Is SIERA better than other pitching metrics?
Baseball Prospectus came out with an interesting article today that provides evidence that SIERA is the best indicator for estimating a pitcher's performance. It's a good read and fairly easy to follow.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12793
This little section is of particular interest to me because it details just why the author believes SIERA is the best estimator:
My further research over the last year has helped me understand why. The following are the highlights of this research. The first one listed is the one that we knew already when we published SIERA last year, but it is not the primary reason at all.
- Ground balls matter more for pitchers who get more walks and fewer strikeouts because they allow more runners to reach first base.
- Ground-ball pitchers allow fewer hits and fewer extra-base hits on ground balls than non-ground-ball pitchers, and SIERA acknowledges this effect due to its negative coefficient on ground-ball rate squared.
- Pitchers with higher ground-ball rates (but not too high) allow the highest BABIPs and SIERA picks up on this reversing effect of ground balls on BABIP due to their correlation.
- Pitchers with higher strikeout rates allow lower BABIPs and lower HR/FB rates, and SIERA picks up on this correlation. This is why the coefficient on strikeout rate in SIERA is so negative--because pitchers with high strikeout rates not only prevent runs by getting outs, but because they also allow fewer hits on balls in play and fewer home runs on fly balls.
- Pitchers with higher strikeout rates get more ground balls in double-play situations.
- Pitchers with lower walk rates issue more of their walks strategically, and thus the average damage of a walk from a high walk pitcher is higher, another effect which SIERA picks up.
My educated guess is that reasons 2) and 4) are the primary reasons for SIERA's superior estimation skill. The stark difference between QERA’s RMSE and SIERA’s RMSE in last year’s testing was primarily due to the negative coefficient on ground-ball rate squared in SIERA. When we ran our initial tests on SIERA, the inclusion of a variable for the square of ground-ball rate often did the most to improve estimation. Further, even though pitchers do have some control over BABIP, the amount that they do control is very similar to the amount that SIERA credits them with through BABIP’s correlation with strikeouts and ground-ball rates.
I know there has been a lot of discussion about advanced pitching metrics on this site so I thought this article was relevant. I know personally I have been a proponent of xFIP though SIERA does seem to be better. It is good to know though that xFIP has outperformed tERA and FIP for the most part. So now that we all have to acknowledge that there is yet another advanced metric to be aware of let's take a look at 2010 performance for some player's of interest:
|
Player |
SIERA |
|
3.87 |
|
|
4.53 |
|
|
4.58 |
|
|
4.27 |
|
|
4.68 |
|
|
4.58 |
That's a little more palatable than looking at just ERA however we all know our defense has not improved much so I wouldn't surprised to see the ERA's for Ohlendorf and Maholm to be a half to a full run higher than the listed SIERA. Also, note the ERA for Zach Duke. I put him on there as well because this stat basically awards a ground ball pitcher for throwing groundballs. It was interesting to see that Duke and Maholm had the same SIERA in 2010. Anyway, I have no real conclusion here I just wanted to post as some food for thought. Enjoy.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Comments
It's important to note
that none of these predictors do terribly well. None of the correlations with next year’s park-adjusted ERA are over 0.4. If you want to predict what a pitcher’s ERA will be next year, good luck with that. The correlation for SIERA is only 0.398, which is better than xFIP or FIP, but not impressive.
Viva Clemente!
I suppose...
that’s why they keep working on them. Each year, each stat, they get a little bit closer. I think it’s good to stay on top of these things as they all represent upgrades over ERA. SIERA has been the boldest attempt yet IMO but as you point out, there is still much room for improvement. I think the next big jump will come when we can start efficiently tracking batted ball speeds.
Also, how do our guys’ SIERAs stack up league-wide, out of 147 pitchers with 100+ IP?
McDonald: on pace for 55
Correia: 83
Karstens: 108
Olsen: on pace for 109
Duke: 112
Maholm: 113
Ohlendorf: 121
So McDonald was above average going by this metric, Correia was slightly below average, and the rest…you get the idea.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 27, 2011 2:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
4.21 vs. 4.60 in 2009 as well. Very interesting.
by Adam Reynolds on Jan 27, 2011 6:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"Each year, each stat, they get a little bit closer."
This is good to know.
"Pitchers with higher strikeout rates allow lower BABIPs and lower HR/FB rates,"
How many years of data is this tested against? And is there any sort of baseline performance? I can imagine how pitchers who don’t belong in the league and can’t strike anyone out would get hammered but why would big K guys necessarily allow less hits per contact?
You are correct...
My reply was to the last question Mr. E asked in his post in regards to hits per contact; I should have block quoted it. Being a proponent of xFIP the last couple of years I have seen some research showing that a pitcher’s HR/FB % will normalize to 10% over a large enough sample size. Given that I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the claim you have mentioned. It would seem that the SIERA creators have research showing that is not the case for all pitchers, more specifically strikeout pitchers. I don’t know where the cut off is because I haven’t seen the research but the article makes it pretty clear that the creators of SIERA believe that as a picther’s K’s increase the amount of HR/FB decreases. One thing that makes sense to me is that a high K pitcher gives up less hard contact but that cannot be proven until batted ball speeds are tracked. The other thing that kind of makes sense is that most K pitchers are FB pitchers. Given that this pitcher type’s skill is inducing fly balls with more regularity they are better at inducing ineffective flyballs than GB pitchers. Same theory would apply for GB pitchers. SIERA makes this claim too; GB pitchers give up less hits on GB’s than non-GB pitchers. So in the end, this is a very long way of me saying I don’t know.
WOW
didn’t realize that Duke and Maholm outpitched OLLY…
this is another scam to get a little fame. JMHO
Olly has been quite lucky 2 years in a row...
if you asked me. Inconsistent/complicated delivery, several different release points, fluctuating velocity, inconsistent slider, doesn’t get a lot of K’s, takes a lot of time on the mound which is very hard on IF defense, labors a lot throwing a lot of pitches most outings, and so on. It’s incredible that he has been able to get the ERA he’s had. Pretty impressive. Maybe there is something in that brain of his that helps him get out of jams.
Just maybe
the fact that he gives up less hits than innings…and while he doesn’t K a ton, he K’s more than Duke or Maholm (in particular after his delivery was altered)…and possibly he’s a smart pitcher. pitching around certain guys and setting up guys when he’s in a jam…bottom line is he’s not letting runs in…hell comparing his and Dukes BA against is like a contrast of Mccutchen vs Cedeno at the plate…maybe even more skewed.
there’s not a facet that Olly hasn’t outperformed those two w/ exception of W/L…and saying OLLY’s luckier than those 2?
I agree he’s too slow on that mound…makes for long games…he’s the one guy Kerrigan helped IMO.
I wasn't really comparing the three...
I’m not saying he was luckier than those two necessarrily but I am saying that watching him pitch the last two years I would have thought his ERA would be higher than it is. I’ve been pleasantly surprised with his results even though I dread watching him get those results. I’m always waiting for him to fall apart but he always seems to hold things together. I do think Ross was a different pitcher style wise last year in that he was a FB pitcher and Duke and Maholm were GB pitchers. That more than anything is the reason I think Ross was able to achieve better results. He is less dependent on the IF defense than Duke and Maholm. That and he does get more K’s than Duke and Maholm (as you pointed out)…that certainly helps him out. So I don’t think it’s a product of luck when comparing these three as much as I think that the way Ross pitched last year was better suited for the type of team we had. Even though Duke and Maholm have lost a little of their stuff I still believe they both could be more than serviceable on a team with a strong IF defense.
im with dan on this one
ive watched plenty of ohly’s games, and he HAS pitched better than maholm and definately better than sir duke
Again...
I wasn’t comparing the three but I will agree that Ross had better results. For the rest of my opinion read my reply above…though I’m sure you probably did and don’t agree with it. Seems we have had this discussion a couple of times before.

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