Langosch: Pirates Likely To Offer Derrek Lee Arbitration
Jenifer Langosch on Derrek Lee:
Lee probably represents the lowest risk, and I’d expect the Pirates to offer him arbitration. Lee seems unlikely to accept it, and if he did, the Pirates would be pleased to have him back. The club is already trying to re-sign him.
That the Pirates are trying to re-sign Lee is no real surprise, and I don't think they're actually going to be able to do it, but this news is, at least, encouraging with regard to the Pirates' decision about whether to offer Lee arbitration, which I hope they do. They'd then have a shot at a free-agent compensation pick, which would be a miracle - the Yankees and Red Sox get about a billion of these each year, but I can't recall the Pirates ever getting one. Literally, never. If they've ever had one, it was many, many years ago.
The unlikelihood of Lee re-signing with the Pirates probably renders this next point moot, but I'm coming around to the idea of keeping him, if possible. I'm not sure we should be especially swayed by Lee's excellent hitting with the Pirates, since he only played in 28 games, and at Lee's age, I think the difference between Lee and a Garrett Jones / Matt Hague platoon is likely to be smaller than most fans think. But re-signing Lee would allow the Pirates to use Jones (and Hague) as depth, and that's something the organization needs badly right now. Short of Starling Marte or Matt Curry or someone catching fire and providing big-league help in July or something, there's really no credible backup plan if a first baseman or outfielder gets hurt or flames out. And, for obvious reasons, I'm not that excited about the possibility of finding someone else better than Lee on the free-agent market. The Pirates would probably have to shell out a bit more for him than I'd ordinarily prefer, but given how tiny their payroll is right now and how weak the free-agent market is in general, that's probably not worth worrying about.
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I wouldn’t go over 6.5m, and since Lee won’t sign for that, I’m pretty sure that’s the end of Lee as a Pirate. I agree with Charlie that Lee will decline, and that’ll be that (which is just fine).
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 3, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
what do you think he'll sign for?
because if you think he’ll sign for 10, there’s a pretty good chance he could get that in arb.
IMO
No reason not to offer him between $8-10M. If he can provide production close to what he gave the Bucs last year, I would say totally worth it.
I’m not sure Lee would take less than that, and I bet the arb ruling, if it ever comes, would be somewhere between the Pirates’ price range and Lee’s. So Lee would probably balk at the offer, and he’d be gone.
Correct me if I’m wrong, someone, but if Lee goes to arbitration and then declines his offer, the Pirates still get a pick, don’t they?
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 4, 2011 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think once you go to arbitration the only way to decline the award
is to retire in which case no pick. Also, I don’t believe that the arbiter can pick a number other than the ones that the Pirates and Lee give them.
Right.
The award of teh pick is registered when the player signs with a MLB team ( I think a minor league contract would count, but guys who get offered ARB generally get ML contracts). If the guy retires, or decided he wants to play in another country, no pick is awarded.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
yup
i don’t think a minor league contract counts, however (although I am admittedly a little unclear on this, but I think Felipe Lopez last year may have been an example of that).
to add to westcoastbuc and wiz
So Lee would probably balk at the offer, and he’d be gone.
No. As they said above, the arbitrator has to pick one of the 2 numbers given. Since paycuts are not common, and Lee had a good end to the year, I can easily see him getting to 8M from last year’s 7.25M, esp if the Pirates lowball with 6M or so. In that sense, it just comes down to, does Lee want to play for Pittsburgh at all, because the lowball isn’t going to affect the arb award, so he can easily counter with a more reasonable number and win.
if Lee goes to arbitration and then declines his offer
I am not sure what you mean here. In arb, both sides submit a number and one is chosen at the hearing. If he declines arb, and signs elsewhere the pirates get a pick. If he agrees to arb, doesnt like the number and quits baseball, the Pirates don’t get a pick. Not sure that I got what you meant though.
I think he was wondering if Lee could decline after arb.
He can’t. It is binding arbitration, and the only way out is to retire.
