Of the 2010 Pirate Rookies this year......
by lfhlaw on Sep 28, 2010 1:24 PM EDT
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PrintI know we've all talked about movement of players and possible new players to be added and subtracted to the buccos, but i thought it would be fun to discuss next year as far as...(and hopefully this wasn't posted before since I've been checking the fan posts occasionally)
Of the 2010 Rookies..
Is there a Dark Horse that will surprise the Buccos next year (a la Neil Walker)?
Who will regress?
Who will make a major leap in progress from this year to next?
Of all the current pirates on the team, who will rebound to have a good year next year (assuming 2010 bad year)?
Right now I think Andrew McCutchen has played well, but I was hoping for much after his rookie season, so hopefully he plays and rebounds much better next year.
There's a good chance Neil Walker regresses...I don't know why I say that but to me it just seems that he's played so well this year beyond my expectations that I expect the other shoe to drop sometime.
Pedro Alvarez would be the easy pick to make the major leap in progress from this year to next year, but I think Jose Tabata may make more progress next year (i.e. hoping for a bit more power).
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Rudy Owens will be Duke ‘05 in the 2nd half.
Lincoln struggles to start the year, gets moved to the pen and then puts up a Meek ’09 type year.
Pedro fails to truly break out, but will hit more HR’s than his K%
Maholm will put up better numbers early and then be packaged with Meek in July for a young, AAA 1B.
Justin Wilson will quietly be ‘05 Maholm.
Danny Moskos and Chase D’Arnaud will have success as September callups.
Bryan Morris will spend the whole year in AAA and be up and down.
It’s announced next August that Neal Huntington signed a 5 year contract extension 3 days ago.
Ok, so this had nothing to do with what you asked but oh well.
I'd love if Tabata and Cutch..
could become our little NL version of what Tampa had in Upton and Crawford. Both are capable of stealing 40 bases, and have 10-20 HR power.
with those two
we should be near the top of the league in steals. my greatest wish is for those guys to get on often and run wild on the bases
it could happen!
plus both cutch and tabata are better ballplayers than upton who is pretty much just a really good athlete
and maybe one day d'arnaud or even ciriaco can join the stealers
get it… the pittsburgh stealers?? heh??
Ascanio, Hart
look for those to make that trade look a lot better. As far as rookies, my dark horse is Jordy Mercer, he is going to learn a lot in the AFL and start the whole second half at SS.
I'll play the game
Is there a Dark Horse that will surprise the Buccos next year (a la Neil Walker)?
I would say Rudy Owens, but he had such a great Double-A season that perhaps he wouldn’t really be a dark horse. I love D’Arnaud, so I’ll pick him.
Who will regress?
Hope I’m wrong, but Neil Walker.
Who will make a major leap in progress from this year to next?
Alvarez. Fingers crossed.
Of all the current pirates on the team, who will rebound to have a good year next year (assuming 2010 bad year)? Zach Duke.
ZD
I hope you’re right, then we can trade him and get a decent return.
by BlindSquirrel on Sep 28, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Dark Horse
I think maybe Gorkys, but who knows. all of this is just speculation.
Playing along...
Dark Horse: Jeff Locke, hopefully he continues to dominate at AA early to get to AAA by May/June, and continued success into a August call-up? I hear he has that wicked curve…a la Barry Zito?
Regress: No one. Statistics may level off but I think everyone is playing well. I feel like NW and Tabata stat lines are right were they should be, so i dont see reason to think things will be worse, if anything, things will be better with them here all year.
Major Leap: Dan Moskos. Power Lefty out of the pen that we have control over for 6 years would be something fancy. Struggled at AAA this year but I think he has the potential to get here next season.
Rebound: Pedro Alvarez. Not really a rebound and not really a leap forward, but I just see major progress being made in the K% and as well as Avg. If that happens it certainly suggests a big year from him, but its not like he will be making a major leap, he’s already here for a reason.
i'll play along too
dark horse: eric fryer
regress: eric meek
major leap: diego moreno
rebound: charlie morton
yeah, i know the last one is wishful thinking. lol
Who is this
“eric meek” you speak of?
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 28, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Cedeno is at 1.0 WAR...
with defense declining rapdily the last 4-6 weeks so I expect that WAR to drop further the next time UZR is updated. He is currently at -8 DRS per plus/minus (as I stated last night). If he regresses any further he will implode! I don’t get the warm fuzzy over Cedeno of late. I think SS should be an area we look to upgrade next year if possible (and no I’m not talking about our internal options). I was much more excited with his play in the first half because his defense looked solid but I have seen a lot of poor plays from him lately. Don’t know this for sure but it seems like he has made almost half dozen or more errors since being annointed next year’s starter. Can’t help but think the mental lapses are serious enough to prevent him from ever taking a serious step forward.
I think that a lot of the "warm fuzzies," as such..
…come from people looking at the FA SS class and not really seeing anything that would be a clear upgrade on Cedeno. And SS prospects seem to be going at very high prices over the last year or two. There just aren’t a lot of good alternatives on the table.
Good point...
Though I’d definitely be kicking some tires on players like Bartlett, Lowrie, Hardy, etc. to see if I could get one for a reasonable price. It would be nice to at least have a decent alternative pushing Cedeno if we are unable to get a clear upgrade. Any bounceback candidates out there? Our IF defense when looking at plus/minus is atrocious. I just don’t see it improving a whole lot as is and it does appear that Huntington seems set on going into next year with Jones at first. That would obviously mean Alvarez at 3rd so the defense will remain unchanged and I’m skeptical we’ll see significant improvement through experience alone.
I think even the bad FAs would be an upgrade (Guzman, Hairston, Tejada). Cedeno doesn’t hit or field, and some of those guys do at least one or the other.
Free agents don’t really matter at this point because Rendon will make our offense good in a couple years hopefully, but if there’s one guy to replace in the 2009 lineup then I’d have to go with Ronny. Garrett would be close, but he also has a solid season on the major league resume, and would be easier to make a platoon.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 29, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing short of a gun...
…would get me to agree to use Guzman or Tejada at short at this point.
Honestly, I might even rather get shot, as long as it didn’t hit anything vital.
as soon as i start bragging about cedeno's defense, the last 2 weeks have been atrocious
remind me to shut up next time
by white angus on Sep 29, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
In the first half...
…he was playing a lot better.
He’s really gone into the tank over the last week-or-so.
True
though his hitting seemed to pick up at some point in august. If only he could put them both together. Maybe Ciriaco can surprise next year. I actually confused him with Cutch at the plate last night so that can’t be a bad thing.
I'll take a stab
Dark horse: Locke. I know lots of us are expecting him to be called up mid-summer, but I bet he pulls a ’05 Duke and really impresses out of the gate.
Regress: MacDonald, a bit, but he’ll still be our best starter. As much as I hate to say it, I think Walker’s BA will fall too.
Leap forward: I like Snyder’s approach, I think he could put together a nice season now that he’s settled in.
Rebound: Morton? Please? Even if he could be a passable 5th starter it’d be a rebound at this point.
Only if given the chance
positive surprises/ step forward: Bowker if given the opp to play regularly….Resop shows he’s one of our two best arms in rotation and has great year…Tabata’s power/ average increase to a .328 9 HR year, if JR is gone, I’ll predict 40 SB’s min….Alvarez looks to be getting comfortable, big time jump after slow start. Owens comes up and does his best T Glavine inpersonation.
Negative surprises/ step backwards: Hanrihan proves to be a better set-up man than closer…Cedeno’s attention span drops even further…OLLY will be hurt again unfortunantly…Karstans luck runs out…If coaches are the same, we break our own record for fewest hit n runs ever attempted in a season along w/ getting guys thrown out on the bases.
Probable mismanagement moves: 1)Resop stays as reliever though he’s had 2 seperate issues already w/ sore/dead arm in only 20 innings or so of relief work ( I trust ATL’s pitching scouts much more than PGH’s, if they say he can only start because of arm issues, I believe them)…and he blows his arm out by Mid year. 2) Doumit and Milledge go back to RF’ers and combine to be the worst hitting/fielding combo RF in the league again.3)Sanchez comes back healthy and hits .300 in high A for 1/2 year before smelling Altoona..4) Owens and a possibly another young starter dominates in spring training yet gets “BEAT OUT” by a bum like Buress,Karstans, ect…another babysitting/winning right now isn’t important lesson of life.
probably mismanagement moves???
are we already insulting the FO for things that happen NEXT SEASON??? WOW!!!
by white angus on Sep 29, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, in Dan's defense...
Huntington already announced that Resop would be competing for a bullpen job next year. That and he did say probable. So I guess the only thing to do is counter that with probable best management moves like:
1) the reported Jones hand placement on the bat thing is legit and returns to a 30 HR / .360 wOBA threat.
2) corrected Morton’s pitch tipping problem and mandate that he never shake off a catcher and he becomes a serviceable #3/#4 starter.
3) NH hires Ozzie Smith as defensive instructor and the WIzard casts a spell on the IF transforming them from a -40 DRS IF to a +40 DRS.
Damnit, sorry Angus!
I know I promised to stop that, Vlad hooked you up though. And yes, it is also a Cadillac Sedan!!!
this is a simple game
you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes… its rains. think about that.
I trust ATL’s pitching scouts much more than PGH’s, if they say he can only start because of arm issues, I believe them
I’ve heard this from you before- got a link?
by BurgherKing on Sep 29, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get this
I’ve heard that before too. I don’t understand.
This is not meant to be snide, I’m just curious: has any other pitcher in history been labeled with this tag? Sure lots of guys are better in one capacity or the other, and lots of hard-throwers don’t have the ability to start, but I don’t get why he could start but not relieve.
Somebody enlighten me?
Possible...
Bobby Cox felt he needed a full 5 days to rest his arm. He is the kind of guy who doesn’t hold up when pitching back to back days. That was the belief anyway. I don’t know of any other examples off hand though. Sounds like a question for Vlad, he can usually dig up answers to obscure questions.
Oh, okay
That kind of makes sense. Still seems like the strain of throwing 100+ pitches at a go would be more demanding than 15 pitches every other day, but maybe the guy’s just got weird physiology. Thanks for the clarification.
There have been guys...
…who couldn’t work on back-to-back days. Quite a few of them, in fact. We actually have one on staff right now – Chris Leroux.
If one of those guys has the in-game stamina to start, it would seem to make sense to use him in that role.
I think i remeber hearing about this with Papelbon. I could be wrong, but it was a few years ago. I believe they were working him back into the rotation because of this, but he ended up staying in the closers role. Cant recall where i read it at though, sorry.
by BuccoBrigade on Sep 29, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Two each for you gentlemen
Dark Horse: Justin Wilson, Colton Cain
Regress: Neil Walker, Evan Meek
Major Leap: Zack Von Rosenberg, Matt Curry
Rebound: Charlie Morton, Pedro Alvarez
i dig it
but how does pedro rebound when hes only played half a season? does that mean he gets sent back to AAA? >:P
He probably means rebound back up to the high expectations.
That’s how I interpreted that… this year was his “off year” and next year he will be producing at the MLB level like he did in AAA.
I don’t really think of that as a rebound, though. More like just adjusting to the league and all that. I think he is starting to settle in and work things out and will have a great year next season, if the past month or so is any indication.
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