My 2011 Projections
by Scranton on Jan 15, 2011 11:03 PM EST
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I tried my hand at some projections for the 2011 season. To this point, I have gotten through our probable starting 8 position players and have decided to post them to see what people think.
My methodology was to look at the player's past 3 seasons (using minor league numbers if necessary) and get the following rates per PA: Ks, BBs, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, HBP, SF, SH. Then I projected a number of PAs for 2011 and a 2011 BABIP based on the past three seasons. I adjusted the rates (albeit, amateurishly) for age (better if young, stagnant for 26-29 down if 30+), league and park effects. I then did some minor tweaks based on the eye test (VERY minor, like a hit here or there). With the data, I came up with BA/OBP/SLUG. I parsed out Jones and Diaz v rt and left. Here are my results, let me know what you think:
Tabata: 292/349/404
Walker: 278/335/446
McCutchen: 289/378/471
Alvarez: 269/354/498
Overbay: 251/342/431
Jones v. left: 221/260/397. Jones v right: 268/335/449, Jones total: 262/325/442
Diaz v. left: 296/333/479. Diaz v. right: 247/308/371, Diaz total: 276/323/435
Jones/Diaz total (since they kinda will be used as one player): 267/324/440
Snyder: 212/329/371
Cedeno: 247/291/365
If anyone has any interest, I'll share my data/projections for Ks,BBs,2Bs,3Bs etc.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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The two hardest, to me, were Walker and Overbay.
Especially Walker. His 2010 was so out of nowhere, especially BABIP wise, that it was hard to figure if he would regress to the .315/.420 guy I thought he would be or if he would continue to improve and put up a .360/.490 season or something (I think th former is more likely). Overbay was difficult because he’s coming to an easier league but he’s getting old, so I wasn’t sure how’d they offset each other.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
lets hope Tabata's new guns will pump up that sluggin pct
by white angus on Jan 15, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
How can a platoon
Which has an OPS of 784 from Jones against RHP and an OPS of 812 from Diaz against LHP wind up with a combined OPS of 764? I guess you’re assuming that each gets a lot of AB against the “wrong” type of pitcher. Could you spell that out?
By the same token, even though Overbay is the “regular,” he’s not going to play every day. Since Pearce tends to mash LHP, the natural step would be to sit Overbay mostly against them.
Don’t let these comments suggest that this isn’t worthwhile. Have you thought about transforming this into weighted on base average and from there into predicted runs?
Viva Clemente!
Will Diaz pinch-hit for Jones every single time he’d face a lefty reliever?
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 16, 2011 11:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I used the following PA projections for Jones and Diaz (an educated guess after looking at other platoons)
Diaz PA v left: 154. Diaz v. right: 108
Jones v. left: 73. Jones v. right: 352
I also gave Overbay “only” 521 PA, which is low for a projected regular figuring he would lose time to Pearce/Bowker/Doumit (?). However, I did not take the time to try and figure out platoon splits, perhaps that’s next.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Tabata's improved muscle mass was given some thought. . .
but you hear shit like that every year so I didn’t give it much weight.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
by Scranton on Jan 16, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Line-up's looking
a little more solid than in the past if you’re right. Why not bat Joniaz (or Diones, if you prefer) 5th instead of Uberbay?
"[T]o hold the body of women in our arms is ... the one ecstasy granted to the race of men."
I would think Diaz should bat 5th against LHPs, but Overbay should probably bat 5th and Jones 6th against RHPs.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 16, 2011 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
Ha!
Ŷôũ’řę Ğōňŋå ĝǒ ńűŧś ŵĩťħ ţħĭś, ăřęň’ŧ ŷöű?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 16, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
just till the season
or we approach 100 losses
by karreemofwheat on Jan 17, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
bring on jackie gleason
one of these days Alice, pow right in your kisser
by karreemofwheat on Jan 17, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
To be honest, I didn't put a ton of thought into the line-up.
The order was just off the top of my head. I would actually prefer if Cutch and Walker were flipped.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
There’s certainly no guarantee that Alvarez will be a better hitter than Overbay, although we’re all hoping he breaks out this year. Bill James projects Overbay to have a .342 wOBA, which is only 1 point lower than Alvarez had last year.
Tabata had a .334 wOBA last year, although I do think he’ll be better than that. However, Bill James projects him at .328 wOBA, which I think is too low, but we’ll see.
Anyway, although Overbay might be a below average bat for a first basemen, that doesn’t mean he won’t be better than some of the other players we consider as good.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 16, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Tabata will
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 16, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Unfortunately, we still have the worst pitching staff and defense in the league…so the offense probably won’t matter.
I’m more optimistic with Overbay than most, I think he’ll have a better year than your projections by 25-50 points worth of OPS
It's certainly possible.
He is moving out of the toughest division in baseball to an easier league (however, with the adition of Grienke and Marcum, about 10% of our games against divisional opponets just got markedly tougher).
Of course, he is going to be 34 (I think), so 25 or so points south of my projection shouldn’t be a shock either.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Here's my projected wOBAs:
(caveat, my RBOE and IBB projections are highly speculative):
Tabata: .342
Walker: .347
McCutchen: .379
Alvarez: .367
Overbay: .348
Jones v left: .293, Jones v. right: .348 Jones total: .340
Diaz v. left: .354, Diaz v. right: .310, Diaz total: .335
Diaz/Jones: .338
Snyder: .323
Cedeno: .290
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Those all seem pretty attainable.
Not a sure thing by any means, but certainly possible. You should put your numbers into one of the lineup simulators and see the runs produced.
by MarkInDallas on Jan 17, 2011 2:19 AM EST up reply actions
Exapnded Jones and Diaz a bit
I played with some number and came up with this split if Diones or Joiz is used in a perfect platoon situation.
I came out with .271/.332/.446 with 18hrs and a slightly less than 10% walk rate. I’m ok with this as a 5 or 6 hitter.
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