Pirates Claim Chris Leroux From Marlins
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 13, 2010 4:26 PM EDT
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PrintThe Bucs have claimed pitcher Leroux from the Marlins, and have made room for him by designating Brian Bass for assignment. Leroux is 26 and is 6-foot-6. He throws hard (with an average fastball velocity of a bit under 94 MPH this season) and has put up consistently good peripheral numbers throughout the minors, usually while racking up grounders. That definitely sounds like a pitcher who's worth a waiver claim. He struggled a bit in AAA and in the majors this year, but continued to post good peripherals while doing so.
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I thought he played for the Flyers,
but that would be Claude Giroux. Anyway, this guy absolutely sounds like he is worth a shot. I just wish I had a little more confidence in our staff being able to coach-up the pitchers.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
I thought he was a dead country singer,
but then I realized it was Chris Leroux, not Chris LeDoux. Consider that a shameless plug for the gold-belt buckle winning rodeo cowboy whose best songs were pilfered by Garth Brooks. Pick up one or two songs from iTunes to round out your library.
Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!
So why the huge delta?
I mean, the guy was approaching a 7 ERA in AAA. Is this a fluke of BABIP and/or HR/FB, or what? Surely the Marlins wouldn’t DFA a guy with great peripherals if it were an obvious SSS/bad luck situation.
.358 BABIP at AAA this year.
That’s pretty high.
BABIP does have a skill-based component for the minors (more so as you move down the chain to lower levels), but I’d feel pretty comfortable in saying that about half of his AAA ERA is just bad luck.
That makes me feel a bit better
He’s probably doing something wrong, but possibly fixable with a tweak/better gameplanning/whatever.
Could just be bad luck, too.
We’re only talking about like 20 IP here.
by Vlad on Sep 13, 2010 10:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Mentioned this in the Leroux fanpost...
…but he’s apparently been operating under some significant workload restrictions for most of his pro career. No back-to-back games, two days of rest after multi-inning appearances, etc.
Worth keeping in mind, going forward. I still like the claim, though.
I'm indifferent
There is nothing about his minor league numbers that jump out at me over five years.
He gives up nearly a hit per inning in the minors. He’s shown control problems at times.
I suspect he’s another arm to throw into the middle innings mix for next year.
I guess the scouts like his arm a lot and are looking past just okay minor league numbers.
Rare....
is the guy whose minor league numbers are going to jump out at you when you are making a waiver claim on a 26 year old.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Really? Nothing?
He strikes out almost a batter an inning, and he keeps the ball on the ground and in the park. His minor league walk rate has improved every year, and has been better than average in the last two.
He’s not a future star or anything like that, but he looks like he could be a useful contributor, and he’s a damn sight better than Bass.
Not much, no
The Marlins are desperate for relief pitching and found him expendable. I wonder why they didn’t see him as a “useful contributor”?
1. He’ll be 27 next spring and has an injury history.
2. His big league numbers are atrocious: A WHIP over 2, 5.5 walks per 9 innings, an ERA of over 8, and 12.8 H/9 innings
3. His career ERA at AAA, 6.95, 1.5 WHIP, 10.6 H/9 innings
4. His career ERA at AA, 2.7, 1.3 WHIP, 8.8 H/9 innings
Bass, who doesn’t belong on anyone’s 40-man roster, puts up the following numbers:
1. MLB: 5.16 ERA, 1.6 WHIP, 10.5 H/9
2. AAA numbers: 4.05 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 9.6 H/9
3. AA numbers: 5.44 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, 10.5 H/9
You have to get to AA and below for Leroux to outperform the admittedly hideous Bass.
I’d also note that Leroux was “old” for every level. He should have dominated and didn’t.
His CHONE and ZIPs MLB projections for this year: 4.58 FIP.
And his comparables are guys like Talley Haines and Tristan Crawford.
No, I don’t see much to like. Moreover, I’ll predict today that he won’t be on the 40-man roster this spring. Instead, the Pirates will designate him for assignment and he’ll come to camp as a nonroster guy.
ERA, WHIP and H/9 aren't the only relevant metrics
LeRoux’s major league FIP is 4.01, his ERA is inflated by an unsustainable .412 BABIP. And we’re only talking about 24 IP anyway, not really a significant sample size.
Maguro
I’m not saying those are the only relevant metrics. But a minor league FIP of 4.01 hardly wows me.
I am saying that as a 26-year-old at AAA with those numbers and history, I don’t find him all that intriguing. I guess that’s why Baseball Prospectus compares him to elite players like Talley Haines and Tristan Crawford.
See my post below...
…for why Haines isn’t a very good comp for Leroux.
Is Leroux’s PECOTA list Haineses all the way down, or did you just pick two of the worst names on the sheet?
Comparables ...
Actually, those were the two names I could read on the Google book version of Baseball Prospectus. I don’t pay for it and the Google book version is tough to read.
My aging eyes could read those names. I do believe they were second and third, though.
Good enough.
I just wondered why you only gave two names. I think if you’re a BPro online subscriber, they give you like a top 10 or a top 20. The last BPro annual I bought was pre-PECOTA, so I didn’t know (or had forgotten, if I’d heard) that they ran them in there as well.
Here's the link ...
Maybe you have better eyes than I do.
Looks like the other two names...
Agreed
I don’t know why BP doesn’t use middle initials. That would make it much easier.
I also guessed those two. I’m pretty sure of it, in fact.
The former Pirate Chris Young would make no sense.
Yeah.
The Johnson thing is weird, though. PECOTA incorporates physical similarity into its analysis, but the Johnson I linked was listed at 6’1", 183. So he’s giving up five inches and more than forty pounds to Leroux. But the other one was primarily a SP…
that may well be the case
but if he’s around, then we have some chance to help him figure things out. Brian Bass is what he is, and its a better use of a roster spot.
Also, for bad numbers, check out Evan Meek’s start to MLB. Very similar. Not everyone works things out, but its worth a shot, when the cost is losing Bass.
Burgher
I wouldn’t have claimed him. Not because of Bass. He’s useless.
But I don’t see how he stays on the 40-man roster this winter.
As for Meek, he certainly got off to a bad start in the minors. I agree.
But LeRoux is almost the same age as Meek is now. That’s one of the reasons I’d say I don’t see him contributing or improving much.
Leroux does have several things in his background...
…suggesting that he might develop later than the average pitcher:
*A cold-weather playing background (Canada)
*A late conversion to pitching
*A lost college season due to injury
*A restricted minor-league workload
Any one of those can make a guy a little more likely to be a late bloomer, and Leroux has all four.
Again ...
maybe it’ll happen.
But I would have spent the $50,000 on the waiver claim and bought Pennsylvania lottery tickets. I think they are a better investment.
There are also lots of things that suggest he’ll quickly flame out. Age per level. Failure to dominate a level. Injury. Average control.
Age per level counts, yes...
…but don’t forget that he’s a college pick who had TJ his senior year. He isn’t old for his leagues because he was moving slowly – he just started out behind the 8-ball due to his injury, and has been moving up a level a year since then. Lincoln’s TJ didn’t prima facie make him a non-prospect when he came back, and Leroux’s doesn’t, either.
Vlad
He’s going to be 27 during spring training.
Did TJ push him back? Of course.
But his best outcome is Tyler Yates, and I think it’s remote that he becomes that useful.
It’s much more likely, I think, that he’ll be working at the mall than pitching in MLB in three years.
"his best outcome is Tyler Yates"
See, I don’t think that’s a fair comparison. They’re both big guys, and they both live off the fastball, but Yates was consistently walking 4 batters per nine at AA and AAA, and while Leroux had shaky command at the start of his career (unsurprising, post-TJ), he’s been significantly better than that in the upper minors.
ML numbers aren't all that important in this case...
…given that we’re talking about a guy with relatively little experience. A lot of pitchers need to get some innings under their belts before they figure out how the ML strike zone works and learn to trust their stuff. I mean, in Greg Maddux’s first two seasons, he had a 5.59 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 1.42 K/BB in 186 IP. And that’s the guy with basically the best command of any pitcher of the modern era. You need to let some guys take a few beatings, and then see whether they adjust or not.
You want to see the most important difference between Leroux and Bass?
