Future prediction: McCutchen...to 1st base??
I know it's a bit early to discuss this: but with all of the "move Alvarez to 1B, Walker to 3B, etc." talk that's been happening lately, it got me to thinking about the (hopefully) crowded outfield that is probably only a year or so away, with the Pirates not having much in the 1B prospect pipeline.
Is is conceivable that Andrew McCutchen could be a viable option at first base? When I first thought of that thought, I said to myself, "that's crazy, leave your All-Star alone." But, once I got past that, I thought about the fact that, though McCutchen has great range, his arm and his rainbow throws leave a lot to be desired.
In a competition with Jose Tabata, Alex Presley and Starling Marte, McCutchen could very well end up 4th in terms of playing defense in the outfield.
Plus, we can only hope that Robbie Grossman, Josh Bell and others will be joining the discussion in a few years.
It might be an unorthodox thing to think about (and obviously it assumes that Presley, Tabata and Marte are all going to be solid MLB starting outfielders, but it's interesting to think about:
1. Whether McCutchen's offense would be enough to make him a viable 1B (obviously, in comparison to the recent play of the Pirates' 1B (Derrek Lee, not withstanding), he'd be a HOFer!!)
2. Would McCutchen be agreeable to such a move?
3. Could McCutchen become a competent 1B?
Again, I get that it's an odd thought. But the Pirates have to be willing to think in some unorthodox ways in order to get their 9 best players out on the field. And when you've got a very, very productive player in McCutchen, and if you've got a better OF option than a 1B option to put out there on the field, it starts to make a little more sense.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Um, no
What makes you say that those other guys are better defensive outfielders thsn McCutchen? I don’t think they are.
By all accounts, Starling Marte will be taking over CF very soon...
So that means only 2 of the 3 OFers get playing time. Who gets bumped?
by impliedi on Oct 22, 2011 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
OK, thats 1 of the 3 mentioned
We have not even 1/2 season of data on Presley and a little more than a year’s worth on Tabata since he can’t stay healthy. As you said its an odd idea, but certainly one that is not completely unfounded in that you’re trying to find a way to get all of your best bats in the lineup.
However, if they end up with a glut of OF (holy hell, the Bucs have a surplus?!?!) thats a good thing, and I think its likely 1 of these 2 things could happen. A) trade him for something you need or B) hang onto the odd man out (say, Presley) as your first guy off the bench who can fill in at all 3 positions. Which is quite valuable for the Bucs, especially since their benches have been pretty shitful the last few years.
Agree with you, I'm not 100% ready to deem Presley a success....
but I just think that if guys like Presley, Tabata, Marte and Grossman and others keep hitting (and Josh Bell fulfills 1/5 of his potential), the Pirates may often find themselves in a position where 4 out of the Pirates 8 best players will be outfielders on their roster.
And maybe it’s just because Marte, Grossman, Bell, etc. excite me a lot more than a Matt Hague/Matt Curry/Alex Dickerson or any of the Pirates 1st base prospects.
I agree that the Pirates could trade one for an outfielder, but would that new first baseman necessarily put up better numbers than McCutchen?
What’s funny is that I’m asking this question after making a fuss out of people wanting to move Alvarez and Walker around to cover up the holes, but I see this as the opposite, the Pirates having a “glut” (as NastyNate put it) of good players, as opposed to trying to cover the holes of a few bad areas (as they would be doing now.)
Slightly different situation
You can’t trade a glut of bad players to fill a hole. With a glut of talent, you can trade that talent to acquire talented players that belong at said position. If you trade properly, you SHOULD acquire a 1B that would outperform Cutch with the bat. Even if you don’t, there’s still the potential impact a position change could have on his bat.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
The missing link!
If we got Lars, he could play SS, 1B, C AND SP!!!
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
And he could play them all at the same time!
I actually wonder if Dickerson will turn into the type of hitter we hope Pedro will be.
by NastyNate82 on Oct 23, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd argue
that I’d rather have a 5’9" LH 1B than a 5’10" RH 1B — I’d look to move Presley over to 1B simply because he’s LH; you’d be looking at a McCutchen/Marte/Tabata OF.
Presley really impressed me with his bat — as Walbeck stated in his last interview, Presley appears to get excellent back spin on the ball. I like the way he drives the ball.
It’s all a mute point though – Pedro Alvarez should be over there, and the names above should be our 4 outfielders.
Ouch!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 22, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
"though McCutchen has great range, his arm and his rainbow throws leave a lot to be desired"
Great range + weak arm = good defensive CF. Getting to and catching the ball is more important than throwing it back in once you have it — the advantage of (say) keeping a runner from going to 3rd on a single is a lot less than the advantage of turning the single into an out in the first place.
These numbers bear that out, in that the spread of Arm Runs is a lot smaller than the spread of Range Runs, but I understand if you don’t buy the specific analysis behind them. Still, I think it makes sense to think that range is more important than arm.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 22, 2011 11:54 AM EDT reply actions
I agree
that far too much has been made about Cutch’s arm or how its just so damn average. Range, especially in center, is far more important. Its just something to pick on your best player when a team has far greater issues.
I guess my feeling is that Tabata, Presley and Marte could all handle CF very capably (by all accounts)
In fact, many have already made the assumption that McCutchen will move to LF when Marte is ready.
And I guess I was just wondering because McCutchen probably gives you more offense than any of the Pirates 1st base prospects.
Actually, I center a lot of my attention on how outfielders throw....
but a lot of that has to do with watching Andy Van Slyke (and Glenn Wilson!) when I was in high school.
I used to go to a lot of Pirates games and just watch AVS’s every move while the Pirates were on the field (I was trying to become a better outfielder at the time – what a great school that was to have in Pittsburgh – Andy Van Slyke and Glenn Wilson in the same outfield!!). His positioning and arm were impressive, but what stood out the most was his arm motion and release points. He would release the ball a tad later than a lot of other guys giving his throws that very amazing “frozen rope” trajectory rather than the rainbow so many outfielders have. Glenn Wilson was even more impressive to watch.
But what amazed me, at the time, was how easy it was to change your motion and drastically improve your throws. So, it always bothers me when I see any outfielder throwing a rainbow!
I think you're confusing my point, a bit.
I’m not saying, “Oh my, McCutchen’s arm is terrible in CF, he must be moved now!!”
What I’m saying is this: McCutchen has a flaw in his defense (weak arm), therefore, if Pirates end up with a guy with good range AND a good arm, shouldn’t they move McCutchen?
Or to put it another way: if McCutchen has comparable range to 3 other outfielders, but the weakest arm, shouldn’t he be the one (despite being the star) to be moved?
I think
the problem with this assumption is that McCutchen doesn’t have “comparable range” he has superior range to Tabata, AP, Bell and Grossman. He has comparable range to Marte and less than Gorkys. Even if all 6 were in the majors at the same time, the best defensive outfield would be Marte (RF), Gorkys (CF) and Cutch (LF)
by KentuckyPirate on Oct 26, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell no
And the reason I say this is because he provides the most value to your team NOT playing first base. You mention Josh Bell coming into the discussion a few years from now. He’s the future first baseman in that group. The rest are a total waste of defensive ability in the infield.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Great Post!
It’s very important to move around players and let them play lots of different positions. I would like to see Alvarez try catching and maybe even let Hanrhan play some centerfield.
don't be a prick
He said it was an unorthodox idea. If you hate it so much, then respond with reasoned arguments or not at all.
The world that has Starling Marte soon to take over CF...
by impliedi on Oct 22, 2011 5:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That
makes him unworthy?
See the Angels. Trout and Bourjos
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 22, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Right...
Would it be so bad to have 3 guys who are all capable of playing CF starting across all 3 actual OF positions? I think your defense would be in good shape if you had Devon White, Gary Pettis, and Gary Matthews out there.
One
would think.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 22, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I asked about McCutchen's unworthiness to play CF
I did not ask if McCutchen would be the best defensive CF on any future Pirates team.
Based on hype/reputation, this would be the rank ordering of the Pirates higer-level CFers based on their defense:
1. Hernandez
2. Marte
3. McCutchen
4. Tabata
5. Presely
This ordering, assuming it’s accurate, in no way implies that McCutchen is a poor CFer.
s.zielinski
Defensively, Gorky’s is the shit. I suppose that means you believe Gorky’s can’t pay CF very well. You’re the first person I’ve read who made that claim.
s.zielinski
I mean
he really only hits well enough to be an average first baseman. Hypothetically we could trade him for much better than an average 1B.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 22, 2011 4:48 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah.... SO?
boyoboy, Thunder, me old son.
You’re gonna get raked over th’ briquettes for that comment!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 22, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, 'Tails...
I was the one (or one of the few) last winter (before the Overpaid disaster) that was arguing that somebody 5’10" COULD play 1B. Steve Garvey comes to mind.
I were just kiddin'.
But yes, you were.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 23, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps I should have rephrased my question a little differently (but I thought the McCutchen move to 1B would get more attention!), so here goes...
Looking at the Pirates and their minor league prospects, I could very well see the possibility that 4 out of the Pirates 8 best players on the team at any given time in the future could be outfielders.
Would you be in favor of the Pirates getting creative in getting those 4 outfielders into the line-up in the regular fashion.
The reason I mentioned McCutchen is that I’d feel pretty good with an outfield of, say, Presley/Marte/Tabata (which I think would be a pretty fantastic defensive outfield, along with very good offense) if you still found a way of getting McCutchen into that line-up.
McCutchen’s future numbers might not be far off from anything you would see out of a Hague/Curry/etc., so I figure that the trade-off of getting a better hitting outfielder into the line-up over a poorer hitting first baseman makes sense to me.
Again, I have no idea if McCutchen could even play the position (as Thunder mentions, McCutchen is a little short for a 1B), and what the implications would be of moving an All-Star CF out of his position because you are having trouble finding a legit 1B.
I think the Pirates will have to continually think in creative terms, in order to get their 8 best players out onto the field at the same time.
Going with this
I would be for the Pirates doing whatever it takes to get their best players in the lineup, but keep in mind the value of defensive runs saved as well. That lineup, certainly, saves a lot of runs. (2/3 of the Earth is covered by water. The other 1/3 would be covered by that defensive alignment.) I would like to see them do whatever they can to put the best possible team on the field, even if it requires them to move their all-star CF to the infield. I can’t see Cutch playing 3rd (arm) or SS (just such a difficult position to move to so quickly). That leaves 2nd and 1st. Ideally, I’d like more production from 1st with the bat and a waste of his range too. Maybe second then? I’m just not sure how that would work for him.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Frankly...
by the time Grossman gets to Pittsburgh (2014?), Cutch will be on his way out of Pittsburgh, unless an extension gets done. His potential arbitration awards at the end of the 2013 and 2014 seasons will be higher than Neal Huntington is willing to pay, especially if Grossman and Marte are everything Pirates fans think they are. Hello, trade.
so far its seems to me that
McCutchen is intent on not stayin in Pittsburgh longer than required. So 2015 would be his last year in the Burgh.
But McCutchen can still create a lot of value. So keep him in the Burgh for at least the next couple years and then when the Coles, Martes, Grossmans knock through the door trade Cutch in a deal similar to Hunter Pence.
McCutchen will likely walk and we end with nothing but if we can get some legit Top 50 prospects then the skys the limited.
Call up Atlanta and see if we can get Tehrhen and Heyward (a buy-low candidate) for him.
by BadAndy on Oct 23, 2011 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's quite a return
even for Cutch. In case they said yes, I’d already have the paperwork loaded into the fax machine. Given that they did just make a deal to acquire Michael Bourn (although they probably would’ve been better served with Jason Bourne), I would think they’d be hesitant to pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal like that.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
My future prediction: Move McCutchen to Shortstop.
Think about it. Basically all the other positions are full, except Catcher. Catcher is too injury prone. Moving Cutch to Shortstop would be great. Make him more valuable and stuff.
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
Cutch would actually be a great shortstop if he had the practice to bring his groundball skills up to par. The arm is a rocket.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Oct 24, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems to me that the most telling point.....
…..in the replies posted so far is that McCutchen would provide more value to the Pirates as trade bait rather than playing first base, summarized as follows:
- McCutchen has high value as a CF. His defense contributes to his value, and his bat plays well in CF. Potential trade partners likely would agree.
- McCutchen’s bat (and size) would not play nearly as well at 1B and his speed would be wasted on defense there.
If the other outfielders (Tabata, Presley, Marte, Hernandez, Grossman) continue to perform/develop well enough to confirm the Pirates’ strength in the outfield, it seems that trading from that strength to fill other holes has more potential than moving Cutch to 1B.
Well sort of
From my perspective, his defense (obvious) contributes to his value. But I feel like what we’re forgetting is into the future, his bat will probably be much more valuable than Presley/Tabata (and likely Marte). His defense value is likely better than those, so he makes much more sense in a corner position than those two. What the argument seems to be is that his bat, being the most valuable, makes the most sense at a position that provides less defensive value.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
For the record
Most posters are decrying this idea as stupid or crazy. I agree that it probably won’t ever happen, due to some of the reasons mentioned (offensive value lower as a 1B, risk in asking a marquee player to give up his position) — but probably the main reason is just that baseball folks still tend to be very, very conservative in terms of stuff like that.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, I give credit to the OP for coming up with a very interesting idea and a pretty viable solution to a scenario which may very well play out over the next few years.
Thanks Garrett, for at least understanding the question that I am posing....
The problem that a team like the Pirates will probably continually run into is this:
How often will the Pirates 8 BEST players on their roster be exactly 3 OF, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 2B, 1 1B, and 1 C? Probably never or very rarely.
Hopefully, the Pirates will build up their minor league system enough to have trading chips to fill those holes, but it probably won’t work every time.
The Pirates have time and time again made those efforts to get better bats into the line-up, even if their defensive position doesn’t line-up (thinking of players like Freddy Sanchez and Neil Walker being moved to 2B to try and get their bats into the line-up…well, Walker was a little more complicated than that.)
Delwyn Young and Jeff Clement are some examples of less successful attempts.
But, I don’t see the Pirates becoming too successful without moving a few guys around to get their better ballplayers onto the field, regardless of position.
Hopefully the Pirates are choosing the best “all-around ballplayers” when they are drafting, because the Pirates’ players will have to be malleable and able to move around the diamond.
I chose McCutchen because it is a more extreme example of what I am talking about (and I figured it would separate the people who would even bother to try and understand what I am talking about and those that just read the headline and scoffed at the idea – which it did perfectly.)
Charlie (and others) have already stated a few times that the Pirates don't have any chance in 2012.
They're probably right, as the projected roster stands at present.
And there’s little reason to hold out hope the FO will do anything meaningful in FA or via the trade route. (I haven’t given up all hope, though.)
I’m just saying that it will be nice to talk about “real” baseball topics affecting next season, instead of “Cutch to first” nonsense.
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