Community Prospect #7
by wg1of5 on Sep 1, 2010 3:13 PM EDT
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Well, after a fairly long delay, I give you the seventh poll in our series. You know the rules by now, so I don't think we need to go through them again. Clearly, Starling Marte was the winner of the poll for #6, so here is your list to this point:
1. Jameson Taillon, RHP
2. Tony Sanchez, C
3. Bryan Morris, RHP
4. Rudy Owens, LHP
5. Stetson Allie, RHP
6. Starling Marte, CF
Enjoy.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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i think it just depends what people are voting on
ceiling or likelihood… for someone like Heredia, who’s many years away, its a bit harder to vote for him ahead of Locke/Owens type guys who are already in AA performing… my next pick would be a tossup between Heredia/Lambo.
I think when the major publications release their team prospect lists the consensus will be that Heredia is several notches above Locke, due almost entirely to ceiling.
Whether you agree with that rationale or not, it’s certainly hard to rank a sixteen-year-old who already throws 91-92 with the potential for three plus pitches below a pitcher who has already most likely reached his physical ceiling, a ceiling which appears to be a solid #4 type.
Locke is an excellent pitcher, and a prospect who has certainly regained some of his luster, but he’s not elite.
Solid #4 is Paul Maholm
I don’t agree at all that that is or even “appears to be” his ceiling. Heredia will get his credit once he proves something, Locke deserves it now.
Solid 4 used to be Paul Maholm. Now his Ks are down and walks are up.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 1, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually...
…before this year, Maholm was on the border of a #2 and a #3 by ERA and such.
People tend to overestimate the quality of pitchers occupying any given “slot”.
Paul Maholm is an interesting comparison
As Maholm’s age 23 season split between AA and AAA is quite comparable to Locke’s season this year split between High-A and AA as a 22 year-old.
Maholm (With the majority of his innings coming at AA) -3.30 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.9BB/9
Locke (With the majority of innings at High-A)-3.24 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9
Locke obviously has the advantage in K/BB, but I think Maholm seems like a decent projection for Locke, and frankly, if Locke can provide 11 WAR over five seasons like Maholm has, I would be elated.
The K/BB difference is fairly sizeable
I’d say Locke probably projects to have a ceiling somewhat above Maholm’s, not saying he is a lock to get there though.
I'd take Heredia over Locke...
…and I’d take Locke over Owens or Morris. This list just looks totally bass-ackwards to me.
its only because...
locke/morris/owens are closer to helping the pirates out than heredia. i agree with you though. hes only 16 and tossing low 90s; imagine a growth spurt and natural strength increase and what he may be throwing in the future.
My list
Taillon
Morris
Sanchez
Locke
Allie
Heredia
Owens
Marte
Wilson
Then it gets muddled
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 2, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve been voting Heredia most every round since my list would be Heredia/Locke/Morris/Owens but I seem to be getting zero traction here.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 2, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty much in line with you...
Callis likes to say that you win at the big league level with stars. As such I tend to favor ceiling in these rankings and nobody has more than the new guys: Taillon, Allie and Heredia. Floor is a consideration as well which is why I would place Sanchez over Heredia at this point. I think my top ten would look like this:
1) Taillon
2) Allie
3) Sanchez
4) Heredia
5) Morris
6) Marte
7) Owens
8) Locke
9) ZVR
10) Lambo
The injury hurt Marte IMO or he may have been ahead of Morris. Also, I could very easily flip-flop Locke and Owens and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Locke jump Morris next season. Right now though I still have to go with Morris’ stuff.
i would drop Allie
in between morris and marte… not because of talent, i just hate having two “M’s” next to each other in a list.
I have Heredia at 6 . . .
and I don’t think it’s that crazy. It’s a tough balance between more certainty versus a higher ceiling. Heredia’s risk- that is not only is he 16, but he’s also a pitcher and their rate of attrition is absurd- drops despite his potential being in the top 2 or 3 in the system.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
The converse to this is Rudy Owens who I have at 9.
His lack of ceiling, in my book, lowers him despite performance and lower risk. Not that I am saying anyhting that everyone doesn’t know- it’s a balance of ceiling vs. floor- just saying I don’t think you can be too astonished that Heredia is lower.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
1) Heredia's in second
I wouldn’t quite say “nobody” is picking him.
2) He’s a 16 year old who throws a 92 MPH fastball. That is reason to be excited about the possibilities with him and to temper your excitement. Realistically, it will take him 5+ years to reach the majors, if he reaches them at all. I find it hard to justify ranking him above Jeff Locke, a lefty with pretty good stuff with a K/BB ratio over 5. And Locke should at least sniff the majors by next year or 2012, 3 years before Heredia does in a best-case scenario.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAxery40Odk
Is Heredia the pitcher at 0:45 ? There is too little information about this kid.
Think so.
That’s definitely him (or his evil twin) in the interview at 1:04.
Good-lookin’ ball he threw there. Felt like it was still picking up steam when it hit the catcher’s glove.
Upon further review...
…it has to be him.
The kid pitching is wearing #25, the same jersey number Heredia wore at his ceremonial contract signing.
Can't believe Locke fell to 7
I know he gets no hype at all but I think you could make a decent argument for him at #4, if not #6 at the latest.
Agreed
He’s my clear cut 4.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 2, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying they are wrong but...
…has anyone on this website seen Heredia throw one pitch? Not saying he won’t be great, and I hope that he will, but how can you deny Locke for him. Is Heredia’s ceiling higher? Potentially and probably. Do the risks associated with him lower his overall value to the franchise to a point where it is lower than Locke’s? I believe so.
Colton Cain
I didn’t vote for Cain but I think he should be considered soon and should therefore be one of the options. Especially because many see him as comparable to ZVR.
Good call.
I was racking my brains trying to find extra options to put on there, and that’s a pretty good one. I’ll try to remember to put him on the next poll.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
Cain, Miller, and maybe Grossman would be well ahead of the last 4 options in the poll. Probably Latimore too but maybe that’s just me.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 1, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Q Lat?
Q? Are you serious…he and his k/bb ratio don’t sniff top 20 let alone top 10. It is no longer 2007, take a deep breath Littlefield and his farm system are gone.
Q-Lat has some athleticism. I haven’t seen him since last year, but his numbers have ticked up in a tougher league. He’s got 20 home runs and 100 RBI. HR/RBI aren’t the best type of hitting stats by any means, but that’s one measure for the minor leaguers.
I like Latimore for at least a very good 3rd/4th outfielder on a contender, and I’d put him over Chambers or Cunningham who are in WV this year (or at least they were earlier this season, not sure about now).
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 1, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Until his plate discipline improves I don’t really consider him a prospect. Next year’s jump (if it happens) to AA will be a good predictor of his future viability. 132 k’s to 29 walks isn’t going to cut it in AA or higher.
FWIW Chambers has 112 k’s and 89 walks, I’ll take his power/speed/plate discipline over the likes of Q all day long.
K/BB isn’t everything. Especially high walk/high K/low average against A-ball pitching (Chambers).
That’s at least as questionable as Latimore’s skillset with good defense/athleticism/power.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 2, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, RBI is "one measure for the minor leaguers"
So is eye color, but I don’t see anybody using that as a criterion when ranking prospects.
right now
I wouldnt put Miller or Grossman ahead of anyone but Harrison, but I know a lot of people like Grossman a lot so he probably should be in the poll.
Latimore probably is fine off the list at this point… D’Arnaud’s stock sure has fallen, plus newer prospects…
wow
it’s taken until the 7th vote for me to not pick the same as most other people. I chose Heredia but it was out of Locke and him.
batting perfect so far
So far I have everyone on my list in that order.
had Marte before Allie
but I think I m certainly rating based on some latent averaging between ceiling and likelihood…
Not regarded as particularly high-ceiling.
Pedestrian tools – more of a scrapper and a grinder and all that, by rep.
Eh, I dunno.
That’s just the scouts’ line. Lots of guys have made a good career out of pedestrian tools. I mean, scouts hated Larry Bowa’s tools so much he had to lobby and wheedle his ass off to even get signed, and he moved right up the chain and had a nice long career in the bigs. So who really knows?
Holt's ceiling was never to high
he wasnt really expected to be anything when we drafted him. If i recall right I heard the statement " organizational depth" in the same sentence as Holt. (I might be wrong) He has opened eyes at with all aspects of his game.
By the way...
wg1og5, this is a pretty cool serious you are doing here. Thanks. Keeps things interesting when the news is slow.
Heh, thanks.
If you go back to the first few, though, you’ll see that I didn’t even start it. Some fellow named “Soldierjoe” did, so you have him to thank as well. Still, glad to see you and everyone else enjoy it.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
Though, can we possibly get #8 now? It's pretty obvious
That Locke is taking this one.
Sounds good.
It’s been nearly two days, so it’s about time anyway.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
figures that we quibble over where to put Locke
then he goes out and pitches his worst game of the year last night. sigh.
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