How much do we expect Jeff Francis to make?

by Justin Mos on Oct 13, 2011 11:07 PM EDT

So, I was looking at potential replacements for Paul Maholm that could possibly be on the market, and Jeff Francis popped out at me as a possible signing. Yes, he had injury ridden 08 and 09 campaigns, but he bounced back in 2010 to a 3.79 xFIP and 3.88 FIP season for 2.0 WAR and had a 4.29 xFIP season and 4.10 FIP season this year while throwing 183 innings and accumulating 2.6 WAR. Not to mention that he has shown significant upside before the injury with a 3.6 WAR season in 2006 and a 4.1 WAR season in 2007. He seems actually fairly comparable to Maholm with a slightly better past peak but with an injury history as well. My question is how much do you think he will make in 2012? He made $2 million plus performance bonuses this year, but I'm pretty sure he'll get a pay hike after pitching at an acceptable level in 2011.

Now I won't make a poll on this, because I expect opinions to wildly very, so state in the comments how much you think he will make in the off season, how many years he'll sign to, and if YOU believe the Pirates should attempt to sign him, and if so at what price.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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It will be interesting to see how much interest there is in him on the free agent market, but I’d think he’d be worth at least 1yr/$5mil or 2yr/$10 mil. His injury history should scare some teams away, and his 6 -16 record and 4.82 ERA mask the fact that he actually had a fairly decent year. Since he’s a lefty with a pulse, though, who knows. The Red Sox or Yankees might jump in and drive his price up.

The other thing to consider is that he only averaged 84.7 mph on his fastball last year. Obviously, he had some success with that (and he’s never been a hard thrower), but it’s a very short list of pitchers who can survive with that little velocity. If he loses any more, he’s in Jamie Moyer territory but without such a deadly changeup. Overall, I’d gladly take him at 1yr/$5mil if Maholm is dumped. More than that, though, and I’d be hesitant.

by fatmink on Oct 14, 2011 2:48 AM EDT reply actions

I have no idea how much he’ll make, but it will be less than $9.75 million and he’ll probably pitch almost as well as Maholm. I’d like to see the Pirates add someone like him and/or Chris Capuano.

by bolton on Oct 14, 2011 6:20 AM EDT reply actions

capuano had a very strong year. his Kper9, i believe, were the best of his career

he probably will demand more moolah than Francis, whom i also like. i would have said that both are similar to maholm except Capuano really started missing bats this year

by white angus on Oct 14, 2011 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, he gets far more swings-and-misses than Maholm. The long ball has been a problem, however.

I watched a lot of his starts because he is on my rotisserie team. He would often breeze through 3 pr 4 innings and then give up a blast or two in the middle innings. He rarely made it into the seventh. (I just looked up his stats and he allowed 9 home runs in 22 2/3 innings of work in the sixth).

by bolton on Oct 14, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

...

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 14, 2011 7:38 AM EDT reply actions

I like Buerhle most out of all the Maholm replacements

but Francis I’d take on a two year deal at 6m per

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Oct 14, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

Buerhle we have no shot

Francis, given his history with Rockies and is mostly obscure, we have a better chance of obtaining. An incentive-laden 1 yr contract with player option for 2013 would be what I’d offer

by BadAndy on Oct 14, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, Buehrle has said that he doesn’t want to pitch for anyone other than the White Sox or Cards (he’s from Missouri).

Put a Milo on ’im.

by Vlad on Oct 14, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

If it was even $5 million dollars, he LOOKS on the surface like a good replacement for Maholm.

I’m hoping if NH doesn’t exercise the option, Francis is one of the first people he considers as a replacement.

by Justin Mos on Oct 14, 2011 5:02 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t trust Francis’s shoulder at all, but he’s one of the less-bad alternatives that we might plausibly be able to sign.

by Vlad on Oct 14, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

Hey, despite his shoulder problems he's had, when he has pitched, he's managed some workhorse type seasons.

4 seasons with 180+ innings

by Justin Mos on Oct 14, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Maholm had shoulder issues this season, Francis was finally healthy

just an observation

by white angus on Oct 15, 2011 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Francis had surgery, and Maholm didn't.

They’re better at repairing torn labrums these days than they were even five years ago, but it’s still not a particularly great fix over the long term.

by Vlad on Oct 17, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

then why trust Maholm's and not Francis'?

by white angus on Oct 17, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Unlike Francis, Maholm didn’t have shoulder surgery, and didn’t have a torn labrum. He had minor soreness, which went away with rest, and he got a clean bill of health from the world expert in pitchers’ shoulders.

To the best of my knowledge, the only baseball-related surgery Maholm has ever had was for the orbital bone he broke when he got hit in the face by a line drive in the minors.

by Vlad on Oct 17, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

i have a feeling that if it were reversed, with Maholm having shoulder surgery and Francis needing only rest...

that you would still pick Paul.

but, hey, no worries

by white angus on Oct 17, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Vlad, if we could get Francis and Capuano for 12 million combined

Would you be willing to cut ties to Maholm? I mean, for 3 million dollars more than Maholm’s option you just got Correia out of the rotation without having a major downgrade at any spot in the rotation.

by Justin Mos on Oct 17, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Vlad, if we could get Francis and Capuano for 12 million combined

Would you be willing to cut ties to Maholm?

On a fannish level, probably, but only because Capuano went to my alma mater and I’d like to have the chance too cheer for one of those guys as a pro (Larry Broadway’s not a player, so he doesn’t count).

On an analytical level, they both scare me at least a moderate amount. I’m half-expecting Francis’s shoulder to come apart again, so I’ve got him mentally penciled in for about half a season. Capuano had crappy conventional numbers last year (82 ERA+, basically the same as Correia) but better defense-independent ones. On the other other hand, he also gave up a bunch of HR pitching in a park that suppresses power, so while I can’t really argue against him that strenuously on an analytical level, I’m left with a sense of unease that I really can’t shake. There’s certainly a scenario where we’d come out ahead if we signed both of them (a big IF, I think), but there’s also quite a lot of downside risk, and our rotation isn’t exactly short on that right now.

by Vlad on Oct 18, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions