Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects: September 2010 Edition
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 29, 2010 3:44 AM EDT
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PrintThe last prospect list from July wasn't much fun to write, as a huge swath of the Pirates' farm system had fallen victim to injury. This one was a lot better, not only because there were a lot more players to pick from after an excellent draft, but because most of the other players were as good as or better than they were expected to be. As always, the grades just provide a rough guide, and most unproven players get C's as a default, not because they did anything wrong. Also, the rankings and grades on the recent draftees will obviously be pretty speculative until we get to see more of them.
1. Jameson Taillon, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: N/A. The Bucs' top 2010 draft pick is an easy choice for the top of the list. He's huge, his fastball is in the high 90s and moves all over the place, he has two good breaking pitches, and he has a change (which he didn't need to use much in high school). He's awesome. He's rated an A- instead of an A only because I don't think it's responsible to make a high school draftee who hasn't pitched a pro inning an A, and he'll have to run the injury gauntlet here in the next couple of years. In the limited number of scouting videos I've seen of him, he also leaves his fastball up a lot, which of course poses no problem with high school hitters who aren't able to catch up to it. We'll see how that works in the minors.
2. Tony Sanchez, C. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 1. Despite Sanchez missing a big chunk of the season after getting hit in the face with a pitch, there isn't much reason to dislike him at this point; he's a very good defensive catcher, and he hit very convincingly at Bradenton this year. One potential problem is that his swing is a bit slow, which could lead to lower averages in the majors. In any case, his glove should easily carry him to the majors.
3. Bryan Morris, SP. Likely 2011 level: Indianapolis. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Morris' ERA rose a bunch at Altoona compared to his brilliant start at Bradenton, mostly due to walks and homers, but he has the right combination of numbers, pedigree and stuff to make it as a starter in the big leagues, hopefully beginning in late 2011.
4. Stetson Allie, SP. Likely 2011 level: State College / West Virginia. Grade: B. Previous ranking: N/A. Like Taillon, Allie throws incredibly hard, but concerns over whether he can maintain his stuff over the duration of an entire start make him a slightly lesser prospect. Still, he was arguably the second-best prep pitcher available in the draft last year.
5. Starling Marte, OF. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 3. There's still a lot to like about Marte, but thanks to his hand injury, this season answered very few questions about him. He still doesn't walk nearly enough, but it's tough to complain about that until he finds a level where he can't bat .315. Hopefully he'll stay healthy throughout 2011.
6. Luis Heredia, SP. Likely 2011 level: GCL. Grade: B. Previous ranking: N/A. It's always hard to know what to make of a 16-year-old pitcher, but this kid is 6-foot-6 and throws 93 MPH, his bonus was many times larger than any the Bucs had ever given a (non-Cuban) Latin amateur before, and the Pirates are convinced he can survive against much older competition.
7. Rudy Owens, SP. Likely 2011 level: Indianapolis. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 4. Owens moves down three slots due to the additions of Taillon, Allie and Heredia, but moves up from a B- to a B. Owens might not be the hardest thrower, but 92-MPH velocity isn't bad for a lefty, especially given that Owens mixes it with a good curveball and excellent command. He's been the Pirates' minor league pitcher of the year twice in a row; it's time for me to ease up on my skepticism about him.
8. Zack Von Rosenberg, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia: Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 6. Von Rosenberg struggled in his first few starts this year for State College, but was brilliant in his last ten, with a 2.11 ERA and 3.5 strikeouts per walk. He's a good breakout candidate next year.
9. Andrew Lambo, OF. Likely 2011 level: Indianapolis. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: N/A. Lambo plainly has some work to do after posting a .732 OPS in Class AA this season, but he was once the Dodgers' top prospect and he held his own in Class AA as a 20-year-old. He'll be in the Arizona Fall League, and after that, maybe Kyle Stark and the Pirates' development program can help him take the step forward that he hasn't these past couple of years.
10. Jeff Locke, SP. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 10. In my last list, I wrote that Locke had been at Class A+ for too long and needed to be moved up. Well, the Pirates promoted him to Class AA, and he posted almost the same excellent statistics there that he'd had at Bradenton. My guess is that the Pirates will have Locke start at Altoona again, but a handful of good starts should earn him a promotion to Indianapolis.
11. Justin Wilson, SP. Likely 2011 level: Indianapolis. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 5. Wilson drops pretty severely here with all the additions, but he had a perfectly nice year. After struggling a bit in his first few starts, Wilson was spectacular in May and June before adding a few walks and tailing off a bit, but only a bit, down the stretch. He ended his season with a very good start in the Eastern League championships. Command and control will be his biggest issues going forward - this year he had about a walk every other inning, which is perhaps partially a result of getting a lot of movement on his pitches, but he needs to do better to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.
12. Colton Cain, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 8. Cain had a strange, but mostly promising, season at State College in which he mixed occasional starts where he got hit hard with more frequent ones in which he dominated. He, Von Rosenberg and Taillon should form the core of an excellent West Virginia rotation this year.
13. Alex Presley, OF. Likely 2011 level: Indianapolis. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 18. Presley has tailed off a bit since the last list was published in early July, but he hit well enough in Indianapolis overall to show that his performance at Altoona to start the year wasn't a complete fluke. His size and unimpressive pedigree still limit his upside going forward, so the Pirates will probably want him to keep proving himself at Indianapolis next April.
14. Nathan Adcock, SP. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 7. Ranking Adcock No. 7 last time was probably a bit too aggressive; he doesn't throw particularly hard, which could keep him from moving forward at the higher levels. He deserves a chance to prove that, however, since he now has two full years at Class A+ under his belt.
15. Robbie Grossman, OF. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. Grossman's numbers this year don't look impressive, but he's still a good prospect, and he made significant strides cutting down his strikeouts in 2010 despite being young for his level. He'll clearly draw plenty of walks, so he has the potential to be a serious pest if he can keep the strikeouts in check.
16. Mel Rojas, OF. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: N/A. Rojas didn't hit much at State College, but he was the best, toolsiest position player the Bucs chose in the 2010 draft (which admittedly might not be saying a whole lot, since it was a very pitching-heavy draft). Also, he came from a junior college, so his initial struggles in pro ball might not portend any serious problems.
17. Jarek Cunningham, IF. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 11. Cunningham got hot in June and July but tailed off badly in August. Still, his overall line (.258/.309/.436) wasn't bad, particularly given that he missed all of 2009. The ball jumps off his bat, and his power is surprising for a player with his size and build, but he struck out four times as often as he walked this year, and he'll need to control his strikeouts if he wants to display that power in the majors.
18. Nick Kingham, SP. Likely 2011 level: State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: N/A. The Pirates' fourth-round pick has good stuff and a big, projectable body. He made a couple of appearances in the Gulf Coast League this year and pitched well. If the Pirates' treatment of past high school pitching draftees is any indication, don't expect to see Kingham until midseason.
19. Chase D'Arnaud, SS. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 9. I thought D'Arnaud's slow start was nothing to worry about, but it lasted most of the season. He could be at either Altoona or Indianapolis next year; Pedro Ciriaco, Brian Friday and Argenis Diaz will all vie for time in the middle infield in Indianapolis and in Pittsburgh, while D'Arnaud, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison and Brock Holt could all be at Altoona or Indianapolis, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out in camp, assuming all those players are still with the Pirates then.
20. Diego Moreno, RP. Likely 2011 level: Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 14. Moreno has missed time since the last list with injury and an unspecified disciplinary problem, but he still has outstanding upside for a reliever.
21. Quinton Miller, SP. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 15. It was a lost season for Miller, who missed lots of time due to injury and then didn't have a good overall line at West Virginia when he was healthy, but don't forget about him. Even in a bad 2010 season, he had a number of starts in which he posted great numbers, and he was apparently still throwing hard. I'm just guessing he'll be sent to Bradenton, in part because there will be a lot of starters at West Virginia already, but that might depend on how Miller looks in camp.
22. Trent Stevenson, P. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 12. You know the story with this guy: ridiculously tall, projectable, doesn't strike a lot of batters out yet, good control, needs to eat as much as possible. He remains an interesting project.
23. Nate Baker, SP. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. The Pirates promoted Baker to Bradenton midway through his first full pro season and he survived. He could easily be in the Pirates' rotation in two years, but doesn't seem likely to have much upside once he gets there.
24. Zack Dodson, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: N/A. The 2009 fourth-rounder posted solid numbers at State College despite being unable to rely on his curveball, which is his best pitch. He had trouble with his control, but as WTM points out, he improved as the season progressed, with only nine walks in 26 innings in August.
25. Zachary Fuesser, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: N/A. Fuesser has flown under the radar since being drafted in 2009, probably in part because he was about the eighteenth "Zachary" the Pirates took, but he quietly had a very good year at State College, posting big strikeout numbers for a 19-year-old. He did walk a batter every two innings, however.
26. Exicardo Cayonez, OF. Likely 2011 level: State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Cayonez faded a bit down the stretch but still managed to hold his own in the Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old. He's already in a corner outfield spot, so he'll need to hit a lot as he moves up the ladder, but he appears to have the tools to do it.
27. Victor Black, SP. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 19. He was the Pirates' second pick in the 2009 draft, he has a big arm, he was hurt, don't forget about him, etc.
28. Brooks Pounders, SP. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 16. Pounders has been pretty much as he was advertised when the Bucs drafted him. He doesn't rack up strikeouts despite his big frame, but he throws strikes. His season at State College revealed a disturbing trend, though - he registered about two outs in the air for every one on the ground, and he allowed five homers in 41 innings, which is too many. These tendencies could eat him alive when he faces hitters with more power.
29. Tim Alderson, SP. Likely 2011 level: Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 17. If Alderson doesn't improve out of the gate next year, he might not make another one of these lists, but until then, he deserves to be here. Despite his atrocious 2010 season, he has achieved a lot for someone so young.
30. Matt Curry, OF/1B. Likely 2011 level: West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: N/A. Curry had the most impressive debut of any 2010 draftee and appears to have a broad set of hitting skills that includes power, patience and the ability to hit for average. We'll see next year if he was just beating up on the less experienced competition at State College.
Don't forget about: C Joey Schoenfeld, 1B Jared Lakind, 1B Matt Hague, SS Pedro Ciriaco, IF Josh Harrison, IF Jordy Mercer, SS Brock Holt, SS Drew Maggi, SS Jorge Bishop, SS Yhonathan Barrios, 3B Jeremy Farrell, 3B Eric Avila, OF Gorkys Hernandez, OF Quincy Latimore, OF Evan Chambers, OF Rogelios Noris, OF Dan Grovatt, OF Adalberto Santos, OF Willy Garcia, SP Ryan Hafner, SP Brandon Cumpton, SP Tyler Waldron, SP Vincent Payne, SP Brett Lorin, SP Joe Martinez, SP Phillip Irwin, SP Jeff Inman, P Tony Watson, P Jhonathan Ramos, RP Danny Moskos, and probably some others I myself have forgotten about.
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Comments
Mercer
I have to think they are hoping for a good AFL, so he can be packaged in a trade for someone!
Victor Black
I’d forgotten about Victor Black. Though I probably shouldn’t have forgotten about a guy whose name makes him sound like he’s a Batman villain.
I know. His name's unbelievable.
I want him to turn into an ace just so every fifth day we can trot out Victor Black. Just sounds cool. Be an awesome closer name too. I have no idea what his walk in music would be though.
Good idea
What about, “God’s Gonna Cut You Down”?
That was my first suggestion.
(In case you can’t hit YouTube links from work.)
I could also see a good case for “When the Man Comes Around”.
Vlad
Actually, I needed to prepare for a student meeting and didn’t get a chance to click on your link.
My mistake.
I had remembered Black had gone to a Christian school. Throw that in with the Johnny Cash and his brand and you have a great choice.
Well done. (And no conscious effort to steal your idea.)
I think
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5PQGIAuB8s would be intimidating and somewhat creepy as a batter.
Prospects
Charley, thanks for putting this list together. We’ve come a long way in the past three years. I’m sorry, but I just can’t get excited about three guys that haven’t yet thrown a pitch in organized ball. When they’re tearing up AAA, then I’ll get excited.
As I look at the list, I see four, maybe five guys who might possibly have a chance to make some kind of contribution to the Pirates next year if their skills, luck, the competition and Pirates management give them the opportunity: Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Lambo and Presley. Of course, there’s always the unexpected, injuries, etc., to change the picture.
Lino Donoso
Just for fun (or aggravation) ...
Compare it to DL’s boys from 2008.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/8/20/595184/pittsburgh-pirates-top-20
My favorite part about the link:
Pass the Prozac.
The Pirates have suffered from years of trying to build a farm system on the cheap. They’ve had some bad luck as well, compounded by bad decisions in trades. Overall it has been a recipe for disaster.
In 2007...
…Pearce hit .333/.394/.622 (including 31 HR and 75 total extra-base hits), stomed through three levels of the minors, and finished the year by putting up a .740 OPS in a cup of coffee with the big club. He also won Minor League Hitter of the Year.
So at that point, a B+ was pretty well-deserved, and that 2007 success is part of the reason people like me were willing to stick with him through an uninspiring 2008.
Vlad
I may have given him a B+ one year earlier.
But I’d have given him a B based on the additional year of statistics.
A slight difference. But I tend to view A-/B+ guys as good chances to have a solid career.
I put Pearce in that next category down.
The 2008 grades...
…are issued before the 2008 season.
You can see from the entry itself that Sickels posted Pearce’s B+ grade on January 6, 2008 (with the linked post being a recap of how the players on the 2008 list ended up performing in 2008).
And Pearce didn't get a grade in the 2009 lists...
…because by the end of 2008 he’d already exhausted his rookie eligibility, which is the criterion that Sickels uses for determining who is and isn’t a “prospect”.
If he hadn’t, though, I imagine that Sickels would have cut his grade a notch or two, as you suggest.
My second mistake on this post
I need to call it a day.
That's not MLH for the team, by the way.
It’s MLH for the entire affiliated minor leagues.
Oh, and I almost forgot. He also played in the Futures Game that year, and then helped Team USA win a gold medal in the Baseball World Cup.
He was pretty good that year, is the point I’m trying to make.
No, he didn't.
At first, I thought you were just confused about the year of the grade, but when I checked the numbers, Pearce has never hit .208 in the majors in any season (or .258 at AAA in any season, for that matter).
So now I don’t have any idea what you were talking about.
that's where I got my info.
2) Steven Pearce, OF-1B, Grade B+
.258/.310/.425 in Triple-A, .208/.259/.292 in the majors. Was 2007 a fluke? Or is this “I have nothing left to prove in the minors so why didn’t you give me a job” discouragement syndrome?
that might be off. I do know that hind sight is 20/20
Ah, I see what's going on.
You thought those were full-season stats. In the linked post, Sickels was actually reviewing his preseason grades based on the players’ year-to-date performance – but the season wasn’t finished yet. As such, none of the rate stats in it match the actual end-of-year stats Pearce put up, since they weren’t done playing games at that point.
yes, it's tremendously encouraging
to see the number of interesting names past the top 30, given that only a couple years ago anyone past the top ten was almost a lock to never sniff the majors.
double wow
i agree… we’re so much deeper that charlie pretty much took Gorky’s completely out of the picture.
wow
can you imagine what would happen if the position players on your list actually made it to pittsburgh. marte, lambo, grossman, cunningham, d’arnaud. 750 strikeouts, 12 home runs from these 5 guys .250 b.a. but they can steal bases.dude hit reset and start
your list over
projectability
is for people who can’t read stats to have a job
this
is the most absurd thing i’ve ever heard. You’re saying stats have no place in projecting players?
stats
are the only tool. projectability is garbage
Really?
The fact that a guy may grow four inches and added 40 pounds means nothing?
they
can either square up the baseball on the bat or they can’t. if they are fast or can rebound a basketball doesn’t matter.you can’t steal 1st base. 150 strikeout a season in the minors never make the bigs unlessthey have massive power.
My 10-year-old ...
can square up a baseball.
He is also 4 feet, 3 inches and 50 pounds.
That’s not going to make it in MLB>
lol excellent
he can already square up a 90 mph fastball? lets put him double a and see if he can hit off-speed
You didn't say a 90 mph fastball
Quote: theycan either square up the baseball on the bat or they can’t.
So, I guess, you are changing your perspective?
Eddie Gaedel reference FTW...
And next year’s the 60th anniversary.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 30, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
so what's your point?
stats indicate that projectability is useless?
Do stats say that players will continue to do tomorrow what they are doing today?
Do they say that players don’t improve with time?
find
the players for propect lists whose stats improve as they climb levels, not whose stats decline and then say i project them to improve
so which player and which stat
are you talking about, that has been getting worse? (just asking so I can find the players)
ok
look at grossman and marte at high a stats. d’arnaud at double a. tell me the propectedness of these guys. they are on the lists because of their draft round, not their ability to play baseball. if you hit 240 and strikeout 120 times in a season at high A or double A you need to be left of the propects list for a year. i don’t care how fast you run. lambo stuck out 33% of the timein double A, leave himoff the list for a year
they are on the lists because of their draft round
You wanna say that about grossman and marte? lol, go take a look at their draft rounds!
I m not sure what you’re arguing here. If you’re saying you’d have them lower on the list, fair enough. Your argument though was “stats are the only tool, projectability is garbage”. If you want to argue it, I can find comps (or Vlad may already have below). If you don’t wanna argue it, don’t say it.
pardon me
you are correct i meant signing bonus, not draft round
sorry
i’m a little out of my league here. i’m just saying if call guys who have actually done something( farrell, holt, mercer,hague) prospects, you might be more accurate than projecting players who had poor years(marte,grossman,cunningham,d’arnaund,lambo)
Sigh.
1) Marte is a twig. He comes from a third-world country. He didn’t eat burgers growing up. As he continues to live in America, he will have more opportunities to add muscle and power.
2) Marte had surgery on his wrist that is well-known for sapping power for a couple years.
Alright, back to your playpen.
ok
lets take him off the top 30 propect list for a couple years
Why?
Can we actually say that Starling Marte is not a top 30 prospect based on any criteria? That’s idiotic, but then again, this is the schlep we’re talking about here…
Exactly ...
he had the same surgery as Pedro did.
It takes a year for the power to return.
Unfortunately, the Schlep thinks he knows better than real baseball scouts.
Here are some stats for you:
Player A: 21-year-old in AA (Eastern League). 465 AB, 21 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 26/13 SB/CS, 39/62 BB/K, .271/.335/.385 slash line. Played 115 games at SS, 19 errors, 57 DPs, .960 F%. Also played a total of six games at 2B or 3B.
Player B: 21-year-old in AA (Eastern League). 443 AB, 19 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 29/12 SB/CS, 41/98 BB/K. .278/.354/.409 slash line. Played 57 games at SS, 27 errors, 18 DPs, .876 F%. Also played 28 games at 2B, 5 errors, 9 DPs, .963 F%.
Player C: 21-year-old in AA (Texas League). 390 AB, 16 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 6/5 SB/CS, 38/78 BB/K. .254/.322/.377 slash line. Played 109 games at SS, 35 errors, 68 DPs, .932 F%
Player D: 21-year-old in AA (Texas League). 304 AB, 20 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 15/6 SB/CS, 17/55 BB/K, .296/.373/.467 slash line. Played 78 games at SS, 13 errors, 44 DPs, .965 F%.
Please place those players in order from best prospect to worst prospect, using the stats in front of you, and explain why you picked the way that you did.
I'll bite, Vlad, at least on the ranking.
1. D, though he needs to improve his K/BB numbers.
2. A
3. B, way too many errors at short.
4. C, huge error total and the worst hitter.
excellent
you gonna tell us this list is a-rod, jeter, ripken, and babe ruth
I'll give you stat links to the players in question...
…after you make your choice, so that you can see for sure that I’ve been playing honest pool.
If you don’t need scouting info on these players (and how “projectable” they are), then what are you afraid of?
I can also confirm...
…that none of them are Babe Ruth. To the best of my knowledge, he never played shortstop as a pro (and if he did, it must have been quite a sight).
Player A, Player B, Player C, and Player D are all still active players as of this year.
ok i'll bite
since we’re talking SS’s here
D. reasonable errors good power needs to walk a little more K a little less
A. low errors and low K’s decent line
B. try him at 3rd or right field
C. convert him to a catcher lol
I'll take a stab as well.
1. Player D. Statistically, looks like the best hitter, overall, and it would seem he can handle short.
2. Player B, though I would move him to second or third in a heartbeat.
3. Player A, because he is better overall than Player C in terms of stats.
4. Player C, because I seem to have named all of the other players.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
I would have had about the same order. Two busts at the top of the list, two good players below.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 29, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Answers!
Player A is Hanley Ramirez.
Player B is Hiram Bocachica.
Player C is Carlos Guillen.
Player D is Angel Berroa.
That was amusing and educational although I had to disqualify myself for looking up Hanley’s slash lines earlier this season.
I would also add that Angel Berroa turned out to be older than 21 when he put up that but it doesn’t take away from the fun.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 29, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Fun exercise Vlad. I picked Player A (Hanley) because he had the best contact rate and K-BB ratio while still showing some pop — contact and ratio, I think, are the best indicators of future success, absent any information about body type, athleticism etc.
I had Berroa 2nd over Guillen, but it was a tough call. Though he has the best name, Boca was a clear last because of the terrible fielding at short.
This is a trick question, innit?
They’re all the same player.
Aren’t they?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 30, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
CONGRATULATIONS!
You took a good point (that the Pirates are relatively short on quality position prospects now that Alvarez, Tabata, and Walker are up) and put it in such idiotic terms that everyone is now disagreeing with it.
I love reading these breakdowns Charie
Thanks for putting them together. Really makes me smile seeing all this talent listed. That potential WV 2011 staff of Taillon, ZVR, Cain, Pounders & Stevenson should dominate. Very exciting to say the least.
I know we have control of most of these guys for quite a while, but who on this list is most likely to be lost if not protected in Rule 5 this winter? I know there are some difficult decisions to make this offseason.
actually
actually after looking at their stats again these 5 guys might produce 1000-1100 K’s in a season. you need some rbis. players who hit 0 hrs in 200 ABs in highA or strikeout 30 peercent of the time in double A aren’t prospects
I'm neither of the those guys...
but I would rank Rendon #1 in front of Taillon and both Cole and Purke would be #2 behind Taillon as of right now. I think Cole has potential to shoot ahead of Taillon with a strong season next year but as of right now I like Taillon better as a prospect.
Yeesh.
Tough to say with Rendon – I’d want to see him in game action post-injury before I rate him anywhere at all. If he’s healthy, he’s probably at the top of the list, but there’s no way to know until we see how well he moves with his rebuilt ankle.
I’d have Purke in front of Cole, and Taillon in front of both. Still very early, though.
Be hard for it to have been worse.
The initial reports made it sound like the foot was only held onto the leg by a thin strip of gristle.
what about
Sanchez and/or Odor? Maybe low teens?
by hilltoppeer on Sep 30, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else think
we should give Morris and Locke a chance to start the year at Indy. I mean Owens, Morris, Locke sticking together as a pitching unit would be a cool thing to see, not to mention i think all deserve the opportunity at Indy come spring
nope
i’d rather they stayed on their current schedules, with Locke making it to Pitt around June 2012. Morris may make it in 2011, because if he can start 2011 the way he did 2010, he should be in AAA by mid-May.
I m hoping to see Owens and Wilson carve up AAA :-)
I don't know...Locke had a great year at AA
so I don’t know how much of a point I see in keeping him there. Morris maybe; that may depend on whether Lincoln comes to Pittsburgh next year. If Lincoln is sent down to Indy, they could have a rotation of Owens, Locke, Wilson, Lincoln, Watson…and Morris could stay in Altoona.
There are variables with Morris. Given his past issues with consistency and durability, I could see two schools of thought with him: either we should get him up to Pittsburgh ASAP to maximize what we get out of him, or we should be extra cautious with him.
Pitching
I’d send all to AAA.
But I suspect Locke will be at Altoona for a month.
The problem with that is...
You need 1 or 2 Brian Burres or DCutch types in AAA that can shuttle up and down with injuries. You dont want to be calling prospects up due to an injury unless they are coming up for good. So you figure you had 3 spots for legit SP prospects in AAA. Would seem to me Owens is a lock to start in AAA, and maybe Wilson, but I would be Morris and Locke start in AA
It's a legit point ...
but they can shuffle to Pittsburgh as easily from Altoona as they can from Indy.
I’d rather have the useless guys, Burress or Cutchsuck, at the lower level.
Challenge the guys who actually could have a future in the rotation.
Agreed. Put the Burres crap in Altoona if needed and challenge the prospects when they’re ready.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 30, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I m hoping they’ll give at least 15-20 starts to Locke at both levels (and to everyone else). There are lots of lessons to learn. Sometimes, when you are new, and good, the league will take a while to figure you out. Once they do, you’ll need to figure out a few things to do better, and that’s the learning process. Hopefully, they’ll go through that. I’d strongly recommend a full year at both levels for everyone, unless they are totally dominating and the stuff they have backs up the fact that they should be dominating like that.
Morris- depending on what we think and what he does, he could be prime trade bait.
I think the pitchers will set their own timetables. If they dominate, move them up, whether it’s to Indy or Pittsburgh. I wouldn’t hold someone in Double-A or Triple-A just to give them experience, especially given the attrition rate for pitchers. If it appears they can succeed, I’d rather they use up their bullets in the majors.
No
he’s taking time to worship his Bob Smizik poster.
And maybe ...
I’m winning the lottery this week.
Entitled to your opinion
Since this whole post is about future performance, everything is a projection. You’re certainly entitled to your guesses too. But I dont agree that a player will always perform the same way as he has in the past, as your post suggests. I’ve seen way too many athletes that suddenly “get it” to go along with the god-given talent they had (and anyone on this list has that talent). Like-wise I’ve seen plenty who were "can’t miss " prospects that never accomplished anything.
just saying
if a players BA gets down around .240 or his Ks have a 1 in front of them and you look in the HR column and it doesn"t start with at least 15 or 20 take him off the prospect list. if his BA is 280 and above and his K/BB is good put him on the list. adjust and the list will look more accurate in a couple years in hindsight
Disagree
I get your point, but disagree. If you’re right, the Bucs would have cut/traded N. Walker years ago; now look at him. And if we follow your logic using a differnet sport, there’s a guy that could’nt make a shot and got cut from his HS Basketball team – so he obviously couldn’t be a prospect, but MJ turned out to be pretty good
walkers stats look good
every year except maybe 2008
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=435522
he wasn’t in danger of being cut
Walker ...
this is off the top of my head. It’s late and I’m too tired to look up stats.
But it seems it took him a second year at every level to be even an average player.
I looked at his minor league numbers before and saw a guy with 15 hr pop who hit .220.
That’s why the scouting part is just as important.
Another example: Dustin Ackley. If you look at his numbers this year, there are 50 guys in the minors with those numbers.
But he’ll likely be a solid MLB star.
Statistics help, but it’s far more complicated to predict who will be a star and who will blow.
Now, being we have officially clinched the number one overall pick I have a major question for this organization that is the “best in baseball.” It has been stated by both scouts and management from both outside and inside the organization Pedro Alvarez physically won’t make it at third base and now we are going to hopefully set to select a more fit and defensively talented third baseman in next years draft. So can anyone explain to me why we haven’t started working Pedro at first base whether it be in practice or by assigning him to winter ball?
Even if we choose Rendon, Pedro is going to play third in 2011 and 2012. Assuming Rendon comes back healthy and destroys college pitching:
June 2011 Rendon drafted.
Aug. 2011 Rendon signs.
Apr. 2012 Rendon starts at Bradenton.
June 2012 Rendon moves to Altoona.
Apr. 2013 Rendon starts at Indy to keep service time in check.
June 2013 Rendon arrives in the show.
So Pedro has plenty of time to learn the easier defensive position.
Michael Dubee
Can’t understand why this guy didn’t even get on the; ‘And Don’t Forget" list. He put together a very solid year with The Curve. And talk about a name to talk about…104 should have a field day singing the praise of having a Dubee in the bullpen.
Pirate Prince Bob...No explanation should be necessary!
by Pirate Prince Bob on Oct 2, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions
Adalberto Santos
Adalberto Santos is extremely talented he could’ve been in the top 30 he has alot of power & was impressive at state collage only problem is he’s pretty well blocked
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