Five Better Values than Maholm at $9.75 Million?
by Roberto on Oct 27, 2011 10:08 AM EDT
Email
PrintAmid the dismay about the likely decision to decline Mahom's option, I think an important point has been missed: It is likely that one can get comparable performance for substantially less than $9.75 million. Let's take a look at some existing contracts.
Chris Capuano has a base salary of $1.5 million with potential bonuses of $3.0 million. Jeff Francis has a base salary of $2.0 million and no bonus. Erik Bedard has a salary of $1.0 million and no bonus. Freddy Garcia has a salary of $1.5 million and no bonus. Bartolo Colon has a salary of $0.9 million and no bonus.
The $5 million per additional win is what's misleading. As Bill Barnwell points out, $5 million per incremental win is what incompetent management does. In 2010 the only teams spending $5 million per incremental win were the Cubs and Seattle. Need I say more? Paul Maholm is a perfectly capable pitcher, and I'd be happy to have him pitching for the Pirates next year. But not at a salary of $9.75 million. There are other uses for the money, and I think that's what's driving NH's decision.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
104 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
That is if the goal was best $rate per incremental win...
That measurement would be great if we were all owners trying to find the best value in our next general manager but for a fan that measurement is below wins and losses, which at the end of the day is all i care about. That being said, I do think Maholm can be replaced in the market with a pitcher who has a better chance of replicating last year’s numbers than Maholm does. i also think we can get a cheaper catcher who is better and more consistant than Mr. Doumit.
Will those things happen with a front office whose track record regarding major league acquisition is abysmal? I don’t know, but if I were Neal Huntington i would be aggressively identifying the players I want like Barajas and Crapuano and let these guys know that 2 years, 10 million dollar deals are on the table.
Chris Capuano has a base salary of $1.5 million with potential bonuses of $3.0 million. Jeff Francis has a base salary of $2.0 million and no bonus. Erik Bedard has a salary of $1.0 million and no bonus. Freddy Garcia has a salary of $1.5 million and no bonus. Bartolo Colon has a salary of $0.9 million and no bonus.
The reason that all of those pitchers earned lower salaries than Maholm last year is that all five have a recent medical history containing one or more significant injuries:
*Capuano had TJ surgery in 2002, a second TJ surgery in early 2008, and missed an substantial amount of 2010 with what was described as “arm soreness”.
*Francis missed all of 2009 and part of 2010 after shoulder surgery, and his average fastball in 2011 (his first full year back) was more than 2 MPH slower than his pre-injury fastball.
*Bedard missed the end of the 2009 season after shoulder surgery, did not pitch in 2010, then had another shoulder surgery.
*Garcia had a major shoulder surgery in 2007, and hardly pitched at all in the two years after that. His steady downward velocity trend kind of speaks for itself.
*Colon injured his shoulder in 2009 and missed the entire 2010 season as a result. He then underwent an experimental procedure in the Dominican Republic, involving the use of stem cells.
So the lesson to take home from your examples is that you can sometimes get a bargain when buying free agent pitchers if you’re willing to assume significant risks. The other side of that particular coin is that when buying those types of pitchers, they come with an increased risk of injury or ineffectiveness. Look at Brandon Webb, Chris Young, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny in 2011, or Chien-Ming Wang, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny in 2010, or Mike Hampton in 2009, 2010, and 2011…
maybe we should try to sign three such guys and keep the one whose arm doesn't fall off
I’m almost not joking.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 27, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe we should try to sign three such guys and keep the one whose arm doesn’t fall off
I’m almost not joking.
You can do that, but don’t forget about the opportunity cost of burning three spots on the 40-man roster (and potentially also the 25-man roster) to get one player’s worth of production for the season.
yeah, that's the problem
If I were a GM trying to think outside the box, I might try to see if I could sign some of these guys to NRI contracts with bigger money than usual — in the $2-3M range, I mean — and a Resop-style out clause where they can declare free agency if they’re not up in the majors by a certain date, so you could give them a look without clogging up the roster. But maybe the guys who’ll sign that kind of contract won’t have a 1/3 chance of success.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 27, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Good strategy
Don’t know if you could actually attract more than 1 or 2 guys under those terms, though.
how about
Ben Sheets on a low base/high incentive contract?
(This is assuming his arm is still connected to his body…)
And I’m not talking a $10m/1-year deal like Beane threw at him (how’d THAT work out for you, Billy).
by insane_sanity on Oct 27, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd have gone for Rick Allen
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 28, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I have Rik Allen's auto on a baseball
along with Tom Petty, Wes Parker, Ken Norton, Jr., Carlton Fisk, Lou Brock, Dave Winfield, and former Pirate Lee Lacy.
Nice guy.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 28, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
True...
all except for Rik Allen were people who came to the field where I coached Little League. Petty & Winfield to see their kids (or friend’s kids) play, Brock and Fisk to do a commercial, Lacy & Parker were there for our Opening Day Ceremonies.
I kept the ball in my car, and just happened to run into Rik in Malibu one afternoon…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 28, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
oh yeah, you were in LA
that explains alot of that. how many people can claim they have a ball with tom petty and the one armed drummer?
That IS one way of putting it...
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 29, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Then again, chances are decent if we signed say, Capuano and Francis for 9.75 million combined
We get the production similar to Maholm from one, and production better than Correia from the other. I don’t think that signing them two instead of Maholm is a much greater risk, and also has more reward potential if both can stay even relatively healthy.
then say okay, but you gotta throw in surkamp and duvall too
time to play hardball, fellas
by white angus on Oct 27, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
hes more affordable, for now, than maholm
More affordable in dollars, but not in total cost once you factor in the dollar value of the prospects that would be needed to acquire him.
you cant keep prospects forever Vlad
theres not enough room for all of them.
you are one of the guys who say the team is punting 2012, but if they pull off a trade for someone like Sanchez, its a bad thing because we gave up prospects???
If we were getting Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner...
…I’d be interested.
Here are the ERA+ for the 5 pitchers who started at least 19 games for the Giants last year: 123, 130, 111, 132, 84. Guess which one is Sanchez.
Admittedly, he did have a 127 ERA+ in 2010, so he’s not a total waste, but his ERA+ for the two previous years were 88 and 101; his career ERA+ is 97, which includes some partial stints in 2006 and 2007 covering 60 appearences (8 starts). He’s been worth 4.8 WAR over the past four years, but 3.6 of that was in 2010.
Sake of argument, Paul Maholm has a career ERA+ of 96 and has been worth 8.2 WAR since 2008, with no more than half of that number coming in any one year.
Sanchez is a trap guy; you would have to overpay for hiim in prospects because he seems like he’s better than he is, but at the end of the day, he’s pretty much average.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
it would have to be straight up to get Cain or Bumgarner
im a big believer in Bum. hes the shit, and he could be an ACE for us for a long long time.
straight up, i would still do the deal.
my argument on Sanchez is the short period of team control, especially since his time here could very well NOT coincide with overall team success at the ML level.
It also appears that the 2010 Sanchez was an anomaly…an anomaly that jacked up his arbitration earnings significantly.
by insane_sanity on Oct 27, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
he does walk too many guys, but he doesnt give up many hits either
i dont think 2010 was an anomaly.
With his season-by-season ERA+ numbers of 92, 77, 88, 101, 127 and 84, he’s been consistently below-average to barely average except for one season where he was lights-out.
That’s pretty much the dictionary definition of "anomaly.’
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
not if you believe
that the 2011 Pirates were close to their true talent level, and Sanchez career or 2011 numbers are close to his true talent level.
no, JSanchez would still be the ACE of 2011 too
his talent is higher than anyone in our rotation in the last few years.
Who cares?
Being the ace of the Pirates isn’t a great accomplishment nor anything to really brag about.
Yeah, he’d be the best pitcher on the Pirates, but his true talent is probably a #3 on a good team, and a #2 on an average team.
Hence, when healthy, he’s the Giants third best starter.
i wouldnt be giving up prospects for Maholm
and for his career, Sanchez has an ERA+ of 97, and Maholm 96. If he’s better than Maholm, he certainly isnt consistently so.
I wouldnt mind having him on the Pirates but I wouldnt want to be trading anything for him.
im telling you metric guys now... Sanchez is not equal to Maholm
im trying my best to accept the metric stuff but im yanking out all my ear hair in the process.
aiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
well, this should be an easier metric for you
ERA+ simply says how someone produced compared to league average. 100 is league average, higher is better, lower is worse. So, there’s no fun stuff going on here.
well, it's park-adjusted, so there's a little fun stuff there
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Oct 27, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i knew i'd trip up somewhere...
well, at least its close…OTOH there’s ERA, career for Sanchez 4.26, for Maholm, 4.36
and hes better than Maholm
You keep saying this, but at least as far as results are concerned, it’s not actually true.
But he’s more talented, a breakout candidate, a better fit for our team and stadium and would cost less in salary
Sanchez...
misses a lot of bats…but he also misses the plate a lot…almost 5 BB/9…which is a higher career walk rate than anyone we had pitch more than 21 innings this season.
yeah…21 innings is arbitrary…but it includes all the pitchers that were semi-healthy. Meek was not.
And I'm not sure he's gonna be much cheaper.
he made $4.8M last year and is going to arb this year. Guessing $7-8M might not be stretching too much.
i dont think 2010 was an anomaly.
His 2010 performance was not an anomaly, as such. His xFIP that year was 3.94, pretty close to the 4.14 xFIP he put up in 2009 and the 4.09 xFIP he put up in 2008.
It was, however, a year when his ERA did not represent the quality of his pitching with any real degree of accuracy.
i dont think 2010 was an anomaly.
His 2010 performance was not an anomaly, as such. His xFIP that year was 3.94, pretty close to the 4.14 xFIP he put up in 2009 and the 4.09 xFIP he put up in 2008.
It was, however, a year when his ERA did not represent the quality of his pitching with any real degree of accuracy.
you are one of the guys who say the team is punting 2012, but if they pull off a trade for someone like Sanchez, its a bad thing because we gave up prospects???
It’s a bad thing because we gave up prospects unnecessarily. We could keep Maholm and give up the prospects to fill one of our many needs that can’t be adequately filled with just money (since no quality FAs will sign with us), like a starting 1B who hits like a starting 1B.
but why keep everyone???
we keep to damn long and if they struggle we’ll never be able to get rid of them.
this is what we call the Shelby Ford affect…
but why keep everyone???
You have lots of dollar bills in your wallet. Why not toss a few out the window?
If you need more later, you can always sell some of the stuff at your house.
Yes, actually.
Though he’s eligible for the Rule 5 this offseason. Maybe we’ll take the opportunity to rectify past errors…
Well, yeah. That’s the whole problem. If we’d hung onto Uviedo, he would’ve been good for a lot more than 9 2/3 innings for us.
no
he would still be in the minor leagues, just like he was with Toronto.
he may still be in Altoona.
he would be left available in rule5
he would be bypassed in the rule5 and reassigned to the minor league system.
so yes, he would still be a pirate. good call.
he would still be in the minor leagues, just like he was with Toronto.
I think he probably would’ve picked up a late roster spot and a September promotion, actually. He’s good enough to be worth a spot on somebody’s 40-man (which is why he’s gotten one twice already).
Saying that he’d still be in Altoona is crazy talk. When he was with Altoona back in 2010, he had a 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9. That’s not the kind of performance that encourages a team to leave you at a level indefinitely – particularly if you have good stuff, like Uviedo.
Uviedo’s first start in winter ball this year: Five innings, five Ks, four hits, one walk, no runs.
But yeah, we were probably better off going with Burress and Aaron Thompson.
Walks remain the problem
if not in this game. He’s averaged 4.0 walks per nine in AA, and it’s hard to forecast that they won’t remain high with his max-effort delivery.
Viva Clemente!
He’s averaged 4.0 walks per nine in AA…
Only 3.3 at AA this year, and 3.6 after his promotion to AAA.
He’d probably be up in the 4s in the majors, but you can be a pretty solid ML reliever if you do the other stuff well, and Uviedo does. Look at Jose Veras, for example.
Lots of ML-caliber players slip through waivers at one point or another. Garrett Jones did when he was with the Twins – do you think he’d have trouble finding another roster spot, if we dropped him now? How about Karstens? We slid him through waivers ourselves, remember?
hey, Jones has almost proven himself in the majors
you can brag about Uviedo once he has done the same. until then, he wasnt considered an upgrade over anyones 40man
>:-P
you can brag about Uviedo once he has done the same.
Scouting reports and performance records don’t lie.
with our lineups...
that’s not much to brag about…
by insane_sanity on Oct 28, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s successfully made the transition to AAA.
By your standard in this matter, Jameson Taillon has also “done nothing”, since he’s not in the majors yet.
i stick with my reasoning
youre the only one on here that lost sleep about Uviedo, a relief pitcher no less.
if Taillon wasnt a top overall prospect AND not a starter, then that statement would make sense.
youre the only one on here that lost sleep about Uviedo, a relief pitcher no less.
If he projects as a useful reliever, why is it not a problem that we tossed him away for nothing?
if Taillon wasnt a top overall prospect AND not a starter, then that statement would make sense.
Fine. Then make it a guy who’s a mid-level prospect who projects as a role player at the next level, like Jordy Mercer. Would you be upset if the team released Mercer tomorrow, for no reason?
fwiw
i was pissed about the trade as well, because we were giving up a potentially useful piece for nothing really. (Said so at the time, too)
by BurgherKing on Oct 31, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would he require good prospects?
He’s expensive, superfluous to the Giants and coming off an injury filled and somewhat ineffective season.
The Giants need at least five starters, and Sanchez is the fifth-best starter on the roster. They want to compete, and aren’t going to deliberately downgrade their rotation for no reason, just because they have Zito on the payroll. Also, the FA SP market sucks this offseason, as we’ve noted on numerous occasions, and Sanchez is the type of hard-throwing build-a-dream-on guy who never has trouble attracting interest from other teams.
5th best?
Timmy, Cain, Bumgarner….. Zito?
Am I forgetting someone?
I refuse to accept that
He could have a career path that leaves Bautista in the dust, and when I walk past his plaque in the HoF, I’ll say, “Hey, why is there a blank spot on the wall here? No plaque at all, no sir.”
Relievers to Starters
I think the smart path to small market teams finding bottom of the rotation starters is converting relievers. The $10 million dollar per year contracts are just too risky. On our roster, I’d look at D McCutchen, Tony Watson, Jose Veras, and Chris Resop. Plus, there are numerous pitchers out there stuck in a relief role when they would rather be starting. Aaron Heilman is one, not that he would succeed, but if given a chance to start, he’d sign with us in a second. You start the season with one of these guys in the rotation and replace them and try another if they fail.
add Chris Leroux to that list... hes actually selling himself on this
dCutch was a starter just a year ago. Resop started one season his whole career. Watson is pitching better in long relief.
shit, hanrahan was a starter too.
add Chris Leroux to that list… hes actually selling himself on this
I know Leroux’s been pushing for this, but given his history of arm problems, I really don’t think it’s a good idea.
Checkout Leroux's winter league stats
He’s doin better than even Gerrit Cole.
Give him a try. Since Morton will be out for awhile.
Heilman already signed with us...
in August. His last start…May 15, 2005.
A little tidbit from his transaction line…
January 28, 2009: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Chicago Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson.
sure
all the fringe guys would “rather be starting” — there’s more money to be made there.
Just because they’re having some level of success as relievers doesn’t mean they’re going to have that same success in a starting role. Quite honestly, of the names mentioned above…I’m not convinced any of them would have reasonable success going through a batting order a 2nd (or 3rd) time.
by insane_sanity on Oct 27, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bucs Dugout
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
