justin smoak
by Alan1387 on Nov 30, 2011 12:52 AM EST
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PrintJustin Smoak maybe a good first baseman for the pirates to get if the Mariners get Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. I think he would be a good fit for the pirates is is young and is not going to be a free agent into 2017. He would be better than matt Hague and I think he got some power and could be a good bat in our lineup. This is if we could get him cheap from them.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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What are the Mariner's needs?
he’s pretty meh, but so are most other options once we get past Lee and Pena.
I dunno...
we’re pretty flush with bench guys.
by BlindSquirrel on Nov 30, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
wherever Fielder/Albert go
There might be a good young 1B displaced – and that should be our primary target to pick up on the cheap. Would like to give Smoak a shot, even though he isnt as young i hope one of them goes to the Marlins and we can snag Gaby Sanchez. Still greatly prefer C Pena too. I got the Cubs pegged to get Fielder
i would take smoak over hague
one day he could put it all together. he could end up similar to Hosmer over the long haul.
If the Mariners get Pujols or Fielder, we should probably start looking around to make sure we haven’t woken up in a strange parallel universe or a Matrix-like simulation created by an evil madman.
by Aphthakid on Nov 30, 2011 9:13 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Why?
I couldn’t see Pujols signing with them, but why not Fielder?
Prince doesn’t seem to really care too much about who he plays for, just that he’s getting paid. I mean, he was the one who said during the middle of September that this was most likely his last year in Milwaukee, which is hardly the type of news a team in the chase for the World Series wants to hear from one of their stars.
As for Smoak, why not take a flyer on him if he became available? He has a good pedigree, with some people arguing taking him over Pedro at the time, and he could probably be had relatively cheaply (but not given away).
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
ACKKKKKKK!
Reply fail to Aphthakid.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Can't believe I need to answer this...
Because the Mariners are about 20 players away from being a World Series contender, not 1 player away. They’re not going to dedicate 20% of their payroll to one guy in order to go from a 95 loss team to an 90 loss team.
He’s as likely to end up in Seattle as he is to end up in Houston or playing for the Hyundai Unicorns.
i m not sure this is true
the Ms have good current pitching, and a few guys who should be there in the next 2 years and profile as mid to top of the rotation guys.
They also have Ackley and Franklin in terms of position players (not sure what their farm depth for position player prospects are) and adding Fielder for 7 years or so gives them a solid core to build around (assuming you believe Fielder will not fall off a cliff in the next 5)
by BurgherKing on Nov 30, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Can't believe I have to answer this, but...
…in 2011 the Mariners had a payroll of approximately $80MM, of which $17MM was for one player (Ichiro), which is about 21% of their payroll.
For next year, they will have Ichiro making another $17MM and King Felix making $18.5MM, so unless their payroll is over $85MM, they will have two players making about 20% of their total payroll.
The Mariners have, for the better part of the past two decades, been star-driven (Ken Griffey Jr., A-Rod, Ichiro), and with Ichiro getting closer to the end of his career, they would probably love to have another huge name in the line-up to sell tickets. Don’t automatically assume teams will do what is smart for the on-field product when they can do what is smart for their business, which is what this is.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Fine
We can reconvene after Fielder signs.
Not saying he will, but...
…not ruling it out completely. That’s all.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Meh
I like Smoak’s switch hitting ability. In terms of salary, he’d be cheaper than GFJ who’s entering arbitration for the first time. His glove is much better than Jones’s too.
But speaking practically, to give up assets for a guy who has average power (.157 career ISO vs. Jones’s .196) and strikes out a fair bit (22.1% career K rate)….no thanks.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
OK, but...
…Smoak’s only 24-years old and has played more games in the majors than he played in the minors.
He’s basically the Mariners’ version of Pedro Alvarez, and I would bet that a lot of teams would give up assets to acquire Pedro for his potential alone. I’m not saying we give them their choice of Heredia, Taillon or Cole, but the Mariners also probably realize they might have to settle with getting something of lesser value for a prospect that, to date, has not yet panned out.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Smoak & Pedro
Smoak is the Mariners’ version of Pedro — highly touted bat from the 2008 draft who’s struggled so far — but I also think that means they’d be as reluctant to sell low on him as we would to sell low on Pedro.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 30, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Not that the F.O. should or would care what the public thinks
But I think the general fanbase would bitch like crazy about this move for two reasons.
First of all, a large portion of the fanbase is already prepared to give up on Pedro. For reasons that have already been covered ad nauseum, that is ridiculous but the opinion is out there. Getting Smoak would be almost like doing exactly what was described above…getting the Mariners’ version of Petey, who at the moment is not the most popular young Bucco.
Secondly, as you said, I doubt the M’s would be willing to sell low on Smoak because he still has potential, meaning the Pirates wouldn’t be able to get him for nothing. This would also draw the ire of the general fan population because the Pirates would have to give up something of real value to get a 1B that, as of today, doesn’t seem all that impressive.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 30, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
it really depends
I also think that means they’d be as reluctant to sell low on him as we would to sell low on Pedro
I mean, it’s all very well to not want to sell low, but teams do need to be evaluating whether the player is likely to turn it around. If an FO decides that Pedro (or Smoak) isn’t going to turn it around because of whatever issues, this may be as high as their value is going to get. At this point, they have tantalizing potential, and teams will be willing to give up something for them- they struggle another year —> 0 trade value!
by BurgherKing on Nov 30, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
I liked Smoak a lot at the time of the draft...
…but at this point, it doesn’t look like he’s going to be the player that I thought he’d become. I think he can still be useful – just not a star.
for sure
IF the Mariners sign a long contract for a 1B he will DEFINITELY be available. we might be able to get him for something like Robbie Grossman and that would be a deal we should make immediately
No way
A floundering prospect that is blocked at the MLB level with no other viable positions to play is not as valuable as a guy like Grossman (given his current development). If Seattle signs Fielder/Pujols, Smoak’s value will dip even further than it has due to his lack of production.
Others may disagree, but I think Curry and/or Dickerson are just as good if not better options than Smoak come 2013. Why give up one of our best prospects for a guy that may get displaced in a year?
it would take more than Grossman to GET smoak
that solves your dilemma
by white angus on Nov 30, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
If Seattle signs Fielder/Pujols, Smoak’s value will dip even further than it has due to his lack of production.
They need to use a DH, because they play in the AL, and Smoak’s athletic enough that you could maybe get away with using him in LF/RF. Particularly with a top-notch flychaser like Gutierrez to cover the gaps. RF’s obviously out until Ichiro feels like hanging ‘em up, but LF isn’t exactly filled with insurmountable obstacles right now.
They do have the Carp kid, who could arguably step in and play some 1B if they were to move Smoak without acquiring one of the big 1B FAs — do not know what Seattle’s thoughts are on him.
by insane_sanity on Nov 30, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Smoak in a corner OF
Do you think he could even fake it? He seemed stiff last year (I thought he was hurt pretty much all season) and looks like he’s timed with a sundial going 1st to 3rd. He seems adequate enough at first, but he hasn’t played there as a professional and I didn’t think he could handle an outfield spot from what I saw last season.
why cant we just wait
and see what Hague, Curry, Dickerson bring this season?
Hague should get some MLB time this year. Curry will be at AA, Dickerson will be at A+. Its not like these guys are miles away from potentially being on the MLB roster. I really think we have value in at least one of these three guys. This year should tell us a lot about each one.
Mainly, can Hague continue his general success at AAA/MLB, can Curry bounce back at AA, show the same power he did at A- and possibly be at Indy by seasons end. And along the same lines, can Dickerson put up a strong season as a college bat and move up the ladder to AA. Hague is reallllll close. If either Curry or Dickerson bust out this year, they’ll also be real close to the show. Thats two 1B prospects that haven’t really stalled out like Smoak, Id much rather give them the opportunity
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
why cant we just wait
and see what Hague, Curry, Dickerson bring this season?
Based on Hague’s track record to date, he isn’t a starting-caliber ML 1B. Curry and Dickerson, while more interesting, are probably at least a year away, and meanwhile we have a hole at the position for 2012 right now.
i know this is absolutely stretching it, but was pujols projected as a superstar hall of famer, let alone a starter, coming into the 1999 mlb draft? i really dont think so. and dare i say it, was jose bautista, based on his track record up until him going to the blue jays, said to be a starting caliber Major Leaguer in general? i dont think so. he was obviously slated as a bench guy
naming exceptions
to the rules, wont win many arguments here….just saying
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
I hate arguments like this
Yes, Pujols is a generational talent who was stolen in the 10th round. Yes, Jose Bautista went from zero to hero.
But do you have any idea how utterly rare to non-existent those types of players are? They’re the exceptions that prove the general rule.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Small correction
Pujols wasn’t drafted until the 13th round, making him a bigger steal.
That notwithstanding, your point about them being exceptions is accurate and well taken.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
oh trust me I absolutely hate when people bring up jose bautista or guys stolen in later rounds and say that we could have them. i said it because i was stating the case that alot of uneducated “baseball fans” bring up alot of times, especially pirate fans with bautista. but you are absolutely 100% correct….. “they are the exceptions that prove the general rule”
heh
I’m arguing this point on the other 1B thread. Hague has OPS’d 800 each season but 1. Has a good K rate. Power is meh, but as I said, 30 or more doubles each past 3 years, while improving on his HR numbers.
Defensively, just 33 errors at 1B in his minor league career, which includes 3,654 chances. Not bad at all. I would give you his range factor but to be honest, Idk what a “good” range factor score is.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
if the pirates 1Bman of 2012 struggles, im pretty sure Hague will get a shot
but methinks it will be a one shot only type of thing. im not convinced that NH wanted to roster Hague in the first place. hes the emergency to the emergency 1Bman.
by white angus on Nov 30, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hague has OPS’d 800 each season but 1.
A .800 OPS is not a particularly impressive performance for a college-drafted 1B.
Power is meh, but as I said, 30 or more doubles each past 3 years, while improving on his HR numbers.
I think that “meh” overstates it, particularly within a 1B context. Hague’s Isolated Power last year was only .148, and his career figure is even lower at .140. For comparison, Josh Harrison’s AAA ISO last year was .150, and Jordy Mercer’s was .146. So in terms of power production, he’s smack in between the smallest player on the 2011 Pirates roster and a glove-first shortstop. Super!
His raw doubles totals are likewise misleading because he puts balls in play in such a high percentage of his PA, due to low BB and K rates.
I agree
And I’ll bet that reasoning is part of why the Bucs are trying to convince Derrek Lee to come back as a 1 year stopgap while they evaluate those three and figure out where to go from there.
It’s why I don’t even see them trying to make a run at Carlos Pena, regardless of if he’d come here/be worth the money. He apparently wants two or three years and I just don’t see them committing that time to any 1B not currently on the roster.
I guess the FO figures that worst case scenario is a Jones/Hague platoon which would still be an upgrade over Overbay. So there’s that.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
We COULD wait...
but it doesn’t seem that there’s much interest by the Pirates FO in putting Hague on the ML 25 man roster. Neal had to be dragged through a minefield, kicking and screaming, to add him to the 40 man roster.
And that may be for a good reason.
Much as we all want to think we are experts and can project a player based on his OPS, UZR, range factor or shoe size, I somehow feel that Neal and his staff have better insight into the players that are in the system.
If they don’t see Hague as being a part of the future, they probably have a pretty sound basis for that decision.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
I don't think the Pirates see Hague as a part of the future at 1B, and he'll be lucky to see much of any time there in '12.
He didn’t play in Pgh. in Sep. just because Lee was around. And the team didn’t sign Nick Evans this week simply to provide Hague with spring training motivation.
I’m still holding out hope for something better than Jones and Evans at 1B, but I’m not counting on it.
パトリック
and a non-roster invite to ST
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I will say I could definitely see a Smoak trade happening...
…if the Mariners sign Fielder because right now the plan at 1B seems to be
1) Beg Lee to return
2) ???
And when you look at the other free agents out there…….ick.
As pointed out above, NH doesn’t seem hugely high on Hague. Jones is not an everyday 1B. The FA class once you scratch off Pujols, Fielder and Lee is a joke. That leaves a trade.
In fact, as I type this, the more I become convinced they’ll trade for a 1B if they can’t retain Lee. It just might or might not be Smoak.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
a Jones/Nick Evans platoon might be better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick
which is what we had last year.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 30, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think Overbay is available
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 1, 2011 8:21 AM EST up reply actions
He would be my top choice
Imagine if Alvarez and Smoak lived up to there potential next year together? We would have a pretty good ball club here.
Value of Smoak
How much value does Smoak have now? He appears to have average power and he’s struggled to stay healthy in his brief MLB career. He’s young, but he never flat-out raked in the minors.
career OBP in minors of .400... really good K/BB rate too
as a Major leaguer, struggled at home more than the road. odd that he hits RHP better than LHP. i would assume most switch hitters would be the reverse.
he still has a fairly good eye, some pop, and only 2 years of MLB service. the main negative would be his speed.
if smoak learns MLB pitchers, he could still have a very very good career. he’s basically Garrett Jones right now with a better eye and much higher ceiling
that being said, i dont want another garrett jones, but smoak was once the #13 prospect in the game. the pedigree is there and so is the talent
I think most switch hitters hit RHP better
IIRC, most switch hitters start at lefties, and add the right side to battle LHP. Not positive though.
by Wizard of Woz on Dec 1, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Underwhelmed by the power numbers
I remember reading about Smoak at draft time and seeing how physically large he is; I assumed he was a power guy. I never really thought twice about that until looking at his numbers recently. He was solid in the minors (that .400 OBP and even K/BB rate), but he never had any eye-popping numbers or that season where he obviously had figured it out. He looks like the player who kept advancing through levels because it was expected of him.
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