It's time for the What-if Game: Zack Greinke
by Coxswain on Sep 19, 2010 11:58 AM EDT
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So we seem to have some valuable minor leaguers that may be playing the same position. We've heard Frank Coonelly say we will see a meaningful increase in payroll next year.
What if we decided to ship some of our prospects to KC for Zack Greinke? Laugh if you must, but adding him along with JMac as a two, Ohly as a three and Maholm as a four is a heckuva start. That would leave Brad Lincoln, Brian Burress, Kevin Hart, Charlie cough (sorry I almost threw up in my mouth a little bit there), Jeff Karstens, etc. as possible fives for us next year.
Would a package of Evan Meek, Justin Wilson and Andrew Lambo be enough to get Greinke, and would it be too much to give up? Would substituting Owens or Locke for Wilson make it a go?
Remember this is the what-if game, so reality has to be suspended a bit here.
I see this as a win-win for both teams. Meek has proven himself to be a legit top reliever, Justin Wilson and Andrew Lambo are considered high end prospects. Greinke is a top-end starter who will be under control until after the 2012 season. That's two more years for Cutch, Alvarez, Tabata, and Walker to improve. That's two years to find an answer for RF in Jones, Bowker, Pressley, Marte, etc. We could see Tony Sanchez making his debut and splitting time with Chris Snyder.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn’t have to give up that much!
He would be a nice addition but...
1) none of the packages you suggest are even close to enough
2) why would KC want to trade him?
3) if you answered because Greinke is unhappy in KC it’s because he doesn’t think the rebuilding effort will take effect before he becomes a free agent…what do you think he’d say about ours?
4) we are not in a position yet to be trading for players like this yet…Greinke would require an A prospect or premium young player like Alvarez and our top pitching prospect while likely adding in 2 more players. We don’t have the guns to compete with the big boys yet. We’d get outbid by the Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees.
Dayton Moore doesn’t seem to be the best GM when it comes to the major league team but I don’t see even him making that deal.
royals would want a MLB ready pitcher thrown in any deal
mainly because greinke is the only MLB ready pitcher they currently have, kinda.
Would a package of Evan Meek, Justin Wilson and Andrew Lambo be enough to get Greinke, and would it be too much to give up?
No and no.
Would substituting Owens or Locke for Wilson make it a go?
No again.
I see this as a win-win for both teams.
You need to look a little closer. This deal would cause riots in KC.
I think more than that.
Phillies gave up 4 top 10 prospects for Lee and Greinke is younger than Lee was.
That was just a starting point. Sorry for not clarifying. It would take some throw-ins.
by Suffering Buc on Sep 19, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It would take way to much to get Grienke, and IMO he isn’t really the ace we need. 3.90 ERA with 7.5 K/9 is good, but I don’t think we should give up the moon to get him.
A better, and cheaper candidate for us would be either Matt Garza or James Shields. They wouldn’t take nearly as much prospects to obtain, because the Rays are dumping money. I also liked the idea of Fausto Carmona at the deadline, and wouldn’t mind revisiting that trade.
If we could put together a Garza, Carmona, Maholm, McDonald, and Ohlendorf to start the year, and have Morris/Locke/Wilson/Owens/Lincoln in AAA, we could make a decent rotation out of the 10 of them.
Keep in mind...
that like Maholm and Duke, Carmona is a groundball pitcher who would be relying on the Bucs defense to be successful. If this defense, particularly the IF defense, is not upgraded you could expect Carmona to tank the same way Maholm and Duke have. He would be an upgrade in that he has been able to post a better LD% over his career but he is not enough of an upgrade to make me want to part with anything significant. I do like the idea of Garza or Shields if the cost isn’t too much…I expect it would be though.
Well...
Cleveland’s defense is pretty bad, too, their team UZR is actually even worse than ours. So there probably wouldn’t be that much of a drop off.
clevelands UZR is bad, but their fielding % is actually good
im not so sure about these really detailed stats any more, seriously.
Really?
The big difference I explained to you already in another thread. You know as well as I do that errors are judgment calls made by people who can be influenced by many factors. How many times have you seen an error called to keep the star pitcher’s ERA down or a base hit it given to the hometown slugger that was clearly a routine play booted by the IF? Fielding %‘s entire usefulness is looking at the number of plays converted to outs. It’s entirely dependent on errors which are judgment calls that vary from scorekeeper to scorekeeper. The other problem with fielding % is that it does not reward player’s with more range for getting to balls that slow players don’t. It would be like saying that Jack Wilson (2009 version) is equal to Aki Iwamura (2010 version) because they had the same fielding % (hypothetical but possible). If Doumit at the end of next year has the same fielding % as Tabata at the end of the year are you prepared to say that Doumit is the better defender? It could happen if Doumit decides he’s not going to make a play on anything that isn’t hit right to him. There are so many flaws with fielding % that using UZR or plus/minus (even with their flaws) is a major upgrade in evaluating defensive abilities. Defensive stats continue to evolve and UZR will likely evolve as well or it will be replaced with new stats. But for right now, it’s the best system out there. And while we, and more importantly scouts, are not available to watch every play from every player around the league, UZR and plus/minus does look at every play of every player. It’s an unbiased measure. Does it have flaws…yes. Is it a better measure than the traditional means for evaluating defense (fielding %)…absolutely!
sorry, but still technical for me
i saw marked improvement in Cedeno’s since the wilson trade. thats what I PERSONALLY go by…
Justin Smoak got Cliff Lee
Lee and Greinke are similar, except Greinke has 2 years left before free agency and Lee had only a few months, so that’s a lot of value to make up.
Justin Smoak and Pedro Alvarez were considered similar at the time of the deal, so that might be a good place to start.
I would say Pedro Alvarez and Tony Sanchez together could probably get you close to Zach Greinke.
But I don’t think the Royals will trade him. I think they are going to try very hard to keep him, and Greinke will try very hard to sign with them. Greinke is a special case because he doesn’t like the spotlight and so many of the big market teams are not going to be a good fit for him.
Perhaps....
Meek, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata & Pedro Alvarez could probably pull in Greinke!
I’m not sure how in the world that Meek, Lambo & Wilson would be a win for KC???
they WOULDNT be a win in KC
who happens to have some of the best prospects in baseball, whom will also flame out because KC always drafts players that dont play well in Kaufmann stadium. chances are moustakas and hosmer will not put up the numbers they did in the minors, so their minor league pitcher better be awesome enough to carry the team
Didn't you read the post?
Alvarez and Smoak are just about even. Heck, Pedro might even be considered more valuable at this point, given Smoak’s demotion back to AAA.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
Arb clock could have had a bit to do with it
but he really wasn’t doing anything to warrant being in MLB. Smoak also spent almost no time in AAA. I think it was definitely the right thing to do.
by MarkInDallas on Sep 21, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Smoak got demoted?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
According to Eastern Seabord Programming Network,
He was recalled 9/18.
Didn’t know he had been sent down. How narrow is my view?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 21, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
More likely.......
Rather than looking at Greinke, what do you suppose it would take to pry Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros??
Think of it this way
The Yankees offered Montero for Soria, and the Royals shot them down.
Grenkie would command much more than that. Realistically, if we don’t include anyone from our current class (a PTBNL), it would take something like Sanchez, Marte, Morris/Locke/Owens + another high ceiling flier – Grossman for example. Meek or Hanrahan may be interchangable with Marte in that scenario.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 19, 2010 11:52 PM EDT reply actions
Im not sure that would even get it done...
Keep in mind, while Marte has trendous upside, he also has tremendous bust potential (ala Gorkys) because he is all tools at this point, so KC probably wouldnt value him that highly in a trade. I dont think you get Greinke without trading Alvarez, and even then I dont know that we could put together a package good enough that they would like.
Realistically, KC's minors are loaded with depth...
they would want an impact player, and given their needs, I would think they would target McCutchen. The thing is, McCutchen has more value than Grienke, both for the years of control at lower salaries and because (believe me) anxiety disorders aren’t just magically cured and over with forever- Grienke’s could come back at any time. Therefore, I would want one of Moustakas/Hosmer on top of Grienke. We could then move Tabata to center, at least for a couple years while we wait on Marte.
Note: I am not suggesting that we do this, but believe that McCutchen for Grienke+Moustakas/Hosmer would probably be the skeleton of any deal that would bring Grienke to Pittsburgh.
so it would take moose or hosmer WITH greinke to get that deal done?
dude, if the royals were dumb enough, i would say goodbye to cutch today. but theres no way mccutchen has more value than a young power pitching with good control cy young winner… nuhhhhhh uhhhhhhhn.
McCutchen absolutely has more value
Because 1) Grienke had a down year this year.
2) His struggles with anxiety make him at least somewhat of a risk…and most importantly…
3) He is only under contract for 2 more seasons at a high price, whereas McCutchen is under control for 5 more seasons, at least 1 more of which will be for peanuts. It’s not like McCutchen is a guy that doesn’t have a pedigree, either.
You're wrong on this one angus..
I can’t think of too many teams that would prefer 2 years of Greinke over 5 years of McCutchen, outside of those with good young CF’s already (Arizona, LAD, etc)
Cutch for Greinke and Gordon sounds about right to me. The difference between Cutch/Greinke isn’t so great that Hosmer/Moose or Butler would be included, but Gordon might be a possiblity in this far-fetched scenario.
But Gordon is starting to reek of the Andy LaRoche/
Jeff Clement/Lastings Milledge “once top prospects who have turned out very mediocre to bad” thing. I wouldn’t go for that…I would be willing to part with one of the Altoona guys to get Gordon upgraded to Moose or Hosmer.
There’s no chance the Pirates would ever keep Greinke. He was badmouthing the Royals for rebuilding a few months ago, and the Pirates obviously aren’t wining anything next year. With Greinke and a Garza/Shields trade, even, the Pirates are only an 80-win team at best, and that’s with Alvarez, Walker, and Tabata all tearing the cover off the ball all year, plus MacD and Ohlie holding up.
by Suffering Buc on Sep 20, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why would we deal McCutchen?
2 years of Greinke for 4 of McCutchen sounds pretty unfair. If they both had just 1 year left, I don’t know if I’d do it. If we had a manager who actually pushed McCutchen, he would probably be the second best CF in the league (right behind C. Gonzalez)
Agreed. Greinke regressed too much this season for me to trade Cutch for him, even if the yrs. of control were even.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
To get Grienke, Cutch makes the most sense
Look at the post at the bottom-the Royals wouldn’t really be interested in any minor leaguer as the centerpiece. Well, Taillon maybe, but that won’t/can’t happen.
No Pirates ML pitcher is similarly suited to be that centerpiece. Alvarez, as good of a prospect/young player as he is, would be yet another corner IF power bat, which KC is bursting at the seems with and would like, but not really need. McCutchen, a CF, which they don’t have, would make more sense.
But I am of the opinion that Cutch’s value dwarfs Grienke’s by a pretty wide margin (most others here agree, except white angus), so KC would need to add Moose or Hosmer to make it worth it. Of course, maybe if Cutch’s value exceeds Grienke’s by that much, we should just trade Tabata for him instead.
Anyway, none of these are actual suggestions, more like a triangulation of trade values.
most teams would prefer Greinke over McCutchen
and by most teams, i mean the top 2/3 payroll teams. a power pitcher who is still young is always more valuable than a CF who, quite honestly, isnt near the best at his position. this is not a slam against Andrew, just a fact.
Charlie Morton is also a young power pitcher with 93 MPH heat, is he better than McCutchen? While it’s true he’s not near the best at the position because Josh Hamilton and CarGo have pulled far ahead of the pack, those two aren’t full-time center fielders and McCutchen is comparable or better than the rest.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i spit up my tea when i saw morton and greinke in the same sentence
would be nice though, wouldnt it?
