MLB CBA: Basically Just A Slotting System
Jim Callis tweets about some new details regarding changes to the draft. This one is the real killer:
More from exec: If you don't sign a pick, you lose his cap value. You can't not sign 1st-rder & spend his $ elsewhere.
Well, that stinks. I'd wondered if teams might try some tricks to lowball certain draft picks in order to give big money to others. I'm sure the Pirates, who for several years have been thumbing their noses at Major League Baseball with their draft behavior, would have been among the first to do something like that. But it looks like they can't, because MLB wants to control the whole process. If this does in fact turn out to be the rule, it also appears that it would be pretty much impossible to sign a late-round pick for more than $100,000 (at which point any expenditures above $100,000 start counting against the team's pool allotment). That means that if a high school player has any kind of college commitment, you'd better pick him in the first 10 rounds, or else he's pretty much guaranteed to go to college.
Callis also writes that the pool for the first 10 rounds is actually around $180 million, rather than $200 million.
UPDATE 12:46 PM: Yeah, Jonathan Mayo confirms this.
If a Club does not sign a pick, its signing bonus pool is reduced by the amount of the pick. So, for example, if a Club does not sign its first round pick, and its first round pick had a slot of $1.5 million, the Club’s signing bonus pool would be reduced by $1.5.
Mayo also says the total pool for the first 10 rounds will be $185 million.
As pskell02 points out in the comments, this essentially renders the "pool" idea meaningless. What we have here is a cap on each pick. Bust slot for any pick, and you get a penalty. If your "pool" is $7.2 million and you don't sign your first-round pick for $2.9 million, your "pool" doesn't matter. If you break the recommended value for any other pick, you'll still be penalized, because the $2.9 million for the first-round pick will be deducted from your pool.
UPDATE 5:38 PM: What's still not clear here is whether it's possible to sign players for less than MLB's recommended maximum, then use the leftover funds on other players. If it's still possible to do that, then it isn't really a slotting system. Of course, the players would then have the additional leverage of knowing that the team drafting them won't be able to use any of the recommended maximum for their pick if they don't sign, which could lead to some really weird stare-downs in negotiations where a team is essentially saying, 'You're not worth the pick at which you were drafted,' and the player saying, 'Yes I am, and give me an extra hundred thousand bucks, because if you don't, good luck trying to sign that pitcher you really like from the fifth round.' It sounds like a non-sequitur to me, but if teams are allowed to use leftover funds but can't use any allotted funds for unsigned picks, that's basically what it amounts to.
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So basically calling it a draft pool is bull shit
What we really have is a hard cap on each pick and if you don’t use the max of it by signing all of the first 10 picks, you are out on the extra funds. I’m assuming that given this development, if someone signs under slot, we lose out on that $$ as well.
The hits just keep on coming.
Yeah. It’s functionally just a cap on each pick.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 28, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
This was exactly my first thought. I guess the only way it differs is if a team could convince some picks to sign for less than their slot, which of course is unlikely.
I don’t like this because it limits strategy. The one positive from a team’s perspective is that it reduces what little leverage top picks had left.
It partially seems aimed at eliminating negotiations altogether
A team can basically only come to a draft pick now and say “This is what we’ve got, take it or leave it” and the kid and his agent can decide to take it or leave it.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
It does not mean it isn't a pool
You can still draft a lousy player overslot and sign him for very little.
If they didn’t do this, then teams who planned to use the strategy of lowballing first round picks might take a good player with no intention of signing him. Basically, it just means you can’t really screw a guy altogether by drafting him when you have no intention of signing him, because your strategy was to bypass round one. You can still basically bypass round one, you just need to do so by taking a bad player and signing him for a small amount.
by RafaelBelliup on Nov 28, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
For once, I actually agree with you RB.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
precisely
But what I think is more likely is you sign a 1st rounder over-slot then go for under-slot guys in later rounds.
by dennet on Nov 29, 2011 12:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
that is, instead of "bypassing" the first rd with a cheap guy
you spend big then bypass the later rounds
by dennet on Nov 29, 2011 12:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
which would be bad
If first-round picks have the leverage to force you to go cheap in later rounds, then this puts us back to teams drafting for signability, in one round or another.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 29, 2011 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
Eh
I don’t know how bad it would be. If elite talents are still gonna demand above-slot money, and the “average” team isn’t willing to get creative enough to cater to those needs, maybe it’s something we can exploit.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Apocalypse.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Nov 28, 2011 12:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Shorter MLB:
“GodDAMMIT, Pirates, you WILL NOT compete. This league is about the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies and you WILL LIKE IT”
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Here's my question...
It is worded as “If you dont sign your pick, you lose that value of that slow”.
Does that mean if the slot is $2 Million, and you get the pick to sign for $1.5, does the $500k stay available since the pick has signed?
I don’t think that question has been answered yet, but I would doubt it.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 28, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
You
doubt they get to keep the extra $500,000? I seriously doubt that they wouldn’t get to keep the $500,000. If not, why not just say this is hard-slotting, and the hard slot is 100K for all rounds after the 10th.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
If not, why not just say this is hard-slotting…
The ability to fight off legal challenges, perhaps? Dunno.
I'm
still confused. No offense to anyone, but I don’t see anything coming from Callis or Mayo that makes me think a team can lose “leftover” money when they sign a draft pick.
That would be in direct conflict with Jeff Passan’s tweet from last week…
The team picking first, for example, can take a player No. 1 overall for $4M and spread the remaining $3.2M out over other picks.
On the other hand, Passan’s tweet is not in conflict with the idea that if a team doesn’t sign a pick, they lose that portion of the allotment, which is what Mayo and Callis seem to be saying to me.
Putting that all together, I think a portion of the allotment is only “lost” if a team does not spend at all. That would get rid of the “loophole” previously suggested in which teams never sign a protected pick to "boost the allotment in both the current year and the following year, essentially getting double bang-for-the-buck.
This still sucks because it limits the ability to focus on paying elite players big bucks (my preferred method of drafting) but I think that can be addressed creatively in the manner I outlined below.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
What if?
We don’t sign our first round pick? We get a slot next year. Where does the money come to sign that pick. And what about any compensatory picks. Does a team get additional money for those?
The answer to your last question is yes. I assume the answer to the first question would be that a team would get additional money to sign a pick the following year.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 28, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Can a top player sign with an independent league
instead of being drafted or if he doesn’t like the money his draft slot allows then become a free agent to be free to negotiate with any team ?
by oldfrothingslosh on Nov 28, 2011 1:50 PM EST reply actions
Indy-league players are still eligible for the draft, as long as they haven’t passed through any prior draft without being drafted (during a time in which they were eligible to be drafted).
Yeah
It’s pretty much impossible for a “top player” from the US to get to free agency without being drafted at this point. They won’t stop taking a shot until there’s basically no chance you could make it. Matt Harrison got drafted 5 years in a row.
It’s pretty much impossible for a "top player" from the US to get to free agency without being drafted at this point.
At this point, I think that hypothetical player’s best bet would be to either sign a pro deal with a foreign pro league that does not have a transfer agreement with MLB, such as Honkbal Hoofdklasse or División de Honor de Béisbol, or to renounce his US citizenship after graduation. Both are fairly high-risk endeavors, though.
You mean
renouncing US citizenship is risky? Hm…
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
I am a Citizen.....
of …Nowhere land.
and need passports for every country lol.
Yes, but...
Doesn’t this slotting system make the chances of a player actually managing to slip through undrafted much higher? The risk to the team for not signing is much higher while, at the same time, their ability to offer a better deal has been reduced. Let’s say you’ve got a two-sport Drew Henson type, no one would risk wasting the pick and gutting their draft pool when they know they can’t sign him for what they could offer.
Personally, I think Boras (or some other slick agent) will find a way to break this thing.
Doesn’t this slotting system make the chances of a player actually managing to slip through undrafted much higher?
No. Top talents will still tend to get drafted with late-round picks, just on the off-chance that their opinions about signing change before the signing deadline. That’s mostly what picks 40-50 get used for these days anyway.
Seems rather petty
I know I can never sign this guy for $100,000 but I’m going to spend the draft pick just to prevent him from being a baseball player at all.
I get what you’re saying, but if a guy has that radical a turn of fortune, it means he’s likely seriously injured himself and you probably don’t want him anyway.
I know I can never sign this guy for $100,000 but I’m going to spend the draft pick just to prevent him from being a baseball player at all.
You aren’t “preventing him from being a baseball player at all”. You’re giving him the opportunity to be a baseball player if his personal circumstances change (like when Lonnie Chisenhall got kicked off his college team for stealing stuff from students’ dorm rooms). If he doesn’t want to take your offer, he can still become a player in subsequent seasons by re-entering the draft.
I get what you’re saying, but if a guy has that radical a turn of fortune, it means he’s likely seriously injured himself and you probably don’t want him anyway.
Sometimes, but not always. I can think of a fair number of recent and recent-ish examples off the top of my head. Billy Traber in 2000, Tim Stauffer in 2003, Dykstra in 2008, etc.
Are you wasting a 50th round pick on a guy because of a minute chance he’d sign for 1/100th of his value or are you simply using a pretty much useless draft pick to prevent him from becoming a free agent and signing with someone else? Remember, the discussion point here is the idea that players can be forced to sign for slot by the threat of different teams drafting them repeatedly until they submit.
question: Under the new CBA, if you don't sign with the team that drafts you
can you re-enter the draft next year? Or is there a 2 year penalty or something?
by dennet on Nov 29, 2011 12:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If
it’s like the old CBA (which I’ve seen nothing to suggest otherwise) then players can re-enter the draft the following year if they do not sign, with the exception of high school guys who go to 4-year colleges. Then they are generally tied to that until after their junior year, with some sophomores (and even the occasional freshman) being draft eligible depending on their age (I believe it depends on when they turn 21).
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
are you thinking of an instance like the JD Drew
draft year? After he refused to sign with the Phillies and played in the Northern League for one year and wanted to be declared a free agent?
The MLB closed that loop saying that he would still be eligible for the draft and end up being drafted again.
Boras could’ve taken it to court but it would’ve dragged for years and by then Drew would’ve been 30 year old maybe after all the appeals and at that age, I don’t think anyone would’ve drafted him then or signed him as a free agent lol.
The system is broken...
and the new CBA not only doesn’t fix it, it broke the few things that were actually working right.
Somebody help me out here
Let’s say I am Jose Shortstop, a high school kid with a committment to play for Goodprogram University. The Pirates take me with their Ryan Doumit tweener pick. My agent, B.A. Boraxis, asks for Josh Bell money. The pirates say, “No way Jose. The amateur draft is now a slot machine. Take it or leave it.”
What am I to do? I can go to dear old Goodprogram U for a couple years, but the slot will still be there when I am eligilble to be redrafted. The money difference between a tweener pick and a mid first round pick is probably less than it was before the new CBA.
Wouldn’t I be just as likely, maybe even more likely, to sign now?
I understand how this will hurt the draftees a lot. It will also change the way players are picked. I understand how it will take away a method of drafting the the Pirates have been using. I am not sure that we have completely thought out all the repercussions of the slot. For the draftees, it’s the worst thing since Selig’s birth. For teams like the PBC, it seems like it might only be pretty bad.
Well 3 things could happen:
1. they could actually improve stock and maybe they would get a slight bump based on the slotting…..hey 100k is more than nothing.
2. they fumble or struggle in college and never pan out. Then they never get drafted by the MLB losing out on a ton of money.
3. they could get to college and decide that baseball isn’t really the game for them too. It’s a great payday, but possible the grind gets to them and decide they don’t want to play it as a career. The motivation isn’t there. Who was it recently that mentioned he really didn’t like ball all that much?
"Who was it recently that mentioned he really didn’t like ball all that much?"
Are you thinking of the Jeff King stories?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 28, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
What am I to do? I can go to dear old Goodprogram U for a couple years, but the slot will still be there when I am eligilble to be redrafted.
Unless another amateur player successfully challenges it in court in the interim. Which is possible.
The more likely course of action for you, though, involves turning pro in a different sport with a much more immediate high-end payout, such as basketball or football. Cameron Heyward was the Steelers’ first-round pick last year, at #31 overall. He got a four-year deal for $6.7M, including a signing bonus of $3.3M. The other guys picked higher in the first round got more – often much more.
In contrast, slot money for the #1 overall pick in the MLB draft last year, the one we used on Cole, was only $4M.
Lots of current MLB stars were at one time highly-touted football or basketball recruits. Joe Mauer, for example, was USA Today’s High School Football Player of the Year as a senior, and a top football recruit with a (football) scholarship to Florida State. Would baseball be better off with slightly cheaper draft classes missing top-end athletes like Mauer?
Yep
this is a deathknell to two-sport guys. They aren’t signing out of high school anymore. Kiss good-bye to the majority of Bubba Starlings, Carl Crawfords, Zach Lees, and Jameis Winstons (this year).
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Is this a quiz?
Would baseball be better off with slightly cheaper draft classes missing top-end athletes like Mauer?
“I know! I know! Slightly cheaper draft classes!”
— Bud Selig
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
In the case of guys like Mauer and Bubba Starling
They will probably sign, even if they can only get slot. $2.5M – $4M is still a lot of money and the odds that any given HS All American football player will go on to becoma an NFL first round pick are not real good. So it would come to the choice between, say, a guaranteed $2.4M right now vs. the chance of a somewhat better payday from the NFL 3-4 years down the road. I think most guys presented with that choice will still sign.
Where baseball will lose more talent is a little farther down in the draft – guys that might’ve gotten $800K or $1M bonuses as later round picks might only get offered $200K or something and decide to play football in college. Because let’s face it, being a bigtime NCAA football player looks a lot more exciting and glamorous than being in the Sally League taking bus rides from Charleston, WV to Hagerstown, MD or whatever. You need a pretty good sized bonus to make up that difference.
While
it is of no real consolation, because this really does suck, I don’t think the following statement is technically true, at least how I’m reading this..
Bust slot for any pick, and you get a penalty
If the slot for our 1st round pick this coming year is 2.9 million, and the slot for the second round is 1 million (just pulled that number out of my ass), hypothetically the Pirates could sign their first round pick for 3.3 million if they sign their second round pick for only 600,000.
That again isn’t of that much consequence even if it allows for a bit of flexibility.
Now, in a more general sense, what you say Charlie makes sense because it means a team can’t simply blow their pool on two elite guy, and just ignore the majority of their other picks in the first 10 rounds because it’s going to be really hard to find enough guys to go under-slot and to go enough under-slot to provide meaningful money to be allocated elsewhere in order to go “over-slot” say on a sign-ability second-rounder (ala Josh Bell and/or Stetson Allie).
Basically, this sucks.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 2:30 PM EST reply actions
i find it highly unlikely
any player is going to go “under slot” since the Agents most likely will know the slot numbers. Won’t they? I can’t see MLB trying to hide these slot #’s for a long time before someone somewhere leaks it to one agent.
i find it highly unlikely any player is going to go "under slot" since the Agents most likely will know the slot numbers.
The players who sign below-slot deals usually fall into one of two broad categories. They’re either college seniors who don’t have the luxury of waiting and re-entering the draft next year, or players whose pre-signing physicals reveal a serious medical problem (but not one serious enough to prevent the player from signing altogether).
I guess
if you want to spend big on two or three guys, you could significantly overdraft college guys in rounds 3-10, and offer them significantly below slot (but still a bit more than they would have gotten had they been drafted in rounds 15-30 or w/e).
Basically, take Joe White, who stands to get an offer of $10,000 when he gets drafted in the 30th round, and get a pre-draft deal with him that you will offer him $50,000 and give him a shot, then put that money elsewhere.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I'm not thinking this through completely
but I can’t think of any reason for a player to take a below slot deal. Even if a player believes that he isn’t worth the full slot amount, he knows that the team loses the cap money if he doesn’t sign. The Player would just tell the team “you’re going to lose $500K from the cap either way. You can either get your 3rd round pick with it or you can just throw the money away.” Obviously, the team would have some leverage because they could get a compensatory pick so they might be able to go slightly under slot but I can’t imagine saving enough money to substantially increase your offer to another top pick.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 28, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
College
Seniors who probably won’t even get drafted if they go to independent ball.
Perfect example. I went to a small school outside of Lexington, like 1,200 students. A guy who was in my class got drafted last year by the Braves in the 20’s (rounds). I seriously doubt he got a 6 figure bonus, possibly much less.
However, when a feature ran on the school’s website that I read, he was quoted as saying “Are you joking, yes I’m gonna sign. I’m going to get paid money to play baseball. A living is a living” or something like that, when he was asked if he was gonna sign.
Plus, the guy we sign will make decent money just playing in the minors. Yes, they could argue that we lose something but not signing him, but so will they guy who doesn’t sign. That’s why it should be fairly easy to come to pre-draft deals if you find the right guys.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
in the 20's
That’s the key part of your story. Lots of guys are going to sign for under the $100,000 limit in the later rounds but none of that can be used to help sign your 1st-10th round picks. The later rounds can only hurt you, not help you, and those are the only guys likely to sign for below their limit.
That's
why you draft the guy who would be signed in the 20’s, in the 4th round, with the pre-draft deal already in place, sign him for 50K and add several hundred thousands dollars to your “allotment.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
That's
what I always thought, but I’m basing it off the new CBA.
d. Minimum Salaries
1. Major League will increase from $414,000 in 2011 to: $480,000 in 2012; $490,000 in
2013; and $500,000 in 2014; COLA in 2015 and 2016.
2. Minor League will increase from $67,300 in 2011 to: $78,250 in 2012; $79,900 in 2013;
and $81,500 in 2014; COLA in 2015 and 2016.
$67,300 is a damn good living to play baseball for 1/2 – 2/3 of the year. Plus, guys we draft next year will make $79,900 in 2013.
I agree those numbers look way too high, but I’m not sure what else to say.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think that's for players on the 40-man
Not sure, though
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 29, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Thattttt
makes alot of sense. Thank you.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Hypothetical situation here...
Pirates pool for 20XX is $5M. First round slot is $2.5M. They sign their first round pick for $3M. They fail to sign ANY of the next 9 picks. Not only does that drop their pool to $2.5M, but it also puts them 20% over their “cap”. Goodbye 1st pick the next 2 seasons.
It may not be a hard cap…but it’s damn close.
Right
which means this is simply gonna require some creative thinking and planning.
The easiest “exploitable” route I see is to draft and sign cheap college kids, especially in the back end of the first 10 rounds.
Check here
Draft John Schwind in the 10th round instead of the 41st, sign him for 40K (we’d probably have to double the price to maintain our leverage) and free up money to sign that #1 guy.
Remember too guys, while 5 years is along time, it’s note forever, and if MLB seriously misses out on amateur talent (because guys go elsewhere rather than signing out of HS) MLB will do something about it.
Ultimately, I simply see this as drastically increasing the college talent available, potentially making the “competitive balance” pick we will almost assuredly get yearly more valuable.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
But isn’t slot for our 10th round pick going to be more like $100K at most? So you still aren’t freeing up any significant money. I doubt Josh Bell is signing for $600k but not for the $500k slot amount of our comp pick. I guess you could draft a 8th round talent with a comp pick and free up $800K or more but then you’re wasting a top 50 selection.
What I see in the CBA
may be that more college players end up in the 1st 10 rounds with the exceptional few high school players sprinkled in. (i.e. Bundy ).
Once you get to round 11, the free wheeling spending can begin again with the high schoolers is how i take it.
Because all the penalties as i’ve read it apply only to the 1st 10 rounds?
nope
If you spend over $100K past round ten, it gets applied to your cap.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 28, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
in some ways I don't mind this
The whole plan stinks on ice, but I might prefer hard slotting to a real draft pool. With a real draft pool, I’d fear that Scott Boras would decide to really stick the number one team up — tell them “My guy wants ten million dollars, and if that means you can’t sign your second through eighth round picks, tough shit.” At least with effectively hard slotting, that won’t happen. Of course he could try to hold teams up for the up to five percent, but there might not be any percentage in that.
I mean: This whole plan stinks. It’s really hard to see this as promoting competitive balance when it’s targeting a strategy that’s been used mostly by small-market teams (and when Emperor Bud was reportedly furious at the Pirates’ spending). Not to mention that the Super-Two expansion seems like it’s going to hurt the teams that depend most on cost-controlled talent. (Though presumably the players rather than Bud demanded it.) But if they’re going to do a hard overall cap, they may as well do hard individual slots.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 28, 2011 2:46 PM EST reply actions
Hard slotting makes a lot of sense and levels the playing field from a draft perspective.
It sounds like we now, essentially, have hard slotting. This would be good but for the fact that the rest of the economic landscape in baseball is outrageously unfair and that the draft was -in explicably – the one area in which some low revenue teams were actually outspending some high revenue teams in a competitive venue.
This bites it.
Good day.
the flip side is
there might be players unworthy of the slot money, who demand the money anyway since it’s been “earmarked” for them.
That said, I do think Boras will, in fact, say “tough shit” and ask for over-slot money.
by dennet on Nov 29, 2011 12:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Does
anyone know if the CBA prevents offering incentive-laden contracts. I mean, this came from a tweet from someone writing for mlbtraderumors, so it’s not just my crazy wild-eyed idea.
Look here
Re. draft spending under new CBA: If you have $ & want 2 lure players, guarantee less $ and include lots of $ in EASILY reachable incentives.
Basically, say this system had applied last year. What was gonna keep us from drafting Josh Bell and signing him at slot (say 1 million) then give him a contract giving him 4 million dollars vesting the moment he has 100 PA’s in a season or something.
Would that have even been possible (although there would be no reason to do it since there was no cap) prior to the new CBA?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 2:48 PM EST reply actions
I'm intrigued
I like the idea. I’m sure it would have Bud breaking knee caps and curb stomping people quickly, but it could work. Of course, I feel like they would just say that’s included in your cap.
I’m concerned about pissing off the MLB even more. It seems like the next move would be to assign free agents to whatever team they see fit.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
How much power does MLB have to reject a contract?
The Red Sox tried to sign Andrew Miller to a contract with a poison pill — it had a ridiculously expensive team option that vested if he was claimed off waivers, meaning that the Sox would be able to send him to AAA without risking losing him — but MLB made them rework it. Seems like they might do something similar to incentive-laden draft signings.
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by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 28, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
That's
what I’m looking for. Obviously plenty, and they would simply void incentive-laden deals.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
So
assuming the incentive loophole is closed (I’m assuming that because the MLB has closed every other hole) I’d argue that the best draft strategy is as follows.
Rather than go depth, go for elite players, probably high school guys in the 2nd and 3rd round. This is going to be risky, and thus why it may be “exploitable” because other teams won’t want to be as risky.
Assuming we have ~8 million (including our current comp pick) for next years draft, I’d draft a mold in player X in rounds 4-10 as well as with our comp pick.
Player X is a college guy. He’s a guy who will probably end up as organizational filler, with the upside of a bench guy if everything clicks. He’s also looking to get drafted around the 30th round instead of the 3rd. As such, he’s looking for a 20K bonus (that may have been 100K in years past, but not anymore). Get a pre-draft deal with that player, and offer him 50K. If we sign all 8 players for around that, you spend about 500K, leaving the Pirates with 7.5 million for their other 3 picks.
Presumably elite talents will be falling left and right. Gobble them up, and add elite players, but not depth, to the system. Last year, 7.5 million would have nearly grabbed George Springer, Henry Owens, and Daniel Norris, and that’s before suppressing prices, which will almost certainly happen.
Then, to add a bit of depth, get a few interesting guys for 100K from rounds 11 on.
I doubt any team tries this, cause a draft class could end up incredibly barren if you don’t sign 2 or all 3 of those elite guys, but I see it as being the best method in the new system.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 3:30 PM EST reply actions
Not so sure that would work...
What they are reporting above is that if you dont use your full amount for your 1st Rd pick, you don’t get a chance to apply that money to a pick from a different round.
They
aren’t reporting that. I read it as, if you don’t sign someone with your 1st round pick, you lose your 2.9 million. Otherwise, it’s simply strict hard-slotting, which if you are going to have a spade, why not simply call it a spade.
Both quotes in the original post simply deal with if a player isn’t signed.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
That was my hope...
and you saw my question to Charlie. I hope you are right, and you only lose $$$ if you dont sign a player at all.
If that would work
Then why not draft the Pirate Parrot in the first round, sign him for bird seed, then apply virtually the entire amount of the #1 slot (which is the lion’s share of your pool) towards seven or eight or nine above slot talents elsewhere?
You
could do that as well, but I’d rather have 3 top 50 guys (on a draft board, not on an overall prospect list) than 8 guys ranging from 150-300 or so, which is about where those guys would fall with that type of money.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Certainly
could be. like 1/2 of slot, but I’ve seen nothing like that yet.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
why not just sign someone good in the first round?
Instead of saving 1st rd. money for later rounds, you can still just spend it in the 1st rd. And if you want to re-allocate money from different rounds, it works just as well to sign Pirate Parrot & friends in later rounds.
by dennet on Nov 29, 2011 12:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Which
is exactly what I would do. I’d save money in rounds 4-10, and go bonkers as possible in rounds 1-3.
For example, I’d argue without really looking it at in to deeply that adding Springer, Owens, and Norris to our current system (so making it like we drafted 3 similar players next draft).
George Springer would probably slot #6, right behind Josh Bell.
Daniel Norris would probably slot #9, right behind Tony Sanchez
Henry Owens would slot in the #12-14 range.
Considering how solid our farm system is, and considering the upside of all three players, I’d argue that wouldn’t be too bad drafting #8. For example, had George Springer entered the system in the 2009 offseason, he would probably have been #2 in the system going into 2011.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
I’d save money in rounds 4-10, and go bonkers as possible in rounds 1-3.
You can’t possibly save enough money by going below-slot in rounds 4-10 to “go bonkers” on earlier picks. By round 4, you’re already down to around $200k per pick.
If
our total allotment is say 8 million (including our comp pick for Doumit – and we save on that pick as well) and we spend ~50K per pick for those 8 picks, so say a total of 500K, that leaves 7.5 million.
In last year’s draft. 7.5 million drafting in the same spot we are drafting this year would net.. I believe, George Springer, Daniel Norris, and Matt Dean. Heck, you could take Dean in the 4th round, and still get Dickerson in the 3rd, and pay him ~500K and still be under your cap. Maybe bonkers was the wrong word, but I like that type of draft. I think it would compare favorably to our other recent drafts except last year, where we really did go bonkers.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
In last year’s draft. 7.5 million drafting in the same spot we are drafting this year would net.. I believe, George Springer, Daniel Norris, and Matt Dean.
Picking at the #1 overall position? That’s a pretty lousy outcome, IMO.
I'm
talking about using last year’s class and projecting it onto our current position using bonuses from last year as well.
It’s far from prefect, but I think it’s a decent model to look at.
By “same spot” I meant the same spot as this year. Drafting 8th in last year’s draft.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Because the first round pick is a vastly larger percentage of the pool than any other. It’s a lot easier to pull a Tony Sanchez and draft a later-round talent first, pay him half slot and then use what you saved there in the rest of the draft. The picks after #1 go down in value really steeply, and the player’s agent knows that you >have< to sign him to get any value at all, so I don’t think you’re going to be able to scrape up that much money there.
Draft change
If they have hard slotting with per pick caps, then why (or why) didn’t they allow teams to trade picks? If you could trade a team for either A) their draft slot or B) better yet, part of their draft cap, this wouldn’t be so bad. So, for example, if you were the Pirates and wanted to trade a reliever to the Yankees or Red Sox, you could trade for their 1st or 2nd round draft allotment (or the pick itself). That would probably only be done by the small-market teams trying to gear up for a draft.
The 6 (?) lottery, bonus picks handed out to the small revenue teams actually ARE tradeable.
It’s possible they figured a team like the Yankees would just trade their picks for major league talent every year and become even more stacked, who knows.
Not that I agree with MLB on this
But I think what they’re worried about is a John Elway kind of situation where there’s a clear #1 talent out there who simply says he’s not going to accept playing for the Astros or demands so much money that the early-drafting teams could never afford him, thus forcing them to trade the pick. It also prevents cheap teams from trading away picks simply to avoid having to pay signing bonuses.
Back room deals
One theme I’m seeing a lot here is teams making back-room deals with players to get around the rules. Can’t help feeling that this is what we’re going to see in real life.
Here’s a question: how long after you initially sign a player before you can rework the deal? Could, say, the Pirates sign their first round pick to a slot-level deal with the wink-wink promise to rework it a year later?
Or
just buy a car for his parents, or him a car, or give him a bonus the following year. Etc, etc. I don’t think there is anything to prevent this unless it can be proven.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 28, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Could, say, the Pirates sign their first round pick to a slot-level deal with the wink-wink promise to rework it a year later?
If they did that, he’d become eligible for the R5 draft later that year, like Szczur did with the Cubs this year, and need to go on the 40-man roster at the end of the season.
Not necessarily an insurmountable obstacle, but I figured it was worth noting.
Oo
that is interesting. Possible loophole?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

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