Who Will Join Pirates' Third Base Shuffle Next Year?
Here were the Pirates at third base last year.
Pedro Alvarez: 225 at bats, .568 OPS
Josh Harrison, 168 at bats, .666 OPS
Brandon Wood, 148 at bats, .618 OPS
Chase D'Arnaud, 42 at bats, .554 OPS
That's remarkably consistent, and not in a good way. Harrison actually managed to be .9 wins above replacement for the season, thanks in part to what UZR believes was a good glove. I wasn't particularly convinced by his fielding, so it will be interesting to see what happens next year, if he manages to get enough at bats for the sample size to be relevant. Wood was narrowly above replacement level. Alvarez was well below it.
This cannot stand.
Wood may not be back next year. I doubt the Pirates will take him to arbitration, although I could see them bringing him back as a non-roster invitee. The other three will return in 2011, but the Pirates will probably want to add someone else as well. The problem the Pirates face with regard to improving the third-base situation is that they can't yet act like Alvarez has flamed out completely. He's still important to the future of the franchise, so the Pirates need to keep the door open for him. It's like if your girlfriend disappoints you and you take a break from the relationship, but you still love her. You might have a fling, but you probably shouldn't enter into a long-term, committed relationship with someone else unless you're thoroughly convinced that it's over. (That's not a great relationship metaphor, but what can I say? I'm a Rick Pitino fan.)
That takes the Pirates out of the running for someone like Aramis Ramirez. Not that they would ever be in the running for Ramirez, who's way out of their league, but since some Pirates fans still haven't accepted that free agents of Ramirez's caliber simply won't come to Pittsburgh without serious changes to the Pirates' reputation, I thought I'd make clear that there are also other reasons why it's pointless to fantasize about bringing him back. Alvarez makes a return just about impossible, even if it weren't already. And yeah, the Pirates could clear the way for a decent third baseman by moving Alvarez to first, where they have another (smaller) hole, but if that were going to happen, we probably would have heard about it already.
Here's the rest of the free agent market.
Wilson Betemit DET
Casey Blake LAD *
Eric Chavez NYY
Mark DeRosa SF
Greg Dobbs PHI
Edwin Encarnacion TOR *
Wes Helms FLA
Melvin Mora ARI
Miguel Tejada SF
Omar Vizquel CWS
That's a lot of yuck right there. Many of these guys aren't even worth considering. Encarnacion isn't a terrible option, but he hit a little bit last year and the Jays have a reasonable 2012 option on him. Dobbs is only about half a notch better than a replacement-level player and he shouldn't be getting nearly as many at-bats as he got this year, and he's also left-handed, meaning he couldn't save Alvarez against lefties. Blake might be a reasonable flier if the Pirates are convinced he can be healthy next season, but at 38, he's a risk. Also, if he's healthy, I can see some team overpaying for him.
Betemit hits pretty well but fields poorly. He can probably be had reasonably cheaply, however, and the Pirates should be able to lure him with the promise of a reasonable amount of playing time. He's a good match for the Pirates, in that he could expect to play a lot, but the Bucs would have no problem reducing his role if Alvarez started to hit. There's also the possibility that the Pirates could make a trade, of course. But my guess is that the Pirates will add a third baseman this winter, and if I have to guess who that will be, my guess would be Betemit.
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Sarcastic answer: A-Rod demands a trade to the Bucs so he can’t be the final out of his team’s postseason again, only to have us miraculously make the playoffs and be eliminated by him K’ing in 2011Alvarez-esque fashion.
Legitimate answer: I wouldn’t mind us signing on Encarnacion, Blake or Betemit, if the price is right. I also wouldn’t mind taking a flier on Chavez, though he’s never healthy so the price would have to be very right to make him worth it.
"But since some Pirates fans still haven't accepted that free agents of Ramirez's caliber simply won't come to Pittsburgh without serious changes to the Pirates' reputation"
Who are these people you speak of Charlie? The Pirate fans on here know for the most part that FA’s won’t come here until a credible team is built. I know i’m one of those people.
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by Bradley James McEachern on Oct 19, 2011 7:18 PM EDT reply actions
I guess I should admit that I don't actually "know" this
though I have heard it stated here on numerous occassions. Don’t you think that there are at least one or two who wouldn’t mind coming here if we made them the best financial offer?
Maybe someone has a girlfriend who lives in Pittsburgh, and he’d like to spend some time with her. He’d tell his wife, whom he’d stash somewhere else – “I’m sorry honey but, Pittsburgh was the only offer I got. Don’t worry the season will be over and I’ll be back before you know it.”
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 19, 2011 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
This does offer a potential market inefficiency
Do the other GMs act as procurers for their star FAs? Well, maybe NH could!
Although, based on his track record of judging ML-ready talent, I suspect NH would end up offering the last 39-y.o. in spandex still standing at Jack’s on a Monday night. “She used to be a cheerleader, so we figured it was a good opportunity to buy low.”
by JRoth95 on Oct 20, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Is that how Jose ended up
with his first wife? Sounds like the Yankees are already working that stratagy then.
“With Harrison I think best case you’re looking at a .300 average, an .800 OPS, and good defense from third base.”
Serioulsy
What would that line be like? 300/305/495? Doubt it very much
by Wizard of Woz on Oct 19, 2011 8:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
I “borrowed” that line from someone else as I also completely disagree. Not only do I not think Harrison will bat .300 I don’t think he plays good defense. Adn there’s no way he slugs enough to have an OPS of .800.
It was sheer lunacy to suggest it.
I think that you were right the first time
Josh was a 23-YO rookie in 2011 and showed clear improvement in the second half of the season with 12 XBHs in 111 ABs. If he learns to walk a bit he could easily push his OPS into the .800 neighborhood.
I am not sure what your problem is with his defense,but it looked pretty good to me in the second half (which was all I saw) and according to BR his D was fine at both 3rd and 2nd. Don’t you think that his D at least looked better than that of our other three internal candidates?
I agree he’ll probably never be another Bill Madlock though.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 19, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
As wizard pointed out, Harrison would have to have a slugging percentage near .500 to have an OPS of .800. Unless he becomes Ryan Braun or Chipper Jones over the winter, that ain’t happening.
His defense was okay. Not good, not bad.
I wrote if he learned to walk a bit
I agree if he can’t do that he’ll never sniff an OPS of .800.
Is it unusual for a player who shows poor strike zone judgement in his 23 YO season to show significant improvement in that area later in his career? I wouldn’t think so, but I don’t really know.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 19, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
He could post an OPS of .800 if....
He’s able to hit .300, which is unlikely.
He’s able to DRASTICALLY improve his walk rate, which is unlikely.
He’s able to become one of the leagues best sluggers, which is a near impossibility.
Sure, if ALL those things happen, he could do it. Wanna place on bet on it?
If he did all of those things his OPS would be pushing a 1.000
probably more. I would bet that he will post a ML OPS of .800 at least one season of his career if I knew you, but under the circumstances, I will pass.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 19, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on, lets make a friendly wager.
If I win, I get to sleep with you. If you win, you get to sleep with me.
Either way, Harrison is not posting an .800 OPS and one of us is getting an STD.
I would take the offer, but I already have one of those syphilis plush dolls and feel that’s a good enough substitute.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
by ryebr3ad on Oct 20, 2011 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
- Last season only 29 players in the NL of the 145 with enough qualified at bats posted an OPS of .800 or greaters. That’s the top 20% of hitters.
- Of those 29 players, the lowest slugging percentage was .456 by Andrew McCutchen.
- Of players with at least 190 at bats, 21% posted an OPS of .800 or greaters.
- Harrison ranked dead last in baseball last season with a 1.5% walk rate. It was the 11th worst of all time since 1980 for players with at least 190 at bats.
- Could Harrison improve that walk rate? Considering it was the worst in all of baseball, sure. There’s plenty of room for improvement.
On what planet is Josh Harrison ranked in the top 20% of hitters, slugging like Andrew McCutchen and improving from the worst in baseball to adequate with his walk rate? Suggesting he’ll post an OPS of .800 may be one of the dumbest things ever said on the internets.
by BillMadlock on Oct 20, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Who said anything about having enough qualifed at bats (whatever that is)
Maybe he’ll go 1 for 3 with a 2B some year.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I only mentioned “qualified” to put the level of production into perspective. I don’t care if Harrison has 500, 200, 100 or 1 at bat, he’s not posting an OPS of .800.
You're probably right but I don't understand why you went so
negative on Harrison in just a few hours.
Given that he was only 23 last season, he had a very encouraging year. He hit and fielded better than the three other guys who also played third and all of whom are older than he is.
In AAA last year he hit .310/.365/.460 in 254 PAs and though he started slowly with the Pirates he showed clear improvement the second half of the season during which he hit .270/.281/.414 in 118 PAs. Not great but the dude was only 23, so isn’t there good reason to believe that he will develop over the next couple of years? Kirby Puckett BTW, a guy with a similar build, in his rookie season as a 24-year old hit .296/.320/.336.
It seems clear to me that Harrison deserves significant playing time next season to see if we have anything there. But no no, people think we should look into signing Casey Blake, Edwin Encarnacion, Eric Chavez, etc. I am sure Dave Littlefield would approve.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t believe saying Harrison won’t post an OPS of .800 or laughing at comparisons to Hall of Fame players is being negative. It’s called being realistic.
I guess I would call
“Suggesting he’ll [Harrison] post an OPS of .800 may be one of the dumbest things ever said on the internets.” as being negative.
Qualifying as one of the dumbest things ever said on the internet is a pretty high bar you know.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Saying it’s “one of the dumbest things ever said on the internets” is a reflection of who said it, not Harrison. Harrison can be a productive and valuable player without reaching that mark. There are lots of players who have value who don’t post an OPS of .800. And it would be equally dumb to say the would do it.
FWIW
I think that Harrison’s upside is as a pretty solid bench option. We need some frontline talent for that to mean anything, but it would be nice to have guys on the bench who hit better than Crosby and who field better than Delwyn Young. It’s a shame that Jones will probably age out of productivity before we get good; a bench with Jones, Presley, Harrison, and d’Arnaud (say) is actually quite solid. Take away Jones and you’re short anything resembling a power bat, but I suppose Matt Stairs could be lured back.
The reason I have hope that he can be more than a solid bench player
is that he has that one glaring weakness – strike-zone judgement – and it seems to me that if he can improve upon that his BA and power numbers should improve a bit too, since he’ll then start seeing more hittable pitches. Something like .290/.325/.450 seems well within the realm of possibility even if his contact or power skills don’t actually improve much.
For sure if he were 26 or even 25 I’d agree that his ceiling was that of a bench player. I’m not sure how much historical success young free-swinging hitters have had in learning to walk a bit, so I could be way off base here.
I guess players that are seen as having limited upside who end up exceeding expectations have always been my favorite players. I suppose I could just be fooling myself with wildly implausible theories in the hopes that Harrison will develop into the type of player I always root especially hard for.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
his BA and power numbers should improve a bit too, since he’ll then start seeing more hittable pitches
BA I could see, but given his size, I’m not sure how much power potential he has.
All I am saying is that if he doesn't K
swinging at a pitch around the bill of his cap, he gets to see an extra pitch that could be one he can drive, so his slugging % should improve even if his raw power doesn’t.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It's Ironic That You'd Say Dave Littlefield Would Approve...
When our current GM has continued to sign the same type of players that you listed above, for four straight years now. By January it’s likely that we’ll be able to say five straight years.
Rather than blame the fans for suggesting Casey Blake types, blame the Neal Huntington for continuing to waste money and playing time on them.
Sorry, my above post was supposed to be in response to what WestCoastBuc said above about Dave Littlefield approving of signing washed up players.
I still haven’t figured out how to post properly here.
you did it right
If you hit the “up” button under your post, it shows that you were replying to WestCoastBuc. It’s just that all the previous replies, and replies to those replies, and… wound up between his post and yours.
Also, LAAAARRRRRSSSSS
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 21, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever
My point was that IMO Harrison deserves playing time next season to help determine if he has value going forward. I guess we will find out NH’s views on the topic as the off season progresses.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not fair to blame a 5’7" guy for swinging at pitches over his head.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Hopefully no one joins the shuffle.
2-3 years too early to give up on Pedro.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I wouldn’t want the Pirates to give up on Pedro, but it’s wise to have a better insurance policy than Harrison or Wood. Betemit is probably the best option of the guys listed above. I recently suggested a trade for Blake Dewitt, and I’m sure there are other players available who can top a .700 OPS.
Besides injury, what do we need an insurance policy for?
I’m completely fine with having Harrison back up.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I guess you like Harrison more than I. As for insurance, I’d like someone to replace Pedro if he’s hitting .180 with 5 homers and 82 strikeouts in his first 250 at-bats.
The Pedro part is where we differ.
I don’t think Harrison is all that great, but I don’t think it matters much. I’d continue to play Pedro even with those stats, we have to see if he can work out his kinks or not and we might as well do it during 2012 which doesn’t matter at the MLB level as opposed to 2013/2014/whatever.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
But two years too late in giving up on him as a 3B.
by Vlad on Oct 20, 2011 7:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would rather have him at 1B as well.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I disagree with no one joining the shuffle.
Unless your take is that Harrison can handle the duty if Alvarez bombs again in 2012.
We need a viable option in the case that Alvarez does not produce in 2012 — preferably a 1B/3B back-up type bench player.
This FO is going to give Alvarez every opportunity to stick at 3B…because that’s what they drafted him as. I’m in the same boat as Vlad — I agree to keep giving him chances to play every day…but at 1B (and I don’t buy the ‘but you’re wasting his arm!’ argument — he’ll turn 3-6-3 DPs nicely, and work well as a relay from CF and LF with his arm).
by insane_sanity on Oct 20, 2011 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
See above response to Vlad.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
gotcha
I took the “too late to give up on Pedro” meaning “at 3B”.
My bad, thanks for the clarification.
by insane_sanity on Oct 21, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever the question is, the FA market isn’t the answer.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Except if we are looking at picking up MRs on the cheap and flipping them at the deadline.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I noticed the Yankees decline Damaso Marte’s option. He’d strictly have to be an NRI.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Hey whatever works.
All we need is 40 good innings from somebody by midseason and one GM that thinks trading for MRs is still a good idea.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Oct 19, 2011 8:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’d do that in a heartbeat. While they’re at it, bring in Juan Cruz to be this year’s Veras.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 20, 2011 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions
We haven't gone down this route in awhile, so...
Neil Walker to 3rd?
May be easier internally or externally to find a 2B..
I'm not really a fan of moving a guy who finally seems to be getting comfortable at his position, in order to help out another guy who's struggling.
I’d be okay with it for a very short period of time, but I think that Pedro will be given a good amount of time at the beginning of the season to work out his problems.
So, do you really want to mess with Walker’s preparation for a season by moving him around.
If you’re going to kind of mess around moving a player like that, I’d rather see the Pirates hold to Steve Pearce and make him exclusively a 3B until Pedro is recovered from whatever has gone wrong with him.
really? steve pearce at third (or anywhere)? and this is a good idea why? the team wouldn’t do any worse if they played hurdle there.
by dirkcalloway on Oct 20, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
OR
Maybe we can target Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox? Just throwing prayers out there!
Eh. Viciedo will get a starting spot next season for the Sox, I'd imagine.
He’s almost certainly off the table.
I wouldn’t mind looking into Jason Donald, if the Indians have soured on him. He doesn’t really have a spot on their team, with Kipnis at second and Chisenhall at third.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
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Move Walker to 3rd
the Pirates could clear the way for a decent third baseman by moving Alvarez to first
Began writing this at same time as jlk…great minds think alike!
The only reason I can think of why moving Walker to 3rd hasn’t been discussed much is that folks don’t think his power fits a corner infielder role. But compared to Betemit, Walker is a slugger. WRT defense, all of the comments I’ve seen about Walker’s 3rd base glove have been positive. This move gets him off 2nd, where his range is limited.
Moving Walker to 3rd opens up 2nd for Harrison and/or Chase, whose #s project better at 2nd anyway. Another move I’d like to see is to crosstrain Hernandez and/or Marte for 2nd base now and move them back to OF down the road (e.g., like Alfonso Soriano). This would help resolve the pending OF logjam issue, give us more speed from the IF, and give us enough backup at each position to save a roster spot.
The one downside of this approach is that moving multiple IF spots at once could downgrade the IF defense.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 19, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions
Oh my gosh, that's brilliant!!!
What this team needs is guys playing out of position!!!
Have a guy who’s struggling with the bat, make him learn a new position.
Have a former catcher that’s finally starting to settle in at 2nd base, move him.
While we’re at it, let’s move GFJ to short (imagine getting that kind of power out of a shortstop.)
I’m thinking Brad Lincoln in RF. Gotta get that bat into the line-up more often.
The one downside of this approach is that moving multiple IF spots at once could downgrade the IF defense.
You really think that this is the ONLYdownside??
more or less i think your being overly critical. the dude was just throwing out an idea (while i more so agree with you impliedi) but kinda snarky.
also nfw im sure would do just fine moving over to 3b. and actually, sarcasm aside, having lincolns bat in the lineup more often may potentially be a good thing seeing how bad our bench generally is lol
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Sorry, but I just hate it when people want to move guys all around the diamond.
Regardless of how bad the 3B situation may get, I don’t ever like the idea of moving a young player into a relatively new position, only to throw him back across the diamond when Pedro gets right.
And I certainly hate the idea of moving Pedro when he’s already struggling with the bat.
Some people seem to think the answer is always moving guys to new positions. That thinking always infuriates me. You don’t move your better players around when others are failing, you go fill those holes and leave the good players alone.
Or further: I think moving guys like that makes Walker worse and it makes Alvarez worse.
I don’t see how that helps the situation.
Pedro is only going to play if he hits. What is the point in having him learn a new position? If he gets the bat going and gets a couple of good years under his belt, then you move him (if you want to), but I can’t imagine that moving to 1B is going to help his swing any.
Maybe Pedro's crappy 3B defense
is on his mind when he goes to the plate.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 19, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Or do you think that he'll just instantly play stellar defense at 1B, thus allowing him to concentrate on the bat?
I actually don't think learning 1B is that easy
But there are plenty of posters on this site who think that it can be done in a couple of weeks. Pedro is never going to be a stellar 3B.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 20, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that a lot of people seem to think it's easy to just pick up 1B.
I would imagine for a lot of vets, it’s probably not too hard. And for some guys, it might not be hard to pick up.
And Pedro may end up there anyway, I’m not arguing that.
I’m arguing that moving a weak link around isn’t necessarily going to solve his problems.
Let’s face it, it’s very simple: Pedro hits. Pedro plays. Pedro doesn’t hit, Pedro doesn’t play.
Once/if that bat gets right, then I have no problem moving him around. The kid is still only 24-years-old. Still plenty of time to move him later, if that is the best position for him.
How is Walker moving into a "relatively" new position?
From 2007-09, he played EVERY GAME in the minors at 3B. I thought the rationale for moving him to 2nd was the Iwamura meltdown + being blocked by Pedro. Now, if you are upset at my suggestion for moving Marte and Hernandez to 2nd, that is understandable. In general, I don’t get your touchiness about players manning multiple positions. The more athletic someone is, the more positions they should be capable of playing. It gives a manager more options. Other teams have converted pitchers to CFers, OFers to IFers, etc.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 19, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the rationale for moving him to 2nd was the Iwamura meltdown + being blocked by Pedro
I think the rationale for moving Walker was because he wasn’t doing much with the bat in the minors and he was willing to do anything possible to try and get himself onto the major league roster.
I can’t for the life of me understand taking a guy who has worked his butt off trying to learn a new position at the major league level, is finally starting to show some comfort in what he’s doing, is your starting 2B for the foreseeable future and moving him because your 3B is having problems.
I also, for the life of me, can’t understand moving a guy, who’s almost complete value to the team would be his hitting, into a brand new position, when he can’t hit when he’s playing the position he’s most comfortable.
It just doesn’t add up. You want to leave your good players alone. Would you suggest moving Andrew McCutchen to 1B? No, why?? Is it because he can’t do it? Of course not. It’s because you don’t want to mess with one of your better players and take him out of his comfort level. That’s how I feel about Walker.
And Alvarez. Moving him to 1B (at this point in time) solves zero problems.
So, basically, you’ve made 3B worse, you’ve made 2B worse and you’ve made 1B, worse. I guess the Pirates can make up for all of this messing around by bringing in an All-Star SS.
by impliedi on Oct 19, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
“It just doesn’t add up. You want to leave your good players alone. Would you suggest moving Andrew McCutchen to 1B? No, why?? Is it because he can’t do it? Of course not. It’s because you don’t want to mess with one of your better players and take him out of his comfort level. That’s how I feel about Walker.”
No. You wouldn’t do it because as of now he provides the most value to your team in CF. The EXACT reason to move Pedro and Walker.
Actually, McCutchen would probably have the most value to the Pirates as a SS, since they could fill 3 OF spots
and you’d be hard pressed to get that kind of production out of your average SS.
Even if he could field at SS...
based on his throwing from the outfield, we’d probably need a 12 foot tall first baseman.
by Thunder on Oct 20, 2011 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What is your problem?
Did your little league coach make you go play RF?
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 19, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Other than the OF (which is crazy)
“What this team needs is guys playing out of position!!!” is EXACTLY what we already have with Pedro or Harrison at 3B. Walker too
Pedro has played exclusively at 3B his entire professional career.
Harrison also played more games at 3B than any other position in the minors.
Neil Walker has played exactly 1 inning at a position other than 2B since he came back up to the Pirates as the starting 2B in 2010 (and he didn’t have any balls hit to him in that one inning).
How are these guys playing out of position?
Because they suck at them? So you put them in the position that fits their abilities best.
Harrison rushes and is too erratic at 3B. At 2nd he will have more time and his averageish arm will play better. Walker has below average range for 2B and an adequate arm for 3B. His hands are pretty good at either. Pedro is just poor all around so you put him where he can do the least damage.
for the record:
both Walker and Alvarez showed improvement defensively in 2011.
theres no reason to think that they wont continue this improvement.
both Walker and Alvarez showed improvement defensively in 2011.
Disagree, as far as Pedro is concerned.
really?
the metrics UZR and dWar both say he did. (not that im believing them)
by white angus on Oct 20, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
and before anyone chimes in...
im still not a fan of the defensive metrics. but since most everyone else on here believes in them, i figured i would check out the numbers myself.
both Alvarez, and especially Walker, improved defensively in 2011.
yes, Walker’s range isnt too good.
no, Pedro isnt a limber gazelle.
but according to those metrics, and even your own nekkid eye, both guys improved.
are they good defenders? not yet. and no one said they were.
i said they IMPROVED.
by white angus on Oct 20, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, I think you are reading it incorrectly
For talent evaluations, you should take tree years. For a record of what happened we can look at one year. You can say that Pedro performed better at third this year, but that does not mean that his actual talent improved, just that, in the chances he received, he performed better. Just like when a guy comes out of the blocks in a season and hits a ton of HR in the first month. The HR totals ARE useful for describing what happened during that month, but have little predictive value in judging the true talent of the player going forward, when put against a larger sample size. Does that make sense?
by Wizard of Woz on Oct 20, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
the statement was that he improved.
that is all that was said, and even with the metrics is was validated.
by white angus on Oct 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
No, the metrics said he performed better
there is a subtle, but important difference.
by Wizard of Woz on Oct 20, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Also funny that you go to Sabre stats
when “your” stat FLD% says he got worse.
by Wizard of Woz on Oct 20, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
the metrics UZR and dWar both say he did. (not that im believing them)
Remember the many, many times you’ve been told before that you need something like 1,500+ defensive innings (and preferably more) before UZR is particularly meaningful?
Pretend that this is another of those times, because I don’t feel like writing the whole thing out again.
by Vlad on Oct 20, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
once again, i said IMPROVED.
i didnt say he was a future gold glover. YOUR metrics said he played better this season than last.
it doesnt matter if you need 1500 innings or not. either you got better or you didnt.
your distaste for pedro at 3B is understandable, but your denial that he played better there even though the metrics that you love saying he did, says to me that you had your mind made up about him long ago.
by white angus on Oct 20, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
YOUR metrics said he played better this season than last.
My metric says that the metric isn’t reliable until a sufficient sample size has been reached. Since it hasn’t, the numbers from the metric don’t mean anything.
If, after a sufficiently large sample, the metric shows defensive improvement, then that’ll be good evidence, and I’ll probably change my opinion. But until that time, it’s functionally meaningless.
your distaste for pedro at 3B is understandable, but your denial that he played better there even though the metrics that you love saying he did, says to me that you had your mind made up about him long ago.
I did have my mind made up about him long ago – and I haven’t been given any valid reason to change it.
so not enough improvement will be achieved for him to stay at 3B?
never ever??
Given his thick lower body, I think he’s likely to become a worse defender as he ages, rather than a better one. His mobility is already questionable.
[Note: I’m not saying that he’s fat. “Fat” and “thick” are two different things.]
i totally dig what your saying
but its still too early to say that he wont lean down. he probably wont, but never say never
I don’t think Vlad is denying that Pedro was better (although maybe I’m wrong here). I think he’s denying that we can establish it.
Personally, I think there’s enough evidence to make it more likely than not that he improved. There’s UZR, +/-, and several other defensive metrics that I don’t really understand and can’t vouch for, all of which say pretty much the same thing. Plus, he just looked better to me, and a lot of people seemed to share that view. None of this is conclusive and all of it has sample size problems, but everything tends to corroborate everything else.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
I don’t think Vlad is denying that Pedro was better (although maybe I’m wrong here).
Personally, I don’t think he’s any better, though I can’t demonstrate it with any degree of rigor and I wouldn’t begrudge someone for coming to a different conclusion.
Yes and no. Walker is fine at 2B but he’d be better and it would fit the team better if he were at 3B. Pedro played better for that SSS of 6 weeks or whatever it was before he got hurt. When he came back he was possibly worse than 2010.
And they are getting older, Pedro has one more injury on his body, he’s only going to deteriorate from here. Ronny can help Neil get that double play rating up but other than that he’s at his potential as a 2B.
"potential"
Some on the board thought he’d already pretty much reached his defensive potential at 2B in 2010. Now I’m pretty sure that everyone agrees that he was (at least somewhat) better in 2011. I’m not saying he can improve forever, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he got still a bit better.
He already makes very few errors and he will never have good range at second. I don’t see a place to improve other than DPs. Any improvement in the first 2 categories we probably won’t be able to notice.
Fair enough
Theoretically he could improve his effective range by reading pitches better, but I have no idea how realistic that is. But your point is very well taken.
My personal take is that, at least for the next 3+ seasons, he figures to be a guy who’s league average or below with the glove, league average or above with the bat, such that his value will fluctuate from ~2 WAR to ~4+, maybe 5 if everything comes together one year.
It’ll be interesting to see how his approach at the plate develops. He’s not young in MLB terms, but he’s still under 260 ML games. If he can get a bit smarter at the plate before physical decline kicks in, he could spend more time near his ceiling.
I just don't see why the need to mess with Walker, who's doing perfectly fine where he is,
because Pedro can’t hit. I’d rather solve the problem at 3B, then totally throw the infield around to try and band-aid the situation.
“Have a guy who’s struggling with the bat, make him learn a new position.”
I never understood these types of arguments either. Baseball practice already includes offense and defense. It’s not like it’s adding extra work for the player.
Are you seriously saying that Pedro could just start taking the fielding drills at 1B, instead of 3B, and he'd be okay?
I imagine he’d be taking extra reps every chance he could (when he’s not in the cage) to try and feel comfortable there.
He should be playing winter ball and learning 1B
And he actually may be getting private instruction there for all we know. He could have learned to play 1B, while not taking any swings the entire off-season. If he isn’t, that is on him and the Pirates for not taking advantage of the opportunity. There is no reason an athlete shouldn’t have competency at more than 1 position in any case. GFJ (1B-RF) and Pearce (1B-3B) are good examples. Wood can play any position in the infield. Injuries happen. Double switches happen. Managers need their options, and a player only capable of playing 1 position is a liability.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 20, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with all of what you just wrote...and I certainly won't argue that Pedro being able to play more than one position is a good thing, eventually.
But his value is his bat. I imagine his number one priority is (and should be) his bat.
If he ends up a star, it will be because of his bat. If he plays at all, it will be because of his bat.
Moving him around doesn’t improve his bat (maybe, just maybe as a DH), and it just might hurt it more. That’s a chance I certainly wouldn’t want to see the Pirates make.
If the team has no intention to ever more him to 1B (and they’ve shown no indication they do) then he should not be doing any of this since he’s still weak at 3B. He should be mastering the position he plays and still isn’t good at yet. Working on throwing accuracy, side to side quickness, hand-eye coordination and so on.
I got it...
Pick up Don Kelly. He’s the only active major leaguer to play all nine positions.
Put on your dancin' shoes.
Well I don't run pro practices
but I imagine they are pretty structured so I’m not sure where this free time to take extra reps is coming from.
Right now, we have a guy playing out of position: Pedro at third base. At some point, that’s going to need to be addressed.
by Vlad on Oct 20, 2011 7:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You have absolutely no way of knowing that.
Perhaps Pedro would be 1,000x worse at 1B (think Ryan Doumit, but on a much larger scale) . There is just as much of a chance that 3B is his best position on the field, as it is 1B. So to say that he is “out of position” is a very presumptive remark to make.
Plus if Pedro is such a hindrance at 3B, why didn't Vanderbilt move him to 3B?
Why didn’t the Pirates move him when he was in the minors?
Dunno.
Pedro has said that he wants to stay at 3B… maybe Corbin promised him that he could stay at the position as a sweetener during the recruiting process?
There’s a long trail of scouts speculating that Pedro would need to move to 1B, going back to his high school days, so it’s not like my position on the issue is anything new or surprising.
Won't disagree with you that many others THINK that Pedro is best suited at 1B.
And he may very well be, all I’m saying is that he could also be a complete disaster at 1B, and though his playing at 3B is not all that great, it might be the position where he plays the best.
It’s all hypothetical.
And as you, I, and many others have stated, finding a position for him won’t be at all necessary if he doesn’t find a way to hit!
You have absolutely no way of knowing that.
It’s my subjective opinion, based on direct observation, going back to his college days. As with any subjective opinion, there’s a chance that I might be wrong – but I don’t think that I am.
and your opinion I totally respect, and you might be right.
and you used your own “direct observation” too… UZR be damned!!!!
bwahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Without having seen Pedro actually play at another position, I don't know how you, or any of us, can just assume that he'd be better suited at another position.
I know this is just a semantics argument. All I saying is that say, for simplicity’s sake defense is on a scale of 1-100. Average player is a 50, Excellent players are an 80. Best ever at the position are 100. Say Pedro, as a 3B is a 30. Perhaps are a 1B, he’s a 5. At any other position on the field, he’s a 2. 3B could very well be the position that he plays the best, even if he’s not very good at it, he could be LESS WORSE there, than at any other position.
Without having seen Pedro actually play at another position, I don’t know how you, or any of us, can just assume that he’d be better suited at another position.
Subjectively, it seems like two of his bigger problem areas as a defender are chasing down bunts/squibs and making accurate throws. Both of those would be much less important if he played 1B. Similarly, making reactive lateral snags seems like his area of greatest strength, which suggests that his hands would be at least adequate for the position.
No way to know for sure until he actually tries it, though.
If Pedro doesn’t figure out how to stop swinging at pitches that are out of the strike zone and stop trying to pull everything, it really won’t matter if he’s the greatest (or worst) defensive third baseman or first baseman in the history of the game.
by Tim Wiliams on Oct 21, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
a crappy 3B has way more negative value than a crappy 1B. You keep dancing around this.
We know Pedro has the ability to catch a ball thrown to him and we know he has at least average 1B range. That’s basically all he needs to be adequate. And as you’ve pointed out, if he doesn’t hit he’s not going to be playing anywhere.
since some Pirates fans still haven’t accepted that free agents of Ramirez’s caliber simply won’t come to Pittsburgh without serious changes to the Pirates’ reputation
IIRC, there is an option on Ramirez, and if he gets traded to the Bucs, he doesnt have much of a choice there.
also
Alvarez isnt the best reason to not sign Ramirez. Assuming something like a 1 year deal, it opens up somebody to be traded if they are both performing well.
It's pretty tough to play both at the same time at the same position frequently enough to get them ABs to showcase to other teams.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Pedro has already hit decently at AAA before in his career, he needs to work on MLB level pitching not AAA level pitching.
There is a credible argument to be made for sending him to AAA to start the season. I believe there is a more credible argument to be made to have him start the season at MLB, at some point we need to figure out if he can hit MLB pitching and why not during a season that doesn’t matter as opposed to one that does?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I believe there is a more credible argument to be made to have him start the season at MLB
That is your opinion, of course. He’s hit decently in MLB too— if only that was all that mattered.
at some point we need to figure out if he can hit MLB pitching and why not during a season that doesn’t matter as opposed to one that does?
Do you really think he’s gonna be a star? If yes, then shouldn’t you use as less as possible of his ML service time in years that don’t matter? Esp when there’s clearly an argument to be made for him starting in AAA.
by BurgherKing on Oct 19, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea if he is going to be an MLB guy, thats what playing him would help us find out.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Oct 19, 2011 10:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Got some bad news for you:
If Pedro doesn’t start hitting MLB pitching, there aren’t going to be any seasons that matter for a long time.
We may not have seasons that matter at the MLB level for a long time, but it wouldn't be due to Pedro.
I’d be much more concerned about pitching not panning out than Pedro.
Say you expected him to be a 4 WAR guy, but instead we have to settle for a 1 WAR guy if Pedro busts. Those 3 wins are from one position aren’t going to make or break the team, especially relative to how many WAR we give up by not having effective starters.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I think expectations were higher than that
At least wrt peak production. I mean, maybe you figure 4 WAR/year for 6.5 years of control, but years 4-5-6 were supposed to look a lot more like 4.5-6 wins/year. Without a lot of other impact position players in the system, those marginal losses are extremely hard to make up for.
All I’m saying is that a PA who never produces above 4.0 WAR is already a disappointment. If things go well on the pitching side, it wouldn’t matter much. But things would have to be pretty awesome on the pitching side (as in, Taillon and Cole both making it, with immediate success) for us to withstand ±1 WAR from 3B.
"IIRC, there is an option on Ramirez,"
I believe he’s a 5/10 guy, no?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 19, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
if that's the case
that certainly puts a wrinkle in my theory
by BurgherKing on Oct 19, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Depending on price I would be more than happy
to give Eric Chavez a chance to play. I know we don’t want to sign washed up vets and what not but i mean, for 40 or so starts of which, worst case scenario, he does poorly and harrison or someone takes over anyone i would try and see how much power we can still squeeze out of him.
I remember him as a fairly strong hitter in oakland, like i said if the price is right, but hell it could be worth a shot no?
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
he played 305 innings at 3b last year and according to baseball reference, made no errors, now im noticing his bat has slowly disappeared but he can still field apparently
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
not a chance Chavez comes to the Burgh
he went to NY to get a title. he either becomes a backup on a winning team or he retires.
makes sense
just throwing it out there that he wouldn’t be that bad of a pickup if it doesnt cost us the bank
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
washed up vets
Wouldn’t mind 1 roster spot to a vet at C, 3B, 1B, or OF who can PH with some power. That was another hole last year.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Oct 19, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
What About Andy LaRoche?
When the Pirates traded for him a few years back, everyone on this blog thought he was the “second coming”.
I wouldn’t say everybody. And LaRoche is so wonderful at 3B that he started 17 games (of 40 he played) there for Oakland, and none (in 54 games) at Sacramento.
I guess that the Pirates could sign Blake (LaRoche’s successor at LA). Neal figures that he’s gotta be better than LaRoche, even though he’s 38, and missed 3 batches of significant time this season with back problems.
I might try to get Skip Schumaker from the Cardinals. It looks like they’re going to pick Punto/Theriot over him, and he’s a free agent after next year. Guy’s not great, but he could probably play every spot on the diamond except pitcher and catcher, and do it with some competency. He’s a pretty average hitter, and I can’t imagine he’d be expensive.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Actually
he pitched this season too and even had 18Ks/9. Otherwise, I don’t think he has ever played anywere except 2B and OF during his career though.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
not sold on Schumaker
Seems like he plays both infield and outfield, but not well (all the metrics hate him at 2B), and his bat has gone from a little above average to a decent tick below average. Given that skill set, I’d almost rather see if Josh Harrison can learn to take a walk. Not even mentioning that he wouldn’t come free.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 20, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to think that, if LaRussa doesn’t have much use for a guy, he probably sucks. I hate saying that because I don’t much like the guy, but LaRussa is sort of a variation on John Schuerholz. The Braves under Schuerholz had a knack for knowing which prospects to trade and which to keep. LaRussa has a knack for knowing when a player is cooked (Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, and others) and he doesn’t hesitate to get rid of a guy at that point.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
perhaps
but Larussa has benefited from having star players at nearly every stop of his managerial career… this makes it easy to get rid of players like Ludwick, Duncan, etc when the stars are still producing.
give him OUR roster and lets see him work magic with that!
the Schumaker/Adam Kennedy thing didn't work out too well for T La Russ
Kennedy turned out to be a moderately useful player the year after the Cards dumped him, and I think LaRussa was directly responsible for the whole “Schumaker can play second base” fiasco. I have to figure that the Cards would have been better with Kennedy at second, Schumaker in the outfield, and Rasmus in center instead of letting Ankiel put up 0.1 WAR for the season.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 20, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say something similar about dumping Brendan Ryan and getting Ryan Theriot to play SS
Of course this is sheer La Russa haterade, because I agree that Schumaker isn’t a good bet.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 20, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
cept for Rasmus. But I guess everyone whiffs once in a while. The Braves did the same with Jermaine Dye.
jury's still out on Rasmus, I'd say
I mean, I think it was a dumb decision that’s going to bite the Cardinals, but we can’t say it has yet. (In his time with the Jays, which is too small a time to consider, Rasmus put up really bad numbers. Worse than 2011 Pedro.)
Anyway, Rasmus (and Brendan Ryan) probably don’t bear on the case of Schumaker; given the effort T La Russ made to clear second base for Schumaker, I doubt that he’s shipping him out just because he doesn’t like his face, as arguably happened with Rasmus and Ryan.
(Can you tell I don’t like La Russa? I’ve decided I have to root for the Rangers, no matter what other reservations I may have.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 20, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It is pretty doubtful that the Cards even make the playoffs this season
without the Rasmus trade. If they win the WS this season, it might be hard to call that trade a whiff for them.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 20, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
They could have traded someone less good for a couple bullpen pieces. I don’t believe the Nady trade was good for the Yankees just because they won a WS afterwards.
The Yankee deal was different
They probably would have won anyway, and they go to the playoffs almost every year, whereas this year could be the Cards last chance for awhile if Pujols walks.
Besides the two relievers the Rasmus trade brought back Edwin Jackson as well. I don’t think that they could have gotten all of that by giving up someone less good.
by WestCoastBuc on Oct 21, 2011 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, hes going to be available
hes a good glove to add to an established team. his poor bat would be way too noticable on our pirates.
For his career, he’s carrying a 95 OPS+. That’s only three points below what Tabata gave us last year.
No guarantee that he’d get back to that level, of course. But as contingency plans go, I don’t think he’d be a bad one.
i just think Kouz's talents would serve better on a team that technically doesnt need him.
for example; if the Sox lose Youkilis, Kouz could fill in. bat 8th or 9th. his decent defense wouldnt hinder the squad. sure, the Sox would miss Youk’s stick, but Kouz’ numbers as a pirates would stand out more simply because, as WTM says above, he blends right in with the bucs hitters.
Kouz to the Sox, Yanks, Phillies… he can be a quiet asset.
Kouz to the Bucs, Indians, Twins… whipping boy 2012.
by white angus on Oct 20, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
if the Sox lose Youkilis, Kouz could fill in. bat 8th or 9th.
If the Sox lose Youkilis, they’d probably just call up Will Middlebrooks.
"Encarnacion isn't a terrible option...."
no offense Charlie, but Encarnacion’s nickname is “E5” for a reason.
The Cincinnati 3B situation is a little muddled too...
Maybe the buccos can pry Juan Francisco loose for a pitcher? It would be like having 2 Pedro’s on the club… one of them is sure to pan out right??
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I’d put Mercer in the discussion. Long term I hope he’s our SS, but think Cedeno should be the starter next season. So Alvarez, Cedeno, and Walker are the starters with d’Arnaud, Harrison, and Mercer battling for the two positions to back them up. If all three earn a spot, then Cedeno may be a decent trade chip. (Mercer has been my favorite of the 3 even though he seems to be a step behind them in advancing levels.)
The Pearce train has left the station, but they used Hague at 3rd some and maybe he’s an option? In any case, I’d stay internal for 3B and focus on 1B and SP in the trade and FA market.
IIRC, the Pirates judged Hague's defense at 3B to be unsatisfactory
which is why he’s spent most of his time at first lately
Disappointed
I have to admit that a few years ago, if somebody would have asked me what position would be a major concern for the Pirates in 2012, I would not have said third base. If Pedro tanks, it’s a huge blow to this rebuild.
I know you all know that already, but man it just seems like even our, “sure things,” (like Pedro) just never work out.
I never expected anything from Andy Laroche. But I figured Pedro would at least develop into a reliable, competent major league ballplayer, even if he didn’t develop into a star. Now things aren’t looking very good. I’m not writing him off yet, but I’m a lot less certain that he’ll be successful after last year.
by Tim Wiliams on Oct 21, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Wilbur mentioned to me that there was someone posting as “Tim Wiliams” here. Just wanted to clarify that this is Tim from Pirates Prospects, and this is my screen name on SBN. Not sure if the “Tim Wiliams” above is just someone with the same name, but it’s not me.
by buccofans on Oct 21, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Sorry for the confusuion...
Timothy Wiliams is my actual name. Most people call me Tim, so I figured I’d use that as my name here.
If your not familiar with Tim (buccofans) Williams’ work it’s here:
http://www.piratesprospects.com/
It’s worth the trip.
by MDBuc on Oct 21, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the clarification.
Until I got down to the bottom here, I thought…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 21, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

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