Juan Rivera: Setting The Market For Garrett Jones?
by WTM on Nov 3, 2011 9:14 AM EDT
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PrintAccording to MLBTR, the Dodgers have agreed to a one-year deal with Juan Rivera for $4.5M.
Except for hitting right-handed and being three years older, Rivera is very similar to Garrett Jones. They're both 1B/OF types who are best suited to a platoon/part-time role. They both have moderate power and weak on-base skills. Rivera's career OPS+ is 104. Jones' is 108, inflated of course by his fluke 2009 season. I think the estimate for Jones' arbitration salary was something like $2.4M. Obviously, as a free agent, Rivera figured to get more. Still, it's surprising he'd get that much, especially considering that his OPS+ has reached triple digits only twice in the last five years.
I'm still seeing speculation that the Pirates will non-tender Jones. I think that's unlikely, but then I didn't think they'd dump Ronny Cedeno. This does show that Jones is a good deal at $2.4M. We can also recall a certain disastrous signing of a platoon corner OF for 2 yrs/$4M. Non-tendering Jones would be a hard move to defend.
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Completely agree
I’d argue that his inflated ‘09 numbers are balanced out by his overexposed ’10 numbers. There is no responsible management that has him facing lefties in over 1/3 of his PAs – even in his "you can’t sit this guy" 2009, fewer than 30% of his PAs came against lefties.
Last year, with Hurdle using him sensibly, Jones saw lefties in just 15% of his PAs, for a wRC+ of… 107. Obviously there will be season-to-season variation, and he could well decline at any timeª, but I think that’s a reasonable mark for his true talent level, when platooned properly.
ª he’ll turn 31 in the middle of next season. Given his build – big but not fat, decently athletic – I’d be surprised to see him (significantly) decline in ‘12, but I wouldn’t be surprised thereafter. I don’t foresee a collapse in ’12 or ’13, but of course you never know.
For the reasons you state—i.e., Jones is pretty athletic and shouldn’t be seeing much LH pitching—he’s a very good bet to post a higher OPS than Rivera.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
If Jones sees a bunch of LH pitching while Matt Hague sits in AAA, I’m going to have to start wondering exactly what Hague did to Neal Huntington. (My guess: this.)
Not that I think Hague is going to be a world-beater, but you’d have to figure he’d be better as a bench bat/RH platoon 1B than Jones would be against LH pitching.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 3, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I think so, too
Even in his 2009, Jones was still pretty bad against LHPs. He’s been Ciriaco-like since.
I was concerned you were Rick Rolling us, which probably still merits being kept in AAA.
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Nov 3, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
NH has heaving breasts?
And Hague was staring at them?
I think that’s the real story here.
who says Hague is George?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 3, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Disasterous?
In this day of salaries, no signing of a player for 2 years at $2 million per could be considered disasterous. Diaz was bad, but he actually helped win us some games and helped keep Jones off the field against lefties. I think his results were way off what we should have expected, but disasterous?
I hope we do keep Jones, but only for one more season, unless he really improves. Funny how we are expecting the Dodgers to slash payroll, then they overpay for a guy like Rivera.
Good Post;;
It will be interesting to see what the Pirates do with Jones… I don’t see to much decline in Jones in 2012… Plus, I think the guy is a work horse…. takes is off season work outs pretty seriously….
I mean how many games has he sat out due to injury in the past 3 seasons?? I think one of the voluntary sits was that the guy ate a sandwich to fast and choked on it or something strange like that…..
Jones is durable, a fan favorite, can play o.k first base/right field, and provides for some excitement w/ the bat now and again…. Throw the dude a bone and give him a pay day…
Jones and a PTBNL to LA for Loney
this way Jones can platoon w/ Rivera while the Pirates have their first real 1Bman, who can still play, since ALaRoche
Should we pay this to a bench player?
I don’t disagree that Jones is worth the 3-4 million he’ll probably receive in arbitration. Clearly, and a bit surprisingly, he has been a pretty consistent source of decent power for the team the past few years.
My question is whether his playing time is trending downwards or staying at ‘11 level, not factoring in injuries. I imagine the Pirates will want to give an outfield of Presley, Cutch, and Tabby a chance. I also think they likely don’t want Jones to be the starting 1B. So, where does he fit in? At 3-4 million on a small-market team, we’d better have a clear plan to get him at-bats. There’s just no reason (Unless I’m missing something?) to pay that much to a guy we only want to give 300 plate appearances to.
Where are you getting the $3-4MM figure?
GFJ is not going to get that. As WTM points out, it’ll prolly be in the $2.4 MM range.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I also thought the point of this..
was to compare what Rivera got to what Jones may get. Rivera got 4.5 because he was a free agent, I was just taking it down .5-1.5 million as an arbitration number.
Where does the 2.4 million come from? Is it that crazy to think the Pirates offer 2 and Jones counters with 4? They settle on 3.
His 2011 salary
was $455,500.
He’s not going to jump to $3-4 MM any time soon via arb.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Just call it a hunch…but if Jones is expecting $4M…that would increase chances he gets non-tendered. I can’t imagine that Neal has Jones’ internal value that high. $2M…maybe.
well
if Jones is going to ask for 4M in his arb hearing, he’s going to lose. That’s not going to get him non-tendered though (or shouldn’t)
Yep
I don’t feel like searching for it, but I’m pretty sure MLBTR estimated $2.4M.
Well, Tim discusses the MLBTR estimates here. It was 2.4. No way he’s getting 4.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 3, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
good
point jlk9697…. but I still think we have to do it… Its important to have somewhat of a decent bench players…. and it helps that he can hit the long ball from time to time. Sometimes you have to pay a bit extra, but when Tabatta goes down for 50th injury of his career (knock on wood), you don’t want a completely incompetent player out there.
I wonder if “we weren’t even willing to give our starting SS $3m” will fly as an argument….
maybe not.
by insane_sanity on Nov 3, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
for Jones?
does it matter? He cannot declare FA, if the Pirates offer him arb. I mean, some random GM with a mancrush (Colletti, Sabean, Hendry/Reagins from the ex-list) might do it, but its irrelevant. All the FO has to do is judge how much the arb process will award him, and I’d expect that number to be below 2M
first year arb = 40% of your true free agent value
2nd year = 60
3rd year = 80%
Jones is a super two so I’m not sure which direction that sways the chart but if you put his true value at $5m then 40% would be $2m for 2012, $3m for 2013, and $4m for 2014. That chart also isn’t an exact science either, just a guideline of past precedent.
IIRC
There was a study done (Hardball Times? FG?) last winter looking at Super Twos. I think that the conclusion was that Super Twos go through a progression like: 30%, 50%, 65%, 80% – that is, their Super Two award is NOT what they would have gotten in a normal 1st arbitration, and that there are knock-on effects, but they fade.
So, if we assume that Rivera is a comparable...
which was the premise of the original post, 40% of $4.5M is $1.8M. And 30% is $1.35M.
how this affects Jones's arb award
I could be way off base here, but I think arb-eligible players are supposed to get less than comparable free-agent players. So this means that Jones could expect well less than $4.5 M in arb. $2.4 M doesn’t seem unreasonable and isn’t a bad price for a bench bat, if that’s where Jones ends up — he’d presumably still get a fair number of ABs, and it’d be nice to have someone competent on the bench.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 3, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions
Yes, they are...
3-4 million is still less than 4.5 million, no?
I think it's supposed to be a lot less, at least at the beginning
The numbers that come to mind are 40-60-80 percent for first-second-third year eligible players, but I’m not sure if that’s official or just some kind of rule of thumb that the Fangraphs folk made up. Then 40 percent of $4.5 million would be $1.8 million.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 3, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Def. rule of thumb
based on observations. Doesn’t strictly hold, especially for high end guys (e.g., Fielder in the past, Cutch next year, probably), but for the likes of Jones, it’s pretty reliable.
NH will offer $1.9, GFJ will ask $2.4, GFJ will win. Or he’ll sign the night before, or he’ll be non-tendered, because his “internal valuation” is $2.35M, and NH won’t go above it.
I hope Garrett Jones is back for one more year.
I think he can still be a useful player against righties, while getting most of his PT in RF. I suppose if we don’t keep him, Lefty McThump will be happy to sign a new deal.
パトリック
consensus seems to be
keep him at the right price, which shouldnt be hard, since this is his first time eligible for arbitration.
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