I tried my hand at some projections for the 2011 season. To this point, I have gotten through our probable starting 8 position players and have decided to post them to see what people think.
My methodology was to look at the player's past 3 seasons (using minor league numbers if necessary) and get the following rates per PA: Ks, BBs, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, HBP, SF, SH. Then I projected a number of PAs for 2011 and a 2011 BABIP based on the past three seasons. I adjusted the rates (albeit, amateurishly) for age (better if young, stagnant for 26-29 down if 30+), league and park effects. I then did some minor tweaks based on the eye test (VERY minor, like a hit here or there). With the data, I came up with BA/OBP/SLUG. I parsed out Jones and Diaz v rt and left. Here are my results, let me know what you think:
Jones v. left: 221/260/397. Jones v right: 268/335/449, Jones total: 262/325/442
Diaz v. left: 296/333/479. Diaz v. right: 247/308/371, Diaz total: 276/323/435
Jones/Diaz total (since they kinda will be used as one player): 267/324/440
If anyone has any interest, I'll share my data/projections for Ks,BBs,2Bs,3Bs etc.