ray (burlington, NJ): Keith-thanks for the chat. Is Robbie Grossman a top 100 prospect in 2012?
Keith Law (1:50 PM): Yes.
ESPN: Chat with Keith Law, 10/20/2011
7 months ago
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They really, really should trade an outfielder. Four of the five of McCutchen, Tabata, Presley, Grossman, and Marte are plenty sufficient.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
- I say this because it seems Grossman’s added a fair bit of value in the past few months.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 20, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
One
of those guys have had sustained success at the MLB. Maybe 12 or 18 months from now.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 20, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah this
Marte is one full level away from MLB, and Grossman 2 full levels. 12 months is probably the earliest to consider it.
(Of course, if someone is willing to give a king’s ransom for someone, I’d move them regardless of whether we had enough MLB-ready players or not)
It’s a position of organizational strength. Tabata’s a pretty sure thing to be no worse than an average player the next few years, and there’s no reason not to think at least one of Presley/Marte/Grossman is a good fit for the third spot. Even if they’re not, you can always put Jones’ mediocrity in RF.
I’m more concerned about the Pirates’ apparent willingness to go into next year with a possible black hole at third base and absolutely certain offensive black holes at SS and C. They don’t have depth in many spots, so it makes some sense to deal from strength.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 20, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
if Marte comes on strong in AAA, and Presley continues to surprise in Pitt....
then something has to give.
it could be a very interesting 2012
Maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there
But I think Tabata’s signing might work as something similar to the McLouth deal where he’s signed to a very team-friendly deal that might make him appealing to another team. I agree with you on this topic somewhat…as said by some above, I’d like to see everyone get a year further (and have no one bomb out completely) before I might do this though. Keep in mind with all this excitement about Marte and Grossman, neither one has one AB above AA. A little early to deal from what might be the only strength the organization has at the moment.
i think the FO is much much higher on Tabata than McLouth
even though MCL had the very good one season, they probably believe Tabata is well on his way to being the better player, and has only scratched the surface of his ability.
which i agree with.
I didn’t forget him; I just don’t factor him into any trade decisions yet. He’s at least three years away, probably more.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 20, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Naww
He’d have to get huge. He’s got above-average athleticism, but just an average-arm at best, so he might have to play in LF. That would be somewhat problematic in PNC.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 20, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
get huge?
wasnt derrek lee a two way star in high school? he was a 1Bman from the get-go… not counting the 3B experiment which obviously didnt go too well.
anyway, Lee was a better athlete. Todd Helton could move very well back in the day.
wasnt derrek lee a two way star in high school?
UNC offered him a basketball scholarship, but he turned it down to play baseball.
He’s probably the best basketball player to play for the Pirates since either Kenny Lofton (who went to a Final Four as a reserve with Arizona) or Chris Young (who was a starting center for Princeton).
dick groat?
Dave Ricketts?
At least I avoided starting this with “back in my day…”
also Johnny and Eddie O'Brien
Seattle Univ, I believe. But that was back in my day ; )
Lino Donoso
I'm
saying I’ve seen NOWHERE that has remotely suggested the possibility of him moving to 1B. It hasn’t even come up.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 21, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And so just think
how high one of their values will be in a year and a half…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 20, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Things I never lose sleep about
1. Whether my cat prefers Savory Salmon or Mixed Grill.
2. Whether drone strikes on Al Qaeda are a good idea.
3. Whether the Pirates have too much talent at one position.
4. Whether the Yankees are paying Jeter too much.
5. Whether I’ll miss Brian Wilson’s latest commercial.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Your cat mentioned something
about it having missed a nap over concern as to whether you preferred pizza or ribs…
Cats are people too, man.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 20, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
6. Whether my cat misses one of his 47 daily naps.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 20, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're missing the point, Wilbur.
I’m sure you DO worry about the Pirates having too little talent at one position. Or, more accurately, at every position in their organization except low-level starting pitching and the outfield. I’m just suggesting a way of fixing some other holes.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 20, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, I’m just kidding.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Wait, what?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 21, 2011 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Seeing as how the rescheduled apocalypse occurs today, it didn’t seem like the time to be taking things too seriously.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 21, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, I think he was already raptured
but the desiccated hull of his body was left behind. That’s one creepy-looking old creep.
heh
Being convinced you, and everyone on the planet, is going to die…3 or 4 times now…will do that to you!
Wait..I calculated that wrong…5 times. No wait…
by insane_sanity on Oct 21, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So, since I’m in Japan, does that mean the apocalypse happens to me 13 hours before you guys?
by thecheeseisblue on Oct 21, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, you're gone.
But wherever you’ve been raptured to obviously has internet.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
My wife lived 2 years in rural Japan
And she always says, “People think of Japan and think it’s all Sony, high tech, but once you get out of the big cities….” One of the schools where she taught (she was with JET 20 years ago) still had pit toilets, and she was paid in a giant envelope of cash (for all I know they still do that).
Pit toilets? Psh, the other day I used a urinal where you play various games with your pee.
by thecheeseisblue on Oct 21, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
correction
I believe that is not “internet”, but “The Internets”.
by insane_sanity on Oct 21, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Apologies for getting off subject
but I’m an ex-Apache electrician.
An old ARMY buddy told me that they’re going through a “reset” to allow the Apache to take control of drone aircraft…
So now you can not lose sleep over whether a drone aircraft spots a target, the Apache locks on to that target via the drone from MILES away, then the sends 16 hellfire missles at it…
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Wilson's beard is WEAK!
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Don't jump on me for this
But part of me thinks it’s a good time to trade Cutch. He’ll never extend with us, and he’d bring back a huge return, and as of right now he’s basically scheduled to leave when the pitching begins its peak.
I’m aware that there’s all sorts of problems with this, and you all know that I don’t like punting on seasons, but good grief, what kind of return wouldn’t he bring? The guy would provide something like 25 wins over 4 years at a huge discount over market rate. I’m thinking we could basically fill 2 positional holes for the long term.
Obviously the fan base would go apeshit, and I’d be unhappy to see him go myself. But when I think about the potential return, and the idea that the return would be in Pittsburgh through 2017….
Come on, dude...
It would have to be the haul of the century to even remotely think about doing that.
Obviously the fan base would go apeshit,
…to the tune of staying away in droves. Attendance would plummet. And the “trading away all their good players” meme (which we’re only now beginning to see in the rear-view mirror) would resurrect, and justifiably so.
I mean, I understand what you’re imagining, but… no.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 21, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
He’ll never extend with us, and he’d bring back a huge return
I’m not sure this is true. I mean, he should be worth like 4 top prospects/players AA or above from a team with a good farm system. Teams don’t give up that kind of stuff very easily. Essentially, I am not sure that there would be a big difference in what teams would give up for him this offseason and next offseason. If you were the one trading for him, you’d essentially be completely giving up the cream of your farm— it’s a big risk.
by BurgherKing on Oct 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Could be other big league talent with a lot of service time though right...
Bumgarner and Hector Sanchez
That will fill a pretty big void right? I’m not saying that I’d pull that trigger, but I’d look awefully long at that target!
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
yes
it could be, but essentially, its something that would have to make sense beyond the period Cutch would be here anyway, or fill more holes in terms of return.
by BurgherKing on Oct 21, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
That is a good point
There’s only so much that anyone is willing to trade, esp. for a guy who’s not e.g. Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
I wouldnt be set on trading him but I would absolutely field offers.
I agree with the idea of probably trading him eventually unless we get a team friendly extension in the next two years.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Oct 21, 2011 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I've said this a number of times
but I don’t really understand the belief that McCutchen will never extend with us. Yes he will cost a lot of money. Yes, the cost of a second contract (not just an extension of a year or two past arbitration) will be absurd and quite possibly more than this franchise could ever afford. However, I don’t understand why people assume McCutchen is absolutely, positively gone after 2015. An extension of a couple of years (keeping Cutch in Pittsburgh through 2017) seems plausible, albeit expensive, and I’ve yet to see anything conclusive that indicates something like this can’t or won’t happen.
Even if the Pirates did believe that McCutchen was completely unsignable, I can’t see a situation where they’d trade him now because there is no team in baseball that could afford to offer what the Pirates would ask for in return. Around the trade deadline, PiratesProspects wrote an article describing McCutchen’s trade value. When you consider his talent level, his production and his 4 remaining years of control, Cutch would be worth 5 top 100 prospects with 4 of those players in the top 50. In order for a team to risk this much talent they would have to be able to operate without any need for their prospects at all.
Essentially, this limits the options to calling the Yankees and asking for Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances and Romine (or Bichette if you could call him a PTBNL and wait until he had been in the organization for a year to “complete” the deal). People can, and I’m sure will, argue that this would be too much to ask for McCutchen, but if the Pirates took any less, then they would be trading their best asset for less than fair value. Because of his non-baseball value to the organization (marketing, fan relations, etc) they couldn’t afford to make the deal for anything less than an absurd price and there aren’t any teams out there that could realistically give up this much for one player…even one as good as Cutch.
by KentuckyPirate on Oct 21, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
as cheap beer pointed out above
the trade could also involve ML players, instead of being prospects only. I agree with your general idea though.
by BurgherKing on Oct 21, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
How about..
a boatload of prospects starting with Lars Anderson (not to drum up this shit again), Ranaudo, a couple more, AND Carl Crawford, with Boston obviously eating a big portion of that contract?
So… Lars, Ranaudo, another couple B prospects, and Carl Crawford for Cutch?
Would that get it done?
A name like McCutchen sure would sell some jerseys in Boston!
boatloads of prospects would get it done, in a general sense
i would hate to have another 6 prospects that need to be protected on the 40 man but are 2 years away from the bigs, unless they were elite. In any case, my point is you’d need a couple of absolutely elite prospects in there. I wouldn’t want Crawford much at all (though I could see involving a 3rd team to flip him to).
When I speak of ML players, I want guys that are young and in 0-3 service time years. (If you’re thinking teams aren’t going to be jumping to trade those guys, you’re probably right— that’s why this kind of trade rarely happens)
Wouldn't a trade involving ML players
leave us with the same problem of having this group leave before the young pitching arrives? Let’s say we struck a deal with San Fran that included Bumgarner. Well, if you assume that the Pirates can’t afford to extend elite young players like McCutchen, then they wouldn’t be able to extend Bumgarner either. He would also eat up a substantial chunk of the return in terms of prospects. Now you’re talking about losing Bumgarner a year after we would have lost McCutchen anyway. Since we’d maybe only get 2 prospects in this scenario instead of 5, you’d have to hope that both players hit (far from a sure then when you’re dealing with prospects) or else were looking at another example of the J-Bay trade where the top level prospect doesn’t pan out and our hopes are left hanging on a 25 year old relief pitcher in AA…
by KentuckyPirate on Oct 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoever has Bumgarner has control through 2016
Cole/Taillion would almost certainly be up by then… maybe Heredia/Allie too.
If you throw in Belt and Sanchez you potentially fill Ace, 1B, and C… You slide Presley to CF until Marte is ready, and keep GFJ in RF until Grossman is ready.
It’s a tough call but I think a pitching staff of Bum/Cole/Taillion is intriguing as hell.
I have to say that if in a bubble that trading McCutchen for Bum (and some) makes little sense, but considering it’s is the one spot we are overflowing in position talent, it at least has some grip to it.
Again not saying I’d do it, but it would take some SERIOUS thought.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
what about a trade with the Braves
they need a CF and when I go over there and ask them about it they say they would love to have McCutchen but who wouldn’t? They have some great young arms in the higher levels of the system such as Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino. They also have some solid position prospects too.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
what about a trade with the Braves
they need a CF
???
All-Star + Gold Glove Nate McLouth, dude – cheap at twice the price!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 21, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Braves/Giants make the most sense... TB is overflowing with arms too
I’d lean towards a player who has proven great at the ML level though, hence the Bumgarner talk… but the Braves are a good fit too imo.
TB just wouldn’t pull the trigger on guys with lots of service left.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
bethancourt – catcher
salcedo – ss/3b
lipka – of/ss
m. jones – ss/2b
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
not familiar with him. here is a list of some of their better guys, they have mycal jones as OF actually and Lipka at SS, though both have played time in the positions i listed.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
id also want a little bit better pitching in the deal, a lot of atlanta fans dont like Minor much, I think he’s good, but for Cutch we could get something better IMO
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
this is true, but just because he would be our Ace, doesnt mean we cant do better than him.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
wrong thread
i think you’re looking for the NH is as bad as DL thread, (can be found on the sidebar under “comparison” fanpost) lol
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
At the same time
If we didn’t trade McCutchen, then we’d have him until 2015, so my point is that you’re only gaining one additional year out of the main piece of the deal (Cutch/Bumgarner).
Let’s assume that the deal would, in fact, be Bum/Belt/Sanchez for Cutch. They wouldn’t be gaining much additional value out of Bumgarner because his service time is similar to Cutch so we would only have him for one extra year. As good as he is, pitchers are less valuable than position players because they only take the field every fifth day. This means they would be putting almost the entire value of the trade in Brandon Belt. If Belt does, in fact, turn out to be a middle of the lineup bat, then it’s probably a good trade but if he fails to live up to the hype at all then the Pirates lose this trade (assuming that Bumgarner doesn’t become Roy Halladay which is the only way a pitcher is as valuable as an elite CF).
I’ll admit that it would be interesting and if a couple things broke Pittsburgh’s way-Bum stays healthy, Belt becomes a beast and Marte’s 2012 plays out like Cutch’s 2009-this trade could be a big win for the Pirates. I would be pretty nervous, though, about gambling the most valuable asset the team has had in 2 decades on the production of one top-tier prospect (see Laroche, Andy).
In the interest of fairness, I will point out how nice 2013 could be with a lineup of:
Tabata-9
Marte-8 (coming off an .836 OPS as a rookie like Cutch)
Belt-3 (if he replicates his AAA production)
Alvarez-5 (assuming he rebounds)
Walker-4
Presley-7
Sanchez-2 (either one)
d’Arnaud-6 (it had to be somebody)
Bum, Cole, McDonald, Morton, Lincoln/Karstens-1
by KentuckyPirate on Oct 21, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
at the risk of taking this thread in the wrong direction
Bum/Belt/Sanchez for Cutch
I think I might do this trade in a heartbeat. (I don’t know much about Sanchez, but I’ll take my chances there…)
if i were the GIants, i would literally slam the phone down
no way they give up Bum/sanchez/belt for Cutch…
sanchez and belt, maybe. Bumgarner is a future ACE if he were with another team. it would have to be a straight up deal with Cutch to get him.
Giants also have Verdugo and Surkamp, 2 talented LHPs in wait.
i did mostly agree with the point in your post
but I will note that an extra year does have significant value, esp if you expect that the Pirates will be contending and Bumgarner’s value = Cutch’s value.
The problem is
that Bumgarners value is not equal to Cutch’s and it’s unlikely that Bumgarner will provide more total value for the Pirates in 5 years than Cutch would in 4. I’m not suggesting that WAR is the end-all, be-all statistic, but it’s about as close as you can get when comparing the relative value of a single pitcher with a single position player.
Cutch posted a 5.5 WAR (B-R) this season despite what most people would call a pretty terrible last two months. That’s higher than Matt Cain has ever posted in a single season. Tim Lincecum has done it 2/5 years but he won the Cy Young both seasons. This season, the only pitchers in the NL to top that were Lee, Halladay and Kershaw. Since I think most people assume that Cutch will only get better during his age 25-28 seasons, you’re essentially saying that Bumgarner would only be as valuable as McCutchen if he wins the Cy Young. If McCutchen were to average 6 WAR/year for the next 4 years (lofty but not unrealistic expectations), that means that even if Bumgarner were every bit as good as Lincecum has been in his 5 seasons with the Giants (23.2 WAR), McCutchen would be worth more over just 4 seasons in Pittsburgh.
This is why the Giants would have to include more in that deal. Sanchez wouldn’t be enough because I really don’t see a ton of value in him. He sprinted from A+ to SF this year, but that was more out of necessity than anything else. He wasn’t especailly good at AAA or the bigs. For the Pirates to deal an elite talent with that much control left, they’d need to get a ton back and that’s why Belt is included. Yes, he’s been outstanding in the minors but he has yet to show that he can definitely handle big league pitching. He struck out 28% of the time last year and had an OBP of just over .300. Yes, he’s an outstanding prospect but that’s kinda the point. If the Pirates are going to part with McCutchen, they’d need a ton back and there really aren’t any teams I can thin of that would be willing to offer up enough to land the Pirates star.
by KentuckyPirate on Oct 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm going by gut
I get a very strong vibe that he has zero interest in extending by even one year. Maybe – maybe – if we overpay for that one year (i.e., $35M or something), but certainly not at anything resembling a good deal for the team. Now, arguably, a good deal for the team is anything that extends the window of having Cutch here at any vaguely market-like price, but I don’t want to hang my hat on that.
I could be wrong, obviously. He’s said a few things suggesting he’d stay, but really nothing beyond what you say to be polite. He’s also suggested that he wants to see what he’s worth on the market, and I’m putting weight on that.
McCutchen won't be traded for at least another couple years
when Grossman/Marte are slamming their fists on the front door.
Really I think if Presley can do McLouth like production for the next season or two he’ll be the one to go.
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