2B his own.
That is just wrong...
He is not better than Sanchez was and the only reason he looks so good is because he followed that sloth in Iwamura. I too would like to see if they can work with him in the off season to see if he can improve but it’s obvious to me that he is not comfortable at 2nd and has limited range. He’s very athletic and has definitely exceeded my expectations for him though.
and asking walker to keep these numbers up...
is unfair and unreasonable. hes hitting at a clip that he’s never even sniffed before.
That's a good point ...
I tried to make the same one above.
The Bucs are highly unlikely to sign a top bat in free agency. They aren’t going to get an elite arm.
But they can improve defensively.
You can’t have pitch-to-contact guys and then have such atrocious defenders.
This is a very important point here. Hardy/Bartlett and shifting the defense would get more extra wins than Adam Dunn or whatever $10 million pitcher we have in mind.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I could have added more along these lines to my original post.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else think we'll make a play at Rich Harden this off-season?
He just screams NH type acquistion.
Hard thrower with control issues, whose stock will be considerably less than last off-season. Almost no chance Texas picks up the 11 million dollar option. Harden will only be 29 next season, and if he rights the ship would be a pretty good addition to the rotation.
Of course, the K’s are down and the walks are up this season, but he’s the type of guy I wouldn’t mind seeing us throw 5 million at, with an option for 2012,
Harden
= injury machine.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Walker Ideal
Walker is the ideal 2nd basemen, hit for average, hit for power and won’t make a lot of errors, a lot of great managers will tell you to give them a player that makes the plays they should make, Walker does that. Release him and see how long it takes for someone to grab him. He is far from a defensive problem on this team and he will continue to get better.
I have seen most of the 2nd basemen in this league he can hold his own with most of them and he has what, played the position for about 3 months of his life.
For Walker to be the ideal 2nd baseman...
…he’d need to have more than “two-steps-and-a-dive” range. How many times have you seen him make a play on a ball up the middle, for example? Good defensive 2Bs hoover those balls right up.
He’s a good player, and might be a good 2B in the future, but he’s not there yet.
Manager, Manager,Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
2011, start with a new manager, better starting pitching, a couple of better relief pitchers, a closer, 1 power hitter and this will be a much improved team if:
The manager manages differently than the one we have, another JR is not going to do anything but continue to hold back the team.
I get a kick out of how afraid the reporters are to counter his dumb answers to their questions.
*smacks self in forehead*
Better starters, better relievers, a power hitter .. why didn’t I think of that?
Thanks! I’ll get on it.
Dials NH’s private number
For NH,
press 2.
If you are using a rotary dial phone, please remain on the line, and your call will be answered in the order it was received.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 1, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Holes
Both Meek and Hanrahan are capable of closing competently.
Middle relief is the last refuge of the incompetent starter, so if the Pirates have better starting pitching, they automatically get a couple of better relief pitchers.
So the question is, where do they get “a power hitter and better starting pitching” in 2011?
Here’s the list of 2011 free agents. Pick me out a couple of starting pitchers and a power hitting 1B/RF. Then tell me (a) how much it’ll cost the Pirates and (b) how many wins that they can be expected to add. You can look up their current salaries and 2010 WAR on Baseball Reference.
Hint: Figure the Pirates are on a pace for 55 wins this year. Figure that Tabata and Walker will each be about one win better this year than last year. Figure that Pedro will be two, or even three wins better. Figure everyone else will be about the same. That’s 60 wins.
For the Pirates to contend in 2011, you’d have to add 25-30 wins. That’s Albert Pujols, Zack Greinke, and Roy Halladay.
Figure that Tabata and Walker will each be about one win
If you figure it that way no team in baseball would get 80 wins.
The affect that Tabata, Walker have on the team is more important than figuring they are good for 1 or 2 wins. I think this is an aburd way to figure player values.
Home many wins is Pujols worth and how many wins is Halliday worth and then figure out how the rest of their batting order is going to get them to 80 wins.
Pitching is still the key, Walker hit a 2 run home run in the 1st, they ended up with 4 runs, 4 is enough to win, Pitching determined they were not going to win and a manage that does not know how to win.
You are missing the baseline for comparison . . .
he’s saying they’re worth 1 win above the level of their positions this year. Similarly, WAR uses a replacement-level baseline. A replacement-level team isn’t a 0 win team. Someone with better knowledge/not as lazy as me may correct this, but I think a replacement-level team is good for 45-55 wins a year.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Actually
I’m saying assume Tabata and Walker each improve about by about 1 win above what they’re producing this year. That would put Walker at about 2.5 WAR and Tabata at about 3.5, which are solid levels for MLB starters; it would be expected to give the Pirates two more wins in 2011 than they’ll get in 2010.
According to The Book, an NL team made up of 100% replacement-level players would be expected to win 47-48 games in a season. The Pirates’ current regulars are on track for about 6 WAR, and their pitchers are at about 2.5, putting them at about 8.5 WAR – or about 56 wins, which is right about what they’re on a pace for.
And I think . . .
Pujols is on pace to be about 8 wins above replacement and Halladay 7. Meaning, if the rest of their rosters are even semi-competent major league players, they should contribute at least 20 WAR. So a team of Halladay, Pujols and semi-competents would be expected to break about even.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
And I assume....
…that by ‘friedly,’ you mean ‘similarly lacks any command of spelling, syntax, or grammar in the English language.’
Or perhaps competent writing is beneath your genius? The claim has been made before, after all.
I don't think
Bartlett has been a plus fielder for a couple years now.
You are absolutely right
Bartlett’s fielding skills have been fading steadily. He used to have a UZR of over 10. For the last two years it has been less than -5.
Viva Clemente!
City of Champions and the Nutting prospects
Bishop – you are excluded from this comment, because you appear to be respectful. The rest of you are ENABLING D- BAGS who would suckle on Nutting’S Tit if he allowed you to do so.
Regarding money – this team has the lowest payroll in the league AND the lowest amount of wins…….. FACT
Other teams such as SD, Brewers and FLA (more than once) have blown up a roster and been respectable after a few years.
Pertaining to the rebuilding taking time – This team is getting worse each year. There should be signs of improving by now. There are NONE!
As far as FA’s – This is now not a 1 year fix. Sign a few FA’s each year and gain respectability quickly. Playoffs? Not yet…. but .500 maybe. They need to add through FA each year….. and not Aki’s or Cedeno’s and Crosby’s……
Morton is a bum. The Braves former Pitching coach even said so. I am guessing many of you touted Clement and Andy L as the next great players to wear the Pirate logo too ….right?!
Just because the team spent money on shitty FA’s in the past does not mean they can’t spend it wisely in the future (although with NH pulling the strings, I agree. It is unlikely)……This is Nuter tactic # 1 – pointing out past failed FA’s as an excuse not to spend
Regarding my “job” – As a fan, it is my right and “job” to watch and provide my 2 cents, but I rely on the FO of each team to act wisely and in the best interest of the club, fans, and city.
These buffoons running the show suck!
Keep spouting the same old tired excuses though and enjoy watching losing, pathetic, cheaply run baseball at the ’ol ball park…..
And RYE – sit in the all you can eat seats next time…… I hear they clean the kitchens real well fatboy
Because
U people are childish A- holes who attack anyone who does not think like u
110 or bust!
And you’re under the impression that only free agents can help this team, despite the fact that EVERY winning team last decade had a good core of home grown players before adding in free agency.
by ryebr3ad on Aug 30, 2010 4:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nah, a lot of regulars here go against the grain. RafaelBeliup, Thunder off the top of my head.
They just…you know…know how to argue. They don’t treat us like idiots, so we don’t treat them like idiots in return. It’s a marvelous phenomenon.
But please, keep up the defensive posting. It’s everybody’s fault but yours!
I have a fan!
You know, BMI does say I’m obese, but I guess it doesn’t factor in that I’m a weight lifter.
by ryebr3ad on Aug 30, 2010 4:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Clarification on the d-bags
Didn’t mean everyone one this Nutting run blog were D-bags…..only those responding and insulting me. I apoligize if i offended anyone else
You essentially insulted everyone in the other thread,
and made a crack about my deceased mother. Nothing you say warrants anyone’s attention, you fuck.
Actually
the mother crack wasn’t directed at you…ur mom’s 2 ugly
& don’t bring ur shit my way if you can’t take it jerkoff
You said my mother keeps you from being lonely.
My mother has been dead for 9 years. So are you a necrophiliac, or?
Let's see...
insulting = douchebag
BFD1 = insulting
BFD = douchebag?
Hey, you said it, I just clarified.
But more importantly, can you please get me
my large one topping and side of fries? Like, seriously, I’m not gonna tip you this time.
Actually, never mind
my boss/sugar daddy Bob Nutting is taking all of us out to the Waffle House. He got a big group discount, of course.
This will be hard to do
I may not even be able to do it myself, but what if we gave the -1 treatment a try for BFD1 and his ilk a try?
We’ve already responded logically to all of them, and they come back and post the same tripe over and over.
I’ll see if I can get it started. A simple -1 and nothing more.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Actually, u nutters spout the same excuses & “the others” no longer post because you boy Chuck banned them/disabled their id
What does uncle ogdan pay you to defend his ugly kid on here?
Can't we all just get along?
Seriously, what happened to the usual intelligent discourse on this site?
@ BFD1 – I try to be respectful of others’ points of view and keep an open mind toward them.
I think the main issue with your presence here is that, whether you realize it or not, you do take on the “troll” persona and perpetuate all of the negative stereotypes thereof. You come on here, accuse people of being stupid sheep, blindly following the FO propaganda and being relatives of the Nutting family. This is the same bashing that occurs when folks from this blog venture over to Smizik’s blog on the P-G site.
We’re all frustrated with the Pirates’ losing streak and we all wish it would end sooner rather than later. The folks here tend to take more of a “it’s a process” stance, while the folks on Smizik’s blog take a “find a quick fix by spending money” point of view. These are completely incompatible, and while it would seem like the team could be competitive at the MLB level while still building toward the future through the draft, MLB is not really set up that way.
Another issue is that you come here and start yelling about Nutting spending money, but when pressed, you offer no concrete solutions; it’s just “buy Free Agents, raise payroll to a respectable level” over and over again. Most of us have reviewed the list of impending Free Agents and see that it is mainly a vast wasteland of flotsam and jetsam, has-beens and never-will-be’s. While it’s very true that “it’s not our money, so why do we care how Nutting spends it,” we realize that the Pirates’ current ownership either cannot or will not spend $100MM plus, so we have to hope that they will spend it wisely instead of dropping $48MM on Jeff Suppan or $30MM on Randy Wolf, hoping that guys who are nothing better than average will turn into something more overnight.
@ Everyone Else – don’t feed the trolls and get into degenerative flame wars with them. We purport that we are thinking fans and understand how finances are just as critical to the ongoing success of the Pirates as the players, but when things descend into childish name-calling, you look like a bunch of douchebags. The trolls invade here to get a rise out of you and you give them exactly what they want.
I know that I sound like an old man and will probably catch a lot of crap for this post, but I come here to intelligently discuss the sport I love and the team that I love, not act like my 5-year-old daughter on the playground.
Peace.
From my1st
Post, i was ripped Bishop, which brought out my hostility
I am friendly with many " nutters" , but this place takes the cake as i had been warned
I am no “troll”
I want winning baseball which this regime has not come close to providing
I want them out!!!!
As far as the FA list…most will be an upgrade over the pathetc buch taking the field now
The problem with FA "upgrades"
Is that they are minimal at best….for A LOT more money….so you take money away from the draft and international signings, player development, etc. to gain, maybe 10 wins, if you’re lucky.
I want a bunch of good players as much as the next guy, but the reality is, unless you’re the Yankees (or to a lesser extent, Boston, Philly, etc.) buying up FA’s just doesn’t work because the Pirates (and most teams) just can’t possibly afford all the good ones.
Your developmental system suffers greatly and the on-field product remains roughly the same. A team like the Pirates needs to wait on the FAs, as painful as that is. Look at the Rays, they built their developmental system for years and when they had their guys in place brought in a few choice guys through FA and trades (though I should point out, not top-tier guys by any stretch).
Anyway, we saw the aforementioned plan before with just bringing in some FAs making trades for “names” and it didn’t work…at all, on the MLB field, and minors became a barren wasteland.
I do understand the yearning to go out and get guys, but it’s just not feasible. I’d love it, I really would, but it’ll just set back the org 10 years, unless you get REALLY lucky, and even then, you’re still playing on borrowed time.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
You poor persecuted liar...
Sell Nutting
Well, Well… if it isn’t ryebr3ad. Yes. It is I… the one you call "idiot" while your praise your scroogelike leader of 18 consecutive losing seasons……….
Keep defending, keep attending, and keep losing rye……
by BFD1 on Aug 26, 2010 10:37 AM PDT reply actions
That was your 1st post. Obviously you knew Rye from a different board but you came out swinging and right away insinuated that anyone who supports the team by going to games is a blind idiot. I’m not sure what kind of responses you expected but a post like this usually draws out the crowd because it’s very condescending and troll like in that you didn’t even have a point to make.
Only
because he was talking shit on me prior to EVeR poting here
Look it up Matlock
And in this span, you insulted someone’s dead mother, insulted an entire board of Pirates fans for not thinking like you, and have driven yourself to post like a child because “we forced you to”.
Talk about an enabler, eh?
That's not
very fantsy.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 2, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Good Post
Honestly, the best way to deal with trolls is to ignore them and they will inevitably go away. I know that I would be better served to practice what I preach in this regard, but it’s difficult sometimes.
The thing is, this is probably the best place to discuss Pirates baseball because it takes the obvious for granted: NH’s “plan” is the right one. From there, we can discuss players, prospects, managing, and ultimately whether NH is executing the plan properly (and there are good arguments to be made that he’s not). Other places, namely the PBC Blog and Smizik’s blog, are just a bunch of anger sprouting all over the place, and simply take a mob mentality. I really don’t want this place to degenerate into that sort of stuff, so I think we really need to make an effort to either ignore these sorts of guys, or just ban them.
And I understand that you took an unfair amount of name-calling, which you perpetuated, which they perpetuated and so on and so forth.
By definition, you are a “troll”, because your primary purpose by posting here is to inflame or incite others to respond to your posts in a negative manner. Using terms like “regime”, as though this were some military-style junta, accomplishes this.
As for the FA list, you yourself mentioned earlier that you didn’t know who was on that list, but you write now that they would be an upgrade over the current bunch on the field. It’s uninformed blanket statements like that one that will open you up to mass criticism.
Again, I can completely see your point of view. It’s just your execution that could use a little work; not everyone here is sympathetic to the cause as they are over on Bob’s blog.
FA
i am certain any FA brought in would not lose 110 gAmes…. If that is a blanket statement, so be it, but it is a fact
Any FA?
Soo… how bout we do this?
Sign Julio Lugo and his .591 OPS to replace Ronnie…
Sign Ronnie Belliard and his .638 OPS to replace Walker..
I could go on and on, you get the point. Not trying to be a dick, I’m really not, but you’ve got to back up your statements if you’re going to make them.
If you picked some FA targets that actually made sense (Harden, Bedard) and argued for it, you may find guys disagreeing, people disagree with me all the time, but you’d find this to be a much more pleasent atmosphere.
Sometimes, anymore, reading these threads . . .
is like tuning into a soap opera.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
yeah
when i switch back here after a couple of years or so, and see 50 plus unread comments on a thread, I know almost certainly that its going to be a flame war and there’s gonna be nothing meaningful to read. Of course, I m ocasionally wrong, but I’d rather be wrong all the time on that…
Sometimes they're fun to read when you're really bored though.
Also, usually a few of the regulars around here will have really interesting points mixed in amidst the mess.
Of course, the team needs more than just defense for run prevention. Maholm has regressed a lot this year, and all the other starting pitchers are (also) comfortably below league-average, according to Baseball Prospectus SIERA marks.
Have you had a chance to study up on SIERA?
It intrigues me but I have not had the time to read up on it. What separates it from other DIPS?
From BP's explanation:
1.Allows for the fact that a high ground-ball rate is more useful to pitchers who walk more batters, due to the potential that double plays wipe away runners.
2.Allows for the fact that a low fly-ball rate (and therefore, a low HR rate) is less useful to pitchers who strike out a lot of batters (e.g. Johan Santana’s FIP tends to be higher than his ERA because the former treats all HR the same, even though Santana’s skill set portends this bombs allowed will usually be solo shots).
3.Allows for the fact that adding strikeouts is more useful when you don’t strike out many guys to begin with, since more runners get stranded.
4.Allows for the fact that adding ground balls is more useful when you already allow a lot of ground balls because there are frequently runners on first.
5.Corrects for the fact that QERA used GB/BIP instead of GB/PA (e.g. Joel Pineiro is all contact, so increasing his ground-ball rate means more ground balls than if Oliver Perez had done it, given he’s not a high contact guy).
6.Corrects for the fact that FIP and xFIP use IP as a denominator which means that luck on balls in play changes one’s FIP. -Link

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