Link Roundup: What's Different About Brandon Moss?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 8, 2010 4:03 AM EDT
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PrintGreetings from Spearfish, South Dakota - I drove up from Utah yesterday and caught a few innings of the Idaho Falls Chukars / Casper Ghosts game last night in Wyoming (yes, really) before heading north. Sorry I missed the Bucs game last night - it sounded like a good one. A few notes from around the internet today:
-P- The Post-Gazette has a short piece on what Brandon Moss is doing differently. The assumption here is that what Moss has done this year at Class AAA is different from what he's done in the majors. I'm not sure this is the case. Plugging Moss' AAA stats this year into MinorLeagueSplits.com's MLE calculator, I get that his line in Pittsburgh this year would have been .223/.278/.380. That line is roughly equivalent to the 2009 major league one that got him demoted in the first place. Now, it's possible that Moss' hitting coach knows something I don't know, and it's also possible Moss goes nuts for the rest of the season. I hope he does. But when the Post-Gazette asks "What happpened?", the answer seems to me to be pretty simple - Moss played the year in an easier league. That's pretty much it. I don't care if he led the International League in RBIs; I don't see much progress here.
-P- The Marauders won their first playoff game.
-P- Bucs 24th-round pick Justin Howard talks about his knee troubles. The article describes 2010 as a "throwaway season" for him, so it'll be interesting to see what he does next year, probably in West Virginia.
-P- Tim Williams scouts the West Virginia Power and argues that Evan Chambers is the best player on the team, noting that he does everything right except hit for average. True, but hitting for average is the skill I'd most like a hitting prospect to have. Drawing walks and hitting for power can show up later. Chambers is a really interesting player, but I'm not sure how he's going to succeed at the higher levels without making some serious changes.
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Hope you have time for the Badlands
Assuming you’re taking I-90 across SD. Pretty amazing.
Probably doesn't mean anything.
Indy doesn’t have any gigantic ballpark effects, and most hitters tend to hit a little better at home anyway.
Big Gap
A gap of 230 points in OPS is not little. It’s huge. There is something about Indy that favored Moss at the plate.
Sample size
He had 556 plate appearances this year. The sample size is certainly adequate.
I can’t explain it. But it’s not the sample size.
1) 556 is not a particularly significant sample.
2) He didn’t have 556 PA at home or on the road. He had roughly half that in each category, making the sample even less significant than it already was.
I'd disagree
I think it’s actually a good sample. I’ve done survey research projects for newspapers and we had 400 to 500 respondents. You can easily find statistical significance with that number.
In my graduate statistics classes, anything over 400 was considered a great sample. Would you like more than approximately 280 at home and 280 on the road? It would be nice. But most statisticians would tell you the numbers are fine.
I can run the statistical significance on the home-road splits but I’m sure it’s about .001.
I’m not sure why it’s there. But it’s not random.
What you are sampling matters.
For example, Vlad has pointed out numerous times that one need thousands of defensive innings before UZR is worth anything. 500 defensive innings for the purpose of measuring defensive ability via UZR is not significant. This is because of the amount of noise in the data. The ability you attempting to measure is influenced by too many other things.
Offensive ability is the same way. There’s no “noise” in whether or not somebody like chocolate or vanilla ice cream. There is a TON of noise in whether or not Brandon Moss got lucky for 275 (or 550) plate appearances. Did he happen to randomly face weaker pitchers than normal for a couple road trips? Bat more often in poor hitters’ ball parks? Spend an entire homestand hiding an injury? Any one of these things, let alone all of them, are enough to significantly affect a dataset of the size you are claiming is significant for the purposes of measuring baseball talent.
Matskralc
I, and most statisticians I know, would disagree on the sample.
UZR is more complex because the variable you are trying to measure is so complex.
Hitting statistics are not that complex. If I were still doing statistical consulting, and I am not, I’d quickly accept 275 PA.
With 550 at bats, I wouldn’t be concerned at all with the “noise” you mention. If we were talking 50 at bats, I’d worry.
Again, if I have time, I’ll run the numbers. But I’m pretty sure it’s going to be p < .001 for his home-road splits.
Sample size is definitely an issue
For half-season batting statistics. You can look at first-half/second-half splits and find huge variations that really mean nothing.
Almost all hitters...
…will have a three-digit difference between their best OPS month and worst OPS month in any given season. It’s just the way these things work.
I mean, look at the Cardinals, to pick a team totally at random. Albert Pujols was at 1.230 in August, but only .848 in July. Holliday was at .971 in June, but only .814 in March/April. Rasmus was at 1.171 in March/April, but only .665 in July. Schumaker was at .728 in June, but only .596 in March/April. And so forth…
If you flip a coin ten times this morning and get three heads, then flip it ten times this afternoon and get six heads, that doesn’t necessarily mean that your coin is learning how to land on heads. It’s just a coin – there’s variability built into the process.
Go Marauders
Good article on Pribanic. Would be great for Bradenton to win this series and beat the Rays affiliate. I’m also looking forward to Altoona tonight.
Yinzers uber alles
Moss
probably isn’t in the future plans. He’s likely a AAAA player.
But his career OPS, for example, is essentially the same as Lastings’.
It’s not like he’s a dramatic downgrade from current options.
Also, unlike most of the current back-ups, he can actually play good defense at several positions.
I agree.
I am hoping that one of the current RF plug-ins shows they belong, but if they don’t by year’s end or in ST, and if the team does not otherwise upgrade the position, I am not opposed to having Moss on the roster as the 4th outfielder next year strictly for his defense, which I think is better than the Lastings/Doumit/DY/whoever else you want to throw out there platoon. I think Moss also gives you the flexibility to play him in all 3 outfield spots if needed, which Lastings probably doesn’t. Again, I hope there is a better answer by the start of the 2011 season, but this team needs to be better defensively and I think Moss is at least a tick better than what we have been seeing in right this season.
"essentially the same as Lastings'"
They’re fairly close, but they separate a bit once you adjust for context, since about 2/5 of Moss’s sample came in a higher offensive context in Fenway.
Vlad
At the same time, you have to think that the short porch at PNC will help Moss more than RF will help Lastings.
Even if Moss just improves modestly from last year, his overall production, when you factor in defense, is close to Lastings.
I’m not saying that it’s desirable.
It’s just that I think they are similar players right now.
Moss is hitting more fly balls this year.
Which should, in theory, be helpful, given our park’s dimensions. He seems to be doing it at the cost of line drives, though, and I’m not sure that entirely convinced that’s a good trade for his long-term value.
Dunno. It’ll be interesting to see.
There is a defensve edge for Moss, though I think that in general people overestimate the size of that age because they think that Milledge is a worse defender than he actually is. I also think that with Tabata and Cutch in the everyday lineup, it could be tricky for us to capitalize tactically on Moss’s defensive value, since we don’t really gain anything by using him as a defensive replacement for either guy, and Tabata can steal starts in CF on days when we want to rest Cutch.
Tactics
If Doumit keeps getting starts in RF, then Moss’ glove can provide a big late inning boost. And if his bat is .700+, then you don’t have to wait for the 9th to put him in – you can insert him as soon as you have a lead in the 6th (that’s more aggressive than JR or most managers would probably be, but it’s probably the best strategy, esp. with double switch options – ideally, Moss PHs for the SP in the bottom6/top7, after Doumit’s had his 3rd or 4th PA, and Moss fields the rest of the way. Moss replaces the P for one PA (obviously a win), he significantly upgrades Doumit’s glove for 1/3 of the game (big win), and replaces Doumit’s bat no more than 1 PA (small loss). Also, less wear and tear on the world’s first blown glass baseball player.
Moss
I seem like the president of the Moss fan club. I’m not. But JRoth’s plan is reasonable.
Moreover, it would be nice to see a flyball and actually have confidence that it’ll be caught.
Lastings usually does catch them. Let’s just say he makes it interesting.
As stated earlier...
…I think an OPS over .700 for Moss is pretty optimistic. But we’ll have to wait and see.
I'd kind of like to find out
When we have so little offensive talent anywhere near major league ready, i think it is wise to try anyone who even smells like he can hit. We don’t have the luxury of blowing anyone off. Lots of folks here didn’t even want to bother trying to play Walker full time (I believe the GM was so disposed at one point). The dude says he opened his stance and feels better at the plate, and I’m happy to find out.
Defense is nice, but...
I don’t see anything that would lead me to believe that Moss is capable of putting up and OPS of .700.
Well ...
Moss has a career OPS of .700 in 716 plate appearances. And he has exceeded a .700 OPS in four of five MLB seasons, including his first year in Pittsburgh at .712.
His last year in Pittsburgh, 2009, he was modestly under it at .668.
Vlad makes a good point that his OPS is affected by Fenway numbers. At the same time, a .700 OPS is not unreasonable. In fact, I think it’s likely what he would put up next year.
Well, if Ronny Cedeno and Cesar Izturis can see lots of time as starting shortstops then anyone can, I think. Too bad, though, since we’re lacking up the middle and could probly use a couple solid candidates.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Ronny
is not doing too badly, he’s hitting near .250 with a bit of power and providing decent defense.
by BlindSquirrel on Sep 8, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
There's really a Spearfish?
I thought writers just made that up.
You’re taking the Great Circle Route from San Diego, ain’tcha?
Picking up my girlfriend’s furniture in Wisconsin first.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 8, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Pay attention to his month by month
He was doing worse at AAA in April and early May than he had in Pittsburgh last year – not by equivalent, but by absolute numbers. Then, starting in late May, he started hitting HRs and raising his average. His season numbers are dragged down by what he did the first 6 weeks.
To give you an idea, when Moss went 3 for 9 with a double and a walk on May 30, that raised his season average to .239. Twelve days earlier, it had been under .230.
He didn’t prove himself some sort of phenom, but he went from a guy batting .224/.288/.343 in April to a guy who, in July, hit .315/.364/.611 – MLE of .265/.309/.492. That was his best month, and his August looked pretty bad (although still much better than his April, and his 6 Sept games were a bounceback), but the point is that he made a dramatic, clearly identifiable adjustment in mid-May, and his performance from that point on was much, much better, albeit still not good enough to start in MLB.
On a side note, his month-by-month BB/K rates are 23.5%, 36.7%, 39.1%, 45%, & 32% (folding September’s 6 games into August).
OK, ran the numbers
Starting June 1 (because I’m not going to pick through gamelogs to get the last 10 games in May, when he started hitting), his MLE is .235/.280/.418 – almost identical AVG to 2009, with an extra 30 points of OPS. Still not good enough, but a visible improvement. Given that no one is talking about him becoming an everyday RF, I have no problem with him getting another crack at 4th OF, which is always what he projected to be.
In an interview on FSN a few weeks back,
Brandon Moss suggested he was not in the Pirates’ plans for next year.
Because he’s solid defensively, if he can hit a bit, I figure he’ll get another shot as a utility type between OF and 1B.
Moss has been one sad panda for a couple of months now…I don’t see how sulking publicly is a good career move, to be honest.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 8, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems to have turned out OK for Walker.
Who was a gigantic pouty-pants at the start of last year, complaining about how Huntington had a grudge against players acquired by DL. So who knows?
Good point that
I just hated to see Moss making comments along the lines of “The Pirates probably won’t even call me up in September” when in fact it was quite likely that he was coming up all along.
It just seemed so emo.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 8, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a good point ...
but what we don’t know is what conversations occurred between him, his agent and the team.
But it did seem ridiculous.
Moss wants to be Matt Stairs apparently - I read the article
and he says he won’t hit for average, but think he can hit home runs.
The Pirates have to put their At Bats into Neil Walker clones or potential Neil Walkers.
I’m tired of the 4A players like Moss/Clement/LaRoche/Bowker. Neeeexxxxt !
Strairs
I’d love to be Matt Stairs. Get paid well. Don’t worry about conditioning.
Get 100 at bats a year and get to be an MLB player.
"Get 100 at bats a year and get to be an MLB player."
Don’t forget about getting your ass hammered by guys.
It's like being an NFL long snapper
Yeah, you might get hammered.
But you get paid a lot of money to do little work and to get to watch great players.
I’d give up almost anything to be a Matt Stairs.
I think Vlad was going for a little humor there…
Jason
The Hanging Curve
From the Stairs video I linked:
“…when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout, you get your ass hammered by guys – there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”
(Not that there’s anything wrong with that.)
what happened to
what happens in the locker room stays in the locker room.
by SHOOTFOR2010 on Sep 8, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Chambers
I thought it was the other way around. You can’t teach patience or power just like you can’t teach speed but you can always work on average which can improve with the right adjustments at the plate and a consistent approach.
Also you never know what kind of pitching you are getting at lower minor league levels. Look at Alvarez, he had bad numbers in A+ but when promoted to AA and after a month of adjustment he started hitting pretty well despite that poor average in A+.
I don’t get the value of MLE’s. I’m sure if you would have punched in Tabata’s or Walker’s in their calculator, their lines wouldn’t have been impressive either. Not sure how the system is set up, but it seems like a player has to have an OPS above 1.000 to have an MLE of .750
Walker, Pearce, and Bowker each had around a .950 OPS in AAA, which works out to an MLE .800 OPS. That’s accurate for at least Walker and Pearce, although Bowker could be a quad-A guy.
Tabata had a .826 AAA OPS, and that worked out to a MLE .702 OPS. The calculator underestimated how Tabata’s skillset would translate to the majors, while overestimating how, for example, Jeff Clement would adjust.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 8, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The other thing is that players do improve, which can mess with the translations. A guy like Tabata who’s young might beat his MLE in the majors in part because he’s getting better. That’s less likely for an older player.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 8, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
When you see a gigantic drop in a player's line...
…moving from AAA numbers to MLE ones, there are often park effects in play. Some of the AAA PCL parks are pretty crazy offensive environments (Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, etc.), due in part to altitude, so a guy can be putting up a .900-ish raw OPS without being all that good a hitter. International League teams are generally more reasonable.
Sort of.
LaRoche’s numbers were good enough that there was still a fair bit left even after you let the air out of them. That’s why he was so well-regarded as a prospect.
For example, his raw line at Vegas in 2007 was a .987 OPS. The MLE on that is still an OPS around .750 – pretty good for a 23-year-old.
But if you take a guy like Luis Maza, it’s another story. 27-year-old middle infielder, putting up a raw line of .330/.381/.463 at Vegas – that sounds pretty good, right? Might be a decent bench option? Not so much. It translates down to an OPS in the .600s.
Chambers
You’re talking about a 21 yr. old, who last year was playing in community college and is now playing in A ball. In his minor league career, all of 773 PA, he’s drawn 137 walks and has a .389 OBP. If you told me we had a raw 21 yr. old CF (potential leadoff hitter) that 174 games out of CC has a .389 OBP , .384 SLG and .771 OPS and 41 SB, I would be very pleased. He’s never seen talent like he is now, but his patience is the reason why he’ll blossum. As he adjusts to hitting at these levels, I think half his K’s will turn into balls in play. I’m going to put Grossman in the same watch list too. He’s 6 months younger than Grossman and has cut his K’s by 35% this year.
For two guys that never faced talented pitching like they are now and are essentially about to be college senior aged, I like both their potentials as CF prospects.
In regards to Chambers
I dunno, he does a lot of good things really well…he’s not can’t miss, but who really is these days? I seem to recall Jim Negrych not really getting any props when he was hitting for huge averages at a few different levels, because he didn’t have any power.
Sure, I want Chambers to hit for a better average too, but he’s doing a lot of things that are pretty tough for a young guy to do, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt for a while.
Jason
The Hanging Curve
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