Bucs vs. Reds SP

by zogger on Sep 19, 2010 1:06 PM EDT

As promised in my other two postings, here is a comparison of the Bucs (50-98) vs. Reds (84-65) SP.

First traditional stats:

Stat	Pirates	Reds
Games	145	149
Innings Pitched	5.4	5.9
Hits Allowed Per 9	11.0	9.1
Runs Allowed Per 9	6.0	4.4
ER Per 9	5.5	4.1
BB Per 9	3.2	3.1
SO Per 9	5.6	6.6
HR Per 9	1.2	1.1
ERA Per 9	5.46	4.13

Note that the stats are adjusted to be per 9 innings (except for Games and Innings Pitched). Also Bucs have 4 less games due to the Jakubauskas and Ohlendorf injury starts plus the Reds have played 1 more game.

Comparison based on my HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp:

Start Type	Pirates	Reds	Pirates	Reds
HQS	28	50	19%	34%
QS	34	29	23%	19%
Avg	23	24	16%	16%
Poor	7	10	5%	7%
BlowUp	53	36	37%	24%
Total	145	149	100%	100%

Below the jump is the comparison of the two SP staffs.

Some observations:

Reds SP averaged a half inning more per start, 2 hits less (per 9 innings), 1 KO more, and 1.3 ER (per 9 innings) less.
The Reds overall Sp allowed 1.6 runs per 9 innings less that the Bucs!
Reds have 31% Poor/Blowup to the Pirates 42%
Reds have 53% HQS/QS to the Pirates 43%
The Reds defense added .3 runs per 9 innings while the Bucs added .5 runs.

Aside from the 1.6 runs per game less, on the surface, the Reds SP dpes not look that much better than the Bucs, but the Bucs trail the Reds by 33.5 games! The table below may give a clue:

	Bucs	Reds
Start Type	W%	W%
HQS	54%	58%
QS	32%	62%
Avg	0%	21%
Poor	14%	10%
BlowUp	4%	3%
Totals	20%	36%

The Reds starters got wins in 62% of their QS and 21% of their average starts. The difference is probably the Bucs poor offense.

Comments?

Bucs:

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp
Maholm	30	13%	30%	20%	13%	23%
Duke	26	19%	27%	4%	4%	46%
Ohlendorf	19	32%	26%	16%	0%	26%
Karstens	19	11%	42%	11%	0%	37%
Morton	14	0%	21%	29%	0%	50%
Burres	10	40%	10%	10%	0%	40%
Lincoln	9	11%	0%	33%	0%	56%
McCutchen, D	8	25%	0%	13%	25%	38%
McDonald, J	9	44%	11%	11%	0%	33%
Eveland	1	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%
	145	19%	23%	16%	5%	37%

Reds:

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp
Arroyo	30	30%	33%	7%	3%	27%
Cueto	29	45%	14%	14%	3%	24%
Leake	22	45%	14%	18%	5%	18%
Harang	19	11%	32%	26%	11%	21%
Bailey, H	16	19%	13%	6%	19%	38%
Wood, T	14	36%	14%	29%	14%	7%
Volquez	10	50%	0%	10%	0%	40%
LeCure	6	17%	17%	33%	0%	33%
Maloney	2	50%	0%	50%	0%	0%
Dempster	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%
	149	34%	19%	16%	7%	24%

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

our offense

HAS been woeful this year overall.

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 19, 2010 8:59 PM EDT reply actions

The offense has been bad but...

if I’m reading your charts correctly the Reds have almost double the number of quality starts. That’s a pretty significant number. Also, 1.6 runs per game is also a pretty significant number. I would look at your numbers and say that the Reds pitching and offense is much better than the Pirates.

by Slick1 on Sep 19, 2010 9:05 PM EDT reply actions

I can't add anything insightful.

But I’m a bit of a statistics nerd, so thanks for posting this. Its interesting, at the very least.

by downandout on Sep 19, 2010 10:18 PM EDT reply actions

Looking at most of the defense independent stats, the Reds starters have been pretty mediocre. Better than the Pirates, but not better than many other teams. They rank 14th in the NL in xFIP (Nationals 15th). The areas that really separate the teams have been the offense and the defense. I think the only regular who hasn’t provided average or above defense is Gomes, The only one who’s really struggled with the bat is Cabrera. For the Pirates you have to list the ones who haven’t struggled.

by ElDuce on Sep 19, 2010 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

FollowUp

Slick1: If you add the HQS and QS together, the Reds (34%18%) have 11% more HQS/QS than the Bucs (19%23%). Also, the more I think about it, 1.6 runs per game is a lot. But remeber this is an average. So giving a lot of runs can push the average up quite a bit.

ElDuce: Interesting that even though the Reds staff is not tremendously better than the Bucs, the Reds have won ~34 more games than the Bucs. Offense and defense can help, but is that the difference? Or is it the ~15 games the Reds SP pitched HQS/QS that the Bucs did not? Take 15 games from the Bucs loss column and place them in the win column and the Bucs are 65-83, still not as good as the Reds.

Next look at the Avg. starts. The Reds SP got wins in 21% of their Avg starts, but the Bucs SP got none!

by zogger on Sep 20, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions