Next Years Rotation
by Waxy Case on Sep 8, 2010 11:00 PM EDT
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PrintProjected rotation next year (as of today):
James McDonald (Maybe Very Good, Likely Good)
Ross Ohlendorf (Maybe Good, likely solid)
Brad Lincoln (Supposed to be Good, likely Uhhh... )
Paul Maholm (Supposed to be solid, Uhhh....)
Zach Duke / Charlie Morton / Daniel McCutchen (Uhhh....)
I'm excited about the pirates future, and Im behind the FO, but thats downright terrifying. I'm going to have nightmares. Worse. I'm going to have actual fantasies about Karstens rejoining the rotation. Without better pitchers its borderline impossible to get a three game win streak, let alone run through a rotation. I know Rudy, Justin, and company are in Altoona, but they aren't up till at least midseason, and it could get spectacularly ugly before that point next year. We need a starting pitcher pretty desperately, otherwise.... I dont know. I want to build the right way, but I want to win a few more games too, and I feel like adding a solid pitcher through a trade or FA would go a long way to making next year more bearable. I think the offense over the whole year could come out about league average in 2011, but if we give up six runs a game... you get the point. Anyway, think this is far and away the biggest hole to fill. Holes to fill. Caves to fill. Canyons to fill. Black Holes to fill. Whatever you want to call it.
Sweet dreams.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Too soon for the bullpen. I have strong doubts about Lincoln, but loads of young pitchers get rocked in their first exposure to the Majors. I’d give him at least a couple more stints in the rotation before giving up on him as a starter.
Unfortunately
He doesn’t have a single really good pitch. Just a couple of so-so pitches. If he starts, he’ll lead the league in home runs given up.
+1
I’d agree with this, as much as I’d hate to admit it. I just don’t think he has the fastball movement to be effective with a weak curveball. It is really hard to be a good starter in the MLB if you don’t have a good fastball or curveball.
i agree too
lincoln did get his fastball up to 95 in one start, but just like Resop its straight as an arrow. but hes still young, and theres still time to become a good MLB pitcher
by white angus on Sep 10, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
If the pirates do sign anyone...
It will likely be a reclamation project type of guy, so don’t expect a veteran ace or anything
i'd take karstens
over that Duke/Morton/McCutchen combo.
I agree
Karstens has proven he is a gamer. Morton needs Karstens’ head to go with his arm.
The only one that gets a thumbs up so far is McDonald. Ohlendorf’s peripherals are subpar, and Maholm’s are even worse this year.
I’m not sold on McDonald’s head yet, but if he can stay right then he’s a part of the “core” with Walker/Tabata/Alvarez.
Why is McDonald a possible headcase?
Is this the designation we have for any player who is a really good prospect, but, for one reason or another, isn’t seen as established by age 25?
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
He’s looked good so far, but the Dodgers did give up on him fairly easily. It’s a tough call. I think a solid full season would put those reservations to rest.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
But did they give up on him because they thought he was a headcase
Or because they just thought he wasn’t good enough? I honestly had not heard that McDonald had/has attitude or mental toughness issues.
I’m not saying he isa headcase. I’m saying I can’t tell for sure at this point yet. He has the talent/stuff of a 3-starter fairly easily, I’d say.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
From what I see
It’s his command that is questionable, not his mental makeup. Him coming from a pro sports family and all, makeup would not seem to be a big concern unless we’ve heard something specific about him.
Throwing that curveball consistently for strikes on the other hand…
eh, mcdonald is still...
one of our best options for the rotation. so even by default, hes our #1 or #2… could do alot worse than him… wait a tick, we HAVE done alot worse.
He’d be our best option even if he was legally insane. That’s not saying much though.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Two words:
Oliver Perez.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 12, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see the bucs go after a pitcher in FA
but not some stallion, maybe like Manny Parra or Fausto Carmona. Someone with upside and good stuff but poor control. Keep it in the same line as Hart/Veal/Morton, even though none of those have panned out yet.
Maybe the Mets dump Ollie Perez? The Twins have a LH who sounds like he fits the description, but I don’t know much about him other than he’s been bad – Glen Perkins I think his name is.
Re your Perez suggestion:
you forgot
[/sarcasm]
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 12, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
id rather have good control
with mediocre stuff. i direct you to charlie morton
You mean Daniel McCutchen?
Tried him too, not great results either.
I’d rather have good stuff AND good control.
yes of course
so would I. but if forced to choose between the two, id take control.
You can learn control
You can’t learn stuff though.
If we’re in a pennant race and need a spot start, I might take the guy I know can be reliable but not fantastic. But when you’re a rebuilding team, you want to take the guy with the upside, with the great stuff who can maybe find his control down the line.
Morton sucks, but he could harness his potential and be good. McCutchen sucks, but he will never “learn” stuff and become a great pitcher.
We’re going to non-tender Zach Duke to fit Manny Parra???
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I think someone not seen as a total gamble . . .
will be signed for the rotation, whether it’s a regular free agent or a non-tender. I think Duke will be non-tendered (not that I agree) and the rotation will be:
McDonald
Ohlendorf
FA
Maholm
Karstens/Morton/??
That is until July or so when one of the 4 at AA now make their debut. Probably Owens.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Yes, the Lincoln experiment is done.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
How?
I don’t see how we give up on this guy so fast. Not top of the rotation, I know, but he can still be a solid piece (of the pitching rotation, not crap).
by Wizard of Woz on Sep 9, 2010 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions
i agree with Wiz
hes had like 8 starts. lighten up already. roy halladay was sent down by the Jays with a plus 10era when he was young. you dont give up on a guy for 8 fricken starts.
Lighten up? I was hardly excited, harsh or unreasonable.
I’m not “giving up” on him. I’m not saying remove him from the 40 man or anything. I just do not think he will get MLB hitters out with any consistency. I said as much before he was called up this year. He misses too few bats and does not have a small enough BB rate to make up for the fact that he is going to give up a lot of HRs.
I hope he proves me wrong, and allow that there is a chance he will. I just don’t think he will ever be a legit rotation option.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Plus the last 2 years in the minors.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
you're not giving up on him
but you say the Lincoln experiment is done…..? Doesn’t make any sense.
by dulciusXasperis on Sep 9, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry I failed to meet your lofty blog posting expectations.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Look, it was a hastily thrown together, throw away line to explain that I think Lincoln sucks and always will.
But , I’m not suggesting cutting ties with him until it becomes a necessity because he could conceivably get better.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
that's how things work with all players
in all sports.
Perhaps . . .
But lots of other players, in baseball and elsewhere, have an exponentially greater chance of doing so than Lincoln. In my opinion, he’s done. But, unlike some people who would, for example, DFA Doumit, I say keep him around in case there is a divine intervention.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
We’re going to non-tender Duke to make room for Karstens or Morton??? I’m not picking on you, but…
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Glad you're not picking on me. . .
because it’s a bullshit point. There’s no causal connection- they would non-tender Duke because his internal value would be significantly lower than what he gets through arb, not because of the presence of Morton and Karstens.
It’s like saying the Pirates non-tendered Capps to make room for Donelly, which obviously is not what happened.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
They would still be putting a worse team on the field then they could with a decent 4th starter for a couple tokens more instead of loading up on fringe 5th/6th guys.
Also, there’s still a difference between $4 million for a 7th inning guy (which is what Capps would’ve been on 2010 Pirates) and $6 million for a decent mid-to-back rotation guy (which is probably around $2 million or more lower than the market would bear).
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying I necessarily agree with non-tendering Duke (I acually don't really think it matters much either way) . . .
I just think it will happen. And if it does happen, I think it speaks more to what the Pirates think Duke is worth rather than their confidence in other internal options.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
if Duke is on par with karstens or even morton
you gotta go with karstens and/or morton, for the simple reason that Duke will make at least $5MM more for the same crappy results
I don’t think he’s on par with Karstens or Morton. Not even close. Ohlendorf is more comparable, but I’d still probably take Duke over him.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i have never seen why fans liked Duke
im sorry, but i just dont get it. i understand why hes here, because we have nothing to replace him with, but the Dukies out there totally love the guy. When he made the allstar team, as a REPLACEMENT by the way, the Dukies were high fiving each other, massaging themselves inappropriately…. now they blame the defense for his issues… sighhhh
I liked duke...
because of his 8-1 1.81 era rookie season…
unfortunately he was never that good again
I would take Ohlendorf over two Zach Dukes
in a heartbeat. You have no bloody idea what Ohlendorf can do because he’s been hurt a good part of the year. Zach Duke will stink next year no matter who he pitches for, and you can write it in blood. You are undervaluing a guy who hasn’t had nearly enough time to establish himself, and who comes cheaply, and overvaluing an absolutely execrable pitcher with a track record of mediocrity that has progressed to breathtaking incompetence. Peripherals are peripheral because they’re, well, peripheral.
by RichieHebner on Sep 10, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree . . .
Ohlendorf’s peripherals have been that of a league average pitcher since the All-Star break last year. Duke’s have not. I understand Duke would look much better with a better defense, but so would Ohlendorf. I also understand Duke’s style would mean he would benefit more from a good D than Olie, but it would not be enough to make up for Ohlendorf’s other skill advantages.
Plus, the 2 things Duke used to do good- limit BBs and HRs- has disappeared recently. Perhaps a statistical abberation, but it doesn’t bode well for him.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Ohlendorf’s peripherals have been that of a league average pitcher since the All-Star break last year. Duke’s have not.
What peripherals? Ohlie’s are towards the bottom of the league this year. Duke’s are low as well, but not as low as Ross’s
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 10, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Why don't you just watch
a game or two? Ohlendorf actually fools hitters every now and then. Duke just makes you feel like a fool for watching.
Honestly, you guys are just fucking nuts. Zach Duke is a flat out, horrible pitcher. You can churn peripherals until you turn blue in the face, and he’ll still suck.
by RichieHebner on Sep 10, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I watch about 75% of games. Ross puts the ball up higher in the zone, and gives up a lot of deep flyballs.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 11, 2010 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I watch about as many
And I see Ross able to keep the ball down when he’s healthy and in a groove. I see Duke keeping the ball all over the place, including up, walking people, and giving up singles, doubles, triples and home runs. I see one guy with a potential future as a back of the rotation starter, and another guy whose future has passed in a miscast effort to make a back of the rotation guy a front man. Duke’s stuff is getting worse year on year. I might bite at a revised deal, but not at $5 million and north. Someone else will, though, and I predict he will be trade deadline discussion by June.
by RichieHebner on Sep 11, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
"What we have here is... failure to communicate."
Adam Reynolds: “I watch about 75% of games. Ross puts the ball up higher in the zone,”
RichieHebner: “I watch about as many … And I see Ross able to keep the ball down”
As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 12, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but I'm not concerned about Ross
im concerned about another go round on the Zach Duke Nightmare Express.
by RichieHebner on Sep 12, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Call me a hater....
I want to see more from McDonald before i put him in that likely good category. The way pirate pitchers flame out the year after their first solid year scares me that the same could happen. I’d be much happier if he wasn’t looked at as our probable second best starter going into the year. But none of the affordable FA and our AAA pitchers will likely change that, so I cross my fingers and pray to the baseball gods…..
nothin else you can do brother...
hell, if we were running a rotation of breakout year guys, it’d be
Ollie Perez (‘04)
Gorzo (’07)
Snell (‘07)
Duke (’05)
Ohlendorf (’09? kind of)
let the laughter ensue. clearly the pirates have had poor coaching and such for much of this stretch, but for every single guy to implode in one way or another just sucks. they HAVE to go out and get someone to start next year. even if he’s just an innings-eater who doesn’t suck quite as much as duke. i hope they overpay for de la rosa, maybe a fat 3-year-deal?
You’re a hater.
…
…
Well, you said to call you a hater!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 12, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
McDonald
Maholm
Ohlendorf
FA
FA
That’s what I’d like to see, anyway. A moderately priced guy for one or two years who can hold a place and pitch okay until Owens/Locke/Morris make it to the Majors (hopefully all by this time next year).
De la Rosa wouldn’t be bad. I would also be willing to fork over bigger bucks for Jake Westbrook, though the Pirates couldn’t go much bigger than him.
Jon Garland, Bronson Arroyo, and Javier Vazquez are lesser pitchers, but I wouldn’t mind any of them if they were cheap.
Javier Vazquez > De la Rosa and Westbrook.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
I agree with you 100%.
Just a big Javy fan, so I wanted my feelings known.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
saw on MLBTR
That kazmir might not be in the rotation out west. Also have the pirates shown any interest in Loux?
kazmir, at the ripe age of 26, has regressed badly the last 3 years.
as a fan of the Rays since their inception, ive seen him go from being an overpowering
frontliner to a mediocre walk machine in very little time. vasquez would be a good addition if the price is right.
I'm still on the Rich Harden bandwagon myself..
Talk about a high upside reclamation project. Want a guy that’s totally different from the soft-tossing contact pitchers we have? Harden’s it.
If the price is right, I’d sign someone like Harden, Parra, or Westbrook and dump Duke.
Go with Harden, McDonald, Maholm, Ohlie, and Lincoln (Unless Morton magically turns it around)
Harden hasn’t made it healthy through an entire season since 2004. You expect him to start being healthy now??
I'll give you this...
Harden has been BAD this year: -.06 WAR, 6.19 FIP, 5.36 ERA.. all on a good Texas team. So if there’s a warning, it’s this season.
I’d buy low on the guy though: 2009: 1.8 WAR, 2008 4.4 WAR and at least a positive WAR every year prior. I think he should be cheap, as this season has been a complete disaster.
The Pirates have the money to spend, and if it’s my choice between tendering Duke or signing Harden, I know where I’d take the gamble.
I wouldn't touch FA Starting pitching
All it takes is one team to overpay these guys. How many bad contracts have been given to FA pitchers? The Pirates can’t afford a mistake like that. As sad as it may seem, I wouldn’t touch the FA Starting pitching market unless for a very low risk, high reward type player, but good luck finding someone noone with throw a chunk of money at. Look at Sheets, the A’s felt with the high risk of surgery he was still worth $10 mil.
exactly
I’m sure the brewers thought along these same lines when they paid for jeff suppan. or the phillies and adam eaton. or the brewers and randy wolf. or the…
The difference between Sheets and the other signings you mention . . .
(if memory serves me right) is that the others are multi-year deals while Sheets was a 1 year contract. That’s a huge difference. These contracts are only really killer if multi-year deals.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
And all the FA SPs we can afford......
Will want long term contracts, especially to come play for us.
I agree, to an extent, that most FA pitchers would want a multi-year contract. . .
but I don’t think it’s correlated to what we can afford. In fact, I would think that the type of pitcher we can afford would be more apt to a short term deal to rehabilitate their stock, whereas the big money pitchers would want a long-term deal to ensure years of big pay even if injured.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
But they know if they do well they'll probably be traded
and if not, they have money in their pockets for the future.
Not sure I'm following you reasoning
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
i agree about not touching free agent pitching
but i have this feeling that FC, because of comments he made about disappointment, may have NH “talk” to a few in the off season
Why is karstens getting no love?
I have him penciled in the 5th spot next year. Yeah, ideally, one would want a rotation where Karstens was expendable, but we don’t have that. He’s been solid this season.
Karstens gets no love...
… because he isn’t really that good of a pitcher. He’s been decent this year, but he’s at his maximum as he is. He will probably be worse in the future.
but will still get outs
and no one will understand how, and then ten years from now we will be playing a game where he is starting for the other team and we will wonder how he is still in the league
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"Don't wory, I'm an untrained professional" WVPF
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
I think you're overestimating Karstens value...
On the pirates he looks like a god-send. But he is a 6th starter/AAA fodder at best.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad he’s pitched mediocre-ly so far this year in an otherwise atrocious rotation. But he is not a good starting pitcher. A team with more than 80 wins shouldn’t have him in their rotation.
Karstens himself...
is better than anybody but McDonald, Dorf, and Maholm, and Maholm is arguable. Unless Lincoln or the AA guys makes an immediate surge or Morton bounces back, Karstens will probably be in the rotation.
The FO HAS to do something about the rotation...
…eventually. I understand the hesitation in pumping money into FA pitchers, but the rotation is seriously sad. Ideally we’d like to see the team move into the “competitive” range, at least to throw a bone to the players. I can virtually guarantee you that nobody in that clubhouse wants to play on a team with that rotation next year.
I’m not advocating going after a big ticket guy, but some trades or signings of reclamation-types NEED to be done. The rotation really needs to be Priority #1 this offseason as there isn’t much in the pipeline that is sure to help anytime soon.
i truly believe
that the FO is going to go after 1 starting pitcher in the offseason. part of me wishes they wouldnt, but i honestly cant blame them if they did so.
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