FanPost

Pirate Starters: Quality Starts and Blowups-Added Info

 

I promised to post my criteria. So here it is with some added results.

For each game, I calculated the "Game ERA".

    Game ERA=(Earned runs/IP)*9

I then establish the Type of start based on the Game ERA using the table below:

Game ERA Type
0 HQS
1 HQS
2 QS
3 QS
4 Avg
5 Avg
6 Poor
7 or more BlowUp

For example, if Duke gave up 2 runs in 5 IP (like he did on 4/2/10), his Game ERA was 3.5 making this a QS.

If Duke gave up 8 runs in 4 IP (like he did on 4/26/10), his Game ERA was 18.0 making this a BlowUp.

You make not agree with my criteria, but there it is.

Here is a table that shows the Starters Decision (W/L/ND) for each type of game:

Starter Decisions
Start Type W L ND Total W%
HQS 15 1 12 28 54%
QS 10 11 10 31 32%
Avg 0 15 8 23 0%
Poor 1 5 1 7 14%
BlowUp 2 45 6 53 4%
Totals 28 77 37 142 20%

So the starters got the win 86% of the time they threw a HQS or a QS. Note this is NOT if the Bucs won, but rather if the starter won. So when the starter left the game we were ahead and the bullpen held on to the give the starter the win 86% of the time.

On the other hand, the starters got the win only 18% (3 games) of the time if they threw a Avg, Poor or BlowUp.  Bascially, the offense was only able to rally and let the starter get the win in 18% in Avg, Poor or BlowUp games.

So basically, our starters only have a chance to win if they throw a HQS or QS. Otherwise, they get a loss or no decision.

Our starters averaged per start 5.3 innings, 6.5 hits, 3.2 ER, 1.9 BB, 3.3 KOs, .7 HRs, and had an overall ERA of 5.6. Based on my criteria, this made them Avg but real close to being Poor.

One other interesting point was that while the starter's ER was 3.2, the actual runs that were allowed was 3.6. So our defense added .4 runs per game (on average) to each start.

I will try to do this for another team (I am thinking about the Reds) to see how they compare.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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