Also, to your point about the numbers, I don’t think that the Pirates would lowball. There is a limit to the around salary can be reduced, and I can’t see them pushing that. Lee had an OK year, definitely not a year for a decline in salary. I think it would be more like the Pirates offer $7.75 or 8, and Lee asking for 10.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
It is binding arbitration, and the only way out is to retire.
Technically, he could also jump the contract and sign with an outlaw league, if he can find one in this day and age.
Or in Japan, or the Dominican
or through face changing plastic surgery with the help of a FO coverup that would conceal his true identity. Be very suspicious if a Larick Dee signs anywhere this winter.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Alas,
I can only rec this once.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 6, 2011 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
I was wondering if Lee was allowed to walk away from the arbiter’s decision. That’s how it is in hockey, but I wasn’t sure about MLB’s rules for that.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Nov 4, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Comp . . . Pick?
Does . . . . . . . . . not . . . . . . . . compute.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Open the pod bay doors, HAL

Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 3, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a rather insensitive thing to say an intelligent agent.
Says Siri.
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
Given the FA market, and teams needing 1Bs, getting D-Lee to return would be a good thing. I’m wondering if the incident where the Bucs had him play a couple a games with a broken bone in his hand leaves a bad taste with him coming back. I gotta feeling that had a lot to do with the med staff firings.
"Pitch me outside, I will hit .400. Pitch me inside, and you will not find the ball." - Roberto Clemente
i sure hope he declines arb
not that i didnt love what he did, but i agree with Charlie that the difference between Lee and Jones/Hague may end up being small (due to regression by Lee) and I prefer the pick for the future.
glad they're offering
but hope he declines. to me, re-signing lee is a medium risk-low reward move. there are MANY minor league 1B that put up huge numbers in AAA that could be had for minimal price PLUS there’s a chance they end up being really good. Clint Robinson (royals), BRYAN LAHAIR (had ridiculous year last year in AAA for cubs) , these guys are way more intriguing options for me. I’d even rather give Matt Hague a chance because wasting money next year on a vet 1B to me is nonsensical. We need a 1B not for NEXT year but the years after that. one more year of suffering IMO then eternal glory for us haha
LaHair
i get it, he’s older howevs – OPS of 1.070 last year and .942 year before totalling about 1000 ABs in AAA last two years. how the crap did the cubs not move Pena and at least give him a shot???
1) Hendry wanted to re-sign Pena this offseason, and felt that hanging onto him gave them a better chance of that.
2) Pena’s deal with Chicago was extremely back-loaded, and nobody wanted to get stuck with his balloon payment, lowering his trade value.
3) LaHair’s season, while solid, isn’t as good once you adjust for the PCL. LaHair’s 2012 ZiPS is only a 107 OPS+, and while that’s a good figure for a minor league lifer, it’s not the kind of performance you trade an established starter in order to get into the lineup.
by Vlad on Nov 4, 2011 1:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The payroll is so low id offer them all arb
And hope they all decline. Id rather have a comp pick than anyone we let go. If any accept just move them at the deadline for literally anything.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Nov 3, 2011 9:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The problem is
that Ludwick and Snyder would both wind up getting $6-7M through arbitration and both would take that money. So we wouldn’t wind up getting picks for those two, we’d get a $7M backup outfielder and a $6M catcher coming off major back surgery. Is that really how you want this team to spend $13M+ this offseason?
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Offer arb to all four
Is the best plan in my opinion, although I do understand why they might be loathe to offer it to Snyder. The other three however should be offered. Remember last year’s draft, when there were 50 something picks between the pirates first and second picks? This is how you make up ground, grabbing comp picks. Charlie just mentioned the lack of outfield depth in his post, there is room for Ludwick if he accepts it, on the roster and on the payroll. Who knows, they might even be able to flip him for something at the deadline. Remember though, this assuming he accepts, he might not be interested in being on this team next year.
lets say Ludwick accepts arbitration and gets a $6MM salary...
thats a good deal of dough for a backup outfielder, dontcha think?
I think its a lock that Ludwigh accepts.
Not sure if we want him around for that price, whatever that would be. Snyder is in the same boat. I can see Doumit, but not those two. I would guess they don’t offer to Maholm either, since they declined the option.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and lee
forgot about lee. I think they offer it to him too.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
they wont offer maholm
no pick upside, although i suppose if it turns out someone else is going down with an injury, they might yet, but otherwise they’d just have picked up the option— he’s going to get in the 8-9 range at least if it goes to arb.
Right,
I had a brain lapse for a minute. No reason to go to arb with him.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you really think there is room for Ludwick on the roster?
If the starting OF is Cutch, Tabata and AP (which it is) that leaves you with two remaining spots for OF’s. Now you could fill that with Jones and Gorkys (who would be a perfectly capable defensive outfielder for a spot start or two) and you’d still have Marte starting in center in AAA. hopefully, he’ll be banging on the door sooner rather than later. Do you really think it’s necessary to have Ludwick as a $7M insurance policy?
Also, there’s a point when having too many comp picks stops being as advantageous (it’s really tough to sign 10 first round picks…ask Tampa). Now I don’t think the Pirates would have any trouble signing 2 comp picks and probably would be able to handle all 4 but that doesn’t mean that they should make stupid moves with their ML roster to get those extra picks.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
while i agree in principle that stupid moves for picks isnt worth it
i would like to point out that “too many comp picks stops being (as) advantageous” is not really correct. I expect you mean it from the point of view that you cant shell out 2M for each of them by taking real high ceiling talent, but you could take guys you’d really like for slot-ish in the 4th-5th rounds, if you have good scouting. Lots of top ML players do come from beyond the 5th round of the draft and while it’s not likely, its worth the flyer, if you can get the pick for no significant cost to your ML roster.
(I will note that I’m just being pedantic with that stance, though)
I agree that you could take guys for slot money
but that’s why I said they aren’t “AS advantageous.” It’s the law of diminishing returns. The first comp pick you get is great because you can afford to go overslot to get one of the tougher signs. Same thing with the second…and third…and I don’t know where the line is. Actually, it probably depends on what your draft budget is. If you’re only gonna spend $5M on the draft then the comp picks don’t really help much at all. If you’re gonna spend $50M, then you could take as many picks as they’ll give you. At some point, though, all the extra pick is doing is taking away money that you could give to another pick (well, that’s not all it’s doing but I think you’ll get my point).
While I think it’s likely that the Pirates could afford to spend whatever was needed to sign all 4 potential comp picks if they really wanted to, I think it is unlikely that, when you combine whatever added benefit the team gets from the extra pick for Ludwick with the relative waste of money from giving him $7M to be a backup OF, this would wind up being a smart move by the organization.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
If he declines and we receive a comp pick
would you be willing to loose the second round pick in free agency to pick up a higher ranked FA?
by ParrotForPresident on Nov 3, 2011 9:46 PM EDT reply actions
I’m an avid reader and am more curious on everyone’s thoughts than one I would choose. I like your opinions, for the most part, I’m just asking if you are willing to take a risk giving up that second round pick for a compensatory pick. The way I understand it, it is pretty much a wash if he declines
by ParrotForPresident on Nov 4, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
For a guy like Jose Reyes, I would, and for a guy like Ramon Hernandez or Octavio Dotel, I wouldn’t. Not all Type As are created equal, whatever Elias may think.
by Vlad on Nov 4, 2011 8:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would do it for Hernandez for a couple of reasons
First of all, I expect us to wind up with 2 sandwich picks. I think the Pirates will offer arbitration to Lee and Doumit and I don’t think either one accepts it.
Secondly, I think Hernandez will be, by a wide margin, the best catching option we will have left. Obviously, I could be wrong about this, but Tampa is not going to make a play for Hernandez because their 1st round pick is not protected and they will have no compensatory picks this year. That means that signing Ramon Hernandez would cost them their only pick in the first 85ish spots…can’t see that happening. This means they are likely to make a run at Rod Barajas who is probably the second best catching option out there. This leaves the Pirates with Hernandez, Doumit (who could still resign as a free agent) and…ummm…Matt Pagnozzi? Considering the other options and the other picks they’d have, I think going after Hernandez would be the best way to improve next years product and I don’t think it would substantially hurt a draft class that will include 3 top 50(ish) picks.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that in general it’s bad practice to give up a high draft pick in exchange for a one-year placeholder during a season in which we aren’t going to make any real effort at competing.
by Vlad on Nov 4, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Kelly Johnson wasn’t willing to sign here two years ago – what’s going to convince him to do it now?
the chance to play 2B?
and perhaps, he sees things differently now than 2 years ago, which isn’t unusual?
(what was it 2 years ago, though? IIRC, it was that the Pirates wanted him to play OF? Was it something else?)
Kevin Creagh at Pirates Prospects argued that it might be worth it to give up a pick for Hernandez because he’d be likely to bring back a pick after a year. I don’t know about that — as he acknowledged, RH is a risk to decline or retire at his age.
But I’d agree that getting sandwich round picks wouldn’t make it a good idea to give up our second-rounder. Just because we have some extra draft picks, it doesn’t mean we don’t need all the picks we can get.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 4, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I can see what you are saying
and I don’t even know if I disagree with you in principle but I think this is an unusual situation because it’s the Pirates’ only real option other than going with Fort and another in house P.O.S.. I also don’t like the idea that the Pirates are going to pass up a good, signable FA at a position of need because they don’t plan on competing in a season that is still five months away from even starting. I think the organization has reached a point where they can be smart with the draft without “punting” on their big league product. Matt Pagnozzi is a punt. Matt Pagnozzi is a pooch punt on 2nd and 2 from inside the Red Zone down by 2 with 4 seconds left.
This is not to say that the Pirates will compete for anything significant this year but signing a couple of less-than-awful free agents (Hernandez, Pena, Barmes, and Francis for example) combined with some good health and a little bit of luck (a functional Pedro Alvarez) could make this year’s team decent. They could play meaningful (for them) baseball all summer. Maybe put together a winning season. Who knows?
So the team would still have 3 day one picks in this year’s draft and would probably get a compensatory pick back for Hernandez in the 2013 draft. To me, this makes the most sense for them.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you think Todd Graham
Is going to give that shirt to Tino Sunseri for Christmas?
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Matt Pagnozzi is a punt.
Matt Pagnozzi is, to be honest, a red herring. We could pick a random AAA catcher to sign to a minor league deal and he’d give us more than we’d get from Pagnozzi.
So the team would still have 3 day one picks in this year’s draft and would probably get a compensatory pick back for Hernandez in the 2013 draft.
I don’t think we can assume that he’d stay healthy and productive enough for us to get a pick back, although it’d certainly be nice if we did.
Obviously I could be wrong
but wouldn’t Hernandez essentially have to miss the entire season to fall below Type B status? Now, of course that could happen but I think that not signing a guy, at least one who is not currently dealing with a substantial injury, because you’re afraid that he will miss the entire season is being unnecessarily cautious.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 4, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously I could be wrong but wouldn’t Hernandez essentially have to miss the entire season to fall below Type B status?
Not really, no. He could also do it by having a mildly disappointing but non-disaster season as a mostly full-timer.
Catchers get ranked by Elias based on the following categories: PA, BA, OBP, HR, RBI, F%, and assists. Hernandez was basically in a job-share last year, so he doesn’t score well on PA. He only had 36 RBI last year, which isn’t a very impressive counting total for a catcher. He’s hit .282 in 2011 and .297 in 2010, but is only a .266 hitter for his career, and with the small 2011 PT sample a full-time gig for him in 2012 in which he hit closer to his career norms would drown his 2011 BA. From there, it’d come down to the defensive numbers, which would be tough to predict on a new team.
There’s also some amount of risk that draft pick compensation might be changed in some fashion before the 2012-2013 offseason. I don’t expect that to happen, but it’s not entirely out of the question.
For whatever it's worth..
….which is nothing at all, I agree with you entirely.
Offering Lee & Doumit arbitration could bring the following results:
1) Both accept & the black holes that were 1B and catcher at the plate for much of last season are helped for 2012
2) 1 accepts and 1 declines, meaning the Bucs get a sandwich round pick and the aforementioned bolstering at 1B or catcher
3) Both decline, giving two sandwich round picks, which allows them to sign a good veteran stopgap in Hernandez and make surrendering that 2nd rounder more palatable.
If I had to arrange things in this scenario, I’d say I’d hope Lee accepts and Doumit declines and the Bucs could sign Hernandez at ~4M. 95 games of Hernandez with the others given to McKenry/Fryer to see if either can figure things out at the big league leve is, to me, an excellent way to avoid punting 2012 entirely without bank breaking signings.
Lee does have the potential to fall off a cliff, it’s true, but ideally that opposite field pull he has could boost his HR total at PNC to offset any potential decline in hitting for average he suffers.
Taking a shot in the dark at Lee arbitration numbers, it wouldn’t surprise me if his camp asked for 10 and the Bucs offered 7 and the arbitrator split the difference at 8.5.
(Obviously, all the standard caveats apply, Hernandez may not want to come here, yadda yadda yadda)
Kamerion Wimbley is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
splitting the difference doesn't happen
If it goes to the arbitrators, they have to pick either the team’s offer or the player’s.
Anyway, my guess is that Lee will decline.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 4, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, thank you
I did not know that. Still threading my way when it comes to some of the ins and outs of this kind of thing. Thanks!
I wonder if he will decline, in all honesty. 10 million is Carlos Pena money and I could see him asking for it, particularly if he thinks the Bucs would try to lowball him (say, 6 million) since he wouldnt’ be getting 10 mil anywhere else.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
All of this compensation talk proves moot
The MLBPA aims to ensure that teams no longer surrender top picks for signing Type A free agents starting this offseason.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
If depth is a concern
We should be able to pick up someone – I believe Lyle Overbay is a free agent at this time…
What does that mean?!
That's "depth," not "depths."
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
I believe that Lee, at a moderate price, wouldn’t be a terrible signing. But, like an above poster stated, that’s a price he probably wouldn’t sign at. Lee’s risk of collapse is higher than what we might like, and obviously the price of his one-year contract has to reflect. His performance with Pittsburgh last year was above his career mean (in terms of OPS).
Part of me would rather have Hague take the job. I don’t know… it’s not that I’m again spending money, it’s just that I’d rather avoiding buying something for a high price that has an above average chance of being a piece of crap. Hague seems durable, consistent, and his power has increased at every A+/AA/AAA stop. Let’s see what we have. Who doesn’t love internal options.
Who doesn’t love internal optons?
Cashman, for one
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 4, 2011 12:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t love that particular internal option, because he doesn’t have enough bat to hold the job.
by Vlad on Nov 4, 2011 1:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Best
news I’ve heard all day.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 4, 2011 12:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
that's probably only because
far too many people bought into random speculation that the Pirates wouldnt offer anyone arb.
I know!
I didn’t want to, but my buccos pessimism took over.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 4, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I dreamed that we were in the World Series playing the Yanks
Game 1 was tied at 2 after 7, but I was stuck at a concert with my wife – bored to death while I wondered who had won.
Carew, Mazeroski and Cash were all on our team; I was surprised about Carew but not that Cash and Maz were still around.
from the "you may never see this again" diaries
1B Calvin Anderson scored the Bite’s only run when he singled to lead off the top of the 2nd, stole second base, and scored on a single and a throwing error.
From Pirates Prospects.
Derrek Lee, arbitration, blah blah blah
What I want to know is why the Bucs haven’t been connected to Yu Darvish!
/boredatworksarcasm
Kamerion Wimbley is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Ya
what the balls.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 4, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
We're joking, but...
….actually found a thread on MLB.com where a few guys were saying things like “Going after Darvish makes too much sense for this front office.”
Sigh.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
No way would Darvish sign with the Pirates
He’d stay in Japan if the Pirates somehow won the posting auction.

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