The 1b/RF 2011 Mix
by pittiful89 on Sep 3, 2010 10:12 AM EDT
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PrintAs we all know, RF and 1b have performed at a consistently terrible level for the Pirates this year, but we still have lots of (now a little less) interesting fringy players to sort out. In addition, this is probably the most likely area where the FO will go albatross-hunting to appease the fanbase, with the possible exception of starting pitcher. So how would you handle these positions in 2011, and how do you see it working out?
Here's how I would handle it: platoons. I know this is a dirty word for Russell, but in my opinion, we have at least 1 good platoon in of itself between Jones and Milledge. I know Jones' numbers against righties aren't actually overwhelming this year, but I believe that his approach to hitting so messed up by facing left-handed pitching day in and day out, and its affecting him against righties. I also believe that if Pearce is healthy, he is a guy who mashes left-handed pitching, and would make the obvious other half of a 1b platoon with Jones. So (for now), I'm gonna go with Jones and Pearce at 1st. If Pearce isn't healthy, then maybe it makes some sense to go out and get a 1b.
As for Milledge, I would give first crack at platooning with him to Bowker in RF. Moss and Doumit will probably both be gone by next year, so Bowker is the obvious first choice. Behind Bowker, Presley gets second crack if he can put in a reasonable follow-up to this excellent season.
Now, for intermediate guys to throw in the mix, I am really high on Hague- the more I look at his numbers, the more I like him. Consider: his HR/AB ratio outside of Altoona, a pitcher's park, is about 1/22- not all that bad. Also consider that his HR numbers and his K/BB ratio have each IMPROVED as he's moved up to AAA. Finally, he has 9 homers since the start of July. He may not be a guy to set the world on fire (although I do think he's capable of 20 homers), but he is genuinely an excellent hitter. I know we look at OPS, see that his isn't in the .900 range, and write him off, but his OBP, which is by far the more valuable component, is very good. And his K/BB numbers may indicate that he won't be overmatched against higher competition.
Long-term, Marte and Lambo will start next year at AA, and have a chance to be everyday players at these positions.
Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Doumit
I am not so sure he will be gone. I think especially because of the fact that none of the others in the mix have stepped it up, Doumit could actually be a viable RF option OPSing about .800. I also think his glove has a chance to be OK there… not great, but adequate. Doumit/Milledge might work.
Hague is a guy I like a lot, but because of his age, and the inevitable adjustment in the bigs, I doubt the chances are good that he has more than 1 good season as a 1B. Still, it’s encouraging to see his line, and I hope he can crack it! He has a 1:1 K/BB, an 11% or so K rate, and 15 HR. The HR count is not special but he is 24 and could add a little more power. If he can do so without sacrificing average, then he could be an .850ish OPS guy and that’s more than we’ve had in a while.
I have been a propent
of getting rid of every semi-established player out side core. With better players rising through the system, the pirates need to move Malholm, duke, doumitless, karstens, cendeno, and garrett. To see what they have in clement, Lincoln, Ollie, Friday or Diaz, Bowker, Marteniez and Morton. Before people like Mercer/D’Arnaud, Heauge/ Anderson, morris, wilson, locke, owens, Lambo are ready for their big leauge spots. I know that could make for an awful 2011, but the pirates aren’t going to challenge for pennant next year anyway, and I think I’ve tempered expectations for real strength to 2013 as opposed to 2012, but no. 1 overall draft choice post-2011 season is much more valuable(in theory) than say a 6 or 8th overall pick.
i disagree about cedeno
unless d’arnaud really steps it up. cedeno is now one of the better fielding SS’s in the game. we all need to realize that hes not as bad as we thought.
That's what I'm saying
if he has value he needs to be moved. The pirates need to give these guys a look, instead of holding on to players who aren’t going to be part of a winner. I’m also starting to get higher on Jordy Mercer, Cunningham is having a pretty good bounce back year as well.
Friday and Diaz don't need a look,
they aren’t good. And why can’t Ronny be here in 2012 and 2013? He’s 27 now, no reason he can’t play til 30 minimum.
And why can’t Ronny be here in 2012 and 2013? He’s 27 now, no reason he can’t play til 30 minimum.
