Cutch or Tabata?
by dkish on Sep 3, 2010 10:39 AM EDT
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PrintI know we are all in love with Andrew McCutchen, and for good reason. He seems to have it all; speed, power, average, the ability to play decent if not spectacular defense. My question though is, who has a higher upside, McCutchen or Tabata? Tabata seems to have everything the McCutchen does (could he even be faster?), at a younger age, and he just looks like he is going to be everything we all wanted McCutchen to be and develop into a true superstar at the plate. So, who is the better player in 3 years; McCutchen or Tabata?
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Tabata very well could be the better player in 3 years..
..but I’ll take the marketability, raw athelticism that should allow him to remain productive as he gets older, and certainty of age that Cutch has over Tabata.
Tabata
if the power comes, Tabata could end up being a much much more valuable player than Cutch. If I had to decide right now to sign one of Cutch/Tabata, I go with Cutch for 2 reasons:
1. The power uncertainty with Tabata
2. The build- its not clear that Tabata will continue to move quite as well. If he doesn’t he’s going to lose a lot of value unless his bat explodes, and is a bigger risk imo
Cutch
I don’t see how he isn’t clearly seen as the player with more upside. Tabata is having a fine rookie season, and should be a fine Major League player, but, does he really have Cutch’s ceiling? I know Cutch has been struggling lately while Tabata’s been on fire, but this question seems similar to asking who will hit more career home runs: Jose Batista or Pedro Alvarez?
It's a good day to be a Pirate
but what is their ceiling?
What is Cutch’s ceiling? Is he a .300 20HR/30SB guy? How about Tabata? Are they really as dissimilar as Bautista and Alvarez? Both of these players are extremely young and have very promising futures and were similarly highly regarded prospects, whereas Bautista came out of nowhere. I think every Pirates fan would love if Alvarez had even one season like Bautista is having now. I would just like to know what they project as.
Until he show he can actually hit .300 over the long haul, he’s not that. True .300 hitters do not have prolonged slumps like Cutch has had.
by MarkInDallas on Sep 3, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
how many true .300 hitters are even in the game any longer?
miguel cabrera, pujols, holiday, a few others… its not like each team has one or two. most teams have none.
Injured ones do.
That twisted ankle in L.A. put a serious dent on his SB totals and his shoulder injuries have seen his power dwindle.
Has to be Cutch.
He doesn’t seem to have maxed out any of his tools yet – he looks like he can improve his power, his contact ability, and his effectiveness in the field, while Tabata doesn’t really figure to improve in any department except power.
FWIW, if the question was “Who is better right now?”, I think Tabata would win that one.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
Agree.
McCutchen in a landslide, with no disrespect to Tabata whatsoever. He just doesnt have the tools McCutchen does, and I dont think he’s going to have the pop. I Think Cutch is fully capable of putting up “Jose Reyes in his prime” numbers for the next seven or eight years, and Reyes in his prime was basically the best leadoff guy in baseball. OPS over 800, 15 HRs, 60+ steals, 100+ runs. He’s that fast, and hopefully he can be that good, cause we really need it. I think Tabata can hit for a better average, and has similar power, but I dont think he’s better than McCutchen in any other category, especially not in the long run.
as a modified version of the question
if you were asked, who is going to provide more value over the next 5 years- Tabata or Cutch, what would your answer be?
(Point behind the modification being, that is how long Cutch is guaranteed to be with the Pirates, and Tabata for a year longer- so the more interesting question is about who might provide more value to the Pirates, rather than in the long run)
Cutch
If he’s not in his prime within the next five years, I wouldn’t expect him to be. I think within the next two he’ll outstrip Tabata. I’m not trying to knock on Tabby either. I love him (I actually like watching him more than cutch). I think in the next five he’ll hit for a high average, and probably steal around thirty bags a year, but I think in two or three Cutch is going to be one of the best leadoff men in baseball, and those two of three years (hopefully) of amazing will make up for his other two of being just a good ballplayer. Both are valuable as is, so its a good question either way.
Cutch v. Tabata
Don’t know, don’t care. I just hope they have as long a run together as Clemente and Virdon, 1956-1968.
Lino Donoso
by Lino Donoso on Sep 3, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd.
And BOY do I hope you’re right!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 3, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
cant go wrong
with a strong taste of “Manny-Lite”. I voted for Tabata. If the power shows up and he ends up with 20-25HR in a season to go along with a high average, good baserunning, and strong D, then i think he is the better choice of the two.
this is all in future sight so if the question was who is better right now, Id vote Cutch, but in 3 years, heres to Jose.
Tabata doesn't do anything better than Cutch right now...
and probably won’t in the future either. McCutchen is faster and likely to maintain his speed where as Tabata will most likely lose his due to his body type. I think Tabata may have a bit more raw power than Cutch but it doesn’t translate into games. Let’s say that Tabata does learn how to hit for power , even so I just don’t see him being more than a 55 on the 20-80 scale and I see Cutch as a 50-55. Their hit tool is about the same. Tabata has a better arm and plays good defense in LF but doesn’t look as good in CF. Tabata is better in LF than Cutch is in CF right now but I still think they both have gold glove potential as long as Tabata has his speed. IDK, I like both of these guys but I have a hard time seeing Tabata being better in the future than Cutch. I hope he is because that will likely mean that we will have another All-Star on the team because Cutch is going to be amazing in his prime.
