Pick the Best Relief Pitcher

by Slick1 on Sep 19, 2010 11:24 AM EDT

	K/9	BB/9	FIP	xFIP	tERA	avgDIPS	BABIP	Age
a	12.66	3.23	2.77	2.83	2.82	2.81	0.337	28
b	10.53	5.95	3.40	4.06	4.20	3.89	0.301	28
c	10.13	1.93	2.34	3.40	2.46	2.73	0.399	29
d	7.42	3.41	3.41	3.72	3.40	3.51	0.241	27

OK, I've included some defense independent pitching stats and placed them above with the pitcher's age. I ask you to pick out the best relievers from that group; or at least order them from best to worst. There are many articles being posted lately about who the Bucs will tender contracts to next season. Out of the group above, if you can tender three, who would get contracts? The decision seems pretty straight forward doesn't it? Based on the avgDIPS column (simply averaged FIP, xFIP and tERA) the best pitchers are c, a and d right? Obviously they should be tendered contracts. I guess if you like K's more than you hate walks you could make a case for b over d. Either way, the first two choices seem pretty straight forward correct?

Well what if I told you the player's name and ERA. The stats belong to the following players below (with season ERA):

a) Hanrahan (3.52) b) Resop (4.12) c) Ledezma (6.27) d) Meek (2.07)

That's right, by the advanced pitching stats used above Ledezma is the best relief pitcher on the team (by avgDIPS). I make this post because just about every article I read lately about the Pirate's roster decisions discuss Ledezma being cut because of his performance. Heck, I read posts all the time about how Ledezma should be dumped right now yet many want to try Resop as a starter (his numbers with the Bucs are better than his total but still not better than Ledezma's). Now Ledezma has only pitched in 15 innings but he has accumulated more WAR (.3) in his time with the Pirates than Dotel did when he was here. Plus, given his high BABIP (.399), his numbers are likely to improve the more he pitches. He is also following a minor league season in Indy in which he completely dominated the competition. Yes his ERA is ridiculously high but again, so is his BABIP (.399). If you want to cut him because he will likely make $1M next season (and you think the Pirates can do better with the money) I can understand the reasoning. If you want to cut him because you don't like the way he looks, well that's your perrogative. If you want to cut him because you think, based on his career to date, that he is pitching over his head and is unlikely to repeat the perforance going forward that would make sense. But cutting him because of his ERA is exactly the kind of decision making that landed the Pirates Joel Hanrahan.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Is it a bad thing that I knew who the players were going by the stats at the top?

I’ve been fairly impressed by Ledezma. I think the walk rate is a small sample thing, though. From 2007-2009 he pitched 123 innings in the majors and was walking over 6 batters per 9. In AAA this year he threw 38 innings and was walking 4.5 batters per 9. I don’t think you can draw too many conclusions based on > 20 innings he’s spent in the majors this year.

by ElDuce on Sep 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Agree on the walk rate and the sample size.

I guess my whole point is that based on that sample size, just about everyone has made up their minds that Ledezma is no good when actually every stat but ERA says otherwise. A lefty who can throw 94-95 and K over 10 per 9 innings sounds pretty good to me. We signed Lopez for $1M this year so why not keep Ledezma next year? It would be nice to have a lefty in the pen.

by Slick1 on Sep 19, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

And for the record...

Resop has the same sample size issues as Ledezma yet everyone wants to pencil him in as the 7th inning guy next season or try him as the 5th starter. Funny how hung up most people still are on ERA even though its shortcomings have been well documented.

by Slick1 on Sep 19, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

sold, you sold me slick

will stays

by karreemofwheat on Sep 19, 2010 11:55 AM EDT reply actions

+1

Good post, I must admit I was a Ledezma doubter before I saw those stats…I picked him from the group and nearly spat out my drink when I saw it was Ledezma…

by smoked on Sep 19, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

ive liked what ive seen from ledezma

and this post just made me that much more confident in him. i hope we hang on to him. great post!

by omar moreno on Sep 19, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't get too excited about Resop or Ledezma. They both deserve a shot next year,

but there are plenty of other relief arms we can look at too.

by patthatt on Sep 19, 2010 6:21 PM EDT reply actions

Ledezma

I would have said he’s been okay if you asked me (and without looking at his statistics).

I’d try to bring him back as a non-roster guy. If that didn’t work, I’d offer him under $1 million and see if he took it.

You make a good point.

At the same time, the sample is too small to mean much. Sample is a key factor with complex statistics. Moreover, his larger sample, his entire MLB career, is not good.

But a lefthander who throws 95 is not meaningless.

by Bernie6 on Sep 19, 2010 9:32 PM EDT reply actions

I prefer Ledezma to other internal options (Bass, McCutchen, Jackson, etc.) so it would be hard to complain too much if he made the roster.

by Adam Reynolds on Sep 19, 2010 9:42 PM EDT reply actions

More than keeping Ledezma

this post made me want to sell high on Meek in the offseason.

If we could get a good, young SS, RF, SP, or 1B I’d be all for it. Obviously if we need to toss in some other expendable pieces we could (Doumit, Jones, Cedeno, Maholm, Duke, any number of solid but unspectacular minor leaguers).

by Mr. E on Sep 20, 2010 3:43 PM EDT reply actions

I was waiting for someone to post that...

He is way outperforming his periperhals and is most likely in for some regression next season. I like him but anytime you can get a solid regular for a relief pitcher you do it…IMO.

by Slick1 on Sep 20, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions