No Bradenton Players In BA Top 20 Florida State League Prospects
Nope, not even Robbie Grossman, the Pirates' minor league player of the year.
UPDATE by Charlie: Jim Callis explains: "Stats > tools, not sure he's even a solid regular."
I've been on the Robbie Grossman Skepticism Committee all year, and even I think this is a bit much, especially when one considers the improvements he made throughout the year with making contact and hitting for power.
8 months ago
white angus
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Jim Callis
via twitter:
Stats > tools, not sure he’s even a solid regular. @s_k_rummel: Was Robbie Grossman close to making FSL Top 20? Suprised he did not #Pirates
Interestingly, a lot of people feel the same way about Szczur
And his stats aren’t even that good. Oh well, time will tell, I guess.
i like Jim Callis
that being said, wonder what he wrote about Alex Presley. It’s not always about a guy’s projections. Alexnotelvis continued to make me a believer last year, and if Grossman continues to put up incredible stats, isn’t it time to give him fair credit too? I mean, Presley put up an INCREDIBLE 2 year stretch at AA and AAA and there are way more naysayers than believers.
What do the naysayers say?
I wasn’t familiar with him but I thought he looked really good in the few games I saw this season.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
Callis again
Tweener OF with a lot of avg tools but no plus tools. @andrewrothey: on Grossman, what about plate discipline and batters eye? #Pirates
I think McPherson will be in the Eastern League list.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 3, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Manny Machado’s already made two lists this year just to give one example. On the FSL list Zack Cox only spent about 1/3 of the season in the league before moving. If you’re good enough they’ll throw you on every list you qualify for.
pirates have very few "sexy" prospects
mcpherson and grossman, not very “sexy” players, ya know? mcpherson especially.
I think McPherson is a better prospect than Grossman, but I don’t think either is an oversight. Cunningham would be on my list if I were making one, but he would be in the 15-20 range. I don’t really have any problem with no Marauders being on the list. The FSL was very strong this year, and the Marauders didn’t have a lot of talent.
yeah
But the actual report in there is old. It doesn’t do McPherson justice any more. I saw McPherson three times this year, and he was 90-94 with the fastball and held the velo pretty well late into his starts. His change had good movement, and I liked it better than his curve. The curve was pretty similar to the description by Newman, though: 11-5 break, average pitch but inconsistent command.
Thx for your report. I hope he can crack the big-league rotation by mid-season. Staff had lowest Swinging Strike % in the NL, and really needs someone who can miss bats.
i agree with the surprise
but I don’t follow other teams prospects that closely, except the well known ones, and its hard for me to feel very strongly when I cannot really compare them. In any case, there’s too much emotion spent on lists. Players are beating the odds or falling off lists all too often to worry about A-ball lists too much.
I can’t say I care much that Presley was left off lists. I am v v happy that he’s up and performing. I also think he’s legit, and I hope the thumb issue doesn’t derail things for him…
What do you think of the two Twins outfielders on the list?
Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks? Do they have any reasonable reason to be above Grossman?
yes
Arcia has insane power. His upside with the bat is off the charts.
Hicks is a tougher call. He’s similar to Grossman in a lot of ways, but Grossman far outperformed him this year. I do like his tools significantly more, though. Better speed, better bat speed, more power projection, better defender at a more important position.
I understand Arcia has got power, but his 53 Ks to 9 BB in 227 PA in A+ isn't very pretty to me either Vlad
I understand though that he’s a project in that respect, and he does have a lot of power upside.
Well, a note on Hicks speed, he hasn't used it it seems very effectively on the basepaths
I mean, his 60 SB to 30 CS is worse than even Grossman’s 75 SB to 30 CS, not to mention the fact that he’s shown little power to date despite being a guy who looks at a ton of pitches. I mean, you talked a lot of Grossman’s passive approach and his about 35% of PAs ending in a SO or walk, but Hicks has an even higher figure than that at 35.6% of PAs ending in a SO or walk. So I’d take it you’d dislike his approach in all likelihood if you watched him, and his use of his speed. About the only thing I see he has going for him big time is position, but at what point does that positive get outweighed by the negatives when comparing him to Grossman.
I’ve seen Hicks quite a few times. He’s not as passive as Grossman, but he does share Grossman’s troubles with contact. I think I like Hicks’ overall approach a bit more, but it’s close – I’m not a big fan of either. And yeah, he needs to work on using his speed better on the basepaths (as does Grossman).
Like I said, he is faster, has more power potential, plays better defense at a more important position. His tools are just a lot more impressive than Grossman’s. The only negative when comparing the two is that Grossman had a way better season, performance-wise. That’s not nothing – as Vlad mentions below, it’s getting close to the time when we need to stop giving Hicks’s tools a pass – but I’d much prefer the guy who has the better tools and the higher upside.
If he's not as passive as Grossman
Why does he seem to walk and strikeout at an even higher rate than Grossman? If it’s true that he’s more aggressive than Grossman yet walks a crazy amount of times and strikes out a crazy amount of times, that would seem to be indicative of a guy who either
A. has much worse contact than Grossman, but sometimes decides to take a ton of pitches for one reason or another
or B. Is extremely streaky with contact, sometimes having really good contact, and sometimes having EXCEEDINGLY bad contact
To walk a ton and strikeout at a level higher than Grossman without being passive just doesn’t make much sense otherwise.
Arcia's good.
I think he’s R5 eligible this year, since he signed on 7/4/07. Switch hitter, good power, runs fairly well, held his own against older competition. Projects as an above-average RF in the majors. He wouldn’t recognize ball four if it bit him on the ass, though, and he had elbow surgery this year, both of which should hurt his stock at least a bit.
Hicks is a tools hound, but we’re getting to the point where the actual performance is starting to worry me. Not showing much power potential, and not hitting for much average for a fast guy, either. BA’s always loved him, though – he made the first half of their top 100 each of the last three years.
Correction:
Arcia used to switch-hit, but has apparently given it up without me taking notice of it until now. Sorry about that.
lots of people here on BD have a huge man crush on CUNNINGHAM, yet where is he?
ive stated before that we fell in love with the bat speed and the power surge from the middle infielder, yet no one else has even heard of the guy.
once again, Jarek is not a standout as a prospect. he has no position as of yet and pitch recognition is a huge problem for him right now.
I agree that he’s not a standout in the top-100 sense, but he’s a good prospect. A long-term position change and pitch recognition are problems, but on the other side of the ledger is the pretty swing, good bat speed, and excellent power. He gets a decent amount of love over at minorleagueball.com, and Mike Newman has praised him as well. I’m sure anyone who follows prospects closely knows who he is.
once again, Jarek is not a standout as a prospect
He would be getting more ink if he didn’t play for us, IMO.
Losing 2009 also hurt him. He was starting to draw some attention in rookie ball in 2008. If he’d played and put up even a mildly disappointing season, it would’ve helped his rep a lot. Instead, it was a case of “out of sight, out of mind”.
That said, I agree that Pirates fans tend to overrate Cunningham a bit. He’s got some ML tools, and could end up as a very good player, but until he starts drawing some walks or making more contact, he’s on the Kody Kirkland career path.
And
half of 2011. Huge upside and massive bust rate at this point. Too volatile to rank highly, but one can dream.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
In
that same thread, if he came out next year in A+ ball, put up similar ISO numbers (to this year) in half a season in A+ and then half a season in AA, all while dropping his K% a few points and raising his BB% a few points (no small feat, but possible) and suddenly he’s a B+/A- prospect. That’s how good his bat is in my opinion.
He’s just so far from that point, and unfortunately injuries have played a large role. Glad to see him in the AFL.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about the optimism on this board...
speaking to the Altoona Four from last year, the vast majority on this board were quick to defend the prospects of these four pitchers while the vast majority of the national scouting websites that I read were lukewarm at best. A year later we see that there was merit to their pessimism.
This year this national scout and others are tepid on Grossman and McPherson and don’t generally regard Cunningham as much of a prospect. My guess is there are merits to that pessimism also. I sure hope I am wrong but it seems that here we are consitently higher on Bucs prospects than the rest of the known world, which makes sense viscerally but is surprising on the board which many regards themselves as the “enlightened” fans. Could It be that outside the last 4-5 big name signees, this system has improved very little like other have speculated?
maybe, maybe not
only a couple of systems have fantastic prospects after their top 5 or 6. its usually a huge dropoff, on a yearly basis, for pretty much every ballclub.
the exception was the 2011 Royals who were talented from 1 to 10. but even they will drop considerably in 2012 from a couple of promotions and lots of bad performances from the others
Shouldn’t people only concentrating on 75 guys be more knowledgeable than someone concentrating on 2000? I guess time will tell. The “experts” whiff on plenty of guys too, it just comes with the territory.
Fans of every team think the “experts” underrate their prospects. Every single one. Everyone has a grievance. I’ll take BA over Pirates fans, or fans of any team, in their assessment of the overall value of that team’s prospects.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Oct 4, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Remind me
to get Callis for an upcoming podcast instead of you.
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Oct 4, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure are a heck of a lot of Phillies on that list
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
It isn't updated on that list...
But keep in mind that Singleton and Cosart are now Astros.
by shortman8889 on Oct 4, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Funny
“This is a good spot to mention that these league top 20 lists place more value on league context and performance than our organization Top 30 lists. Allie just did not perform this summer and did not impress many people around the NY-P, but he’ll still factor pretty heavily in that Pirates Top 30, I suspect.” – in regard to Allie
That sure got turned upside down quickly when we got to Grossman.
Round n round we go.
speaking of royals prospects: WILL MYERS
was the #10 overall prospect in baseball last season. they took him off of Catcher and had a poor season in AA. Hes now the #13 prospect on BA’s texas league list, behind Grant Green. They still list Green as a shortstop, which i think is hilarious.
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