Bucs Defeat Nationals, 8-5
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 3, 2010 10:45 PM EDT
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PrintThe Pirates managed to pile up runs today thanks to big days from Garrett Jones (who had two doubles, one of them nearly a homer) and Ryan Doumit. Pedro Alvarez added two RBIs on a double of his own, which also was nearly a homer.
Once the Bucs had a lead to protect, John Russell's decisions with the bullpen made me nervous - Zach Duke only pitched five innings, but Russell was still ridiculously careful with some of his middle relief guys (which makes some sense, given how badly they pitch) and basically played LaRussa-style through the sixth and seventh innings, only allowing Wilfredo Ledezma and Brian Burres to pitch to one batter each and Heave Ho Park to pitch to two. After that, he only had Chris Resop and Joel Hanrahan left available and a score of 8-5. Luckily, those two guys are good, and Russell's gamble paid off. Burres was brought in to face lefty Adam Dunn and he walked him, and Russell pulled Burres immediately so that Resop could face righty Mike Morse. Resop then showed very convincingly that Morse didn't have any idea how to hit his fastball.
Some people in the comments section criticized Russell for putting Burres in at all instead of just bringing Resop to face Dunn, since the idea with a three-run lead is to keep guys off the bases, and Burres likes giving out walks almost as much as Dunn likes taking them. But I'm not sure I can fault Russell for that - in his career, Resop has been even more of a walk machine against lefties than Burres has.
We criticize Russell a lot here, and mostly he deserves it, but today I have to give him some credit. He might have pulled Duke a bit earlier, and it was pretty questionable to put Sean Gallagher out there with the bases loaded and no outs in the sixth. But after that, Russell managed like he cared and pursued a risky strategy that would have made him look very dumb if Resop and Hanrahan had struggled, but that nonetheless was a pretty good strategy given that he only had six pitchers in his 'pen and only two of them are any good (although I still hold out a bit of hope for Ledezma).
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JR made so many horrible pitching moves this year
that I’m not encouraged in the least bit that he’s learning on the job.
“The Job” is too big for JR in EVERY way. The sooner he is forcibly retired back to Southfork, the better for the Pirates. He simply can’t be fired soon enough…
Nice post Charlie.
You should hold out hope for Ledezma, he’s been quite good this year. He is averaging over 9 K/9 and just under 2 BB/9. His DIPS are solid: FIP – 2.56, xFIP – 3.44 and tERA – 2.88. His ERA is high mainly because he’s carrying a .419 BABIP. What’s not to like about him? Lefties who can bring mid 90 heat don’t grow on trees.
A lot can change in the next 4 weeks, but right now I think the 2011 bullpen starts with Hanrahan, Meek, Resop, and Ledezma. Karstens or McCutchen would be the long man, with my preference being Karstens in the rotation and McCutchen in the pen. I think that’s a good start on a decent bullpen. Of course, Neal could decide to trade Hanrahan or Meek (assuming he finishes the season healthy) while they may be at peak value and then he’ll face a task similar to last year.
Ledezma, Karstens, and McCutchen should be gone, IMO.
Resop should be the 5th starter if we can’t get a 2+ WAR starting pitcher on a 1 year, $5-8 million deal (like Jon Garland last season).
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 4, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What exactly do you not like about Ledezma?
I don’t know if the Bucs will be able to sign a free agent starter. Even if they can afford one I doubt they’ll be able to convince anyone decent to come to Pittsburgh. I think their best bet is to trade for one. I for one would find out what it would take to pry Shields or Garza from the Rays. They have to stay under $60M next season and they have a lot of production to replace with Pena and Crawford becoming free agents. Shields and Garza are getting expensive and young cost controlled pitching is a strength of the Rays. I wonder what it would take to get one of those guys.
I don’t know about Ledezma, he hasn’t been overly impressive so far and his career is bad. Still, I guess he could at least be a candidate if we can’t find anyone else.
Shields is definitely a top-flight pitcher, and is under control through 2014. That’s huge value, and the Rays GM knows it too.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 4, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
"What exactly do you not like about Ledezma?"
He is a bad pitcher. But I guess his fastball on the gun and the Bucs lack of talent might give him another shot next spring. I’d rather have him around for a while than Dumatrait or Burres, if this is much of an endorsement.
Yeah, I bet a guy like Matt Garza would be just thrilled about going from Tampa to Pittsburgh. He’d go into Operation Shutdown for a couple months to force another trade, or eat his way out of town like Akinori Iwamura.
The Pirates have to rebuild from within and be patient a few more years. They need to accumulate a wealth of promising young talent at the major-league level before they will be able to entice quality veterans through FA or trades to really want to play in Pittsburgh.
You don't have to entice players through trades.
Most players have more pride than to go into operation shutdown and we’d have control of Garza for a couple of seasons before he became a free agent so he would be destroying his career if he decided to tank it with the Bucs. And as far as Ledezma goes I guess we’ll just have to disagree as to what quantifies one as a bad pitcher. To me it’s more than just having a low ERA. Lefties who K over 9/9 innings and have 5:1 K/BB ratio don’t come around every day. It’s a small sample size but when you combine that with what he did in Indy I think he has more than earned another shot next year.
Slick1
“You don’t have to entice players through trades.”
I was talking about quality vets who have the right-of-refusal due to their service time.
We can’t sign FAs in their prime and we can’t get 10/5 guys who might still have something to offer because the Pirates are the laughingstock of MLB.
We can’t get almost anyone with talent unless we draft/sign and develop them ourselves.
There would be no motivation for two guys from Tampa to want to play in Pittsburgh. Maybe they wouldn’t pull a Derek Bell-style shutdown, but they wouldn’t be buying any houses in the "Burgh.
No, I’m not cranky. I just don’t see the point in throwing together some numbers on crappy pitchers like Chris Reslop and Wil Ledezma to try and see if they are part of the future.
I’ll reserve judgment on Lincoln til I see him pitch next year and I don’t hear anymore about a pitching coach trying to “improve” his mechanics.
Chris Resop is not a starting pitcher-in NPB or MLB. He is a bit useful as a reliever
on a team that isn’t worth a warm bucket of piss right now. He is a one-inning guy.
Cranky today? You seem to be a little more extra critical than normal in your analysis...
Well I don’t know how good Resop can be but he has been pretty darn good out of the pen so far…again in a small sample size. I think there are a lot of teams that would take a pitcher with a 2.77 FIP and 2.71 xFIP. I do agree with you that I don’t think he has the stuff to be a starter but I think he has a chance to be a pretty good bullpen pitcher, regardless of the team he is playing on. Sad part is he reminds me a lot of Lincoln. I imagine that Lincoln will most likely end up in the pen but watching Resop leads me to believe that Lincoln can be useful there if he fails as a starter.
Small sample and all...
…but Resop’s looked pretty good out of the pen so far. Given that he’s still cheap, I think he’s worth carrying on the roster this offseason. If they want to give him a look in the rotation in ST, I guess that’s OK, but he looks like a short reliever to me.
My only complaint with him is that he looks like Vincent D’Onofrio when you see him from the side. It’s kind of creepy.
Still hate going to Gallagher in the 6th
Even though the score was 8-2, the bases were loaded with nobody out, Rodriguez’s at-bat was a key moment in the game – the second highest leverage index situation that Pirates pitchers faced tonight. Bringing in Gallagher, perhaps the worst pitcher in our lamentable bullpen, was absolutely the wrong decision. This was the moment to use Resop, your second best relief pitcher, to shut down the rally and not let Washington back into the game. Even Park would have been a better choice, Gallagher is allowing 7 BB/9 for chrissakes.
JR is very fortunate that his stupidity didn’t cost us this win.
Yeah
I was thinking the exact same thing – it was the highest leverage situation you’re likely to see with an 8-2 lead. That said, with Meek out, I don’t entirely blame him – you hate to face 3 subsequent innings with only 1 decent pitcher (assuming JR hasn’t studied DIPS enough to trust Ledezma).
Is this how low we've fallen?
Patting guys on the back for doing stuff the other 29 managers do routinely?
It’s like the Special Olympics around here.
Why not?
People here complain about him doing stuff that other managers also do routinely, after all.
Remember all the outrage a couple months ago about Russell giving starts to backups? Where was the outrage over Bobby Cox’s lineup yesterday? He starts Nate and Ross and Diaz and nobody here gives a shit.
I’m open to the idea that there’s a better manager for us out there than Russell. But the anti-Russell side needs to do a better job of making its case than it’s been doing up until now.
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