"Don't Blame Duke"

by Slick1 on Sep 17, 2010 8:30 PM EDT

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dont-blame-duke/

Given the numerous debates that have taken place on whether or not Duke should be retained by the Pirates I thought this post on FanGraphs was relevant.

Take a look for yourself but in short the post states what we all know, that the Pirates defense and pitching has been terrible. The Pirates have the worst ERA but they also have the second worst defense per UZR (ironically the Indians are the worst) which is why the team xFIP is almost a full run lower than its ERA. That said, the team xFIP is still the lowest in the majors which means that the pitching stinks overall. But even though the pitching stinks, don't blame Zach Duke because he is the same pitcher he's always been and the author makes the case that Duke should be retained next season.

The biggest thing I took from the post was that PNC surpesses the typical HR/FB %. This is important because the rotation is loaded with groundball pitchers with low K totals backed by a poor defense (it also may explain the Pirates record at home vs the road). So if the Bucs don't improve the defense they should consider taking advantage of PNC and look for some flyball pitchers next year. If the Bucs cannot find pitching through free agency a case could be made to release Duke, trade Maholm and replace those two with a combination of Karstens, McCutchen, Burress and Lincoln who are all flyball pitchers. The money savings could be used to upgrade at other positions like SS, RF or 1B. I would like to see the Pirates acquire pitching but it will be interesting to see if Huntington looks to upgrade the defense or find players to take advantage of the home park.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

What I got from this article was that Duke is not really as bad as he seems, but will be this bad on this team.

He’s not an awful pitcher, nor is he a great one. But he is definitely a poor fit for this team. As are a few other pitchers the Pirates are running out right now. I don’t think that Duke should really be on this team next year, but he probably deserves a shot somewhere else. I think the team needs to re-evaluate needs, specific to position. They don’t need a pitcher like Duke who puts the ball in play on the ground a lot, but pitchers with higher K-rates and higher FB% would be a better fit.

by nemo1 on Sep 17, 2010 8:43 PM EDT reply actions

Oh what the heck,

I’ll throw ZD under the bus. Statistics? I don’t have no stinkin’ statistics…I don’t need no stinkin’ statistics.

ZD is a soft-tossing lefty who counts on defense, which we all admit we don’t have, and his ability, such as it was at one time, to get batters off-balance. Given that our rotation was, at least until last year, all cut from a similar mold, it seems that batters have gotten used to ZD and that he is not thinking about patterns and pitching enough to adjust to their adjustments.

Send him on his way – he’ll be forgotten like Kris Benson, Kip Wells, and Josh Fogg.

Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!

by Trogluddite on Sep 17, 2010 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

I resent

you slurring that last name.

by bucdaddy on Sep 17, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

ya don't you EVER!

Josh Fogg was a saint!

by omar moreno on Sep 17, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions

wait a second...

guys, Fogg will only be 34 next year…can we bring him back?? Please please please?

by nickp593 on Sep 17, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather have Kris Benson back

wait, he’s still married to that hot model, right?

Why don't you knock it off with them negative vibes?!

by Trogluddite on Sep 17, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they divorced

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmmm....

Send him [Duke] on his way – he’ll be forgotten like Kris Benson, Kip Wells, and Josh Fogg.

In other words, Duke will have a long, unforgotten life in someone’s memory, yours.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 18, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

If the team is set on non-tendering Duke, they could go in with a rotation of McDonald, Ohlendorf, Maholm, Karstens, and Morton.

Maholm, Karstens, and Morton would be in the same situation as Iwamura, Clement, and LaRoche this season. They would have several weeks to prove they belong. If they’re terrible, we call up Lincoln, Owens, or whoever else is ready in June to fill the void. I’d still make changes to the defense and lineup though.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 17, 2010 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

This is all true but it doesn’t change the fact that Zack and the Pirates aren’t a good match and it’s time they part ways. He needs a good defense behind him to be effective and the Pirates aren’t likely to upgrade significantly in the offseason. Frankly, the Pirates need strikeout pitchers, not “pitch to contact” guys.

Still, if there is a GM who sees Duke as a good fit on his team and doesn’t want to compete against other clubs after a non-tender, maybe Neil can get something for him.

by Aphthakid on Sep 17, 2010 10:30 PM EDT reply actions

can we just say

that Zach Duke is who we thought he was!

HE IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS! AND (if the pirates tender him this winter then they) LET HIM OFF THE HOOK!!!

by nickp593 on Sep 17, 2010 10:50 PM EDT reply actions

The team hasn’t let Duke off of the hook once this season, I will have you know.

http://bleedblackandgold.com/

by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 18, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Blame it on Cain.

Don’t blame it on me.

— the other Elvis

by bucdaddy on Sep 18, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd.

We need somebody to burn.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 19, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

stats

26 starts he has given us 100 runs 91 of which are earned even with the best defense you cant defend the 25 homeruns or the 46 walks.Sure the pirates defense hasnt been that good but i think you can blame duke

by rpw84 on Sep 18, 2010 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

I feel it is incumbent upon me to point out:

A) He’s allowed 23 home runs, not 25.

B) 46 walks in 141 2/3 innings pitched is actually a better-than-average walk rate, and thus not really a fair criticism under these circumstances.

by Vlad on Sep 18, 2010 5:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

rather its 23 or 25 or his walk rate is better than average how do you defend it so i do believe under these circumstances i think they are fair i mean he has 9 unearned

by rpw84 on Sep 19, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I have absolutely no idea what this means, sorry.

by Vlad on Sep 20, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Duke

I’d probably tender him.

But if the Pirates don’t, I won’t moan about the decision.

Simply put, the Pirates will put a number on him. If he accepts that number, he’ll be back.

If not, he’ll be a free agent.

I know he’s more valuable than Matt Capps. But NH played that one well, I think.

If he feels resources an be better spent elsewhere, let’s see how he does.

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

uhhh-greeeeed!!!

by white angus on Sep 18, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Speaking of well-played

The Dodgers just sent Doc Oc, for whom they gave up James McDonald et. al., to the Rox for a PTBNL.

I’m sure BFD1 will insist the Pirates got the worst of the deal.

(Sets bait.)

by bucdaddy on Sep 18, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually

if you tender him, you don’t get to pick the number. If he holds out for an arbitration hearing he will get either his number or our number. And, he’s an “all-star” so it seems risky to tender him unless there is a nudge nudge agreement beforehand that an agreement can be reached.

by Mr. E on Sep 18, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Well ...

that’s not what I said.

I said I’d tender him. My opinion.

I then said NH will offer him a number before the nontender deadline. If he accepts that number, he comes back.

If he doesn’t, NH won’t tender him and will use the resources elsewhere.

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Also ...

even if you release the player in spring training, the contract is not guaranteed.

I think you owe him one month of pay if you cut him early in spring training.

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

depends on the contract, bernie

by white angus on Sep 18, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

White Angus

With Duke, it would be an arbitration award and not be a guaranteed contract.

I’m pretty sure that is the case for all arbitration awards.

Did I misunderstand?

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

that sounds like part baseball and part football

by white angus on Sep 19, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Here is a link ...

http://www.suite101.com/content/how-baseball-arbitration-works-a45599

It depends on when you release the guy and how much you owe him.

But if it’s early in spring training, he gets 30 days pay.

If it’s later in spring training, he gets 45 days pay.

But an arbitration award is never a guaranteed contract.

by Bernie6 on Sep 19, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks for the link, bernie

by white angus on Sep 19, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

so the dodgers traded mcdonald and lambo for a player to be named later

awesome.

by white angus on Sep 18, 2010 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

I notice ...

that no MLB team has been so overwhelmed with Bob’s insights that they hired him.

by Bernie6 on Sep 18, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Bob is so far ahead of the game

that his keen insight won’t be recognized as the genius it is until after he passes form this mortal coil.

Pity, really.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 19, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

back to Duke simple put

No small-market team should pay 5-6 million for a #4-#5 starter when you have someone like Brian Burres who has the same stats as Duke (if not better) but a league minimum.

Same goes for Maholm but unfornately he needs a big year next year in order for the Pirates to get anything back of value.

by BadAndy on Sep 18, 2010 6:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Unless the defense improves...

Particularly the IF defense, Maholm is unlikely to have a big year. I guess that’s the point of the whole post. Take a look at Paulie’s numbers and you will see that he too is a victim of this defense. I would expect a similar season from Paul next year if nothing changes. Maholm is scheduled to make almost $6M dollars next year. I don’t see Duke getting that much. So, if we don’t improve the defense having both of these guys on the roster would be a waste of resources. If we improve the defense enough to make it worth keeping Maholm then Duke should definitely be retained too.

by Slick1 on Sep 18, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

i so disagree

duke and more or less maholm have both given the pirates all that they can give. on a team with pitching depth, they would be in the bullpen or trade bait easily. a defense can do only so much. the career BA against for Duke is over .300, and its because he is hittable, and he hasnt changed anything over the years. BUT, i say resign him and hope he pitches better the first half of next season and deal the guy to a team with great defense, so we can continue this argument then.

by white angus on Sep 19, 2010 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I know you do...

I read most of your discussion with Vlad. What you call “hittable” I call pitch to contact groundball pitcher. His contact % is way high, that’s his game. His line drive % is not (way high). It’s a little higher than league average (and up a bit from his career average) but not enough to sound the alarms or explain the huge jump in ERA. The fact that you challenge the importance of defensive impact on pitching likely means we will never see eye to eye on this topic. In 1992 Zane Smith had a 3.06 ERA for the Pirates with a K rate of only 3.57/9. He was a true sinkerballer who relied on defense. I’m not saying that Duke was as good as Smith but go check out Smith’s career K numbers and tell me he didn’t need a good defense behind him. Anyway, my entire point rests on the premise that I don’t think Duke will improve without a better defense so retaining him in that scenario would be pointless. While I would like to see the Pirates add a pitcher who can strike some people out I think it would be easier for them to upgrade the defense though I don’t think they will.

by Slick1 on Sep 19, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions