Post-Gazette: Pirates Could Non-Tender Zach Duke
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 9, 2010 2:09 AM EDT
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PrintThe Post-Gazette reports today that the Pirates are likely to non-tender Zach Duke this offseason:
Duke will be eligible for salary arbitration a third and final time this winter, and indications are powerful that management will not tender such an offer, thus casting him into free agency. He currently is making $4.3 million and, because arbitration awards raises based largely on innings, he surely would make more through that process. Another possibility: Management could approach Duke about staying at a lower guaranteed figure.
I'm not sure I can really argue, particularly if the Pirates pick up a rotation option they like better in free agency, much as they did this offseason when they non-tendered Matt Capps and signed Octavio Dotel. It's worth pointing out again, though, that Duke has been royally screwed by the Pirates' defense over the years. He's not a star under any circumstance, obviously, but put him in front of a competent defense, and he's fine.
Unfortunately for Duke, the only remotely competent defense the Pirates have had since 2005 was in 2009. In every other year, they've been in the bottom four in baseball at converting balls in play into outs. In 2009, when they were middle of the pack, Duke's batting average on balls in play dropped 30 points, and he posted a 4.06 ERA. This year, the defense is terrible again, his BABIP is back up, and his ERA is 5.47.
This isn't any kind of love letter to Zach Duke. He's not a great player. In fact, he's a cipher. He lets hitters put balls in play, gets some ground balls, allows a few too many line drives, and generally does little else that's either positive or negative, and so he merely reflects the quality of his defense. Personally, if given the choice between Zach Duke and a pitcher who can take a game into his own hands (and certainly the Pirates have had few of these sorts of pitchers over the past several years, but Oliver Perez showed this kind of game-changing ability in 2004, and James McDonald shows flashes of it now), I'll take a game-changer every time.
While you'd like to have all your pitchers be lions, though, the chameleon does have value. If the Bucs do non-tender Duke, it wouldn't surprise me to see him stick as a fourth starter for a good defensive team. As long as the Pirates continue to field awful defenses, though, he'll probably be of little use to them.
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Not a smooth move when Karstens and Ohlendorf have worse peripherals and are in your rotation as well. Neither of them are strikeout machines. Get those two out of the rotation first. Both could fit in the bullpen in 2011.
Neither of them
will get $5M+ in arbitration. The Pirates would be happy to keep Duke for the money Ohlie or Karstens will be due next year. Furthermore, there’s a 30/70 chance that Karstens gets cut off the 40 man this winter. Not a very useful comparison.
Karstens ...
was a nice story and I do think he improved his pitching this year.
But you are right. It’s not a guarantee that he’s on the 40-man. And it shouldn’t be when you look at his stats.
NH seems to dislike his stamina
and rightly so, which is why I think he’s a decent shot to be cut. He’s the kind of guy whose career relies on the kindness of strangersperception of his GM. A GM who thinks Karstens is gutsy and gets more than he should out of his talent will keep him around, even if not as a main piece. But a GM like NH who considers him flawed will keep him only as long as he needs to.
Is $5 million for Duke going to kill our budget? I mean, we’ve got our lowest payroll in the majors here. If we could only afford one of either Doumit or Duke, who would you take?
The thing is, I don’t know why it would be an either/or. How many free agents are we planning on signing here? Or how many veterans will we be trading for now? (an even more questionable idea to trade prospects now)
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
This question is relevant...
…only if there is no better option for the rotation that costs $5MM or less. If there is any pitcher, internal or external, that would provide a greater ROI than Duke at that price or less, then cut him loose.
There is no reason to overpay for a pitcher with a career ERA+ of 95 (most of that generated by his incredible rookie campaign) and a current ERA+ of 74. His K/BB rate is horrendous, he’s a pitch-to-contact guy on a crappy defensive team and he averages almost exactly 6 innings per start in his career, which means he is usually going to put a strain on the bullpen.
Just because you have the money to do two chicks at once doesn’t mean you spend it all and settle for one ugly one in the pairing. Save your dream for another day when you can get at least two average ones.
Your position kind of implicitly assumes...
…that we have four other SPs right now who are all also better than Duke. I’m not convinced of the truth of that premise.
A lot of your benchmarks are either irrelevant or misleading:
*Duke’s ERA+ does not reflect the quality of the defense behind him – it merely adjusts for park and league. As such, it is not a fair representation of his value.
*Duke’s K/BB rate is NOT horrendous. It’s 1.89 this season, and 1.92 for his career. Average varies from year to year, but is usually right around 2.
*Duke is a pitch-to-contact guy on a crappy defensive team, but since there’s no real advantage gained from fielding a crappy defense, why not improve the defense rather than dumping Duke?
*6 innings per start is, as with the K/BB rate, a pretty normal figure for modern SPs. NL average for 2010 to date is, for instance, 5.94 innings per start.
Duke isn’t the ugly chick in the threesome. Duke is an average chick in the threesome, only you can’t see it because you’re blind from cataracts or a detached retina or some other kind of eye problem (i.e. defensive problem, for the slow learners in the class), and you don’t want to pay to get your eyes (i.e. defense) fixed. So you try to form a half-assed impression of what she looks like by feeling her face with your hand, or something like that, and you miss out on your threesome.
For their careers...
Duke: xFIP 4.39, K/BB 1.89, WHIP 1.64
Ohlie: xFIP 4.71 K/BB 1.89, WHIP 1.39
I wouldn’t mind keeping both of them, but Ohlie is basically Duke, except he pitches more innings, and he gets paid less…If Duke’s $5 mil can go other places, I’m fine with that
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
A third of a run of FIP is significant. Plus, Duke is able to pitch a lot more innings than Ohlendorf.
I don’t get the trust in Ohlie after two years. He looks like a powder keg to me because of flyball rate and giving too many free passes, plus injuries.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
All WHIP is telling you there...
…is that Duke gives up a lot of hits (the H in WHIP) because he puts balls in play and our defense isn’t able to field them.
But they are able to field Ohlie's?
I do get it. And I don’t think Duke is mud. I think he’s a decent pitcher, but all I’m saying is that if the Pirates could use that $5 mil towards something, then I say go for it because you’re going to get about the same from Ohlendorf.
I don’t get the trust in Duke…he’s been okay for the Pirates, sometimes. As I’ve said, I’m fine keeping him, but if we can get something else for his money, I say cut bait.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Sometimes able.
Mostly, Ohlie doesn’t put as many balls in play, so the fielders don’t have as many chances to ruin his shit for him.
You could get something else for Duke’s money – but given that Duke is currently underpaid relative to his level of ability, it would probably be something less valuable than Duke.
Your argument to keep Duke
is like your GF telling you you have to buy her these $100 blue shoes, because if she ever gets a blue dress to go with them she will look pretty good.
I.E. Duke would be ok for a good defensive team… we don’t have one, so no point keeping Duke.
That alone should be enough, but he’s also not a value anymore if he’s going to get $5.5m+. On top of that, the whole BABIP argument holds a lot less water when you consider how hard he gets rocked most times out there. Harder hit balls are going to find holes more often.
I made a blog post on how to get the blue dress (never though I’d ever type that!).
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The one about Andy you mean?
I think he’s our best bet until someone gives me a better idea than Orlando Hudson. I’m convinced Pedro should be moved, Walker not as much. The only way I’d move Walker is if we traded for a 2B (as the FA options are awful) or D’Arnaud took a giant leap forward in the offseason.
I think the FO has given up on his bat, and I can’t disagree. .637 OPS for his Pirates career doesn’t work anywhere except backup catcher.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Career BABIP in the .260’s, huge minor league pedigree and he’s already been competent in the majors. I think he’s somewhat streaky and got benched during a cold streak. If they distrust his ability to stay healthy a whole year, I can agree. Otherwise, I think they’re making a mistake.
Also, if he flunks out around June you can shift Walker over to 3B and bring up Chase to play 2B. And yeah, none of the options are pretty but it makes a lot more sense to me than paying some 34 year old 2B $4-5m who was never very good to start with.
Andy looks toast to me. I like Hudson’s trade value better than what LaRoche brings to the table, and I also don’t see any reason to rush Chase to the majors after a rocky 2010 for him.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
"Duke would be ok for a good defensive team… we don’t have one, so no point keeping Duke"
I have a garage, but no car to keep in it. Should I knock my garage down, to save on heating bills?
The argument about Duke “getting rocked” would be a lot more persuasive if the defense-independent metrics didn’t already account for that by considering pitchers’ line drive rates. Duke’s line drive rate this year (20.2%) is actually lower than his career average (20.6%). So what’s the argument here? He consistently gives up fly balls that are hit too hard to field, but not hard enough to leave the park? He consistently gives up ground balls that just happen to go where fielders aren’t supposed to be every damn time?
He consistently gives up ground balls that just happen to go where fielders aren’t supposed to be every damn time
Well now, that’s just bad strategy. Perhaps he though Wee Willie Keeler was a pitcher?
wait...
why are you heating your garage? Does the dog live there?
by BlindSquirrel on Sep 9, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn,
you didn’t invite me over to shoot pool…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 10, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Aha!
so you’re still using the garage, and paying for that usage with heating bills.
QED.
by BlindSquirrel on Sep 12, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
what Duke was doing his rookie year, and unfortunately nobody else does either. Career numbers for him should throw that out. Compare them from when Ohlie entered the league.
Also, don’t use K/BB, use K/9 and BB/9. I think it’s more illustrative and telling.
Look, maybe it isn’t rationale on my part, but I’ve wanted to like Duke for six years for a variety of reasons. While I put most of my faith in the numbers the three things I don’t buy on this year’s Pirates are all related to defensive metrics. I’ve spent time with John Dewan and others and they will tell you we are 50% of the way to where we are with hitting (which might be about 100% btw). We have a BAD defensive team, but me view vs. the metrics is MIlledge is worse, Walker is better, Cutch about right.
Duke is not the right guy on this team and if the Padres do sign him I think we might quickly see he isn’t the right guy for the major leagues. But that’s just opinion.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Doesn't matter...
who pitches until the defense improves. If you are not a strikeout pitcher, you are not going to have a lot of success with the defense the Pirates are rolling out every night.
by Thunder on Sep 9, 2010 2:57 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
And more alarming
There’s absolutely no prospects (ha!) for the IF defense improving in the next couple years at least. The MI appears to be set (and there’s no one better on the horizon), Pedro at 1B will be no better than Jones, and we don’t actually have a 3B replacement for Pedro. Short of fantasies about Rendon (and although his D is supposed to be better than Pedro’s, I don’t know that it’ll actually be good), it’s a very grim situation. Walker may show some improvement, and maybe Bowker or Pearce turn out to be marginally better at 1B, but those are very marginal improvements.
Sigh.
Reading on
I see that the most improvement comes from moving Walker to 3B and upgrading 2B, which makes sense. But in terms of internal options, there’s still nothing there. And, as we’ve learned, decent 2Bs can turn into mirages.
Bring back Freddy!
</joke
Moving our pieces give us something like :
Walker to 3B, Pedro to 1B, Jones to RF, void at 2B, Milledge to the bench
So, basically, we need a new 2B with a good glove who hits better than Milledge (278/333/382 as of 9/9).
And they don’t grow on trees.
I actually looked up for those guys : (UZR/150>0 and OPS>715 in 200+ AB) and came up with 10 names.
Stars : Cano, Utley, Phillips, Pedroia, Kinsler and Hudson
And rather unexpected guys : Kelly Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Freddy Sanchez and … Jeff Keppinger (!?)
Well ...
I’d argue that’s partly true.
If you move the pieces around, as I would, you get a much better defensive team if you can find a good glove for 2b.
It’s not a simple substitution of Lastings for a 2b.
If you use a platoon of Garrett-Lastings in RF and find an above average 2b, I’d argue you are better offensively and defensively.
Duke
First, I would have been ticked if I had to pay to watch him pitch last night. I was ticked just watching it on MLB.
Second, I really doubt they non-tender him. I think he is a modestly priced placeholder until the AA guys (and McDonald) are in the rotation. There is also the possibility he can pull a Nady and establish value next year.
Third, I suggested if Hardy becomes available that he be their top priority. But find a good defensive shortstop. Move Cedeno to 2b. Move Walker to 3b. Put Alvarez at 1b. I know it’s a lot of transition. But even when they get power arms, you cannot have such putrid infield defense.
I do think that moving Walker to either 3B or RF would be a smart move though. Go find a 2B who can hit and play some defense.
Orlando Hudson maybe
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Mark
I think Cedeno’s hitting would be okay there. Outside the Chase Utleys of the world, I don’t think 2b is that much of a power position than SS.
Moreover, throw in the added defense (over the Pirates’ other options) and I think the move would help the pitching staff immensely.
Also, I think he’s more than a low-end hitting SS. He’s more average to just below average to me.
But you combine that with good defense and I don’t think he’s a terrible option.
That being said, your proposal may work out better. I guess it depends on who is out there and signable.
League hitting, by position:
MLB SS, 2010: .265/.322/.376 (.698)
MLB 2B, 2010: .266/.331/.393 (.724)
MLB 3B, 2010: .268/.330/.424 (.754)
The gap between 2B and SS is smaller than the gap between 2B and 3B.
The SS market this offseason is really grim. I’d leave Cedeno at short for one more year, unless something drops into our laps trade-wise, sign a better 2B, move Walker to 3B, and move Pedro to 1B.
worth giving
Negrych or Friday a shot at 2B? Anyone know if their defense projects to be better than Walkers?
Negrych no
Friday maybe, he’s looked fine when I’ve seen him, but not enough to justify the black hole of his bat.
We’re better off kicking the tires on Hudon, Punto or Uribe.
Or maybe even Omar Vizquel at second, as ridiculous as that sounds.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Friday is an OK defender...
…but I don’t know that the bat’s up for anything more than UT IF duty. And Negrych isn’t a 2B any more than Young is.
Hudson would be a nice target, and so would Mark Ellis, if the price is right.
If we absolutely had to go with an internal replacement...
…I’d probably stage a death-match this spring between D’Arnaud and Mercer.
You'd let one of them skip 3A?
As it is, both are just about competent at 2A, and Mercer less so than D’Arnaud (I am talking about the bat only… I have no idea about fielding).
Seems like the kind of risk that would end with the one picked dropping off the face of the earth in 2-3 years.
