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Evan Meek The Only Bullpen Holdover Since 2008

PITTSBURGH - SEPTEMBER 06:  Evan Meek #47 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the game on September 6 2010 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. The Pirates beat the Braves 3-1.  (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times has a new article on bullpen turnover and which teams have replaced most of their bullpens since 2008. The Pirates, unsurprisingly, are on that list.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, the team most associated with fire sales and massive turnover, has Evan Meek heading into the season as a potential closer candidate. Meek was 25 in 2008 when he made nine bullpen appearances for the Pirates.

They also have Jeff Karstens still kicking around, though he wasn't in the bullpen in 2008. Karstens made nine starts that year, but in 2009 and 2010 has bounced back and forth between starting and the bullpen. So, we can't count him since he wasn't a reliever in 2008. Tyler Yates is a non-roster invitee by the Pirates this spring after pitching out of the bullpen in 2008 and 2009. But like Jimenez, he wasn't around in 2010, so we don't count him. So, one guy: Meek.

The idea is that teams that lose a lot (Mariners, Nationals, Pirates) or turn over their roster rapidly (Marlins, Pirates) churn through relievers even more quickly than most teams, which of course makes sense - you can't really rebuild a 100-loss team by focusing on the bullpen.

The Pirates' 2008 bullpen consisted of Matt Capps, a bunch of guys who were traded (Damaso Marte, Sean Burnett, John Grabow, Jesse Chavez), and then even more guys Neal Huntington acquired cheaply in his first year on the job (Yates, Meek, Denny Bautista, T.J. Beam, Jason Davis). There was also Franquelis Osoria (who was a holdover from the Littlefield days) Romulo Sanchez (who came through the farm system), Marino Salas (acquired in the Salomon Torres trade) and Craig Hansen (acquired in the Jason Bay trade). And then there was Meek, who was a completely clueless-looking Rule 5 pick in 2008 but turned out to be quite good once he'd had some time in the minors.

It was a pretty bad, patchwork bullpen overall, especially after Marte left, but the 2011 edition probably won't be a whole lot better, raising the possibility that the entire group, or close to it, will be turned over again by 2013 or 2014. That isn't the worst thing in the world, since bullpens should probably be the last part of a contending team to come together, and not the first. But it's not good, either.

Meek, Joel Hanrahan and hopefully Chris Resop should form a pretty good core this season, but after that there will have to be a lot of lucky breaks for the Pirates to have a good bullpen. Probably the best chance for things to come together is for Diego Moreno to blast his way through Classes AA and/or AAA and become a shutdown reliever fairly quickly. That's at least a possibility, if not a terribly likely one.

Beyond that, things get even more speculative, and you have to look very hard to find guys whose upside for 2011 is better than a hint above replacement level. Tony Watson as a LOOGY? Maybe. Jose Ascanio miraculously returning from injuries? Eh. Mike Crotta moved to a relief role? Fernando Nieve finally putting things together? I'm really trying here.

Other than that, most of the highest-level pitchers who aren't assured of big-league jobs are legitimate starter prospects who the Pirates will probably want to keep starting (Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson), or injury question marks (Kevin Hart, Donnie Veal), or guys who, in my view, just don't have a ton of upside (Jeff Karstens, Scott Olsen, Chris Leroux, Dan McCutchen, Danny Moskos, Justin Thomas, Cesar Valdez, etc. etc. etc.).

I've moved a lot in the past seven or eight years, and it seems like whenever I do, I stumble across a copy of Baseball Prospectus that's four years old, and I look with pity upon the Pirates chapter. I always get some terrifying reminder that Britt Reames used to pitch for the Bucs, or that Yurendell DeCaster was sort of a prospect. Unless there's some miracle, the 2011 bullpen is likely to be like that in a few years - we'll probably remember Meek, Hanrahan and Resop as being more than footnotes, but that's about it.

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team most associated with firesales??? wtf???

i thought a team had to be really good then sell off the expensive parts for it to be called a firesale. uhhhh, marlins/indians???

by white angus on Jan 12, 2011 6:30 AM EST reply actions  

Took the words out of my mouth,

especially regarding the Marlins. Win the Series, ship the parts out the next year.

Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....

"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One

by blackjackfishtaco on Jan 12, 2011 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I stumble across a copy of Baseball Prospectus that’s four years old, and I look with pity upon the Pirates chapter. I always get some terrifying reminder that Britt Reames used to pitch for the Bucs, or that Yurendell DeCaster was sort of a prospect.

For me, that guy will always be Kevin Haverbusch. Who was apparently still an active player through 2008, if you can believe that.

Speaking of which, ever notice that ex-Pirate pseudo-prospects seem to stick around in indy ball forever? Look at Will Pennyfeather, for example, or Trey Beamon. In a way, it’s kind of neat.

by Vlad on Jan 12, 2011 9:37 AM EST reply actions  

I think Meek needs to be a sell-high candidate. He’s a great reliever, but he’s replaceable just by the nature of his role. Considering what Huntington pulled in for Dotel, I’d have to imagine that Meek would get something at least that shiny in a trade. He’s more of a regression candidate than Hanrahan, which is why I’d think about moving him now.

by Suffering Buc on Jan 12, 2011 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

or moving him at the trade deadline if hes pitching well

because that could easily bring more in return… teams in contention might have some bullpen problems due to depth or injury

by white angus on Jan 12, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Crap Article

I just took a look at the Yankees bullpen (15 games pitched in relief or more) from 2008 compared to their current roster, and they have a whopping 4 holdovers from 2008, those being Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain (who started 31 games in 2009 and was then relegated back to the pen in 2010), Damaso Marte and David Robertson.

How about the Red Sox, who have two holdovers (15+ games pitched in relief) in the persons of Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima from 2008 to today? Manny Delcarmen? Gone. Javier Lopez? Gone. Mike Timlin, Justin Masterson, David Aardsma, Craig Hansen? All gone.

The writer takes the Angels to task for having only 4 (3 if Scot Shields retires) returning guys in the pen, but then ignores the Yankees’ and Red Sox’ similar turnover. It’s sloppy and typical, portraying teams like the Pirates, Mariners and other poor-performing teams as aberrations, when in reality, many teams turn over their bullpen on a near-annual basis.

by Bishop1973 on Jan 12, 2011 10:40 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

I’m not bothered by it. Bullpens simply aren’t that big, so for the Yanks to have four holdovers (including their closer and three other guys who made 25+ appearances out of the ‘pen in ’08) is really different from the Pirates having one, who was a Rule 5 guy who barely pitched. Sam with the Red Sox – there are only two, but they’re two very important cogs in the bullpen.

I didn’t totally understand the Angels reference, but I think he might be indicating that the three guys who are holdovers didn’t really pitch much.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 12, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really bothered by it...

…but my gripe with it is that it makes it seem like the only teams that have high turnover are bad ones, when it appears that many teams cycle the middle-inning guys from year-to-year.

You’re right about the Yankees, as 4 of 8 guys is a significant percentage, but the Red Sox only return 1 more than the Pirates. True, Papelbon and, to a lesser extent, Okajima, are key pieces, but he doesn’t make a distinction in his premise; if the Pirates had held onto their closer from 2008 (Capps) and Meek, would not their pieces be just as key as the Red Sox?

I just feel like his premise is faulty; further research after my first post showed that the Phillies only have three (four if they resign Chad Durbin, which seems unlikely based on comments by their GM) and they have been successful the past few years.

Middle relievers come and go, key pieces stay; it’s true in big markets, small markets, successful markets and Pittsburgh.

by Bishop1973 on Jan 12, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Glaring exception

in your analysis… Brad Lincoln could be pretty awesome out of the pen imo. If we keep him in the rotation I just see him as a future Ian Snell (in performance only).

by Mr. E on Jan 12, 2011 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

Hmm. That could be true, but I don’t think the Pirates will want to give up on him as a starter, at least not this year.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 12, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough but

I think it’s just a numbers game at this point. He is probably No.6 or 7 (depending what they do with Olsen, Morton being out of options means no.5 for him) on the pre-season SP depth chart. He probably starts the year in AAA and by midseason is a decent bet to be getting passed by Owens, Morris and friends. If he does indeed show he has mastered AAA then the pen would be the logical place to put him. Of course there is always the trade/injury/implosion possibility where he gets a chance to establish himself once more.

by Mr. E on Jan 12, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He is probably No.6 or 7 (depending what they do with Olsen, Morton being out of options means no.5 for him) on the pre-season SP depth chart.

Behind whom, do you think? The only guys I can see clearly in front of him are McDonald, Maholm, and Ohlendorf.

by Vlad on Jan 13, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Those 3, Correia, then Morton no.5 and possibly Olsen.
As I said I think Morton gets the inside track on no.5 because he’s out of options and he wouldn’t profile as well out of the pen. If he can get major league batters out and isn’t imploding, he’s better in the rotation.

by Mr. E on Jan 14, 2011 3:57 AM EST up reply actions  

I had hoped

that 2010 was the year NH learned to assemble a bullpen. It’s now looking like 2010 was the year NH got lucky with relievers.

I don’t really think that last year was pure luck – I think he had a sound strategy, that he’d learned from mistakes in ‘08 and ’09 (#1 mistake: valuing “power arms” over anything else), and that he made good decisions (and then got lucky, with Donnelly the only bullpen failure of the offseason signings, and surprisingly few failures from the midseason pickups). But I do think that NH has failed this year in not adjusting to a changed market and now being frozen out. And so what I suspect is that NH doesn’t really “get” bullpen assembly, that he had the right strategy for the right year once, but otherwise has been clueless.

It doesn’t matter as such with a team that will struggle to win 75, but it would be nice not to see a bunch of solid starts from Morton (I hope), Locke, and Morris go down as disheartening losses.

by JRoth95 on Jan 12, 2011 12:38 PM EST reply actions  

bad interpretation maybe?

NH had to actually assemble a bullpen in 2010 and there were quite a few question marks. Heading into 2011, we know Karstens, Resop, Meek, Hanrahan. Leaving us to fill in 3 -4 open spots. The only failure to this point is the lack of lefty relieving options, otherwise, Id consider saying this could be a quite competent pen.

We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!

by C Shint on Jan 12, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

we know Karstens

Heading into 2011 with the assumption that Karstens deserves a spot is an error in and of itself.

by Vlad on Jan 12, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I was going to mock Vlad's Karstens-hate, but

he’s kind of right. I mean, I think that Karstens is fine as a top-7 reliever for a not-great team – rubber arm, not incompetent, able to spot start (which saves a lot of wear and tear on the Indy-Pgh bus) – but you shouldn’t be heading into minicamp with your 1, 2, 4, and 6 spots the only ones remotely settled. Not in a year in which #4-5 relievers have been getting multimillion, multiyear contracts.

If I thought the pieces in place comprised solid closer, setup, and full-inning lefty, plus a good multi-inning guy, then I’d be a lot less worried about tracking down a LOOGY, a swingman, and a mop-up guy. But I feel like we won’t have anyone decent to turn to if we play 3 close games in a row.

by JRoth95 on Jan 12, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

It really seems like the idea at this point is to expect that there are going to be some people step up in the Hart/Ascanio/Crotta etc. group. Arms that could be starters but also work in the pen.

If Ascanio and Hart are healthy, and that’s a big if, then we’ll probably be OK.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions  

One thing...

I actually really like Resop, and I think he’s going to work out fine as the 3 spot. I think he’s better than Dotel. We need to find the 4 and 5 spots, because, otherwise, a string of a few close games is going to pose problems, as you say

by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2011 10:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Chad Qualls is available and apparently seeking a one year deal. Would love to see him in the pen regardless of him being a righty and our need for a lefty currently

We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!

by C Shint on Jan 12, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Another boring negative blog from Chuck

What does all this rambling mean? It’s total SPAM I tell you. Someone
should report this meaningless list of ex players and future predictions
to Chuck as Spam! Chuck should email Chuck and tell him not to post
until he has something to offer here.

by pirates21 on Jan 12, 2011 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

Hmmmm….desperate much?

by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure what you’re talking about.

Neither is he.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 12, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

In this case

Chuck=Charlie. He’s saying Charlie should remove his own post. Why? Probably because this is relevant to the Pirates, and pirates21 can’t offer anything valuable to this site. At all.

Pirates, Vikings, Hokies. I'm used to heartbreak. At least I have the Penguins....

"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-The Great One

by blackjackfishtaco on Jan 12, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 12, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know anything about the Seattle bullpen

So, it’s tough to say whether the comparisons are correct or not. But, obviously if your bullpen sucks, there’s every reason to turn it over completely.

Other than Meek, the only arms worth keeping from 2008 would have been Matt Capps and Sean Burnett.

Burnett, of course, was turned into Hanrahan, who is better.
And Capps was turned into Dotel who was turned into James MacDonald.

Marte and Grabow did well on the 2008 team, but were traded and have not done all that well since their trades.

Marte (together with Nady) got us Karstens and Ohlendorf, and if you can get a decent starter out of that, that’s pretty good.

Grabow got us some surgery arms, and I guess we’ll see how those turn out this year.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2011 2:22 PM EST reply actions  

Speaking of bullpen

Wil Ledezma outrighted by the Jays… can we pick him up, and/or any chance we do?

by Cheap Beer on Jan 12, 2011 3:50 PM EST reply actions  

We could have, but didn’t.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 12, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

well one team (Jays) picked him

and the Bucs just gave him a 900K contract. If there’s something going on, it’s pretty sudden, known well enough that most passed on him, though one team still picked him.

Doubt that hypothesis

by BurgherKing on Jan 13, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I think...

… they’re referring to the fact that the Jays have since outrighted Ledezma to AAA. He had to pass through waivers again when they did, and this time no team chose him.

by GreatCthulhu on Jan 13, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Toronto loves to slide waiver claims through waivers a week later.

They’ve been doing it for years, as a cheap way of improving upper-minors depth.

by Vlad on Jan 14, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

I like the Rightys

I think the bull pen will be the least of our worries, except the lack of a stud lefty. I’m more concerned about just about every other aspect of the team. Wouldn’t surprise me if the bull pen ends up being a comparitive strength, which is a pretty scary thought. But as spring training rolls around, I’ll start getting all optimistic again, so who knows ?

6 and counting

by michaelbro8 on Jan 12, 2011 6:54 PM EST reply actions  

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