Hopefully not. Rice-a-Ronny is having a career year (wouldn’t expect this production next year from him), and he’s still below-replacement level combined over six seasons. Looks like an upgrade spot unless we’re going for “Rendon II” in 2011.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 3, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree we would be ok upgrading SS
but they aren’t easily available and I strongly disagree with this dude’s alternatives. Of our 4 need positions, I’d place SS 4th in priority behind RF/1B/C. It’s not like free agency has many upgrades either, I see JJ Hardy as the only one so I think our best strategy is to keep Ronny and hope for a big year from D’Arnaud in Indy next year. After that, it’s probably 2 years til Cunningham or a 2-4th round SS from 2011 will make it.
ronny gets no love, ever
even though he has gotten better as the year has gone on. but if i gotta hear bob walk talk about how f-ing enigmatic he is ONE MORE $#@! TIME!!!! arghhhhhh
I see no problem with keeping Ronny around
We have nothing better in the system, there are questions over whether D’Arnaud can play ss…
But if we could get JJ Hardy for an equivalent salary dump, that would interest me somewhat.
We already know what we have...
…in some of those players. Clement and Diaz are waiver-bait, and Friday is a UT IF in the making. So why waste playing time “learning” something that we already know?
unloading players that i mentioned
Would also clear a lot of space on the 40 man roster
by hilltoppeer on Sep 3, 2010 1:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not a fan of platooning Milledge..
I think you either make the determination he’s going to get another chance at the majority of at-bats OR he’s a 4th outfielder.
Uhhhh
I don’t like platooning Milledge part-time! I think he should be a 4th OF!
Am I missing something?
Finkle IS Einhorn, Einhorn IS Finkle…
Have you seen his numbers against LHP?
Honestly, anyone that can look at his numbers against lefties and be against platooning him…I don’t get it.
scratch that
I just looked it up… his career OPS against lefties is .795 only. Hmm… still if we can average .795 from one side, that’s better than what we have now, but its not as obvious as I thought it was
Milledge is a right-handed batter.
And as such, you’ll get more value from regressing his performance toward a 1.09 platoon ratio than you will by looking at his actual L/R splits-to-date.
What is the meaning of platoon ratio?
How do they derive it?
Platoon ratio...
…is the ratio of your split vs. RHP to your split vs. LHP.
On a long enough time frame, the vast, vast majority of RHBs will end up with numbers vs. LHP that are 9% higher than their numbers vs. RHP.
It’s probably the result of selection pressures at lower levels of competition, and it only applies to RHB. LHB and switch-hitters don’t regress toward any particular ratio – their splits have actual predictive value.
Ok, but who is to say
his #’s vs lefties will regress instead of saying his vs righty numbers will PROgress to 9% less than his numbers v lefties?
I hope that made sense.
Generally speaking, both move toward the middle.
But the #s vs. LHP move more than the #s vs. RHP, because the sample is smaller.
Thanks for the ratio
I understand it, but I find it a little hard to believe that there isn’t more variance around the 1.09 number.
No question...
…that it’s a tough one to accept. Took me quite a while to believe it, too, but the numbers back it up.
Barring any ridiculous signings...
I think Jones/Pearce at 1B and Doumit/Milledge at RF would be a great platoon. If Doumit does get traded you can throw Clement into the mix.
so your saying...
that you would rather have bowker at first rather than clement and rather than jones and possibly rather than pearce. what if dan rather’s son dan rather jr gets drafted? would you rather have rather than not have rather?
No, he's saying
Bowker/Milledge
Jones/Pearce
I’m pretty sure.
This is my preference as well
When none of the options stand out you naturally make everyone better by platooning them.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 3, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
what pittiful89 said
the comment was a reply to titanlord’s comment, so if you read it in that light, it may have been easier to understand
The only place Clement should be thrown...
…is over the side of the boat. He’s clearly a worse option at this point than Pearce and Bowker, and he’s out of options. Cut the cord.
i agree
i followed clement’s career back in his USC days, and its a shame that it hasnt come together for him in the Show. if he could still catch, he would have great value. but now? he still has knee issues along with a serious case of offspeeditis.
clement had his chance
to showcase his power. which he did. in BP. Moss had an even better chance, and i actually wouldnt mind him as a 4th outfielder IF WE DIDNT HAVE ENUFF OF THOSE ALREADY… time to move on, gentlemen.
Yeah basically...
If he can’t expand his value by catching, he is pretty much worthless. Luckily, I think he will pass through waivers since he has been so bad this year. He can play 1B at Indy.
Man, it’d sure be nice if his knees were better…
now Clement hurt his oblique again
the same thing happened to him a couple weeks before the end of last season. this injury sure does happen alot to the really muscle bound guys in the league it seams.
With the pieces now, Garrett Jones (or John Bowker)/Steve Pearce at first base with Ryan Doumit getting most of the playing time in the outfield makes sense.
That said, there are enough flaws in the Doumit profile (defense, inability to stay healthy) to justify outside help for right field next year (via free agency or trade). If right field is upgraded, Doumit should get more playing time at catcher next year than Synder, because Doumit’s bat has more juice and neither is a good defender.
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