"Tabata doesn't do anything better than Cutch right now...."
But then you admit he has a better arm.
I’d be worried about Cutch throwing like Lee Mazzilli in a few years. (Well, not that bad but he sure can bring rain some days with his rainbow throws.)
It’s easy to say Cutch has Gold Glove potential due to his tremendous speed, but the instincts and arm leave a lot to be desired. There’s a lot to work with to be sure, but he’s got a long way to go.
Tabata will be the better hitter down the road, especially if he develops some more power. As you and many others have pointed out, his speed will probably decline more rapidly than Cutch’s due to body type.
I don’t see either one being “amazing” during their prime years-if you mean what we saw from Bonds and Van Slyke during their best years in Pittsburgh.
But it is nice to see some talent again in the OF since Bay left, and we’ll keep our fingers crossed that Cutch and Tabata become very good players in a couple years.
You're right...
about the arm comment but I was kind of working my thoughts out while posting. Probably should have said the only tool of Tabata’s that currently grades out better than Cutch is the throw tool. And when I said I could see Cutch becoming a Gold Glover (for what that’s worth) I was speaking of potential. He definitely needs to improve and I’m hopeful that he will. I like Cutch’s swing better than Tabata so I’m not convinced, like you are, that Tabata will be the better hitter. Tabata doesn’t hit enough flyballs so I’m skeptical he’ll ever hit for a lot of power. And he also gets a lot of base hits in the IF. Those IF hits will decline as he loses speed and if he doesn’t make up for the lack in batting average with an increase in power he will be a worse player in the future than the next couple of years. And no, neither will be a Bonds but I could see Cutch and Tabata becoming our Bonds and Bonilla if Tabata learns to hit for some power.
I think its comparing them to the wrong players.
You dont have to be bonds of bonilla to be nasty. I think Cutch in particular is 100% capable of putting up carl crawford / jose reyes numbers out of the leadoff spot, and those guys are two of the best leadoff hitters in the last five years. Frankly, we need one of them to be unbelievable if we’re going to be competitive soon, since I dont see any other impact bats coming anytime soon (barring rendon, and I still think we need one of them even with him).
I wasn't really comparing them as players...
but comparing their production…WAR. There is no comp for Bonds on our Bucs; he is a once in a generation type player. But I think Tab and Cutch can give us as much production as Bonilla and VanSlyke. And I only used those players because patthatt made the Bonds and Van Slyke reference.
Maybe either could get the Van Slyke level, although Bonds was a once-in-a-generation player so his ceiling is unattainable by mortals.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 3, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I would say they are pretty close.
I do think Tabata is going to hit for better average. His contact skills are better than Cutch’s. Cutch gets into phases where he wants to hit homers and pull the ball a lot. That is his downfall, because he’s not strong enough right now to be that kind of player. Tabata seems to know what he does best and doesn’t try to do too much.
According to Fangraphs their contact % is practically identical (Cutch 83.6%, Tabata 83.5%).
Biggest difference is Tabata has a 25.8 FB% to Cutch’s 38.8%. Tabata hits 2 GB to every FB while Cutch’s ratio is 1/1. Tabata is turning a lot of those GB’s into hits but that won’t keep up; especially in a couple of years as he slows and I think he will slow down a lot sooner than Cutch. Everyone seems to acknowledge that Cutch has been slumping and that Tabata has been on fire, so it’s interesting to see that Cutch still has a higher wOBA as of right now (though they are close) – .349 – .347. Tabata has been a pleasant surprise and I think he will be a good player but in the end, IMO, he is a lesser player than Cutch righ now riding a really high BABIP (.349). With Tababta’s speed he may be able to keep a higher than normal BABIP but I will need more evidence to believe he can keep it that high.
A .349 BABIP isn't all that high for Tabata
I look at Tabata and I see a younger and probably better Marlon Byrd. Byrd is someone with Tabata’s body type that you look at and don’t think he should run that fast. And yet he does.
Cutch’s fly balls that you mention are exactly the reason Cutch is not doing that well right now. He doesn’t have the strength to be a fly ball hitter, and that takes away from his most powerful asset – speed. At the point in the season where his flyballs exceeded his ground balls, that is when his slump began.
And even with his slump he has a better wOBA than Tabata who is on fire.
Cucth had a higher FB% last year when he accumulated 3.3 WAR in a little over 400 AB’s. I just don’t see that FB% as a weakness. He’ll get a few less IF hits that way but you can’t get triples with groundballs. To your point though, Cutch getting pull happy has likely led to his struggles (or it could be the shoulder). His problem is more in his approach than it is hitting FB’s. I’d be perfectly happy with him sending more balls into the opposite field gap. I like your Byrd comp for Tabata and if Tabata does hold that skill set throughout his career I will be happy. I just hope that Jose can learn how to get a little bit more loft on some balls. He has the power to be more than 10 HR per year player if he could learn how to use it a bit.
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