Tell me why I'm wrong

by Roberto on Nov 23, 2011 12:40 PM EST

First, tell me what happens in this situation. Gerrit Cole wants $8 million and slot is $4 million. He says he won't sign for $4 million. Will the Pirates pay $12 ($8 million plus $4 million in tax) plus a first round choice for him? No. Will the Mariners pay $13 million (assuming slot is $3.5 million for the second choice). I'd say not. Will the Yankees pay $15 million ($8 plus $7 million in tax) plus a first round choice? I suppose they might, but you can sign a good major league free agent for that. My take would be that Cole would sign for $4 million, and if he won't, the Pirates will know it in advance. He's going to know that most of the teams are going to ask, "Will you sign for slot?" If he won't they won't draft him, and slot is lower the longer he waits.

So yes, it changes the draft, because you won't give a Von Rosenburg $1 million, and he'll go to college. But the real change is in the international arena.

For the 2012-13 signing period, every team will a pool of $2.9 million to spend on international free agents. Starting in 2013-14, the pools will be based on the prior season's winning percentage, with a range of approximately $1.7 million to $4.8 million. So, in all likelihood, the Yankees and the Red Sox will be limited to $1.7 million. This will have two effects. First, teams will be more reluctant to give big bonuses. Second, the big money teams will not be able to outspend their small-revenue rivals. Many of the teams that sign US free agents turn to Latin America to make up for their loss of draft choices and late selections in the draft. For example, last year the Yankees' first pick was the 51st selection, and their next was the 81st. Take a look at the list below. Note who's at the top and who's at the bottom.

My take is that amateurs will get smaller bonuses and lots of teams will be moving to beef up their Latin American operations. Teams with bad records will get extra high draft choices and won't have to out-bid the Yankees to sign Latin players. Why am I wrong?

International Signees 1n 2010 Top 30 Prospects
Team	Number
Yankees	12
Rockies	11
Mets	10
Phillies	10
Braves	9
Cubs	9
Mariners	9
Rangers	9
RedSox	9
Twins	9
Indians	8
Reds	8
Tigers	8
Giants	7
Astros	6
Athletics	6
BlueJays	6
Royals	6
Padres	6
WhiteSox	6
Angels	5
Cardinals	5
D-Backs	5
Dodgers	5
Nationals	4
Rays	4
Brewers	3
Orioles	3
Marlins	2
Pirates	2

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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You're wrong because...

the Cole pick wouldn’t work like that. The pool is based on a threshold of your first ten picks… $7.5 mil for all of them. Therefore Cole could hold your next 9 picks hostage, effectively. He may say I want $6.5 mil … knowing that’d leave you with $1 mil for 9 picks … or even all $7.5 mil.

Your point still somewhat stands but the machinations of the individual pick are different.

by RetireNutting on Nov 23, 2011 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Oops...

more like $11.5 pool and 7.5 recommendation for 1st. that’s unenforced though, as long as you stay under the $11.5.

by RetireNutting on Nov 23, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

But every team is under similar financial restrictions

I can submit resumes to a bunch of potential employers and say I’ll only work for $1 million, but if no one is willing to (or able to) pay me then I’m SOL. In your scenario Cole could say he wants $7.5 M but he has no leverage, he can refuse to sign, sit out a year, and then get drafted by a team with the exact same financial constraints….or worse. I’m just not seeing how this would negatively impact us at the top of the draft. In the middle and bottom rounds – absolutely. But that lack of advantage could be made up based on our clear advantage in the international draft.

by jaybell on Nov 23, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

One big caveat

Is if a whole bunch of top prospects play in indy ball for a year so they can be signed by teams outside of the draft process, which is what posters in other threads suggested. I’m not sure how/if that would work, but it would be a pretty big loophole.

by jaybell on Nov 23, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Indy Ball

That is not really a far fetched idea either. I can see agents lining up provide funding. Do you think that a barnstorming indy team comprised of a number of top prospects would not draw interest? If a team like this played the Wild Things, would you pay to see it?

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by Pagliaroni on Nov 23, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

I would pay to see it.

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by Bradley James McEachern on Nov 24, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

I am sure that most draftees can't become FAs

by merely playing Indy ball for a year. Maybe college seniors are eligible for this, but I doubt that anyone else would be.

by WestCoastBuc on Nov 24, 2011 7:45 AM EST up reply actions

naw...

you’re not seeing the whole picture… do you give up a 1.1 pick to sign a guy like Cole? I’d say no. Do you give up a 1.30 pick to sign a guy like Cole if you’re the Yankees or Red Sox? I’d say yes. The odds are in the favor of big markets … the penalties aren’t as severe if they pony up to kids gaming the slot system.

by RetireNutting on Nov 23, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

I believe that's what I said

But those folks haven’t been playing the draft that way, because they can tap into the elite free agent market. You really can’t do both, because you run out of draft choices.

Those folks have been playing hard in Latin America. Now they’ll face real restrictions.

If I may quote Steve Slowinski

So it’s too simplistic to state that the draft tax and international spending cap will have no positive effects on competitive advantage. The international spending cap will likely only affect a handful of small market teams — around four by my count — and it will affect a similar number of large and mid market teams. As for the draft, it will definitely hurt small market teams to not be able to spend liberally on prospects, but it will make it difficult for teams like the Red Sox to buy talent that slips to the end of the draft due to cost concerns.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Nov 23, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

No way

a player like Cole ever lasts until 1.30.

by WestCoastBuc on Nov 24, 2011 7:42 AM EST up reply actions

youre right. he was a 1.28

by white angus on Nov 24, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

Need more info

What would the chart look like if you assigned a player from the teams top 30 list to the original signing team?

by vgsailor on Nov 23, 2011 1:14 PM EST reply actions

Boras

I think Boras is infinitely more cunning than Manfred et al, so I imagine we’ll see something unexpected (or an interesting twist on something we’re guessing at) when it’s actually time for him to hold up a team for overslot money. Maybe we see JPL teams paying out big bonuses for top U.S. amateur draftees?

by SuperBaes on Nov 23, 2011 1:27 PM EST reply actions

So an 18 year old HS kid is going to move to Japan to learn to play baseball?

And does the JPL have the 4-5 year minor league progression, like we do? College grads might opt for the JPL as a lark, but college grads are likely to just go along with the slot system, as they don’t have much leverage.

by Central*Scrutinizer on Nov 23, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

You aren’t going to see too many 18 year old HS kids going to Japan to learn to play baseball without the Japanese teams throwing a ton of money at them. You are talking about kids that likely haven’t been away from home much or at all, and throwing them into a completely different society. It’s tough enough for the young Latino players to make the move to the U.S., even with a significant Latino population in Florida and Arizona.

by Thunder on Nov 23, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that was the point I was trying to make

without actually saying it, which you did well. That said, I wonder if the Japanese are better at teaching fundamentals?

by Central*Scrutinizer on Nov 23, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

100% with this.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 23, 2011 1:42 PM EST reply actions

you're wrong because

The Phillies Top 30 sucks… so just because more of them are Latin doesn’t mean they are any better in that regard

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by VoteforPedro on Nov 23, 2011 2:30 PM EST reply actions

Not such a good point

Here’s the BA scouting report for their 6th prospect:

Galvis is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the minors. He has plus range despite fringy pure speed, and he also has excellent hands, an above-average arm and incredible instincts. Slightly built, he went through a strength training program last offseason that helped him set career highs across the board in 2011. A switch-hitter who sprays line drives, Galvis makes consistent contact but never will hit for much power and profiles as a No. 8 hitter. He has improved at bunting and moving runners. Philadelphia praises his intelligence and makeup.

He hit 0.278 between AA and AAA. I’d take him in a minute.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Nov 23, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions