Yonder Alonso Trade To The Pirates Unlikely

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 28, 2011 9:44 AM EST

Tim has a good piece on Pirates' fans interest in Reds first baseman Yonder Alonso. The gist of it is that the Reds might not trade Alonso within the division anyway, are unlikely to trade him for Joel Hanrahan, and may want more for Alonso than he's actually worth.

I like Alonso and I think he'd be a very good fit for the Bucs, but I think Tim is right on. I would probably trade Hanrahan for him, but I'm not sure the Reds would be willing to trade a guy who might beat them in N.L. Central games for years to come, particularly when they reportedly aren't interested in dealing him for Andrew Bailey of the A's. And even then you could make the argument that the Pirates shouldn't do the deal, since the Pirates should be trying to hit a home-run ball in a Hanrahan trade, and Alonso looks like a double at best.

For the same reason, the Pirates can't really trade anything more than Hanrahan, because Alonso projects as a good player, but not a star. The .330/.398/.545 line he posted in a small sample in the majors last year looks like a mirage. He doesn't have outstanding power for a first baseman, and he isn't particularly young, so one would hope he'd be a bit further along in developing it. He does hit for a bit of average and control the strike zone well, but that makes him like ... Casey Kotchman in Kotchman's good years, or maybe the first few years of Lyle Overbay's career. Baseball Prospectus actually lists Adrian Gonzalez as Alonso's top comparable, which I suppose is one possible outcome, but I think it's only a remote possibility. Tim compares Alonso to Adam LaRoche, which isn't quite a match in terms of his skill set, but is a pretty good approximation of his value.

Basically, I think Alonso looks like he should be a couple wins above replacement most years. That means he does have significant value, especially since he'll be cheap for the first few seasons. But it's not worth selling the farm for.

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Flip Hanrahan for Alonso ..... NOW!

Doubt the Reds would only want the hammer, but that is a deal that should be done. Hanrahan’s value is not going to get any higher than it is right now. To get a guy that is 23 and already projecting a little above replacement level, with even a small percent chance of Adrian Gonzalez is a win.
Plus, in 6 months, two years and five years, Alonzo’s value will be above Hanrahan.

by NHpiratefan on Nov 28, 2011 10:09 AM EST reply actions

you could argue that Hanrahan's value could be much higher around the trade deadline

if he pitched like he did most of last year, that is.

by white angus on Nov 28, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Am I missing something with his age? I thought he was going to be 25 before the start of next season? Doesn’t seem like such a slam dunk of a move IMO. They are going to want too much for him and as Charlie/Tim point out, the likelihood of them trading in division is not very high.

by pskell02 on Nov 28, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

He turns 25

in early April, so not QUITE before the season but next year will be his “age 25 season.” It might not seem like it, but those two years mean a lot in terms of a players development.

by KentuckyPirate on Nov 28, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

I don't want Alonso - especially not at that price.

I think he might be the single most overrated prospect in baseball today. A hundred hot PAs at the end of the season shouldn’t cancel out his age, defensive limitations, and relatively undistinguished minor league track record.

by Vlad on Nov 28, 2011 10:46 AM EST reply actions

Yes, but

a hundred hot PAs AND a really cool name easily balance out all of that.

by bucdaddy on Nov 28, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

You nailed it,

and what is ironic is that his stats are eerily similar to Matt Hague’s, in the same league, last year.

by nycbucsfan on Nov 28, 2011 11:14 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

i've cooled on Alonso

think there’s better options out there and would actually hate to trade hanrahan in the division. just did fanpost about it but apparently Blue Jays open to trading David Cooper, would prob be a better get

by Mingy on Nov 28, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions

You guys are wrong about Yonder

This guy is a pure hitter, and if you watched both Hague and Alonso over an extended number of at-bats you would see what the scouts see in Alonso and don’t see in Hague.

Without looking it up, I believe that Yonder is considered a plus or better defender at 1B and that only in the outfield is he poor defensively.

This is a great fit for the Pirates, and I espect him to be similar to Logan Morrison. The only thing I doubt is if he will stay healthy. I’d do Hanrahan for Alonso every time and would throw in a 10-20 prospect as well. Remember that the Reds don’t really have a closer right now after Cordero became a free agent.

by ballparkfranks on Nov 28, 2011 11:31 AM EST reply actions

This is a great fit for the Pirates, and I espect him to be similar to Logan Morrison.

Morrison is a much, much better player than Alonso is. He’s younger than Alonso right now. He was younger than Alonso in the minors, and put up much more impressive offensive numbers than Alonso in spite of his age disadvantage. He’s a proven producer at the ML level, while Alonso is not. And his scouting reputation during his prospect days was much better: back-to-back top-20 spots on BA’s list of the top 100 prospects, while Alonso peaked at #35, and was #73 entering last season.

The only real advantage that Alonso has at this point is service time.

by Vlad on Nov 28, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

I looked it up.

And BA doesn’t think he’s a plus defender.

While hitting comes easy for Alonso, defense has been an issue. He’s adequate at first base, which is really his only viable option. He has some arm strength, but his well below-average speed doesn’t play well in left field and he has looked overmatched at third base.

And I think you have got the gist of the issue. Scouts love Alonso, and they don’t love Hague. Managers tend to see them as comparable. Look at the 2011 AAA batting average, on base percentage, and slugging

Hague: 309/372/457
Alonso: 296/374/486

Note this was Alonso’s second year in AAA. The first year his slash lines were 296/355/470. I’d trade Hague for Alonso, but not much more.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Nov 28, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

Let's not get carried away.

Alonso is a better prospect than Hague. Younger, better track record, significantly more power, etc.

Unfortunately for Alonso, being better than Hague isn’t a high enough bar that clearing it makes you a slam dunk as a prospect.

by Vlad on Nov 28, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

No way!

Would I trade the Hammer within the division. It would be a huge PR mistake to
watch him close out games at PNC. Alonso turns 25 early next year. Would rather
see Hanrahan for Lars Anderson and another prospect. The way things are going
in Boston Lars would have a solid season with the Bucs and Hanrahan would have
an ERA of 6.52. Lars is also 1 1/2 years younger than Alonso as well.

by pineapplepete on Nov 28, 2011 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Lars eh?

There’s a surprise.

by Brakeman8 on Nov 28, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

Would rather see Hanrahan for Lars Anderson and another prospect.

Lars Anderson doesn’t have anything close to that kind of trade value. The only way that would work is if the “other prospect” were a significantly better prospect than Anderson is.

by Vlad on Nov 28, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

yeah you're probably right

by the way, am I the only one seeing Bill Murray as the Groundskeeper in Caddyshack
when I look at Alonso’s picture?

by pineapplepete on Nov 28, 2011 12:42 PM EST reply actions

for future reference, just say Carl Spackler

by white angus on Nov 28, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yonder

looks too clean.

by bucdaddy on Nov 28, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Full disclosure: I'm a Reds fan

So you can summarily dismiss all of this if you like. But I think Alonso could be a very special hitter. His minor league track record shows a troubling lack of power for an elite 1B, but much of that is masked by a broken hamate bone in 2009 that sapped his power for a good year or so afterwards.

Also, he’s not really a pull hitter. Much like Adrian Gonzalez or Joey Votto, his power is much more evenly distributed around the field and his opposite power is pretty good. Those guys tend to fully develop their power at a later age than pull hitters, so I would make the argument that though he is 25, he’s a young 25 in terms of power development.

Add that to his excellent plate discipline and I think you have the makings of a top tier 1B. He’s a bad LF to be sure, but really no worse than Carlos Lee or Jonny Gomes or Manny Ramirez.

As for Hanrahan-for-Alonso, I’ll pass. But I don’t like trading for relievers as a general principle.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 29, 2011 1:06 PM EST reply actions