Pirates Top 20 Prospects
Our look at the Pirates top 20. Would like to hear your thoughts.
6 months ago
MJMars
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Interesting
always good to see another top 20 list. Please don’t take any of the following as an insult.
This is a very unique list. I like uniqueness more than detest it.
I’m really surprised to see Clay Holmes and Jose Osuna that high. Holmes got a sizeable bonus, but is so raw and is such a risk, he can’t be that high in my opinion. Osuna put up good rookie numbers, but he came out of nowhere and no one else is even talking about him. He’s interesting, but not a top 10 prospect if you ask me.
Kyle McPherson, Jarek Cunningham, and Nick Kingham are pretty big omissions, especially McPherson. Check out his numbers in A+ and AA ball and reports have him sitting in the low to mid 90’s with very good secondaries.
I like the high Grossman placement, Marte over Bell, and while I don’t agree, I like the guts of putting Allie down that low. His arm is so good that it’s hard to knock him big time, but if you don’t believe in him, by all means take off points for his complete lack of control and command.
Overall nice list, but I think Osuna and McPherson are just absolutely crazy placements/omissions, plus the other ones (although not to the same degree) that absolutely confuse me. They don’t ruin the list, not even close, but they are certainly head-scratchers.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 14, 2011 10:08 PM EST reply actions
Cunningham not being there and Holmes being pretty high don’t bother me. Holmes is further along with his stuff than most of the HS pitchers we’ve been drafting.
I wouldn’t have Osuna that high. I’m not sure how much projection he has.
I think Kingham and McPherson should be in there. I won’t be surprised to see McPherson beat the Altoona Four (well, except Locke) to the majors.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
McPherson
has to be in there. He’s a top 10 prospect. Top 12 at worst.
Would Cunningham not be in your top 20? I have him 8th or something like that. I’m a huge believer, both seeing him, and because of some trends he put up before getting hurt. Man, he needs to stay healthy.
I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with Holmes that high per se, it just strikes me as odd. I don’t see how you could put him ahead of Kingham for example. Kingham has similar, if not better stuff right now and had a solid year at State College.
Re-reading my post, I came off as a douche. I didn’t mean to. The list is great. Time and thought were obviously put into it, and its great to have another perspective. More than anything I guess, is I’d like to see what MJMars has to say about the players I mentioned. I’m not saying that the list is wrong; I was just curious.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 15, 2011 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
It is difficult to balance the upside vs performance
I admit to favoring the upside, hence why guys like Holmes and Osuna are high. McPherson on the other hand does not have that kind of upside. He was probably no. 21 and I ended up leaving him off because he was 23 and still in High-A (though pitched a chunk of the year in AA) with average stuff. I am probably lower on him than some, but I do think he can be a decent starter. I do like other low floor pitchers in the system better than McPherson, however.
My upside comment may seem contradictory with Allie, given the heat, but I see his upside has a closer. At the end of the day, someone with an upside of a good reliever and weak performance will not do a whole lot for me. That said, if he ever throws strikes, the fastball will be near impossible to hit.
Thanks for the comments.
minorleaguerundown.com
twitter.com/milbrundown
I'm out of the loop on Osuna
But wouldn’t a converted pitcher be kind of a shot in the dark instead of a guy with a high upside? I realize he put up some nice numbers in RC ball, but does he truly have that much potential?
considering
Osuna is only 18, I don’t think it really matters. Look at his page on Pirates Prospects, it does him more justice than I can. http://players.piratesprospects.com/2011/06/jose-ozuna.html
by PuncSpeedChunk on Nov 15, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Fair
enough, but if you like upside, you need to have Cunningham on here :P.
Although his K rate issues could just be an iteration of Allie’s weak performance. Just take a glance at that ISO though.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 15, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
other than a quick bat, what is Cunningham's upside?
hes not fast. hes not found a position where his glove is not a liability. his body isnt projectable, meaning he probably wont fill out. his patience at the plate isnt good and a very good chance it doesnt improve.
i think the chance of HRs from a middle infielder has you slightly blinded about Jarek.
hopefully you both prove me wrong.
other than a quick bat, what is Cunningham’s upside?
Above-average raw power from a middle infielder. That’s very valuable.
his body isnt projectable, meaning he probably wont fill out.
Not sure what gives you that idea.
but hes NOT a middle infielder. his defense is proving this.
and he looks really lean. not skinny, mind you. i dont see him generating any power unless he changes his approach.
by white angus on Nov 17, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
The
dude put up a .258 ISO last year. That would have been tops in the FSL had he qualified. That was at an age-appropriate level. The dude has massive power potential.
Also, check his AFL stats. He actually walked some, which is encouraging.
In conclusion, I’d argue he probably has above-average power for a middle infielder, right now, like talking about MLB players. The dude has a gorgeous swing, elite bat speed, and it generates hard contact.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 17, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
ive never said he didnt have power potential
but hes NOT a middle infielder. once they figure out a position, and then we’ll see how he hits in AA…
then we will get a better idea of what he brings to the table.
ive seen the bat speed myself, and i agree with you
but im seeing lots of swings and misses in his future
Right
I kinda misread your comment. I thought you were saying, “ya he has a quick bat, so what?” Instead, I believe you were saying “Ya he’s got a great bat, but that’s about it, what’s the big deal.”
To that I say, I still think he’s athletic enough to be a good defensive LF or RF, where he will most likely end up. If he has the arm, he might be able to stick at 3B, or if he really works, he could end up at 2B, sort of like Neil Walker. In fact, without breaking down the stats exactly, Neil Walker might be a good comp, and that’s a valuable player.
Looking down at Epoc’s post, I basically agree completely, except I see more power in the 80th percentile. More like .270/.320/.480. (I think he will walk a bit less). The dude absolutely crushes the ball.
A 95% (I remember getting into a debate about percentiles etc, but I’m basically saying he comes pretty damn close to reaching a REASONABLE ceiling) is something like .290/.340/.550 or so. That’s nearly .900 OPS from a corner OF that should play better than average defense. That’s a very good player.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 18, 2011 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
just curious
where would a .900 OPS 2B with below average defense rate in the NL?
Better offense than, and defense on par with, Dan Uggla?
by insane_sanity on Nov 18, 2011 8:40 AM EST up reply actions
he'd be incredibly valuable, wouldn't he?
In 2010, when Uggla put up an .875 OPS (in a better offensive environment than there was in 2011), he was worth almost five wins.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 18, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Cunningham's upside
I think a reasonable 80th percentile upside for Cunningham is something like .270/.330/.450. Even if he has to move to the corner outfield, which he probably will, that’s a decent line. He’d be Jason Kubel with (much) better defense.
I’m not sure why you’re so quick to dismiss plus power, a sweet swing, and good bat speed. What’s Bryce Harper without plus power and great bat speed?
is that a cunningham/harper comparison? really???
thats like comparing wonder bread with a ciabbatta roll. the only thing in common? they are both BREAD!
im not dismissing plus power or a sweet swing. in fact, if you read what ive said, his swing is great. the bat speed is the best ive seen from a pirate in years.
ive also seen him swing and miss badly against A ball pitchers… badly….
if he changes his approach, cuts down on the swing, he has a future.
I don’t think he needs to change his swing or his approach, personally. I think he just needs to get better at recognizing pitches, which I am optimistic that he might be able to do, considering that he’s missed so much development time due to injury (i.e., I think it’s very possible that he’s bad at recognizing pitches only because he’s very inexperienced for a 21-year-old).
how is he inexperienced? hes been playing ball just as long as other 21 year olds.
look, if cunningham can improve on his numbers, like marte, despite his contact issues, then i will lighten up about him.
i really do think that people on here got all giddy with his HR numbers from the middle infield position without looking at the complete package.
yes, hes a legitimate prospect, but hes a long ways away and personally i think he’ll never dent the pirates lineup
inexperience
Injuries have severely limited his actual on-field experience. He missed his senior year of HS, all of 2009, and half of 2011 with injury. Obviously, the injury history is a concern, but the other side of that is that he hasn’t seen as much action as, for instance, Grossman. Think about the strides Grossman made this year, then think about the fact that Cunningham has fewer pro PA now than Grossman had at this time last season.
The only time I discount plus power, a sweet swing and good bat speed is when a player cannot square up the ball against live pitching.
by insane_sanity on Nov 18, 2011 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
not crazy about it
The top seven seem reasonable, but after that there are a lot of head-scratchers. I agree with some of WTM and MCTruth’s sentiments: Holmes and Osuna too high; McPherson, Cunningham, and Kingham troubling omissions. In addition, Moreno doesn’t belong in the top 20, and Allie is way too low. On a more “micro” level, I have trouble understanding certain decisions – e.g., why would Von Rosenberg rank above Locke? Why Mercer ahead of Eric Fryer? How can Moreno be above Allie? etc. Decent list overall, but a lot of things that don’t make sense to me.
Errr
no Matt Curry or Nick Kingham. Those two are the biggest omissions. When Kingham dominates WV this season and is at Bradenton by seasons end, I’ll get to say I told you so lol.
I liked the top 7 though, as always, i enjoy reading top prospect lists, so good stuff.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
I’m not sure I’d put Curry in the top 30.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
yeah
Leaving Curry out of the top 20 seems reasonable to me.
He's
in the back end of my top 20.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 15, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
I have hovering around top 15. I guess I am high on some of our hitters since they are few and far between…idk….
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
If he's capable of hovering, you might move him up a few slots
That sounds pretty athletic.
by maguro on Nov 15, 2011 5:40 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
yep, rec.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 15, 2011 7:22 AM EST up reply actions
Can't quibble with the top 7
Don’t disagree with ranking Allie that low. If his command & control improves this season, he could make a jump all the way to 8-10.
I don’t know enough about Holmes and Osuna to speak intelligently about whether they’re too high or not….so I won’t.
I wouldn’t put Bryan Morris and Jordy Mercer on the list at all at the expense of Kyle McPherson and Jarek Cunningham.
I’d give an honorable mention to Brooks Pounders. If he can ever get his goofy pitching motion smoothed out, don’t sleep on him.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
right now, i would put mercer above cunningham
much better with the glove, similar power for middle infielders, Mercer better eye for now.
other than ridiculous bat speed, cunningham seems a long way away
so do i
his Kper9 jumped while his walks stayed very low. could be McPherson like very soon once the HR numbers come back down.
His
heat needs to improve for him to really take a jump. His K/9 and lack of walks is from pounding the zone with a mediocre fastball. That’s always why the HR rate is so high.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 16, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
right now, i would say that ZVR's fastball is around Lincoln's.
i wouldnt call it mediocre, but i wouldnt call it stellar either. doesnt mean he cant get better. karstens tops out around 91 too.
Lincoln
can touch the mid 90’s, and sits in the low 90’s and has a very good curveball to go with it. ZVR sits in the mid to high 80’s and barely touches 90.
RH’s with that kind of heat don’t last long in the big leagues. Karstens is in the exception to the rule.
Luckily, ZVR is still young and projectable. Plus, maybe he can turn into an exception if his fastball doesn’t jump in velocity. Until then, however, he’s more intriguing than exciting.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 16, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
i would argue that lincoln cant hit mid nineties... his arm is not what it once was
i should have said Karstens in the first place. the uptick in ZVR’s Kper9 without gaining in BBs shows me that hes learning to put guys away despite the lack of a dominating heater.
for the record, 60% of the pirates rotation lived in the upper 80s. no reason to think that ZVR cant do the same.
You
could be right about the uptick in K/9, but I maintain he’s just absolutely pounding the zone. In doing so, you will end up in decent strikeout numbers, low walk numbers, and getting pounded. All three things happened to ZVR last year.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 16, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
i would argue that lincoln cant hit mid nineties… his arm is not what it once was
From his velocity charts, it looks like he can touch the mid 90s occasionally, but is more often in the 90-93 range.
yeah, and justin wilson can hit 99
hmpffff!
by white angus on Nov 17, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Heh
Lincoln has a better fastball than ZVR right now, and its by a solid margin. For the hate on Lincoln over the years, I still think he can settle into a very good #4 starter for the next several years, and that’s a damn useful player. I think he might have a bit more upside than that too.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 18, 2011 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
there is no solid margin between the 2 fastballs
lincoln throws harder yes, but not by much. ZVR is not Alderson.
more and more reports are popping up that his peak velocity already has spiked somewhat. I think I’ve seen as high as 93
For
ZVR? That would be amazing. Any links? He wasn’t hitting that last season at any time from the info I gathered.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 16, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
This post alone
says “His fastball sits in the low-90′s”
I don’t remember the other ones specifically. One time, I think, was a first-hand report from WTM.
Right
well come next spring we can hopefully get some accurate reports. I want to see touches 95-96, sits 92-93. Then I’ll start getting excited.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 16, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
wow, yer picky when it comes to ZVR
other than his HR numbers, he actually improved last season. thats good enough for me right now.
His
numbers improved yes, but I’d argue the lower you are in the minors, the more scouting reports matter and the less numbers matter.
A ball is still pretty low down the ladder, and the scouting reports (reliable reports I saw last year – not saying you aren’t reliable Mr. E, I just don’t remember ZVR ever sitting in the low 90’s) aren’t too kind to Mr. Rosenberg.
Look, over the past several months, I’ve defended ZVR. I remember in particular getting into a friendly and intelligent debate over it with Charlie, who sees ZVR as a fairly big disappointment so far (feel free to correct me Charlie if that’s an inaccurate characterization of your opinion). The thing is, on one hand, Charlie is right.
We paid ZVR 1.3 million dollars so we could be thrilled when we saw his fastball jump in velocity and sit in the 93-94 range, his curveball tighten, and him develop a plus change-up, molding him into a #2 starter. That’s the hope when you expect when you pay a guy 7 figures out of high school. A #2-3 starter, with the outside chance of his fastball jumping to where it sits 96-97, and suddenly you have Matt Moore.
ZVR’s fastball hasn’t done that yet. The saving grace is the word ‘yet.’ ZVR has just finished his second year and will play basically all of next season as a 21 year-old. However, there needs to be a velo spike to take him out of back-end starter purgatory. If he ends up as a #5 pitcher, I’ll be happy. That will be a good return. However, to really make that 1.3 million dollar investment feel good, I want him to be a filthy #3, out pitching his spot behind Cole and Taillon in 2014 or 15.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 18, 2011 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'm plenty reliable before about 9pm or so
but those weren’t my words, and I only said he touched the low-90’s, afaik he still sits about 90mph. I’ve never seen the guy throw at all.
I seem to have been wrong about WTM too so I apologize for putting those words in his mouth. I still have unjustitfied like for the kid though, it’s probably just his awesome name.
No
no. I understand. I’m just saying, my recollection is different, and I wanted to make sure it didn’t seem like I was insulting you.
Hope I didn’t. I’m praying that because of the joke that my hope is correct.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 18, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
so Cunningham is exempt from the low minors standard?
yet ZVR is not? is it because hes a pitcher? Or is it because you so want Cunningham to bring that magical power of his to 2B in pittsburgh?
mancrush? possibly?
>:-D
Cunningham
is another level up the ladder. But, more importantly, his scouting report jives with his numbers, unlike (in my opinion) ZVR’s. Cunningham has elite bat speed to go with a compact, smooth swing.
I will agree with you, perhaps I have a mancrush, but I do believe there is a slight difference. I will point Cunningham does have a massive bust rate to go with that ceiling, limiting his “prospect status.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 18, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
Maybe its because ZVR looked so bad early that he had nowhere to go but up. Anyway, as far as progress they made over the course of the year, I’d say ZVR’s is bigger. I’m more enthused about his last 10 starts than the couple of extra walks Cunningham drew over the course of a few weeks.
They’re very different types of prospects which makes them very interesting to follow closely.
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