Bass, K/9, AAA: 6.3
Leroux, K/9, AAA: 8.2
Bass, K/9, AA: 5.5
Leroux, K/9, AA: 8.2
Unless he’s an extreme groundballer, or a trick pitcher like a knuckleballer, or he has serious untapped potential due to bad mechanics or whatnot, a guy with a 6-ish K/9 in the upper minors is going to be meat in MLB (and even an extreme groundballer or a high-BIP trick guy would get eaten alive by our current defense). Whereas a guy who’s actually missing bats is going to project much better – particularly if he’s earning the Ks with plus stuff.
Talley Haines may be statistically comparable to Leroux at the same age, but I don’t think there’s a lot of value to that particular comparison. Haines’s fastball topped out around 85, which is a large part of why he never got a shot in the majors (and probably wouldn’t have done particularly well if he had). Crawford is a little closer as a comp, though Leroux’s 2009 at AA is head-and-shoulders better than any upper-minors performance Crawford ever put together.
I don’t think Leroux is going to be a game-changer or anything like that, but I think there’s a chance he could be a cheap-and-average bullpen option for us, and I think it’s worth looking at him for three weeks to see whether or not there’s anything there.
Vlad
A couple comments:
Leroux certainly has a more interesting arm than Bass. K/9 are important. I agree with that.
But a guy with a CHONE FIP of nearly 4.6 is going to do horribly with the Pirates’ defense.
As for Haines and Crawford, those are not my comparables. They come from Baseball Prospectus.
Is he worth a look? Maybe. But I don’t find him that interesting because of his statistics and age at those levels.
As I first posted, I suspect NH and the scouts see something they like.
But the relief-pitching starved Marlins did not. And Florida is pretty good at knowing its prospects.
Not all FIPs are created alike.
K-heavy pitchers (like Leroux) are going to be less affected by our defense than the average arm, since they put fewer balls in play (and thus give the defense the opportunity to kick/miss fewer balls). A 4.58 FIP isn’t champagne-worthy, but it’s not crap, either. That’s solid middle-reliever performance, and if he still has some ceiling left over…
I know that you didn’t pick Haines and Crawford out of thin air – I was just curious about the full PECOTA list. For subscribers, they give the top ten (or maybe twenty – I forget) comparables, so I was curious about whether any of the guys on the full list had any degree of success, or whether it was all minor league lifers. Not that PECOTA comps are all that great a predictor, IMO, anyway (as with the fastball-less Haines).
Florida knows their guys, but they also have a pretty tight roster situation most of the time, so you can sometimes find good stuff in their garbage can. For example, they cut loose Jai Miller and Cristhian Martinez earlier this year, and both have done fairly well for their respective new organizations. Miller put up a .871 OPS at Omaha and earned a callup with the Royals, while Martinez has been solid in middle relief for the Braves (3.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 18/3 K/BB in 23 2/3 IP).
FIP ...
is a tricky statistic. Certainly, the strikeouts will help. But he does give up a decent number of hits and walks.
I’d say that FIP of 4.6 is pretty reasonable just eyeballing his statistics.
On the Google book version on Baseball Prospectus, there were four names. The only one that was familiar was Chris Young. But I don’t think it was ex-Buc Chris Young. Again, though, it was hard to read.
Since I have a few Marlin guys on my fantasy league, I watch them some on Extra Innings.
Based on the on-air comments, I don’t think the Marlins consider Leroux a great loss.
Not sure what they think of him now.
But as of a year or two ago, he was getting some play in Florida as a potential future closer.
DT
I don’t disagree.
I’m just not sure I see anything there to make me want to make a waiver claim.
I think the Bucs can sign comparable players in the offseason as minor league or MLB free agents.
Vladdy, more bad luck? LMAO
What’d your computer say about Dukes performance last night? Let me guess, bad luck again.
The buc’s better not let Duke leave, he’s way too valuable LOL.
All you have to do is watch a game, I realize your baseball IQ is hovering around 15 or so (if you need the computer to tell you if someone is a good fielder or not) yeah, Milledge is great out there in RF LOL,and Walkers terrible at 2B.
BABIP numbers aren’t always good and bad luck, sometimes guys lose their stuff and throw 80’s flatliners, only the lowest of baseball iq’s cant watch guys throw and realize these things
thanks for your computer geek analysis vlad/nh/47 games under and counting
Hi, Dan!
Always nice to hear from you.
You’re correct, of course, about BABIP not always being a function of luck. A pitcher’s line drive rate can also have a substantial effect on his BABIP. Of course, since Duke’s line drive rate isn’t high enough to explain his BABIP, and since the Pirates’ team defense has consistently been either poor or awful for years, it wouldn’t seem to take a genius to realize what’s going on here…
Vlad
You do know that he’s going to be non-tendered and the Bucs allocate the money elsewhere. (I’m not saying that I’d do that. But I’m convinced the team will.)
But a pitch-to-contact pitcher is not real helpful when you play defense as poorly as the Pirates do.
They might end up doing that, sure.
And it’d be a bad move, and a waste of resources.
There is literally no upside to having a piss-poor defense. We aren’t even getting the advantage of forcing an extra bat into the lineup on the left side of the defensive spectrum, since our starting first baseman is carrying a 94 OPS+. So why not move everybody back to their natural positions?
I agree the defense has been terrible but we really disagree on the culprits
Starting w/ Walker, who turns the double play as well as anyone we’ve had here for years (sanchez included). I’ve watched him catch bloops that most 2B would not reach. Does he need to add some range when going toward 2B, yep but for this being his first year at 2B, he’s been a VERY pleasant surprise. I believe he’ll be a 20-25 HR 80 plus RBI guy, which is huge at 2B,
3B has been rough, anywhere Milledge and Doumit play has been a disaster, Cutch has had some rough patches this year, plus alot of mental lapses as a team.
JR has put this team in terrible situations all year, clement and doumit at 1B, D Young at 2B and 3B, it’s as though he wants to lose (of course he’s lost everywhere he’s been). This organization has NO accountibility, it’s OK to lose. Everyone’s playing well, it’s just young mistakes. This losing mentality is as catchy as the swine flu, it’s why nobody worth a salt really wants to play here.
Complacency when you are losing 2/3 of your games is bad enough, but when you look like the bad news bears in doing so yet nobody gets demoted from starter (they’re safe to be out there every 5th game no matter what), the RF situation is a joke (little league stuff) yet in sept you have guys who have produced well in AAA, are out of options yet you continue throwing the same bums out there on a daily basis. SERIOUSLY, YOU DONT FIND THAT A$$backwards?
Any competent/ competitive by nature GM would be trying to see if Moss,s productive past 3 months carries up here. If Resop’s incredibly dominant starting numbers carried up here (the last thing we need is a 7th inning guy w/ our SP’s). Would have canned a loser JR long ago, we may lack talent but we are underperforming in a big way, playing terrible baseball and terrible fundamentals, How any GM can watch this team play and be satisfied that JR is the answer needs fired himself and for the group crying badluck and nobody can win w/ this group, BALT shoots that stupid theory down.
Defense
I’m still skeptical of measuring defense through advanced statistics. The tests are getting better. But they are really complex and you have to pay attention to the weaknesses and sample size much more than you do for offensive statistics.
My quick thoughts on your post:
1. My eyes tell me Walker is below average at 2b. He may become average at the positions. It’s hard to say because he hasn’t played the position that much. But I don’t see the skills needed to be an elite defensive player. I’d move him to third, where I think he can be above average to good defensively. (I agree he’s been a pleasant surprise offensively. But I don’t see Walker having that much upside offensively either.)
2. Pedro needs to go to 1b. Now. He cannot play average defense at 3b.
3. Doumit has actually been better than I thought in RF. But he’s still bad. He’s even worse as catcher. And he’ll be on the team next year unless the team swallows serious $s in a trade.
4. Lastings and Cutch overcome bad routes because of their speed. I’m more optimistic of Cutch being a strong defensive player than Lastings.
5. DY should never play IF for the Pirates again. Ever.
6. Clement actually played better than I thought he would at 1b. But he doesn’t have the bat to be more than a pinch hitter.
7. I agree Moss plays above average defense. But a reasonable ops for him is .700. You must have better than that in RF with the rest of the line-up. Moss is a 5th outfielder.
Moss
I feel Walker will be an overall average 2B, he has strengths (double play and the tracking of bloops) and weaknesses, but he should improve somewhat as this is his first year. As far as offensively, he has one of the best swings on the team, plus a switch hitter. His power should increase slightly as he matures into that 27 age period.
As far as Moss, he completely changed his approach and put up over .900 OBS last 3 months at INDY, HE DESERVES A CHANCE TO EITHER prove or disprove whether he can produce up here at those levels, And I mean playing daily, not this once a week crap they pulled on Walker last year (that guarantees you fail). What do you lose from giving him the shot? If he carries that production up here, you GAIN a TON. It’s not as though he had Milledges 0 HR’s in 130 AB’s, he produced enough to warrant a look.
As poor as out starting pitching and RF play has been, it’s unbelievable these producers haven’t been atleast tried where our weakness is. (Moss and RESOP)
Given your stated skepticism about UZR and other BIP defensive metrics...
…would you care to offer an explanation as to why and how you think they are breaking down with regards to Milledge and Walker?
in sept you have guys who have produced well in AAA, are out of options yet you continue throwing the same bums out there on a daily basis
Please clarify: about whom are you speaking here?
It's not that certain metrics cant be used
but they cant be used as the gospel. I have had season tix for the past 26 years and played thru college, anyone with any knowledge about the game can tell the difference between a "player: and a guy w/ no baseball instincts.
I was ridiculed in March when I stated they’d lose atleast 100 games this year. I’ve watched/lived enough baseball to know what’s quality and what’s not. If JR is here next year and we dont change this philosphy that losings OK, just young mistakes, NO ACCOUNTIBILTY, and no job competition, well lose 100 games next year too.
First off, I am not a Moss fan at all, but that said, w/ a 2nd half OBS over .900 at Indy, he DESERVES/EARNED a chance to prove his production can carry in the bigs. If it meant displacing Cutch or Tabata, I’d play him off the bench but we are talking about 2 BIG LIABILITIES (Milledge and Doumit). If Moss fails, you lose nothing but if his new approach allows him to produce up here, That’s a high upside/ no risk move for sept plus it allows you to know what you have going into the off season.
As far as Walker and Milledge, only a blind fool would consider Milledge the better fielder, Milledge is a bad news bears type player (in field and on bases) he has NO baseball Instincts. Walker has made some incredible athletic plays that saves hits (a normal 2B doesn’t make) and while he’s limited somewhat w/ range (no worse than J Kents) the plays he makes (bloops in RF and charging choppers) plus turning some double plays that many wouldn’t turn) he’s an adequate defensive 2B w/ a plus bat for the position (and good instincts for most part). Seriously, how anyone can keep a straight face and claim Milledge is the superior player is “SO PIRATE LIKE” these past 18 years.
Duke will and should be non tendered next year if they cant trade him, he has NOTHING. He has no business going out there every 5th day now, RESOP needs to have the chance to prove his AAA numbers can carry in the bigs. That NH feels middle relievers are more important than SP’s is a revelation in itself.
I dont mean to be a dick but many here are touting the bucs and mgmt, (predicting 80 wins LOL) it’s obvious they never played nor can “realize/judge” talent and seeing them spew computer generated metrics to prove we are good (just bad luck) is a complete joke/cop out.
This team is under performing big time, we have some great young talent and alot of garbage. It also has some possible replacements that are probably more productive (Bowker and/or Moss in RF and Resop at SP). The biggest problem with this team is mgmt doesn’t consider winning the top goal, they accept bad play, JR doesn’t put this team in the best position to suceed, the dugout looks like 11th grade social studies class.
Balt has played great since mgr change, the bucs have as just as much talent IMO, but when your LEADER/mgmt is a bunch of non-competitive losers, you’re destined to follow their lead.
3 things need to be done this off-season if we are to improve at all:
a) fire JR and staff, he’s a loser and this team has been terrible w/ him at the helm, Don Long screws everyones stance up, he’s hurt G Jones this year, no stride, just a shuffle toward 3rd base. my personal choice is T Wallach, a good chance to win his 2nd Baseball America MGR of the year in the whole minor league system, he wins everywhere he goes. He’s coached most of our “core” prospects and won with them, he’s a young energetic mgr who’s teams play fundamental ball. I watched a dozen altoona games this year, they have hit and run more in those games than PGH has all year, watching them play was a BREATHE of fresh air. (it’s nice watching REAL baseball w/ enthusiatic dugout and timely hitting/fielding ect….Wallach plays to win and it’s apparent the kids trust and perform for him. He’s an easy choice for this job.
2) Accountibility needs to happen, otherwise you’ll never hit your players potential. Guys need to know that if they perform, they can win a spot and if they dont perform, they can Lose their spot. The buc’s current philosophy is the worst possible in every facet of life (business, school ect)
3) job competiton, if R Owens comes into spring training and outpitches our current bums, he needs to start up here. That includes all out AA guys as well as Lincoln. We need to field our top 5 starters, no questions asked. Starting pitching is the MOST important position on any team, (not middle relief as idiot NH thinks). I believe Wallach would come in w/ a neutral eye and select the guys who GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN…NOW!!
Do all 3 things and this team has a very real chance to win 80 games IMO.
If JR and current philosphy continues, we’ll lose 100 games again, no questions about it.
by Dan Jenkins on Sep 16, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
That was a lot of words.
But no explanation as to how, exactly, you think UZR is being “fooled” on Walker and Milledge.
misplayed flyballs/line drives.playing balls off the walls,throwing to the wrong base
his fielding percentage isn’t hurt nor is his stupid computer computations, That he has to make diving catches on every routine flyball allowing walking tag ups.
Walker makes a great diving catch of a bloop or a great charging play, he saves what is a sure hit w/ 90% of 2B yet that play is judged same as a routine grounder. Turning tough DP’s w/ arm strength and quick turn that 90% of 2B dont turn, it’s judged the same as a routine double play.
Sorry, the computer doesn’t account for hits taken away nor extra bases allowed. It’s a boiler plate equation.
Sorry Vlad, I hate to say that your computer printouts stating that the bucs are just unlucky are pure garbage. Please try watching a few games, if you cant tell the difference between a bum and a player, well your a perfect NH partner.
You appear to be operating under some misperceptions as to how UZR works.
If a player misplays a flyball, and fails to catch one that he should (in a way that doesn’t make him eligible for an error, such as a fundamental route misread that leaves him unable to even get his hands on it), it still counts against him in UZR because the ball fell in his zone of responsibility.
Similarly, if Walker makes a “great diving catch” on a bloop that’s at the edge of what a 2B would be expected to handle, he’ll be appropriately credited with that, for making a play outside of the typical 2B zone. If, on the other hand, he makes a “great diving catch” on a ball that another 2B could have fielded without diving, he won’t get any extra credit just for being theatrical and looking good.
Likewise, the equation does attempt to account for bases saved/lost via outfield throwing and on double play ability for middle infielders. See this link for more information.
Computer scoring alone doesn't work
It’s to used as a tool but in no means should it be used as a decision device (otherwise you end up w/ the bucs)
NH and his computer generated IDIOT SHIFT in the OF, every single to left allowed the guy on first to go to 3rd, every pop up down the line was a double, and every routine flyball to left center had both left and center fielder waiting for it to come down.
The computer said more balls hit to the gaps than down the line, only an idiot (NH and JR) wouldn’t realize that many get caught in the first place and anything down the line was an automatic double. National recognition for the bucs LOL, the computer generated IDIOT SHIFT.
I feel sorry for anyone who can watch this team that’s 49 frickn games under 500 and feel we’re just unlucky. And anyone who thinks Milledge and Doumit are better fielders than Walker.
If a computer tells you that and you believe it, then you are an uneducated baseball fan and a computer geek.
Who is saying that we're "just" unlucky?
People can be both bad and unlucky at the same time – the one doesn’t preclude the other.
Nope ...
hard to argue that you should have a terrible defense.
And no, it’s not like the Pirates are putting a bad defender out there because they need an elite bat in the lineup.
They have the unfortunate combination of bad defenders who can’t hit.
I’d make priority one in the offseason the defense. That’s easiest. Then upgrade the pitching and try to find at least one bat.
But it’s obvious when they look like a 55-win team now. I remember the optimism I had in spring training when I thought they could win 75 games. Oh well.
hopeless pirates
kic the fuckn owner out of town and forfeit the rest of the season.
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