A Premature Look at Rule 5 issues

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 10:30 AM EST

While most people out there are drooling at those exciting free agent possibilities, yawn, I have been worried for some time now about who we may lose in the rule 5 draft at the expense of picking up a stud infielder like Clint Barmes to play Shortstop for a month prior to losing his job to Chase d'Arnaud or Pedro Ciriaco. So after patiently awaiting an article on the subject from pirates prospects for 2 months, I decided enough was enough and figured I'd take a stab at it.

To start, let's use the Pirates Prospects current projected 40-man roster and work from there. They are projecting five open spots (for protecting rule 5 elgibles) with 3 fringe non tender candidates. I agree with the concept that the additional 3 at the bottom will not be with the team, or 3 similar guys will not make it. Additionally, they currently have Garret Jones being tendered and no Derrek Lee or other 1B, so let's call it 8 with 1 reliever 1 starter and 1 catcher being dropped from the current 40 man. That leaves 8 spots to protect or to sign free agents or draft a rule 5 guy or to grab a random stiff off of waivers.

Next, I generated a list of rule 5 eligibles using these two previous postings:
Tim Alderson, Calvin Anderson, Ramon Cabrera, Fraylin Campos, Michael Colla, Tyler Cox, Emmanuel De Leon, Jeremy Farrell, Zachary Foster, Matt Hague, Andrew Lambo, Quincy Latimore, Brian Leach, Brett Lorin, Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer, Diego Moreno, Rogelio Noris, Rudy Owens, Aaron Pribanic, Jhonatan Ramos, David Rubinstein, Hunter Strickland, Cole White, Justin Wilson, Eric Avila, Brian Bocock, Jesus Brito, Brad Chalk, Michael Crotta, Michael Dubee, Miles Durham, Brian Friday, Noah Krol, Mike Loree, Jairo Marquez, Matt McSwain, Miguel Mendez, Eliecer Navarro, Anthony Norman, Josh Rodriguez, Yunesky Sanchez, Brett Sinkbeil, Wyatt Toregas, Andy Vasquez, Kris Watts, Duke Welker

Then I ranked the top 8 in order of preference:

Starling Marte, Rudy Owens, Andrew Lambo, Justin Wilson, Jordy Mercer, Matt Hague, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Leach.

That leaves us with a ton of talent unprotected in the rule 5 draft. Here's hoping we don't bring in some stiff, and that we use a mix of these rule 5 guys to pick up some talent in a trade. I would prefer that route over signing Cliff Barmes, aka trading a prospect for a journeyman.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

I thought Cabrera wasn't eligible

If he is, I’d probably protect him over Leach or Lambo. (I’d also have Mercer waaaaay in front of Lambo — if we don’t protect Mercer I think he gets picked and sticks on a roster as a utility IF.)

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 AM EST reply actions

He shouldn't be.

Signed in 2008 as an 18-year-old.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

also please can we drop Matt Pagnozzi?

Barajas/McKenry in the bigs and Fryer at AAA with Sanchez (or Some Dude who isn’t on the 40-man) is good enough — we don’t need to lose a prospect to keep a fourth catcher.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 11, 2011 10:46 AM EST reply actions

+1

by BadAndy on Nov 11, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

My guess is that we will DFA him

when the big glut of DFAs hit later this month. I think they want to keep him around, and with everyone dropping guys to clean up the 40-man, there is some opportunity to “sneak” a guy through (I’m not sure how much sneaking Pagz can do, or needs to do)

by Wizard of Woz on Nov 11, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

I don't believe Lambo or Hague need to be protected

Teams generally don’t use Rule 5 picks on struggling AA corner OFs or fringy 26 year old 1B prospects. There ’s nowhere to hide a guy like that on a modern MLB roster with 11 or 12 pitchers.

Pitchers are a lot more likely to get selected and make it through the year on the MLB roster, so I’d consider protecting guys like Lorin, Crotta, maybe even Diego Moreno over either of those guys.

Wouldn’t worry too much about Cabrera getting scooped up, no one is going to go through the season with a 5’7" A ball catcher as their backup.

by maguro on Nov 11, 2011 10:48 AM EST reply actions 3 recs

+1

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 11, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

So you would take a 25 year old reliever that can’t get out of A+ without being terrible over a 26 year old 1B that has put up solid numbers his entire career? I would think that Hague would get picked up in the rule 5 much quicker as he has shown that he can actually play ball at a high level and has shown he is ready for the bigs for a full season now.

As far as Lambo, I’m hoping the roster him and he has a good season and rebounds as a top prospect that he once was.

by pskell02 on Nov 11, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

to be fair

while Crotta wasn’t even on my list. Colla was. He was at AAA last season. Lorin would be AA as a starter next year, and Moreno was up in Altoona this season throwing a high 90s fastball. But as mentioned below. We lost Shelton at the same age

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think Moreno is more likely to get picked up than Hague or Lambo

He throws hard, some pitching coach might think he can fix him and you can hide him at the back of your bullpen.

I mean, Hague wasn’t protected last year and nobody picked him last year, Adcock got taken instead. Hague isn’t really any more exciting than he was last year so I don’t see why he’d get picked up this year.

by maguro on Nov 11, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Hague is first time eligible

So he wasn’t protected last season, but it was because he didn’t have to be.

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

OK thanks

Seems like he’s been around forever.

Anyway, guys with Hague’s profile hardly ever get picked in Rule 5, let alone make it through the season, so I wouldn’t use a spot on him.

Hague has been a consistently above average hitter in the minors, but he’s always been a little old for his league and 1B prospects have to really mash in the minors, not just hit well, for MLB teams to take them seriously. So I don’t think he’ll get taken and don’t think the Pirates would be terribly heartbroken if he did.

I could be wrong, though. It’s happened before!

by maguro on Nov 11, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

if they didn't resign Lee or other 1B FA

I think they would like to play Hague and Jones at 1B.

by taiwania on Nov 11, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll go even farther and say that Duke Welker is more likely to be chosen than Hague or Lambo.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

He's also more likely to be useful

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Nov 11, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

Welker

was the guy I had as 9, Moreno as 10

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

Tuna is right, especially in the use of the word "generally."

Teams can hide / bury pitchers much easier than position players.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 11, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Gah.

“… much ~~easier~~ more easily…”

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 11, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

So you would take a 25 year old reliever that can’t get out of A+ without being terrible over a 26 year old 1B that has put up solid numbers his entire career?

Sure. If you need a mid/late-20s 1B with solid-but-unexceptional numbers, you can get tons of them as minor league FA this time of year.

Do you think that Hague is clearly better than a guy like Mauro Gomez or Chris Carter? I don’t.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

cough cough

Christ Shelton. Cough Cough

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Shelton was only able to stick because he had the ability to hide on Detroit’s bench as a third catcher.

To find the last pure 1B taken in the R5, you have to go all the way back to Jay Gibbons in 2000.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

He played mostly OF for the O's

so it’s even further back.

by Mr. E on Nov 11, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Spot on

by Wizard of Woz on Nov 11, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

"Tough financial decisions"?

Is it possible that when Huntington said that the reason we are not picking up the options on guys like maholm, jones, ect. is so that we can protect more of these prospects? I know their is a lot of disagreement in not picking up the option of guys like maholm but if the reasoning behind it allows us to protect more prospects than I am all for it.

by donny24 on Nov 11, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions

yup

when posting this I had two things in mind, 1. point out the benefit of having open roster space, 2. make people think about the fact that we probably have to protect Justin Wilson, Pribanic, Owens, Marte and Mercer, or we will lose them

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

there's only so far you can protect prospects

I mean clear all the space you want by removing the maholms and the jones, but you are going to need a 25 man roster in Pittsburgh. If you are protecting a bunch of AA/AAA guys that aren’t ready for the show, you aint gonna be able to use them to play the games. As a result, you’ll need to pass them through waivers at a later point.

by BurgherKing on Nov 11, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

True

That is true! I sort of thought of that after I posted, but there are some guys that I think could be called up and given playing time to see if they are capable of playing every day in the bigs. D’ Arnaud being one, Jeff Locke, Hague being a couple others. Let these guys play next year and see what they have. They are going to be on your 40 man roster anyway so use them instead of bringing guys like maholm, cedeno, and jones back and use their roster spots for other prospects. I mean lets be honest…unless we go out and make some big splash in free agency this team just isn’t quite ready to compete yet. We know what we will get from jones, cedeno, and maholm and that is another sub .500 season. Maybe the young guys will surprise when given a chance at playing everyday in their place. There is really nothing to lose

by donny24 on Nov 11, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

My guess...

…for it’s worth (which isn’t much):

Marte, Owens and Mercer are locks to be added. I’d be surprised if Wilson and even Hague weren’t added as well.

I agree with the points made above on the likelihood of slipping Hauge through, but if Derrek Lee walks, their options at first suddenly become mighty thin without him. They might not want to take the risk.

Other than those 5, I’m not sure there’s anyone on that list that could get scooped up that would cause NH to lose sleep.

Jose Tabata is the truth

The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.

by Raybin on Nov 11, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions

The fact that they didn't bring Hague up in September

makes me think that they are planning on leaving him off of the 40 man and hoping he makes it through.

by Wizard of Woz on Nov 11, 2011 2:22 PM EST reply actions

Good point

Jose Tabata is the truth

The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.

by Raybin on Nov 11, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with this.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

Agree to disagree

My main reason for Hague being on there (I excluded Calvin Anderson) is because I think he ends up on there as the second firstbaseman. I also think Hague stayed down to give Pearce one last shot

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Nov 11, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Hague will be protected

Because right now he is our “2nd string 1B” behind Garrett Jones, so I think we will need him over the course of the season. People keep saying he is “ONLY hitting above-average in the minors” even if he hits .270 with 10 HR’s, that is still a huge improvement over last year’s 1B production (forget Derrek Lee, he’s not coming back, he has no interest)

by 2010 will be the year on Nov 11, 2011 3:54 PM EST reply actions

You also have to consider

if we expose him to the rule 5, a team has to keep him on their roster all year or offer him back. If we roster him and then want to make space later, a team can just stash him in AAA until he’s out of options.

He’s far more likely to be claimed in the second scenario. The same line of reasoning applies to all the other marginal P prospects on the list who probably won’t be 40 man’d.

by Mr. E on Nov 11, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions