FanPost

Tell me why I'm wrong

First, tell me what happens in this situation. Gerrit Cole wants $8 million and slot is $4 million. He says he won't sign for $4 million. Will the Pirates pay $12 ($8 million plus $4 million in tax) plus a first round choice for him? No. Will the Mariners pay $13 million (assuming slot is $3.5 million for the second choice). I'd say not. Will the Yankees pay $15 million ($8 plus $7 million in tax) plus a first round choice? I suppose they might, but you can sign a good major league free agent for that. My take would be that Cole would sign for $4 million, and if he won't, the Pirates will know it in advance. He's going to know that most of the teams are going to ask, "Will you sign for slot?" If he won't they won't draft him, and slot is lower the longer he waits.

So yes, it changes the draft, because you won't give a Von Rosenburg $1 million, and he'll go to college. But the real change is in the international arena.

For the 2012-13 signing period, every team will a pool of $2.9 million to spend on international free agents. Starting in 2013-14, the pools will be based on the prior season's winning percentage, with a range of approximately $1.7 million to $4.8 million. So, in all likelihood, the Yankees and the Red Sox will be limited to $1.7 million. This will have two effects. First, teams will be more reluctant to give big bonuses. Second, the big money teams will not be able to outspend their small-revenue rivals. Many of the teams that sign US free agents turn to Latin America to make up for their loss of draft choices and late selections in the draft. For example, last year the Yankees' first pick was the 51st selection, and their next was the 81st. Take a look at the list below. Note who's at the top and who's at the bottom. 

My take is that amateurs will get smaller bonuses and lots of teams will be moving to beef up their Latin American operations. Teams with bad records will get extra high draft choices and won't have to out-bid the Yankees to sign Latin players. Why am I wrong?

International Signees 1n 2010 Top 30 Prospects

Team

Number

Yankees

12

Rockies

11

Mets

10

Phillies

10

Braves

9

Cubs

9

Mariners

9

Rangers

9

RedSox

9

Twins

9

Indians

8

Reds

8

Tigers

8

Giants

7

Astros

6

Athletics

6

BlueJays

6

Royals

6

Padres

6

WhiteSox

6

Angels

5

Cardinals

5

D-Backs

5

Dodgers

5

Nationals

4

Rays

4

Brewers

3

Orioles

3

Marlins

2

Pirates

2

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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