FanPost

2011 Pirates, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Pirates 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the PIrates games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4453 which translates to an expected win total of 72.15 games.  The Pirates actually went 72-90 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Pirates were the largest favorite to win.

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc PIT Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 09-05-11 Henry Sosa James McDonald HOU PIT PIT 58.932 58.932 PIT 1 3 4
2 09-06-11 Brett Myers Brad Lincoln HOU PIT PIT 58.763 58.763 HOU 4 1 5
3 08-05-11 Aaron Harang Jeff Karstens SD PIT PIT 58.42 58.42 SD 15 5 20
4 08-04-11 Rodrigo Lopez James McDonald CHN PIT PIT 57.537 57.537 CHN 7 6 13
5 08-02-11 Randy Wells Kevin Correia CHN PIT PIT 57.356 57.356 CHN 11 6 17
6 08-01-11 Carlos Zambrano Paul Maholm CHN PIT PIT 57.265 57.265 CHN 5 3 8
7 09-07-11 J.A. Happ Brian Burres HOU PIT PIT 56.989 56.989 PIT 4 5 9
8 05-08-11 J.A. Happ James McDonald HOU PIT PIT 56.332 56.332 PIT 4 5 9
9 07-08-11 Rodrigo Lopez James McDonald CHN PIT PIT 56.236 56.236 PIT 4 7 11
10 07-04-11 Brett Myers Paul Maholm HOU PIT PIT 56.14 56.14 PIT 3 5 8
11 04-24-2011 Jason Marquis Kevin Correia WAS PIT PIT 55.056 55.056 WAS 6 3 9
12 09-25-2011 Dontrelle Willis James McDonald CIN PIT PIT 54.853 54.853 CIN 5 4 9
13 09-01-11 Dana Eveland Brad Lincoln LAN PIT PIT 54.751 54.751 LAN 6 4 10
14 07-10-11 Ramon Ortiz Paul Maholm CHN PIT PIT 53.917 53.917 PIT 1 9 10
15 07-05-11 Wandy Rodriguez Jeff Karstens HOU PIT PIT 53.811 53.811 PIT 1 5 6
16 08-30-2011 Charlie Morton Henry Sosa PIT HOU PIT 53.596 53.596 HOU 2 8 10
17 05-10-11 Ted Lilly Kevin Correia LAN PIT PIT 53.271 53.271 LAN 10 3 13
18 07-06-11 Bud Norris Charlie Morton HOU PIT PIT 53.162 53.162 HOU 8 2 10
19 04-25-2011 John Lannan Paul Maholm WAS PIT PIT 53.162 53.162 PIT 2 4 6
20 05-06-11 Wandy Rodriguez Paul Maholm HOU PIT PIT 52.941 52.941 HOU 3 2 5
21 06-08-11 Zach Duke Paul Maholm ARI PIT PIT 52.941 52.941 PIT 2 3 5
22 08-06-11 Cory Luebke Paul Maholm SD PIT PIT 52.719 52.719 SD 13 2 15
23 05-07-11 Bud Norris Charlie Morton HOU PIT PIT 52.719 52.719 PIT 1 6 7
24 06-13-2011 Mike Pelfrey Paul Maholm NYN PIT PIT 52.719 52.719 PIT 1 3 4
25 08-31-2011 James McDonald J.A. Happ PIT HOU PIT 52.719 52.719 HOU 0 2 2
26 06-10-11 Dillon Gee Charlie Morton NYN PIT PIT 52.267 52.267 NYN 8 1 9
27 06-20-2011 Jake Arrieta Charlie Morton BAL PIT PIT 52.267 52.267 BAL 8 3 11
28 04-23-2011 Livan Hernandez Jeff Karstens WAS PIT PIT 52.153 52.153 PIT 2 7 9
29 04-07-11 Esmil Rogers Paul Maholm COL PIT PIT 51.923 51.923 COL 7 1 8
30 04-28-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Jeff Karstens SF PIT PIT 51.923 51.923 SF 5 2 7
31 06-11-11 R.A. Dickey James McDonald NYN PIT PIT 51.691 51.691 PIT 2 3 5
32 04-09-11 Greg Reynolds Charlie Morton COL PIT PIT 51.338 51.338 COL 6 4 10
33 07-09-11 Ryan Dempster Kevin Correia CHN PIT PIT 51.338 51.338 CHN 6 3 9
34 08-20-2011 Dontrelle Willis Charlie Morton CIN PIT PIT 51.338 51.338 PIT 3 5 8
35 07-18-2011 Dontrelle Willis James McDonald CIN PIT PIT 51.1 51.1 PIT 0 2 2
36 06-12-11 Chris Capuano Kevin Correia NYN PIT PIT 50.98 50.98 NYN 7 0 7
37 05-11-11 Hiroki Kuroda Paul Maholm LAN PIT PIT 50.739 50.739 LAN 2 0 2
38 09-11-11 Javier Vazquez James McDonald FLA PIT FLA 50.249 49.751 FLA 4 1 5
39 05-25-2011 Mike Minor James McDonald ATL PIT ATL 50.617 49.383 ATL 4 2 6
40 05-27-2011 Kevin Correia Doug Davis PIT CHN CHN 50.617 49.383 PIT 4 2 6
41 08-03-11 Matt Garza Charlie Morton CHN PIT CHN 50.739 49.261 CHN 1 0 1
42 06-04-11 Kyle Kendrick Charlie Morton PHI PIT PHI 50.739 49.261 PIT 3 6 9
43 07-15-2011 Jeff Karstens Brett Myers PIT HOU HOU 50.86 49.14 PIT 4 0 4
44 04-14-2011 Randy Wolf Paul Maholm MIL PIT MIL 50.98 49.02 MIL 4 1 5
45 06-22-2011 Zach Britton Kevin Correia BAL PIT BAL 51.1 48.9 PIT 4 5 9
46 08-07-11 Mat Latos Kevin Correia SD PIT SD 51.22 48.78 SD 7 3 10
47 06-01-11 Kevin Correia Chris Capuano PIT NYN NYN 51.338 48.662 PIT 9 3 12
48 06-16-2011 James McDonald Jordan Lyles PIT HOU HOU 51.574 48.426 PIT 5 4 9
49 06-07-11 Daniel Hudson Kevin Correia ARI PIT ARI 52.038 47.962 PIT 5 8 13
50 05-22-2011 Rick Porcello Paul Maholm DET PIT DET 52.038 47.962 DET 2 0 2
51 06-21-2011 Jeremy Guthrie James McDonald BAL PIT BAL 52.038 47.962 PIT 3 9 12
52 05-30-2011 Charlie Morton Dillon Gee PIT NYN NYN 52.153 47.847 NYN 3 7 10
53 06-15-2011 Charlie Morton J.A. Happ PIT HOU HOU 52.267 47.733 PIT 7 3 10
54 06-09-11 Josh Collmenter Jeff Karstens ARI PIT ARI 52.494 47.506 ARI 2 0 2
55 09-09-11 Ricky Nolasco Ross Ohlendorf FLA PIT FLA 52.494 47.506 FLA 13 4 17
56 04-13-2011 Shaun Marcum Kevin Correia MIL PIT MIL 52.494 47.506 MIL 6 0 6
57 05-16-2011 Paul Maholm John Lannan PIT WAS WAS 52.494 47.506 WAS 2 4 6
58 08-22-2011 Chris Narveson Jeff Karstens MIL PIT MIL 52.719 47.281 MIL 8 1 9
59 06-14-2011 Jeff Karstens Bud Norris PIT HOU HOU 53.162 46.838 PIT 1 0 1
60 08-21-2011 Mike Leake James McDonald CIN PIT CIN 53.162 46.838 CIN 5 4 9
61 09-24-2011 Travis Wood Brad Lincoln CIN PIT CIN 53.162 46.838 PIT 3 4 7
62 07-24-2011 Kyle Lohse Charlie Morton STL PIT STL 53.38 46.62 PIT 3 4 7
63 09-03-11 Ross Ohlendorf Casey Coleman PIT CHN CHN 53.488 46.512 PIT 7 5 12
64 04-10-11 Jhoulys Chacin James McDonald COL PIT COL 53.596 46.404 COL 6 5 11
65 05-31-2011 James McDonald R.A. Dickey PIT NYN NYN 53.811 46.189 PIT 5 1 6
66 07-16-2011 Paul Maholm Bud Norris PIT HOU HOU 53.811 46.189 HOU 4 6 10
67 07-19-2011 Mike Leake James McDonald CIN PIT CIN 53.811 46.189 PIT 0 1 1
68 05-09-11 Chad Billingsley Jeff Karstens LAN PIT LAN 54.023 45.977 PIT 1 4 5
69 09-10-11 Anibal Sanchez Jeff Locke FLA PIT FLA 54.023 45.977 FLA 3 0 3
70 04-27-2011 Madison Bumgarner James McDonald SF PIT SF 54.233 45.767 PIT 0 2 2
71 05-21-2011 Max Scherzer Kevin Correia DET PIT DET 54.338 45.662 PIT 2 6 8
72 06-02-11 Paul Maholm Mike Pelfrey PIT NYN NYN 54.545 45.455 NYN 7 9 16
73 05-20-2011 Brad Penny Jeff Karstens DET PIT DET 54.649 45.351 PIT 1 10 11
74 05-24-2011 Jair Jurrjens Charlie Morton ATL PIT ATL 54.649 45.351 ATL 2 0 2
75 06-26-2011 Andrew Miller James McDonald BOS PIT BOS 54.649 45.351 BOS 4 2 6
76 08-17-2011 Kyle Lohse Paul Maholm STL PIT STL 54.649 45.351 STL 7 2 9
77 09-12-11 Kyle Lohse Brad Lincoln STL PIT STL 54.853 45.147 PIT 5 6 11
78 07-20-2011 Johnny Cueto Jeff Karstens CIN PIT CIN 54.853 45.147 CIN 3 1 4
79 09-04-11 Charlie Morton Randy Wells PIT CHN CHN 55.056 44.944 CHN 3 6 9
80 04-21-2011 James McDonald Chris Volstad PIT FLA FLA 55.056 44.944 FLA 5 9 14
81 06-28-2011 Kevin Correia Jo-Jo Reyes PIT TOR TOR 55.257 44.743 PIT 7 6 13
82 07-17-2011 Kevin Correia Wandy Rodriguez PIT HOU HOU 55.357 44.643 PIT 7 5 12
83 04-08-11 Jorge de la Rosa Ross Ohlendorf COL PIT COL 55.556 44.444 PIT 3 5 8
84 08-29-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Wandy Rodriguez PIT HOU HOU 55.654 44.346 HOU 4 7 11
85 07-22-2011 Chris Carpenter Paul Maholm STL PIT STL 55.85 44.15 STL 6 4 10
86 08-19-2011 Homer Bailey Kevin Correia CIN PIT CIN 55.85 44.15 CIN 11 8 19
87 08-15-2011 Jake Westbrook James McDonald STL PIT STL 56.044 43.956 PIT 2 6 8
88 05-28-2011 Paul Maholm Randy Wells PIT CHN CHN 56.236 43.764 PIT 10 0 10
89 06-25-2011 Tim Wakefield Jeff Karstens BOS PIT BOS 56.427 43.573 PIT 4 6 10
90 08-24-2011 Shaun Marcum Aaron Thompson MIL PIT MIL 56.427 43.573 PIT 0 2 2
91 07-01-11 Charlie Morton Tom Gorzelanny PIT WAS WAS 56.616 43.384 WAS 1 2 3
92 04-26-2011 Matt Cain Charlie Morton SF PIT SF 56.616 43.384 SF 3 2 5
93 05-29-2011 Jeff Karstens Ryan Dempster PIT CHN CHN 56.616 43.384 CHN 2 3 5
94 07-23-2011 Jaime Garcia Kevin Correia STL PIT STL 56.616 43.384 STL 9 1 10
95 09-23-2011 Edinson Volquez Jeff Locke CIN PIT CIN 56.71 43.29 PIT 3 4 7
96 04-05-11 James McDonald Kyle McClellan PIT STL STL 57.265 42.735 STL 2 3 5
97 05-04-11 Kevin Correia Clayton Richard PIT SD SD 57.537 42.463 PIT 7 4 11
98 06-30-2011 Jeff Karstens Brett Cecil PIT TOR TOR 57.537 42.463 PIT 6 2 8
99 08-23-2011 Marco Estrada Ross Ohlendorf MIL PIT MIL 57.627 42.373 MIL 11 3 14
100 08-16-2011 Chris Carpenter Jeff Karstens STL PIT STL 57.895 42.105 PIT 4 5 9
101 09-14-2011 Edwin Jackson Charlie Morton STL PIT STL 57.895 42.105 STL 3 2 5
102 04-16-2011 James McDonald Mike Leake PIT CIN CIN 57.983 42.017 CIN 2 11 13
103 06-17-2011 Kevin Correia Josh Tomlin PIT CLE CLE 58.506 41.494 CLE 1 5 6
104 07-03-11 Kevin Correia Jason Marquis PIT WAS WAS 58.592 41.408 PIT 10 2 12
105 08-10-11 Jeff Karstens Jonathan Sanchez PIT SF SF 58.592 41.408 PIT 9 2 11
106 06-19-2011 Jeff Karstens Justin Masterson PIT CLE CLE 58.592 41.408 CLE 2 5 7
107 06-18-2011 Paul Maholm Carlos Carrasco PIT CLE CLE 58.678 41.322 CLE 1 5 6
108 04-04-11 Charlie Morton Kyle Lohse PIT STL STL 59.016 40.984 PIT 4 3 7
109 05-02-11 James McDonald Aaron Harang PIT SD SD 59.1 40.9 PIT 4 3 7
110 05-18-2011 Charlie Morton Bronson Arroyo PIT CIN CIN 59.184 40.816 PIT 5 0 5
111 09-17-2011 James McDonald Ted Lilly PIT LAN LAN 59.267 40.733 LAN 1 6 7
112 08-28-2011 Jeff Karstens Kyle Lohse PIT STL STL 59.432 40.568 STL 4 7 11
113 09-18-2011 Brad Lincoln Chad Billingsley PIT LAN LAN 59.432 40.568 LAN 1 15 16
114 06-03-11 Cole Hamels Jeff Karstens PHI PIT PHI 59.596 40.404 PIT 1 2 3
115 05-14-2011 Jeff Karstens Chris Narveson PIT MIL MIL 59.596 40.404 MIL 2 8 10
116 07-02-11 James McDonald Livan Hernandez PIT WAS WAS 60 40 PIT 5 3 8
117 05-03-11 Jeff Karstens Mat Latos PIT SD SD 60 40 SD 5 6 11
118 05-13-2011 James McDonald Yovanni Gallardo PIT MIL MIL 60.552 39.448 MIL 2 5 7
119 07-02-11 Brad Lincoln John Lannan PIT WAS WAS 60.63 39.37 WAS 4 3 7
120 04-20-2011 Charlie Morton Ricky Nolasco PIT FLA FLA 60.63 39.37 FLA 0 6 6
121 08-26-2011 James McDonald Jake Westbrook PIT STL STL 60.707 39.293 STL 4 5 9
122 07-28-2011 Kevin Correia Derek Lowe PIT ATL ATL 60.861 39.139 PIT 5 2 7
123 08-13-2011 Kevin Correia Marco Estrada PIT MIL MIL 60.861 39.139 MIL 0 1 1
124 08-25-2011 Charlie Morton Edwin Jackson PIT STL STL 60.861 39.139 STL 4 8 12
125 04-03-11 Ross Ohlendorf Matt Garza PIT CHN CHN 61.089 38.911 PIT 5 4 9
126 04-18-2011 Kevin Correia Travis Wood PIT CIN CIN 61.165 38.835 PIT 9 3 12
127 09-21-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Wade Miley PIT ARI ARI 61.24 38.76 ARI 5 8 13
128 06-24-2011 Jon Lester Paul Maholm BOS PIT BOS 61.315 38.685 PIT 1 3 4
129 09-13-2011 Chris Carpenter Jeff Karstens STL PIT STL 61.464 38.536 STL 6 4 10
130 04-15-2011 Charlie Morton Bronson Arroyo PIT CIN CIN 61.538 38.462 PIT 6 1 7
131 04-30-2011 Paul Maholm Jason Hammel PIT COL COL 61.832 38.168 COL 1 4 5
132 05-15-2011 Kevin Correia Zach Greinke PIT MIL MIL 62.264 37.736 MIL 6 9 15
133 04-17-2011 Jeff Karstens Edinson Volquez PIT CIN CIN 62.335 37.665 PIT 7 6 13
134 04-01-11 Kevin Correia Ryan Dempster PIT CHN CHN 62.547 37.453 PIT 6 3 9
135 07-27-2011 Paul Maholm Jair Jurrjens PIT ATL ATL 62.547 37.453 ATL 1 2 3
136 08-08-11 Charlie Morton Ryan Vogelsong PIT SF SF 62.756 37.244 PIT 5 0 5
137 06-29-2011 Paul Maholm Brandon Morrow PIT TOR TOR 62.894 37.106 TOR 1 2 3
138 08-09-11 James McDonald Madison Bumgarner PIT SF SF 63.031 36.969 SF 0 6 6
139 04-06-11 Kevin Correia Chris Carpenter PIT STL STL 63.504 36.496 PIT 3 1 4
140 05-19-2011 James McDonald Johnny Cueto PIT CIN CIN 63.57 36.43 PIT 5 3 8
141 08-14-2011 Charlie Morton Shaun Marcum PIT MIL MIL 63.57 36.43 MIL 1 2 3
142 09-02-11 Jeff Karstens Ryan Dempster PIT CHN CHN 63.834 36.166 PIT 3 1 4
143 04-02-11 Paul Maholm Carlos Zambrano PIT CHN CHN 63.964 36.036 CHN 3 5 8
144 07-26-2011 Jeff Karstens Tommy Hanson PIT ATL ATL 63.964 36.036 ATL 3 4 7
145 09-16-2011 Jeff Locke Hiroki Kuroda PIT LAN LAN 64.093 35.907 LAN 2 7 9
146 09-15-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Dana Eveland PIT LAN LAN 64.286 35.714 PIT 6 2 8
147 04-29-2011 Kevin Correia Jhoulys Chacin PIT COL COL 64.349 35.651 PIT 3 0 3
148 09-27-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Randy Wolf PIT MIL MIL 64.349 35.651 MIL 4 6 10
149 06-05-11 Roy Halladay James McDonald PHI PIT PHI 64.476 35.524 PHI 7 3 10
150 05-01-11 Charlie Morton Ubaldo Jimenez PIT COL COL 64.539 35.461 PIT 8 4 12
151 04-19-2011 Paul Maholm Josh Johnson PIT FLA FLA 64.727 35.273 FLA 0 6 6
152 07-25-2011 James McDonald Tim Hudson PIT ATL ATL 64.851 35.149 PIT 3 1 4
153 08-22-2011 Zach Greinke Brad Lincoln MIL PIT MIL 64.851 35.149 PIT 2 9 11
154 07-31-2011 Jeff Karstens Vance Worley PIT PHI PHI 65.517 34.483 PHI 5 6 11
155 09-26-2011 Charlie Morton Shaun Marcum PIT MIL MIL 65.753 34.247 PIT 9 8 17
156 08-12-11 Paul Maholm Zach Greinke PIT MIL MIL 66.102 33.898 MIL 2 7 9
157 09-20-2011 Charlie Morton Daniel Hudson PIT ARI ARI 66.387 33.613 PIT 5 3 8
158 09-19-2011 Jeff Karstens Ian Kennedy PIT ARI ARI 68.051 31.949 ARI 0 1 1
159 08-27-2011 Jeff Karstens Chris Carpenter PIT STL STL 68.75 31.25 PIT 7 0 7
160 07-30-2011 James McDonald Cliff Lee PIT PHI PHI 70.76 29.24 PHI 4 7 11
161 07-29-2011 Charlie Morton Roy Halladay PIT PHI PHI 72.299 27.701 PHI 3 10 13
162 09-28-2011 Jeff Locke Zach Greinke PIT MIL MIL 73.684 26.316 MIL 3 7 10

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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