For whatever it's worth...
…prior to being the stud starter that he is today, Greinke nearly quit the game due to mental issues. Makes an interesting point of comparison for Morton, maybe?
well said, vlad
never even thought about that comparison, but we all know morton was never the prospect that greinke was… i dont think morton is depressed, just confused
His Idea was, I think
was to prove that while “young power pitcher<all” might be a nice, simplistic sentiment, blanket statements like that are foolish arguments to actually make. And again, to look at young power pitcher vs. potential five tool CF in a vacuum, without considering salary and years of control, is really just silly, isn’t it?
You know that just cause they have money...
Greinke might still not necessarily resign there, for personal preferences or whatever. Years of control are also important for those reasons. To an extent, I can see what you’re saying (maybe the Yankees would place Greinke above Cutch, maybe) but I think the vast majority of teams would prefer Cutch.
i seriously doubt that...
if i were a GM, i would SOOOOO value greinke over cutch, and thats not slighting andrew at all. doesnt matter that greinke was not as good as he was last season; it would be hard for anyone to follow up a year like he had. hes still one of the best in the game, and sorry but cutch nor anyone else in our whole system is near greinke.
Steinke’s peripherals in 2010 match up with 2008. He’s young, but theres still a chance 2009 is a career year.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 21, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
obviously you dislike greinke
or you wouldnt have thrown a steinke in there, so im guessing this is a biased opinion… lol
Cutch is one of the best in the game.
Grienke, putting aside contracts, might (emphasis on might) be >Cutch, but taking contracts into account, the choice is pretty obvious. And again, Grienke’s history of anxiety makes him pretty volatile long-term.
Wow
Give it a rest with the numbers and use the eye ball test.
Zach duke and his bp fastball is trash. Maholm isn’t very far behind him. We need pitchers, not bums.
You people disgust me. Think you know everything.
by Jake The Snake1 on Sep 20, 2010 5:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
"Give it a rest with the numbers and use the eye ball test."
The eyeball test is what told us that Chad Hermansen could walk on water.
For the record.
Much more than that, Vlad. Don't sell yourself so short.
Kris Benson, Chris Duffy, Tike Redman, Ronny Paulino, etc.
by Suffering Buc on Sep 20, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm…
You people disgust me. Think you know everything.
I guess that’s because you think you know everything?
by MarkInDallas on Sep 20, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
HEY!!!!
What do you mean “you people?”!
by Slick1 on Sep 21, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What do you mean “you people”?!
:-)
by MarkInDallas on Sep 21, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fun topic ...
… but in another way, ridiculous to even waste bandwidth talking about.
The Pirates have nowhere near the kind of prospects it would take to pry Greinke from the Royals, unless you’re interested in parting with, for starters, Alvarez or Andrew McCutchen.
Sorry, but Evan Meek, Justin Wilson and Andrew Lambo won’t get it done. And no, Dayton Moore won’t be swayed if NH sweetens the pot and includes Phil Irwin or Aaron “Olerud” Baker. Hell, all that likely wouldn’t be enough for David DeJesus, let alone upper tier talent Soria or Greinke.
Yes, the farm is much better than in 2007. But my God, the way some people talk up the Pirates’ minor leaguers, you’d think the team had by far the best system in baseball and was a dynasty waiting to happen.
Baker isn't even close to Olerud.
People forget just how good Olerud was. The year he was drafted, he didn’t play a day in the minors – just went straight to MLB as a 20-year-old. The next year, he put up a 117 OPS+ as his team’s everyday 1B, at the age of 21.
When Baker was 21, he was hitting .247 in rookie ball.
vlad, you are so correct
olerud was a very good player. didnt go to the minors until his final season in boston. OBP of just under 400. great with the glove. did all of this after getting beaned in college, and people questioned if his head would let him continue to play.
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