Well, yeah.
Which is why that’s like Plan Z for me. But if you artificially limit our options to Friday and Diaz and Ciriaco and D’Arnaud and Mercer, I go with the guy who has the highest chance of not being awful, even if there’s also a chance of blowing up his career by mistake.
i see
I wasn’t suggesting going with Friday or Negrych really… just wondering if they could fake it there for a year passably, since I know so little about them (which already says something) and since Friday is at the highest level that is not the majors, and Negrych has seen some time in 3A at least.
What about Andy at 2B?
In your internal options only scenario of course. But if he can be a plus defender at second and hit like 2009 or better then he is probably our best option. I guess it just seems the range will still be too insufficient.
Andy
I also considered that. He would have to work hard in the off season to make his defense about average.
Moreover, he needs to hit as he did two years ago.
Otherwise, I don’t think he’s much of an option.
Andy
he may have. I just haven’t seen enough to say whether he can play the position competently.
It’s one thing to start training for a marathon.
It’s another to finish it in a good time.
I suspect he can play it. I’d let him compete for the job. But I would not go to camp with him as option a. If he pulls a Walker and surprises, then you can start him. But, at a minimum, he needs to compete for the job.
If he's on the roster next year...
…it’s probably as a 2B/3B backup. As such, he probably ought to try and get some work in at 2B over the offseason, maybe in winter ball, so that he’s prepared for 2011.
It's not out of the question that he'd be able to play 2B.
But I sure wouldn’t want to go into a season with that as the main plan. Particularly if doing so required two other guys to change positions as well.
Interesting
that 2Bs are simply better overall than SSs, while 3Bs are more powerful, with essentially identical AVG and OBP.
Vlad
Thanks Vlad,
I put that up before doing the research because I was late for work. I didn’t remember the difference in 2b and ss being that significant. My mistake.
That being said, Cedeno’s line this year: .248, .290, .375 (.664).
So yes, he would be below average at 2b as a hitter. But I think his defense would make him an average player.
But if a Hardy falls to you, I’d consider it because the pitching staff is so defensive needy.
At the same time, I think there are going to be some interesting 2b options available, and it is an easier position to find.
It varies somewhat year-to-year.
So I figured that for the purposes of the discussion, it’d be best if we got the current lay of the land.
I think the move with Duke is going to depend on who they think they can get.
Is there a possibility of picking up someone better in free agency? Right now we’re looking at JMac, Ohlie, Maholm and who else for the rotation? Yuk. It’s ugly.
Only ugly for awhile
1or 2 of the Altoona guys will be ready in June. Regardless of overall talent level, we can easily find someone of Duke’s actual performance as a FA or even NRI to fill in.
Bottom line: this will still be a .333 team next April, barring a couple of major moves (such as finding a really good MI or RF). But next August could see some sort of on-field improvement.
Rotation....
Tooting my own horn here. I’ve argued that this would be the case for two months now. This isn’t really about whether Duke is good or not, it’s about whether he is going to be good on this Pirates team. Clearly the answer is a resounding NO. Christ, if they had the choice of non-tendering Maholm they’d probably do that too. Paying Duke $5+ million makes zero sense. The results for the last six years speak for themselves. And, before anyone throws it out there, I’m sure they will look to trade him first, but no one will give up more than a C- prospect, so don’t expect anything in return. If he wants to come back for $3 million, fine.
As to Mark’s point about the rotation, I agree. Next year’s rotation in April is JMac, Ohlie, Maholm and two guys. In September I would imagine it is JMac, Ohlie, Locke and some combination of Morris, Lincoln, Owens, Hart, Ascanio and Veal. Believe it or not, that sounds kind of interesting to me. Not good, mind you, interesting. At least the process of getting the young guys to the majors will have started.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
What's the point...
…in bringing young guys to the majors ahead of schedule, just so they can get stabbed in the liver by the same defense that’s destroyed Duke and Maholm this year?
Fix. The. Defense.
Keerist, this isn’t that hard.
Who says
Next September is ahead of schedule? What’s the basis for that? And I picked one of three guys in AA for my list. The rest have ML experience.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
by David Todd on Sep 9, 2010 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You have, in all likelihood...
…three out of Locke, Morris, and Owens in the rotation in November. Particularly given that McCutchen is unlikely to hold a rotation spot all year.
Already given up on Lincoln?
Morris and/or Owens come up if they’re ready, but otherwise you’ve got 4 guys who are closer and could possibly work as 4/5 guys. Nobody’s getting rushed here.
Lincoln plus McCutchen plus Ohlendorf...
…probably equals two full-year starters, given Ohlendorf’s questionable health and McCutchen’s marginal talent.
McCutchen
I think NH has decided that McCutchen’s future with the Pirates is out of the pen.
I don’t think he’s a terrible option as one of your last RPs.
But I’d be real surprised to see him in the rotation next year.
Can’t his future be out of the team? He doesn’t strikeout anybody, walks a bunch, and gives up a truckload of deep fly balls.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't complain
But I do think the front office is trying to see if he’s more effective as an RP.
Almost everyone would be more effective out of the pen. When you start at a bad point, though, that’s not saying much.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that hard?
With whom are you fixing the defense? Orlando Hudson, with his -10.3 defensive runs over the last 5 seasons? Juan Uribe with his whopping +8 runs over 4 years?
Nick Punto at least adds real defensive value, but he’s a terrible hitter.
As for SS, you’ve already said yourself that there are no good SS options this year.
We may be able to marginally improve, but I just don’t see any internal options or affordable external options that will turn this group into a slick-defending one.
Hudson is a lot better on Dewan’s +/- than UZR, he’s the fourth best second baseman over that period behind Utley, Ellis and Hill.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
And Total Zone
says +5 over the last 5. Color me dubious. More importantly, he’s getting old for a MI, and he won’t be cheap, not with all that hardware.
I thought that too over the last couple of seasons but he keeps being a late signing for between $3 and $5 million.
Its not a lock but its worth looking into.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Hudson
would never come to Pittsburgh and views himself as a $5 million player.
It’s not happening.
And Uribe has the advantage of being an above average bat AND glove.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Bat
Mostly on the basis of the last 2 years. His career wRC+ is 83, career wOBA is .311, which is on the edge between middle and bottom third of all ML 2Bs.
And he’s on the wrong side of 30. I’m not very interested in $5M guys who’ll get us from 101 to 98 losses next year and be out of baseball by the time we’re contending.
Given that his bat is comparable to what we play at first
The defensive upgrade is still probably worth the price.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Only if you look very narrowly
Basically, if you look only at 2010. Any kind of broader look puts Jones miles ahead of Uribe, who had a career year in 2009. Look at Uribe’s wOBAs:
.304
.291
.286
.296
.351
.316
How much are you willing to bet that he keeps up the last 2 years rather than regressing to the .290 hitter he’d been the previous 4 years (his peak years, incidentally)?
I’m not saying his bat is awful for a 2B, I’m just disputing “above average bat” for 2B. An above average bat for 2B is Neil Walker, at wOBA .363.
Barry Bonds would probably be an above-average bat at 2B, too.
Doesn’t mean I want him playing there for us next year.
I’m not terribly far from suggesting that next.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
My line was straight hyperbole
And I don’t really want to stump for Uribe in the first place but I do firmly believe that market second baseman/Walker/Alvarez is worth significantly more than Walker/Alvarez/Jones.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Just not sure that it’s great value. A lot of it depends on Walker – first of all, what he can do at 3B (iirc, he had a solid defensive rep there), and second of all, what his ceiling is at 2B. Note that he came into this season with less 2B experience than DY had last year; anyone care to argue that his D hasn’t been superior? Point being, he’s not doomed to being a -10 defender – but there’s no guarantee he improves (much) either. So you could get a -3 season for Hudson in place of a -5 season from Walker, which is a lot of effort for not much (granting that Walker for Pedro’s a certain upgrade).
Scouts pretty uniformly regarded Walker...
…as a plus defender at 3B. From a personal perspective, 3B would seemt to do a good job of hiding what looks to me like his biggest weakness at 2B (lateral range).
Right on the range
So does that make him, say, a +5 defender? +10? I mean, even being 0 relative to Pedro’s -5 is a win, but I want to see additional effects from all this effort to rearrange the IF.
Here’s the thing: a +10 wRAA at 2B is #6 in the league (among qualifiers); at 3B, it’s #10; at 1B, it’s #16. You’re sliding both Pedro and Walker to positions where their bats play significantly less well, and the question is whether the defensive gains balance that out. Gaining 10 defensive runs doesn’t help much if you give up 10 offensive ones.
I think it’s worth doing; I just wonder if we’ll get the impact we’re hoping for. It probably relies heavily on NFW turning Pedro’s -5 into a +5 or more, which alone covers any likely offensive dropoff at 2B.
Calling Pedro a -5 at 3B...
…seems EXTREMELY generous to me.
If you go with a less optimistic assessment of his current level of ability there, he doesn’t have to be as good at 1B for it to make sense.
Yeah
That’s actually his number for this year to date – his UZR/150 is -10.9.
It’s late in the year, so I’ve probably been too lazy at comparing 2010 numbers (5/6 of a season even for guys who didn’t get mid-year callups) with full season numbers.
Aside from anything else they did
The defense would improve just by moving Walker to third and getting a second baseman with exceptional range. Move Chubby Checker to 1st (you think Jones sucks, just watch the botching and wailing with Petey at 1st, minus the saves of horrible throws you get from Alvarez— oh wait, that should work because he won’t be making those horseshit throws from third anymore). Moving right along, platoon Milledge and Jones in right. I’m assuming they’ll deal Doumit, but who knows? Anyway, that should give you a better defense. Until we determine that Pedro can’t play the field, and we deal him to the AL for a shortstop, or something else.
by RichieHebner on Sep 9, 2010 11:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How many
throwing errors does Pedro really have?
And Jones has to scoop throws from Cedeno and NFW, too…
*Note: I am not advocating keeping Jones at 1B, I’m just sayin’ you’re being a little hard on the Beaver, Ward.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 10, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
i am not a fan of the Duker
and im not agreeing with his defense always letting him down… 5 years of letting him down??? Duke has been the most hittable pitcher in the national league the past 5 seasons. he has to pitch a near perfect game to be affective. he should make at least 5MM next season, maybe even 6MM. i say sign someone else for that amount and see if hes as bad as Duke HAS ALWAYS BEEN!
"5 years of letting him down???"
Yes. Our defense has been among the worst in the league in every season he’s pitched for us, except last year. When he put up the best full-season ERA of his career.
not good enough reason to keep Duke...
hes extremely hittable, always has been. that will not change. saying that Duke is a pitch to contact pitcher basically tells me that he cant get anyone out on his own… wait, thats selfish, all pitchers need help… ahhh, $#@! it, he’s not worth keeping anyway
The reason that he's "extremely hittable"...
…is that we’ve consistently put him in front of guys who turn outs into hits, by not being able to field.
Lots of pitch-to-contact have had long, successful careers for good teams. Look at John Tudor, for example.
The stats show that Duke suffers from bad defense
My eyes for five years show me that he gives up a shitload of uncatchable balls. I’m not kidding. I got curious weeks ago and began watching every one if his starts as carefully as I could. Vlad and I end up agreeing on a lot, and while I’ll give some berth to the location charts, I have seen a lot of balls that were smoked where the sun don’t shine. I have therefore decided to trust my eyes and have concluded that he sucks, and will continue to suck, whether he is in Atlanta, San Diego or the Polo Grounds with Willie Mays in center field.
by RichieHebner on Sep 9, 2010 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hebner, vlad dont watch games
he feels milledge and doumit are plus bats and fielders..the computer tells him so.
Duke literally has the worst numbers in all of baseball over the past 5 years, his 85-86 MPH straight fastball and 65 MPH curve get hit hard consistantly. He only has a good game when the ump gives an extra 6" off the plate.
Vlad speaks as though the bucs are well above .500, he’s got to be NH’s son, alias, or lover. Pgh has just had bad luck, all these guys are above average players, it’s just our fieldings bad though our RF’ers are very good because his computer tells him so.
Staff
I’d be surprised if Ascanio and Hart are healthy enough to rejoin the rotation next year.
Maybe. But I never was a fan of them as SPs. They look more like bullpen options to me, particularly with the injury they suffered.
I dont think either
of them have much of a shot next year. I also think Veal might well get left off the 40 man
No One mentioned D'ohmit who can't hold runners and adds 2 Points to the ERA of
any pitcher he catches, and D’ohmit always seems to be catching Duke.
So I agree that Duke can do better with strong defense, but the weakest link is catcher who turns walks and singles in to doubles because he can’t hold runners.
Hey Vlad, help with some Math here, You are The Man when it comes to stats
1 – what is the average ERA for Starting Pitchers this year for each Pirate Catcher?:
D’ohmit
Snyder
Kratz
JJ
Thanks in advance!
That's not going to tell you anything useful.
Read this. CERA is a pretty garbage metric.
If you want to disregard all the reasearch in that area and assume that CERA is useful, BTW, you’d still need to adjust for the quality of the pitchers caught by each catcher, since a catcher catching worse pitchers will understandably tend to have a higher CERA regardless of his own level of ability.
It would just be an interesting starting point, just to see if there is a big variance
in ERA between the catchers. If you can do this with your stat wizardry it would be a fun stat to look at even if not the end all of accuracy.
ESPN lists CERA in their sortable stats.
Pirate catchers by CERA, 2010:
Kratz: 4.56
Doumit: 5.05
Snyder: 5.43 (Pit and AZ #s combined)
Jaramillo: 5.72
That’s the whole staff, though, not just with SP on the mound. And like I said, I wouldn’t put much stock in it.
Thanks, didn’t know ESPN had it. I’d love to distill this down to starting pitching, but probably too much work to do this.
There must also be some other ratio that relates Stolen Bases and how many of those ended up scoring. Somehow a catcher giving up tons of stolen bases must add to the pitcher’s ERA.
What you need...
…is a run expectancy matrix like this one, only for the current offensive context rather than ‘99-’02. Generate a list of the game situations in which runners tried to run on your catcher, subtract the “after” state from the “before” state for each situation to express the average cost (or benefit, for guys who got thrown out) of that result for the defensive team, and add them all up to get the total for the year.
Though again, there’s a caveat: A pitching staff’s ability to hold runners can have a significant effect on the CS% of that team’s catcher. Which is why you’ll sometimes see a big swing in a catcher’s CS% when he moves to a new team (and a new staff).
Is it too late to get Kratz back?
At this point I’m ready to try anything, even if it probably won’t work.
By this math
Rickey Henderson would have increased his team’s wins in a single season by at least 32, with 2 additional runs per game, and 10 runs accounting for an extra team win.
Rickey supports this new math
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
by David Todd on Sep 9, 2010 10:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Non-tendering Duke would be stupid.
We aren’t going to get a better SP than him for the same money that he’d get in arb, and no pitchers are going to look good in front of The Gang That Couldn’t Field Straight. We’d just be spending extra money to get the same result.
Pedro at first, Walker at third, a solid 2B brought in on a mid-range deal. It’ll work wonders.
I also pretty much guarantee...
…that if we do non-tender Duke, he’ll be a Padre before the door closes behind him.
What do
You think they would pay him?
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
by David Todd on Sep 9, 2010 10:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hard to say.
Depends on market interest. In terms of defense-neutral quality, he’s about the same as Jon Garland, and they gave Garland $4.7M this year.
Can we budget an improvement at second AND Duke though?
Would it perhaps make more sense to spend the $5 million that Duke would cost to bring in Hudson or Punto? I certainly think so, especially if it helps the young pitchers that may come up next season.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Still rather use +/- for second baseman, and in general really, and Hudson does much better there.
SO DO WANT.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
now duke in PETCO park would be a win-win for the padres
probably the only place where Zach could earn his paycheck
Betcha he will
And I once thought he’d be good there. Bet good money he’ll suck there too.
by RichieHebner on Sep 9, 2010 11:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What do you think Walker does at 3B?
He’s -8 at 2B, while Pedro is -5.3. Setting aside the precise accuracy of those numbers, do you really think that Walker does much more than get 3B to average? And do you think that strong-armed Pedro is going to be a vast defensive upgrade over Jones?
Point being, I’m seeing maybe 2.5 wins, if I’m optimistic. Which isn’t exactly wondrous.
Fair point
My gut and eyes tell me that its a sizable upgrade but there just aren’t the numbers to say anything conclusively.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
It's possible
That, given our contact-heavy staff, we’d see an outsized effect from defensive improvements. But 2.5 wins is already on the upside – taking Pedro’s -5.3 to Walker’s 0, Walker’s -8 to Punto’s +10, and Jones’ -5 to -3. Even if you imagine that the impact on Duke and Maholm and Lincoln is disproportionate, you maybe get 4 more wins. Which gets us within sniffing distance of 60.
It's about asset value too.
Right now, we’re talking about non-tendering Zach Duke this offseason, where a team with a decent defense would be talking about trading him for prospects or extending him.
Good point
That said, do you think that the proposed IF above is good enough to let Duke and Maholm realize their xFIPs? Making Duke into merely a bad-looking SP, instead of one of the worst, doesn’t make him suddenly worth a B prospect.
Particularly...
…at a below-average financial cost, which Duke’s 2010 arb award would be for an average starter.
No way to know for sure.
We don’t have any data on how well Pedro could play 1B, don’t have nearly enough info on how well Walker can play 3B, and don’t know what 2B we’d be plugging in (or how well he’d age, given that most of the options in FA are on the wrong side of 30).
So there’s a large element of guesstimating/wishcasting involved.
Exactly
That’s a big part of my concern – all that movement and expense, and it could end up being a 1 win move (if Pedro==Jones, if Walker at 3B is average, and if the new 2B regresses to be where Walker would be in his second season at 2B) that does no more than get Duke halfway from his ERA to his xFIP.
Probably still worth doing, especially if you either really like the 2B that you can sign or if you’re certain that NFW is a plus major league defender at 3B.
Sure but if Duke has no value to us, and everyone knows that Duke has no value to us, then just what can we expect in return for him?
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
The point
is to rebuild his value for us by putting solid defenders behind him. That doesn’t make him valuable now, but 3 months of a 4.7 ERA with compatible peripheral numbers make him valuable to anyone (with a solid D).
Sure but if the budget ends up being between Duke and a middle infielder then its more value for the franchise to add the middle infielder and improve the value of the pitchers who are left rather than keep Duke and have him continue to be pulled down.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Sep 9, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
If we can't afford both a mid-price middle infielder and a $2M raise for Duke...
…then we have much bigger problems.
Seriously ...
if we can’t afford Duke, we need to pack up and leave.
When you talk Cutch and Pedro in a few years, that’s a different discussion.
the same thing happened with capps. i hope we can get a prospect. this may have eliminated any trade value
i guess the question is does nh think he can find a starter of dukes skill level for less than costs us at arbitration.
by karreemofwheat on Sep 9, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Even if we did, that still leaves 2 (!) spots in the rotation worse than Duke.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
No, he'll be worse than Jones
Pedro, unfortunately, is a DH.
by RichieHebner on Sep 10, 2010 12:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just about any pitcher is better than him, his numbers are horrible this year and the last 5 years
This guy cant break a pane of glass and his pitches dont sink and tail like they did his rookie year, IF YOU EVER WATCHED A GAME instead of playing computer games, you’d realize he’s LOST just about all velocity and movement.
Walker’s numbers are very good for 2B, he’s a good fielder now and will get better w/ experience (a off season w/ Maz will help)…his numbers are avg for a 3B, why would you move him? He’s much more valuable at 2B
If we get a 2B that hits 20 plus HR’s and 90 RBI’s in FA I’d agree but we aren’t going to find that. We dont score runs, we need either a RF’er or 1B who can produce a 20+/90+/ who’s atleast adequate in the field. It’s easier to find that at a reasonable price than a 2B who hits like that. We may already have a guy or two that fit that mold, Moss or Bowker but we’ll never know because some jacka$$ feels doumit and Milledge deserve to play regularly.
Walker’s not the great problem for Duke nor Duke JR (Maholm). This is his first year at 2B, he’s done a heck of a job for most part and definitely athletic enough to play there ( I dont really care what your computer tells you, Milledge and Doumit are plus fielders in right LMAO)
Watch a frickn game, neither can judge a flyball.
We have a guy who gave up 53 hits in 82 innings/ 91 K’s w/ a 2.08 ERA in AAA (as a starter) and we are throwing out names like Burress, Mccutchen ect as possible starters yet forgo the guy who has BY FAR the most dominant numbers…He deserves a shot at the least, his stuff is there and supposedly has very good off speed stuff that doesn’t get used in relief.
Vlad or NH or Mrs NH, your allstar players Milledge,Doumit, Duke are the REAL REASON’S THIS TEAM STINKS, it’s not Walker, Tabata, and the other young kids…and the number 1 culprit is JR himself, that team is underperforming badly, it’s a morgue-like setting, JR makes it clear it’s OK losing, and he’ll compliment a 5 inning 6 run pitched game saying he threw it well, just a bad inning and bad luck LOL. Yeah right.
Combining threads
I would be reasonably satisfied with the following lineup for 2011:
Cutch CF
Tabata LF
Walker 3B
Alvarez 1B
Jones/Milledge RF
Doumit/Snyder C
Hudson 2B
Cedeno SS
I think that’s at least average defense at every position except maybe C (RF just below average, but close enough), and appropriate wOBA at every position, or so we hope. An average team that gives our average pitchers a better chance to achieve mediocrity, but that would be a huge improvement, of course.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves
Actually, if his bat holds up, he can move back to 2B – not ideal, but Juanlando Punto will be gone by then, and no one else is coming, so….
Even if we draft Rendon next year, which isn't a given...
…he probably isn’t going to sign or move much more quickly than Pedro did. Which means an ETA of mid-2013.
As such, we don’t need to know the answer to that question right now. We can re-assess our situation in a year or two.
What about Cedeno and Ciraco(sp?) at MI ? Walker at 3b, Jones and Pearce RF. Ciraco is batting 1000.
by oldfrothingslosh on Sep 9, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
I think Ciriaco's bat is too weak for regular play.
We’re talking about a guy who’s putting up an OPS in the .600s in AAA.
Sorry Vlad
That was a poor attempt at tongue in cheek but I bit off more then I could chew (dammit did it again)
by oldfrothingslosh on Sep 9, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Naw, it's my fault.
I get Very Serious when I’m in arguing mode, and I don’t spot humor unless it’s dropped on my head from a great height.
No, that's the other joke:
Two guys walk into a bar. You’d think the second one would’ve ducked.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 10, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
If Duke is non-tendered for financial purpose, the the Chris Snyder deal looks worse in hindsight, since he didn’t even add barely an upgrade at the catcher spot and costs $5 million.
I think you’re right, here. Didn’t the Diamondbacks pick up $3.5 million or so? If true, then never mind.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
They did ...
and also took us off the hook for some useless player salaries, e.g., Church and Crosby.
Now that Duke is the scapegoat, does this mean we’re very likely to keep Alvarez at 3B and Walker at 2B, with maybe upgrades at 1B and RF?
I actually think that's the most likely course
Maybe not upgrades at 1B and RF, but I think the default move at this point is to drop Duke, hope for noticeable improvement from Walker (likely) and Pedro (not likely), and look for a big bopper for 1B or RF. Given the paucity of really good options at 2B (mostly too old, imo), I couldn’t really blame them for that. A Walker who could wOBA .350 and UZR/150 -5 would be a great asset, certainly a better value than any FA 2B and a better player than anyone in the system (at least in the upper half of the system).
Defensive improvement, that is
for PA and NW. PA’s bat should improve (a lot, we hope), and NW’s should regress (a bit, we hope).
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