FanPost

My 2011 Projections


I tried my hand at some projections for the 2011 season.  To this point, I have gotten through our probable starting 8 position players and have decided to post them to see what people think.

 

My methodology was to look at the player's past 3 seasons (using minor league numbers if necessary) and get the following rates per PA:  Ks, BBs, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, HBP, SF, SH.  Then I projected a number of PAs for 2011 and a 2011 BABIP based on the past three seasons.  I adjusted the rates (albeit, amateurishly) for age (better if young, stagnant for 26-29 down if 30+), league and park effects.  I then did some minor tweaks based on the eye test (VERY minor, like a hit here or there). With the data, I came up with BA/OBP/SLUG.  I parsed out Jones and Diaz v rt and left.  Here are my results, let me know what you think:

 

Tabata:  292/349/404

Walker: 278/335/446

McCutchen: 289/378/471

Alvarez:  269/354/498

Overbay:  251/342/431

Jones v. left:  221/260/397. Jones v right:  268/335/449, Jones total:  262/325/442

Diaz v. left:  296/333/479.  Diaz v. right:  247/308/371, Diaz total:  276/323/435

Jones/Diaz total (since they kinda will be used as one player):  267/324/440

Snyder:  212/329/371

Cedeno:  247/291/365

 

If anyone has any interest, I'll share my data/projections for Ks,BBs,2Bs,3Bs etc.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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